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At least 613 records · Page 34

Constraints on the IBEX Ribbon’s Origin from Its Evolution over a Solar Cycle

Abstract In 2009, the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) discovered a narrow “ribbon” of energetic neutral atom emissions across the sky with properties correlated with the solar wind latitudinal structure and the interstellar magnetic field draped around the heliosphere. It is widely believed that the ribbon is formed from the escape of heliospheric ENAs into the local interstellar medium and their eventual return as secondary ENAs. However, there is no consensus on the rate of pitch angle scattering of these PUIs before they become secondary ENAs. We test two opposing limits of scattering rates (“weak” versus “strong”) by solving a time-dependent model of the ribbon that evolves with the solar cycle, and we compare them to IBEX observations over 2009–2019. First, we find that both models qualitatively reproduce the evolution of IBEX fluxes for most of the data set, with a few exceptions, although the strong (or “spatial retention”) scattering model greatly underestimates the observed fluxes. Regardless, time dependence of fluxes cannot distinguish these models. Second, the ribbon’s geometric properties, i.e., its center and radius, are significantly different between the models. The spatial retention model reproduces the observed ribbon centers as a function of energy and time slightly better than the weak scattering model, and the spatial retention model reproduces the observed ribbon radius over energy and time almost perfectly, whereas the weak scattering model compares poorly. Our analysis favors the spatial retention mechanism as the source of the IBEX ribbon, but it requires modification to increase the flux of ENAs observed at 1 au.

Zirnstein, E. J. (ORCID:0000000172400618)↗

The Dynamics of Debris Disk Creation in Neutron Star Mergers

Abstract The detection of GW170817/AT2017gfo inaugurated an era of multimessenger astrophysics, in which gravitational-wave and multiwavelength photon observations complement one another to provide unique insight into astrophysical systems. A broad theoretical consensus exists, in which the photon phenomenology of neutron star mergers largely rests upon the evolution of the small amount of matter left on bound orbits around the black hole or massive neutron star remaining after the merger. Because this accretion disk is far from inflow equilibrium, its subsequent evolution depends very strongly on its initial state, yet very little is known about how this state is determined. Using both snapshot and tracer particle data from a numerical relativity/MHD simulation of an equal-mass neutron star merger that collapses to a black hole, we show how gravitational forces arising in a nonaxisymmetric, dynamical spacetime supplement hydrodynamical effects in shaping the initial structure of the bound debris disk. The work done by hydrodynamical forces is ∼10 times greater than that due to time-dependent gravity. Although gravitational torques prior to remnant relaxation are an order of magnitude larger than hydrodynamical torques, their intrinsic sign symmetry leads to strong cancellation; as a result, hydrodynamical and gravitational torques have a comparable effect. We also show that the debris disk’s initial specific angular momentum distribution is sharply peaked at roughly the specific angular momentum of the merged neutron star’s outer layers, a fewr g c, and identify the regulating mechanism.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

The Dynamic Assimilation Technique measures photosynthetic CO2 response curves with similar fidelity as steady-state approaches in half the time

The net CO2 assimilation (A) response to intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) is a fundamental measurement in photosynthesis and plant physiology research. The conventional A/Ci protocols rely on steady-state measurements and take 15-40 minute per measurement, limiting data resolution or biological replication. Additionally, there are several CO2 protocols employed across the literature, without clear consensus as to the optimal protocol or systematic biases in their estimations. We compared the non-steady state Dynamic Assimilation Technique (DAT) protocol and the three most used CO2 protocols in steady-state measurements, and tested whether different CO2 protocols lead to systematic differences in estimations of the biochemical limitations to photosynthesis.

A/Ci response↗

A Lagrangian analysis of pockets of open cells over the southeastern Pacific

Abstract. Pockets of open cells (POCs) have been shown to develop within closed-cell stratocumulus (StCu), and a large body of evidence suggests that the development of POCs result from changes in small-scale processes internal to the boundary layer rather than large-scale forcings. Precipitation is widely viewed as a key process important to POC development and maintenance. In this study, GOES-16 satellite observations are used in conjunction with MERRA-2 winds to track and compare the microphysical and environmental evolution of two populations of closed-cell StCu selected by visual inspection over the southeastern Pacific Ocean: one group that transitions to POCs and another comparison group (CLOSED) that does not. The high spatiotemporal resolution of the new GOES-16 data allows for a detailed examination of the temporal evolution of POCs in this region. We find that POCs tend to develop near the coast, last tens of hours, are larger than 104 km2, and often (88 % of cases) do not re-close before they exit the StCu deck. Most POCs are observed to form at night and tend to exit the StCu during the day when the StCu is contracting in area. Relative to the CLOSED trajectories, POCs have systematically larger effective radii, lower cloud drop number concentrations, a comparable conditional in-cloud liquid water path, and a higher frequency of more intense precipitation. Meanwhile, no systematic environmental differences other than boundary layer height are observed between POC and CLOSED trajectories. Interestingly, there are no differences in reanalysis aerosol optical depth between both sets of trajectories, which may lead one to the interpretation that differences in aerosol concentrations are not influencing POC development or resulting in a large number that re-close. However, this largely depends on the reanalysis treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions, and the product used in this study has no explicit handling of these important processes. These results support the consensus view regarding the importance of precipitation on the formation and maintenance of POCs and demonstrate the utility of modern geostationary remote sensing data in evaluating the POC life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

Abstract. The radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) model intercomparison project (RCEMIP) leveraged the simplicity of RCE to focus attention on moist convective processes and their interactions with radiation and circulation across a wide range of model types including cloud-resolving models (CRMs), general circulation models (GCMs), single-column models, global cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. While several robust results emerged across the spectrum of models that participated in the first phase of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-I), two points that stand out are (1) the strikingly large diversity in simulated climate states and (2) the strong imprint of convective self-aggregation on the climate state. However, the lack of consensus in the structure of self-aggregation and its response to warming is a barrier to understanding. Gaining a deeper understanding of convective aggregation and tropical climate will require reducing the degrees of freedom with which convection can vary. Therefore, we propose phase II of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-II) that utilizes a prescribed sinusoidal sea surface temperature (SST) pattern to provide a constraint on the structure of convection and move one critical step up the model hierarchy. This so-called “mock-Walker” configuration generates features that resemble observed tropical circulations. The specification of the mock-Walker protocol for RCEMIP-II is described, along with example results from one CRM and one GCM. RCEMIP-II will consist of five required simulations: three simulations with the same three mean SSTs as in RCEMIP-I but with an SST gradient and two additional simulations at one of the mean SSTs with different values of the SST gradients. We also test the sensitivity to the imposed SST gradient and the domain size. Under weak SST gradients, unforced self-aggregation emerges across the entire domain, similar to what was found in RCEMIP. As the SST gradient increases, the convective region narrows and is more confined to the warmest SSTs. At warmer mean SSTs and stronger SST gradients, low-frequency variability in the convective aggregation emerges, suggesting that simulations of at least 200 d may be needed to achieve robust equilibrium statistics in this configuration. Simulations with different domain sizes generally have similar mean statistics and convective structures, depending on the value of the SST gradient. The prescribed SST boundary condition is the only difference in the set-up between RCEMIP-II and RCEMIP-I, which enables comparison between the two; however, we also welcome participation in RCEMIP-II from models that did not participate in RCEMIP-I.

Geology↗

CMIP7 data request: impacts and adaptation priorities and opportunities

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) undertook an extensive process to gather community input and refine data requests related to impacts and adaptation applications of Earth System Model (ESM) outputs. The Impacts and Adaptation (I&A) Data Request Team worked with CMIP7 leadership to distribute an open solicitation across many communities that use climate model outputs requesting inputs for new and existing variables, the most applicable temporal characteristics, and groupings of variables that together allow for specific application opportunities. This input was then collated and translated into CMIP7 standard templates for inclusion in the broader data request, leading to 13 I&A data request opportunities, 60 variable groups and 539 unique variables sought by vulnerability, impacts, adaptation, and climate services user communities. Here, we describe these opportunities and variable groups, as well as new insights into how ESM groups can prioritize outputs that set off a chain of further analyses, ultimately informing decisions impacting society and natural systems. These include an emphasis on high-resolution outputs to allow further modeling of climate impacts at regional and local scales, improved representation of extreme weather events, enhanced accuracy of downscaling and bias-adjustment techniques, and support for more detailed assessments for decision-making in adaptation and mitigation strategies. There is also broad interest in more extensive provisioning of two-dimensional variables at the Earth's surface, prioritizing experiments that enhance our understanding of both the recent past and future scenarios, and providing outputs that allow further downscaling and bias adjustment. We emphasize that variable groups are the fundamental level at which to engage with the I&A data request, matching the scale of input and the way output provision enables specific I&A applications. Given resource constraints, we applaud CMIP7 efforts to foster strong engagement and communication between ESM groups and the I&A team to build consensus around prudent compromises in priority variables, temporal resolutions, simulation experiments, time subsets, and ensemble members.

Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studi↗

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Going beyond BEM with BEM: an insight into dynamic inflow effects on floating wind turbines

Blade element momentum (BEM) theory is the backbone of many industry-standard wind turbine aerodynamic models. To be applied to a broader set of engineering problems, BEM models have been extended since their inception and now include several empirical corrections. These models have benefitted from decades of development and refinement and have been extensively used and validated, proving their adequacy in predicting aerodynamic forces of horizontal-axis wind turbine rotors in most scenarios. However, the analysis of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) introduces new sets of challenges, especially if new-generation large and flexible machines are considered. In fact, due to the combined action of wind and waves and their interaction with the turbine structure and control system, these machines are subject to unsteady motion and thus unsteady inflow on the wind turbine's blades, which could put BEM models to the test. Consensus has not been reached on the accuracy limits of BEM in these conditions. This study contributes to the ongoing research on the topic by systematically comparing four different aerodynamic models, ranging from BEM to computational fluid dynamics, in an attempt to shed light on the unsteady aerodynamic phenomena that are at stake in FOWTs and whether BEM is able to model them appropriately. Simulations are performed on the UNAFLOW 1:75 scale rotor during imposed harmonic surge and pitch motion. Experimental results are available for these conditions and are used for baseline validation. The rotor is analyzed in both rated operating conditions and low wind speeds, where unsteady aerodynamic effects are expected to be more pronounced. Results show that BEM, despite its simplicity, can adequately model the aerodynamics of FOWTs in most conditions if augmented with a dynamic inflow model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Recombinant And Mix-Infection Finder for SARS-CoV-2 sample

The scientific and public health communities responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with sample acquisition and genome sequencing on a scale that eclipsed all prior sequencing efforts. While this can only be characterized as a resounding success story that has cemented the use of genomics for epidemiological investigations for any future infectious disease outbreak, several retrospective studies are cataloging an array of lessons learned and issues that have yet to be addressed in order to realize the full potential of genomics as a routine biosurveillance tool. We have been both developing methods to accurately assess SARS-CoV-2 genomes from complex samples, and analyzing the large volumes of international data, both at the consensus level and the raw sequencing data. During the course of our investigations and similar to other groups, we have examined COVID-19 samples with signatures from multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 and will describe some of our findings during the development of a novel workflow that incorporates detection and reporting of potential co-infection within samples and also highlights any evidence of within-host recombination.

Lo, Chien-Chi↗

Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts

Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, sharply contrast with the typically gradual development of traditional droughts. These events are triggered by a combination of low rainfall and high evaporation rates, driven by elevated temperatures, making them particularly challenging to predict and prepare for. As a relatively new concept, flash drought is not well understood, which introduces significant epistemic uncertainties regarding their nature and detection methods. This under-detection hinders planners' ability to effectively manage these events. Despite these uncertainties, flash droughts can have significant impacts, raising the question: how can decision-makers prepare for such events given the current knowledge gaps? To address this, we propose a methodological framework aimed at enhancing flash drought preparedness by guiding the selection of appropriate indicators based on their detection capabilities and the decision-makers' level of risk aversion. Our approach involves evaluating six different flash drought indicators and analyzing the level of agreement among them. Additionally, we consider the decision-makers' risk aversion, distinguishing between those who require consensus across all methods (risk-takers) and those who act based on a single method's indication (risk-averse). The insights gained from this study offer a pathway towards more informed decision-making processes regarding flash droughts, potentially mitigating their adverse effects through better preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗

Technoeconomic Analysis Round Robin of a Retrofit of the Ivanpah Concentrating Solar Plant with a Molten-Salt System with Thermal Energy Storage

While the fidelity of technoeconomic analysis (TEA) models for concentrating solar thermal systems has improved in recent years, there is a lack of consensus on the specific inputs used to forecast performance of a newly built tower system due to a lack of validations and post-mortems available to the public. This effort is a joint initiative between multiple international organizations to validate and compare their TEA models. The specific case study is a proposed retrofit of one unit of the Ivanpah Solar Energy Generating System to include molten-salt storage, replacing the steam generation system with a molten-salt receiver, salt-to-steam heat exchanger train, and new balance of plant while keeping the existing steam turbine, solar field, and interconnection in place, using plant data for calibration. This manuscript discusses several of the agreed-upon assumptions for this study as well as a preliminary analysis from prior work that motivates the study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A dynamic charge-charge interaction modulates PP2A:B56 substrate recruitment

The recruitment of substrates by the ser/thr protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A) is poorly understood, limiting our understanding of PP2A-regulated signaling. Recently, the first PP2A:B56 consensus binding motif, LxxIxE, was identified. However, most validated LxxIxE motifs bind PP2A:B56 with micromolar affinities, suggesting that additional motifs exist to enhance PP2A:B56 binding. Here, we report the requirement of a positively charged motif in a subset of PP2A:B56 interactors, including KIF4A, to facilitate B56 binding via dynamic, electrostatic interactions. Using molecular and cellular experiments, we show that a conserved, negatively charged groove on B56 mediates dynamic binding. We also discovered that this positively charged motif, in addition to facilitating KIF4A dephosphorylation, is essential for condensin I binding, a function distinct and exclusive from PP2A-B56 binding. Together, these results reveal how dynamic, charge-charge interactions fine-tune the interactions mediated by specific motifs, providing a new framework for understanding how PP2A regulation drives cellular signaling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

FRET-based dynamic structural biology: Challenges, perspectives and an appeal for open-science practices

Single-molecule FRET (smFRET) has become a mainstream technique for studying biomolecular structural dynamics. The rapid and wide adoption of smFRET experiments by an ever-increasing number of groups has generated significant progress in sample preparation, measurement procedures, data analysis, algorithms and documentation. Several labs that employ smFRET approaches have joined forces to inform the smFRET community about streamlining how to perform experiments and analyze results for obtaining quantitative information on biomolecular structure and dynamics. The recent efforts include blind tests to assess the accuracy and the precision of smFRET experiments among different labs using various procedures. These multi-lab studies have led to the development of smFRET procedures and documentation, which are important when submitting entries into the archiving system for integrative structure models, PDB-Dev. This position paper describes the current ‘state of the art’ from different perspectives, points to unresolved methodological issues for quantitative structural studies, provides a set of ‘soft recommendations’ about which an emerging consensus exists, and lists openly available resources for newcomers and seasoned practitioners. To make further progress, we strongly encourage ‘open science’ practices.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Identification of uncommon objects in containers

A system for identifying in an image an object that is commonly found in a collection of images and for identifying a portion of an image that represents an object based on a consensus analysis of segmentations of the image. The system collects images of containers that contain objects for generating a collection of common objects within the containers. To process the images, the system generates a segmentation of each image. The image analysis system may also generate multiple segmentations for each image by introducing variations in the selection of voxels to be merged into a segment. The system then generates clusters of the segments based on similarity among the segments. Each cluster represents a common object found in the containers. Once the clustering is complete, the system may be used to identify common objects in images of new containers based on similarity between segments of images and the clusters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Resilient Autonomous Wind Farms: Preprint

With the advent of an increasing number of control strategies that seek to optimize wind turbine performance on a farm-level, taking account of individual wind turbine information to achieve wind farm-level objectives has become an increasingly important goal. Methods for controlling wind turbines on an individual and farm level have seen significant development, and an abundance of new implementations for gathering and using data from turbines have created potential for novel control mechanisms which can further optimize the performance and delivery characteristics of a wind farm. A key element of making these wind farms more efficient is to develop reliable algorithms that use local sensor information that is already being collected, such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, local meteorological stations, and nearby radars/sodars/lidars. Making use of information from all wind turbines in a wind farm can enable such approaches as determining the atmospheric conditions across the farm, improving fault-finding, and enabling more efficient overall control of farm-wide optimizations through mechanisms such as wake-steering. However, these approaches typically involve a centralized communications and control center. In order to ensure the resilient operation of the farm, it is necessary to develop an approach which distributes the calculation and communication amongst multiple nodes throughout the farm. In this fashion, a redundant, robust, and secure network can be created, which can tolerate faults in calculation, communication, and even external attacks which seek to disrupt the operation of the wind farm. This paper introduces the use of the Raft Byzantine Fault Tolerance algorithm in the implementation of autonomous control of a wind farm. This implementation will allow for fault tolerance for malfunctioning nodes, sensors, transmitters, and connectors. This approach is equally extensible to account for malicious actors. It will be shown to achieve overall consensus, provided the number of faults/malicious nodes is less than 3$n$+1, where $n$ is the number of turbine cluster faults which may occur, and to be robust in the face of multiple arbitrary faults.

autonomous↗

Reliable Power Rating of Perovskite PV Modules: Preprint

As the perovskite technology is ramping up into commercialization, reliable and accurate power rating of large-size perovskite modules becomes a prominent aspect for its future deployment in the PV market. It is known that the performance calibration of perovskite PV devices is very challenging due to its complex dynamic response during a conventional current-voltage (IV) measurement. PV researchers have previously proposed several steady-state performance calibration methods to reliably extract PV efficiencies, but mostly focus on small area research-type cells. In this paper, we emphasize the importance of reliable performance calibration on large-size perovskite modules. Extending the NREL Cell and Module Performance (CMP) group’s steady-state performance calibration protocol (i.e., Asymptotic PMAX Scan) for perovskite cells to modules, we justify the necessity of reporting steady-state efficiencies for perovskite cells and discuss the challenges of applying this protocol to modules. We also present our protocol for Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT), which is a technique often used for performance calibration of perovskite cells and modules, and show a comparison between MPPT and Asymptotic PMAX. Using MPPT we demonstrate the interplay between metastability and degradation in perovskite modules, and emphasize the necessity to develop preconditioning protocols for stabilizing these devices. Our aim is to promote development of consensus protocols for performance calibration of perovskite modules, and to advance their credible power ratings, which will be beneficial to the growth of perovskite technology in the PV market.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Advanced Materials Program Summary

Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Advanced Materials Program: Provide material solutions to enable design, construction, and operation of licensable advanced reactors Including Gas-cooled Reactors, Fast Reactors, Molten Salt Reactors (solid or liquid fuel) Could be of modular design, and from 350 to 1 Mwe Conduct developmental R&D on structural materials that are best addressed by the national program Integrate program-directed work at national labs & universities and collaboration with international partners to address advanced reactor developer needs Provide qualification data (to NQA-1 or equivalent) on structural materials and develop & validate improved high temperature design methodology Utilize consensus standards organizations when appropriate (e.g., ASME, ASTM, etc.) Target resolution of issues needed for near to mid-term deployment of advanced reactors

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Status of the Fermilab Muon g - 2 Experiment

The muon anomalous magnetic moment, aµ = ( g - 2 )/2, is a low-energy observable which can be both measured and computed with very high precision, making it an excellent test of the Standard Model (SM) and a sensitive probe of new physics. Recent efforts improved the precision of both the theoretical prediction and the experimental measurement. On the theory side, the Muon g - 2 Theory Initiative, an international team of more than 130 physicists, reached in 2020 a consensus on the SM prediction for aµ. On the experimental side, the E989 Muon g - 2 Collaboration at Fermilab (FNAL) published in April 2021 a new measurement of aµ from the Run-1 dataset (2018) with 0.46 ppm precision, corroborating the previous Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) measurement and increasing the discrepancy with the SM value to 4.2 standard deviations. In this paper, I will discuss the experimental setup and report on the current status of the experiment.

Girotti, Paolo↗