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At least 613 records · Page 34

Challenges and Opportunities in Turning Large U.S. Archives of Analog Seismograms into a Modern Usable Resource

Abstract Quantitative seismology is based firmly on the analysis of actual ground motions, and the transition to digital recording in the 1980s enabled sophisticated new capabilities to extract useful results from waveforms. With some effort, these tools can also be applied to analog records. Focusing on assets available within U.S. institutions, we review the necessary steps and the challenges in enabling “data rescue”—that is, preserving the scientific information latent in large analog seismogram archives and making it usable. They include: determining what assets are available (the analog seismogram archives held by various institutions, with associated metadata on instrument responses, station locations, and timing information); developing a consensus on the top level of a triage process (which analog records most definitely should be rescued?); deciding the level of quality needed in copying original seismograms to media suitable for digitizing; assessing the relative merits of scanning and digitizing; and, the need for a community service in distributing scans and digital records, as they accumulate. The necessary level of effort can benefit from practical experience. For example, specific studies have used digitized versions of analog recordings to model earthquake sources and assess seismic hazard. Other studies have used them to gain experience with nuclear explosion signals recorded at regional distances, noting that regional signals enable explosions to be monitored down to levels much lower than those attainable teleseismically. The opportunities presented by large archives of analog seismograms include the insights they present to current and future seismologists studying earthquakes and explosions, into the practical areas of assessing seismic hazard, monitoring for test ban compliance down to low explosion yields—and prompt characterization of actual explosions should they occur, as well the traditional academic pursuit of a better understanding of earthquake physics.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Origins of quench in buffered chemical polished and low temperature baked SRF cavities

Electropolishing (EP) and buffered chemical polishing (BCP) are conventional surface preparation techniques for superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities that remove damaged material from the cavity surface. One main issue with EP and BCP treated SRF cavities is high field Q-slope (HFQS), a drop in quality factor at high gradients that limits quench field. High gradient performance in EP cavities can be improved by applying a low temperature bake (LTB), but LTB does not consistently remove HFQS in BCP cavities. There is no consensus as to the why LTB is not effective on BCP prepared cavities, and the cause of HFQS in BCP cavities is not well understood. We examine the origins of quench in EP, BCP, EP+LTB, and BCP+LTB treated SRF cavities. We also show the effect of these treatments on the onset of HFQS, heating within the cavity up to quench, concentration of free hydrogen, and surface roughness.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Design of a PIP-II Era Mu2e Experiment

We propose a design of an upgraded Mu2e experiment for the future Fermilab PIP-II era based on the muon collider front end. The consensus is that such an upgrade should provide a factor of 10 increase in the rate of stopping muons in the experimental target. The current Mu2e design is optimized for 8 kW of protons at 8 GeV. The PIP-II upgrade project is a 250-meter-long CW linac capable of accelerating a 2-mA proton beam to a kinetic energy of 800 MeV (total power 1.6 MW). This would significantly improve the Fermilab proton source to enable next-generation intensity frontier experiments. But using this 800 MeV beam poses challenges to the Mu2E experiment. Bright muon beams generated from sources designed for muon collider and neutrino factory facilities have been shown to generate two orders of magnitude more muons per proton than the current Mu2e production target and solenoid. In contrast to the current Mu2e, the muon collider design has forward-production of muons from the target.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Comparing the Effectiveness of Low Temperature Bake in EP and BCP Cavities

Electropolishing (EP) and buffered chemical polishing (BCP) are conventional surface preparation techniques for superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities. Both EP and BCP treated SRF cavities display high field Q-slope (HFQS) which degrades performance at high gradients. While high gradient performance in EP cavities can be improved by introducing oxygen via a low temperature bake (LTB) of 120^{°}C by 48 hours, LTB does not consistently remove HFQS in BCP cavities. There is no consensus as to why LTB is not effective on BCP prepared cavities. We examine quench in EP, BCP, EP+LTB, and BCP+LTB treated 1.3 GHz single-cell Nb cavities by studying the heating behavior with field using a temperature mapping system. Cavity performance is correlated to characterizations of surface impurity profile obtained via time of flight secondary ion mass spectrometry studies. We observe a difference in near surface hydrogen concentration following BCP compared to EP that may suggest that the causes of quench in EP and BCP cavities are different.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Four no-go theorems on the existence of spin and orbital angular momentum of massless bosons

The past decades have seen substantial interest in the so-called orbital angular momentum (OAM) of light, driven largely by its diverse range of applications. However, there are fundamental theoretical issues with decomposing the angular momentum of massless particles, such as photons, into spin (SAM) and orbital angular momentum parts. While the angular momentum of massive particles has a natural splitting into the Wigner SAM and OAM, there are numerous proposed splittings for photons and no consensus about which is correct. Moreover, it has been shown that most of the proposed SAM and OAM operators do not satisfy the defining commutation relations of angular momentum operators and are thus not legitimate splittings. Here, we prove that it is generally impossible to split the total angular momentum operator of massless bosons, such as photons and gravitons, into spin and orbital parts. We prove two further generalizations of this result, showing that there are no SAM-OAM splittings even if (1) the SAM operator generates non-internal symmetries or (2) if one allows the SAM and OAM operators to generate non-SO(3) symmetries.

Chern numbers↗

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clustering Analysis of Commercial Vehicles Using Automatically Extracted Features from Time Series Data

Standard of practice approaches to time series cluster analysis involve careful feature engineering, often utilizing expert input to tune and select features by hand. In many cases, expert input may not be readily available, or there may not yet exist a community consensus on the ideal features for a given application. This paper compares the results of several cluster analysis methods, using both hand selected features and those extracted automatically, when applied to large geospatial time series telematics data from commercial trucking fleets. The impacts of feature selection, dimensionality reduction, and choice of clustering algorithm on the quality of clustering results are explored. Results from this analysis confirm prior results that domain agnostic features are competitive with the hand engineered features with respect to clustering quality metrics. These results also provide new insight into the most successful strategies for identifying structure in large unstructured vehicle telematics data, and suggest that time series clustering using automatic feature extraction can be an effective approach to extract structure from large scale geospatial time series data in cases when hand selected features are not available.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Dragonstone Strategy – State of Cybersecurity in the Oil & Natural Gas Sector

The oil & natural gas (ONG) system touches every corner of the nation and increased communications & control capabilities have not only allowed for greater efficiency of system operation, but have also created a massive target for adversaries to launch cyber-attacks. Like any other heavy industrial process, the ONG system relies on a complex system of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) devices. The current state of cyber-preparedness across the ONG industry varies from organization to organization. Among the most common challenges that ONG companies face are remote locations, longlived field assets, and lacking capabilities to find and track malware on their systems. ONG companies tend to be concerned with lack of cyber-awareness from employees, risk stemming from remote access for operations & maintenance, and software vulnerabilities within third-party equipment. Various industry and government organizations are performing research and development activities to address some of these challenges, but in many cases industry stakeholders are not aware of solutions that already exist. It is clear that a need exists for a coherent, comprehensive, multi-layered strategy for assuring the security and resilience of the nation's pipeline infrastructure against cyber threats. For a variety of reasons, the general consensus from stakeholders interviewed by LLNL is that the state of cyber-security within the electric grid is currently outpacing its ONG cousin. Existing strategies for the resilience and cyber-security of the electric grid can and should be leveraged to provide immediate benefits to the ONG system. In LLNL’s view, there are two key factors currently limiting the development of necessary cyber-practices within the ONG industry: The sheer number of differing regulatory bodies and trade groups offering both standards and best-practice recommendations for ONG cyber-security makes it difficult to create a comprehensive, directed, and coherent strategy that is applicable to all players within the ONG industry. The ONG industry is unaware of potentially useful technologies that have been developed for ensuring cyber-security of other infrastructure systems, such as the electric grid. Leveraging these technologies—and the science and engineering behind them—can provide some low-hanging fruit that can greatly improve cyber-security in the ONG industry without significant investments in terms of time and money. In the months following this report, LLNL will continue to perform outreach to key oil & gas industry stakeholders in a continual effort to identify the most pressing cyber-resilience issues in the industry. This outreach will be supplemented with LLNL’s threat intelligence capabilities to begin painting a clearer picture of the overall threat landscape faced by this sector. This assessment will be threat-informed and while the strategy itself will not be classified we will leverage intelligence analysis and adversary capabilities to identify gaps in current cybersecurity practices for oil & gas pipeline systems. Recommended efforts will be compiled into a cyber-resilience roadmap for the oil & gas pipeline sector, in which LLNL will highlight priority activities to immediately improve the state of cyber-resilience in the industry.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Dragonstone Strategy Kickoff Report [Slides]

The oil & natural gas (ONG) system like any other heavy industrial process, relies on a complex system of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) devices. Cyber-preparedness varies across the ONG industry from organization to organization. Common challenges include remote locations, long-lived field assets, and insufficient capabilities to find and track malware. ONG companies tend to be concerned with lack of cyber-awareness from employees, risk stemming from remote access for operations & maintenance, and software vulnerabilities within third-party equipment. For a variety of reasons, the general consensus from stakeholders interviewed by LLNL is that the state of cybersecurity within the electric grid is currently outpacing its ONG cousin. Existing strategies for the resilience and cybersecurity of the electric grid can and should be leveraged to provide immediate benefits to the ONG system. In LLNL’s view, there are two key factors currently limiting the development of necessary cyber-practices within the ONG industry: regulatory overlap and inefficiencies, and lack of industry awareness of potentially useful technologies for solving known issues. In the months following this report, LLNL will develop a cyber-resilience roadmap for the oil & gas pipeline sector, coupling threat intelligence, industry knowledge base, and ongoing outreach

02 PETROLEUM↗

2020 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns. The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report includes an update to the baseline drawdowns for each cavern, and provides an initial assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns

02 PETROLEUM↗

Oscar Seborer: Father of the Soviet Atomic Bomb?

Seventy-five years after the end of World War II, atomic spies continue to captivate and revolt the American public. Theodore "Ted" Hall, Klaus Fuchs, and David Greenglass all committed espionage at Los Alamos during the war. It has also been conjectured that there was an unidentified spy known only by the code-name PERSEUS, but there is a growing consensus among scholars that PERSEUS never existed. However, in September 2019, historians Harvey Klehr and John Earl Haynes unmasked a fourth Los Alamos spy code-named GODSEND. His name: Oscar Seborer. When the New York Times reported the story of Seborer's treachery in November 2019, almost nothing was known about his work at the Laboratory. However, recently discovered documents in the National Security Research Center (NSRC) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) offer some clues as to what GODSEND may have stolen for Stalin.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Long Range Community Planning Process for Fusion Sciences and Plasma Physics (Final Technical Report)

This grant facilitated the APS-DPP Community Planning Process (DPP-CPP) which was a strategic planning process with the goals of identifying scientific and technological opportunities in the fields of Plasma Physics and Fusion Energy Science, and making consensus recommendations for a strategy to address these opportunities to the DOE Office of Fusion Energy Science Advisory Committee (FESAC). The DPP-CPP was initiated by the APS-DPP executive committee in order to help FESAC fulfill a charge from DOE to develop a strategic plan for the DOE Office of Fusion Energy Science (FES). In this charge, the DOE Deputy Director for Science, Dr. Stephen Binkley, requests “that the Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee (FESAC) undertake a new long-range strategic planning activity for the Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) program. The strategic planning activity - to encompass the entire FES research portfolio (namely, burning plasma science and discovery plasma science) - should identify and prioritize the research required to advance both the scientific foundation needed to develop a fusion energy source, as well as the broader FES mission to steward plasma science.” The process as set out in the proposal (and below) was successful in meeting all of its stated goals culminating in the final report to the FESAC subcommittee given the charge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluation of ASCE 4-16 and AISC 43-18 (Draft) for use in the Risk-Informed Performance-Based Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plant Structures, Systems, and Components

This report describes the assessment of ASCE Standards 4-16 and 43-18 (Draft) for use in the Risk-Informed Performance-Based (RIPB) seismic design of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) at nuclear power plants. This work was performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Regulatory Research (RES), to support potential endorsement of these industry standards for the design of nuclear power plants based on the RIPB approach. Currently, the NRC endorses a deterministic design approach for demonstrating the design adequacy of SSCs based on the Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800) and NRC Regulatory Guides. In the RIPB approach, the design criteria are developed to achieve a target performance goal, which is defined by the annual frequency of occurrence of the design basis earthquake (i.e., Seismic Design Category) and the acceptable level of structural performance (i.e., Limit State) for the SSCs. ASCE 4-16 provides methods for performing a seismic analysis of structures to obtain the seismic response of these structures (e.g., building displacements, accelerations, in-structure response spectra) which are used in the design of the SSCs. It also provides methods for performing seismic analysis of SSCs to determine the seismic demands (e.g. member forces and displacements) needed to design individual SSCs. ASCE 43-18 (Draft) provides the criteria for the seismic design of SSCs using the seismic demands developed in ASCE 4-16. The use of ASCE Standard 43-18 (Draft), along with ASCE 4-16, provides the criteria for the seismic design of the SSCs. ASCE 43-18 (DRAFT) relies on other consensus codes and standards such as ACI 349 for reinforced concrete, AISC/N690 for steel structures, ASME Section III for pressure-retaining mechanical components and Containments, and IEEE-344 for Class 1E equipment. The goal of this technical review was to assess the adequacy of the provisions in these standards for use by the NRC in developing regulatory guidance for design of SSCs in nuclear power plants, based on the RIPB approach. The research reported herein describes the basis for acceptance of the new standards and identifies areas where additional staff guidance is needed for the seismic design of SSCs at nuclear power plants. This technical review has determined that ASCE 4-16 and ASCE 43-18 (Draft) provide an appropriate framework for the seismic design of SSCs at nuclear power plants using a Risk-Informed Performance-Based approach. However, some of the criteria therein warrant exceptions, qualifications, and/or clarifications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Pit Disassembly and Processing/Oxidation Capacity (PDP) for Disposition of Surplus Plutonium at Los Alamos (FY2021 Workshop 1) [Slides]

This workshop will establish NNSA/LANL consensus on the planning basis for: updating the 2017 Life Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE) pre-conceptual estimate by identifying the specific scope elements that will be included; identifying the specific scope elements that will be included in the Line Item project; and identifying the preliminary agenda items for the next PDP workshop.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Crack Stability in Breached Fuel

This report describes the fracture mechanics formalism to evaluate the stability of cracks in a fuel cladding. Recognized consensus-body linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) was applied to identify the crack instability length, or the length at which unstable mechanical crack extension would occur, as a function of pellet swelling loading (radial strain and fraction conversion from UO 2 to U 3 O 8 ) at the local cracked cladding region for two postulated fracture toughness (K IC ) values of the cladding. The crack opening displacement (COD) and the crack opening area (COA) were also identified. This analysis informs evaluations for crack extension and the potential for pellet debris loss from the fuel rod for cases of pellet oxidation in dry storage canisters where inadvertent residual water may undergo radiolysis causing oxidizing conditions to pellets exposed to the canister environment through breached cladding.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Recommendations for Distributed Energy Resource Access Control

Cybersecurity for internet - connected Distributed Energy Resources (DER) is essential for the safe and reliable operation of the US power system. Many facets of DER cybersecurity are currently being investigated within different standards development organizations, research communities, and industry committees to address this critical need. This report covers DER access control guidance compiled by the Access Controls Subgroup of the SunSpec/Sandia DER Cybersecurity Workgroup. The goal of the group was to create a consensus - based technical framework to minimize the risk of unauthorized access to DER systems. The subgroup set out to define a strict control environment where users are authorized to access DER monitoring and control features through three steps: (a) user is identified using a proof-of-identity, (b) the user is authenticated by a managed database, (c) and the user is authorized for a specific level of access. DER access control also provides accountability and nonrepudiation within the power system control environment that can be used for forensic analysis and attribution in the event of a cyber-attack. This paper covers foundational requirements for a DER access control environment as well as offering a collection of possible policy, model, and mechanism implementation approaches for IEEE 1547-mandated communication protocols.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

GANpiler

Focal Area(s): Rather than augment or replace physical models with machine learning, we instead preserve the existing models and augment the underlying code with faster surrogate models created by generative adversarial networks (GAN). To leverage the performance optimization, we also propose a runtime system and user interfaces that allow prediction and tracking of accumulated error as well as dynamic, per-process decision making as to which model (if any) to use for each iteration. Science Challenge: This proposal sits at the nexus of two hard problems. First, climate models based on machine learning will be, by their nature, difficult to trust once their predictions begin diverging from the consensus. Second, compilers and hardware have been making only incremental performance gains for decades. GPGPUs have provided a welcome performance boost for codes that can take advantage of them, but there is no similar technology on the horizon to provide the next performance leap.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗