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At least 613 records · Page 34

Challenges in Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Neural Networks

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have not been broadly adopted in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). This paper initially reviews the main challenges in sampling from the parameter posterior of a neural network via MCMC. Such challenges culminate to lack of convergence to the parameter posterior. Nevertheless, this paper shows that a nonconverged Markov chain, generated via MCMC sampling from the parameter space of a neural network, can yield via Bayesian marginalization a valuable posterior predictive distribution of the output of the neural network. Further, classification examples based on multilayer perceptrons showcase highly accurate posterior predictive distributions. The postulate of limited scope for MCMC developments in BNNs is partially valid; an asymptotically exact parameter posterior seems less plausible, yet an accurate posterior predictive distribution is a tenable research avenue.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Status Update on the High Precision Isotopic Measurements on High Burnup LWR Fuel in 2020

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is currently investigating the feasibility of directly disposing dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs) in a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) repository. Criticality during the repository performance period (10,000 years or more) is one of the major concerns related to direct disposal of DPCs, specifically as the system undergoes degradation in the repository environment and timeframe. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is developing an as-loaded criticality analysis methodology using full (actinides + fission products) burnup credit that exploits the inherent criticality margin associated with actual canister-specific loading configuration. Burnup credit criticality analysis requires validation of the depletion/decay codes used to generate the burned isotopic inventory of an assembly by comparing the code-predicted inventory with experimentally determined isotopic data. Currently, isotopic measurement data for boiling water reactors (BWR) SNF are limited, and additional measurements will be highly beneficial for BWR burnup credit analysis, which is essential to demonstrate disposability of BWR DPCs. Moreover, new pressurized water reactor (PWR) samples of isotopic measurements will expand the PWR sample population and consequently will greatly improve sample statistics. In turn, this will reduce uncertainty in the computational determination of the isotopic composition of commercial SNF and eliminate additional penalties currently used for lack of data. As part of the isotopic analysis task, eight diverse, high burnup (HBU) samples from several PWR rods are being dissolved and isotopically analyzed to provide high-quality measurement data for PWR SNF to reducing the uncertainties associated with PWR isotopic depletion validation. The isotopics of interest focus on nuclides important to burnup credit, shielding, and decay heat in PWR SNF. Additionally, eight high burnup BWR fuel samples from the Limerick nuclear power plant have been identified for measurement to support reducing uncertainties associated with BWR isotopic depletion validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Simulation of the Microwave Emission of Multi-layered Snowpacks Using the Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory: the DMRT-ML Model

DMRT-ML is a physically based numerical model designed to compute the thermal microwave emission of a given snowpack. Its main application is the simulation of brightness temperatures at frequencies in the range 1-200 GHz similar to those acquired routinely by spacebased microwave radiometers. The model is based on the Dense Media Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory for the computation of the snow scattering and extinction coefficients and on the Discrete Ordinate Method (DISORT) to numerically solve the radiative transfer equation. The snowpack is modeled as a stack of multiple horizontal snow layers and an optional underlying interface representing the soil or the bottom ice. The model handles both dry and wet snow conditions. Such a general design allows the model to account for a wide range of snow conditions. Hitherto, the model has been used to simulate the thermal emission of the deep firn on ice sheets, shallow snowpacks overlying soil in Arctic and Alpine regions, and overlying ice on the large icesheet margins and glaciers. DMRT-ML has thus been validated in three very different conditions: Antarctica, Barnes Ice Cap (Canada) and Canadian tundra. It has been recently used in conjunction with inverse methods to retrieve snow grain size from remote sensing data. The model is written in Fortran90 and available to the snow remote sensing community as an open-source software. A convenient user interface is provided in Python.

snowpacks↗

Evaluation of a Candidate Trace Contaminant Control Subsystem Architecture: The High Velocity, Low Aspect Ratio (HVLA) Adsorption Process

Traditional gas-phase trace contaminant control adsorption process flow is constrained as required to maintain high contaminant single-pass adsorption efficiency. Specifically, the bed superficial velocity is controlled to limit the adsorption mass-transfer zone length relative to the physical adsorption bed; this is aided by traditional high-aspect ratio bed design. Through operation in this manner, most contaminants, including those with relatively high potential energy are readily adsorbed. A consequence of this operational approach, however, is a limited available operational flow margin. By considering a paradigm shift in adsorption architecture design and operations, in which flows of high superficial velocity are treated by low-aspect ratio sorbent beds, the range of well-adsorbed contaminants becomes limited, but the process flow is increased such that contaminant leaks or emerging contaminants of interest may be effectively controlled. To this end, the high velocity, low aspect ratio (HVLA) adsorption process architecture was demonstrated against a trace contaminant load representative of the International Space Station atmosphere. Two HVLA concept packaging designs (linear flow and radial flow) were tested. The performance of each design was evaluated and compared against computer simulation. Utilizing the HVLA process, long and sustained control of heavy organic contaminants was demonstrated.

Kayatin, Matthew J.↗

An Adaptable Power System with Software Control Algorithm

A low cost, flexible and modular spacecraft power system design was developed in response to a call for an architecture that could accommodate multiple missions in the small to medium load range. Three upcoming satellites will use this design, with one launch date in 1999 and two in the year 2000. The design consists of modular hardware that can be scaled up or down, without additional cost, to suit missions in the 200 to 600 Watt orbital average load range. The design will be applied to satellite orbits that are circular, polar elliptical and a libration point orbit. Mission unique adaptations are accomplished in software and firmware. In designing this advanced, adaptable power system, the major goals were reduction in weight volume and cost. This power system design represents reductions in weight of 78 percent, volume of 86 percent and cost of 65 percent from previous comparable systems. The efforts to miniaturize the electronics without sacrificing performance has created streamlined power electronics with control functions residing in the system microprocessor. The power system design can handle any battery size up to 50 Amp-hour and any battery technology. The three current implementations will use both nickel cadmium and nickel hydrogen batteries ranging in size from 21 to 50 Amp-hours. Multiple batteries can be used by adding another battery module. Any solar cell technology can be used and various array layouts can be incorporated with no change in Power System Electronics (PSE) hardware. Other features of the design are the standardized interfaces between cards and subsystems and immunity to radiation effects up to 30 krad Total Ionizing Dose (TID) and 35 Mev/cm(exp 2)-kg for Single Event Effects (SEE). The control algorithm for the power system resides in a radiation-hardened microprocessor. A table driven software design allows for flexibility in mission specific requirements. By storing critical power system constants in memory, modifying the system code for other programs is simple. These constants can be altered also by ground command, or in response to an anomolous event. All critical power system functions have backup hardware functions to prevent a software or computer glitch from propagating. A number of battery charge control schemes can be implemented by selecting the proper control terms in the code. The architecture allows the design engineer to tune the system response to various system components and anticipated load profiles without costly alterations. A design trade was made with the size, weight and power dissipation of the electronics versus the performance of the power bus to load variations. Linear, fine control is maintained with a streamlined electronics design. This paper describes the hardware design as well as the software control algorithm. The challenges of closing the system control loop digitally is discussed. Control loop margin and power system performance is presented. Lab measurements are shown and compared to the system response of a hardware model running actual flight software.

Castell, Karen↗

Cruise Propulsion System Thermal Analysis for NASA’s X-57 “Maxwell” Mod II Configuration

The X-57 “Maxwell” is NASA’s flight demonstrator for distributed electric propulsion technologies. The X-57 Mod II configuration is designed to test the electric cruise propulsion system for X-57 and features an electric cruise motor mounted in an integral nacelle on each wing. The electric motors and associated control equipment for X-57 Mod II are air-cooled; therefore, they require adequate cooling airflow to stay within temperature limits set by the X-57 project in all relevant flight conditions. A computational flow analysis was conducted to estimate the internal flow properties of the X-57 Mod II cruise nacelles in three critical flight conditions. These flow properties were then used to determine the boundary conditions for individual component thermal models, which were used to estimate individual component operating temperatures. The results indicated that the low-speed, low-altitude initial takeoff climb during hot day conditions was the sizing condition from a cooling perspective. The analysis found that the cooling flowpaths in the X-57 Mod II cruise nacelles are adequate to provide cooling to most of the components with the appropriate amount of thermal margin. The two components that are not anticipated to have the appropriate margin can be accommodated with a small (< 2°C) adjustment to the project operating limitations.

Nicholas K. Borer↗

Evaluation of Thermal Neutron Scattering Cross Section of Uranium Silicide with Ab Initio Lattice Dynamics

Uranium silicide (U 3 Si 2 ) is a candidate material for the high-density nuclear fuel in commercial light water reactors [1], [2]. Its higher uranium density, 11.3 g-U/cm3, compared to that of uranium dioxide (UO 2 ), 9.7 g-U/cm3, can improve the performance of a nuclear reactor while using low enriched uranium (LEU) and diversify the choice of cladding materials [1]–[3]. It also has a higher thermal conductivity than UO 2 , which can reduce the thermal stress on the material caused by a temperature gradient across the fuel pellet and provide a larger margin for some postulated accidents [1], [2], [4]. Furthermore, compared to U3Si, another high-density fuel candidate, it has better resistance to in-pile swelling due to less irradiation-induced rapid amorphization [1], [3]. Corresponding to its importance in nuclear engineering, many previous studies have reported the properties of U3Si2. Experiments showed that U 3 Si 2 is a paramagnetic (PM) metal, where a slight linear increase in magnetic susceptibility was measured with increasing temperature [5], [6]. In addition, thermodynamic quantities such as thermal expansion coefficient, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity were experimentally determined over a wide temperature range [1], [7], [8]. In several computational studies, ab initio atomistic simulations based on density functional theory (DFT) were performed to calculate various properties including elastic constants, electronic density of states (DOS), and phonon dispersion curves [9]–[12]. Nevertheless, thermal neutron scattering cross sections, which are critical to the prediction of the parameters in reactor physics that are ultimately related to reactor criticality, have not yet been evaluated for U3Si2. The scattering cross section can be calculated from the phonon DOS, or the energy spectrum of lattice vibrations, of the crystalline system [13], [14]. However, there is also no experimental data available for the phonon DOS of U 3 Si 2 . While some computational studies reported the phonon DOS and/or dispersion curves from ab initio simulations [9]–[12], the accuracy cannot be guaranteed because it is unclear whether the spin-polarization behavior of PM U 3 Si 2 was properly described. In the present study, the thermal neutron scattering cross section for U 3 Si 2 is evaluated for the first time by calculating the phonon DOS for U3Si2 from ab initio lattice dynamics (AILD) simulations based on DFT. First, U 3 Si 2 is modeled based on the experimental structure, and AILD simulations are performed on the modeled U3Si2 to optimize the structure. Next, AILD simulations are performed for supercells with atomic displacement to calculate Hellmann-Feynman forces. Based on the calculated forces, partial phonon DOSs for U and Si are obtained, and the thermal neutron scattering law (TSL) for U 3 Si 2 is finally evaluated. To verify the accuracy of the calculations in the present study, the calculation results are compared with experimental data on the structure and heat capacity of U3Si2 [1], [7], [8], [15].

Geometry Optimization↗

Implementation of Probabilistic Design Methodology at Tennessee State University

Engineering Design is one of the most important areas in engineering education. Deterministic Design Methodology (DDM) is the only design method that is taught in most engineering schools. This method does not give a direct account of uncertainties in design parameters. Hence, it is impossible to quantify the uncertainties in the response and the actual safety margin remains unknown. The desire for a design methodology tha can identify the primitive (random) variables that affect the structural behavior has led to a growing interest on Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM). This method is gaining more recognition in industries than in educational institutions. Some of the reasons for the limited use of the PDM at the moment are that many are unaware of its potentials, and most of the software developed for PDM are very recent. The central goal of the PDM project at Tennessee State University is to introduce engineering students to the method. The students participating in the project learn about PDM and the computer codes that are available to the design engineer. The software being used of this project is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) developed under NASA probabilistic structural analysis program. NESSUS has three different modules which make it a very comprehensive computer code for PDM. A research in technology transfer through course offering in PDM is in effect a Tennessee State University. The aim is to familiarize students with the problem of uncertainties in engineering design. Included in the paper are some projects on PDM carried out by some students and faculty. The areas this method is being applied at the moment include, Design of Gears (spur and worm); Design of Shafts; Design of Statistically Indeterminate Frame Structures; Design of Helical Springs; and Design of Shock Absorbers. Some of the current results of these projects are presented.

Onwubiko, Chinyere↗

Neural chaos: A spectral stochastic neural operator

Building surrogate models for operators with uncertainty quantification capabilities is essential for many engineering applications where randomness–such as variability in material properties, boundary conditions, and initial conditions–is unavoidable. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a go-to method for constructing stochastic surrogates in both intrusive and non-intrusive ways, and it has recently been used in the context of operator learning. However, its application becomes challenging for complex or high-dimensional processes, as achieving accuracy requires higher-order polynomials, which can increase computational demand and/or the risk of overfitting. Furthermore, PCE requires specialized treatments to manage random variables that are not independent, and these treatments may be problem-dependent or may fail with increasing complexity. Here, in this work, we adopt the same formalism as the spectral expansion used in PCE; however, we replace the classical polynomial basis functions with neural network (NN) basis functions to leverage their expressivity. To achieve this, we propose an algorithm that identifies NN-parameterized basis functions in a purely data-driven manner, without any prior assumptions about the joint distribution of the random variables involved, whether independent or dependent, or about their marginal distributions. The proposed algorithm identifies each NN-parameterized basis function sequentially, ensuring they are orthogonal with respect to the data distribution. The basis functions are constructed directly on the joint stochastic variables without requiring a tensor product structure or assuming independence of the random variables. This approach may offer greater flexibility for complex stochastic models, while simplifying implementation compared to the tensor product structures typically used in PCE to handle random vectors. This is particularly advantageous given the current state of open-source packages, where building and training neural networks can be done with just a few lines of code and extensive community support. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme through several numerical examples of varying complexity and provide comparisons with classical PCE.

Polynomial chaos expansion↗

Analytic study of orbiter landing profiles

A broad survey of possible orbiter landing configurations was made with specific goals of defining boundaries for the landing task. The results suggest that the center of the corridors between marginal and routine represents a more or less optimal preflare condition for regular operations. Various constraints used to define the boundaries are based largely on qualitative judgements from earlier flight experience with the X-15 and lifting body research aircraft. The results should serve as useful background for expanding and validating landing simulation programs. The analytic approach offers a particular advantage in identifying trends due to the systematic variation of factors such as vehicle weight, load factor, approach speed, and aim point. Limitations such as a constant load factor during the flare and using a fixed gear deployment time interval, can be removed by increasing the flexibility of the computer program. This analytic definition of landing profiles of the orbiter may suggest additional studies, includin more configurations or more comparisons of landing profiles within and beyond the corridor boundaries.

Walker, H. J.↗

Geometric Tail Approximation for Reliability and Survivability

A common problem in developing high-reliability systems is estimating the reliability for a population of components that cannot be 100% tested. The radiation survivability of a population of components is often estimated by testing a very small sample to some multiple of the required specification level, known as an overtest. Given a successful test with a sufficient overtest margin, the population of components is assumed to have the required survivability or radiation reliability. However, no mathematical justification for such claims has been crafted without making aggressive assumptions regarding the statistics of the unknown distribution. Here we illustrate a new approach that leverages geometric bounding arguments founded on relatively modest distribution assumptions to produce conservative estimates of component reliability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

bolt: A GPU-Accelerated Solver for Marginally Collisional Kinetic Physics Using a High- Resolution Constrained Transport Scheme

Collisionless and marginally collisional plasmas are very expensive to simulate due to high dimensionality and large scale separations, especially in global problems with additional length scales. bolt addresses this challenge by achieving high performance on GPUs using the arrayfire performance portability library. We have demonstrated accuracy on a range of test problems, and the bolt code paper is currently in preparation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Computational Assessment of a 3-Stage Axial Compressor Which Provides Airflow to the NASA 11- by 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel, Including Design Changes for Increased Performance

A 24 foot diameter 3-stage axial compressor powered by variable-speed induction motors provides the airflow in the closed-return 11- by 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel (11-Foot TWT) Facility at NASA Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, California. The facility is part of the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel, which was completed in 1955. Since then, upgrades made to the 11-Foot TWT such as flow conditioning devices and instrumentation have increased blockage and pressure loss in the tunnel, somewhat reducing the peak Mach number capability of the test section. Due to erosion effects on the existing aluminum alloy rotor blades, fabrication of new steel rotor blades is planned. This presents an opportunity to increase the Mach number capability of the tunnel by redesigning the compressor for increased pressure ratio. Challenging design constraints exist for any proposed design, demanding the use of the existing driveline, rotor disks, stator vanes, and hub and casing flow paths, so as to minimize cost and installation time. The current effort was undertaken to characterize the performance of the existing compressor design using available design tools and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes and subsequently recommend a new compressor design to achieve higher pressure ratio, which directly correlates with increased test section Mach number. The constant cross-sectional area of the compressor leads to highly diffusion factors, which presents a challenge in simulating the existing design. The CFD code APNASA was used to simulate the aerodynamic performance of the existing compressor. The simulations were compared to performance predictions from the HT0300 turbomachinery design and analysis code, and to compressor performance data taken during a 1997 facility test. It was found that the CFD simulations were sensitive to endwall leakages associated with stator buttons, and to a lesser degree, under-stator-platform flow recirculation at the hub. When stator button leakages were modeled, pumping capability increased by over 20 of pressure rise at design point due to a large reduction in aerodynamic blockage at the hub. Incorporating the stator button leakages was crucial to matching test data. Under-stator-platform flow recirculation was thought to be large due to a lack of seals. The effect of this recirculation was assessed with APNASA simulations recirculating 0.5, 1, and 2 of inlet flow about stators 1 and 2, modeled as axisymmetric mass flux boundary conditions on the hub before and after the vanes. The injection of flow ahead of the stators tended to re-energize the boundary layer and reduce hub separations, resulting in about 3 increased stall margin per 1 of inlet flow recirculated. In order to assess the value of the flow recirculation, a mixing plane simulation of the compressor which gridded the under-stator cavities was generated using the ADPAC CFD code. This simulation indicated that about 0.65 of the inlet flow is recirculated around each shrouded stator. This collective information was applied during the redesign of the compressor. A potential design was identified using HT0300 which improved overall pressure ratio by removing pre-swirl into rotor 1, replacing existing NASA 65 series rotors with double circular arc sections, and re-staggering rotors and the existing stators. The performance of the new design predicted by APNASA and HT0300 is compared to the existing design.

Turbomachinery↗

Analyzing Radio-Frequency Coverage for the ISS

The Interactive Coverage Analysis Tool (iCAT) is an interactive desktop computer program serving to (1) support planning of coverage, and management of usage of frequencies, of current and proposed radio communication systems on and near the International Space Station (ISS) and (2) enable definition of requirements for development of future such systems. The iCAT can also be used in design trade studies for other (both outer-space and terrestrial) communication systems. A user can enter the parameters of a communication-system link budget in a table in a worksheet. The nominal (onaxis) link values for the bit-to-noise-energy ratio, received isotropic power (RIP), carrier-to-noise ratio (C/N), power flux density (PFD), and link margin of the system are calculated and displayed in the table. Plots of field gradients for the RIP, C/N, PFD, and link margin are constructed in an ISS coordinate system, at a specified link range, for both the forward and return link parameters, and are displayed in worksheets. The forward and reverse link antenna gain patterns are also constructed and displayed. Line-of-sight (LOS) obstructions can be both incorporated into the gradient plots and displayed on separate plots.

Bolen, Steven M.↗

Solar dynamic power for the Space Station

This paper describes a computer code which provides a significant advance in the systems analysis capabilities of solar dynamic power modules. While the code can be used to advantage in the preliminary analysis of terrestrial solar dynamic modules its real value lies in the adaptions which make it particularly useful for the conceptualization of optimized power modules for space applications. In particular, as illustrated in the paper, the code can be used to establish optimum values of concentrator diameter, concentrator surface roughness, concentrator rim angle and receiver aperture corresponding to the main heat cycle options - Organic Rankine and Brayton - and for certain receiver design options. The code can also be used to establish system sizing margins to account for the loss of reflectivity in orbit or the seasonal variation of insolation. By the simulation of the interactions among the major components of a solar dynamic module and through simplified formulations of the major thermal-optic-thermodynamic interactions the code adds a powerful, efficient and economic analytical tool to the repertory of techniques available for the design of advanced space power systems.

Archer, J. S.↗

Composite blade structural analyzer (COBSTRAN) user's manual

The installation and use of a computer code, COBSTRAN (COmposite Blade STRuctrual ANalyzer), developed for the design and analysis of composite turbofan and turboprop blades and also for composite wind turbine blades was described. This code combines composite mechanics and laminate theory with an internal data base of fiber and matrix properties. Inputs to the code are constituent fiber and matrix material properties, factors reflecting the fabrication process, composite geometry and blade geometry. COBSTRAN performs the micromechanics, macromechanics and laminate analyses of these fiber composites. COBSTRAN generates a NASTRAN model with equivalent anisotropic homogeneous material properties. Stress output from NASTRAN is used to calculate individual ply stresses, strains, interply stresses, thru-the-thickness stresses and failure margins. Curved panel structures may be modeled providing the curvature of a cross-section is defined by a single value function. COBSTRAN is written in FORTRAN 77.

Aiello, Robert A.↗

Oceanic Impact: Mechanisms and Environmental Perturbations

The contents include the following: Oceanic impacts-a growing field of fundamental geoscience. Shock metamorphism on the ocean floor (numerical simulations). Numerical modeling of impact-induced modifications of the deep-sea floor. Computer modelling of the water resurge at a marine impact: the Lockne crater, Sweden. Experimental investigation of the role of water in impact vaporization chemistry. Calcareous plankton stratigraphy around the Pliocene Eltanin asteroid impact area (SE Pacific): documentation and application for geological and paleoceanographic reconstruction. Composition of impact melt debris from the Eltanin impact strewn field, Bellingshausen Sea. Iridium concentrations and abundances of meteoritic ejecta from the Eltanin impact in sediment cores from Polarstern expedition ANT XII/4. Unmelted meteoritic debris collected from Eltanin ejecta in Polarstern cores from expedition ANT XII/4. Impact tsunami-Eltanin. Ancient impact structures on modern continental shelves: The Chesapeake Bay, Montagnais, and Toms Canyon craters, Atlantic margin of North America. The Mjolnir marine impact crater porosity anomaly. Kardla (Hiiu-maa Island, Estonia) - the buried and well-preserved Ordovician marine impact structure. Long-term effect of the Kardla crater (Hiiu-maa, Estonia) on Late Ordovician carbonate sedimentation. The middle Devonian Kaluga impact crater (Russia): new interpretation of marine setting.

Gersonde, Rainer↗

A Near-Term Concept for Trajectory Based Operations with Air/Ground Data Link Communication

An operating concept and required system components for trajectory-based operations with air/ground data link for today's en route and transition airspace is proposed. Controllers are fully responsible for separation as they are today, and no new aircraft equipage is required. Trajectory automation computes integrated solutions to problems like metering, weather avoidance, traffic conflicts and the desire to find and fly more time/fuel efficient flight trajectories. A common ground-based system supports all levels of aircraft equipage and performance including those equipped and not equipped for data link. User interface functions for the radar controller's display make trajectory-based clearance advisories easy to visualize, modify if necessary, and implement. Laboratory simulations (without human operators) were conducted to test integrated operation of selected system components with uncertainty modeling. Results are based on 102 hours of Fort Worth Center traffic recordings involving over 37,000 individual flights. The presence of uncertainty had a marginal effect (5%) on minimum-delay conflict resolution performance, and windfavorable routes had no effect on detection and resolution metrics. Flight plan amendments and clearances were substantially reduced compared to today s operations. Top-of-descent prediction errors are the largest cause of failure indicating that better descent predictions are needed to reliably achieve fuel-efficient descent profiles in medium to heavy traffic. Improved conflict detections for climbing flights could enable substantially more continuous climbs to cruise altitude. Unlike today s Conflict Alert, tactical automation must alert when an altitude amendment is entered, but before the aircraft starts the maneuver. In every other failure case tactical automation prevented losses of separation. A real-time prototype trajectory trajectory-automation system is running now and could be made ready for operational testing at an en route Center in 1-2 years.

McNally, David↗