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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Swing of the Pendulum: The Chemodynamics of the Local Stellar Halo Indicate Contributions from Several Radial Merger Events

We find that the chemical abundances and dynamics of APOGEE and GALAH stars in the local stellar halo are inconsistent with a scenario in which the inner halo is primarily composed of debris from a single massive, ancient merger event, as has been proposed to explain the Gaia-Enceladus/Gaia Sausage (GSE) structure. The data contain trends of chemical composition with energy that are opposite to expectations for a single massive, ancient merger event, and multiple chemical evolution paths with distinct dynamics are present. We use a Bayesian Gaussian mixture model regression algorithm to characterize the local stellar halo, and find that the data are fit best by a model with four components. We interpret these components as the Virgo Radial Merger (VRM), Cronus, Nereus, and Thamnos; however, Nereus and Thamnos likely represent more than one accretion event because the chemical abundance distributions of their member stars contain many peaks. Although the Cronus and Thamnos components have different dynamics, their chemical abundances suggest they may be related. We show that the distinct low- and high-α halo populations from Nissen & Schuster are explained by VRM and Cronus stars, as well as some in situ stars. Because the local stellar halo contains multiple substructures, different popular methods of selecting GSE stars will actually select different mixtures of these substructures, which may change the apparent chemodynamic properties of the selected stars. We also find that the Splash stars in the Solar region are shifted to higher v $\phi$ and slightly lower [Fe/H] than previously reported.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from: Nitrification is a minor source of nitrous oxide (N2O) in an agricultural landscape and declines with increasing management intensity

The long-term contribution of nitrification to nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is poorly known and thus poorly constrained in biogeochemical models. Here, using Bayesian inference to couple 25 years of in situ N2O flux measurements with site-specific Michaelis-Menten kinetics of nitrification-derived N2O, we test the relative importance of nitrification-derived N2O across six cropped and unmanaged ecosystems along a management intensity gradient in the U.S. Midwest. We found that the maximum potential contribution from nitrification to in situ N2O fluxes was 13-17% in a conventionally fertilized annual cropping system, 27-42% in a low-input cover-cropped annual cropping system, and 52-63% in perennial systems including a late successional deciduous forest. Actual values are likely to be less than 10% of these values because of low N2O yields in cultured nitrifiers (typically 0.04 to 8% of NH3 oxidized) and competing sinks for available NH4+ in situ. Most nitrification-derived N2O was produced by ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) rather than archaea (AOA), who appeared responsible for no more than 30% of nitrification-derived N2O production in all but one ecosystem. Although the proportion of nitrification-derived N2O production was lowest in annual cropping systems, these ecosystems nevertheless produced more nitrification-derived N2O (higher Vmax) than perennial and successional ecosystems. We conclude that nitrification is minor relative to other sources of N2O in all ecosystems examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic Streamflow Datasets Derived from DOE 9505 for Select Texas Basins

This dataset is generated using a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model trained on the DOE 9505 streamflow projection ensemble. A set of 21,000 streamflow realizations are generated for the Colorado, Sabine, and Trinity river basins in Texas. Separate models are trained either using the full 9505 ensemble or a subset based on three hyperparameters: bias correction, downscaling, and hydrological model.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2010

Utilization of Hydrologic Remote Sensing Data in Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation: Current Status and Challenges

Recent advances in remote sensing technologies have enabled the monitoring and measurement of the Earth's land surface at an unprecedented scale and frequency. The myriad of these land surface observations must be integrated with the state-of-the-art land surface model forecasts using data assimilation to generate spatially and temporally coherent estimates of environmental conditions. These analyses are of critical importance to real-world applications such as agricultural production, water resources management and flood, drought, weather and climate prediction. This need motivated the development of NASA Land Information System (LIS), which is an expert system encapsulating a suite of modeling, computational and data assimilation tools required to address challenging hydrological problems. LIS integrates the use of several community land surface models, use of ground and satellite based observations, data assimilation and uncertainty estimation techniques and high performance computing and data management tools to enable the assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales of interest. This presentation will focus on describing the results, challenges and lessons learned from the use of remote sensing data for improving land surface modeling, within LIS. More specifically, studies related to the improved estimation of soil moisture, snow and land surface temperature conditions through data assimilation will be discussed. The presentation will also address the characterization of uncertainty in the modeling process through Bayesian remote sensing and computational methods.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Detection of Vegetation Trends in Highly Variable Environments After Grazing Exclusion in Mongolia

Aims: Environmental variability (e.g. in precipitation) has a large effect on vegetation dynamics, and this often makes it difficult to assess the recovery of vegetation after a disturbance. In this study, we assessed vegetation recovery trends in response to grazing exclusion while considering for the annual environmental variability. Location: Two regions with highly variable precipitation: a steppe near Mandalgobi, in Mongolia's Central Gobi province, and a desert steppe near Bulgan, in Mongolia's South Gobi province. Methods: Changes in vegetation were observed along grazing gradients at the above two sites, and vegetation thresholds were identified. We established reference plots in pre-threshold areas along the grazing gradients. We removed the impact of livestock grazing at various locations along the grazing gradients by establishing exclosures, and investigated vegetation from 2005 to 2013. We developed a smoothed hierarchical model within a Bayesian framework, and examined the effect of grazing exclusion on vegetation, focusing especially on the extent of grass cover recovery. In addition, we compared soil nutrient conditions in the reference plots and inside and outside each exclosure along the grazing gradients. Results: Temporal trends in the cover of perennial grass in each plot inside and outside of the exclosures largely coincided, irrespective of grazing intensity, and exclosure had no effect (Bulgan) or a negative effect (Mandalgobi) on vegetation recovery. Soil nutrient content was not significantly affected by exclosure at a given distance from the grazing source, but decreased significantly with decreasing grazing intensity. Thus, recovery of the land from a post-threshold state may not be apparent even after 9 yr of grazing exclusion in environments with highly variable precipitation. Conclusion: The effect of exclosure duration on perennial grass cover was limited, even after controlling for environmental variability. Once a vegetation threshold has been crossed, merely removing livestock from the landscape may not be sufficient for that area to recover.

Bayesian statistics;Drought;Environmental variabil↗
NASA NTRS2020

ZTF Early Observations of Type Ia Supernovae. II. First Light, the Initial Rise, and Time to Reach Maximum Brightness

While it is clear that Type Ia supernovae (SNe) are the result of thermonuclear explosions in C/O white dwarfs (WDs), a great deal remains uncertain about the binary companion that facilitates the explosive disruption of the WD. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of a large, unique data set of 127 SNe Ia with exquisite coverage by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). High-cadence (six observations per night) ZTF observations allow us to measure the SN rise time and examine its initial evolution. We develop a Bayesian framework to model the early rise as a power law in time, which enables the inclusion of priors in our model. For a volume-limited subset of normal SNe Ia, we find that the mean power-law index is consistent with 2 in the r(ZTF)-band (a(r) = 2.01 ± 0.02), as expected in the expanding fireball model. There are, however, individual SNe that are clearly inconsistent with a(r) = 2. We estimate a mean rise time of 18.9 days (with a range extending from ∼15 to 22 days), though this is subject to the adopted prior. We identify an important, previously unknown, bias whereby the rise times for higher redshift SNe within a flux-limited survey are systematically underestimated. This effect can be partially alleviated if the power-law index is fixed to α = 2, in which case we estimate a mean rise time of 21.7 days (with a range from ∼18 to 23 days). The sample includes a handful of rare and peculiar SNe Ia. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of lessons learned from the ZTF sample that can eventually be applied to observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

A. A. Miller↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

BatteryPro: A Python Toolkit for Battery Data Analysis and Machine Learning Predictions

Analyzing battery test data for research & development can be time-consuming since battery tests often run on the order of months to years, generating large volumes of data. BatteryPro is a comprehensive Python package and software designed to facilitate advanced analysis and performance predictions for battery test data. Developed for battery researchers, it supports data types from widely used battery testing instruments, including MACCOR and Biologic cycling systems. The software provides a variety of tools for extracting and plotting key battery parameters such as time, voltage, capacity, current, and pressure. In addition to its extensive data analysis capabilities, BatteryPro features a dedicated machine learning module that employs a Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to predict battery performance and degradation. Users can generate synthetic capacity fade data, calculate fade metrics, and leverage predictive models to forecast long-term battery behavior. The software's graphical user interface (GUI) enhances usability, allowing researchers to upload, merge, and analyze multiple data files with full customizability. The GUI also supports machine learning predictions, enabling users to fit models and make predictions based on selected data and parameters. BatteryPro is built using QtDesigner, scikit-learn, matplotlib, and pandas, ensuring a high level of customization, flexibility, and accuracy in battery data analysis. This tool aims to empower researchers with the ability to perform detailed battery analysis and make informed predictions, ultimately advancing the field of battery research.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian D‐Optimal Designs for Gaussian Process Surrogate Models

Computer experiments often employ space-filling strategies to create surrogate models with strong predictive performance. The impact of model parameter estimation for Gaussian process surrogates, however, is often overlooked. Obtaining a better initial estimate of the covariance lengthscale parameter, θ, can greatly improve the resulting Gaussian process fit through more effective sequential acquisitions during active learning. In this work, we propose a novel initial design maximizing the Bayesian D-optimality criterion of the Gaussian process lengthscale parameter. Previously published results have shown the emphasis on lengthscale estimation to be promising, but relied on an empirically driven design creation process. Our Bayesian D-optimal designs are rooted in information theory and lead to more informative sequential acquisitions by improving lengthscale estimation. In many cases, these gains eventually result in better surrogates than those seeded with space-filling initial designs. Furthermore, Bayesian D-optimal designs can be tailored to either isotropic or anisotropic covariance structures, and the Bayesian framework enables the inclusion of prior knowledge in the design process, offering greater flexibility and adaptability. Through several simulation studies, we demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian D-optimal designs in terms of both lengthscale estimation accuracy and predictive performance during active learning.

Bayesian experimental design↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Estimation of the D(p,γ) 3 He Thermonuclear Reaction Rate

Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is the standard model theory for the production of the light nuclides during the early stages of the universe, taking place for a period of about 20 minutes after the big bang. Deuterium production, in particular, is highly sensitive to the primordial baryon density and the number of neutrino species, and its abundance serves as a sensitive test for the conditions in the early universe. The comparison of observed deuterium abundances with predicted ones requires reliable knowledge of the relevant thermonuclear reaction rates, and their corresponding uncertainties. Recent observations reported the primordial deuterium abundance with percent accuracy, but some theoretical predictions based on BBN are at tension with the measured values because of uncertainties in the cross section of the deuterium-burning reactions. In this work, we analyze the S-factor of the D(p,γ) 3 He reaction using a hierarchical Bayesian model. We take into account the results of eleven experiments, spanning the period of 1955--2021; more than any other study. We also present results for two different fitting functions, a two-parameter function based on microscopic nuclear theory and a four-parameter polynomial. Furthermore, our recommended reaction rates have a 2.2\% uncertainty at 0.8~GK, which is the temperature most important for deuterium BBN. Differences between our rates and previous results are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian uncertainty quantification of tristructural isotropic particle fuel silver release: Decomposing model inadequacy plus experimental noise and parametric uncertainties

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is one of the most promising fuel concepts enabling high temperature and high burnup reactor operation. One dominant source of radioactivity released from the TRISO particles is silver (Ag), which is subject to a high release fraction and long decay life compared to other fission products. Previous modeling efforts using the fuel performance code BISON indicated nonnegligible uncertainties in modeling the diffusion process of fission products in TRISO compared to the Advanced Gas Reactor experiments. The overall uncertainties observed when modeling the fission product diffusion can result from uncertainties in model parameters, noisy experimental measurements, and deficiencies in the developed models. The three types of underlying uncertainties have not yet been properly quantified in open literature. Here, this paper presents the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) using massively parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers. The uncertainties due to model parameters, model inadequacy, and experimental measurement noise are quantified, with the σ term used to represent the sum of the model inadequacy and measurement noise uncertainties. It is worth noting that this is the first time the σ term is inferred for nuclear fuel experiments, as compared to using prescribed values for uncertainty quantification in previous work. The parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers efficiently infer the model parameters and the σ term, giving insight into physical parameters like diffusion coefficients and the combined model discrepancy and measurement noise. A subsequent forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) is also performed based on the calibration results to generate more accurate predictions of the Ag release. The model inadequacy plus experimental noise is the most dominant source of uncertainty compared to the parametric uncertainty. All the UQ analyses presented in this work are based on the second series of the irradiation experiments in the Advanced Gas Reactor program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS): The AGN catalog and its X-ray spectral properties

The eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey (eFEDS), observed with eROSITA ahead of its planned 4-yr all-sky survey, is the largest contiguous-field X-ray survey at present. It yielded a large sample of X-ray sources with very rich multiband photometric and spectroscopic coverage. We present here the eFEDS active galactic nuclei (AGN) catalog and the eROSITA X-ray spectral properties of the eFEDS sources. Using a Bayesian method, we performed a systematic X-ray spectral analysis for all the eFEDS sources. We adopted multiple spectral models, including single-component power-law or hot-plasma models and double-component models of a power law plus soft excess. We investigated the capacity of eROSITA X-ray spectra for constraining AGN spectral shapes through a detailed analysis of the posterior parameter probability distribution functions. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling was used to recover the spectral parameter distribution of the sample. The source fluxes and luminosities were measured from the posterior of the spectral fitting. The eFEDS AGN catalog (22 079 sources) comprises ~80% of the eFEDS point sources. Despite a large number of faint sources, our spectral fitting provides reasonable measurements of spectral shapes and intrinsic luminosities for a majority of the sources. Because of sample selection bias, this AGN catalog is dominated by X-ray unobscured sources, with an obscured (logN H > 21.5) fraction of 8%; the power-law emission of the hot corona is also relatively soft, with a typical slope of 2.0. For type-I AGN, the X-ray emission is well correlated with the UV emission with the usual anticorrelation between the X-ray to UV spectral slope α OX and the UV luminosity. The X-ray spectral properties measured with various models are presented for all the eFEDS sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Bayesian approach to tracking patients having changing pharmacokinetic parameters

This paper considers the updating of Bayesian posterior densities for pharmacokinetic models associated with patients having changing parameter values. For estimation purposes it is proposed to use the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) estimation algorithm, which is currently a popular algorithm in the aerospace community for tracking maneuvering targets. The IMM algorithm is described, and compared to the multiple model (MM) and Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) Bayesian estimation methods, which are presently used for posterior updating when pharmacokinetic parameters do not change. Both the MM and MAP Bayesian estimation methods are used in their sequential forms, to facilitate tracking of changing parameters. Results indicate that the IMM algorithm is well suited for tracking time-varying pharmacokinetic parameters in acutely ill and unstable patients, incurring only about half of the integrated error compared to the sequential MM and MAP methods on the same example.

Bayes Theorem↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Bayesian supervised domain adaptation for RNA sequencing data

Abstract Motivation When learning to subtype complex disease based on next-generation sequencing data, the amount of available data is often limited. Recent works have tried to leverage data from other domains to design better predictors in the target domain of interest with varying degrees of success. But they are either limited to the cases requiring the outcome label correspondence across domains or cannot leverage the label information at all. Moreover, the existing methods cannot usually benefit from other information available a priori such as gene interaction networks. Results In this article, we develop a generative optimal Bayesian supervised domain adaptation (OBSDA) model that can integrate RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data from different domains along with their labels for improving prediction accuracy in the target domain. Our model can be applied in cases where different domains share the same labels or have different ones. OBSDA is based on a hierarchical Bayesian negative binomial model with parameter factorization, for which the optimal predictor can be derived by marginalization of likelihood over the posterior of the parameters. We first provide an efficient Gibbs sampler for parameter inference in OBSDA. Then, we leverage the gene-gene network prior information and construct an informed and flexible variational family to infer the posterior distributions of model parameters. Comprehensive experiments on real-world RNA-Seq data demonstrate the superior performance of OBSDA, in terms of accuracy in identifying cancer subtypes by utilizing data from different domains. Moreover, we show that by taking advantage of the prior network information we can further improve the performance. Availability and implementation The source code for implementations of OBSDA and SI-OBSDA are available at the following link. https://github.com/SHBLK/BSDA. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Bayesian high-throughput estimation of plasma temperature and density from emission spectroscopy

Here, this paper introduces a novel approach for automated high-throughput estimation of plasma temperature and density using atomic emission spectroscopy, integrating Bayesian inference with sophisticated physical models. We provide an in-depth examination of Bayesian methods applied to the complexities of plasma diagnostics, supported by a robust framework of physical and measurement models. Our methodology is demonstrated using experimental observations in the field of magneto-inertial fusion, focusing on individual and sequential shot analyses of the Plasma Liner Experiment at LANL. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of plasma parameter estimation and in using the analysis to reveal the deep hidden structure in the data. This study not only offers a new perspective of plasma analysis but also paves the way for further research and applications in nuclear instrumentation and related domains.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Markov framework for generalized post-event systems recovery modeling: From single to multihazards

State-dependent models can be used to represent the system recovery process as a series of stochastic transitions from lower to higher functional states. However, the applications of these models have been limited in scope and there is a lack of a generalized recovery modeling framework. A generalized framework would permit a robust forecasting of systems and system-of-systems recovery under multiple hazards, and more broadly, would contribute to community disaster preparedness. This paper develops a generalized post hazard-event recovery modeling framework based on state-dependent Markov-type processes. We then apply the proposed framework to solve a spectrum of problems that range from hind-casting single-system recovery following a single hazard event to forecasting post-event trajectories under multiple hazards and modeling the recovery of a system-of-systems. First, Markov chains are used to hind-cast the observed recovery for a portfolio of buildings affected by the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake. Next, Markov processes are used to formulate a parametric post hazard-event recovery model, which can be updated using Bayesian statistics when relevant datasets become available. Semi-Markov processes are then used to develop a more general model of single hazard recovery, which accounts for the intensity of the loading and level of damage caused by the event. Semi-Markov processes with non-renewal features are then used to account for multihazard interactions in a post-event recovery model, and applied to a case study that involves a community in Charleston, South Carolina. Lastly, Markov-type processes are combined with Bayesian networks to model the recovery of residential, commercial, educational, and industrial buildings (system-of-systems) following a hazard event. Overall, these applications demonstrate the versatility of the Markov framework towards handling recovery problems with varying levels of complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗