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At least 613 records · Page 34

Lowering the computational barrier: Partially Bayesian neural networks for transparency in medical imaging AI

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) can provide clinicians with fast and accurate predictions that are highly valuable for high-stakes medical decision-making, such as in brain tumor segmentation and treatment planning. However, these models largely lack transparency about the uncertainty in their predictions, potentially giving clinicians a false sense of reliability that may lead to grave consequences in patient care. Growing calls for Transparent and Responsible AI have promoted Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) to capture and communicate uncertainty in a systematic and principled manner. However, traditional Bayesian UQ methods remain prohibitively costly for large, million-dimensional tumor segmentation DNNs such as the U-Net. In this work, we discuss a computationally-efficient UQ approach via the partially Bayesian neural networks (pBNN). In pBNN, only a single layer, strategically selected based on gradient-based sensitivity analysis, is targeted for Bayesian inference. We illustrate the effectiveness of pBNN in capturing the full uncertainty for a 7.8-million parameter U-Net. We also demonstrate how practitioners and model developers can use the pBNN's predictions to better understand the model's capabilities and behavior.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sparse Bayesian Regression with Integrated Feature Selection for Nuclear Reactor Analysis

High-dimensional, nonlinear function estimation using large datasets is a current area of interest in the machine learning community, and applications may be found throughout the analytical sciences, where ever-growing datasets are making more information available to the analyst. In this paper, we leverage the existing relevance vector machine, a sparse Bayesian version of the well-studied support vector machine, and expand the method to include integrated feature selection and automatic function shaping. These innovations produce an algorithm that is able to distinguish variables that are useful for making predictions of a response from variables that are unrelated or confusing. We test the technology using synthetic data, conduct initial performance studies, and develop a model capable of making position-independent predictions of the coreaveraged burnup using a single specimen drawn randomly from a nuclear reactor core.

Dayman, Ken J↗

A compact x-ray spectrometer for measurements of electron temperature distributions in inertial confinement fusion implosions at OMEGA

The Wedge Range Filter (WRF), commonly used for proton spectroscopy at the OMEGA Laser Facility and National Ignition Facility, is adapted to measure the x-ray continuum spectrum through transmission measurement using a continuous-gradient filter. Continuum x rays emitted from the hotspot of an implosion contain information about the plasma composition and electron temperature. The WRF data are leveraged to probe this distribution, specifically the electron temperature distribution. In this work, the data recorded with the WRF are forward modeled using a temperature distribution model folded with the WRF response function. An uncertainty analysis is conducted through a Bayesian regression algorithm using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. This analysis enables the uncertainties in the instrument response to be folded into the uncertainty estimation of the electron temperature and absolute x-ray emission. Data analysis for a series of OMEGA implosions is presented and compared with radiation hydrodynamic simulations.

Lasers↗

Intelligent Hardware-Enabled Sensor and Software Safety and Health Management for Autonomous UAS

Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) can only be deployed if they can effectively complete their mission and respond to failures and uncertain environmental conditions while maintaining safety with respect to other aircraft as well as humans and property on the ground. We propose to design a real-time, onboard system health management (SHM) capability to continuously monitor essential system components such as sensors, software, and hardware systems for detection and diagnosis of failures and violations of safety or performance rules during the ight of a UAS. Our approach to SHM is three-pronged, providing: (1) real-time monitoring of sensor and software signals; (2) signal analysis, preprocessing, and advanced on-the- y temporal and Bayesian probabilistic fault diagnosis; (3) an unobtrusive, lightweight, read-only, low-power hardware realization using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) in order to avoid overburdening limited computing resources or costly re-certi cation of ight software due to instrumentation. No currently available SHM capabilities (or combinations of currently existing SHM capabilities) come anywhere close to satisfying these three criteria yet NASA will require such intelligent, hardwareenabled sensor and software safety and health management for introducing autonomous UAS into the National Airspace System (NAS). We propose a novel approach of creating modular building blocks for combining responsive runtime monitoring of temporal logic system safety requirements with model-based diagnosis and Bayesian network-based probabilistic analysis. Our proposed research program includes both developing this novel approach and demonstrating its capabilities using the NASA Swift UAS as a demonstration platform.

Robotics↗

Towards Real-Time, On-Board, Hardware-Supported Sensor and Software Health Management for Unmanned Aerial Systems

For unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to be successfully deployed and integrated within the national airspace, it is imperative that they possess the capability to effectively complete their missions without compromising the safety of other aircraft, as well as persons and property on the ground. This necessity creates a natural requirement for UAS that can respond to uncertain environmental conditions and emergent failures in real-time, with robustness and resilience close enough to those of manned systems. We introduce a system that meets this requirement with the design of a real-time onboard system health management (SHM) capability to continuously monitor sensors, software, and hardware components. This system can detect and diagnose failures and violations of safety or performance rules during the flight of a UAS. Our approach to SHM is three-pronged, providing: (1) real-time monitoring of sensor and software signals; (2) signal analysis, preprocessing, and advanced on-the-fly temporal and Bayesian probabilistic fault diagnosis; and (3) an unobtrusive, lightweight, read-only, low-power realization using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) that avoids overburdening limited computing resources or costly re-certification of flight software. We call this approach rt-R2U2, a name derived from its requirements. Our implementation provides a novel approach of combining modular building blocks, integrating responsive runtime monitoring of temporal logic system safety requirements with model-based diagnosis and Bayesian network-based probabilistic analysis. We demonstrate this approach using actual flight data from the NASA Swift UAS.

Unmanned Aerial System↗

Bayesian Inference and the Effects of Varying Uncertainty Models in Charring Ablator Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Problems

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) vehicle utilized a heat shield constructed from NASA’s Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material to protect the main structure from the high enthalpy environment encountered during hypersonic atmospheric entry. During the vehicle’s descent through Martian atmosphere, multiple thermocouples embedded within the heat shield captured in-depth material temperature data that allow for studies to be conducted on current material response reconstruction tools. In the present work, material temperature data obtained from thermocouples within the MISP-4 plug (MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) Integrated Sensor Plug) are utilized in the calibration of Theoretical Ablative Composite for Open Testing (TACOT) model parameters in conjunction with NASA’s Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) through Bayesian inference where uncertainty due to parametric, modeling, and experimental sources is simultaneously quantified. Prior to the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed through computation of the robust Sobol indices in an effort to study the relationship between input space and model response and to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical inverse problem. The Bayesian inference methodology necessitates an a-priori choice to be made for the uncertainty model for which numerous possibilities are available. Across most works, however, only basic additive or multiplicative models are utilized with pre-defined magnitudes of uncertainty based on a-priori knowledge or to-be-calibrated multipliers of static covariance matrix structures. The present effort explores the effects of informed uncertainty models, ones with temporal dependence that are simultaneously calibrated through Bayesian inference, on calibrated results for parameters that make up the uncertain input space.

Sensitivity Analysis↗

An integrated data analysis tool for improving measurements on the MST RFP

Many plasma diagnostics contain complementary information. For example, the double-foil soft x-ray system (SXR) and the Thomson Scattering diagnostic (TS) on the Madison Symmetric Torus both measure electron temperature. The complementary information from these diagnostics can be combined using a systematic method based on integrated data analysis techniques, leading to more accurate and sensitive results. An integrated data analysis tool based on Bayesian probability theory was able to estimate electron temperatures that are consistent with both the SXR and TS diagnostics and more precise than either. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to increase the flexibility of the tool was implemented and benchmarked against a grid search method.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Bahamas: new analysis of type ia supernovae reveals inconsistencies with standard cosmology

We present results obtained by applying our BAyesian HierArchical Modeling for the Analysis of Supernova cosmology (BAHAMAS) software package to the 740 spectroscopically confirmed supernovae of type Ia (SNe Ia) from the “Joint Light-curve Analysis” (JLA) data set. We simultaneously determine cosmological parameters and standardization parameters, including corrections for host galaxy mass, residual scatter, and object-by-object intrinsic magnitudes. Combining JLA and Planck data on the cosmic microwave background, we find significant discrepancies in cosmological parameter constraints with respect to the standard analysis: we find Ω{sub m}=0.399±0.027, 2.8σ higher than previously reported, and w=−0.910±0.045, 1.6σ higher than the standard analysis. We determine the residual scatter to be σ{sub res}=0.104±0.005. We confirm (at the 95% probability level) the existence of two subpopulations segregated by host galaxy mass, separated at log{sub 10}(M/M{sub ⊙})=10, differing in mean intrinsic magnitude by 0.055 ± 0.022 mag, lower than previously reported. Cosmological parameter constraints, however, are unaffected by the inclusion of corrections for host galaxy mass. We find ∼4σ evidence for a sharp drop in the value of the color correction parameter, β(z), at a redshift z{sub t}=0.662±0.055. We rule out some possible explanations for this behavior, which remains unexplained.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Systems Health Monitoring: Integrating FMEA into Bayesian Networks

The foreseeable high traffic density suggests that a large number of electric propulsion systems will enter the airspace, and that they will also operate at high frequency, e.g., large number of take offs and landings per unit time. The reliability of such critical systems is therefore key to ensure high safety standards in the low-altitude airspace. Diagnostic systems, which aim at identifying incipient faults, can mitigate unexpected failures or lower-than-expected reliability by performing early fault detection by monitoring the systems. A key element of fault diagnosis is fault detection and isolation (FDI), which complexity increases with the complexity of the system itself, namely the number of subsystems and components, interactions among sub-systems, and the number of sensors available. The proposed approach leverages combination of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) integrated with Bayesian networks, thus introducing dependability structures into a diagnostic framework to aid FDI. Faults and failure events from the FMEA are mapped within a Bayesian network, where network edges replicate the links embedded within FMEAs. The integrated framework enables the fault isolation process by identifying the probability of occurrence of specific faults or root causes given evidence observed through sensor signals. In this work, sub systems of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) type vehicle like avionics, structures, power-train etc. are taken into account to show the approach at the system level. This work integrates early design phase in the development of UAM type vehicles with diagnostic tools, which are often developed later in the product life-cycle, or retrofitted at a later time on systems. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) derived for the system in the design phase is embedded within a Bayesian network (BN).

UAM↗

Forward and inverse modeling of fault transmissibility in subsurface flows

Characterizing physical properties of faults, such as their transmissibility, is crucial for performing predictive numerical simulation of subsurface flows, such as those encountered in petroleum engineering and remediation of subsurface contamination. Here, this paper provides a complete investigation of the inverse problem for fault transmissibility in subsurface flow models, under appropriate assumptions on fault structure. In particular, the following aspects are considered: 1) fault modeling and well-posedness of the forward problem; 2) finite element (FEM) discretizations of the forward problem and their rigorous a priori convergence analysis; 3) Well-posedness of the Bayesian inverse problem, FEM discretization of the infinite dimensional Bayesian inverse formulation, and its rigorous a priori analysis. Moreover, computation of the maximum a posteriori (MAP) point via fast inexact Newton-conjugate gradient optimization and a Laplace approximation of the Bayesian posterior are also presented. Numerical results illustrate the use of the proposed fault model in forward and inverse problems for subsurface flows in two dimensional domains with multiple faults.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated data analysis at TJ-II: The density profile

An integrated data analysis system based on Bayesian inference has been developed for the TJ-II stellarator. It reconstructs the electron density profile at a single time point, using data from interferometry, reflectometry, Thomson scattering, and the Helium beam, while providing a detailed error analysis. In this work, we present a novel analysis of the ambiguity inherent in profile reconstruction from reflectometry and show how the integrated data analysis approach elegantly resolves it. Several examples of the application of the technique are provided, in both low-density discharges with and without electrode biasing, and in high-density discharges with an (L-H) confinement transition.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

Geuther, Steven C.↗

Algorithms in Diffraction Profile Analysis

This chapter introduces several approaches to crystallographic structure refinement from diffraction profile data including the Rietveld method, global optimization methods, and Bayesian modeling. First, the Rietveld method and related nonlinear least squares approaches to analyzing diffraction profiles are briefly discussed. We then review the most common algorithms within global optimization as alternative methods of structure solution: grid search, simulated annealing, and genetic algorithms. As the Rietveld method is the standard tool for analyzing diffraction profile data, we catalogue its challenges and limitations. A Bayesian approach to diffraction profile analysis is presented as an alternative, along with several sampling algorithms including Gibbs sampling, variants of Metropolis sampling, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and approximate Bayesian computing. These sampling algorithms are applied to the fitting of a neutron diffraction profile from a National Institute of Standards and Technology silicon standard reference material, and their results are compared.

Singh, Susheela↗

(Meta)genomic insights into the pathogenome of Cellulosimicrobium cellulans

Despite having serious clinical manifestations, Cellulosimicrobium cellulans remain under-reported with only three genome sequences available at the time of writing. Genome sequences of C. cellulans LMG16121, C. cellulans J36 and Cellulosimicrobium sp. strain MM were used to determine distribution of pathogenicity islands (PAIs) across C. cellulans , which revealed 49 potential marker genes with known association to human infections, e.g. Fic and VbhA toxin-antitoxin system. Oligonucleotide composition-based analysis of orthologous proteins (n = 791) across three genomes revealed significant negative correlation (P < 0.05) between frequency of optimal codons ( F opt ) and gene G+C content, highlighting the G+C-biased gene conversion (gBGC) effect across Cellulosimicrobium strains. Bayesian molecular-clock analysis performed on three virulent PAI proteins (Fic; D-alanyl-D-alanine-carboxypeptidase; transposase) dated the divergence event at 300 million years ago from the most common recent ancestor. Synteny-based annotation of hypothetical proteins highlighted gene transfers from non-pathogenic bacteria as a key factor in the evolution of PAIs. Additonally, deciphering the metagenomic islands using strain MM's genome with environmental data from the site of isolation (hot-spring biofilm) revealed (an)aerobic respiration as population segregation factor across the in situ cohorts. Furthermore, using reference genomes and metagenomic data, our results highlight the emergence and evolution of PAIs in the genus Cellulosimicrobium .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Metis: A Pure Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference Library

The use of Bayesian inference in data analysis has become the standard for large scienti c experiments [1, 2]. The Monte Carlo Codes Group(XCP-3) at Los Alamos has developed a simple set of algorithms currently implemented in C++ and Python to easily perform at-prior Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian inference with pure Metropolis sampling. These implementations are designed to be user friendly and extensible for customization based on speci c application requirements. This document describes the algorithmic choices made and presents two use cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimation of stagnation performance metrics in magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments using Bayesian data assimilation

Here we present a new analysis methodology that allows for the self-consistent integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear measurements, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power detectors to determine the primary stagnation parameters, such as temperature, pressure, stagnation volume, and mix fraction in magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. The analysis uses a simplified model of the stagnation plasma in conjunction with a Bayesian inference framework to determine the most probable configuration that describes the experimental observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. We validate the approach by using a range of tests including analytic and three-dimensional MHD models. An ensemble of MagLIF experiments is analyzed, and the generalized Lawson criterion χ is estimated for all experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Kriging-Based Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of BISON Fission Gas Release Model

Nuclear reactor fuel performance analysis studies the thermo-mechanical behavior of fuel rods and verify their compliance with safety criteria under both normal operation and accidental conditions. One of the major concerns in fuel performance analysis is the behavior of the fission gases xenon and krypton in uranium dioxide fuel, which significantly affect the thermo-mechanical performance of the nuclear fuel rods employed in current LWRs. Previously, the modeling of fission gas release (FGR) in nuclear fuel performance codes have been relying on empirical models which are not applicable beyond their range of calibration. Recently a more efficient and flexible physics-based FGR and swelling model that can describe a wider range of reactor operation conditions have been implemented in fuel performance code BISON. In this work, we performed Bayesian calibration to inversely quantify the uncertainties associated with the 5 tuning parameters in BISON FGR model, based on the time-dependent FGR measurement data from Riso-AN3 benchmark. It takes around 1 hour and 40 minutes for BISON to simulate the Riso-AN3 benchmark with a moderate mesh size using 32 processors. As hundreds of thousands of BISON simulations are needed during Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, running BISON directly is not a viable solution. Therefore we propose to use Kriging-based metamodels to replace BISON during MCMC sampling. Surrogate model is an approximation of the input/output relation of a computer code/model. It is also called metamodel, response surface, emulator. Surrogate models usually take much less computational time than the original model (like BISON) while maintaining the input/output relation of the original model to a desirable accuracy. Constructing the metamodels normally requires small number of executions of the original model. Once validated, metamodels can be used to perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, Bayesian calibration, optimization, etc.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Framework for the Analysis of Deep Neural Networks in Autonomous Aerospace Applications using Bayesian Statistics

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are considered to be key components in many autonomous systems. Applications range from vision-based obstacle avoidance to intelligent/learning control and planning. Safety-critical applications as found in the aerospace domain require that the behavior of the DNN is validated and tested rigorously for safety of the autonomous system (AUS). In this paper, we present a framework to support testing of DNNs and the analysis of the network structure. Our framework employs techniques from statistical modeling and active learning to effectively generate test cases for DNN safety testing and performance analysis. We will present results of a case study on a physics-based Deep recurrent residual neural network (DR-RNN), which has been trained to emulate the aerodynamics behavior of a fixed-wing aircraft.

Deep Neural networks↗