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Project Goals: Apply MCNP6 variance reduction (VR) techniques to improve the Oktavian benchmark experiment calculations; Verify VR methods and electron transport with MCNP6.3 unstructured mesh (UM) geometry. All MCNP calculations in this poster are for mode n, p, e.
Kalman filter design and analysis are discussed, and application of the analysis to multidimensional aircraft navigation problems is considered. The application of perturbation matrices, U-D factors, and filter variance component error source percentages to avionics covariance analysis is suggested. Filter design is divided into four phases, and the procedures applied in each phase are examined.
The U.S. LHC Accelerator Research Program (LARP) and CERN are combining efforts for the HiLumi-LHC upgrade to design and fabricate 150-mm-aperture, interaction region quadrupoles with a nominal gradient of 130 T/m using Nb 3 Sn. To successfully produce the necessary long MQXF triplets, the HiLumi-LHC collaboration is systematically reducing risk and design modification by heavily relying upon the experience gained from the successful 120-mm-aperture LARP HQ program. First generation MQXF short (MQXFS) coils were predominately a scaling up of the HQ quadrupole design allowing comparable cable expansion during Nb 3 Sn formation heat treatment and increased insulation fraction for electrical robustness. A total of 13 first generation MQXFS coils were fabricated between LARP and CERN. Systematic differences in coil size, coil alignment symmetry, and coil length contraction during heat treatment are observed and likely due to slight variances in tooling and insulation/cable systems. Analysis of coil cross sections indicate that field-shaping wedges and adjacent coil turns are systematically displaced from the nominal location and the cable is expanding less than nominally designed. Lastly, a second generation MQXF coil design seeks to correct the expansion and displacement discrepancies by increasing insulation and adding adjustable shims at the coil pole and midplanes to correct allowed magnetic field harmonics.
We test a new technique for studying magnetohydrodynamic turbulence suggested by Lazarian and Pogosyan, using synthetic observations of synchrotron polarization. This paper focuses on a one-point statistics, which is termed polarization frequency analysis, that is characterized by the variance of polarized emission as a function of the square of the wavelength along a single line of sight. We adopt the ratio η of the standard deviation of the line-of-sight turbulent magnetic field to the line-of-sight mean magnetic field to depict the level of turbulence. When this ratio is large (η≫1), which characterizes a region dominated by turbulent field, or small (η≲0.2), which characterizes a region dominated by the mean field, we obtain the polarization variance 〈P{sup 2}〉∝λ{sup −2} or 〈P{sup 2}〉∝λ{sup −2−2m}, respectively. At small η, i.e., in the region dominated by the mean field, we successfully recover the turbulent spectral index from the polarization variance. We find that our simulations agree well with the theoretical prediction of Lazarian and Pogosyan. With existing and upcoming data cubes from the Low-Frequency Array for Radio Astronomy (LOFAR) and the Square Kilometer Array (SKA), this new technique can be applied to study the magnetic turbulence in the Milky Way and other galaxies.
Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.
Abstract This paper outlines a data collection and diagnostics case study involving multiple horizontal shale wells. We look at well production profiles using rate transient analysis, differences in near wellbore complexity, geologic variations within the area of interest, as well as compositional differences in the rocks based on cores obtained from within the stimulated reservoir. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site is a multi-well experiment involving stimulation of unconventional shale wells in the southeastern Midland portion of the Permian Basin. The targeted formations include both the upper as well as the middle Wolfcamp formations, also referred alternatively as Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B. Data integration and analysis shared in this paper help us understand the various geologic controls impacting well productivity, particularly the wide variance observed between the Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B formations. Rate transient analysis indicates similar system permeabilities for stimulated wells. However, we observe higher effective fracture half-lengths for upper Wolfcamp wells. Using observations from 3D seismic interpretations (such as pad scale faults) as well as petrophysical and image log data, we highlight the substantial differences in stimulation as we move along the well laterals from the heel toward the toe sections. These differences are further reconciled with observations from zones with high data density at the core locations through stimulated rock, as well as independent data such as microseismic emissions. At the test site, Wolfcamp A was found to be relatively quartz rich with significant heterogeneity whereas Wolfcamp B is richer in clay and organic content. This impacts the geomechanical characteristics of the rock mass with much higher natural fracture density in the shallower interval. Thus, the fracture growth is more uniform in the deeper interval and more heterogeneous with branching likely in upper interval. Increased complexity also leads to consistently better productivity from the wells in the shallower interval as demonstrated from RTA results. This case study is unique because it provides valuable insights from actual sampling of the stimulated zones in hydraulically fractured wells and helps understand impact of various factors that contribute toward variability in well production. The findings from this study provides insights into need for optimization of completion designs in the various Wolfcamp landing zones, such as optimization of cluster or fracture spacing in various Wolfcamp intervals. In addition, it provides a useful template for data collection and research direction in future field test sites of similar nature in unconventional reservoirs.
To assess the reliability of critical technologies like nuclear plants and infrastructure systems and improve the robustness of design, engineers have to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the system behavior accurately. However, the complexity of the problem can make standard reliability analysis algorithms prohibitively expensive, primarily due to the high computational cost of estimating the system response at each iteration. This cost can be greatly reduced by using multi-fidelity modeling and machine learning to build a surrogate model to replace the expensive response function. We propose a general and robust method for building surrogates from multiple Low Fidelity (LF) models coupled with machine learning to retain accuracy. Our framework first constructs “Corrected Low Fidelity models” (CLFs) by coupling a High Fidelity (HF) model inferred Gaussian Process correction term with each of the LF models. It then uses the correction terms to assign model probabilities to each of these CLFs in an explainable way before using them to assemble the final surrogate. No assumptions are made about the type of the LF models or their correlation with the HF model. The proposed surrogate modeling framework is used within the subset simulation algorithm (a variance-reduced MCMC-based reliability analysis algorithm) for enhanced efficiency. Additionally, an active learning step is added to the algorithm to adaptively decide when the surrogate is not sufficiently accurate, at which point the HF model is called and used to refine the surrogate. Through a frame buckling example, our method is shown to be highly efficient at reducing the expensive HF model calls while accurately estimating the failure probability.
Purpose: Diagnostic prostate biopsies are subject to sampling bias. We hypothesize that quantitative imaging with multiparametric (MP)-MRI can more accurately direct targeted biopsies to index lesions associated with highest risk clinical and genomic features. Methods: Regionally distinct prostate habitats were delineated on MP-MRI (T2-weighted, perfusion and diffusion imaging). Directed biopsies were performed on 17 habitats from 6 patients using MRI-ultrasound fusion. Biopsy location was characterized with 52 radiographic features. Transcriptome-wide analysis of 1.4 million RNA probes was performed on RNA from each habitat. Genomics features with insignificant expression values (<0.25) and interquartile range <0.5 were filtered, leaving total of 212 genes. Correlation between imaging features, genes and a 22 feature genomic classifier (GC), developed as a prognostic assay for metastasis after radical prostatectomy was investigated. Results: High quality genomic data was derived from 17 (100%) biopsies. Using the 212 ‘unbiased’ genes, the samples clustered by patient origin in unsupervised analysis. When only prostate cancer related genomic features were used, hierarchical clustering revealed samples clustered by needle-biopsy Gleason score (GS). Similarly, principal component analysis of the imaging features, found the primary source of variance segregated the samples into high (≥7) and low (6) GS. Pearson’s correlation analysis of genes with significant expression showed two main patterns of gene expression clustering prostate peripheral and transitional zone MRI features. Two-way hierarchical clustering of GC with radiomics features resulted in the expected groupings of high and low expressed genes in this metastasis signature. Conclusions: MP-MRI-targeted diagnostic biopsies can potentially improve risk stratification by directing pathological and genomic analysis to clinically significant index lesions. As determinant lesions are more reliably identified, targeting with radiotherapy should improve outcome. This is the first demonstration of a link between quantitative imaging features (radiomics) with genomic features in MRI-directed prostate biopsies. The research was supported by NIH- NCI R01 CA 189295 and R01 CA 189295; E Davicioni is partial owner of GenomeDx Biosciences, Inc. M Takhar, N Erho, L Lam, C Buerki and E Davicioni are current employees at GenomeDx Biosciences, Inc.
Radar backscatter measurements from the ocean were made at 13.9 GHz from Skylab. The radar signal increased rapidly with wind speed over the entire range of winds encountered, and for angles of incidence of 30 deg larger. Signals observed were normalized to a nominal incidence angle and to a nominal upwind observation direction, using a theoretical model that has been verified as approximately true with aircraft experiments. Observations during the summer and winter Skylab missions were treated separately because of possible differences caused by an accident to the antenna between the two sets of observations. The results are in general agreement with the theory in all cases. The objective analysis method used for determining surface-truth winds in the Skylab experiment was tested by comparing results obtained at weather ships with the observations made by the weather ships themselves. In most cases, the variance about the regression line between objective analysis and weather-ship data actually exceeded that about the regression line between objective analysis and backscatter data
Evaluation of uncertainties of geodetic parameter estimates is the problem that is not yet solved in a satisfactory way. A direct evaluation of the uncertainties derived from a least square solution is labeled "formal" and is usually biased, sometimes up to an order of magnitude. Customary, the use of formal errors for scientific analysis is discouraged. We claim that the root of the problem is neglecting off-diagonal elements in the variance-covariance matrix of the noise in the data. A careful reconstruction of the full variance-covariance matrix, including the off-diagonal terms greatly improves realism of uncertainty estimates derived from least squares. We processed the dataset of VLBI group delays and built a prior variance-covariance of the atmosphere-driven noise based on analysis of the output of NASA high-resolution numerical weather models. We found that the uncertainties of parameter estimates derived from this least square solution that uses such variance-covariance matrices become much closer to realistic errors. We consider approaches for implementation of this method in routine data analysis of space geodesy data.
From satellite observations the solar total irradiance is known to vary. Sunspot blocking, facular emission, and network emission are three identified causes for the variations. In this paper we examine several different solar indices measured over the past century that are potential proxy measures for the Sun's irradiance. These indices are (1) the equatorial solar rotation rate, (2) the sunspot structure, the decay rate of individual sunspots, and the number of sunspots without umbrae, and (3) the length and decay rate of the sunspot cycle. Each index can be used to develop a model for the Sun's total irradiance as seen at the Earth. Three solar indices allow the irradiance to be modeled back to the mid-1700s. The indices are (1) the length of the solar cycle, (2) the normalized decay rate of the solar cycle, and (3) the mean level of solar activity. All the indices are well correlated, and one possible explanation for their nearly simultaneous variations is changes in the Sun's convective energy transport. Although changes in the Sun's convective energy transport are outside the realm of normal stellar structure theory (e.g., mixing length theory), one can imagine variations arising from even the simplest view of sunspots as vertical tubes of magnetic flux, which would serve as rigid pillas affecting the energy flow patterns by ensuring larger-scale eddies. A composite solar irradiance model, based upon these proxies, is compared to the northern hemisphere temperature depatures for 1700-1992. Approximately 71% of the decadal variance in the last century can be modeled with these solar indices, although this analysis does not include anthropogenic or other variations which would affect the results. Over the entire three centuries, approx. 50% of the variance is modeled. Both this analysis and previous similar analyses have correlations of model solar irradiances and measured Earth surface temperatures that are significant at better than the 95% confidence level. To understand our present climate variations, we must place the anthropogenic variations in the context of natural variability from solar, volcanic, oceanic, and other sources.
Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.
Immobilization devices serve several purposes in radiation oncology including improved positional reproducibility and decreased patient movement. If immobilization device beam attenuation is unaccounted for in the treatment planning process, planning target volume (PTV) coverage can be compromised. A retrospective case study was performed to evaluate beam attenuation from head and neck (HN) immobilization devices in volumetric-modulated arc therapy using the Eclipse treatment planning system and the Anisotropic Analytical Algorithm. Three facilities retrospectively evaluated 15 patients with various HN carcinomas. A test plan was created from each patient's existing plan in Eclipse to include immobilization devices in the dose calculation. Plan comparisons were performed using dose-volume histograms, which assessed the maximum dose, percentage of the PTV that received 95% of the prescription dose (V{sub 95}), and dose covering 100% of the PTV (D{sub 100}). The test plan normalization values were then adjusted to match the original PTV coverage. The maximum dose difference calculated ranged from 0.3% to 4.1%. The absolute difference in V{sub 95} coverage between the HN and the test plans ranged from 0.4% to 2.3%. The difference in the D{sub 100} was more statistically significant, reporting a range of 1.2% to 71.4%. Finally, to achieve the same PTV coverage as observed in the HN plan, an adjustment to the normalization value was needed, which required a change ranging from 0.1 to 7.7. Attenuation from immobilization devices, when unaccounted for, can cause a misrepresentation of the dose delivered to the PTV. It is not a standardized practice among institutions to include immobilization devices within the body contour for dose calculations. However, with the increasing use of volumetric-modulated arc therapy for treatment of the HN region, precision is of the utmost importance, and inclusion of immobilization devices should be standardized.
Fermi Large Area Telescope data reveal an excess of GeV gamma rays from the direction of the Galactic Center and bulge. Several explanations have been proposed for this excess including an unresolved population of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) and self-annihilating dark matter. It has been claimed that a key discriminant for or against the MSP explanation can be extracted from the properties of the luminosity function describing this source population. Specifically, is the luminosity function of the putative MSPs in the Galactic Center consistent with that characterizing the resolved MSPs in the Galactic disk? To investigate this we have used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to evaluate the posterior distribution of the parameters of the MSP luminosity function describing both resolved MSPs and the Galactic Center excess. At variance with some other claims, our analysis reveals that, within current uncertainties, both data sets can be well fit with the same luminosity function.
Rapid economic growth and burgeoning population have contributed to enhanced levels of PM 2.5 concentrations in urban regions of India. Evaluation of ambient air quality facilitates the assessment of effectiveness of emission control measures and early identification of new sources. This study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of PM 2.5 concentrations in key urban areas across India, including Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, and several regional centers. Data from 2017 to 2023 was analyzed using trend analysis, cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and geostatistical interpolation to understand spatiotemporal variations and sources. The analysis reveals significant differences in spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations with high annual averages in urban regions in Indo-Gangetic plain (82–123 μg m −3 ) and relatively lower concentrations (29–46 μg m −3 ) in southern urban areas of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Delhi state had the highest 24-averaged PM 2.5 concentrations (112 μg m −3 ) followed by urban regions in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal (94 μg m −3 ). Trend analysis from 2017 to 2023 revealed an overall 2.5% decline in site-wide PM2.5 concentrations, with the exception of Ludhiana, which exhibited a consistent annual increase of 10%. Principal component analysis (PCA) attributes 30% of the variance to wintertime emissions, 13% to biomass burning, and 18% to the regional haze in the northern Indo-Gangetic Plain. Different analyses clearly demonstrates the contribution of biomass burning to pollution in Delhi and surrounding cities. Transboundary pollution to Kolkata is likely from the highly polluted region in Indo-Gangetic Plain. Coastal cities of Mumbai and Chennai has relatively lower pollution attributed to the influence of sea breeze dilution, with mostly local contribution and some potential transport from upwind industry clusters. Hyderabad also has local contribution due to high density of vehicular traffic and local small industries. This study shows that mitigation efforts targeting clusters of regions should be undertaken to curb the high PM2.5 pollution. Policy measures should be implemented both at local and the intra-state level to address shared sources and transport of pollution.
Driven by potential exponential speedups in business, security, and scientific scenarios, interest in quantum computing is surging. This interest feeds the development of quantum computing hardware, but several challenges arise in optimizing application performance for hardware metrics (e.g., qubit coherence and gate fidelity). In this work, we describe a visual analytics approach for analyzing the performance properties of quantum devices and quantum circuit optimization. Our approach allows users to explore spatial and temporal patterns in quantum device performance data and it computes similarities and variances in key performance metrics. Detailed analysis of the error properties characterizing individual qubits is also supported. We also describe a method for visualizing the optimization of quantum circuits. The resulting visualization tool allows researchers to design more efficient quantum algorithms and applications by increasing the interpretability of quantum computations.
There has been growing research interest in understanding the energy signatures of airport access and egress as air travel continues to grow. However, these findings generally focus on airport access from the perspective of air travelers rather than ground access modes by airport employees. Using a data set of employment records, this paper uses residential location data of airport employees to estimate the energy implications of employee commuting at six major US airports based on commuting mode choice information from the US Census. This analysis reveals a high degree of variance in commuting energy usage by employees between different airports.
Riverbeds are hotspots for microbially-mediated reactions that exhibit pronounced variability in space and time. It is challenging to resolve biogeochemical mechanisms in natural riverbeds, as uncontrolled settings complicate data collection and interpretation. To overcome these challenges, laboratory flumes are often used as proxies for natural riverbed systems. Flumes capture spatiotemporal variability and thus allow for controlled investigations of riverbed biogeochemistry. These investigations implicitly rely on the assumption that the flume microbiome is similar to the microbiome of natural riverbeds. However, this assumption has not been tested and it is unknown how the microbiome of a flume compares to natural aquatic settings, including riverbeds. To evaluate the fundamental assumption that a flume hosts a microbiome similar to natural riverbed systems, we used 16s rRNA gene sequencing and publicly available data to compare the sediment microbiome of a single large laboratory flume to a wide variety of natural ecosystems including lake and marine sediments, river, lake, hyporheic, soil, and marine water, and bank and wetland soils. Richness and Shannon diversity metrics, analyses of variance, Bray-Curtis dissimilarity, and analysis of the common microbiomes between flume and river sediment all indicated that the flume microbiome more closely resembled natural riverbed sediments than other ecosystems, supporting the use of flume experiments for investigating natural microbially-mediated biogeochemical processes in riverbeds.