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At least 613 records · Page 34

A Modeling Approach to Support Changeability Analysis and Management of Earth Observation Portfolios

Earth observing (EO) mission portfolios provide data on many geophysical parameters that collectively inform our understanding of the Earth system. To observe large-scale climate trends, it is important to collect data on many parameters over time. However, gaps may occur between missions due to formulation complexity, development delays, and uncertain events in operations. These gaps may impact the ability to provide sustained measurements. Developing a balanced EO mission portfolio is key to supporting study of the Earth system. Yet, decision-making at the portfolio level is a complex task because missions often address multiple parameters. Currently, the likelihood of data gaps is often assessed for an individual parameter, but decisions and events can impact data collection for many parameters. This poster introduces a modeling approach that supports management of the many parameter impacts of decisions and uncertain events. The approach provides a foundation for analyzing changeability in EO mission portfolios. Changeability analysis provides insight into a portfolio’s sensitivity to changes caused by decisions or uncertain events. The model is developed to analyze two aspects of changeability, robustness and flexibility, in EO mission portfolios. In context of these portfolios, the authors define robustness as a portfolio’s ability to provide sustained measurements despite future uncertainties, and they define flexibility as the availability of decision alternatives that contribute to parameter coverage at little detriment to the rest of the portfolio. The proposed model characterizes a portfolio’s sensitivity to change by capturing mission-parameter interconnectivity and redundancy in parameter coverage. The model can be analyzed to identify events that can create substantial gaps, thereby revealing focus areas for mitigation efforts. The model can also be analyzed to identify gap mitigation decisions that may improve parameter coverage with little detriment to the rest of the portfolio, thereby revealing favorable pathways for portfolio improvement. Developing a process for identifying these threats and opportunities will be the focus of future work. A parallel poster proposes a standard for visualizing and communicating portfolio-level impacts of decisions and uncertain events.

Lindsey Jacobson↗

Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios

The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.

Vajk, J. P.↗

Global crop production forecasting - A simulation analysis of the data system problems and their solutions

Alternative data systems for a global crop production forecasting system were studied with the aid of a unique simulation facility called the Data System Dynamic Simulator (DSDS). Information system requirements were determined and compared with existing and planned data systems, and deficiencies were identified and analyzed. A first step was to determine the data load for an operational global crop production forecasting system as a function of data frequency, crop types, biophases, cloud coverage, and number of satellites. The DSDS was used to correlate the interrelated influence of orbital parameters, crop calendars, and cloud conditions to generate global data loading profiles. Some of the more important conclusions and the main features of the simulation system are presented.

Golden, H.↗

Solar total irradiance observations by active cavity radiometers

Investigations have been conducted concerning the development of new cavity pyrheliometer for an absolute measurement of solar irradiance both in preflight testing of spacecraft and in flight experiments to measure the total solar flux. A series of instruments developed as part of this program are electrically self-calibrated cavity pyrheliometers whose mode of operation is characterized by the name Active Cavity Radiometer (ACR). The temperatures of their cavity sensors are servocontrolled, actively maintained at constant temperatures relative to their heat sinks by electrical heating. The solar irradiance is related to the International System of Units by measuring the difference in amount of electrical heating required with the cavity sensor alternately shaded and exposed to the sun. Studies conducted with the ACR are discussed. While variations of a few tenths of a percent in solar total irradiance lasting no more than a week or two have been detected, no long term trends were identified.

Willson, R. C.↗

Discrete approximations to optimal trajectories using direct transcription and nonlinear programming

A recently developed method for solving optimal trajectory problems uses a piecewise-polynomial representation of the state and control variables, enforces the equations of motion via a collocation procedure, and thus approximates the original calculus-of-variations problem with a nonlinear-programming problem, which is solved numerically. This paper identifies this method as a direct transcription method and proceeds to investigate the relationship between the original optimal-control problem and the nonlinear-programming problem. The discretized adjoint equation of the collocation method is found to have deficient accuracy, and an alternate scheme which discretizes the equations of motion using an explicit Runge-Kutta parallel-shooting approach is developed. Both methods are applied to finite-thrust spacecraft trajectory problems, including a low-thrust escape spiral, a three-burn rendezvous, and a low-thrust transfer to the moon.

Enright, Paul J.↗

Streamlined acquisition handbook

NASA has always placed great emphasis on the acquisition process, recognizing it as among its most important activities. This handbook is intended to facilitate the application of streamlined acquisition procedures. The development of these procedures reflects the efforts of an action group composed of NASA Headquarters and center acquisition professionals. It is the intent to accomplish the real change in the acquisition process as a result of this effort. An important part of streamlining the acquisition process is a commitment by the people involved in the process to accomplishing acquisition activities quickly and with high quality. Too often we continue to accomplish work in 'the same old way' without considering available alternatives which would require no changes to regulations, approvals from Headquarters, or waivers of required practice. Similarly, we must be sensitive to schedule opportunities throughout the acquisition cycle, not just once the purchase request arrives at the procurement office. Techniques that have been identified as ways of reducing acquisition lead time while maintaining high quality in our acquisition process are presented.

Source record↗

Lunar-base construction equipment and methods evaluation

A process for evaluating lunar-base construction equipment and methods concepts is presented. The process is driven by the need for more quantitative, systematic, and logical methods for assessing further research and development requirements in an area where uncertainties are high, dependence upon terrestrial heuristics is questionable, and quantitative methods are seldom applied. Decision theory concepts are used in determining the value of accurate information and the process is structured as a construction-equipment-and-methods selection methodology. Total construction-related, earth-launch mass is the measure of merit chosen for mathematical modeling purposes. The work is based upon the scope of the lunar base as described in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Office of Exploration's 'Exploration Studies Technical Report, FY 1989 Status'. Nine sets of conceptually designed construction equipment are selected as alternative concepts. It is concluded that the evaluation process is well suited for assisting in the establishment of research agendas in an approach that is first broad, with a low level of detail, followed by more-detailed investigations into areas that are identified as critical due to high degrees of uncertainty and sensitivity.

Boles, Walter W.↗

The Thiamin Pyrophosphate-Motif

Using databases the authors have identified a common thiamin pyrophosphate (TPP)-motif in the family of functionally diverse TPP-dependent enzymes. This common motif consists of multimeric organization of subunits, two catalytic centers, common amino acid sequence, and specific contacts to provide a flip-flop, or alternate site, mechanism of action. Each catalytic center [PP:PYR] is formed at the interface of the PP-domain binding the magnesium ion, pyrophosphate and aminopyrimidine ring of TPP, and the PYR-domain binding the aminopyrimidine ring of that cofactor. A pair of these catalytic centers constitutes the catalytic core [PP:PYR]* within these enzymes. Analysis of the structural elements of this catalytic core reveals novel definition of the common amino acid sequences, which are GX@&(G)@XXGQ, and GDGX25-30 within the PP- domain, and the E&(G)@XXG@ within the PYR-domain, where Q, corresponds to a hydrophobic amino acid. This TPP-motif provides a novel tool for annotation of TPP-dependent enzymes useful in advancing functional proteomics.

Dominiak, Paulina M.↗

QuEST: Qualifying Environmentally Sustainable Technologies

TEERM focuses its validation efforts on technologies that have shown promise in laboratory testing, but lack testing under realistic or field environment. Mature technologies have advantages over those that are still in the developmental stage such as being more likely to be transitioned into a working environment. One way TEERM begins to evaluate the suitability of technologies is through Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs). TRLs are a systematic metric/measurement system that supports assessments of the maturity of a particular technology and the consistent comparison of maturity between different types of technology. TEERM generally works on demonstrating/validating alternatives that fall within TRLs 5-9. In instances where a mature technology does not exist for a particular Agency application, TEERM works with technology development groups and programs such as NASA's Innovative Partnerships Program (IPP). The IPP's purpose is to identify and document available technologies in light of NASA's needs, evaluate and prioritize those technologies, and reach out to find new partners. All TEERM projects involve multiple partners. Partnering reduces duplication of effort that otherwise might occur if individuals worked their problems alone. Partnering also helps reduce individual contributors' shares of the total cost of technology validation. Through collaboration and financial commitment from project stakeholders and third-party sources, it is possible to fully fund expensive demonstration/validation efforts.

Brown, Christina↗

The Amorphous Composition of Three Mudstone Samples from Gale Crater: Implications for Weathering and Diagenetic Processes on Mars

The Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, is exploring the lowermost formation of Gale crater's central mound. Within this formation, three samples named Marimba, Quela, and Sebina have been analyzed by the CheMin X-ray diffractometer and the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) to determine mineralogy and bulk elemental chemistry, respectively. Marimba and Quela were also analyzed by the SAM (Sample Analysis at Mars) instrument to characterize the type and abundance of volatile phases detected in evolved gas analyses (EGA). CheMin data show similar proportions of plagioclase, hematite, and Ca-sulfates along with a mixture of di- and trioctahedral smectites at abundances of approximately 28, approximately 16, and approximately 18 wt% for Marimba, Quela, and Sebina. Approximately 50 wt% of each mudstone is comprised of X-ray amorphous and trace crystalline phases present below the CheMin detection limit (approximately 1 wt%). APXS measurements reveal a distinct bulk elemental chemistry that cannot be attributed to the clay mineral variation alone indicating a variable amorphous phase assemblage exists among the three mudstones. To explore the amorphous component, the calculated amorphous composition and SAM EGA results are used to identify amorphous phases unique to each mudstone. For example, the amorphous fraction of Marimba has twice the FeO wt% compared to Quela and Sebina yet, SAM EGA data show no evidence for Fe-sulfates. These data imply that Fe must reside in alternate Fe-bearing amorphous phases (e.g., nanophase iron oxides, ferrihydrite, etc.). Constraining the composition, abundances, and proposed identity of the amorphous fraction provides an opportunity to speculate on the past physical, chemical, and/or diagenetic processes which produced such phases in addition to sediment sources, lake chemistry, and the broader geologic history of Gale crater.

Achilles, C. N.↗

Multihierarchy Gaussian Process Models for Probabilistic Aerodynamic Databases using Uncertain Nominal and Off-Nominal Configuration Data

Probabilistic aerodynamic databases are a crucial component of the development lifecycle for aerospace vehicles. A key challenge when building aerodynamic databases is that most data used to construct them represent various simplifications of the real flight vehicle. For example, wind tunnel models often simplify the vehicle geometry and surface roughness characteristics, while CFD computations often make simplifications to the physics being modeled, such as fully laminar or turbulent calculations. Multifidelity data fusion models rely on a user being able to define a hierarchy of fidelity levels anchored to some "truth" data. This approach is unsatisfactory when no data can be considered to accurately reflect real flight conditions. In this work, we provide an alternative approach by presenting a consistent mathematical framework for building probabilistic aerodynamic databases in the form of a conditional probability distribution described by an ensemble of multifidelity Gaussian Processes. Instead of relying on a single hierarchy of data fidelity levels, the presented framework identifies a "nominal" configuration and potential corrections to the nominal which represent specific physical phenomena not represented in the nominal data. The nominal and correction functions themselves are constructed as multifidelity Gaussian Processes and linearly combined to form an ensemble model which fuses the uncertainties associated nominal and correction models. Results obtained using the proposed framework on a simplified Orion Crew Module wind tunnel dataset demonstrate the predictive capability of the multihierarchy framework. We further demonstrate the benefits of such a probabilistic aerodynamic database approach through function sampling and computing the conditional distributions of derived quantities, such as the trim angle of attack and aerodynamic coefficients at trim.

Gaussian Processes↗

The 11 Micron Emissions of Carbon Stars

A new classification scheme of the IRAS LRS carbon stars is presented. It comprises the separation of 718 probable carbon stars into 12 distinct self-similar spectral groupings. Continuum temperatures are assigned and range from 470 to 5000 K. Three distinct dust species are identifiable: SiC, alpha:C-H, and MgS. In addition to the narrow 11 + micron emission feature that is commonly attributed to SiC, a broad 11 + micron emission feature, that is correlated with the 8.5 and 7.7 micron features, is found and attributed to alpha:C-H. SiC and alpha:C-H band strengths are found to correlate with the temperature progression among the Classes. We find a spectral sequence of Classes that reflects the carbon star evolutionary sequence of spectral types, or alternatively developmental sequences of grain condensation in carbon-rich circumstellar shells. If decreasing temperature corresponds to increasing evolution, then decreasing temperature corresponds to increasing C/O resulting in increasing amounts of carbon rich dust, namely alpha:C-H. If decreasing the temperature corresponds to a grain condensation sequence, then heterogeneous, or induced nucleation scenarios are supported. SiC grains precede alpha:C-H and form the nuclei for the condensation of the latter material. At still lower temperatures, MgS appears to be quite prevalent. No 11.3 micron PAH features are identified in any of the 718 carbon stars. However, one of the coldest objects, IRAS 15048-5702, and a few others, displays an 11.9 micron emission feature characteristic of laboratory samples of coronene. That feature corresponds to the C-H out of plane deformation mode of aromatic hydrocarbon. This band indicates the presence of unsaturated, sp(sup 3), hydrocarbon bonds that may subsequently evolve into saturated bonds, sp(sup 2), if, and when, the star enters the planetary nebulae phase of stellar evolution. The effusion of hydrogen from the hydrocarbon grain results in the evolution in wavelength of this 11.9 micron emission feature to the 11.3 micron feature.

Goebel, J. H.↗

The 11 Micron Emissions of Cabon Stars

A new classification scheme of the IRAS LRS carbon stars is presented. It comprises the separation of 718 probable carbon stars into 12 distinct self-similar spectral groupings. Continuum temperatures are assigned and range from 470 to 5000 K. Three distinct dust species are identifiable: SiC, alpha:C-H, and MgS. In addition to the narrow 11 + micron emission feature that is commonly attributed to SiC, a broad 11 + micron emission feature, that is correlated with the 8.5 and 7.7 micron features, is found and attributed to alpha:C-H. SiC and alpha:C-H band strengths are found to correlate with the temperature progression among the Classes. We find a spectral sequence of Classes that reflects the carbon star evolutionary sequence of spectral types, or alternatively developmental sequences of grain condensation in carbon-rich circumstellar shells. If decreasing temperature corresponds to increasing evolution, then decreasing temperature corresponds to increasing CIO resulting in increasing amounts of carbon rich dust, namely alpha:C-H. If decreasing the temperature corresponds to a grain condensation sequence, then heterogeneous, or induced nucleation scenarios are supported. SiC grains precede alpha:C-H and form the nuclei for the condensation of the latter material. At still lower temperatures, MgS appears to be quite prevalent. No 11.3 micron PAH features are identified in any of the 718 carbon stars. However, one of the coldest objects, IRAS 15048-5702, and a few others, displays an 11.9 micron emission feature characteristic of laboratory samples of coronene. That feature corresponds to the C-H out of plane deformation mode of aromatic hydrocarbon. This band indicates the presence of unsaturated, sp(sup 3), hydrocarbon bonds that may subsequently evolve into saturated bonds, sp(sup 2), if, and when, the star enters the planetary nebulae phase of stellar evolution. The effusion of hydrogen from the hydrocarbon grain results in the evolution in wavelength of this 11.9 micron emission feature to the 11.3 micron feature.

Goebel, J. H.↗

Mobile multiple access study

Multiple access techniques (FDMA, CDMA, TDMA) for the mobile user and attempts to identify the current best technique are discussed. Traffic loading is considered as well as voice and data modulation and spacecraft and system design. Emphasis is placed on developing mobile terminal cost estimates for the selected design. In addition, design examples are presented for the alternative techniques of multiple access in order to compare with the selected technique.

Source record↗

Objective Classification of Radar Profile Types, and Their Relationship to Lightning Occurrence

A cluster analysis technique is used to identify 16 "archetypal" vertical radar profile types from a large, globally representative sample of profiles from the TRMM Precipitation Radar. These include nine convective types (7 of these deep convective) and seven stratiform types (5 of these clearly glaciated). Radar profile classification provides an alternative to conventional deep convective storm metrics, such as 30 dBZ echo height, maximum reflectivity or VIL. As expected, the global frequency of occurrence of deep convective profile types matches satellite-observed total lightning production, including to very small scall local features. Each location's "mix" of profile types provides an objective description of the local convective spectrum, and in turn, is a first step in objectively classifying convective regimes. These classifiers are tested as inputs to a neural network which attempts to predict lightning occurrence based on radar-only storm observations, and performance is compared with networks using traditional radar metrics as inputs.

Boccippio, Dennis↗

Setting the Bar for the Replacement of the Probability of Collision Metric

To date, satellite conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis has largely embraced the probability of collision (Pc) as the omnibus metric to evaluate collision likelihood, and its use in such assessments has mostly been straightforward: at the point at which a conjunction mitigation decision is required, the calculated Pc is compared to a threshold; and if the calculated Pc exceeds that threshold, then a mitigation action is warranted. With only minor variation, this approach is employed by major CA risk assessment centers (e.g., NASA, EUSST, CNES, JAXA) and is advanced as the preferred method in the published CA best practices handbooks. Despite this near unanimity of operational practice, there is a major strain of secondary literature critical of the Pc and willing to propose alternatives. Alfano (2005) pointed out the ability of the Pc to underrepresent the risk in certain situations and counselled a maximum Pc construct. Carpenter (2017, 2019) reiterated this criticism and proposed using instead a confidence interval on the miss distance. Balch et al. (2019) identified what they argued was a defect in the entire Bayesian Pc construct and believed that the use of a more conservative methodology based on covariance ellipsoid overlap was necessary. Delande (2022) introduced the framework of collision “plausibility” to the risk assessment process and sketched out how this might be used operationally. Elkantassi (2022) published a full development of the miss distance confidence interval approach and applied it to several worked examples. While these different approaches to collision risk assessment do differ in their details, they all converge on two central points: first, the Pc’s failure to give an adequate expression of the risk in dilution region situations is a fatal flaw; and second, a conjunction should be presumed risky and in need of mitigation until the evidence of the situation can establish otherwise. These criticisms, if correct, would counsel a number of modifications to current CA operational practice; as such, they force a re-examination of fundamental aspects of the CA problem, including the following: 1. Is the CA risk assessment a probability problem, a statistics problem, or something else? 2. If it is a statistics problem, does it lend itself naturally to a hypothesis test construction? 3. If it can be construed as a hypothesis test, what form should the null hypothesis take, to wit: what constraints exist on the choice of the null hypothesis, what selections are in best alignment with all of the attendant parameters of the problem, and what is implied philosophically by different choices? 4. What are the implications of using the different proposed risk assessment parameters for CA? This question should be answered both in determining how frequently the dilution region situation cited by the critics of the Pc actually appears in an operationally significant manner and the missed detection and false alarm rates of all of the proposed risk assessment metrics, compared both to the Pc and to each other. This paper explores and offers preliminary answers to the above questions, presenting a researched treatment of the philosophical nature of the CA problem and the null hypothesis choice that achieves the greatest consistency with all of the different aspects of operational CA conduct. It then profiles all of the different proposed risk assessment metrics enumerated in the earlier paragraph against an extremely large database of conjunction events at both the 550km and 700km altitudes. The combination of the philosophical exploration of the CA problem and the results of the profiling activity articulates what a risk assessment metric will need to demonstrate, in terms of both innate construction and performance, in order to be a true competitor to the Pc.

conjunction assessment↗

High-latitude distributions of plasma waves and spatial irregularities from DE 2 alternating current electric field observations

The high-latitude spatial distributions of average signal intensities in 12 frequency channels between 4 Hz and 512 kHz as measured by the ac electric field spectrometers on the DE-2 spacecraft are analyzed for 18 mo of measurements. In MLT-INL (magnetic local time-invariant latitude) there are three distinct distributions that can be identified with 4-512 Hz signals from spatial irregularities and Alfven waves, 256-Hz to 4.1-kHz signals from ELF hiss, and 4.1-64 kHz signals from VLF auroral hiss, respectively. Overlap between ELF hiss and spatial irregularity signals occurs in the 256-512 Hz band. VLF hiss signals extend downward in frequency into the 1.0-4.1 kHz band and upward into the frequency range 128-512 kHz. The distinctly different spatial distribution patterns for the three bands, 4-256 Hz, 512-1204 Hz, and 4.1-64 kHz, indicate a lack of any causal relationships between VLF hiss, ELF hiss, and lower-frequency signals from spatial irregularities and Alfven waves.

Heppner, J. P.↗

Fibroma induction in rat skin following single or multiple doses of 1.0 GeV/nucleon 56Fe ions from the Brookhaven Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS)

Rat skin was exposed to the plateau region of the 1.0 GeV/nucleon 56Fe beam at the Brookhaven AGS. Rats were irradiated or not with single of split doses of 56Fe or argon; some 56Fe-exposed rats were fed 250 ppm retinyl acetate continuously in the lab chow beginning 1 week before irradiation. All lesions were noted, photographed and identified for eventual histological diagnosis. The preponderance of the tumors so far are fibromas. The data show that single doses of 56Fe ions are 2 or 3 fold more effective than argon in producing tumors at 4.5 Gy but are about equally effective at 3.0 Gy and 9.0 Gy. The presence of 250 ppm retinyl acetate in the lab chow reduced the incidence of tumors by about 50-60% in comparison to groups exposed only to the radiation. These are preliminary findings based on only about one-fourth the eventual number of tumors expected.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗