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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Reactions of hydrazine with the amidogen radical and atomic hydrogen

The rate coefficient k 1 for NH 2 + N 2 H 4 was measured to be (5.4 ± 0.4) × 10 –14 cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 at 296 K. NH 2 was generated by pulsed laser photolysis of NH 3 at 193 nm, and monitored as a function of time by pulsed laser-induced fluorescence excited at 570.3 nm under pseudo-first order conditions in the presence of excess N 2 H 4 in an Ar bath gas. This reaction was also investigated computationally, with geometries and scaled frequencies obtained with M06-2X/6-311+G(2df,2p) theory, and single-point energies from CCSD(T)-F12b/cc-pVTZ-F12 theory, plus a term to correct approximately for electron correlation through CCSDT(Q). Three connected transition states are involved and rate constants were obtained via Multistructural Improved Canonical Variational Transition State Theory with Small Curvature Tunneling. Combination of experiment and theory leads to a recommended rate coefficient for hydrogen abstraction of k 1 = 6.3 × 10 –23 T 3.44 exp(+289 K/T) cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 . The minor channel for H + N 2 H 4 forming NH 2 + NH 3 was characterized computationally as well, to yield 5.0 × 10 –19 T 2.07 exp(-4032 K/T) cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 . Finally, these results are compared to several discordant prior estimates, and are employed in an overall mechanism to compare with measurements of half-lives of hydrazine in a shock tube.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large anomalous Hall conductivity induced by spin chirality fluctuation in an ultraclean frustrated antiferromagnet PdCrO 2

Magnetic frustration, realized in the special geometrical arrangement of localized spins, often promotes topologically nontrivial spin textures in the real space and induces significantly large unconventional Hall responses. This spin Berry curvature effect in itinerant frustrated magnets mainly works with a static spin order, limiting the effective temperature range below the magnetic transition temperature and yielding the typical anomalous Hall conductivity below ~ 10 3 Ω -1 cm -1 . Here we show that an ultraclean triangular-lattice antiferromagnet PdCrO 2 exhibits a large anomalous Hall conductivity up to ~ 10 6 Ω -1 cm -1 in the paramagnetic state, which is maintained far above the Neel temperature (T N ) up to ~ 4T N . The reported enhancement of anomalous Hall response above T N is attributed to the skew scattering of highly mobile Pd electrons to fluctuating but locally-correlated Cr spins with a finite spin chirality. Our findings point at an alternative route to realizing high-temperature giant anomalous Hall responses, exploiting magnetic frustration in the ultraclean regime.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Bayesian Framework for Spectral Reprojection

Abstract Fourier partial sum approximations yield exponential accuracy for smooth and periodic functions, but produce the infamous Gibbs phenomenon for non-periodic ones. Spectral reprojection resolves the Gibbs phenomenon by projecting the Fourier partial sum onto a Gibbs complementary basis, often prescribed as the Gegenbauer polynomials. Noise in the Fourier data and the Runge phenomenon both degrade the quality of the Gegenbauer reconstruction solution, however. Motivated by its theoretical convergence properties, this paper proposes a new Bayesian framework for spectral reprojection, which allows a greater understanding of the impact of noise on the reprojection method from a statistical point of view. We are also able to improve the robustness with respect to the Gegenbauer polynomials parameters. Finally, the framework provides a mechanism to quantify the uncertainty of the solution estimate.

Li, Tongtong (ORCID:0000000276644764)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Production System Scaling Using a High-Fidelity Simulation-Optimization Framework

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers are widely used for hydrogen production, yet few validated, high-fidelity tools can reliably guide scale-up. Using measured performance from a 50-hour hardware-in-the-loop pilot test, a physics-based, plant-level model of a 1.25 MW PEM electrolyzer and its balance-of-plant (BoP) subsystems is developed and validated. The model couples electrochemistry and thermal/flow submodels and is calibrated against pilot test data via a genetic algorithm (GA) workflow. Validation yields a mean absolute percentage error (APE) of 0.43% for cell voltage and stack power. Two scale-out strategies are then benchmarked under a common 7-day wind-and-photovoltaic (PV) profile: (i) linear duplication of 1.25 MW blocks and (ii) shared-BoP architectures. Sharing BoP between stacks reduces BoP energy by 27% at 10 MW and 34% at 100 MW (vs. linear duplication) and improves system specific energy consumption (SEC) to 52.9 and 52.6 kWh/kg, respectively (from 54.0 kWh/kg with linear duplication). Partial-load studies (25-100% set-point) show that cumulative hydrogen production remains nearly constant down to 50% load because all cases use the same weekly renewable-energy input. Below 50%, the power cap limits how much energy can be used within 168 h, which reduces hydrogen output. The model further indicates that the practical operating optimum lies between 50% and 85% load, where efficiency gains begin to appear without significant loss in hydrogen output. Moreover, the efficiency gains at lower loads are offset by reduced production. The validated framework supports scenario-based engineering trade-off studies for large configurations (10-100 MW) and for operating policies under variable renewables.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

A phosphorylation-deficient ribosomal protein eS6 is largely functional in Arabidopsis thaliana , rescuing mutant defects from global translation and gene expression to photosynthesis and growth

The eukaryote-specific ribosomal protein of the small subunit eS6 is phosphorylated through the target of rapamycin (TOR) kinase pathway. Although this phosphorylation event responds dynamically to environmental conditions and has been studied for over 50 years, its biochemical and physiological significance remains controversial and poorly understood. Here, we report data from Arabidopsis thaliana, which indicate that plants expressing only a phospho-deficient isoform of eS6 grow essentially normally under laboratory conditions. The eS6z (RPS6A) paralog of eS6 functionally rescued a double mutant in both rps6a and rps6b genes when expressed at approximately twice the wild-type dosage. A mutant isoform of eS6z lacking the major six phosphorylatable serine and threonine residues in its carboxyl-terminal tail also rescued the lethality, rosette growth, and polyribosome loading of the double mutant. This isoform also complemented many mutant phenotypes of rps6 that were newly characterized here, including photosynthetic efficiency, and most of the gene expression defects that were measured by transcriptomics and proteomics. However, compared with plants rescued with a phospho-enabled version of eS6z, the phospho-deficient seedlings retained a mild pointed-leaf phenotype, root growth was reduced, and certain cell cycle-related mRNAs and ribosome biogenesis proteins were misexpressed. The residual defects of the phospho-deficient seedlings could be understood as an incomplete rescue of the rps6 mutant defects. There was little or no evidence for gain-of-function defects. As previously published, the phospho-deficient eS6z also rescued the rps6a and rps6b single mutants; however, phosphorylation of the eS6y (RPS6B) paralog remained lower than predicted, further underscoring that plants can tolerate phospho-deficiency of eS6 well. Our data also yield new insights into how plants cope with mutations in essential, duplicated ribosomal protein isoforms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of Sequential ϒ Suppression in Au + Au Collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV with the STAR Experiment

We report on measurements of sequential ϒ suppression in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV with the STAR detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) through both the dielectron and dimuon decay channels. In the 0%–60% centrality class, the nuclear modification factors (𝑅 𝐴⁢𝐴 ), which quantify the level of yield suppression in heavy-ion collisions compared to 𝑝 + 𝑝 collisions, for ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆) and ϒ⁡(2⁢𝑆) are 0.40 ± 0.03⁢(stat) ± 0.03⁢(sys) ± 0.09⁢(norm) and 0.26 ± 0.08⁢(stat) ± 0.02⁢(sys) ± 0.06⁢(norm), respectively, while the upper limit of the ϒ⁡(3⁢𝑆) 𝑅 𝐴⁢𝐴 is 0.17 at a 95% confidence level. This provides experimental evidence that the ϒ⁡(3⁢𝑆) is significantly more suppressed than the ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆) at RHIC. The level of suppression for ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆) is comparable to that observed at the much higher collision energy at the Large Hadron Collider. Furthermore, these results point to the creation of a medium at RHIC whose temperature is sufficiently high to strongly suppress excited ϒ states.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Roman View of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Galaxy–galaxy strong gravitational lenses can constrain dark matter models and the Lambda cold dark matter cosmological paradigm at subgalactic scales. Currently, there is a dearth of images of these rare systems with high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and angular resolution. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (hereafter Roman), scheduled for launch in late 2026, will play a transformative role in strong-lensing science with its planned wide-field surveys. With its remarkable 0.281 square degree field of view and diffraction-limited angular resolution of ~0$^{''}_.$1, Roman is uniquely suited to characterizing dark matter substructure from a robust population of strong lenses. We present a yield simulation of detectable strong lenses in Roman’s planned High Latitude Wide Area Survey (HLWAS). We simulate a population of galaxy–galaxy strong lenses across cosmic time with cold dark matter subhalo populations, select those detectable in the HLWAS, and generate simulated images accounting for realistic Wide Field Instrument detector effects. For a fiducial case of single 146 s exposures, we predict around 160,000 detectable strong lenses in the HLWAS, of which about 500 will have sufficient SNR to be amenable to detailed substructure characterization. We investigate the effect of variation of the point-spread function across Roman’s field of view on detecting individual subhalos and the suppression of the subhalo mass function at low masses. Our simulation products are available to support strong-lens science with Roman, such as training neural networks and validating dark matter substructure analysis pipelines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital Transformation for the Existing Fleet: Where to Start?

To remain economically viable in today’s electricity marketplace, nuclear power plants are replacing old analog equipment with modern digital tools. Having information available in an electronic format allows most work processes to become more efficient by automating simple, time-consuming tasks. However, with thousands of routine work processes performed every day, it can be difficult for the plants to know where to begin. We partnered with a nuclear utility to develop a novel assessment tool that measures seven health indicators for each work process performed, providing a rapid digital status report of the plant. The assessment tool is inexpensive and user-friendly, administered remotely, and automatically customized to each employee. Data from 167 employees representing different perspectives were analyzed to identify optimal candidates for digital initiatives that yield the highest payback for increased process efficiencies. We ranked by a priority index to ensure that processes with a good combination of time savings and digital opportunity were at the top. The focus was on determining a maximum investment to ensure that the cost savings from these initiatives are positive over a specified period. We identified potential cost savings of $2.6m, $1.3m and $1.2m for our top priority processes. By using our novel assessment tool to determine the digital status of the plant’s work processes, they were provided with a starting point for target candidates that would most benefit from a digital initiative. Our analysis helps stakeholders understand the financial impact of digital initiatives and identify maximum investment amounts when seeking technical solutions.

assessment↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Strategies to Approach Net-Zero Carbon Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Woody Biomass Gasification and Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis

Reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transportation industry is a key target for achieving global net-zero carbon goals. Wide-spread electrification, efficient engine design, and alternative fuel implementations have been introduced for light-duty vehicles and are projected to significantly reduce light-duty emissions in the near future. Conversely, the aviation sector contributes considerably towards transportation-based carbon emissions, but current projections do not show substantial reductions in carbon emissions over time. Challenges for the aviation sector include low compatibility with electrification, relative inflexibility to variations in fuel properties, and requirement of high energy density fuels. Thus, identifying pathways to decarbonize the aviation sector via liquid low- or net-zero carbon biofuels that are compatible with current aviation infrastructure is crucial. This work investigates the economic feasibility of approaching net-zero carbon sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from woody biomass via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. In doing so, this assessment identifies the economic opportunities and trade-offs of several carbon mitigation strategies coupled with renewable resource interventions required to approach net-zero carbon fuels via biomass. Renewable natural gas and green hydrogen utilization strategies are assessed to examine the impact of fuel yield improvements versus renewable resource cost. Additionally, both carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) are considered in this analysis to help mitigate carbon loss to the atmosphere. Each scenario was assessed on cost, carbon efficiency, energy efficiency, and overall technology-readiness level (TRL). The results of this analysis show that renewable natural gas, green hydrogen, and CCS can be viewed as a low-cost, near-term carbon abatement strategies. However, in the long-term, deployment of more expensive and less technologically mature CCU technologies can make use of point sources of CO2 to boost overall fuel production.

aviation fuel↗
DOE OSTI2026

Second Harmonic Generation Electric Field Triplet Interferometry for Absolute Phasing

We report second harmonic generation (SHG) electric field triplet interferometry performed using three mutually coherent ultrafast pulses in a common path with controllable relative phases, namely, the light fields of a sample signal (SI), a reference oscillator (RO), and a local oscillator (LO). The ROLO phase determined from the interference of the light fields produced by two quartz wafers is subtracted from the phase determined from the SIROLO interferogram to yield the signal phase, ϕ SI . The new method also calibrates the measured SHG intensity from a given sample internally by sending the fundamental light field reflected from the sample into one of the quartz wafers in the ROLO element. The approach avoids having to exchange the sample against a reference material with a known χ(2) value or known phase and accounts on-the-fly for situations where the reflected fundamental light field intensity changes with experimental conditions. The new method is successfully benchmarked against z-cut α-quartz, fused silica held at its point of zero charge, and hematite nanolayers in air, across three different interferometers. Furthermore, the approach should be applicable for other second-order nonlinear spectroscopies, such as vibrational or electronic sum-frequency generation.

Interfaces↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time‐series multi‐omics analysis of micronutrient stress in Sorghum bicolor reveals iron and zinc crosstalk and regulatory network conservation

Micronutrient stress impacts growth, biomass production, and grain yield in crops. Multi-omics studies are valuable resources in identifying genes for functional studies and trait improvement, such as accumulation of Fe or Zn under deficient or excess conditions for bioenergy or grain agriculture. We conducted transcriptomics and ionomics analyses on Sorghum bicolor BTx623, grown under Fe and Zn limited and excess conditions over a 21-day period. To identify early and late transcriptional response in roots and leaves, 180 RNAseq libraries were sequenced for differential expression and co-expression network analyses. Fe and Zn accumulation was measured using ICP-MS at each time point, and a fluorometer was used to estimate chlorophyll content in leaves. Among the four treatments, Fe limitation and Zn excess resulted in the largest phenotypic effects and transcriptional response in roots and leaves. Several of the reduction (Strategy I) and chelation (Strategy II) strategy genes that improve bioavailability of Fe and Zn in plant roots often used by non-grass and grass species, respectively, were differentially expressed. Gene regulatory network (GRN) analysis of roots revealed enrichment of genes from Fe limiting and Zn excess which strongly connect to homologues of SbFIT, SbPYE, and SbBTS as hub genes. The GRN for leaf responses showed homologues of SbPYE and SbBTS as hubs connecting genes for chloroplast biosynthesis, Fe-S cluster assembly, photosynthesis, and ROS scavenging. Expression analyses suggest sorghum uses Strategy II genes for Fe and Zn uptake, as expected, but can also utilize Strategy I genes, which may be advantageous in variable moisture environments. We found strong overlap between Fe and Zn responsive GRNs, indicative of micronutrient crosstalk. We also found conservation of root and leaf GRNs, and known homologous genes suggest strong constraints on homeostasis networks in plants. These data will provide a resource for functional genetics to enhance micronutrient transport in sorghum, and opportunities to conduct further comparative GRN analysis across diverse crops species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Universal correlation for falling film evaporation heat transfer coefficients of water and seawater

Horizontal falling film evaporators are widely utilized in desalination industries to increase fresh water supply. However, universal correlations for seawater falling film evaporation under varied operational and geometrical conditions are simply unavailable in open literature. Thus, this study aims to develop such a universal correlation for both plain and enhanced tubes. The detailed heat transfer mechanisms are reviewed, and rational parameters are incorporated to develop the universal correlation. A dataset of 994 data points from 9 sources covering a wide range of conditions was compiled. These conditions include Reynolds numbers from 10 to 7235, heat fluxes from 7.7 to 208 kW/m -2 , saturation temperatures from 278 to 401 K, salinities from 0 to 60 gsalt kg -1 water, tube diameters from 15.8 to 50.8 mm, and liquid feeder height to diameter ratios from 1 to 2.25. Upon analysis, it was found that most of the recommended existing correlations exhibited poor predictive accuracy, as evidenced by larger MADs. The developed correlation in this study demonstrated the best predictive accuracy for the entire dataset, yielding a MAD of 16.8 % and an R 2 of 0.82. Furthermore, the performance of the new correlation was individually assessed across a broader spectrum of operational and design conditions, reflecting the individual conditions’ influences with an overall MAD of 20 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Chicago Carnegie Hubble Program: Improving the Calibration of Type Ia Supernovae with JWST Measurements of the Tip of the Red Giant Branch

We present distances to 10 supernova (SN) host galaxies determined via the tip of the red giant branch using JWST/NIRCam and the F115W, F356W, and F444W bandpasses. The majority of the analysis was conducted on photometric catalogs that had their absolute zero-points randomized to mask information on distance. The new F115W TRGB distances, anchored by the geometric maser distance to NGC 4258, agree well with our previously derived Hubble Space Telescope (HST) TRGB distances, differing by only 1% on average and 4% on a per-galaxy basis. The color-corrected F115W TRGB is therefore equally precise a method of distance measurement as, and offers unique advantages over, its color-insensitive, I-band counterpart. We use these distances to update four published H 0 calibrations and evaluate how different SN analyses, both within and across independent groups, yield different H 0 values. For our JWST sample of 11 SNe, we find consistent values of H 0 ≃ 69 km s −1 Mpc −1 , with a dispersion of just 0.6 km s −1 Mpc −1 across the updated calibrations. When we expand the sample to 24 by combining with HST TRGB measurements, the results from different SN analyses begin to diverge, with the H 0 based on Pantheon+ and the Carnegie Supernova Project II (CSP-II), respectively, increasing by +2.0 km s −1 Mpc −1 (3.1σ significance) and +0.8 km s −1 Mpc −1 (1.4σ significance). More independent analyses of low-redshift SNe and JWST observations of the TRGB are needed to improve our understanding of systematics in distance ladder determinations of H 0 .

Hoyt, Taylor J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2023

Single-Point Extrapolation to the Complete Basis Set Limit through Deep Learning

Machine learning (ML) offers an attractive method for making predictions about molecular systems while circumventing the need to run expensive electronic structure calculations. Once trained on ab initio data, the promise of ML is to deliver accurate predictions of molecular properties that were previously computationally infeasible. In this work, we develop and train a graph neural network model to correct the basis set incompleteness error (BSIE) between a small and large basis set at the RHF and B3LYP levels of theory. Our results show that, when compared to fitting to the total potential, an ML model fitted to correct the BSIE is better at generalizing to systems not seen during training. We test this ability by training on single molecules while evaluating on molecular complexes. We also show that ensemble models yield better behaved potentials in situations where the training data is insufficient. However, even when only fitting to the BSIE, acceptable performance is only achieved when the training data sufficiently resemble the systems one wants to make predictions on. As a result, the test error of the final model trained to predict the difference between the cc-pVDZ and cc-pV5Z potential is 0.184 kcal/mol for the B3LYP density functional, and the ensemble model accurately reproduces the large basis set interaction energy curves on the S66x8 dataset.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental and computational studies of the kinetics of the reaction of hydrogen peroxide with the amidogen radical

In this work, the pulsed-laser photolysis/laser-induced fluorescence method is used to study the kinetics of the reaction of NH 2 with H 2 O 2 to yield a second-order rate constant of (2.42 ± 0.55) × 10 –14 cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 at 412 K in 10–22 mbar of Ar bath gas. There are no prior measurements for comparison. To check this value and enable reliable extrapolation to other temperatures, we also compute thermal rate constants for this process over the temperature range 298–3000 K via multi-structural canonical variational transition-state theory with small-curvature multidimensional tunneling (MS-CVT/SCT). The CVT/SCT rate constants are derived using a dual-level direct dynamics approach utilizing single-point CCSD(T)-F12b/cc-pVQZ-F12 energies—corrected for core-valence and scalar relativistic effects—and M06-2X/MG3S geometries, gradients, and Hessians—for all stationary and non-stationary points along the reaction path. The multistructural method with torsional anharmonicity, based on a coupled torsional potential, is then employed to calculate correction factors for the rate constants, accounting for the comprehensive effects of torsional anharmonicity on the kinetics of this reaction system. The final MS-CVT/SCT rate constants are found to be in good agreement with our measurements and can be expressed in modified Arrhenius form as 2.13 × 10 –15 (T/298 K) 4.02 exp(–513 K/T) cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 over the temperature range of 298–3000 K.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots

The cultivation of sterile giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus, M × g) for bioenergy and bioproducts has expanded into grain-cropped land in the United States (US) as local markets developed for this high-yielding perennial grass (10–30 Mg DM ha −1 ). However, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variability in yield within US Corn Belt fields, along with impacts on economic return and sustainable land management, is poorly understood. This study established a diagnostic model relating remote sensing-derived vegetation indices to ground truth data from 105 hand-harvested stem biomass samples, which were strategically selected to represent the full range of vegetation index observations. The high-resolution satellite-sensed vegetation indices captured > 90% of the yield variation measured within fields. This model was then used to predict yield variability and assess economic performance across four of the first commercial M × g fields in the Corn Belt state of Iowa, US. Significant spatial variability in biomass dry matter (DM) yields (9.3–18.1 Mg DM ha −1 ) and net profits ($\$$83 to $\$$1211.5 ha −1 ) was observed. All fields were profitable in all site-years. When low profit occurred, it was explained by limited management experience of the crop in Iowa. The breakeven yield at a selling price of $\$$130 Mg −1 varied from 9.0–12.1 Mg ha −1 at 15% moisture content (7.6–10.3 Mg DM ha −1 ). Breakeven prices ranged from $\$$73 to $\$$122.4 Mg −1 , matching ranges used in the Department of Energy Billion Ton Report (US Department of Energy, 2023). Notably, M × g yield and profits were commensurate with grain crops particularly with favorable precipitation. This study provides insight on the M × g management “learning curve”, performance on marginal land and in drought conditions, and demonstrates that addressing yield gaps, reducing costs, and implementing precision agriculture strategies can enhance profitability. These findings emphasize the value of remote sensing technologies in guiding sustainable and competitive commercial-scale M × g production.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗