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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

A Compact Electron-Proton Spectrometer for Moon / Mars Surface Space Weather Monitoring and Crew Protection (CEPS)

Small mass/low-power sensors are needed for autonomous Moon/Mars surface ops that provide alerts to impending adverse space weather conditions. In order to use current operational forecasting tools, a sensor capable of measuring both high-energy electrons and protons is needed. By combining high-TRL Timepix technology with a CdTe layer, this project leverages known technology to fill a critical gap for surface operations. Typical space weather sensors are at least an order of magnitude higher in mass than is expected from Timepix-based devices and are deployed on robotic assets away from human crews. High fidelity measurements at the crew location and subsequent ability are needed to provide warnings to crews to shelter with a device that can easily be carried on the Lunar and Martian surfaces.​ The aim of this project is the development of compact, low power space weather sensors for crew protection based on the combination of AES flight heritage Timepix hardware with novel CdTe (Cadmium Telluride) sensors. CdTe technology has only recently matured to a point where it can be reliably used with Timepix detectors. These detectors will be able to measure electron spectra in an energy range relevant to the RELEASE model, which is used operationally by NASA to provide crew early warning of Solar Energetic Particle Events as well as protons in the energy ranges relevant to human health allowing for event ‘nowcasting’ and total event crew dose prediction. Compared to existing solutions these detectors will be compact enough to travel with crew, providing a significant advantage to space environment situation awareness. Project results indicate that CdTe-based Timepix sensors respond well to energetic electrons, and particle tracks are sufficiently distinct to be able to measure in a mixed radiation field. Thermal testing results point to a needed design modification to mitigate high temperatures the detector will see in space. Radiation susceptibility testing was conducted to assess the radiation hardness of the CdTe-Timepix assembly. Overall, the assembly continued to operate up to 100 kRad of gamma-ray exposure. The system calibration did show drift over time but recovered once exposure was complete.

Dan James Fry↗
NASA NTRS2023

Developing a Hail and Wind Damage Swath Event Database from Daily MODIS True Color Imagery and Storm Reports for Impact Analysis and Applications

Hail and damaging winds are two threats associated with intense and severe thunderstorms that traverse the Midwest and Great Plains during the primary growing season. In certain severe thunderstorm events, large swaths of agricultural crops are impacted, allowing the damage to be viewed from multiple satellite remote sensing platforms. Previous studies have focused on analyzing individual hail and wind damage swaths (HWDSs) using satellite remote sensing, but these swaths have never been officially archived or documented. This lack of documentation has made it difficult to analyze the spatial extent and temporal frequency of HWDSs from year to year. This study utilizes daily true color imagery from MODIS aboard NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites and daily local storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center to build a database of HWDSs occurring in the months of May through August, for years 2000 through 2020. This database identified 1,646 HWDSs in 12 states throughout the Midwest and Great Plains, confirmed through a combination of archived severe weather warnings, radar information, and official storm reports. For each entry in the HWDS database, a geospatial outline is provided along with the most likely date of first visible damage from MODIS imagery as well as the physical characteristics and time of occurrence estimated from available warnings. This study also provides a summary of the radar characteristics for a portion of the database. This database will further the understanding of severe weather damage by hail and wind to agriculture to help understand the frequency of these events and assist in mapping the impacted areas.

Climatology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Helicopter Pilots’ Detect and Avoid and Collision Avoidance Performance With ACAS Xr

The latest variant of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS X) is being designed for both crewed and uncrewed rotorcraft. Referred to as ACAS Xr, the system joins a suite of other ACAS X variants poised to replace the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS II). ACAS Xr is tuned to support current-day helicopter platforms as well as electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles that are still under development. Given this flexibility, ACAS Xr may be used by helicopter crews currently in operation or by remotely-operated eVTOL aircraft in the emerging Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market. To cover the range of potential uses, two distinct configurations are being proposed for ACAS Xr: Collision Avoidance System (CAS) and Detect and Avoid (DAA). Under the CAS configuration, ACAS Xr provides minimal caution-level alerting but issues directive warning-level alerting and guidance. The DAA configuration, by contrast, provides caution-level alerting and guidance, in addition to the warning-level alerting and guidance. The current study was performed as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s AAM project. Six helicopter pilots were recruited to fly a variety of scripted traffic scenarios in a full-motion, crewed eVTOL simulator. Participants flew 60 encounters over two days, reacting to pre-recorded intruder aircraft that were scripted to fly into the participant’s aircraft from different approach angles, relative altitudes, and during different phases of flight. The pilots flew half of the encounters with the CAS configuration and half with the DAA configuration. Within each block of 30 encounters, pilots experienced 10 conflicts while in cruise, 10 in hover, and 10 while on approach to a heliport. Results showed that pilot response times were consistently under 5 seconds for RAs and under 10 seconds for DAA alerts, when present, during all three phases of flight. Unsurprisingly, the DAA configuration was associated with lower rates of en-route and high-severity losses of DAA well clear compared to the CAS configuration in all phases of flight except for the terminal area. Rates of losses of DAA well clear were found to be substantially higher in the Hover scenario, compared to Cruise. Pilots failed to fully comply with RAs at a rate of 0.10-0.18 in all conditions except for the DAA configuration in the Hover scenario, which was associated with a higher non-compliance rate of 0.4 due to Descend RAs issued at low altitudes. The implications of these results with regards to the ongoing development of ACAS Xr is discussed.

air taxis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Helicopter Pilots’ Detect and Avoid and Collision Avoidance Performance with ACAS Xr

The latest variant of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS X) is being designed for both crewed and uncrewed rotorcraft. Referred to as ACAS Xr, the system joins a suite of other ACAS X variants poised to replace the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS II). ACAS Xr is tuned to support current-day helicopter platforms as well as electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles that are still under development. Given this flexibility, ACAS Xr may be used by helicopter crews currently in operation or by remotely-operated eVTOL aircraft in the emerging Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market. To cover the range of potential uses, two distinct configurations are being proposed for ACAS Xr: Collision Avoidance System (CAS) and Detect and Avoid (DAA). Under the CAS configuration, ACAS Xr provides minimal caution-level alerting but issues directive warning-level alerting and guidance. The DAA configuration, by contrast, provides caution-level alerting and guidance, in addition to the warning-level alerting and guidance. The current study was performed as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s AAM project. Six helicopter pilots were recruited to fly a variety of scripted traffic scenarios in a full-motion, crewed eVTOL simulator. Participants flew 60 encounters over two days, reacting to pre-recorded intruder aircraft that were scripted to fly into the participant’s aircraft from different approach angles, relative altitudes, and during different phases of flight. The pilots flew half of the encounters with the CAS configuration and half with the DAA configuration. Within each block of 30 encounters, pilots experienced 10 conflicts while in cruise, 10 in hover, and 10 while on approach to a heliport. Results showed that pilot response times were consistently under 5 seconds for RAs and under 10 seconds for DAA alerts, when present, during all three phases of flight. Unsurprisingly, the DAA configuration was associated with lower rates of en-route and high-severity losses of DAA well clear compared to the CAS configuration in all phases of flight except for the terminal area. Rates of losses of DAA well clear were found to be substantially higher in the Hover scenario, compared to Cruise. Pilots failed to fully comply with RAs at a rate of 0.10-0.18 in all conditions except for the DAA configuration in the Hover scenario, which was associated with a higher non-compliance rate of 0.4 due to Descend RAs issued at low altitudes. The implications of these results with regards to the ongoing development of ACAS Xr is discussed.

air taxis↗
NASA NTRS2023

CEPS – A Compact Electron-Proton Spectrometer

Small mass/low-power sensors are needed for autonomous Moon/Mars surface ops that provide alerts to impending adverse space weather conditions. In order to use current operational forecasting tools, a sensor capable of measuring both high-energy electrons and protons is needed. By combining high-TRL Timepix technology with a CdTe layer, this project leverages known technology to fill a critical gap for surface operations. Typical space weather sensors are at least an order of magnitude higher in mass than is expected from Timepix-based devices and are deployed on robotic assets away from human crews. High fidelity measurements at the crew location and subsequent ability are needed to provide warnings to crews to shelter with a device that can easily be carried on the Lunar and Martian surfaces.​ The aim of this project is the development of compact, low power space weather sensors for crew protection based on the combination of AES flight heritage Timepix hardware with novel CdTe (Cadmium Telluride) sensors. CdTe technology has only recently matured to a point where it can be reliably used with Timepix detectors. These detectors will be able to measure electron spectra in an energy range relevant to the RELEASE model, which is used operationally by NASA to provide crew early warning of Solar Energetic Particle Events as well as protons in the energy ranges relevant to human health allowing for event ‘nowcasting’ and total event crew dose prediction. Compared to existing solutions these detectors will be compact enough to travel with crew, providing a significant advantage to space environment situation awareness. Project results indicate that CdTe-based Timepix sensors respond well to energetic electrons, and particle tracks are sufficiently distinct to be able to measure in a mixed radiation field. Detector response functions were developed for both electrons and protons. Measurement results showed response to both electrons and protons in the energy range of interest for human space flight.

Radiation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Open Science in Atmospheric Research: Integrating Data Usability and Machine Learning

In the dynamic realm of atmospheric sciences, the convergence of data science methodologies and open data marks a transformative era, driving research advancements and nurturing aspiring scientists. This abstract highlights two pivotal projects that epitomize open science principles, aligning seamlessly with the session's objective of interdisciplinary synergy and the cultivation of emerging talent. As a NASA-certified data center, our foremost endeavor focuses on enhancing the visibility and traceability of NASA datasets within atmospheric science research. This initiative not only elevates these datasets' prominence but also establishes a robust framework ensuring their credibility in scholarly discourse. By bridging the gap between data sources and research publications, this project serves as an educational catalyst, nurturing a new generation of scholars in open collaboration and dataset authenticity. Concurrently, our second project pioneers an early warning system for flooding events, utilizing machine learning algorithms to predict flooded fractions. Through multi-source data fusion and predictive modeling, this initiative goes beyond forecasting; it embodies the core of open science by enabling proactive risk mitigation strategies. This project not only advances atmospheric sciences but also fosters an environment where young scholars engage in practical, data-driven solutions. These intertwined projects exemplify the fusion of data science with open data solutions, ensuring both the usability of quality datasets and the cultivation of scientific knowledge among emerging scholars. By spotlighting these impactful use cases, our aim is to foster discussions emphasizing the importance of open collaboration, data integrity, and the nurturing of scientific talent in atmospheric sciences." "In the dynamic realm of atmospheric sciences, the convergence of data science methodologies and open data marks a transformative era, driving research advancements and nurturing aspiring scientists. This abstract highlights two pivotal projects that epitomize open science principles, aligning seamlessly with the session's objective of interdisciplinary synergy and the cultivation of emerging talent. As a NASA-certified data center, our foremost endeavor focuses on enhancing the visibility and traceability of NASA datasets within atmospheric science research. This initiative not only elevates these datasets' prominence but also establishes a robust framework ensuring their credibility in scholarly discourse. By bridging the gap between data sources and research publications, this project serves as an educational catalyst, nurturing a new generation of scholars in open collaboration and dataset authenticity. Concurrently, our second project pioneers an early warning system for flooding events, utilizing machine learning algorithms to predict flooded fractions. Through multi-source data fusion and predictive modeling, this initiative goes beyond forecasting; it embodies the core of open science by enabling proactive risk mitigation strategies. This project not only advances atmospheric sciences but also fosters an environment where young scholars engage in practical, data-driven solutions. These intertwined projects exemplify the fusion of data science with open data solutions, ensuring both the usability of quality datasets and the cultivation of scientific knowledge among emerging scholars. By spotlighting these impactful use cases, our aim is to foster discussions emphasizing the importance of open collaboration, data integrity, and the nurturing of scientific talent in atmospheric sciences.

Jennifer Wei↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of a Combined Drought Indicator Against Crop Yield Estimations and Simulations Over the Argentine Humid Pampas

Droughts pose serious threats to the agricultural sector, especially in rainfed-dominated agricultural regions like those in Argentina’s Humid Pampas. This region was recently impacted by slow-evolving and long-lasting droughts as well as by flash droughts, resulting in losses reaching thousands of millions of US dollars. Improvements of drought early warning systems are essential, particularly given the projected increase in drought frequency and severity over southern South America. The spatial and temporal relationship between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health anomalies are crucial for better understanding and representation of the agricultural droughts and their impacts. In this context, the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) considers the causal and time-lagged relationship of these three variables. The study’s objective is twofold: (1) Analyze the time-lagged response between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and satellite fAPAR anomalies; and (2) Evaluate the CDI’s capability to characterize the severity of drought events on the Humid Pampas against agricultural yield estimations and simulations, as well as agricultural emergency declarations. The correlation among the variables shows strong spatial variability. The highest Pearson correlation values (r > 0.42) are observed over parts of the Humid Pampas for time lags of 0, 10, and 20 days between the variables. Although the CDI has limitations, such as its coarse spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution of precipitation data, it effectively tracks the progression of major drought events in the region. The CDI’s performance aligns well with estimations and simulations of soybean and corn yields, as well as official declarations of agricultural emergencies. Insights from this study also provide a basis for discussing potential improvements to the CDI. This study highlights the global and regional significance of evaluating and enhancing the CDI for effective drought monitoring, emphasizing the role of collaborative efforts for future advancements in drought early warning systems.

Combined Drought Indicator↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Effectiveness of Maneuvering Guidelines for Space Traffic Management

The number of objects in space has been increasing rapidly, and the risk of collision has grown as well. Many spacecraft operators are now receiving multiple collision warnings a day. Despite this, systems to manage space traffic have been limited: there are no broadly agreed upon guidelines or rules governing the response to predicted potential collisions. Instead, spacecraft operators generally determine whether, when, and how to respond to these warnings on a manual and ad hoc basis. Coordination between operators, if it occurs, often requires repeated communication and negotiation. Some space actors have suggested that the space community should develop right of way rules, similar to those in the ground, sea, and air domains, to guide collision response decisions. However, it is unclear whether such rules would be effective, and it’s unknown whether such rules would have an equitable impact across various spacecraft operators. To address these issues, we developed the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a software tool that was used to simulate the space environment with a recent catalog of objects obtained from the U.S. Space-Track.org system. We implemented multiple potential right of way rules within this model. The analysis confirmed that the choice of right of way rule makes a meaningful difference in terms of both efficiency and distributional effects in terms of collision avoidance maneuvers. For example, our analysis shows that rules in which the less massive satellite is required to maneuver results in a more equitable distribution of maneuver responsibility among space actors and also requires less fuel mass, compared to a rule in which the more massive satellite maneuvers.

space traffic management↗
DOE OSTI2019

System for kick detection during a drilling operation

The disclosure provides a kick detection system for use during a drilling operation where wellbore kick warnings are provided based on indications of standoff conditions in a compensated instrument system. The system provides a warning of a potential kick condition by analyzing a current instrument compensation against a time series of past compensations, in order to monitor whether conditions within the standoff region of the wellbore are unexpectedly changing. The system comprises a source, a short-spaced detector, and a long-spaced detector, and a processor receives the short-spaced signal and the long-spaced signal, compensates the long-spaced signal, and generates standoff data reflecting the corrections applied to the long-range signal. The processor determines and maintains the standoff data as a time series and periodically compares a recent data point to a moving average in order to evaluate indications of a potential well kick.

Rose, Kelly K.↗
DOE OSTI2017

A novel approach to criticality accident detection for a legacy facility

For operations on the Sellafield site involving fissile material a Criticality Accident Alarm System (CAAS) has traditionally been installed unless an omission case can be made. An omission case would examine if, in the absence of all controls, a criticality could reasonably be expected or whether the potential dose to an operator would remain below a maximum acceptable dose. It is a UK legal requirement for adequate emergency arrangements to be in place for hazards on a nuclear licensed site. For facilities where criticality is credible there is a regulatory expectation that a -Criticality Warning System- should be in place. A -Criticality Warning System- is not necessarily a full CAAS and alternative means of criticality detection may be part of an adequate emergency plan. The Sellafield site has a Magnox fuel reprocessing facility which has been operated since the 1960's. Evaporation of the Medium Active (MA) liquid waste from this process is undertaken in an associated building. Following extensive review of the plant and process a number of maloperations which can route fissile material to the MA evaporator were identified. Adequate controls to prevent these scenarios were shown to be in place. In the unlikely event of a failure of controls leading to sustained loss of fissile material a criticality incident may occur and hence an emergency plan was determined to be necessary. The novel emergency arrangements which were developed utilized the existing gamma monitor network located across multiple building floors. These gamma monitors are present for radiological safety. This emergency arrangement would require rapid interpretation of the gamma alarms by an operator and the manual triggering of a criticality evacuation alarm. The gamma monitors were demonstrated to be able to detect the minimum incident of concern (10{sup 15} fissions) as well as being able to alarm during the ramp up in power of a large criticality incident (10{sup 18} fissions). It was shown that a criticality accident could readily be distinguished from a radiological event (e.g. loss of containment). To support this work, criticality excursion analysis was used to examine the likely characteristics of a criticality in the MA evaporator. This novel arrangement was justified due to a number of factors including: the limited remaining operational lifetime of this facility (<5 years), the low frequency of maloperation coupled with a failure of controls and the crucial risk reduction provided by the continued reprocessing of Magnox fuel. Furthermore, the time and cost involved with design and installation of a standard CAAS would be substantially greater than a plan based upon existing instrumentation. These arguments were accepted by the UK regulator the Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR). (author)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correlation Between Weather Alerts and Grid Component Failures for Grid Alert

Weather events cause most grid failures. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Recent research at Idaho National Laboratory into electric grid risk analysis methods resulted in a tool that allows for the development of the most likely scenarios given failure probabilities of grid components. INL has a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) program to develop a Grid Alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios uses MASTERRI and then notifies the utility if there is significant risk. Historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid have been compiled by utilities and organizations such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates are needed for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures are correlated with historic weather events from Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. This discusses the Grid Alert project plan but focuses on the data gathered and process used in determining failure rates for possible grid failure scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Natural Hazard Forecast Alert Grid Risk System

Weather events cause most power outages. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Idaho National Laboratory had a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response program to develop a grid alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios using MASTERRI (Modeling And Simulation for Targeted Reliability and Resilience Improvement). For high-risk events, the application can then send alert links to subscribed electric distribution utility operations staff to allow them to see and evaluate the scenarios and the impact in a web based interactive map tool. This proof of concept application used data from utilities and organizations, such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which have complied historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid. Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates were calculated for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures were correlated with historic weather events from the Integrated Public Alert & Warning System. These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. Working with an industry collaborator, actual grid models and data were used for demonstration cases. This report outlines the work performed for this project.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Variable Stability Test Vehicle for ITS Applications

A variable stability test bed is under development for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The Variable Dynamic Testbed Vehicle (VDTV) is being designed for research and testing of advanced collision warning and avoidance technologies being developed by industry and most likely being made available to consumers in the near future.

technologies↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field surveying data of low-cost networked flood sensors in southeast Texas

Floods are common natural disasters worldwide and pose substantial risks to life, property, food production, and natural resources. Effective measures for flood mitigation and warning are essential. Southeast Texas is still at significant risk of flooding, and Lamar University is assisting the region with asset management of a flood sensor network for flooding events. This network provides real-time water stage information. Lamar University developed a survey program to measure elevation and coordinates at each sensor site location to make this data more useful for flood monitoring and mapping. This paper overviews the measurement of the elevation and coordinates of 74 networked flood sensors and various flood stage thresholds at critical points that flood decision-makers can use for reference at each site. In the first phase of this program, these sensors were deployed throughout a 7-county region spanning nearly 6,000 square miles in Southeast Texas. The latitude and longitude of the sensors and their elevations were determined using survey-grade Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology. Various Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS) were utilized for post-processing to achieve sub-inch resolution. The flood stage thresholds, water level sensors elevation, and the elevations and positions of other critical surrounding points are viewable to the public through two online repositories and a web-based sensor management dashboard. The data is used to aid with decisions related to road closures or modeling efforts by mitigation decision-makers, emergency managers, and the public, including the Texas Department of Transportation, Houston Transtar, the National Weather Service, and the Sabine River Authority of Texas (SRA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of copper thiolate organometallic compound as thermal sensitive coating for energy storage system safety

Safety and reliability are primary concerns for the deployment of lithium-ion batteries, especially in electric vehicles (EV) and larger-scale energy storage systems (ESS). Current technology in battery management systems (BMS) includes cell voltage monitoring and positioning temperature sensors in selected locations. For a system with hundreds to thousands of individual batteries, single-point temperature monitoring is inadequate to detect hot spots and cell overheating, which could lead to thermal runaway. Here, we have developed a temperature-sensitive copper-thiol compound that can be directly coated onto battery pouch foils to enable early detection of thermal runaway. Upon reaching specific temperatures, this compound releases a sulfur-containing detectable gas, which can be identified using chemically specific gas sensors to trigger an early warning signal. Such a signal propagate through air offers broad signal coverage and enables a more comprehensive approach to large-area temperature monitoring. The Cu-ethanethiol coating is designed to release volatile gases when the substrate surface temperature exceeds 70 °C, with continuous outgassing as the temperature increases. The compound is composed of Cu, S, Cl, hydrocarbons and trace amounts of oxygen. Upon heating, the oxidation state of Cu(I) transitions to Cu (II), accompanied by gas release. Thermogravimetric analysis coupled with mass spectrometry correlated well with the onset of gas release temperature and emission of sulfur-containing volatile gases. Additionally, an acrylic overcoat is applied to enhance the adhesion of the thermally sensitive compound film to the battery pouch foil. This coating is expected to offer an additional safety layer for ESS, alerting possible thermal runaway events before a failure occurs, thereby allowing sufficient time to implement a mitigation plan.

Early warning systems↗
DOE OSTI2019

Geophysical Monitoring of Moisture-Induced Landslides: A Review

Geophysical monitoring of landslides can provide insights into spatial and temporal variations of subsurface properties associated with slope failure. Recent improvements in equipment, data analysis, and field operations have led to a significant increase in the use of such techniques in monitoring. Geophysical methods complement intrusive approaches, which sample only a very small proportion of the subsurface, and walk-over or remotely sensed data, which principally provide information only at the ground surface. In particular, recent studies show that advances in geophysical instrumentation, data processing, modeling, and interpretation in the context of landslide monitoring are significantly improving the characterization of hillslope hydrology and soil and rock hydrology and strength and their dynamics over time. This review appraises the state of the art of geophysical monitoring, as applied to moisture-induced landslides. Here we focus on technical and practical uses of time-lapse methods in geophysics applied to monitoring moisture-induced landslide. The case studies identified in this review show that several geophysical techniques are currently used in the monitoring of subsurface landslide processes. These geophysical contributions to monitoring and predicting the evolution of landslide processes are currently underrealized. Hence, the further integration of multiple-parametric and geotechnically coupled geophysical monitoring systems has considerable potential. The complementary nature of certain methods to map the distribution of subsurface moisture and elastic moduli will greatly increase the predictive and monitoring capacity of early warning systems in moisture-induced landslide settings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time irreversibility as an indicator of approaching tipping points in Earth subsystems

With shifting environmental trends, many Earth system elements may be poised to undergo critical transitions or ‘tipping’. Reliable anticipation of these tipping elements is vital to inform policy decisions. Many of the current methods for tipping point detection are based on loss of resilience or ‘critical slowdown’ of the system as it approaches a tipping point. However, these methods are prone to false alarms; the detected slowdown may be an artifact of nonstationary noise unrelated to tipping behavior. Here, we explore the efficacy of early warning signs based on a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework. The model-free detection method relies on the increased intrinsic time-irreversibility due to detailed balance breaking, preceding the onset of tipping or instabilities. We demonstrate that these EWSs are effective for tipping point detection and robust against false alarms due to nonstationary noise, using idealized models for two key elements of the Earth system that are prone to tipping: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Arctic sea-ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗