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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Fast Solution of Fully Implicit Runge--Kutta and Discontinuous Galerkin in Time for Numerical PDEs, Part II: Nonlinearities and DAEs

Fully implicit Runge--Kutta (IRK) methods have many desirable accuracy and stability properties as time integration schemes, but high-order IRK methods are not commonly used in practice with large-scale numerical PDEs because of the difficulty of solving the stage equations. This paper introduces a theoretical and algorithmic framework for solving the nonlinear equations that arise from IRK methods (and discontinuous Galerkin discretizations in time) applied to nonlinear numerical PDEs, including PDEs with algebraic constraints. Several new linearizations of the nonlinear IRK equations are developed, offering faster and more robust convergence than the often-considered simplified Newton, as well as an effective preconditioner for the true Jacobian if exact Newton iterations are desired. Inverting these linearizations requires solving a set of block 2 x 2 systems. Under quite general assumptions, it is proven that the preconditioned 2 x 2 operator's condition number is bounded by a small constant close to one, independent of the spatial discretization, spatial mesh, and time step, and with only weak dependence on the number of stages or integration accuracy. Moreover, the new method is built using the same preconditioners needed for backward Euler-type time stepping schemes, so can be readily added to existing codes. The new methods are applied to several challenging fluid flow problems, including the compressible Euler and Navier--Stokes equations, and the vorticity-streamfunction formulation of the incompressible Euler and Navier--Stokes equations. Up to 10th-order accuracy is demonstrated using Gauss IRK, while in all cases fourth-order Gauss IRK requires roughly half the number of preconditioner applications as required by standard Singly diagonally implicit Runge--Kutta methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integral Kernel Methods for Nonlinear Parabolic-Elliptic Systems

Nonlinear parabolic-elliptic systems arise in many physical, biological, and chemical phenomena such as chemotaxis, ion transport, self-gravitating particles, and Brownian vortices. Existing methods struggle with the strong coupling and high nonlinearity and nonlocality of some of these systems, especially the ill-conditioned, convection-dominated problems. To overcome numerical difficulties, current approaches rely on initial guesses, preconditioning, or iterative techniques with no convergence guarantees. They might suffer from poor scalability, large memory usage, and difficulty to parallelize. Inspired by the connection of parabolic-elliptic systems to stochastic processes, we introduce a novel meshless, monolithic, and fully explicit method that naturally encapsulates the elliptic and parabolic operators into a single step which updates each node deterministically with global information. By being fully quadrature-based, it avoids solving systems of discretized equations and does not utilize initial guesses or preconditioning, while requiring little memory and being easy to parallelize. We first derive the method in an integral kernel formulation with quadratic complexity in the number of integration nodes and then leverage kernel-independent fast multipole methods (FMM) to present a scalable algorithm with linear complexity. We provide numerical examples for the Poisson-Nernst-Planck equations in one, two, and three dimensions, together with the derivation of the integral kernel for each case. Furthermore, the examples demonstrate the fast convergence and scalability of the FMM-accelerated algorithm, as well as its suitability for convection-dominated problems, making it competitive against traditional PDE solvers.

PDE systems↗
DOE OSTI2020

Partition functions of $\mathcal{N}$ = 1 gauge theories on S 2 × $\mathbb{R}_ε^2$ and duality

We compute the partition functions of [Formula: see text] gauge theories on [Formula: see text] using supersymmetric localization. The path integral reduces to a sum over vortices at the poles of [Formula: see text] and at the origin of [Formula: see text]. The exact partition functions allow us to test Seiberg duality beyond the supersymmetric index. We propose the [Formula: see text] partition functions on the [Formula: see text]-background, and show that the Nekrasov partition functions can be recovered from these building blocks.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Collective dynamics of polarized spin-half fermions in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Standard relativistic hydrodynamics has been successful in describing the properties of the strongly interacting matter produced in the heavy-ion collision experiments. Recently, there has been a significant theoretical advancement in this field to explain spin polarization of hadrons emitted in these processes. Although current models have successfully explained some of the experimental data based on the coupling between spin polarization and vorticity of the medium, they still lack a clear understanding of the differential measurements. This is commonly interpreted as an indication that the spin needs to be treated as an independent degree of freedom whose dynamics is not entirely bound to flow circulation. In particular, if the spin is a macroscopic property of the system, in equilibrium its dynamics should follow hydrodynamic laws. Here, we develop a framework of relativistic hydrodynamics which includes spin degrees of freedom from the quantum kinetic theory for Dirac fermions and use it for modeling the dynamics of matter. Following experimental observations, we assume that the polarization effects are small and derive conservation laws for the net baryon current, the energy–momentum tensor and the spin tensor based on the de Groot–van Leeuwen–van Weert definitions of these currents. We present various properties of the spin polarization tensor and its components, analyze the propagation properties of the spin polarization components, and derive the spin-wave velocity for arbitrary statistics. We find that only the transverse spin components propagate, analogously to the electromagnetic waves. Finally, using our framework, we study the space–time evolution of the spin polarization for the systems respecting certain space–time symmetries and calculate the mean spin polarization per particle, which can be compared to the experimental data. We find that, for some observables, our spin polarization results agree qualitatively with the experimental findings and other model calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wave Dark Matter

Here we review the physics and phenomenology of wave dark matter: a bosonic dark matter candidate lighter than about 30 eV. Such particles have a de Broglie wavelength exceeding the average interparticle separation in a galaxy like the Milky Way and are, thus, well described as a set of classical waves. We outline the particle physics motivations for such particles, including the quantum chromodynamics axion as well as ultralight axion-like particles such as fuzzy dark matter. The wave nature of the dark matter implies a rich phenomenology: Wave interference gives rise to order unity density fluctuations on de Broglie scale in halos. One manifestation is vortices where the density vanishes and around which the velocity circulates. There is one vortex ring per de Broglie volume on average. For sufficiently low masses, soliton condensation occurs at centers of halos. The soliton oscillates and undergoes random walks, which is another manifestation of wave interference. The halo and subhalo abundance is expected to be suppressed at small masses, but the precise prediction from numerical wave simulations remains to be determined. For ultralight ∼10 −22 eV dark matter, the wave interference substructures can be probed by tidal streams or gravitational lensing. The signal can be distinguished from that due to subhalos by the dependence on stream orbital radius or image separation. Axion detection experiments are sensitive to interference substructures for wave dark matter that is moderately light. The stochastic nature of the waves affects the interpretation of experimental constraints and motivates the measurement of correlation functions. Current constraints and open questions, covering detection experiments and cosmological, galactic, and black hole observations, are discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Turbulent Rotating Rayleigh–Bénard Convection

Rotation with thermally induced buoyancy governs many astrophysical and geophysical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, sun, and Earth's liquid-metal outer core. Rotating Rayleigh–Bénard convection (RRBC) is an experimental system that has features of rotation and buoyancy, where a container of height H and temperature difference Δ between its bottom and top is rotated about its vertical axis with angular velocity Ω. The strength of buoyancy is reflected in the Rayleigh number (~ H 3 Δ) and that of the Coriolis force in the Ekman and Rossby numbers (~Ω -1 ). Rotation suppresses the convective onset, introduces instabilities, changes the velocity boundary layers, modifies the shape of thermal structures from plumes to vortical columns, affects the large-scale circulation, and can decrease or enhance global heat transport depending on buoyant and Coriolis forcing. RRBC is an extremely rich system, with features directly comparable to geophysical and astrophysical phenomena. Here we review RRBC studies, suggest a unifying heat transport scaling approach for the transition between rotation-dominated and buoyancy-dominated regimes in RRBC, and discuss non-Oberbeck–Boussinesq and centrifugal effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamics of Three-Dimensional Shock-Wave/Boundary-Layer Interactions

Advances in measuring and understanding separated, nominally two-dimensional (2D) shock-wave/turbulent-boundary-layer interactions (STBLI) have triggered recent campaigns focused on three-dimensional (3D) STBLI, which display far greater configuration diversity. Nonetheless, unifying properties emerge for semi-infinite interactions, taking the form of conical asymptotic behavior where shock-generator specifics become insignificant. The contrast between 2D and 3D separation is substantial; the skewed vortical structure of 3D STBLI reflects the essentially 2D influence of the boundary layer on the 3D character of the swept shock. As with 2D STBLI, conical interactions engender prominent spectral content below that of the turbulent boundary layer. However, the uniform separation length scale, which is crucial to normalizing the lowest-frequency dynamics in 2D STBLI, is absent. Comparatively, the spectra of 3D STBLI are more representative of the mid-frequency, convective, shear-layer dynamics in 2D, while phenomena associated with 2D separation-shock breathing are muted. Asymptotic behavior breaks down in many regions important to 3D-STBLI dynamics, occurring in a configuration-dependent manner. Aspects of inceptive regions near shock generators and symmetry planes are reviewed. Focused efforts toward 3D modal and nonmodalanalyses, moving-shock/boundary-layer interactions, fluid/structure interactions, and flow control are suggested as directions for future work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification and Validation of Two Hydrodynamic Methods for Simulations of High Energy Density Physics Problems

A 3D verification and validation suite of test problems is presented and used to evaluate hydrodynamic methods within a radiation hydrodynamics code, xRAGE. These test problems exercise different levels of complexity, building towards ICF problems which in addition to hydrodynamics also include three temperature plasma physics, thermal conduction, and radiation diffusion. Among the problems in the test suite are the Kidder ball problem, the Verney shell problem, and a 5-material compression problem, which exercise different purely hydrodynamic methods implemented within xRAGE. There is excellent agreement between 2D and 3D XRAGE simulation results and between the xRAGE results and the benchmark solutions. Two 3D ICF test problems are also presented, based on an OMEGA direct drive capsule experiment and on a NIF indirect drive capsule experiment. It is demonstrated that the newer unsplit hydrodynamic method in xRAGE produces more vorticity relative to the older default method. For the indirect drive capsule, the 3D simulations are in reasonable agreement with the experimental values of ion temperature and neutron production.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Record-Breaking Atmospheric River Drives April 2024 Extreme Precipitation in the United Arab Emirates and the Surrounding Gulf Region

In mid-April 2024, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the surrounding Gulf region experienced unprecedented rainfall and catastrophic flooding, causing widespread damage, loss of life, and significant economic costs. During the 3-day period from 15 to 17 April, rainfall in the UAE exceeded 100 mm in the hardest-hit areas, with more than 170% of the typical annual precipitation recorded in just 72 h. The event was associated with exceptionally strong integrated water vapor transport (IVT), driven by a persistent low pressure system and a focused corridor of moisture transport. This environment, combined with favorable dynamical and convective conditions, triggered intense thunderstorms and widespread flooding. This article examines the role of an atmospheric river (AR) in the April 2024 extreme precipitation event, emphasizing the contribution of extreme IVT to preconditioning and amplifying the heavy rainfall. While this event has previously been described primarily in terms of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and potential vorticity (PV) streamers, here we document and illustrate its close relationship to a record-breaking moisture transport corridor. This AR-based perspective highlights how large-scale moisture-transport frameworks can complement synoptic and mesoscale analyses in understanding extreme rainfall in arid and semiarid regions such as the UAE and the Gulf. The event serves as a stark example of the vulnerabilities faced by arid regions, where atmospheric conditions conducive to extreme flooding may become more frequent in the future.

Massoud, Elias [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000217725361)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combined Effect of the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen Mechanism and Large Eddies on Microphysics of Mixed-Phase Stratiform Clouds

Abstract The process of glaciation in mixed-phase stratiform clouds was investigated by a novel Lagrangian–Eulerian model (LEM) in which thousands of adjoining Lagrangian parcels moved within a turbulent-like velocity field with statistical parameters typical of the Arctic boundary layer. We used detailed bin microphysics to describe the condensation/evaporation processes in each parcel, in which droplets, aerosols, and ice particles were described using size distributions of 500 mass bins. The model also calculated aerosol mass inside droplets and ice particles. Gravitational sedimentation of droplets and ice particles was also accounted for. Assuming that droplet freezing is the primary source of ice particles, the Arctic clouds observed in Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) were successfully simulated. The model showed that at a low ice particle concentration typical of ISDAC, large vortices (eddies) led to a quasi-stationary regime, in which mixed-phase St existed for a long time. The large eddies controlled the water partitioning in the mixed-phase clouds. Droplets formed and grew in updrafts, typically reaching the cloud top, and evaporated in downdrafts. Ice particles grew in updrafts and downdrafts. The Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) mechanism was efficient in downdrafts and some parts of updrafts, depending on ice concentration and vertical velocity. At low ice concentrations, the effect of ice on the phase partitioning was negligible. In this regime, liquid droplets were found near the cloud top, whereas ice particles precipitated through the cloud base. When ice concentration exceeded about 10 L −1 , the WBF mechanism led to glaciation of almost the entire cloud, with the exception of narrow cloud regions associated with strong updrafts. At ice particle concentrations of a few tens per liter, the oscillatory regime took place due to the ice–liquid interaction. The microphysical structure of mixed-phase St forms as a combined effect of cloud dynamics (large eddies) and the WBF mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Pressure Drag on Rising Buoyant Thermals in a Neutrally Stable Environment

Abstract This study examines dynamic pressure drag on rising dry buoyant thermals. A theoretical expression for drag coefficient C d as a function of several other nondimensional parameters governing thermal dynamics is derived based on combining the thermal momentum budget with the similarity theory of Scorer. Using values for these nondimensional parameters from previous studies, the theory suggests drag on thermals is small relative to that on solid spheres in laminar or turbulent flow. Two sets of numerical simulations of thermals in an unstratified, neutrally stable environment using an LES configuration of the Cloud Model 1 (CM1) are analyzed. One set has a relatively low effective Reynolds number R e and the other has an order-of-magnitude-higher R e ; these produce laminar and turbulent resolved-scale flows, respectively. Consistent with the theoretical C d , the magnitude of drag is small in all simulations. However, whereas the laminar thermals have C d ≈ 0.01, the turbulent thermals have weakly negative drag ( C d ≈ −0.1). This difference is explained by the laminar thermals having near vertical symmetry but the turbulent thermals exhibiting considerable vertical asymmetry of their azimuthally averaged flows. In the laminar thermals, buoyancy rapidly becomes concentrated around the main centers of rotation located along the horizontal central axis, leading to expansion of thermals via baroclinic vorticity generation but doing little to break vertical symmetry of the flow. Vertical asymmetry of the azimuthally averaged flow of turbulent thermals is attributed mainly to small-scale resolved eddies that are concentrated in the upper part of the thermals.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diurnal MCSs Precede the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Mora (2017): The Role of Convectively Forced Gravity Waves

In this work, a novel high-resolution regional reanalysis is used to investigate the mesoscale processes that preceded the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Mora (2017). Both satellite observations and the regional reanalysis show early morning mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) persistently initiated and organized in the downshear quadrant of the preexisting tropical disturbance a few days prior to the genesis of TC Mora. The diurnal MCSs gradually enhanced the meso-α-scale vortex near the center of the preexisting tropical disturbance through vortex stretching, providing a vorticity-rich and moist environment for the following burst of deep convection and enhancement of the meso-β-scale vortex. The regional reanalysis shows that the gravity waves that radiated from afternoon convection over the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal might play an important role in modulating the diurnal cycle of pregenesis MCSs. The diurnal convectively forced gravity waves increased the tropospheric stability, reduced the column saturation fraction, and suppressed deep convection within the preexisting tropical disturbance from noon to evening. A similar quasi-diurnal cycle of organized deep convection prior to TC genesis has also been observed over other basins. However, modeling studies are needed to conclusively demonstrate the relationships between the gravity waves and pregenesis diurnal MCSs. Also, whether diurnal gravity waves play a similar role in modulating the pregenesis deep convection in other TCs is worth future investigations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Subtropical Jet Regulates Arabian Winter Precipitation: A Viable Mechanism

The present study explores the mechanism governing wintertime (November–April) precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) using a 17-yr-long (2002–18) high-resolution WRF simulation. The composite analysis of strong precipitation events suggests that the equatorward extension of the upper-level jet together with the embedded upper-level trough creates a positive (cyclonic) midlevel vorticity and subsequently generates an anomalous lower-level convergence through Ekman pumping. This leads to the development of an anomalous surface low, which is further enhanced in the presence of the existing Red Sea trough over the AP. This surface low weakens the persistent anticyclone over the AP, shifting it further eastward to the Arabian Sea. The eastward shift in the lower-level anticyclone contributes to the transport of warm, moist air from the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea toward the AP. This warm, moist air converges with the cold and dry air advected by the midlatitude jet and creates a moisture convergence zone, leading to the initiation of convection. We test the proposed mechanism through numerical experiments with modified upper-level wind and demonstrate that a strong, southward intrusion of the jet can indeed lead to precipitation over the AP. The above mechanism also explains the interannual variability of precipitation over the AP. During wet years, we notice approximately 3 m s -1 stronger jet core magnitude and about a 2° equatorward shift of the jet compared to dry years. While the equatorward extension of the jet explains about 21% of the interannual variability, the jet magnitude explains around 7% of the variability during wet years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study

Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. In our study the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of African Easterly Waves in a Global Climate Model

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) exert significant influence on local and downstream high-impact weather including tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Atlantic. Accurate representation of AEWs in climate and weather prediction models therefore is necessary for skillful predictions. In this study, we examine simulated AEWs, including their evolution, vertical structure, and linkage to tropical cyclone genesis, in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric global climate model. Identified by the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of time-filtered precipitation, the observed westward propagating AEWs along the southern track over the Atlantic are largely captured in GEOS-5, but with a slower phase speed and significantly weaker amplitude downstream off the West Africa coast. The weak downstream development of AEWs in GEOS-5 is accompanied by much reduced TC genesis over the main development region. Further analyses suggest that the slow westward propagation and weaker AEW amplitude downstream can be ascribed to a weak African easterly jet, while overestimated negative (positive) meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients appear to the north (south) of 10°N in GEOS-5. The greatly overestimated positive meridional PV gradient to the south of 10°N is expected to generate strong horizontal stretching in the AEW wave pattern in the model, which hinders organization of convection and its feedback to sustain the AEW development. Persistent and vigorous AEW precipitation in the Guinea Highlands of the West Africa coast could also be responsible for reduced westward propagation of AEWs in the model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Influence of Large-Scale Radiation Anomalies on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The response of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to sea surface warming is uncertain in climate models. We hypothesize that one source of uncertainty is the anomalies of large-scale atmospheric radiation in response to climate change, and whose influence on TC frequency is investigated. Given two atmospheric models with opposite TC frequency responses to uniform sea surface warming, we interchange their atmospheric radiation anomalies in experiments with prescribed radiative heating rates. The largest model discrepancy occurs in the western North Pacific, where the TC frequency tends to increase with anomalous large-scale ascent caused by prescribed positive radiation anomalies, while the TC frequency tends to decrease with anomalous large-scale descent caused by prescribed negative radiation anomalies. The model spread in TC frequency response is approximated by the model spread in the frequency response of pre-TC vortices (seeds), which is explained by changes in the large-scale circulation using a downscaling formula known as the seed propensity index. We further generalize the index to predict the influence of large-scale radiation anomalies on TC seed frequency. The results show that model spread in TC and seed frequency response can be reduced when constraining the large-scale radiation anomalies. Significance Statement It is difficult to predict whether tropical cyclones will occur more or less frequently in the future and by how much. We show that tropical cyclone frequency is strongly influenced by the global pattern of heating and cooling due to radiation, a process that has been neglected in existing theories. Our theory improves understanding of how tropical cyclones respond to climate change, explaining why one model may predict a frequency increase while a different but equally realistic model may predict a frequency decrease. One reason for the difficulty in predicting tropical cyclone frequency is found to be the difficulty in predicting how global cloud distribution will change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗