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At least 595 records · Page 33

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

water scarcity↗

Luminous blue variables at quiescence: The zone of avoidance in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram

Two phases of dynamical instability are theoretically predicted to exist during the evolution of supergiants of normal metallicity that are initially more massive than approximately 60 solar mass. One phase occurs briefly in the yellow or red region of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram for stars in the early stages of core helium burning, and the other phase occurs for a longer time in the blue or blue-white region for stars exhausting their core helium. Probably only the second phase exists in the case of supergiants with initial masses between approximately 60 solar mass and approximately 30 solar mass or with low metallicities The cause of instability is the partial ionization of hydrogen and helium in a quasi-isolated outer region of the stellar envelope, above the layer where the iron opacity attains a large local maximum. Predicted luminosities, effective temperatures, ejected nebular masses, remnant masses, eruption recurrence times, and lifetimes, though very approximate, are generally consistent with available observational data for the important class of unstable supergiants known as luminous blue variables.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

Inversion of vegetation canopy reflectance models for estimating agronomic variables. I - Problem definition and initial results using the Suits model

An important but relatively uninvestigated problem in remote sensing is the inversion of vegetative canopy reflectance models to obtain agrophysical parameters, given measured reflectances. The problem is here formally defined and its solution outlined. Numerical nonlinear optimization techniques are used to implement this inversion to obtain the leaf area index using Suits' canopy reflectance model. The results for a variety of cases indicate that this can be done successfully using infrared reflectances at different views or azimuth angles or a combination thereof. The other parameters of the model must be known, although reasonable measurement errors can be tolerated without seriously degrading the accuracy of the inversion. The application of the technique to ground based remote-sensing experiments is potentially useful, but is limited to the degree to which the canopy reflectance model can accurately predict observed reflectances.

Goel, N.↗

A Model-based Interpretation of Low-frequency Changes in the Carbon Cycle during the Last 120,000 years and its Implications for the Reconstruction of Atmospheric (delta) 14-C

A main caveat in the interpretation of observed changes in atmospheric (Delta)C-l4 during the last 50,000 years is the unknown variability of the carbon cycle, which together with changes in the C-14 production rates determines the C-14 dynamics. A plausible scenario explaining glacial/interglacial dynamics seen in atmospheric CO2 and (delta)C-13 was proposed recently (Kohler et al., 2005a). A similar approach that expands its interpretation to the C-14 cycle is an important step toward a deeper understanding of (Delta)C-14 variability. This approach is based on an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box model of the global carbon cycle (BICYCLE) to reproduce low-frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 as seen in Antarctic ice cores. The model is forced forward in time by various paleoclimatic records derived from ice and sediment cores. The simulation results of our proposed scenario match a compiled CO2 record from various ice cores during the last 120,000 years with high accuracy (r(sup 2) = 0.89). We analyze scenarios with different C-14 production rates, which are either constant or based on Be-10 measured in Greenland ice cores or the recent high-resolution geomagnetic field reconstruction GLOPIS-75 and compare them with the available (Delta)C-14 data covering the last 50,000 years. Our results suggest that during the last glacial cycle in general less than 110%0o f the increased atmospheric (Delta)C-14 is based on variations in the carbon cycle, while the largest part (5/6) of the variations has to be explained by other factors. Glacial atmospheric (Delta)C-14 larger than 700% cannot not be explained within our framework, neither through carbon cycle-based changes nor through variable C-14 production. Superimposed on these general trends might lie positive anomalies in atmospheric (Delta)C-14 of approx. 50% caused by millennial-scale variability of the northern deep water production during Heinrich events and Dansgaard/Oeschger climate fluctuations. According to our model, the dominant processes that increase glacial (Delta)C-14 are a reduced glacial ocean circulation (+ approx.40%0), a restricted glacial gas exchange between the atmosphere and the surface ocean through sea ice coverage (+ approx. 20%), and the enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon with C-14 in the surface waters through isotopic fractionation during higher glacial marine export production caused by iron fertilization (+ approx.10%).

Koehler, Peter↗

Marli: Mars Lidar for Global Wind Profiles and Aerosol Profiles from Orbit

The Mars Exploration Analysis Group's Next Orbiter Science Analysis Group (NEXSAG) has recently identified atmospheric wind measurements as one of 5 top compelling science objectives for a future Mars orbiter. To date, only isolated lander observations of martian winds exist. Winds are the key variable to understand atmospheric transport and answer fundamental questions about the three primary cycles of the martian climate: CO2, H2O, and dust. However, the direct lack of observations and imprecise and indirect inferences from temperature observations leave many basic questions about the atmospheric circulation unanswered. In addition to addressing high priority science questions, direct wind observations from orbit would help validate 3D general circulation models (GCMs) while also providing key input to atmospheric reanalyses. The dust and CO2 cycles on Mars are partially coupled and their influences on the atmospheric circulation modify the global wind field. Dust absorbs solar infrared radiation and its variable spatial distribution forces changes in the atmospheric temperature and wind fields. Thus it is important to simultaneously measure the height-resolved wind and dust profiles. MARLI provides a unique capability to observe these variables continuously, day and night, from orbit.

Orbit↗

Solution and reasoning reuse in space planning and scheduling applications

In the space domain, as in other domains, the CSP (Constraint Satisfaction Problems) techniques are increasingly used to represent and solve planning and scheduling problems. But these techniques have been developed to solve CSP's which are composed of fixed sets of variables and constraints, whereas many planning and scheduling problems are dynamic. It is therefore important to develop methods which allow a new solution to be rapidly found, as close as possible to the previous one, when some variables or constraints are added or removed. After presenting some existing approaches, this paper proposes a simple and efficient method, which has been developed on the basis of the dynamic backtracking algorithm. This method allows previous solution and reasoning to be reused in the framework of a CSP which is close to the previous one. Some experimental results on general random CSPs and on operation scheduling problems for remote sensing satellites are given.

Verfaillie, Gerard↗

Nickel-Cadmium Cell Design Variable Program Data Analysis

A program was undertaken in conjunction with the General Electric Company to evaluate 9 of the more important nickel cadmium aerospace cell designs that are currently being used or that have been used in the past 15 years. Design variables tested in this program included teflonated negative plates, silver treated negative plates, light plate loading level, no positive plate cadmium treatment, plate design of 1968 utilizing both old and new processing techniques, and electrochemically impregnated positive plates. The data acquired from these test packs in a low Earth orbit cycling regime is presented and analyzed here. This data showed conclusively that the cells manufactured with no positive plate cadmium treatment outperformed all other cell designs in all aspects of the program and that the cells with teflonated negative electrodes performed very poorly.

Morrow, G. W.↗

Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

This paper presents the first detailed characterization of interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO) to delineate the relative importance of biomass burning and large-scale transport. TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different characteristics related to interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. The Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in TCO which is out of phase with the QBO in stratospheric ozone. This is consistent with the photochemical control of this region by ozone-producing precursors. The observed pattern however does not seem to be related to interannual variability in ozone precursors related to biomass burning. Instead it appears to be a manifestation of the UV modulation of upper tropospheric chemistry on a QBO time scale caused by stratospheric ozone. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport. The observed increase of 10-20 DU in TCO in the Indonesian region in the western Pacific during the recent 1997-1998 El Nino was associated with large-scale fires which may have contributed 5-10 DU of the total increase.

Ziemke, Jerry R.↗

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Atlantic Water in the Nordic and Adjacent Seas

Warm salty Atlantic Water is the main source water for the Arctic Ocean and thus plays an important role in the mass and heat budget of the Arctic. This study explores interannual to decadal variability of Atlantic Water properties in the Nordic Seas area where Atlantic Water enters the Arctic, based on a reexamination of the historical hydrographic record for the years 1950-2009, obtained by combining multiple data sets. The analysis shows a succession of four multi-year warm events where temperature anomalies at 100m depth exceed 0.4oC, and three cold events. Three of the four warm events lasted 3-4 years, while the fourth began in 1999 and persists at least through 2009. This most recent warm event is anomalous in other ways as well, being the strongest, having the broadest geographic extent, being surface-intensified, and occurring under exceptional meteorological conditions. Three of the four warm events were accompanied by elevated salinities consistent with enhanced ocean transport into the Nordic Seas, with the exception of the event spanning July 1989-July 1993. Of the three cold events, two lasted for four years, while the third lasted for nearly 14 years. Two of the three cold events are associated with reduced salinities, but the cold event of the 1960s had elevated salinities. The relationship of these events to meteorological conditions is examined. The results show that local surface heat flux variations act in some cases to reinforce the anomalies, but are too weak to be the sole cause.

Carton, James A.↗

High enthalpy hypersonic boundary layer flow

A theoretical and experimental study of an ionizing laminar boundary layer formed by a very high enthalpy flow (in excess of 12 eV per atom or 7000 cal/gm) with allowance for the presence of helium driver gas is described. The theoretical investigation has shown that the use of variable transport properties and their respective derivatives is very important in the solution of equilibrium boundary layer equations of high enthalpy flow. The effect of low level helium contamination on the surface heat transfer rate is minimal. The variation of ionization is much smaller in a chemically frozen boundary layer solution than in an equilibrium boundary layer calculation and consequently, the variation of the transport properties in the case of the former was not essential in the integration. The experiments have been conducted in a free piston shock tunnel, and a detailed study of its nozzle operation, including the effects of low levels of helium driver gas contamination has been made. Neither the extreme solutions of an equilibrium nor of a frozen boundary layer will adequately predict surface heat transfer rate in very high enthalpy flows.

Yanow, G.↗

Finite difference procedure for boundary layers including effects of longitudinal and transverse curvatures

A second order viscous layer solution procedure has been developed that does in a consistent way include curvature effects and the corresponding normal pressure gradients. In the present system, the normal momentum equation is retained. The parabolic system of nonlinear partial differential equations is converted by linear finite differencing procedures to a system of linear algebraic equations and solved in primitive coordinates. The solutions have been shown to give smooth stable distributions for all the variables, most particularly the normal velocity which plays an important role in the interaction procedure. An algorithm for matching the viscous layer solution with a rotational characteristics outer solution has been developed.

Tassa, Y.↗

Airframe noise measurements by acoustic imaging

Studies of the noise produced by flow past wind tunnel models are presented. The central objective of these is to find the specific locations within a flow which are noisy, and to identify the fluid dynamic processes responsible, with the expectation that noise reduction principles will be discovered. The models tested are mostly simple shapes which result in types of flow that are similar to those occurring on, for example, aircraft landing gear and wheel cavities. A model landing gear and a flap were also tested. Turbulence has been intentionally induced as appropriate in order to simulate full-scale effects more closely. The principal technique involves use of a highly directional microphone system which is scanned about the flow field to be analyzed. The data so acquired are presented as a pictorial image of the noise source distribution. An important finding is that the noise production is highly variable within a flow field and that sources can be attributed to various fluid dynamic features of the flow. Flow separation was not noisy, but separation closure usually was.

Kendall, J. M.↗

The role of modern control theory in the design of controls for aircraft turbine engines

The development, applications, and current research in modern control theory (MCT) are reviewed, noting the importance for fuel-efficient operation of turbines with variable inlet guide vanes, compressor stators, and exhaust nozzle area. The evolution of multivariable propulsion control design is examined, noting a basis in a matrix formulation of the differential equations defining the process, leading to state space formulations. Reports and papers which appeared from 1970-1982 which dealt with problems in MCT applications to turbine engine control design are outlined, including works on linear quadratic regulator methods, frequency domain methods, identification, estimation, and model reduction, detection, isolation, and accommodation, and state space control, adaptive control, and optimization approaches. Finally, NASA programs in frequency domain design, sensor failure detection, computer-aided control design, and plant modeling are explored

Zeller, J.↗

Ode to gravity: Depth/diameter for fresh craters on Mercury

Opinions conflict over the role of surface gravity in shaping impact craters on Mercury. One view holds that the effects of g are evident in measurable aspects of crater form; other investigators find little or no evidence for g's geomorphic importance. Ambiguity in the role of g and other variables in cratering on Mercury stems largely from uncertainty in identifying major geomorphic contrasts and the crater sizes at which they occur. One of these, depth/diameter (d/D), undergoes a major change at the transition from simple (bowl shaped) to complex (peaks and terraces) crater interiors. Four least-squares d/D fits for fresh craters on Mercury were attemped. The results are inconsistent. The d/D data that should resolve previous shortcomings is presented. The revised d/D distributions for simple and complex craters, which intersect at a diameter of about 5 km, support the initial thesis that g substantially influences the form of Mercury's craters.

Pike, R. J.↗

The solar spectral irradiance between 150 and 200 nm

The absorption of solar photons controls the composition of the middle atmosphere. Concern about the effects of man's industrial activities on his environment has led to a number of long-term programs related to stratospheric photochemistry. An important part of these programs represents studies of the variability of the sun's solar spectral irradiance. A program to measure the solar ultraviolet flux, both within and outside the earth's atmosphere, has been in progress for a number of years. This program has the objective to develop techniques which would provide an absolute accuracy of at least 5 percent. The amount of satellite instrument degradation is determined on the basis of a comparison of data provided by these instruments with data obtained in connection with rocket flights. It was found that a significant decrease in the solar irradiance below 190 nm occurred between 1980 and 1981.

Mentall, J. E.↗

A Bayesian approach to nonlinear inversion

Powerful methods are now available for solving linear parametric inverse problems. However, many inverse problems which arise in geohysics are nonlinear. Fortunately, it is possible to treat most of these with the air of linear perturbation theory and liner inversion. But a convenient method is needed for assessing the importance of nonlinearity in these quasi-linear problems. The present paper provides such a method. Matsu'ura and Jackson (1984) have presented a simple algorithm for evaluating the asymptotic covariance matrix fo estimation errors. In the present investigation, aspects of linear inversion are discussed, taking into account linear parametric inverse problems, nonuniqueness, prior information, confidence limits, conditional and marginal statistics, the relative importance of the prior and observational data, and standardized variables. Attention is also given to nonlinear inversion, and the application of the considered approaches to a number of examples.

Jackson, D. D.↗

Statistics and dynamics of persistent anomalies

Persistent anomalies with recurrent spatial patterns play an important role in the atmosphere's low-frequency variability. A connection between statistical and dynamical methods of description and prediction of persistent anomalies is established by computing and analyzing the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in a simple deterministic model, on the one hand, and in Southern Hemisphere geopotential heights, on the other. The dynamical model is governed by the fully nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere, with simplified forcing, dissipation and topography. The Southern Hemisphere data consist in gridded daily maps of 500 mb heights from June 1972 to July 1983. Two types of persistent anomalies appear in this time series, both having a strong wavenumber-three component; they differ by the value of the constant phase of this wave and by the strength of the wavenumber-one component. The first two EOFs bear a striking resemblance to these two patterns. It is concluded that the dynamical interpretation of EOFs is their pointing from the time mean to the most populated regions of the system's phase space. Pursuing this interpretation, a Markov-chain formulation of transitions from one persistent anomaly regime to another is introduced, and the implications for long-range forecasting are discussed.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗

Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection - A possible link between the 40-50 day oscillation and ENSO?

Twelve-years of NOAA data on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are used to trace intraseasonal variations of tropical convection by examining the spatial patterns of OLR variance in the 1-5 day, 20-70 day, and longer-than-180 day bands separately for the northern summer and winter. Based on these patterns, the relative importance of these bands are evaluated and the natural variability of the climate signal and the geographical distribution of potential predictability is assessed. The results of empirical orthogonal functional analyses show that multiple time scales exist in the most dominant patterns of tropical convection variation. These time scales can be identified with those of the 40-50-day oscillation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and the annual cycle. Interpretation of the results in terms of possible interaction between these various time scales is presented.

Lau, Ka-Ming↗