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DOE OSTI2024

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

The effects of scattering geometry on the spectrophotometric properties of powdered material

The characteristics of reflectance spectra are being used as a basis in investigations to infer the composition of planetary surfaces. However, the reflectance spectra of powdered materials depend not only on the composition of these materials, but also on other variables. A description is presented of the results of an exploratory series of measurements designed to investigate the importance of scattering geometry as a variable in determining the shapes of spectral reflectance curves, taking into account half a dozen materials of planetary interest. It is noted that the considered results are consistent with those reported by Adams and Felice (1967), especially the results on the variation with phase angle of the Red/Blue color ratio for various silicate materials. The measurements demonstrate in detail that scattering geometry does affect the shapes of spectral reflectance curve. In some cases this effect is quite significant.

Gradie, J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Impacts of Water Clarity Variability on Temperature and Biogeochemistry in the Chesapeake Bay

Estuarine water clarity depends on the concentrations of aquatic constituents, such as colored dissolved organic matter, phytoplankton, inorganic suspended solids, and detritus, which are influenced by variations in riverine inputs. These constituents directly affect temperature because when water is opaque, sunlight heats a shallower layer of the water compared to when it is clear. Despite the importance of accurately predicting temperature variability, many numerical modeling studies do not adequately account for this key process. In this study, we quantify the effect of water clarity on heating by comparing two simulations of a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of the Chesapeake Bay for the years 2001–2005, in which (1) water clarity is constant in space and time for the computation of solar heating, compared to (2) a simulation where water clarity varies with modeled concentrations of light-attenuating materials. In the variable water clarity simulation, the water is more opaque, particularly in the northern region of the Bay. This decrease in water clarity reduces the total heat, phytoplankton, and nitrate throughout the Bay. During the spring and summer months, surface temperatures in the northern Bay are warmer by 0.1 °C and bottom temperatures are colder by 0.2 °C in the variable light attenuation simulation. Warmer surface temperatures encourage phytoplankton growth and nutrient uptake near the head of the Bay, and fewer nutrients are transported downstream. These impacts are greater during higher river flow years, when differences in temperature, nutrients, phytoplankton, and zooplankton extend further seaward compared to other years. This study demonstrates the consequences of utilizing different light calculations for estuarine heating and biogeochemistry.

water clarity↗

DOE OSTI2023

The underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems in the Northern and Eastern United States

Spring phenology of temperate ecosystems is highly sensitive to climate change, generating various impacts on many important terrestrial surface biophysical processes. Although various prognostic models relying on environmental variables of temperature and photoperiod have been developed for spring phenology, comprehensive ecosystem-scale evaluations over large landscapes and long-time periods remain lacking. Further, environmental variables other than temperature and photoperiod might also importantly constrain spring phenology modelling but remain under-investigation. To address these issues, we leveraged around 20-years datasets of environmental variables (from Daymet and GLDAS products) and the spring phenology metric (i.e., the greenup date) respectively derived from MODIS and PhenoCams across 108 sites in the Northern and Eastern United States. We firstly cross-compared MODIS-derived greenup date with official PhenoCams product with high accuracy (R 2 = 0.70). Then, we evaluated the three prognostic models (i.e., Growing Degree Date (GDD), Sequential (SEQ) and optimality-based (OPT)) with MODIS-derived spring phenology, assessed the model residuals and their associations with soil moisture, rainfall, and solar radiation, and revised the two photoperiod-relevant models (SEQ, OPT) by replacing the daylength variable with solar radiation, which was found to contribute the most to model residuals. We found that 1) all models demonstrated good capability in characterizing spring phenology, with OPT performing the best (RMSE = 8.04 ± 5.05 days), followed by SEQ (RMSE = 10.57 ± 7.77 days) and GDD (RMSE = 10.84 ± 8.42 days), 2) all models displayed high model residuals showing tight correlation with solar radiation (r = 0.45–0.75), and 3) the revised models that included solar radiation significantly performed better with an RMSE reduction by 22.08%. Such results are likely because solar radiation better constrains early growing season plant photosynthesis than photoperiod, supporting the hypothesis of spring phenology as an adaptive strategy to maximize photosynthetic carbon gain (approximated by solar radiation) while minimizing frost damage risk (captured by temperature). Collectively, our study here reveals the underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems, and suggests ways to improve spring phenology modelling and other phenology-related ecological processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Variation in supercurrent connectivity and vortex pinning of state-of-the-art pulsed laser deposited RE Ba 2 Cu 3 O 7- x coated conductors

REBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x (REBCO, RE: rare earth) coated conductors (CCs) suffer from great critical current I c differences between different manufacturers, I c variations within individual manufacturers, and often significant lengthwise fluctuations. The understanding of such variations is complicated by the lack of a direct correlation between I c and the critical current density J c . In fact, although J c is the fundamental property determined by the local vortex pinning landscape, I c is often limited by variable current blocking mechanisms. An important practical complexity is commercial practices of performing J c and I c evaluations based on I c at 77 K and self-field (sf), where connectivity variation dominates over vortex pinning variations. However, at higher fields and lower temperatures, vortex pinning becomes more complex and highly variable, making predictions of I c and J c at arbitrary temperature T, magnetic field H, and field orientation θ, quite uncertain. To address some aspects of this problem, we conducted detailed spool-to-spool performance characterization on recently manufactured REBCO CCs. Despite J c (77 K, sf) varies by only ∼11%, J c (77 K, 1 T) of its minimum and maximum (for H//ab-plane) show variations of ∼21% and ∼32%, respectively. This emphasizes the shortcoming in using J c (77 K, sf) as parameter for evaluating even the low field performance. An even more remarkable spool-to-spool J c variation of ∼68% was observed at 20 K and 15 T for H//ab-plane. To identify the origin of such lack of reproducibility we performed microstructural characterizations, which revealed, within the REBCO layer, large variation in the density of copper oxide (CuO x ) particles ranging from 0.1 to 2 μm in size. We believe that they play a decisive role in reducing the effective cross-section of the REBCO layer by not simply blocking current themselves, but also by nucleating off-axis REBCO grains, whose misoriented grain boundaries adversely impact REBCO grain-to-grain connectivity. The REBCO growth associated with high density CuO x particles also leads to the more disordered spatial arrangement of BaHfO 3 precipitate arrays, which, when self-aligning along the ab-planes, generate stronger pinning enhancing J c (H//ab) at all temperatures. In this way, we established that variations of both connectivity and vortex pinning are thus directly coupled. Our results also explain why the so-called ‘lift-factor’, typically defined by the ratio between I c (T, H) and I c (77 K, sf), frequently turns out to be unreliable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning

Focal area(s): To improve predictions of sea ice in E3SM we propose to develop a hierarchy of data-driven models using observational and simulation data to investigate the most important Earth system drivers of sea ice variability and loss, develop surrogates that build on the reduced parameter space of important drivers, and, where appropriate, couple machine learning models with standard PDE models to capture important physical behavior at different scales. This work falls under Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Space sickness predictors suggest fluid shift involvement and possible countermeasures

Preflight data from 64 first time Shuttle crew members were examined retrospectively to predict space sickness severity (NONE, MILD, MODERATE, or SEVERE) by discriminant analysis. From 9 input variables relating to fluid, electrolyte, and cardiovascular status, 8 variables were chosen by discriminant analysis that correctly predicted space sickness severity with 59 pct. success by one method of cross validation on the original sample and 67 pct. by another method. The 8 variables in order of their importance for predicting space sickness severity are sitting systolic blood pressure, serum uric acid, calculated blood volume, serum phosphate, urine osmolality, environmental temperature at the launch site, red cell count, and serum chloride. These results suggest the presence of predisposing physiologic factors to space sickness that implicate a fluid shift etiology. Addition of a 10th input variable, hours spent in the Weightless Environment Training Facility (WETF), improved the prediction of space sickness severity to 66 pct. success by the first method of cross validation on the original sample and to 71 pct. by the second method. The data suggest that WETF training may reduce space sickness severity.

Simanonok, K. E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial and temporal trends and variabilities of hailstones in the United States Northern Great Plains and their possible attributions

Following on our study of hail for the Southern Great Plains (SGP), we investigated the spatial and temporal hail trends and variabilities for the Northern Great Plains (NGP) and the contributing factors for summer seasons (June–August) over 2004–2016 using two independent hail datasets. Both severe hail (1 < diameter = 2 inches) and significant severe hail (diameter > 2 inches) were examined and similar results were obtained. The hailstones in the NGP demonstrate a large interannual variability, with an overall increasing trend over 2004–2016. Spatially, the positive trend is mainly located in the western part of South Dakota and North Dakota. We find the three major dynamical factors that most likely contribute to the hail interannual variability in the NGP are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and low-level jet (LLJ). With a thermodynamical variable integrated water vapor transport (IVT) that is strongly controlled by LLJ, the four factors can explain 76% of the hail interannual variability from the hail reports based on the multivariate linear regression. Hail occurrences are 73% higher during the cold phase of ENSO (La Nin~a) than the warm phase of ENSO (El Nin~o). When the NASH has a larger northwestward expansion or stronger intensity, more hail occurs over the NGP, because the increases of latitudinal gradient of pressure leads to a stronger LLJ. Interestingly, the important factors impacting hail interannual variability over the NGP are quite different from those for the SGP, except ENSO.

Jeong, Jong-Hoon↗

NASA NTRS2017

Patterns of Canopy and Surface Layer Consumption in a Boreal Forest Fire from Repeat Airborne Lidar

Fire in the boreal region is the dominant agent of forest disturbance with direct impacts on ecosystem structure, carbon cycling, and global climate. Global and biome-scale impacts are mediated by burn severity, measured as loss of forest canopy and consumption of the soil organic layer. To date, knowledge of the spatial variability in burn severity has been limited by sparse field sampling and moderate resolution satellite data. Here, we used pre- and post-fire airborne lidar data to directly estimate changes in canopy vertical structure and surface elevation for a 2005 boreal forest fire on Alaskas Kenai Peninsula. We found that both canopy and surface losses were strongly linked to pre-fire species composition and exhibited important fine-scale spatial variability at sub-30m resolution. The fractional reduction in canopy volume ranged from 0.61 in lowland black spruce stands to 0.27 in mixed white spruce and broad leaf forest. Residual structure largely reflects standing dead trees, highlighting the influence of pre-fire forest structure on delayed carbon losses from above ground biomass, post-fire albedo, and variability in understory light environments. Median loss of surface elevation was highest in lowland black spruce stands (0.18 m) but much lower in mixed stands (0.02 m), consistent with differences in pre-fire organic layer accumulation. Spatially continuous depth-of-burn estimates from repeat lidar measurements provide novel information to constrain carbon emissions from the surface organic layer and may inform related research on post-fire successional trajectories. Spectral measures of burn severity from Landsat were correlated with canopy (r = 0.76) and surface (r = -0.71) removal in black spruce stands but captured less of the spatial variability in fire effects for mixed stands (canopy r = 0.56, surface r = -0.26), underscoring the difficulty in capturing fire effects in heterogeneous boreal forest landscapes using proxy measures of burn severity from Landsat.

Alonzo, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1987

One-dimensional wave propagation in rods of variable cross section: A WKBJ solution

As an important step in the characterization of a particular dynamic surface displacement transducer (IQI Model 501), a one-dimensional wave propagation in isotropic nonpiezoelectric and piezoelectric rods of variable cross section are presented. With the use of the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin-Jeffreys (WKBJ) approximate solution technique, an approximate formula, which relates the ratio of the amplitudes of a propagating wave observed at any two locations along the rod to the ratio of the cross sectional radii at these respective locations, is derived. The domains of frequency for which the approximate solution is valid are discussed for piezoelectric and nonpiezoelectric materials.

Ochi, Simeon C. U.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Variable-Selection Heuristics in Local Search for SAT

One of the important components of a local search strategy for satisfiability testing is the variable selection heuristic, which determines the next variable to be flipped.

variable selection↗

NASA NTRS1982

Optimization of Dish Solar Collectors with and without Secondary Concentrators

Methods for optimizing parabolic dish solar collectors and the consequent effects of various optical, thermal, mechanical, and cost variables are examined. The most important performance optimization is adjusting the receiver aperture to maximize collector efficiency. Other parameters that can be adjusted to optimize efficiency include focal length, and, if a heat engine is used, the receiver temperature. The efficiency maxima associated with focal length and receiver temperature are relatively broad; it may, accordingly, be desirable to design somewhat away from the maxima. Performance optimization is sensitive to the slope and specularity errors of the concentrator. Other optical and thermal variables affecting optimization are the reflectance and blocking factor of the concentrator, the absorptance and losses of the receiver, and, if a heat engine is used, the shape of the engine efficiency versus temperature curve. Performance may sometimes be improved by use of an additional optical element (a secondary concentrator) or a receiver window if the errors of the primary concentrator are large or the receiver temperature is high.

Jaffe, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Optimization of dish solar collectors

Jaffe, L. D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A global perspective on bacterial diversity in the terrestrial deep subsurface

While recent efforts to catalogue Earth’s microbial diversity have focused upon surface and marine habitats, 12–20% of Earth’s biomass is suggested to exist in the terrestrial deep subsurface, compared to ~1.8% in the deep subseafloor. Metagenomic studies of the terrestrial deep subsurface have yielded a trove of divergent and functionally important microbiomes from a range of localities. However, a wider perspective of microbial diversity and its relationship to environmental conditions within the terrestrial deep subsurface is still required. Our meta-analysis reveals that terrestrial deep subsurface microbiota are dominated by Betaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and Firmicutes, probably as a function of the diverse metabolic strategies of these taxa. Evidence was also found for a common small consortium of prevalent Betaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria operational taxonomic units across the localities. This implies a core terrestrial deep subsurface community, irrespective of aquifer lithology, depth and other variables, that may play an important role in colonizing and sustaining microbial habitats in the deep terrestrial subsurface. An in silico contamination-aware approach to analysing this dataset underscores the importance of downstream methods for assuring that robust conclusions can be reached from deep subsurface-derived sequencing data. Understanding the global panorama of microbial diversity and ecological dynamics in the deep terrestrial subsurface provides a first step towards understanding the role of microbes in global subsurface element and nutrient cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of solar spectra from rockets and spacecraft

Models and spectra of sunspots were studied, because they are important to energy balance and variability discussions. Sunspot observations in the ultraviolet region 140 to 168 nn was obtained by the NRL High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph. Extensive photometric observations of sunspot umbrae and prenumbrae in 10 chanels covering the wavelength region 387 to 3800 nm were made. Cool star opacities and model atmospheres were computed. The Sun is the first testcase, both to check the opacity calculations against the observed solar spectrum, and to check the purely theoretical model calculation against the observed solar energy distribution. Line lists were finally completed for all the molecules that are important in computing statistical opacities for energy balance and for radiative rate calculations in the Sun (except perhaps for sunspots). Because many of these bands are incompletely analyzed in the laboratory, the energy levels are not well enough known to predict wavelengths accurately for spectrum synthesis and for detailed comparison with the observations.

Avrett, E. H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data: Preprint

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning model and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning regressor ensemble model, comprised of a random forest and an XGBoost model, and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Computational Schemes on Coupled Flow and Geo-Mechanical Modeling of CO 2 Leakage through a Compromised Well

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technically viable processes to separate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial byproduct streams and inject it into deep geologic formations for long-term storage. Legacy wells located within the spatial domain of new injection and production activities represent potential pathways for fluids (i.e., CO 2 and aqueous phase) to leak through compromised components (e.g., through fractures or micro-annulus pathways). The finite element (FE) method is a well-established numerical approach to simulate the coupling between multi-phase fluid flow and solid phase deformation interactions that occur in a compromised well system. We assumed the spatial domain consists of a three-phases system: a solid, liquid, and gas phase. For flow in the two fluids phases, we considered two sets of primary variables: the first considering capillary pressure and gas pressure (PP) scheme, and the second considering liquid pressure and gas saturation (PS) scheme. Fluid phases were coupled with the solid phase using the full coupling (i.e., monolithic coupling) and iterative coupling (i.e., sequential coupling) approaches. The challenge of achieving numerical stability in the coupled formulation in heterogeneous media was addressed using the mass lumping and the upwinding techniques. Numerical results were compared with three benchmark problems to assess the performance of coupled FE solutions: 1D Terzaghi’s consolidation, Liakopoulos experiments, and the Kueper and Frind experiments. We found good agreement between our results and the three benchmark problems. For the Kueper and Frind test, the PP scheme successfully captured the observed experimental response of the non-aqueous phase infiltration, in contrast to the PS scheme. These exercises demonstrate the importance of fluid phase primary variable selection for heterogeneous porous media. We then applied the developed model to the hypothetical case of leakage along a compromised well representing a heterogeneous media. Considering the mass lumping and the upwinding techniques, both the monotonic and the sequential coupling provided identical results, but mass lumping was needed to avoid numerical instabilities in the sequential coupling. Additionally, in the monolithic coupling, the magnitude of primary variables in the coupled solution without mass lumping and the upwinding is higher, which is essential for the risk-based analyses.

deformation flow↗