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At least 595 records · Page 33

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NASA NTRS2021

Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans

While forecasts of atmospheric variables, and to a lesser degree ocean circulation, are relatively common, the forecast of biogeochemical conditions is still in its infancy. Using a dynamical ocean biogeochemical forecast forced by seasonal forecasts of atmospheric and physical ocean variables, we produce seasonal predictions of chlorophyll concentration at the global scale. Results show significant Anomaly Correlation Coefficients (ACCs) for the majority of regions (11 out of the 12 regions for the 1-month lead forecast). Root mean square errors are smaller (<0.05μg chlorophyll (chl) L−1) in the Equatorial regions compared to the higher latitudes(range from 0.05 up to 0.13 μg chl L−1). The forecast for all regions except three (North Atlantic, South Pacific and North Indian) are within the Semi-Interquartile Range of the satellite chlorophyll concentration (Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP), 27.9%). This suggests the potential for skillful global biogeochemical forecasts on seasonal timescales of chlorophyll, primary production and harmful algal blooms that could support fisheries management and other applications.

ocean biogeochemistry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven estimation of energy consumption for electric bus under real-world driving conditions

Reliable and accurate estimation of an electric bus’s instantaneous energy consumption is critical in evaluating energy impacts of planning and control of electric bus operations. In this study, we developed machine learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate 1 Hz energy consumption of electric buses based on continuous monitoring data of electric buses in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2019 and 2020. We propose a data-partitioning algorithm to separate energy charging and discharging modes before applying data-driven estimation models. Here, a K-fold cross-validation-based model selection process was conducted to identify the optimal model structure and input variables in terms of prediction accuracy. The estimation results show the predicted mean absolute percentage error rates of LSTM and ANN models were 3% and 5%, respectively. We compared the proposed models with existing models in the literature based on the same testing data to demonstrate the predictability of our models.

Artificial neural network↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Wind Turbine Design for H2 Production

NREL and industrial partners GE and Nel seek to advance affordable green hydrogen production by optimizing wind turbine design specifically for hydrogen production and validating designs using NREL's ARIES facilities. This project will couple wind turbine, wind plant, solar plant, and electrolyzer models to predict hydrogen production from variable, renewable power sources. It will then use gradient-based optimization with exact-analytic gradients to optimize wind turbine rotor diameter, hub height, and power rating for optimal hydrogen production. Finally, it will validate the optimal turbine designs using the ARIES research platform, where it will compare a baseline turbine to the optimal design for a variety of scenarios and resources.

electrolyzer↗

DOE OSTI2022

Review of Wave Energy Converter Power Take-Off Systems, Testing Practices, and Evaluation Metrics: Preprint

While the field of wave energy has been the subject of numerical simulation, scale model testing, and precommercial project testing for decades, wave energy technologies remain in the early stages of development and must continuing proving themselves as a promising modern renewable energy field. One of the difficulties that wave energy systems have been struggling to overcome is the design of highly efficient energy conversion systems that can convert the mechanical power, derived from the oscillation of wave activated bodies, into another useful product. Often the power take-off (PTO) is defined as the single unit responsible for converting mechanical power into another usable form such as electricity, pressurized fluid, compressed air, and others. The PTO, and the entire power conversion chain (PCC), is of great importance as it affects not only how efficient wave power is converted into electricity, but also contributes to the mass, size, structural dynamics, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the wave energy converter (WEC). Unlike wind and solar, there is no industrial standard device, or devices, for wave energy conversion and this diversity is transferred to the PTO system. The majority of current WEC PTO systems incorporate a mechanical or hydraulic drive train, power generator, and an electrical control system. The challenge of WEC PTO designs is designing a mechanical-to-electrical component that can efficiently convert irregular, bi-directional, low frequency and low alternating velocity wave motions. While gross average power levels can be predicted in advance, the variable wave elevation input has to be converted into smooth electrical output and hence usually necessitates some type of energy storage system, such as battery storage, accumulator super capacitors, etc., or other means of compensation such as an array of devices. One of the primary challenges for wave energy converter systems is the fluctuating nature of wave resources, which require WEC components to be designed to handle loads (i.e. torques, forces, and powers) that are many times greater than the average load. This approach requires a much greater PTO capacity than the average power output and indicates a higher cost. In addition, supporting mechanical coupling and or gearing can be added to the PCC to help alleviate the difficulties with transmission and control of fluctuating large loads with low frequencies (indicative of wave forcing) into smaller loads at higher frequencies (optimum for conventional electrical machine design) can quickly increase the complexity of the PCC which could result in a greater number of failure modes and increased maintenance costs. All of the previous points demonstrate how the PTO influences WEC dynamics, reliability, performance and cost which are critical design factors. This paper further explores these topics by providing a review of the state-of-the-art PTO systems currently under development, how these novel PTO systems are tested and derisked prior to precommercial deployment, and the evaluation metrics historically used to differentiate between PTO designs and how they can be improved to support control co-design focused development of wave energy systems.

laboratory testing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Wind Turbine Design for H2 Production

The Optimal Wind Turbine Design for Hydrogen Production work seeks to address the H2@Scale program's goal to "advance affordable hydrogen production" by optimizing the wind turbine design specifically for hydrogen (H2) production. The project identifies optimal wind turbine designs made specifically for hydrogen production to advance affordable green hydrogen production. The project also couples wind turbine, wind plant, solar plant, and electrolyzer models to predict hydrogen production from variable, renewable power sources.

electrolyzer↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Wind for Commercial Loads

Distributed wind can help meet on site energy and resilience needs for a wide variety of commercial loads .While it is a variable resource, it has predictable daily and annual production trends. The presence of on-site renewable generation can enhance resilience, supplying power for long periods of time without worrying about conserving fuel supply. The addition of properly sized storage or complementary solar resources can further reduce the challenges of intermittency and reduce the need for fuel-limited backup power during outage situations. This fact sheet explores further the energy and resilience requirements of commercial loads and how distributed wind may be a good match to meet their load needs.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Wind for Commercial Loads

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Charged-current Muon Neutrino–argon Interactions Without Final-state Pions Using the MicroBooNE Detector

This thesis presents a new high-statistics measurement of flux-integrated single- and double-differential cross sections for charged-current muon neutrino interactions on argon nuclei without final-state pions. The analysis utilizes the full 1.3 $\times$ $10^{21}$ protons-on-target dataset collected by the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber between 2015 and 2020 at Fermilab's Booster Neutrino Beam. The results of this study are reported with respect to final-state muon kinematic variables and compared with predictions from commonly used neutrino event generators. In one-dimensional distributions, all generators perform reasonably well. However, in two dimensions, only a few demonstrate good agreement with the data. These findings provide valuable insight into characterizing neutrino-nucleon interactions. Such advancements are vital for future long-baseline neutrino experiments, which aim to accurately measure neutrino oscillation and investigate beyond-the-Standard-Model physics with high sensitivity.

Englezos, Panagiotis [Rutgers U., Piscataway (main↗

DOE OSTI2026

Degassing fluxes in a temperate hydropower reservoir predictable by deep‐water dissolved oxygen but highly sensitive to discharge variability

Hydropower reservoirs contribute to methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, like all aquatic ecosystems. Unique to hydropower reservoirs are degassing emissions that occur when deep-water intakes move water with high CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations through turbines, leading to the release of these gases. However, few studies from hydropower reservoirs have measured seasonal variability and drivers of degassing fluxes, especially in temperate systems. We measured monthly degassing emissions in temperate Douglas Reservoir (Tennessee, USA) from 2023 to 2024. We found that degassing fluxes were highest in the summertime, and deep-water CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations were predictable by deep-water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. Degassing emissions accounted for 37–62% of annually estimated CH 4 emissions, outweighing ebullitive emissions during summer months. We highlight the value of using DO data to estimate deep-water CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations and degassing fluxes at higher temporal resolution to improve annualization and extrapolation of reservoir degassing emissions at broader scales.

Pilla, Rachel M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

NASA NTRS1992

Space sickness predictors suggest fluid shift involvement and possible countermeasures

Preflight data from 64 first time Shuttle crew members were examined retrospectively to predict space sickness severity (NONE, MILD, MODERATE, or SEVERE) by discriminant analysis. From 9 input variables relating to fluid, electrolyte, and cardiovascular status, 8 variables were chosen by discriminant analysis that correctly predicted space sickness severity with 59 pct. success by one method of cross validation on the original sample and 67 pct. by another method. The 8 variables in order of their importance for predicting space sickness severity are sitting systolic blood pressure, serum uric acid, calculated blood volume, serum phosphate, urine osmolality, environmental temperature at the launch site, red cell count, and serum chloride. These results suggest the presence of predisposing physiologic factors to space sickness that implicate a fluid shift etiology. Addition of a 10th input variable, hours spent in the Weightless Environment Training Facility (WETF), improved the prediction of space sickness severity to 66 pct. success by the first method of cross validation on the original sample and to 71 pct. by the second method. The data suggest that WETF training may reduce space sickness severity.

Simanonok, K. E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Estimating risk for earth-satellite attenuation prediction

Annual cumulative distributions of attenuation measurements and of rain-rate measurements were obtained from several locations in Europe and the United States. They were analyzed to estimate the year-to-year variability to be associated with a prediction of the expected cumulative distribution. Two models were constructed to estimate variability, an ad hoc model that summarized a number of observations when compared to model predictions and a probabilistic model that applied the ideas of order statistics to the prediction problem when the number of independent attenuation or rain-rate events in a sample year could be estimated. Based on these models, the statistical uncertainty in a model prediction may be estimated. The estimation procedure also provides an answer to the question of the number of years of observation needed to provide an estimate of the empirical distribution with a specified statistical uncertainty.

Crane, Robert K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

EBSD seed LDRD project: Does Corona Virus – 2019 (COVID-19) and Seasonal Flu have similar meteorology and air quality controls driving their spread?

Seasonal influenza and Influenza like Illnesses (ILI) pose a serious public health risk and in turn affect the economy. Various factors affect ILI cases and mortality, including the pathogen and its interaction with the host, as well as environmental and socioeconomic factors such as meteorology, household structure, air pollution, urbanization, and population. Despite the growing number of studies on influenza and ILI, challenges remain in forecasting the timing of seasonal onset, outbreak patterns, and key factors affecting transmission. In particular, the impacts of meteorology and air quality on ILI have been challenging to understand, with linear regression studies focused on different geographic regions producing contradictory results. For example, influenza seasonality has been associated with cold-dry conditions in temperate mid-latitudes, but with humid-rainy conditions in tropical climates. These apparently contradictory results imply that the relationships between influenza cases and atmospheric variables may be too complex to be captured by linear regression models. In this seed project, we analyze meteorology and air quality variables from numerical models to determine which atmospheric variables are most helpful in predicting weekly changes in recorded flu cases. In contrast to most previous studies that relied on linear regression analysis to predict the timing of the flu onset or peak, we employ a robust machine learning algorithm to evaluate the contribution of atmospheric variables to weekly changes in recorded ILI cases. These results may also be relevant to the spread of other respiratory illnesses such as Corona Virus Disease – 2019 (COVID-19).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

OMV/VTE variable thrust engine analysis

The objective of the present work is to develop a predictive CFD based analytical tool for the Variable Thrust Engine (VTE) in the Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV). This objective is being accomplished within the framework of the Los Alamos KIVA computer code for chemically reactive flows with sprays. For the OMV application, the main structure of KIVA is to be retained while reformulating many of the phenomenological submodels, enhancing some of the numerics, and adding more features. The analytical model consists of the general conservation equations for two-phase reactive flows and of submodels for turbulence, chemical reactions, and bipropellant sprays. Tailoring this model to the OMV engine brings about the added complexities of combustion and flow processes that occur in a liquid hypergolic propellant rocket chamber. This report exposes the foundation upon which the analytical tool is being constructed and developed. Results from a cursory computational exercise involving the simulation of the flow and combustion processes in a hypothetical N2H4/N204 rocket engine thrust chamber is presented and discussed.

Larosillere, L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

OMV/VTE variable thrust engine analysis

The objective of the present work is to develop a predictive CFD based analytical tool for the variable thrust engine (VTE) in the orbital maneuvering vehicle (OMV). This objective is being accomplished within the framework of the Los Alamos KIVA computer code for chemically reactive flows with sprays. For the OMV application, the main structure of KIVA is to be retained while reformulating many of the phenomenological submodels, enhancing some of the numerics, and adding more features. The analytical model consists of the general conservation equations for two phase reactive flows and of submodels for turbulence, chemical reactions, and bipropellant sprays. Tailoring this model to the OMV engine brings about the added complexities of combustion and flow processes that occur in a liquid hypergolic propellant rocket chamber. This report exposes the foundation upon which the analytical tool is being constructed and developed. Results from a cursory computational exercise involving the simulation of the flow and combustion processes in a hypothetical N2H4/N2O4 rocket engine thrust chamber is presented and discussed.

Larosillere, Louis↗

NASA NTRS1979

Evaluation of a pilot workload metric for simulated VTOL landing tasks

A methodological approach to measuring workload was investigated for evaluation of new concepts in VTOL aircraft displays. Multivariate discriminant functions were formed from conventional flight performance and/or visual response variables to maximize detection of experimental differences. The flight performance variable discriminant showed maximum differentiation between crosswind conditions. The visual response measure discriminant maximized differences between fixed vs. motion base conditions and experimental displays. Physiological variables were used to attempt to predict the discriminant function values for each subject/condition/trial. The weights of the physiological variables in these equations showed agreement with previous studies. High muscle tension, light but irregular breathing patterns, and higher heart rate with low amplitude all produced higher scores on this scale and thus, represented higher workload levels.

North, R. A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving five-year survival prediction via multitask learning across HPV-related cancers

Oncology is a highly siloed field of research in which sub-disciplinary specialization has limited the amount of information shared between researchers of distinct cancer types. This can be attributed to legitimate differences in the physiology and carcinogenesis of cancers affecting distinct anatomical sites. However, underlying processes that are shared across seemingly disparate cancers probably affect prognosis. The objective of the current study is to investigate whether multitask learning improves 5-year survival cancer patient survival prediction by leveraging information across anatomically distinct HPV related cancers. Furthermore, data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database. The study cohort consisted of 29,768 primary cancer cases diagnosed in the United States between 2004 and 2015. Ten different cancer diagnoses were selected, all with a known association with HPV risk. In the analysis, the cancer diagnoses were categorized into three distinct topography groups of varying specificity. The most specific topography grouping consisted of 10 original cancer diagnoses differentiated by the first two digits of the ICD-O-3 topography code. The second topography grouping consisted of cancer diagnoses categorized into six distinct organ groups. Finally, the third topography grouping consisted of just two groups, head-neck cancers and ano-genital cancers. The tasks were to predict 5-year survival for patients within the different topography groups using 14 predictive features which were selected among descriptive variables available in the SEER database. The information from the predictive features was shared between tasks in three different ways, resulting in three distinct predictive models: 1) Information was not shared between patients assigned to different tasks (single task learning); 2) Information was shared between all patients, regardless of task (pooled model); 3) Only relevant information was shared between patients grouped to different tasks (multitask learning). Prediction performance was evaluated with Brier scores. All three models were evaluated against one another on each of the three distinct topography-defined tasks. The results showed that multitask classifiers achieved relative improvement for the majority of the scenarios studied compared to single task learning and pooled baseline methods. In this study, we have demonstrated that sharing information among anatomically distinct cancer types can lead to improved predictive survival models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗