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At least 595 records · Page 33

On the role of Battery Energy Storage Systems in the day-ahead Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment problem under renewable penetration

The integration of variable Renewable Energy Sources (vRES) to alleviate greenhouse gas emissions has introduced significant challenges for power systems operations. These challenges include high levels of uncertainty due to the intermittence associated with vRES and therefore impose the need to devise a reliable and cost-effective day-ahead unit commitment and power and reserves scheduling for real-time operations. Also, this increasing penetration of vRES requires higher ramping capabilities from units originally designed for other purposes (e.g., base-load generation), which might be exacerbated during contingency states. Hence, in this work, we propose a methodology to address the day-ahead Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment (CCUC) problem that leverages the participation of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSs) to address load-following and post-contingency management, therefore alleviating the ramping burden on conventional thermal generators. To do so, we formulate a three-level optimization problem that represents the decision-making process of obtaining the least-cost commitment, generation and reserves scheduling, while restricting the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of the system imbalance at real-time operations to user-defined tolerance levels. In addition, we devise a computationally efficient solution approach for the proposed problem based on the Column-and Constraint Generation (CCG) algorithmic framework. Two numerical experiments are conducted to empirically illustrate the benefits of the proposed methodology. Key results indicate a reduction in real-time ramping needs and a better usage of the system resources, with a reduction in the overall system commitment levels and reserve scheduling costs when compared to a benchmark case in which storage is not available.

Moreira, Alexandre↗

Identifying Disadvantaged Communities in the United States: An Energy-Oriented Mapping Tool that Aggregates Environmental and Socioeconomic Burdens

This paper defines a policy-relevant nationwide composite index to identify communities disproportionately impacted by environmental, energy, and climate injustices in the United States. We review existing vulnerability indicators and indices to assess the tradeoffs of different design parameters, including variable selection, geographic unit, dimensionality reduction, weighting, and aggregation methods. From this methodological review, we create the first nationwide, census tract-level index of cumulative burden that includes energy-relevant indicators alongside climate, social, environmental, and economic indicators, and is flexible to the inclusion of additional data sources. We provide a summary of the sources of inputs used to develop a definition for "disadvantaged communities" that can be used to prioritize energy investments. We discuss use-cases for this index including the implementation of the Justice40 Initiative, which calls for 40% of certain federal clean energy benefits to flow to disadvantaged communities in the United States. We use our results to examine historic allocations of federal energy investments and show that communities that we identify as disadvantaged received about 37% fewer funds per capita than non-disadvantaged communities.

cumulative burden↗

Utilization of an Advanced Sensor network to determine fuel heating value and Real-Time net unit heat rate during transient operation

Coal-fired utility boilers are being increasingly used as variable electricity generation to resolve the imbalance in the energy market from the expansion of intermittent renewable energy. The frequent transient operation required to meet residual energy demand has created a challenge for coal-fired units to operate efficiently. This work utilizes an advanced sensor network (ASN) to calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) of a coal-fired boiler in real time through combustion calculations and statistical correlations to provide the tools for optimizing dynamic operation. Real-time heating values that were necessary to determine fuel input energy to calculate accurate NUHR were found using both fundamental and data-driven methods. Real-time NUHR shows distinct shifts that reflect changes in process conditions that will improve the ability to optimize transient operation. Data-driven heating value correlations had 24% lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the fundamental combustion calculation approach when compared to daily retrospective proximate analysis. Furthermore, the data-driven method RMSE improved by 7% with the inclusion of ASN data. Future work is to validate by comparing unit performance with and without the inclusion of NUHR as a control parameter for the dynamic neural network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Prevalence of Neuropathic Pain in Radiotherapy Oncology Units

Purpose: Neuropathic pain (NP) in cancer patients severely impacts quality of life. Radiotherapy (RT) may cause NP, and at the same time, cancer patients visit RT units for pain relief. NP prevalence at these sites and current analgesic treatment should be assessed to improve management. Methods and Materials: This epidemiological, prospective, multicenter study was undertaken to assess NP prevalence, according to Douleur Neuropathique 4 questions questtionaire (DN4) test results, and analgesic management in cancer pain patients visiting RT oncologic units. Secondary analyses assessed NP etiology and pain intensity (using the Brief Pain Inventory-Short Form) and impact (using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), Medical Outcomes Study [MOS] for Sleep, and the Health Survey Short Form-12). Results: A total of 1,098 patients with any kind of pain were registered. NP prevalence was 31.1% (95% confidence interval, 28.4%--33.9%); 291 NP patients (mean age, 62.2 {+-}12.5 years and 57.7% men) were eligible for study; 49% of patients were overweight. The most frequent tumors were those of breast and lung, and stage IIIB was the most common cancer stage. The tumors caused 75% of NP cases. Anxiety, sleepiness, and depression were common. At 8 weeks, pain intensity and interference with daily activities decreased significantly for 50.8% of responders. Depression and anxiety (p < 0.0001) scores on the Physical Component Summary and Mental Component Summary measures (p < 0.0001) and all MOS-Sleep subscales, except for snoring, improved significantly. The percentage of satisfied patients increased from 13.8% to 87.4% (p < 0.0001) with the current analgesic treatment, which meant a 1.2- and 6-fold increase (p < 0.0001) in narcotic analgesics and anticonvulsants, respectively, compared to previous treatment. Conclusions: NP is highly prevalent at RT oncology units, with sleepiness, anxiety, and depression as frequent comorbidities. There is a need to improve management of NP with increased use of more specific NP-targeting drugs.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Assessment of National Practice for Palliative Radiation Therapy for Bone Metastases Suggests Marked Underutilization of Single-Fraction Regimens in the United States

Purpose: To characterize temporal trends in the application of various bone metastasis fractionations within the United States during the past decade, using the National Cancer Data Base; the primary aim was to determine whether clinical practice in the United States has changed over time to reflect the published randomized evidence and the growing movement for value-based treatment decisions. Patients and Methods: The National Cancer Data Base was used to identify patients treated to osseous metastases from breast, prostate, and lung cancer. Utilization of single-fraction versus multiple-fraction radiation therapy was compared according to demographic, disease-related, and health care system details. Results: We included 24,992 patients treated during the period 2005-2011 for bone metastases. Among patients treated to non-spinal/vertebral sites (n=9011), 4.7% received 8 Gy in 1 fraction, whereas 95.3% received multiple-fraction treatment. Over time the proportion of patients receiving a single fraction of 8 Gy increased (from 3.4% in 2005 to 7.5% in 2011). Numerous independent predictors of single-fraction treatment were identified, including older age, farther travel distance for treatment, academic treatment facility, and non-private health insurance (P<.05). Conclusions: Single-fraction palliative radiation therapy regimens are significantly underutilized in current practice in the United States. Further efforts are needed to address this issue, such that evidence-based and cost-conscious care becomes more commonplace.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Li{sub 2}Sr{sub 4}B{sub 12}O{sub 23}: A new alkali and alkaline-earth metal mixed borate with [B{sub 10}O{sub 18}]{sup 6-} network and isolated [B{sub 2}O{sub 5}]{sup 4-} unit

A novel ternary lithium strontium borate Li{sub 2}Sr{sub 4}B{sub 12}O{sub 23} crystal with size up to 20 mm Multiplication-Sign 10 mm Multiplication-Sign 4 mm has been grown via the top-seeded solution growth method below 730 Degree-Sign C. Single-crystal XRD analyses showed that Li{sub 2}Sr{sub 4}B{sub 12}O{sub 23} crystallizes in the monoclinic space group P2{sub 1}/c with a=6.4664(4) A, b=8.4878(4) A, c=15.3337(8) A, {beta}=102.02(3) Degree-Sign , Z=2. The crystal structure is composed of [B{sub 10}O{sub 18}]{sup 6-} network and isolated [B{sub 2}O{sub 5}]{sup 4-} unit. The IR spectrum further confirmed the presence of both BO{sub 3} and BO{sub 4} groups. TG-DSC and Transmission spectrum were reported. Band structures and density of states were calculated. - Graphical abstract: A new phase, Li{sub 2}Sr{sub 4}B{sub 12}O{sub 23}, has been discovered in the ternary M{sub 2}O-M Prime O-B{sub 2}O{sub 3} (M=alkali-metal, M Prime =alkalineearth metal) system. The crystal structure consists of [B{sub 10}O{sub 18}]{sup 6-} network and isolated [B{sub 2}O{sub 5}]{sup 4-} unit. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Li{sub 2}Sr{sub 4}B{sub 12}O{sub 23} is a a novel borate discovered in the M{sub 2}O-M Prime O-B{sub 2}O{sub 3} (M=alkali-metal, M Prime =alkaline-earth metal) system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Li{sub 2}Sr{sub 4}B{sub 12}O{sub 23} crystal structure has a three-dimensional crystal structure with [B{sub 10}O{sub 18}]{sup 6-} network and isolated [B{sub 2}O{sub 5}]{sup 4-} unit. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sr{sub 1} and Sr{sub 2} are located in two different channels constructed by {sup 3}{sub {infinity}}[B{sub 10}O{sub 18}] network.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Synthesis, crystal and electronic structures and magnetic properties of Li{sub 2}SnMo{sub 3}O{sub 8}: A novel reduced molybdenum oxide containing Mo{sub 3}O{sub 13} cluster units

Powder samples and single crystals of the quaternary oxide Li{sub 2}SnMo{sub 3}O{sub 8} were obtained by solid state reaction. The structure was determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. Li{sub 2}SnMo{sub 3}O{sub 8} crystallizes in the hexagonal space group P6{sub 3}mc with unit-cell parameters a=5.7720 (2) Å, c=10.3941 (3) Å and Z=2. Full-matrix least-squares refinement on F{sup 2} using 930 independent reflections for 31 refinable parameters results in R{sub 1}=0.0354 and wR{sub 2}=0.0643. The crystal structure consists of distorted hexagonal-close-packed oxygen layers with stacking sequence abac along [0 0 1] and that are held together by alternating lithium-tin and molybdenum layers. The Li{sup +} and Sn{sup 4+} ions occupy, respectively, tetrahedral and octahedral sites in the ratio 2:1. The Mo atoms occupy octahedral sites and form strongly bonded triangular clusters involving three MoO{sub 6} octahedra that are each shared along two edges, constituting a Mo{sub 3}O{sub 13} unit. Magnetic susceptibility measurements are in agreement with a spin-pairing of the eight d electrons per Mo{sub 3} cluster. The electronic structure of Li{sub 2}SnMo{sub 3}O{sub 8} is analyzed using periodic density functional calculations. - Graphical abstract: We present here the synthesis, the crystal and electronic structures, and the magnetic properties of the new quaternary compound containing Mo{sub 3}O{sub 13} units, Li{sub 2}SnMo{sub 3}O{sub 8}. - Highlights: • The new quaternary reduced molybdenum oxide containing Mo{sub 3} clusters, Li{sub 2}SnMo{sub 3}O{sub 8}, was synthesized by solid state reaction. • Eight electrons per Mo{sub 3} cluster. • Single-crystal X-ray study. • Magnetic susceptibility measurements. • Periodic density functional calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

N-donor co-ligands driven two new Co(II)- coordination polymers with bi- and trinuclear units: Crystal structures, and magnetic properties

Two new Co(II) coordination polymers(CPs), namely [Co{sub 2}(bpe){sub 2}(Hbppc)]{sub n} (1) and [Co{sub 3}(μ{sub 3}-OH)(bppc)(bpm)(H{sub 2}O)]·3H{sub 2}O (2) (H{sub 5}bppc=biphenyl-2,4,6,3′,5′-pentacarboxylic acid, bpe=1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethene, bpm=bis(4-pyridyl)amine), have been obtained and characterized by elemental analysis, single-crystal X-ray diffraction, powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), IR spectra and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). 1 shows a binodal (4,6)-connected fsc net with a (4{sup 4}·6{sup 10}·8)(4{sup 4}·6{sup 2}) topology, while 2 shows a binodal (5,7)-connected 3D network based on trinuclear [Co{sub 3}(μ{sub 3}-OH)]{sup 5+} units with unusual (3.4{sup 6}.5{sup 2}.6)(3{sup 2}.4{sup 6}.5{sup 7}.6{sup 5}.7) topology. Variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements reveals that complex 1 shows ferromagnetic interactions between the adjacent Co(II) ions, whereas 2 is a antiferromagnetic system. - Graphical abstract: Two new Co(II) coordination polymers with bi- and trinuclear units have been obtained. 1 shows a binodal (4,6)-connected fsc net with a (4{sup 4}·6{sup 10}·8)(4{sup 4}·6{sup 2}) topology and antiferromagnetic interactions between the adjacent Co(II) ions, while 2 is a binodal (5,7)-connected 3D network with unusual (3.4{sup 6}.5{sup 2}.6)(3{sup 2}.4{sup 6}.5{sup 7}.6{sup 5}.7) topology and a ferromagnetic system. - Highlights: • Two Co(II) coordination polymers with different multimetallic clusters as building units. • A (4,6)-connected fsc net and a (5,7)-connected 3D network. • A antiferromagnetic coupling for 1 and A ferromagnetic coupling for 2.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Syntheses, structures, and luminescence of a series of novel trimetallic coordination polymers constructed by Cu-I clusters and alkaline-carboxyl- alkaline-earth building units

Seven novel trimetallic coordination polymers, namely, [Li{sub 2}SrCu{sub 2}I{sub 2}(IN){sub 4}(DMF){sub 3}]{sub n}·nDMF (1), [LiSr{sub 2}Cu{sub 2}I{sub 2}(IN){sub 5}(DMF){sub 2}]{sub n} (2), [NaSr{sub 2}Cu{sub 2}I{sub 2}(IN){sub 4}(NO{sub 3})(DMF){sub 4}]{sub n}·nDMF·0.5nH{sub 2}O (3), [NaSr{sub 2}Cu{sub 2}I{sub 2}(IN){sub 5}(DMF){sub 4}]{sub n}·3nDMF·3nH{sub 2}O (4), [Li{sub 2}BaCu{sub 2}I{sub 2}(IN){sub 4}(DMF){sub 3}]{sub n}·nDMF (5), [Li{sub 2}Ba{sub 2}Cu{sub 2}I{sub 2}(IN){sub 4}(OAc){sub 2}(DMF){sub 3}]{sub n}·nDMF·0.5nH{sub 2}O (6), [Li{sub 2}Ba{sub 2}Cu{sub 2}I(IN){sub 7}(H{sub 2}O){sub 1.5}]{sub n}·0.5nH{sub 2}O (7) (IN = isonicotinic anion, DMF = N, N-dimethylformamide) have been synthesized via solvothermal method. All of the coordination polymers were characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, FT-IR spectroscopy, elemental analysis and thermogravimetric analysis. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction determinations revealed that compounds 1–7 were three dimensional frameworks. Compounds 1–6 were assembled by Cu{sub 2}I{sub 2} units and different alkaline-carboxyl- alkaline-earth rod building units with different topologies; while, compound 7 was constructed by Cu{sub 2}I units and alkaline-carboxyl- alkaline-earth honeycomb layers. The photoluminscent investigations revealed that the compounds 1, 3, 5 and 6 emitted strong yellow, while compounds 2, 4 and 7 emitted strong orange light.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Continuous electrocoagulation-membrane distillation unit for treating hydraulic fracturing produced water

Hydraulic fracturing oil and gas produced water is frequently highly impaired. While it is often deep well injected, there is great interest in treating this water for beneficial uses. Given the complexity of these produced waters, multiple unit operations are necessary. Electrocoagulation has been considered as a promising pretreatment technology. Here electrocoagulation is considered as a pretreatment prior to membrane distillation. The focus of this work is on understanding the electrocoagulation process in order to design an integrated unit operation. Electrocoagulation is used to remove organic compounds that will foul the membrane leading to membrane failure during membrane distillation. Using aluminum or iron electrodes, half-cell reactions in the electrocoagulation cell and electrode potentials have been calculated. Electrocoagulation was conducted using a continuous electrocoagulation reactor with actual produced water using aluminum, iron or mixed aluminum and iron electrodes. Here, the results obtained here indicate that electrocoagulation can obtain good removal efficiency of total organic carbon (TOC) by using different reaction conditions. Removal of organic compounds is essential to minimize fouling during membrane distillation. Further the performance of the electrocoagulation process depends strongly on the quality of the feed water. Insoluble species were more effectively coagulated than dissolved organic species. Continuous electrocoagulation shows great potential as a scalable unit operation for pretreating hydraulic fracturing produced water.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Neutron-proton pair transfer reactions and corresponding Weisskopf-type units

We introduce the concept of neutron-proton two-particle units (np-Weisskopf units) to be used in the analysis of the ( 3 He,p) and (p, 3 He) reactions on nuclei along the N=Z line. These are presented for the conditions relevant to the (n,j,ℓ) orbits expected from 16 O to 100 Sn. As is the case of the Weisskopf units for electromagnetic transitions, the np-WU's will provide a simple, yet robust, measure of isoscalar and isovector np pairing collective effects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

United States plastics: Large flows, short lifetimes, and negligible recycling

Given increasing concerns for the marine environment and human health, as well as trade restrictions from Asian countries, plastics have become a great challenge for the United States. This study addresses the seven commonly used plastics: low-density polyethylene/linear low-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polypropylene, polystyrene, polyvinyl chloride, and other plastics. Material flows of the seven polymers were tracked from production into fabrication, manufacturing, flow into use, waste management, and recycling in the United States in 2015. Low- and high-density polyethylene and polypropylene were found to be the largest in both production and product manufacture. More than 88% of the plastics went into three end-use sectors: Packaging, Consumer and Institutional Products, and Building and Construction. In-use lifetimes across the plastics are generally short. Virgin plastics were mainly exported, while intermediate plastic products were largely imported. The actual end-of-life recycling rate of the plastics as a group was no more than 6.2%, with PET and the polyethylene family the most recycled. Here, the high yearly plastic throughput and low recycling rate pose a serious challenge to the sustainability goals of the United States and is in stark contrast to the vision of a circular economy of plastics.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Greenhouse gas emission reduction and cost from the United States biofuels mandate

The United States biofuel mandate might be the largest operating program to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Our paper uses regulatory information about abatement and compliance cost estimates to measure the greenhouse gas abatement cost curve of the mandate. Historical compliance costs per unit of biofuel appear readily available, yet findings here show that using these data along with observed biofuel quantities biases biofuel mandate abatement cost estimates upward. Unbiased estimation requires that related biofuel mandate costs and emissions are estimated along with associated market effects, including on fuel use, using an economic model. Moreover, this approach relates greenhouse gas abatement to the implications for crop prices and land use, taking account of interactions within the crop sector. Results show that the United States biofuel mandate causes up to 20 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent abatement for compliance costs that are equivalent to carbon prices ranging up to $20 per ton, with a large part coming from reductions in petroleum product use as the mandate encourages substitution to biofuels. Abatement costs are reduced if ethanol is made at new facilities with fewer emissions or if petroleum output expansion causes greater emissions than the historical average. Results also indicate that GHG abatement via the mandate is initially costly due to the nature of biofuel demand, there can be a trade-off between corn price increase and GHG reduction, and the increase in total area planted to crops in the U.S. is less important than the reallocation of land among crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Supply chain optimization of sustainable aviation fuel from carinata in the Southeastern United States

We report carinata is a purpose-grown oilseed feedstock for renewable fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that can replace conventional aviation fuel (CAF). Given carinata is a new crop in the Southeastern United States, it is crucial to analyze its sustainability from a supply chain perspective. This study developed a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model and simulated it for 20 years, starting from a farm (county-level data) and ending at the airport. About 2.06 million ha in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia combined were found suitable for carinata production. Given the three-year rotation period, about 0.69 million hectares can be cultivated annually, approximately 65% of which was in Georgia. About 2.4% of the combined SAF annual demand of four major airports (about 210 thousand t) in the study area is satisfied at that level of carinata cultivation. However, all available SAF was supplied to the Atlanta airport as this decision minimizes the supply chain cost. A total of 1343 storage units, one oil extraction mill, and one biorefinery were needed to meet the overall demand. We found that SW Georgia is the top supplier of carinata seeds. The unit cost of production and carbon intensity were estimated to be $\$$0.89 L -1 (or $\$$26.79 GJ -1 ) and 0.91 kg CO 2 e L -1 (or 27.28 kg CO 2 e GJ -1 ), respectively. This carbon intensity of carinata-based SAF was 67.8% lower than that of CAF. With variations included in SAF demand, yield, and soil carbon sequestration, carbon savings remained between 66.5% and 67.8%. Given the GHG advantage of SAF over CAF, there is justification for subsidies required to make SAF competitive.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Climate and atmospheric deposition drive the inter-annual variability and long-term trend of dissolved organic carbon flux in the conterminous United States

The lateral flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to inland waters and ultimately to the ocean represents a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. To estimate the DOC flux, we developed an empirical terrestrial-aquatic DOC fluxes model (TAF-DOC). TAF-DOC incorporates various environmental factors (e.g., meteorology, sulfur, and nitrogen deposition) that to-date have not been comprehensively considered or well-represented in existing modeling frameworks. TAF-DOC was applied to estimate spatial-temporal patterns of DOC flux and potential fates across the conterminous United States during the 1985 to 2018 time period. Our results suggest that TAF-DOC successfully characterized spatial-temporal of DOC flux. As expected, the interannual pattern of DOC flux was strongly regulated by precipitation, but the long-term trend was significantly influenced by the rate of atmospheric wet sulfur deposition. From 1985 to 2018, TAF-DOC estimated DOC loading from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems in the conterminous United States to be 33.5 ± 2.2 TgC per year, which was roughly 0.39–0.49% of total soil organic carbon stock estimates. The dominant fate of terrestrially-derived DOC was delivery to the coastal ocean in riverine export (41%), with another 21% buried in sediment and the remaining 12.8 ± 0.4 TgC per year (38%) returned to the atmosphere through outgassing from inland waters. Finally, assuming the quantities of DOC sediment burial and export to the ocean as an annual sink of terrestrially-derived carbon, budget inventories and models that do not account for DOC flux in the conterminous United States will underestimate the net annual carbon sink by as much as 5.5–6.4%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detecting inhomogeneities in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over the central United States

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), which spans the 138 year period from 1871 to 2008, was intended for a variety of climate applications, including long–term trend assessment. Because over land 20CR only assimilates surface pressure observations and their count increases by an order of magnitude over the course of the record, a key question is whether the 20CR is homogenous and hence suitable for detecting climate–related changes. We use three statistical methods (Pettitt and Bai–Perron tests and segmented regression) to detect abrupt shifts in multiple hydrometeorological variable mean and uncertainty fields over the central United States. For surface air temperature and precipitation, we use the Climate Research Unit (CRU) time series data set for comparison. We find that for warm–season months, there is a consensus change point among all variables between 1940 and 1950, which is not substantiated by the CRU record. While we cannot say with certainty that these shifts in the 20CR analysis fields are artificial, our statistical analyses, coupled with a visual inspection of the underlying assimilated observational count time series, strongly point to this conclusion. Furthermore, our recommendation is therefore for users to restrict climate trend applications over the central United States to the second half century of the 20CR record, after observational density has stabilized.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate-limited endemicity will more than double, the number of affected states will increase from 12 to 17, and the number of Valley fever cases will increase by 50%. The Valley fever endemic region will expand north into dry western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Precipitation will limit the disease from spreading into states farther east and along the central and northern Pacific coast. This is the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States. Our predictive model of Valley fever endemicity may provide guidance to public health officials to establish disease surveillance programs and design mitigation efforts to limit the impacts of this disease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗