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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Market expectations of a warming climate

In this paper, we compare prices of financial derivatives whose payouts are based on future weather outcomes to CMIP5 climate model predictions as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US from 2001 through 2020. Derivative prices respond both to short-term weather forecasts for the next two weeks and longer-term warming trends. We show that the long-term trends in derivative prices are comparable to station-level data and climate model output. The one exception is February in the northeastern US, where financial markets price in a polar vortex-induced cooling effect, a recent scientific finding that was not present in the older CMIP5 climate output. When looking at the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in trends, futures prices are more aligned with climate model output than observed weather station trends, suggesting that market participants closely align their expectations with scientific projections rather than recent observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RELAP5-3D validation studies based on the High Temperature Test facility

In the spring and summer of 2019, experiments were conducted at the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) that form the basis of an upcoming high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) thermal hydraulics (T/H) benchmark. HTTF is an integral effects test facility for HTGR T/H modeling validation. This paper presents RELAP5-3D models of two of those experiments: PG-27, a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC); and PG-29, a depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC). These models used the RELAP5-3D model of HTTF originally developed by Paul Bayless as a starting point. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification code, RAVEN was used to perform calibration studies for the steady-state portion of PG-27. Here we developed four PG-27 calibrations based on steady-state conditions. These calibrations all used an effective thermal conductivity equal to 36 % of the measured thermal conductivity, but they differed with respect to the frictional pressure drops and radial conduction models. These models all captured the trends in steady-state temperature distributions and transient temperature behavior well. All four calibrations show room for improvement in predicting the transient temperature rise. The smallest error in temperature rise during the transient was a 21 % underprediction, and the largest was a 48 % underprediction. The errors in transient temperature rise are largely a result of a mismatch in power density between the RELAP5-3D model and the experiment due to the location of active heater rods along the boundary between heat structures in the model. The best of these calibrations was applied to PG-29 to model the DCC. Once again, temperatures during the transient were underpredicted but trends in temperature were captured. The RELAP5-3D model captured trends in the data but could not reproduce measured temperatures exactly. This result is not attributed to deficiencies in the experimental data or to RELAP5–3D itself. Rather, this result likely arises due to the some of the assumptions and decisions made when the RELAP5-3D model was first developed, prior to the execution of HTTF experiments. An agreement in prediction of temperature trends but challenges reproducing HTTF temperatures within measurement uncertainty is consistent with previous analyses of HTTF in the literature. Future RELAP5-3D validation activities centered around HTTF may be able to provide greater insight into the code’s capabilities for HTGR modeling with a more finely nodalized model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electromagnetic moments of 215,217 Bi: Probing shell evolution beyond N = 126

The nuclear properties of bismuth isotopes (Z = 83) , with just one valence proton above the closed spherical shell at (Z = 82) , are expected to be governed by a single unpaired proton. However, already in semimagic 209 Bi (Z = 83, N = 126) , , the magnetic moment (μ) strongly deviates from the single-particle Schmidt value. A near linear decrease in μ with the increase of N after the N = 126 magic number was observed up to N = 130 . In order to test whether this trend is kept at N > 130 and to reveal the underlying mechanisms, an investigation of 215,217 Bi (N = 132, 134) has been undertaken. The magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole moments of the I π = 9/2 - nuclear ground states in these isotopes have been measured for the first time using the in-source resonance-ionization spectroscopy technique at ISOLDE (CERN). It has been shown that the linearly decreasing trend of μ( 209,211,213 Bi g ) is broken in 215,217 Bi with a nearly constant value of μ observed. Experimental data have been compared to calculations in the framework of the configuration-interaction shell model with the monopole-based universal V MU +LS interaction. The peculiarities in the behavior of μ(Bi, 9/2 - ) with increasing neutron number are explained as being due to the shell evolution, change of the neutron orbitals occupancies and strong configuration mixing beyond N = 130 . Also, the difference in the μ trends for bismuth (Z = 83) and astatine (Z = 85) isotopes with N > 126 are reproduced by the shell-model calculations. It is shown that monopole interaction plays noticeable role in the description of the peculiarities of the μ behaviour. Additionally, the extension of the application of the V MU interaction to the μ isotopic trends for heavy nuclei is important for further study of the capabilities of this promising version of the shell-model calculations.

Dipole magnetic moments↗
DOE OSTI2021

Covalency of Trivalent Actinide Ions with Different Donor Ligands: Do Density Functional and Multiconfigurational Wavefunction Calculations Corroborate the Observed “Breaks”?

A comprehensive ab initio study of periodic actinide–ligand bonding trends for trivalent actinides is performed. Relativistic density functional theory (DFT) and complete active-space (CAS) self-consistent field wavefunction calculations are used to dissect the chemical bonding in the [AnCl 6 ] 3– , [An(CN) 6 ] 3– , [An(NCS) 6 ] 3– , [An(S 2 PMe 2 ) 3 ], [An(DPA) 3 ] 3– , and [An(HOPO)] – series of actinide (An = U–Es) complexes. Except for some differences for the early actinide complexes with DPA, bond orders and excess 5f-shell populations from donation bonding show qualitatively similar trends in 5f n active-space CAS vs DFT calculations. The influence of spin–orbit coupling on donation bonding is small for the tested systems. Along the actinide series, chemically soft vs chemically harder ligands exhibit clear differences in bonding trends. There are pronounced changes in the 5f populations when moving from Pu to Am or Cm, which correlate with previously noted “breaks” in chemical trends. As a result, bonding involving 5f becomes very weak beyond Cm/Bk. We propose that Cm(III) is a borderline case among the trivalent actinides that can be meaningfully considered to be involved in ground-state 5f covalent bonding.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reactive Molecular Dynamics Simulations and Quantum Chemistry Calculations To Investigate Soot-Relevant Reaction Pathways for Hexylamine Isomers

Sooting tendencies of a series of nitrogen-containing hydrocarbons (NHCs) have been recently characterized experimentally using the yield sooting index (YSI) methodology. This work aims to identify soot-relevant reaction pathways for three selected C6H15N amines, namely, dipropylamine (DPA), diisopropylamine (DIPA), and 3,3-dimethylbutylamine (DMBA) using ReaxFF molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and quantum mechanical (QM) calculations and to interpret the experimentally observed trends. ReaxFF MD simulations are performed to determine the important intermediate species and radicals involved in the fuel decomposition and soot formation processes. QM calculations are employed to extensively search for chemical reactions involving these species and radicals based on the ReaxFF MD results and also to quantitatively characterize the potential energy surfaces. Specifically, ReaxFF simulations are carried out in the NVT ensemble at 1400, 1600, and 1800 K, where soot has been identified to form in the YSI experiment. These simulations account for the interactions among test fuel molecules and pre-existing radicals and intermediate species generated from rich methane combustion, using a recently proposed simulation framework. ReaxFF simulations predict that the reactivity of the amines decrease in the order DIPA > DPA > DMBA, independent of temperature. Both QM calculations and ReaxFF simulations predict that C2H4, C3H6, and C4H8 are the main nonaromatic soot precursors formed during the decomposition of DPA, DIPA, and DMBA, respectively, and the associated reaction pathways are identified for each amine. Both theoretical methods predict that sooting tendency increases in the order DPA, DIPA, and DMBA, consistent with the experimentally measured trend in YSI. This work demonstrates that sooting tendencies and soot-relevant reaction pathways of fuels with unknown chemical kinetics can be identified efficiently through combined ReaxFF and QM simulations. Overall, predictions from ReaxFF simulations and QM calculations are consistent, in terms of fuel reactivity, major intermediates, and major nonaromatic soot precursors.

fuel decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Pb(II) Adsorption on Mineral Surfaces: Bridging Density Functional Theory and Experiment with Thermodynamic Insights

Despite decades of work on aqueous lead (Pb) adsorption on a-Fe2O3 (hematite) and a-Al2O3 (alumina), gaps between measurements and modeling obscure molecular-level understanding. Achieving well-matched geometries between theory and experimental for mineral-water interfaces is a hurdle, as surface functional group type and distribution must be accounted for in determining mechanisms. Additionally, computational methods that can describe the substrate are often not appropriate to capture aqueous effects. Progress requires focusing on well-studied and relevant systems, such as key facets (001),(012), and (110) of hematite and alumina, and ubiquitous contaminants such as aqueous Pb. In the past, bulk-parametrized bond-valence principles were used to rationalize Pb(II) adsorption trends. These approaches can break down at surfaces, where flexible bonding environments and adsorption-induced surface relaxations play a critical role. Here, we adapt and apply a density functional theory (DFT) and thermodynamics framework, integrating DFT-calculated energies with experimental data and electrochemical principles, to predict Pb(II) adsorption. Our model results capture trends across the full set of surfaces and predict that inner-sphere Pb(II) sorption on (001) alumina varies from unfavorable to weakly favorable across a range of pH conditions. This aligns with experiment insights that Pb(II) interacts at that surface through outer-sphere interactions. Extending to Fe(II) adsorption, we demonstrate a coverage-dependent site preference, potentially explaining disorder in overlayers grown by the oxidative adsorption of Fe(II) on hematite (001).

lead contamination↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Mechanism of Increasing Summer Water Vapor Over the Tibetan Plateau

Rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been associated with a wetting trend in atmospheric water vapor content, which is critical for recharging the Asian water tower. However, the mechanism associated with the wetting phenomenon remains unclear. Long-term changes in moisture balance and precipitation recycling processes are investigated using the ERA5 reanalysis from 1979 to 2019. The wetting trend over TP is mainly due to the summer water vapor trend with signi?cantly increases over the western TP. Based on the moisture balance analysis, it is found that precipitation, evaporation, and the convergence of moisture are all increasing over the western TP but decreasing over the eastern TP. Based on the dynamical precipitation recycling model, the results suggest that both internal and external cycles contributes to the wetting over TP, with 63.87% and 36.13% contributions respectively. Further analysis found that the atmospheric heating source is also increasing over the western TP, which could shift the moisture transportation from east to west at the southern boundary of TP. The increasing moisture convergence could enhance precipitation, and the enhanced latent heating in the mid-atmosphere can further induced moisture convergence, which forms a positive feedback. However, an opposite situation occurred over the eastern TP. The internal and external cycle of the recycling process can stimulate (suppress) each other through precipitation over the western (eastern) TP. This mechanism linked the changes in the precipitation recycling and atmospheric circulation, and induced the wetting trend over TP in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Natural Variability Has Concealed Increases in Western US Flood Hazard Since the 1970s

Flood hazard across the western United States (US) has generally shown decreasing trends in recent decades. This region's extreme streamflow is highly influenced by natural variability, which could either mask or amplify anthropogenic streamflow trends. Here, in this study, we utilize a technique known as dynamical adjustment to assess historical (1970–2020) annual maximum 1-day streamflow (Qx1d) from unregulated basins across the western US with and without the impact of natural variability. After removing natural variability, the fraction of basins with a positive (>5%) trend in Qx1d shifts from 25% to 53%. Basins with increasing (decreasing) Qx1d trends after dynamical adjustment exhibit weak (strong) drying, and furthermore are associated with intensifying precipitation extremes and/or large decreases in snowpack. Increasing flood hazard will likely emerge for such basins as the current phase of natural decadal variability shifts, and anthropogenic signals continue to intensify.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models

While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China

Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerating increase in extreme precipitation occurred around 2010, with the trend in accumulated extreme rainfall amount (R95pTOT) increasing from 2.88 mm per decade during 2000–2010 to 22.88 mm per decade during 2010–2023. The sudden acceleration of the increasing extreme precipitation is largely attributed to the reverse in aerosol trends associated with China’s clean air actions, which affects extreme precipitation through perturbing cloud microphysics and atmospheric dynamics, accounting for half of the change in R95pTOT trends. Future aerosol reduction to achieve carbon neutrality is shown to continue to intensify the extreme precipitation, which overweighs the effect induced by GHGs, highlighting the importance of aerosol changes in modulating future climate and weather extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aerosol effective radiative forcing increases Earth’s energy imbalance in recent decades

Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, has risen markedly over the last two decades. Greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol forcing, and cloud feedback all contribute to this increase. However, the role of aerosol forcing, particularly effective radiative forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF ACI ), remains highly uncertain and closely intertwined with cloud feedback. Here, we estimate shortwave ERF ACI using satellite observations and show its importance as a contributor to the EEI increase between 2003 and 2023. ERF ACI exhibits a significant increasing trend of 0.33 Wm −2 /decade averaged over oceans between 60°S and 60°N. The increasing trend of ERF ACI stems from a global decline in cloud droplet number concentration driven by decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is of similar magnitude as the combined instantaneous forcing trend from greenhouse gases and aerosol-radiation interactions. Our results may reduce the gap between the simulated and observed shortwave contribution to EEI trends while implying a weak shortwave cloud feedback. They also suggest a stronger aerosol forcing than the multi-model mean.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unveiling four decades of intensifying precipitation from tropical cyclones using satellite measurements

Increases in precipitation rates and volumes from tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by anthropogenic warming are predicted by climate modeling studies and have been identified in several high intensity storms occurring over the last half decade. However, it has been difficult to detect historical trends in TC precipitation at time scales long enough to overcome natural climate variability because of limitations in existing precipitation observations. We introduce an experimental global high-resolution climate data record of precipitation produced using infrared satellite imagery and corrected at the monthly scale by a gauge-derived product that shows generally good performance during two hurricane case studies but estimates higher mean precipitation rates in the tropics than the evaluation datasets. General increases in mean and extreme rainfall rates during the study period of 1980–2019 are identified, culminating in a 12–18%/40-year increase in global rainfall rates. Overall, all basins have experienced intensification in precipitation rates. Increases in rainfall rates have boosted the mean precipitation volume of global TCs by 7–15% over 40 years, with the starkest rises seen in the North Atlantic, South Indian, and South Pacific basins (maximum 59–64% over 40 years). In terms of inland rainfall totals, year-by-year trends are generally positive due to increasing TC frequency, slower decay over land, and more intense rainfall, with an alarming increase of 81–85% seen from the strongest global TCs. As the global trend in precipitation rates follows expectations from warming sea surface temperatures (11.1%/°C), we hypothesize that the observed trends could be a result of anthropogenic warming creating greater concentrations of water vapor in the atmosphere, though retrospective studies of TC dynamics over the period are needed to confirm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed increase in the peak rain rates of monsoon depressions

Most extreme precipitation in the densely populated region of central India is produced by atmospheric vortices called monsoon lows and monsoon depressions. Here we use satellite and gauge-based precipitation estimates with atmospheric reanalyses to assess 40-year trends in the rain rates of these storms, which have remained unknown. We show that rain rates increased in the rainiest quadrant of monsoon depressions, southwest of the vortex center; precipitation decreased in eastern quadrants, yielding no clear trend in precipitation averaged over the entire storm diameter. In an atmospheric reanalysis, ascent increased in the region of amplifying precipitation, but we could not detect trends in the intensity of rotational winds around the storm center. These storm changes occurred in a background environment where humidity increased rapidly over land while warming was more muted. Monsoon lows, which we show produce less precipitation than depressions, exhibit weaker trends that are less statistically robust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

The loss of phosphorous (P) from the land to aquatic systems has polluted waters and threatened food production worldwide. Systematic trend analysis of P, a nonrenewable resource, has been challenging, primarily due to sparse and inconsistent historical data. Here, we leveraged intensive hydrometeorological data and the recent renaissance of deep learning approaches to fill data gaps and reconstruct temporal trends. We trained a multitask long short-term memory model for total P (TP) using data from 430 rivers across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Trend analysis of reconstructed daily records (1980–2019) shows widespread decline in concentrations, with declining, increasing, and insignificantly changing trends in 60%, 28%, and 12% of the rivers, respectively. Concentrations in urban rivers have declined the most despite rising urban population in the past decades; concentrations in agricultural rivers however have mostly increased, suggesting not-as-effective controls of nonpoint sources in agriculture lands compared to point sources in cities. TP loss, calculated as fluxes by multiplying concentration and discharge, however exhibited an overall increasing rate of 6.5% per decade at the CONUS scale over the past 40 y, largely due to increasing river discharge. Results highlight the challenge of reducing TP loss that is complicated by changing river discharge in a warming climate.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forward modeling fluctuations in the DESI LRGs target sample using image simulations

We use the forward modeling pipeline, Obiwan, to study the imaging systematics of the Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) targeted by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Imaging systematics refers to the false fluctuation of galaxy densities due to varying observing conditions and astrophysical foregrounds corresponding to the imaging surveys from which DESI LRG target galaxies are selected. We update the Obiwan pipeline, which we previously developed to simulate the optical images used to target DESI data, to further simulate WISE images in the infrared. This addition allows simulating the DESI LRGs sample, which utilizes WISE data in the target selection. Deep DESI imaging data combined with a method to account for biases in their shapes is used to define a truth sample of potential LRG targets. We inject these data evenly throughout the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey footprint at declinations between -30 and 32.375 degrees. We simulate a total of 15 million galaxies to obtain a simulated LRG sample (Obiwan LRGs) that predicts the variations in target density due to imaging properties. We find that the simulations predict the trends with depth observed in the data, including how they depend on the intrinsic brightness of the galaxies. We observe that faint LRGs are the main contributing source of the imaging systematics trend induced by depth. We also find significant trends in the data against Galactic extinction that are not predicted by Obiwan. These trends depend strongly on the particular map of Galactic extinction chosen to test against, implying systematic contamination in the Galactic extinction maps is a likely root cause (e.g., Cosmic-Infrared Background, dust temperature correction). We additionally observe a morphological change of the DESI LRGs population evidenced by a correlation between OII emission line average intensity and the size of the z-band PSF. This effect most likely results from uncertainties in background subtraction. The detailed findings we present should be used to guide any observational systematics mitigation treatment for the clustering of the DESI LRGs sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying heat extremes in China attributed to rising greenhouse gases and declining aerosols since the 2010s

Rising temperatures have increased the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme temperature events over China in recent decades. The upward trends in heat extremes in China in the warm season (May–September) and their relationships with changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model results. Significant increasing trends in China are observed in daily maximum temperatures (TXx), heatwave frequency, and heatwave mean duration during 2011–2023, with increasing rates of 0.70 °C/decade, 3.77 d/decade and 0.31 d/event/decade, respectively. This study shows that 43 ± 3% of the TXx increases in China are attributed to the rising CO2 concentrations. Aerosol optical depth in China decreased at a rate of 0.054 per decade from 2011 to 2023 due to significant air quality improvements. The weakened aerosol cooling effect due to declining aerosols contributes 27 ± 3% to the observed TXx trend. In eastern China, where aerosol reductions were most significant, aerosol reduction even accounts for 79 ± 10% of the TXx increasing trend. The intensifying heat waves attributed to GHGs and aerosols are in accordance with the increasing extreme high temperatures. The results highlight the significant impacts of rising GHGs and decreasing aerosols on heat extreme events over China in recent years, emphasizing the need of considering both GHGs and aerosols to address the issue of intensification of heat extremes in a warming future.

Zou, Aili↗
DOE OSTI2022

The detailed chemical abundance patterns of accreted halo stars from the optical to infrared

ABSTRACT Understanding the assembly of our Galaxy requires us to also characterize the systems that helped build it. In this work, we accomplish this by exploring the chemistry of accreted halo stars from Gaia-Enceladus/Gaia-Sausage (GES) selected in the infrared from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) Data Release 16. We use high resolution optical spectra for 62 GES stars to measure abundances in 20 elements spanning the α, Fe-peak, light, odd-Z, and notably, the neutron-capture groups of elements to understand their trends in the context of and in contrast to the Milky Way and other stellar populations. Using these derived abundances we find that the optical and the infrared abundances agree to within 0.15 dex except for O, Co, Na, Cu, and Ce. These stars have enhanced neutron-capture abundance trends compared to the Milky Way, and their [Eu/Mg] and neutron-capture abundance ratios (e.g. [Y/Eu], [Ba/Eu], [Zr/Ba], [La/Ba], and [Nd/Ba]) point to r-process enhancement and a delay in s-process enrichment. Their [α/Fe] trend is lower than the Milky Way trend for [Fe/H] > −1.5 dex, similar to previous studies of GES stars and consistent with the picture that these stars formed in a system with a lower rate of star formation. This is further supported by their depleted abundances in Ni, Na, and Cu abundances, again, similar to previous studies of low-α stars with accreted origins.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal, mechanical, and electrical properties of LSCo/mullite composite contact materials for solid oxide fuel cells

Lanthanum strontium cobaltite (LSCo) is considered as a good candidate cathode contact material for solid oxide fuel cells, due to high electrical conductivity. However, LSCo has a very large coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) than the cells and metallic interconnects. As a result, poor mechanical stability is expected during thermal cycling. To minimize the CTE mismatch, we investigate a composite approach involving mixing LSCo with an inert material of low CTE, such as mullite at volume fractions from 0.1 to 0.4. Composite’s CTE shows a decreasing trend with increasing mullite volume fractions, and is consistent with model predictions. X-ray powder diffraction analysis of sintered LSCo/mullite composites exhibits no presence of other phases for samples aged for 500h at 800oC, indicating chemical compatibility. Electrical conductivity by a 4-pt method shows a decreasing trend with increasing mullite content. Contact strength of as-sintered and thermally cycled samples show that only the composite with 0.4 volume fraction has a measurable strength; the other composites have no strength. Overall, the composite approach is demonstrated in the LSCo/mullite system to lower the CTE and hence achieve thermal cycle stability. The addition of the inert phase to the LSCo matrix; however, also reduces the electrical conductivity.

Contact materials, LSCo, mullite, CTE, electrical ↗