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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard 2D photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Bhartia, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evidence for Intersections of Coupled g-Mode Sets as a Source of High Frequency Oscillations in Sunspot Occurrence

We show that sunspots tend to appear at longitudes where coupled sets of g-mode oscillations are depositing the most energy. Since the g-mode sets rotate at predictable rates slower than the Sun, the same predictability should eventually apply to the location and strength of sunspots and other solar activity. When fully developed, this model would provide long term safety warnings for astronauts. In this paper, the rotation rates and initial longitudes of eleven g-mode sets are tested against observations. The paper concludes that the time series of sunspot numbers for the last century has oscillatory components with the same frequencies and temporal phases as the eleven g-mode sets.

Juckett, David A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High‑Risk Instability During Approach

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate Machine Learning Models of Nanoscale Porosity from Ultrafast NMR Relaxometry

Abstract Nanoporous materials are of great interest in many applications, such as catalysis, separation, and energy storage. The performance of these materials is closely related to their pore sizes, which are inefficient to determine through the conventional measurement of gas adsorption isotherms. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxometry has emerged as a technique highly sensitive to porosity in such materials. Nonetheless, streamlined methods to estimate pore size from NMR relaxometry remain elusive. Previous attempts have been hindered by inverting a time domain signal to relaxation rate distribution, and dealing with resulting parameters that vary in number, location, and magnitude. Here we invoke well‐established machine learning techniques to directly correlate time domain signals to BET surface areas for a set of metal‐organic frameworks (MOFs) imbibed with solvent at varied concentrations. We employ this series of MOFs to establish a correlation between NMR signal and surface area via partial least squares (PLS), following screening with principal component analysis, and apply the PLS model to predict surface area of various nanoporous materials. This approach offers a high‐throughput, non‐destructive way to assess porosity in c.a. one minute. We anticipate this work will contribute to the development of new materials with optimized pore sizes for various applications.

Fricke, Sophia N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate Machine Learning Models of Nanoscale Porosity from Ultrafast NMR Relaxometry

Abstract Nanoporous materials are of great interest in many applications, such as catalysis, separation, and energy storage. The performance of these materials is closely related to their pore sizes, which are inefficient to determine through the conventional measurement of gas adsorption isotherms. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxometry has emerged as a technique highly sensitive to porosity in such materials. Nonetheless, streamlined methods to estimate pore size from NMR relaxometry remain elusive. Previous attempts have been hindered by inverting a time domain signal to relaxation rate distribution, and dealing with resulting parameters that vary in number, location, and magnitude. Here we invoke well‐established machine learning techniques to directly correlate time domain signals to BET surface areas for a set of metal‐organic frameworks (MOFs) imbibed with solvent at varied concentrations. We employ this series of MOFs to establish a correlation between NMR signal and surface area via partial least squares (PLS), following screening with principal component analysis, and apply the PLS model to predict surface area of various nanoporous materials. This approach offers a high‐throughput, non‐destructive way to assess porosity in c.a. one minute. We anticipate this work will contribute to the development of new materials with optimized pore sizes for various applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Incorporating long-range dependence and fractal features in turbulence spectra

We introduce an advanced turbulence spectrum model developed from mathematical foundations from a covariance function class and empirically validated using extensive field data. This model captures the complex dynamics of long-range dependence, and fractal characteristics prevalent in riverine and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows that are ignored by classical spectrum models, such as IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) von Kármán and Kaimal model. The model delineates scaling behaviors across distinct frequency bands and offers substantial flexibility through five well-defined parameters each characterizing a distinct physical aspect of the velocity time series. A detailed procedure for obtaining each parameter from time series data is outlined. The comprehensive validations with field data from tidal currents and ABL flows substantiate the model’s fidelity in accurately replicating observed phenomena. This validation establishes the reliability of the proposed model and, when incorporated into stochastic full-field simulators such as TurbSim, demonstrates its potential to advance the predictive modeling and analysis of turbulent flows in environmental science and engineering contexts.

Cheng, Shyuan [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champai↗
NASA NTRS1995

Sensitivity analysis in multipole-accelerated panel methods for potential flow

In the design of an airframe, the effect of changing the geometry on resulting computations is necessary for design optimization. The geometry is defined in terms of a series of design variables, including design variables to define the wing planform, tail, canard, pylon, and nacelle. Design optimization in this research is based on how these design variable affect the potential flow. The potential flow is computed as a function of the geometry and location of a series of panels describing the airframe, which are in turn a function of the design variables. Multipole accelerated panel methods improve the computational complexity of the problem and thus are an attractive approach. To utilize the methods in design optimization, it was necessary to define the appropriate sensitivity derivatives. The overhead incurred from finding the sensitivity derivatives in conjunction with the original computation should be small. This research developed the background for multipole-accelerated panel methods and the framework for finding sensitivity derivatives in the methods. Potential flow panel codes are commonly used for powered-lift aerodynamic predictions for three dimensional geometries. Given an airframe which has been discretized into a series of panels to define the airframe geometry, potential is computed as a function of the influence of all panels on all other panels. This is a computationally intensive problem for which efficient solutions are desired to improve the computational time and to allow greater resolution by use of more panels. One such solution is the use of hierarchical multipole methods which entail approximations of the effects of far-field terms. Hierarchical multipole methods have become prevalent in molecular dynamics and gravitational physics, and have been introduced into the fields of capacitance calculations, computational fluid dynamics, and electromagnetics. The methods utilize multipole expansions to describe the effect of bodies (i.e. particles, astrophysical bodies, panels, etc.) within a sphere on points distant from the sphere, where the influence diminishes as a function of distance. The expansions are exact with infinite series, however, for practical computations, the series are truncated and accuracy is selected based on the number of terms retained in the expansions. A hierarchical tree structure groups bodies together based on proximity to allow definition of multipole expansions for each group. The multipole expansions are then used to compute the effect of the bodies in a group on distant bodies.

Leathrum, James F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Satellite-Based Evidence for Shrub and Graminoid Tundra Expansion in Northern Quebec from 1986-2010

Global vegetation models predict rapid poleward migration of tundra and boreal forest vegetation in response to climate warming. Local plot and air-photo studies have documented recent changes in high-latitude vegetation composition and structure, consistent with warming trends. To bridge these two scales of inference, we analyzed a 24-year (1986-2010) Landsat time series in a latitudinal transect across the boreal forest-tundra biome boundary in northern Quebec province, Canada. This region has experienced rapid warming during both winter and summer months during the last forty years. Using a per-pixel (30 m) trend analysis, 30% of the observable (cloud-free) land area experienced a significant (p < 0.05) positive trend in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, greening trends were not evenly split among cover types. Low shrub and graminoid tundra contributed preferentially to the greening trend, while forested areas were less likely to show significant trends in NDVI. These trends reflect increasing leaf area, rather than an increase in growing season length, because Landsat data were restricted to peak-summer conditions. The average NDVI trend (0.007/yr) corresponds to a leaf-area index (LAI) increase of ~0.6 based on the regional relationship between LAI and NDVI from the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Across the entire transect, the area-averaged LAI increase was ~0.2 during 1986-2010. A higher area-averaged LAI change (~0.3) within the shrub-tundra portion of the transect represents a 20-60% relative increase in LAI during the last two decades. Our Landsat-based analysis subdivides the overall high-latitude greening trend into changes in peak-summer greenness by cover type. Different responses within and among shrub, graminoid, and tree-dominated cover types in this study indicate important fine-scale heterogeneity in vegetation growth. Although our findings are consistent with community shifts in low-biomass vegetation types over multi-decadal time scales, the response in tundra and forest ecosystems to recent warming was not uniform.

McManus, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Likelihood-Based Climate Model Evaluation

Climate models are deterministic, mathematical descriptions of the physics of climate. Confidence in predictions of future climate is increased if the physics are verifiably correct. A necessary, (but not sufficient) condition is that past and present climate be simulated well. Quantify the likelihood that a (summary statistic computed from a) set of observations arises from a physical system with the characteristics captured by a model generated time series. Given a prior on models, we can go further: posterior distribution of model given observations.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2021

Confronting Future Models with Future Satellite Observations of Clouds and Aerosols

The NASA Aerosol, Clouds, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) Study convened a workshop in November 2020 to understand the future of modeling aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation, and how satellite data can contribute to that future. ACCP is a project to define a satellite mission to be launched late in the 2020’s to advance cloud and aerosol science, following the recommendations of the latest NASA Decadal Survey. The ACCP modeling workshop goal was to answer the following questions: 1. What will be the critical science questions for clouds and aerosols in 10 years? 2. Where will simulations of clouds and aerosols across scales of space (process models to global) and time (nowcasting to climate prediction) be in 10 years? 3. What data will be available from space? What data would provide the most benefit? 4. What are the state of the art methods for confronting models with cloud and aerosol observations, including assimilation and climatological analysis techniques? The virtual workshop was anchored by a series of pre-recorded talks. Two days of synchronous sessions focused on discussion of the talks, along with small group breakout exercises. After an introduction to the ACCP concept came a panel discussing the future of modeling clouds and aerosols across scales. Participants were then asked to contribute their ideas. On the second day, there were two panel discussions. First came a discussion of the future of satellite observing systems. Second was a discussion of model-data synthesis methods. Finally, participants were asked to develop their own model-data synthesis proposal. The meeting began with an overview of the ACCP mission concept by Graeme Stephens (NASA-JPL). ACCP is a satellite mission for clouds and aerosols, likely anchored by advanced active lidar and radar systems in space, designed to observe detailed aerosol profile and type information, as well as cloud microphysics and dynamics. ACCP will integrate across sensors and observational types to get multi-spectral views of the same scenes, with better resolution than is available today. Launch is scheduled for 2027 or 2029. ACCP is being thought of as a comprehensive mission that may comprise more than one platform and more than one orbit plane (i.e., inclined and polar), with multiple combinations of sensors.

Future Models↗
DOE OSTI2026

UCB-GLOBES: An open-access mass spectral database of identified and unidentified atmospheric organic compounds

Chemical characterization of atmospheric organic aerosols using gas chromatography with 70 eV electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC/EI-MS) has been used for decades in advancing molecular marker detection and identification, though primarily through suspect screening and/or targeted analyses. To advance non-targeted analyses of environmental samples, we have catalogued approximately 27 000 mass spectra (MS) of the trimethylsilyl derivatives of semi-volatile organic aerosol (OA) analytes in the open-access University of California Berkeley Goldstein Library of Organic Biogenic Environmental Spectra (UCB-GLOBES). Analytes were observed in ambient samples from the U.S. and the Central Amazon and/or laboratory simulations of secondary OA (SOA) formation. These samples are representative of OA under urban and biomass burning influences as well as SOA derived from biogenic precursors (e.g., isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes) and biomass burning intermediates. MS are documented in UCB-GLOBES without regard to known chemical identity, annotated with extensive metadata such as sample source/experimental conditions, any structural information gained from MS analyses, and predicted chemical properties such as average carbon oxidation state and carbon number. UCB-GLOBES MS are compatible for importing into the NIST MS Search program, and we have also provided a Jupyter Notebook for MS visualization and comparisons. We demonstrate the utility of UCB-GLOBES through MS reanalyses of prior analytes observed in ambient data, finding a 20 % reduction in the number of analytes assigned to OA source categories reliant solely on time series correlation and an overall 11 % increase in new MS-based OA source categorization for the Southeast U.S. For 1513 analytes observed previously in the Central Amazon, we found 375 MS matches using UCB-GLOBES vs. 136 MS matches during prior analyses, representing a 14 % gain in newly confirmed or newly categorized OA species. While OA from laboratory oxidation experiments in UCB-GLOBES are highly diverse chemically, on average only 29 % of UCB-GLOBES MS have a mass spectral match to another MS entry in UCB-GLOBES and/or in databases of known compounds (i.e. NIST MS Database, Adams Essential Oil, MANE Flavor and Fragrance Company). This indicates that roughly 70 % of UCB-GLOBES MS are unique thus far, not observed more than once among the laboratory oxidation samples and ambient data in UCB-GLOBES MS. Further, only 18 % can be positively identified using these databases or known authentic standards. This points to a large gap between these laboratory simulations and ambient OA. Overall, the UCB-GLOBES database can be utilized for improving confidence in OA source categorization and/or identification, novel chemical marker discovery, tracking chemical diversity, de novo structure and properties prediction, and improving MS search and matching algorithms. This can ultimately inform future research priorities for the chemical characterization of atmospheric organic samples.

Mass spectrometry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online monitoring of lanthanide species with combined spectroscopy in flowing aqueous aerosol systems

Combined spectroscopic analysis through absorption and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was used to monitor Nd and Pr concentrations in a flowing aqueous system. A unique, online sampling approach was employed that allowed for an approximately closed analysis loop of liquids from a reservoir. Absorption spectroscopy was performed with an optical flow cell, and LIBS was performed on an aerosol stream. Multivariate calibrations based on combined absorption and LIBS signals were built for Nd and Pr and then used to monitor concentrations in mixed solutions in a series of spiking tests. In these tests, the concentrations of Nd and Pr in solution were intermittently changed while spectroscopic signals were monitored in real-time. The combined spectroscopic signals and multivariate models were successful in monitoring changing concentrations of lanthanide species with high accuracy and minimal latency. Root-mean squared error of predictions were 0.015 mol L −1 and 0.019 mol L −1 for Nd and Pr respectively, and these lanthanides were able to be monitored to an accuracy of < 0.2 wt%. This work demonstrates both the capabilities of a sampling system for online analysis of liquids and the capabilities of multimodal spectroscopic characterization for real-time, continuous tracking of species in potentially hazardous liquid systems.

absorbance spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elastic Changepoint Detection for Globally-indexed Functional Time Series Data with Climate Applications

Changepoint detection is a vital tool in the application of climate data analysis. Numerous types of climate observation data are most properly represented by functional time series, implying a need for accurate changepoint detection methods applicable to functional time series data. Such data taken at a global scale often contain both spatial heterogeneity and dependence as well as phase (time) misalignment. In this report, we present methods which can detect spatially-dependent changepoints while allowing different estimates of change time and change strength depending on location. Additionally, we provide extensions to this spatially-predicted model which controls for phase variability among observations. Our methods provide the ability to detect a single change, or control for epidemic changes (where a “return-to-normal” change is more likely to be detected than the initial change). We showcase results analyzing the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, where our methods demonstrate the ability to accurately detect both single and epidemic changepoints even in the presence of strong seasonal variability. We find that our spatially-predicted model improves the detection of relevant changepoints versus methods which do not take spatial information into account, and we find that controlling for phase variability helps to control the false discovery rate during the detection process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The value of wake steering wind farm flow control in US energy markets

Abstract. Wind farm flow control represents a category of control strategies for achieving wind-plant-level objectives, such as increasing wind plant power production and/or reducing structural loads, by mitigating the impact of wake interactions between wind turbines. Wake steering is a wind farm flow control technology in which specific turbines are misaligned with the wind to deflect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thus increasing overall wind plant power production. In addition to promising results from simulation studies, wake steering has been shown to successfully increase energy production through several recent field trials. However, to better understand the benefits of wind farm flow control strategies such as wake steering, the value of the additional energy to the electrical grid should be evaluated – for example, by considering the price of electricity when the additional energy is produced. In this study, we investigate the potential for wake steering to increase the value of wind plant energy production by combining model predictions of power gains using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) engineering wind farm flow control tool with historical electricity price data for 15 existing US wind plants in four different electricity market regions. Specifically, for each wind plant, we use FLORIS to estimate power gains from wake steering for a time series of hourly wind speeds and wind directions spanning the years 2018–2020, obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The modeled power gains are then correlated with hourly electricity prices for the nearest transmission node. Through this process we find that wake steering increases annual energy production (AEP) between 0.4 % and 1.7 %, depending on the wind plant, with average increases in potential annual revenue (i.e., annual revenue of production, ARP) 4 % higher than the AEP gains. For most wind plants, ARP gain was found to exceed AEP gain. But the ratio between ARP gain and AEP gain is greater for wind plants in regions with high wind penetration because electricity prices tend to be relatively higher during periods with below-rated wind plant power production, when wake losses occur and wake steering is active; for wind plants in the Southwest Power Pool – the region with the highest wind penetration analyzed (31 %) – the increase in ARP from wake steering is 11 % higher than the AEP gain. Consequently, we expect the value of wake steering, and other types of wind farm flow control, to increase as wind penetration continues to grow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1971

A note on laminar shear flow over impulsively started bodies.

Prediction of the shear flow around bodies impulsively set into motion at a uniform velocity. Information is presented on the local wall shear stress, velocity distribution, steady flow times, and thermal response for wedge flows where local flow acceleration occurs. The essential features of the flow field are found to be describable by the approximate series expansion method of Goldstein and Rosenhead (1936). This method would appear to be useful in rapidly calculating the viscous drag on the forward face of various shaped bodies where local flow acceleration occurs.

Back, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Enhanced CARES Software Enables Improved Ceramic Life Prediction

The NASA Lewis Research Center has developed award-winning software that enables American industry to establish the reliability and life of brittle material (e.g., ceramic, intermetallic, graphite) structures in a wide variety of 21st century applications. The CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) series of software is successfully used by numerous engineers in industrial, academic, and government organizations as an essential element of the structural design and material selection processes. The latest version of this software, CARES/Life, provides a general- purpose design tool that predicts the probability of failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. CARES/Life was recently enhanced by adding new modules designed to improve functionality and user-friendliness. In addition, a beta version of the newly-developed CARES/Creep program (for determining the creep life of monolithic ceramic components) has just been released to selected organizations.

Janosik, Lesley A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Large 0/12 GMT Differences of US Vaisala RS80 Observations

The daily differences between the temperatures and heights taken at 0 GMT and 12 GMT by Vaisala RS80 rawinsondes have been calculated. The observations were obtained during selected months from 1998 - 2002 over North America, Europe and Australia. The daily differences are defined by the formula, Delta T = Delta T(sub 0) - 0.5(T(sub -12) - T(sub +12)) where AT is the 0/12 GMT difference, T(sub 0) is the 0 GMT observation and T(sub -12) and T(sub +12) are the 12 GMT observations taken just prior and after the 0 GMT synoptic time. If T(sub +12) is missing then Delta T = T(sub 0) - T(sub -12). A similar expression is used if T(sub -12) is missing. Monthly averages of the increments at each station that launch RS80 rawinsondes are then calculated. The results show positive systematic differences in the stratosphere with values as high as 5 K and 150 m at 10 hPa over the central United States. The values remain generally positive and gradually decrease as the levels descend into the upper troposphere but are still significant. In addition, the maximum at each level is just westward of 90 W at the highest levels and just eastward in the troposphere with smaller values along both coasts. In Canada as well as in Europe and Australia the differences are much smaller with no systematic patterns similar to those that exist over the contiguous United States. Time-series plots of the temperatures and heights at select stations in the United States show that the observed values taken at 0 GMT are consistently higher than those at 12 GMT. Over Canada the differences become much less apparent and some cases non-existent. The observations were obtained through National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) but were checked with data from other sources to verify that no modifications were made other than those at the stations. Since the data from outside the the United States exhibit no large systematic differences, the preliminary conclusion is that the large differences are artificial and probably originate from the post-processing software at the observing stations.

Redder, Chris↗