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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Discovering System Health Anomalies Using Data Mining Techniques

We present a data mining framework for the analysis and discovery of anomalies in high-dimensional time series of sensor measurements that would be found in an Integrated System Health Monitoring system. We specifically treat the problem of discovering anomalous features in the time series that may be indicative of a system anomaly, or in the case of a manned system, an anomaly due to the human. Identification of these anomalies is crucial to building stable, reusable, and cost-efficient systems. The framework consists of an analysis platform and new algorithms that can scale to thousands of sensor streams to discovers temporal anomalies. We discuss the mathematical framework that underlies the system and also describe in detail how this framework is general enough to encompass both discrete and continuous sensor measurements. We also describe a new set of data mining algorithms based on kernel methods and hidden Markov models that allow for the rapid assimilation, analysis, and discovery of system anomalies. We then describe the performance of the system on a real-world problem in the aircraft domain where we analyze the cockpit data from aircraft as well as data from the aircraft propulsion, control, and guidance systems. These data are discrete and continuous sensor measurements and are dealt with seamlessly in order to discover anomalous flights. We conclude with recommendations that describe the tradeoffs in building an integrated scalable platform for robust anomaly detection in ISHM applications.

Sriastava, Ashok, N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Baycal

Bayesian Model Calibration (BayCal) toolkit is a software plugin for Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework, arming at inversely quantifying the uncertainties associated with simulation model parameters based on available experiment data. BayCal seeks statistical inference of the uncertain input parameters that are consistent with the available measurement data or observed data. The unique feature of BayCal is the capability to be linked with RAVEN to build corresponding calibration workflows for complex multi-physics simulations. In addition to be able to use the machine learning capability of RAVEN to significantly reduce the computational cost of expensive simulation models, another distinctive feature of BayCal is the capability to deal with high-dimensional correlated model outputs, such as time series observations at multiple locations, via principal component analysis (PCA) technique.

Wang, Congjian↗
NASA NTRS1995

Is walking a random walk? Evidence for long-range correlations in stride interval of human gait

Complex fluctuation of unknown origin appear in the normal gait pattern. These fluctuations might be described as being (1) uncorrelated white noise, (2) short-range correlations, or (3) long-range correlations with power-law scaling. To test these possibilities, the stride interval of 10 healthy young men was measured as they walked for 9 min at their usual rate. From these time series we calculated scaling indexes by using a modified random walk analysis and power spectral analysis. Both indexes indicated the presence of long-range self-similar correlations extending over hundreds of steps; the stride interval at any time depended on the stride interval at remote previous times, and this dependence decayed in a scale-free (fractallike) power-law fashion. These scaling indexes were significantly different from those obtained after random shuffling of the original time series, indicating the importance of the sequential ordering of the stride interval. We demonstrate that conventional models of gait generation fail to reproduce the observed scaling behavior and introduce a new type of central pattern generator model that sucessfully accounts for the experimentally observed long-range correlations.

Hausdorff, Jeffrey M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Near-Surface Flow Fields Deduced Using Correlation Tracking and Time-Distance Analysis

Near-photospheric flow fields on the Sun are deduced using two independent methods applied to the same time series of velocity images observed by SOI-MDI on SOHO. Differences in travel times between f modes entering and leaving each pixel measured using time-distance helioseismology are used to determine sites of supergranular outflows. Alternatively, correlation tracking analysis of mesogranular scales of motion applied to the same time series is used to deduce the near-surface flow field. These two approaches provide the means to assess the patterns and evolution of horizontal flows on supergranular scales even near disk center, which is not feasible with direct line-of-sight Doppler measurements. We find that the locations of the supergranular outflows seen in flow fields generated from correlation tracking coincide well with the locations of the outflows determined from the time-distance analysis, with a mean correlation coefficient after smoothing of bar-r(sub s) = 0.840. Near-surface velocity field measurements can used to study the evolution of the supergranular network, as merging and splitting events are observed to occur in these images. The data consist of one 2048-minute time series of high-resolution (0.6" pixels) line-of-sight velocity images taken by MDI on 1997 January 16-18 at a cadence of one minute.

DeRosa, Marc↗
NASA NTRS1990

A laboratory measurement of CCD photometric and dimensional stability

The sun exhibits periodic and quasi-periodic variability in its total luminosity, which provides information about its internal structure and dynamics. Variability ranges from a few minutes to many-year time scales, with amplitudes as small as a few ppm in the milliHz band. Extension of this analysis to a large sample of outer stars would be interesting: a panoramic detector such as a CCD could record many stars at once. To meet this objective, a ppm time-series differential precision is required. Laboratory CCD photometric measurements presented here are promising for such an instrument. Normalizing the response from a portion of the CCD area removes most of the individual-frame variability. When a trend attributed to a thermal transient in the CCD dewar is removed, the individual-frame photometric precision is about 0.0001, limited by photoelectron counting statistics. The time-series power spectrum is flat within the desired frequency domain. Analysis of the dimensional stability of the CCD within the same data set indicates better than ppm performance, when first-order bulk motion and magnification changes are removed.

Buffington, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2005

Giovanni: A System for Rapid Access, Visualization and Analysis of Earth Science Data Online

Collecting data and understanding data structures traditionally are the first steps that a user must take, before the core investigation can begin. This is a time-consuming and challenging task, especially when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data that are usually in different formats and internal structures. The Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has created the GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and ANalysis Infrastructure, Giovanni, to enable Web-based visualization and analysis of satellite remotely sensed meteorological, oceanographic, and hydrologic data sets, without users having to download data. The current operational Giovanni interfaces provide the capability to process a number of important satellite measurements, such as (1) ozone and other trace gases from TOMS, OMI, HALOE, and MLS; (2) air temperature, water vapor, and geopotential height from AIRS; (3) aerosols from MODIS TerrdAqua, and GOCART model; (4) precipitation from TRMM and ground measurements; (5) chlorophyll and other ocean color products from SeaWiFS and MODIS Aqua; and (6) sea surface temperature from MODIS Aqua. Depending on the input data structure, the system provides simple statistical analysis and creates time-averaged area plot, area-averaged time series, animations, Hovmoller latitude vs. time and longitude vs. time plots, as well as vertical profiles. The inter-comparison interfaces allow a user to compare observations from different instruments, to conduct anomaly analysis, and to study basic relationships between physical parameters. Giovanni handles data with different temporal and spatial resolutions and, thus, enables both regional and global long-term climate research and short-term special events investigation, as well as data validations and assessments. Because of its simplicity of usage, Giovanni is powerful and versatile, able to assist a wide range of users, from the discipline scientists conducting preliminary research in various fields, to students in the classroom learning about weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. Giovanni can be accessed from: http://disc. esfc.nasa.gov/techlab/giovanni/index.shtml

Shen, S.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Age-related alterations in the fractal scaling of cardiac interbeat interval dynamics

We postulated that aging is associated with disruption in the fractallike long-range correlations that characterize healthy sinus rhythm cardiac interval dynamics. Ten young (21-34 yr) and 10 elderly (68-81 yr) rigorously screened healthy subjects underwent 120 min of continuous supine resting electrocardiographic recording. We analyzed the interbeat interval time series using standard time and frequency domain statistics and using a fractal measure, detrended fluctuation analysis, to quantify long-range correlation properties. In healthy young subjects, interbeat intervals demonstrated fractal scaling, with scaling exponents (alpha) from the fluctuation analysis close to a value of 1.0. In the group of healthy elderly subjects, the interbeat interval time series had two scaling regions. Over the short range, interbeat interval fluctuations resembled a random walk process (Brownian noise, alpha = 1.5), whereas over the longer range they resembled white noise (alpha = 0.5). Short (alpha s)- and long-range (alpha 1) scaling exponents were significantly different in the elderly subjects compared with young (alpha s = 1.12 +/- 0.19 vs. 0.90 +/- 0.14, respectively, P = 0.009; alpha 1 = 0.75 +/- 0.17 vs. 0.99 +/- 0.10, respectively, P = 0.002). The crossover behavior from one scaling region to another could be modeled as a first-order autoregressive process, which closely fit the data from four elderly subjects. This implies that a single characteristic time scale may be dominating heartbeat control in these subjects. The age-related loss of fractal organization in heartbeat dynamics may reflect the degradation of integrated physiological regulatory systems and may impair an individual's ability to adapt to stress.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA Tech Briefs, November 2012

The topics include: Visual System for Browsing, Analysis, and Retrieval of Data (ViSBARD); Time-Domain Terahertz Computed Axial Tomography NDE System; Adaptive Sampling of Time Series During Remote Exploration; A Tracking Sun Photometer Without Moving Parts; Surface Temperature Data Analysis; Modular, Autonomous Command and Data Handling Software with Built-In Simulation and Test; In-Situ Wire Damage Detection System; Amplifier Module for 260-GHz Band Using Quartz Waveguide Transitions; Wideband Agile Digital Microwave Radiometer; Buckyball Nucleation of HiPco Tubes; FACT, Mega-ROSA, SOLAROSA; An Integrated, Layered-Spinel Composite Cathode for Energy Storage Applications; Engineered Multifunctional Surfaces for Fluid Handling; Polyolefin-Based Aerogels; Adjusting Permittivity by Blending Varying Ratios of SWNTs; Gravity-Assist Mechanical Simulator for Outreach; Concept for Hydrogen-Impregnated Nanofiber/Photovoltaic Cargo Stowage System; DROP: Durable Reconnaissance and Observation Platform; Developing Physiologic Models for Emergency Medical Procedures Under Microgravity; Spectroscopic Chemical Analysis Methods and Apparatus; Low Average Sidelobe Slot Array Antennas for Radiometer Applications; Motion-Corrected 3D Sonic Anemometer for Tethersondes and Other Moving Platforms; Water Treatment Systems for Long Spaceflights; Microchip Non-Aqueous Capillary Electrophoresis (MicronNACE) Method to Analyze Long-Chain Primary Amines; Low-Cost Phased Array Antenna for Sounding Rockets, Missiles, and Expendable Launch Vehicles; Mars Science Laboratory Engineering Cameras; Seismic Imager Space Telescope; Estimating Sea Surface Salinity and Wind Using Combined Passive and Active L-Band Microwave Observations; A Posteriori Study of a DNS Database Describing Super critical Binary-Species Mixing; Scalable SCPPM Decoder; QuakeSim 2.0; HURON (HUman and Robotic Optimization Network) Multi-Agent Temporal Activity Planner/Scheduler; MPST Software: MoonKommand

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1994

Calibration of TOPEX/POSEIDON at Platform Harvest

We present estimates for the mean bias of the TOPEX/POSEIDON NASA altimeter (ALT) and the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales altimeter (SSALT) using in-situ data gathered at Platform Harvest during the first 36 cycles of the mission. Data for 21 overflights of the ALT and six overflights of the SSALT have been analyzed. The analysis includes an independent assessment of in-situ measurements of sea level, the radial component of the orbit, wet tropospheric path delay, and ionospheric path delay. (The sign convention used is such that, to correct the geophysical data record values for sea level, add the bias algebraically. Unless otherwise stated, the uncertainty in a given parameter is depicted by +/- sigma(sub x), where sigma(sub x) is the sample standard deviation of x about the mean.) Tide gauges at Harvest provide estimates of sea level with an uncertainty of +/- 1.5 cm. The uncertainty in the radial component of the orbit is estimated to be +/- 1.3 cm. In-situ measurements of tropopsheric path delay at Harvest compare to within +/- 1.3 cm of the TOPEX/POSEIDON microwave radiometer, and in-situ measurements of the ionospheric path delay compare to within -0.4 +/- 0.7 cm of the dual-frequency ALT and 1.1 +/- 0.6 cm of Doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellite. We obtain mean bias estimates of -14.5 +/- 2.9 cm for the ALT and +0.9 +/- 3.1 cm for the SSALT (where the uncertainties are based on the standard deviation of the estimated mean (sigma(sub bar x/y), which is derived from sample statistics and estimates for errors that cannot be observed). These results are consistent with independent estimates for the relative bias between the two altimeters. A linear regression applied to the complete set of data shows that there is a discernable secular trend in the time series for the ALT bias estimates. A preliminary analysis of data obtained through cycle 48 suggests that the apparent secular drift may be the result of a poorly sampled annual signal.

Christensen, E. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

TOMS and SBUV Data: Comparison to 3D Chemical-Transport Model Results

We have updated our merged ozone data (MOD) set using the TOMS data from the new version 8 algorithm. We then analyzed these data for contributions from solar cycle, volcanoes, QBO, and halogens using a standard statistical time series model. We have recently completed a hindcast run of our 3D chemical-transport model for the same years. This model uses off-line winds from the finite-volume GCM, a full stratospheric photochemistry package, and time-varying forcing due to halogens, solar uv, and volcanic aerosols. We will report on a parallel analysis of these model results using the same statistical time series technique as used for the MOD data.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Geosat crossover analysis in the tropical Pacific. II - Verification analysis of altimetric sea level maps with expendable bathythermograph and island sea level data

Altimetric sea level time series for the tropical Pacific have been generated from the Geosat crossover differences during the classified era of the Geosat mission from April 1985 to September 1986. These are compared with the expendable bathythermograph (XBT)-derived dynamic height and island sea level observations, yielding good agreement. A complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is also applied to the altimetric and XBT results. The analysis demonstrates the dominance of the annual signal in this relatively short time series and the westward propagation of major features away from the equator.

Tai, Chang-Kou↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of the GeoNEX Level 2G Products: Exploiting the Diurnal Variability of TOA Reflectance in Atmospheric Correction

This study develops a new atmospheric correction algorithm to generate the Level 2G products, in particular the gap-filled Surface Reflectance at 10-minute time steps, for the Geostationary-NASA Earth Exchange (GeoNEX) project. The algorithm is based on the MODIS MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) framework but with significant modifications to exploit angular/temporal information from the diurnal variability of the GeoNEX L1G TOA (Top-of-Atmosphere) reflectance. The algorithm starts by evaluating the roughness/smoothness of the diurnal time series of the TOA reflectance. Because rapid changes in TOA reflectance are generally caused by passing clouds or shadows, rough segments of the time series are automatically filtered out while the smooth segments are further tested for brightness and temperature to identify clear-sky and snow-free observations. Next the algorithm runs the MAIAC RTM (Radiative Transfer Model) to retrieve the Ross-Thick-Li-Sparse (RTLS) BRDF model parameters and the daily-mean atmospheric optical depth (AOD) that allow the RTM to optimally simulate the observed diurnal variability of clear-sky TOA reflectance. Once the initial RTLS parameters are retrieved after the algorithm’s burn-in period, they are used as the prior information to predict the AOD level for the next days, while the subsequent clear-sky observations are used to make necessary adjustments to the RTLS parameters in an continuous fashion. This “prediction-analysis” cycle is then iterated to process the full time series of the L1G data, skipping only total-cloudy days or when surface snow is detected. We tested the algorithm over a list of selected AERONET sites. The retrieved results (the daily mean AOD and the RTLS parameters) reasonably agree with the ground-based measurements. Importantly, the results indicate that the diurnal cycles of surface reflectance are continuous functions of the illumination-view geometry. Thus we can use the retrieved RTLS model to accurately fill in data gaps on partial cloudy days. Also, our algorithm is totally independent from the traditional approaches based on the use of spectral band ratios between the shortwave infrared (e.g., 2.2µm) and the visible (e.g., 0.47µm and 0.64µm) bands. Our results thus demonstrate that the high-frequent diurnal geostationary observations contain unique information that helps us improve atmospheric correction of remote sensing data.

GeoNEX↗
NASA NTRS2018

Practical Aspects of the Frequency Domain Approach for Aircraft System Identification

Practical aspects of the frequency-domain approach for aircraft system identification are explained and demonstrated. Topics related to experiment design, flight data analysis, and dynamic modeling are included. For demonstration purposes, simulated time series data and simulated flight data from an F-16 nonlinear simulation with realistic noise are used. This approach enables detailed evaluations of the techniques and results, because the true characteristics of the data and aircraft dynamics are known for the simulated data. Analytical techniques and practical considerations are examined for the finite Fourier transform, nonparametric frequency response estimation, parametric modeling in the frequency domain, experiment design for frequency-domain modeling, data analysis and modeling in the frequency domain, and real-time calculations. Flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft are used to demonstrate some of the techniques and technical issues.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven evaluation of HVAC operation and savings in commercial buildings

Commercial buildings consumed 36% of electricity, or 1.35 trillion kWh, in the United States in 2017, and almost 30% of this energy was wasted. Much of this loss can be attributed to inefficient heating ventilation and air con­ditioning (HVAC) systems. By improving the operational conditions of HVAC, significant savings can be achieved. However, most buildings and building equipment do not use costly sub-meters to monitor and address performance issues, and on-site auditing can be expensive and insufficient. Alternatively in this study, we propose a data-driven method to identify savings opportunities using only whole building meter data and without setting foot in the building. For this purpose, we introduced two algorithms that virtually quantify the value of a thermostat setpoint setback and HVAC rescheduling. Additionally, we developed novel methods for detecting occupancy patterns and quantifying the baseload of the HVAC operation. Using a clustering algorithm, we identified those buildings for which HVAC savings was significant and further categorized the buildings based on their potential for savings. A population study of over 432 commercial buildings demonstrated a median percentage energy savings of 1.6% from a baseload reduction and 2.1% from HVAC rescheduling. Additionally, results indicate that retail buildings have the highest potential for savings among the building types studied.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Short-term apartment-level load forecasting using a modified neural network with selected auto-regressive features

Residential electricity load profiles and their diversity have become increasingly important to realize the benefits of Smart or Transactive Energy Networks (TENs). An important element of TENs will be practical, accurate, and implementable residential load forecasting techniques. While there have been many approaches to short-term load forecasting, few have included forecasting for individual households, partly because the high volatility and idiosyncrasies present in individual household load data can pose significant challenges. In this study, we develop a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory-based neural network with Selected Autoregressive Features (termed a CLSAF model) to improve short-term household electricity load forecasting accuracy by employing three strategies: autoregressive features selection, exogenous features selection, and a “default” state to avoid overfitting at times of high load volatility. We include aggregations of apartments to floor and building level, because utilities may favor transactive approaches that rely on aggregator models, e.g., a cluster of consumers as opposed to an individual. We demonstrate that the CLSAF model, by virtue of its enhanced feature representation and modest computational resources, can accomplish load forecasting in a multi-family residential building across three spatial granularities (individual apartment/household, floor, and building levels), with an accuracy improvement of up to 25% compared to a persistence model. We propose a data screening technique to characterize time-series electricity-load data. This technique is suitable for integration into a TEN ecosystem and allows one to estimate confidence levels of the load forecasts to optimize computational resources and the risks associated with uncertain forecasts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗