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Evaluation of artificial neural network performance for classification of potato plants infected with potato virus Y using spectral data on multiple varieties and genotypes

Potato virus Y (Potyviridae, PVY) is a plant virus that poses a significant threat to potato producers on a global basis. The pathogen has disrupted seed potato supplies and negatively impacted yield and quality of commercial potato crops. The potato industry currently manages PVY infection levels via insecticide applications, regional seed certification programs that rely on field scouting to visually assess individual plants for infection status, and destructive and costly tissue sampling coupled with laboratory assays. Despite these efforts, PVY continues to confound potato industry stakeholders resulting in economic harm. Remote sensing and machine learning provide for the development of new tools to more accurately detect and spatially quantify PVY-infected plants versus the current state of the art. However, there is a need to understand how the occurrence of many different potato varieties impact the dynamics of developing models to detect potato plants impacted with PVY and their potential effectiveness. This study evaluates classification modelling outcomes using spectral datasets collected in different temporal and spatial environments (greenhouse and a production field) on multiple potato varieties consisting of labelled instances of plants infected with PVY and those not infected with the virus. A modelling framework was developed to support iterative modelling runs using artificial neural network (ANN) architectures configured as binary classifiers to develop sample populations to support statistical analysis on model performance using specific spectral subsets. When using spectral data to detect PVY-infected plants, ANN models achieved the highest mean accuracy of 0.894 on a single variety. Conversely, the same ANN model architecture only achieved a mean accuracy of 0.575 on a spectral data set representing 29 potato breeding lines. Additionally, statistical analysis indicates spectral regions including the red edge, near infrared and shortwave infrared contain more important spectral features for the ANN classifier introduced in this research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA attempts to determine the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks (and their corresponding uncertainties, if known) to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid & orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. With so many uncertainties believed to be present in the models used within BUMPER II, providing uncertainty bounds with BUMPER II results would appear to be essential to properly evaluating its predictions of MMOD risk. The uncertainties in BUMPER II come primarily from three areas: damage prediction/ballistic limit equations, environment models, and failure criteria definitions. In order to quantify the overall uncertainty bounds on MMOD risk predictions, the uncertainties in these three areas must be identified. In this paper, possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the shuttle and station versions of BUMPER II are presented and discussed. We begin the paper with a review of the current approaches used by NASA to perform a PRA for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, followed by a review of the results of a recent sensitivity analysis performed by NASA using the shuttle version of the BUMPER II code. Following a discussion of the various equations that are encoded in BUMPER II, we propose several possible approaches for establishing uncertainty bounds for the equations within BUMPER II. We conclude with an evaluation of these approaches and present a recommendation regarding which of them would be the most appropriate to follow.

Schonberg, W. P.↗

A Plan to Qualify New Fuel for the High Flux Isotope Reactor for Material Minimization

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is one of five high power research reactors the Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) Program, Office of Conversion is working to convert from using highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel to using low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. This effort stems from the primary objective within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to achieve permanent threat reduction by minimizing, and when possible, eliminating weapon-usable nuclear material around the world. Under M3’s Office of Conversion, the U.S. High Performance Research Reactor (USHPRR) Project is pursuing fuel qualification and licensing of LEU fuels to support the high-performance reactors. All high-performance reactors except HFIR will be converted to LEU monolithic uranium-molybdenum alloy fuel. HFIR will be evaluated for conversion to LEU using a uranium silicide fuel, namely, U3Si2-Al dispersion fuel. The mission of the USHPRR Project is to develop the technology needed to reduce, and eventually eliminate, worldwide use of HEU in civilian applications. The goal is to develop the technical means needed to use low enriched uranium (LEU) instead of HEU fuel in research and test reactors without significant penalties in performance, economics, or safety of the reactors. The USHPRR Project has four major elements, called Pillars: Fuel Qualification (FQ) managed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Fuel Fabrication (FF) managed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Reactor Conversion (RC) managed at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), and Cross-Cutting (CC) managed at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). FQ is responsible for the qualification of the fuel type. RC is responsible for supporting reactor conversion analysis and overseeing licensing submittals leading to conversions of domestic reactors to LEU fuel. For the FQ effort, FQ (INL) worked in collaboration with RC (Argonne) and ORNL to develop the plan for the uranium silicide fuel qualification for HFIR. The resulting HFIR Fuel Qualification Plan provides the general approach for the USHPRR team to move the selected uranium silicide fuel design for HFIR conversion through qualification. Authorization and use in HFIR will be approved through the DOE’s Office of Science. Uranium silicide fuel was previously qualified in NUREG-1313 at an approximate maximum heat flux of 1.4 MW/m2 and a maximum fuel section temperature of about 130°C. In addition to the different regulator process utilized by DOE, these upper limits will be exceeded in HFIR; therefore, further testing will be necessary to ensure the fuel can meet HFIR qualification requirements. The HFIR fuel loading may exceed 4.8 gU/cm3 which was determined in the NUREG-1313 safety evaluation to be acceptable for use in non-power NRC-licensed reactors provided there exist no other safety considerations. In addition, the uranium silicide fuel will need to be qualified in a HFIR-specific design. This plan includes the currently available information from the USHPRR Project Functions and Requirements document and expands these requirements to ensure that planned tests have traceable results providing evidence that the requirements have been met. Data collection methods are discussed as well as the process to show that the requirements have been met. This document is designed to provide a pathway for researchers to obtain data necessary and at the appropriate quality level for HFIR fuel qualification

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Plan to Qualify New Fuel for the High Flux Isotope Reactor for Material Minimization

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is one of five high power research reactors the Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) Program, Office of Conversion is working to convert from using highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel to using low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. This effort stems from the primary objective within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to achieve permanent threat reduction by minimizing, and when possible, eliminating weapon-usable nuclear material around the world. Under M3’s Office of Conversion, the U.S. High Performance Research Reactor (USHPRR) Project is pursuing fuel qualification and licensing of the high-performance reactors to operate with LEU fuels. All high-performance reactors except HFIR will be converted to LEU monolithic uranium-molybdenum alloy fuel. HFIR will be evaluated for conversion to LEU using a uranium silicide fuel, namely, U3Si2-Al dispersion fuel.The mission of the USHPRR Project is to develop the technology needed to reduce, and eventually eliminate, worldwide use of HEU in civilian applications. The goal is to develop the technical means needed to use low enriched uranium (LEU) instead of HEU fuel in research and test reactors without significant penalties in performance, economics, or safety of the reactors. The USHPRR Project has four major elements, called Pillars: Fuel Qualification (FQ) managed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Fuel Fabrication (FF) managed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Reactor Conversion (RC) managed at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), and Cross-Cutting (CC) managed at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). FQ is responsible for the qualification of the fuel type. RC is responsible for supporting reactor conversion analysis and overseeing licensing submittals leading to conversions of domestic reactors to LEU fuel. For the FQ effort, FQ (INL) worked in collaboration with RC (Argonne) and ORNL to develop the plan for the uranium silicide fuel qualification for HFIR.The resulting HFIR Fuel Qualification Plan provides the general approach for the USHPRR team to move the selected uranium silicide fuel design for HFIR conversion through qualification. Authorization and use in HFIR will be approved through the DOE’s Office of Science. Uranium silicide fuel was previously qualified in NUREG-1313 at an approximate maximum heat flux of 1.4 MW/m2 and a maximum fuel section temperature of about 130°C. In addition to the different regulator process utilized by DOE, these upper limits will be exceeded in HFIR; therefore, further testing will be necessary to ensure the fuel can meet HFIR qualification requirements. The HFIR fuel loading may exceed 4.8 gU/cm3 which was determined in the NUREG-1313 safety evaluation to be acceptable for use in non-power NRC-regulated reactors provided there exist no other safety considerations. In addition, the uranium silicide fuel will need to be qualified in a HFIR-specific design. This plan includes the currently available information from the USHPRR Project Functions and Requirements document and expands these requirements to ensure that planned tests have traceable results providing evidence that the requirements have been met. Data collection methods are discussed as well as the process to show that the requirements have been met. This document is designed to provide a pathway for researchers to obtain data necessary and at the appropriate quality level for HFIR fuel qualification.

Shokes, Tamara↗

Advancing Electric System Resilience with Distributed Energy Resources: A Review of State Policies

Severe weather, cyber-attacks, geomagnetic disturbances, and other hazards and threats have caused or have the potential to cause substantial levels of damage to electricity infrastructure and the global economy. Growth in distributed energy resources (DERs) and increasing attention to the resilience of the electric grid - its ability to "anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover" from disruptions, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC, 2018) - have created an opportunity for energy stakeholders to develop and deploy "resilient DERs," resources in the distribution grid that improve the ability of a customer, critical facility, and/or the distribution system in general to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from disruptions. This paper explores how existing state regulations intersect with resilience and highlights opportunities where state regulators can employ DERs to advance resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for cyber-physical energy systems in smart commercial buildings

In recent years, there has been a growing trend toward the development of smart buildings that rely on cyber-physical systems (CPS) to optimize occupant comfort, safety, and energy efficiency. To ensure the reliable and efficient operation of CPS with designed control strategies, it is important to evaluate their performance under various scenarios before deploying them in the real world. This is where a Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed designed for studying sensor and control-related studies in smart buildings can be highly valuable. With the growing threat of cyber-attacks and physical faults targeting smart buildings, it is essential to ensure the security of building operations. A HIL testbed can emulate cyber-attack and physical fault scenarios, allowing researchers to develop and test threat detection and mitigation algorithms. This enables researchers to identify potential issues and optimize the algorithms in a safe and controlled environment before they are deployed in real-world settings, reducing the risk of failures that can negatively impact occupant comfort, safety, and energy efficiency. Therefore, this paper developed a HIL testbed designed for cyber-physical energy systems (e.g. buildings automation system (BAS)) in smart commercial buildings. The HIL testbed is comprised of a real-time building and Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) emulator using Modelica-based dynamic models, a set of BAS controllers, and a BAS computer server. The data generation capability of the HIL testbed is demonstrated by tracking normal and faulty operating data in the BAS, as well as monitoring detailed network traffic in the local BAS network. Here, this study further demonstrates the HIL testbed’s capability by conducting case studies on real-time physical fault and cyber-attack experiments using a Department of Energy (DOE) prototype commercial building. It is anticipated that the fully functional HIL testbed will be utilized for a variety of sensor and control-related studies, including but not limited to testing, developing, validating of different HVAC control strategies, fault detection & diagnosis, energy monitoring and analysis, cyber security study, etc.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Finite Element Estimation of Meteorite Structural Properties

The goal of the project titled Asteroid Threat Assessment at NASA Ames Research Center is to develop risk assessment tools. The expertise in atmospheric entry in the Entry Systems and Technology Division is being used to describe the complex physics of meteor breakup in the atmosphere. The breakup of a meteor is dependent on its structural properties, including homogeneity of the material. The present work describes an 11-week effort in which a literature survey was carried for structural properties of meteoritic material. In addition, the effect of scale on homogeneity isotropy was studied using a Monte Carlo approach in Nastran. The properties were then in a static structural response simulation of an irregularly-shape meteor (138-scale version of Asteroid Itokawa). Finally, an early plan was developed for doctoral research work at Georgia Tech. in the structural failure fragmentation of meteors.

Structural Properties↗

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lead tolerance and bioremoval by four strains of green algae from Nigerian fish ponds

Heavy metals from industry pose threats to human and environmental health. Microalgae are prime candidates to remove heavy metals from water and soil due to their metal-binding affinities, high growth rates, and contamination tolerance. Strain selection and composition of resulting contaminated biomass must be considered for downstream processing. In this study, we assessed the ability of four microalgae strains (Chlorophyceae) that were isolated from contaminated Nigerian fish ponds to take up dissolved lead at environmentally relevant concentrations (<0.05 mg L -1 – WHO standard). In a microplate assay, all strains grew in the presence of lead, tolerating concentrations up to 60 ppm, though the addition of dissolved lead affected the growth of the four strains. In a photobioreactor assay, all strains demonstrated the ability to take up dissolved lead, with removal efficiencies ranging from 86 to 93%. The concentrations of lead in contaminated biomass, removal efficiencies, and bioconcentration factors were greatest in one of the isolates Chlorella sp. MOW 12. Our results reinforce the fact that live microalgae have a greater biosorption capacity. Lead recovery from freeze-dried biomass using five different reagents showed that a 0.1 M hydrochloric acid solution was the most effective, with 83.4% recovery. We also showed that presence of lead in the culture medium resulted in an increase in the quantity of protein in the biomass. Elemental analysis of lead-bound biomass showed an increase in elements including boron and copper and a decrease in cobalt and sodium. Synergystic and antagonystic effect in uptake of other elements was strain specific, suggesting the possibility of tailored wastewater treatments depending on specific requirements.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Urban Deployment Model: A Toolset for the Simulation and Performance Characterization of Radiation Detector Deployments in Urban Environments

Static and mobile radiation detectors can be deployed in urban environments for a range of nuclear security applications, including radiological source search-and-tracking scenarios. Modeling detector performance for such applications is challenging, as it does not depend solely on the detector capabilities themselves. Many factors must be taken into consideration, including specific source and background signatures, the topology and constraints of the deployment environment, the presence of nuisance sources, and whether detectors are mobile or static. When considering the simultaneous deployment of multiple, heterogeneous detectors, assessment of the system-wide performance requires the simulation of the individual detectors, and a system-level analysis of the detection performance. In radiological source search-and-tracking scenarios, performance is mostly dominated by the probability of encounter, which depends on the specifics of a given deployment, e.g., static vs. mobile detectors or a combination of both modalities, the number of detectors deployed, the dynamic vs. static setting of false alarm rates, and individual vs. networked operation. The Urban Deployment Model (UDM) toolset was specifically developed to cover the gap in the available generic frameworks for the simulation of radiation detector deployments at city scales. UDM provides a unified and modular framework to support the simulation and performance characterization of heterogeneous detector deployments in urban environments. This paper presents the key components along the UDM workflow.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Large Solar-Rejection Filter

NASA utilized Image Intensified Video Cameras for ATV data acquisition from a jet flying at 12.8 km. Afterwards the video was digitized and then analyzed with a modified commercial software package, Image Systems Trackeye. Astrometric results were limited by saturation, plate scale, and imposed linear plate solution based on field reference stars. Time-dependent fragment angular trajectories, velocities, accelerations, and luminosities were derived in each video segment. It was evident that individual fragments behave differently. Photometric accuracy was insufficient to confidently assess correlations between luminosity and fragment spatial behavior (velocity, deceleration). Use of high resolution digital video cameras in future should remedy this shortcoming. A scenically accurate description of matter interpreted as a substance made up of corpuscular constituents was established during the course of the 19th century. In this description, atoms--the building blocks of the matter--form molecules. The properties of the molecules were described by chemistry or thermodynamics depending on what characteristics of the matter were investigated. In both theories, the molecules can dissociate to atoms when the kinetic energies of the atoms exceed the strength of the chemical bonds. The number of atoms is always preserved in a closed system. This is not true, however, when the matter takes up much higher energies at relativistic scales. New particles can be produced at the expense of the kinetic energy. The number of particles is no longer preserved. There are other conserved quantities, however, these quantities, the charge, baryon number, lepton number, are associated with particles that are considered elementary today. The properties and behavior of these elementary particles is the subject of Particle Physics or High Energy Physics. Practice Page: A crewmember touching a positively charged surface was thought to be galvanically isolated from the vehicle ground analogous to a bird on a high voltage power wire. Recent analysis confirms that positive floating potentials, ionospheric currents to the EVA suit, can be hazardous. The analysis is wrong in that the ionospheric plasma itself can close the circuit. Parametric analysis of very low voltage exposures (2 to 15 volts) could cause pain and/or involuntary muscle tetani or spinal cord shock. NASA worked with the Naval Health Research Center Detachment Directed Energy Bioeffects Laboratory to examine the affects electrical hazards could have on extravehicular activity using two models. The results of the two computational models were combined to predict areas of the body in which neurons of different diameters would be excited. They predicted that physiologically active current could be conducted across the crew member causing catastrophic hazards. Future work to analyze additional current paths was proposed. The FUSE spectrum of BB Dor, observed in a high state, is modeled with an accretion disk with a very low inclination (possibly lower than 10 degrees). Assuming an average WD mass of 0.8 solar mass leads to a distance of the order of approximately 650pc, consistent with the extremely low galactic reddening in its direction, and a mass accretion rate of 10 (exp -9) solar mass a year. The spectrum presents some broad and deep silicon and sulfur absorption lines, indicating that these elements are over-abundant: silicon is 3 times solar, and sulfur is 20 times solar. The FUSE spectrum of BB Dor, observed in a high state, is modeled with an accretion disk with a very low inclination (possibly lower than 10 degrees). Assuming an average WD mass of 0.8 solar mass leads to a distance of the order of approximately 650pc, consistent with the extremely low galactic reddening in its direction, and a mass accretion rate of 10 (exp -9) solar mass a year. The spectrum presents some broad and deep silicon and sulfur absorption lines, indicating that these elements are over-abundant: silicon is times solar, and sulfur is 20 times solar. From its previously observed optical emission lines, P831-57 (WD 0334 6400 or Ret 1 in A Catalog and Atlas of Cataclysmic Variables: Living Edition) has been suspected to contain an accretion disk associated with a companion star in orbit around a subdwarf star with a temperature T is greater than 21,000K. P831-57 has therefore been classified as a nova-like. However, our present observations show it to be a DA + dMe binary. The analysis of its Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) spectrum (continuum and lines) reveal an average mass white dwarf (Log(g) approximately equals 7.8 plus or minus 0.1)with a temperature T approximately equals 37,000 plus or minus 500K, an extremely low projected rotational velocity, and a distance of about 115 plus or minus 5pc. The photosphere contains C, N, Si, and S (at about 1% of solar abundances). The dMe star is seen as a flux excess in near-infrared photometry and appears to show occasional flaring of about one magnitude as seen in the Harvard plates. There is no evidence of periodic variability in the spectroscopic or photometric data. We find no evidence of a an accretion disk, instead we find evidence of wind accretion as the stellar carbon abundance (N(C)/N(H) = 2.5 x 10 (exp -6) is about ten times larger than predicted by radiative levitation for such a gravity and temperature. The power needs and solutions for the space exploration and lunar mobility program are discussed. Long term missions in space and on the lunar surface require high energy batteries. Rechargeable batteries for mobility systems and portable utility pallet are needed for successful exploration missions. Nanomaterial usage increases the energy density of the cells apart from increasing the power density. The symptoms and threats from acute mountain sickness (AMS) are discussed. The underlying assumptions concerning spacecraft atmosphere mean there is a potential risk to astronauts. The baseline worst case scenario is about 25% based on direct ascent to 8.0 psia with 32% O2. The practical mitigation approach is a staged depressurization scheme. Due to the uncertainty about potential AMS risk the flight surgeon should prepare, focused research should proceed, and current analytical efforts should continue. This slide presentation reviews the threat astronauts face from acute mountain sickness (AMS). The incidence of AMS is highly variable and the risk to astronauts is unclear. However, the potential risk is higher than current EAAs suggest and precautions should be implemented. Due to the uncertain nature of the risk flight surgeons should prepare, and focused research should proceed. Quasiparticle tunneling can be understood at low temperatures using a non-equilibrium kinetic theory. Low-temperature tunneling can be suppressed using existing techniques: island-lead gap engineering, lead cooling with SIN junctions, and quasiparticle traps. The slide presentation reviews the science goals and mission planning for the proposed Jupiter System Observer (JSO). The spacecraft would accommodate 9 instruments making the instrument payload more capable than any previously flown to Jupiter. The would-be mission includes study programs for Jupiter's satellites, interior, magnetosphere and atmosphere. The power needs and solutions for the space exploration and lunar mobility program are discussed. Long term missions in space and on the lunar surface require high energy batteries. Rechargeable batteries for mobility systems and portable utility pallet are needed for successful exploration missions. Nanomaterial usage increases the energy density of the cells apart from increasing the power density. This slide presentation reviews the power requirements for the space exploration and the lunar surface mobility programs. It includes information about the specifications for high energy batteries and the power requirements for lunar rovers,

Roberts, William↗

Face Sheet/Core Disbond Growth in Honeycomb Sandwich Panels Subjected to Ground-Air-Ground Pressurization and In-Plane Loading

Typical damage modes in light honeycomb sandwich structures include face sheet/core disbonding and core fracture, both of which can pose a threat to the structural integrity of a component. These damage modes are of particular interest to aviation certification authorities since several in-service occurrences, such as rudder structural failure and other control surface malfunctions, have been attributed to face sheet/core disbonding. Extensive studies have shown that face sheet/core disbonding and core fracture can lead to damage propagation caused by internal pressure changes in the core. The increasing use of composite sandwich construction in aircraft applications makes it vitally important to understand the effect of ground-air-ground (GAG) cycles and conditions such as maneuver and gust loads on face sheet/core disbonding. The objective of the present study was to use a fracture mechanics based approach developed earlier to evaluate the loading at the disbond front caused by ground-air-ground pressurization and in-plane loading. A honeycomb sandwich panel containing a circular disbond at one face sheet/core interface was modeled with three-dimensional (3D) solid finite elements. The disbond was modeled as a discrete discontinuity and the strain energy release rate along the disbond front was computed using the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT). Special attention was paid to the pressure-deformation coupling which can decrease the pressure load within the disbonded sandwich section significantly when the structure is highly deformed. The commercial finite element analysis software, Abaqus/Standard, was used for the analyses. The recursive pressure-deformation coupling problem was solved by representing the entrapped air in the honeycomb cells as filled cavities in Abaqus/Standard. The results show that disbond size, face sheet thickness and core thickness are important parameters that determine crack tip loading at the disbond front. Further, the pressure-deformation coupling was found to have an important load decreasing effect [6]. In this paper, a detailed problem description is provided first. Second, the analysis methodology is presented. The fracture mechanics approach used is described and the specifics of the finite element model, including the fluid-filled cavities, are introduced. Third, the initial model verification and validation are discussed. Fourth, the findings from a closely related earlier study [6] are summarized. These findings provided the basis for the current investigation. Fifth, an aircraft ascent scenario from 0 to 12192 m (0 to 40000 ft) is considered and the resulting crack tip loading at the disbond front is determined. In-plane loading to simulate maneuvers and gust conditions are also considered. Sixth, the results are shown for a curved panel, which was used to simulate potential fuselage applications. Finally, a brief summary of observations is presented and recommendations for improvement are provided.

Chen, Zhi M.↗

Bio‐Inspired Cascade Photocatalysis on Fe Single‐Atom Carbon Nitride Upcycles Plastic Wastes for Effective Acetic Acid Production

Plastic imposes a critical threat to the environment, ecosystems, and human health because of the low utilization efficiency of plastics. Here, we demonstrate a sustainable, highly efficient cascade photocatalysis for upcycle plastics to value-added acetic acid using Fe single-atom catalysts (Fe@C 3 N 4 SAC) at ambient conditions. Inspired by Phanerochaete chrysosporium microbial, the defective Fe@C 3 N 4 SAC acts as a bifunctional cascade photocatalyst for both Fenton-like and CO 2 reduction reactions. During the reaction, hydroxyl radicals (*OH) form and subsequently oxidize plastics into CO 2 intermediates. These CO 2 intermediates are then photo-reduced to CH 3 COOH on the same catalyst via cascade photocatalysis. The mechanism is confirmed by in situ multimodal microscopy and spectroscopies, with density functional theory calculations. A state-of-art CH 3 COOH yield of 63.8 mg h −1 gcat −1 from PVC, 12.7 mg h −1 gcat −1 from PE, 5.4 mg h −1 gcat −1 from PET, and 5.3 mg h −1 gcat −1 from PP are directly obtained under AM1.5G solar irradiation and further validated under real sunlight (≈0.6 sun), achieving 5.6 mg h −1 gcat −1 from PET, using low-cost Fe@C 3 N 4 SAC in a sealed reactor by enhancing the photon transport and utilization efficiency. The techno-economic analysis shows it is promising to practically mitigate plastic based on broader social welfare assessments.

cascade photocatalysis↗

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Emergency department visits in California associated with wildfire PM 2.5 : differing risk across individuals and communities

The threats to human health from wildfires and wildfire smoke (WFS) in the United States (US) are increasing due to continued climate change. A growing body of literature has documented important adverse health effects of WFS exposure, but there is insufficient evidence regarding how risk related to WFS exposure varies across individual or community level characteristics. To address this evidence gap, we utilized a large nationwide database of healthcare utilization claims for emergency department (ED) visits in California across multiple wildfire seasons (May through November, 2012–2019) and quantified the health impacts of fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution attributable to WFS, overall and among subgroups of the population. We aggregated daily counts of ED visits to the level of the Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) and used a time-stratified case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the association between WFS and relative risk of ED visits. We further assessed how the association with WFS varied across subgroups defined by age, race, social vulnerability, and residential air conditioning (AC) prevalence. Over a 7 day period, PM 2.5 from WFS was associated with elevated risk of ED visits for all causes (1.04% (0.32%, 1.71%)), non-accidental causes (2.93% (2.16%, 3.70%)), and respiratory disease (15.17% (12.86%, 17.52%)), but not with ED visits for cardiovascular diseases (1.06% (–1.88%, 4.08%)). Analysis across subgroups revealed potential differences in susceptibility by age, race, and AC prevalence, but not across subgroups defined by ZCTA-level Social Vulnerability Index scores. These results suggest that PM 2.5 from WFS is associated with higher rates of all cause, non-accidental, and respiratory ED visits with important heterogeneity across certain subgroups. Notably, lower availability of residential AC was associated with higher health risks related to wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming

Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence‐based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science‐based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cooperative Collision Avoidance Step 1 - Technology Demonstration Flight Test Report. Revision 1

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Access 5 Project Office sponsored a cooperative collision avoidance flight demonstration program for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). This flight test was accomplished between September 21st and September 27th 2005 from the Mojave Airport, Mojave, California. The objective of these flights was to collect data for the Access 5 Cooperative Collision Avoidance (CCA) Work Package simulation effort, i.e., to gather data under select conditions to allow validation of the CCA simulation. Subsequent simulation to be verified were: Demonstrate the ability to detect cooperative traffic and provide situational awareness to the ROA pilot; Demonstrate the ability to track the detected cooperative traffic and provide position information to the ROA pilot; Demonstrate the ability to determine collision potential with detected cooperative traffic and provide notification to the ROA pilot; Demonstrate that the CCA subsystem provides information in sufficient time for the ROA pilot to initiate an evasive maneuver to avoid collision; Demonstrate an evasive maneuver that avoids collision with the threat aircraft; and lastly, Demonstrate the ability to assess the adequacy of the maneuver and determine that the collision potential has been avoided. The Scaled Composites, LLC Proteus Optionally Piloted Vehicle (OPV) was chosen as the test platform. Proteus was manned by two on-board pilots but was also capable of being controlled from an Air Vehicle Control Station (AVCS) located on the ground. For this demonstration, Proteus was equipped with cooperative collision sensors and the required hardware and software to place the data on the downlink. Prior to the flight phase, a detailed set of flight test scenarios were developed to address the flight test objectives. Two cooperative collision avoidance sensors were utilized for detecting aircraft in the evaluation: Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System-II (TCAS-II) and Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B). A single intruder aircraft was used during all the flight testing, a NASA Gulfstream III (G-III). During the course of the testing, six geometrically different near-collision scenarios were evaluated. These six scenarios were each tested using various combinations of sensors and collision avoidance software. Of the 54 planned test points 49 were accomplished successfully. Proteus flew a total of 21.5 hours during the testing and the G-III flew 19.8 hours. The testing fully achieved all flight test objectives. The Flight IPT performed an analysis to determine the accuracy of the simulation model used to predict the location of the host aircraft downstream during an avoidance maneuver. The data collected by this flight program was delivered to the Access 5 Cooperative Collision Avoidance (CCA) Work Package Team who was responsible for reporting on their analysis of this flight data.

Trongale, Nicholas A.↗

Real-World Cyber Security Demonstration for Networked Electric Drives

In this article, we present the design and implementation of a cyber-physical security testbed for networked electric drive systems, aimed at conducting real-world security demonstrations. To our knowledge, this is one of the first security testbeds for networked electric drives, seamlessly integrating the domains of power electronics and computer science, and cybersecurity. By doing so, the testbed offers a comprehensive platform to explore and understand the intricate and often complex interactions between cyber and physical systems. The core of our testbed consists of four electric machine drives, meticulously configured to emulate small-scale but realistic information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) networks. This setup both provides a controlled environment for simulating a wide array of cyber-attacks, and mirrors potential real-world attack scenarios with a high degree of fidelity. The testbed serves as an invaluable resource for the study of cyber-physical security, offering a practical and dynamic platform for testing and validating cybersecurity measures in the context of networked electric drive systems. As a concrete example of the testbed's capabilities, we have developed and implemented a Python-based script designed to execute step-stone attacks over a wireless local area network (WLAN). This script leverages a sequence of target IP addresses, simulating a real-world attack vector that could be exploited by adversaries. To counteract such threats, we demonstrate the efficacy of our developed cyber-attack detection algorithms, which are integral to our testbed's security framework. Furthermore, the testbed incorporates a real-time visualization system using InfluxDB and Grafana, providing a dynamic and interactive representation of networked electric drives and their associated security monitoring mechanisms. This visualization component not only enhances the testbed's usability but also offers insightful, real-time data for researchers and practitioners, thereby facilitating a deeper understanding of cyber-physical security dynamics in networked electric drive systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗