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At least 595 records · Page 33

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic simulation of quantum circuits using a deep-learning architecture

The fundamental question of how to best simulate quantum systems using conventional computational resources lies at the forefront of condensed matter and quantum computation. It impacts both our understanding of quantum materials and our ability to emulate quantum circuits. Here we present an exact formulation of quantum dynamics via factorized generalized measurements which maps quantum states to probability distributions with the advantage that local unitary dynamics and quantum channels map to local quasistochastic matrices. This representation provides a general framework for using state-of-the-art probabilistic models in machine learning for the simulation of quantum many-body dynamics. Using this framework, we have developed a practical algorithm to simulate quantum circuits using an attention network based on a powerful neural network ansatz responsible for the most recent breakthroughs in natural language processing. We demonstrate our approach by simulating circuits that build Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger and linear graph states of up to 60 qubits, as well as a variational quantum eigensolver circuit for preparing the ground state of the transverse field Ising model on several system sizes. Our methodology constitutes a modern machine learning approach to the simulation of quantum physics with applicability both to quantum circuits as well as other quantum many-body systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Understanding Adsorption and Reactions at Aqueous Oxide Interfaces with Neural Network Potential Molecular Dynamics

Chemical processes at metal oxide−water interfaces are of central importance in geochemistry, biology, and energy technologies. A better understanding of these processes would allow us to make a significant step toward optimizing and controlling them, which could in turn lead to broader impacts. Computational modeling is indispensable to accomplishing this task because complexity and disorder often make it difficult to extract atomistic information from experiments. Balancing computational cost and accuracy, simulation schemes based on efficient machine learning representations of the potential energy surface (PES) predicted by ab initio calculations have become increasingly popular over the past decade. In particular, several studies have demonstrated the ability of machine learning models to accurately reproduce the complex ab initio PESs of aqueous oxide interfaces, allowing simulations of systems and processes that are not accessible with ab initio methods. In this Account, we review our recent efforts to understand adsorption processes and reactions at aqueous oxide interfaces using deep potential molecular dynamics (DPMD), a simulation scheme employing deep neural networks (DNNs), which has proven to be quite successful in accurately describing many different systems in the condensed phase. After summarizing the DPMD methodology, we first review our work on the acid−base chemistry of oxide surfaces in contact with water, a fundamental characteristic that controls proton transfer and surface charge at the interface. We focus on the aqueous interface of rutile IrO 2 , an oxide material thus far considered the best catalyst for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). We show that this interface is characterized by a large fraction of dissociated water and a strong Brønsted acidity of the surface sites, in good agreement with the experimentally measured value of the point of zero proton charge. In our second example, we investigate how the adsorption of organic species from ambient air or water affects the structure and wettability of the aqueous interfaces of TiO 2 , a prototypical photocatalytic material. This is a question that is relevant to understanding the UV-induced hydrophilicity of TiO 2 surfaces, a property at the basis of self-cleaning windows and related applications. Specifically focusing on formic and acetic acids, the two most common atmospheric organic acids, our simulations reveal that these acids control the wettability of TiO 2 largely through acid−base chemistry at the interface rather than chemisorption on the oxide surface, a finding that could help improve the design of self-cleaning surfaces and photocatalytic devices. Finally, we review our recent study of methanol at TiO 2 −water interfaces, a system whose interest is largely motivated by the role of methanol in enhancing photocatalytic hydrogen evolution on TiO 2 . Our simulations provide mechanistic insights into the coupled roles of the organic adsorbate and water at the TiO 2 interface, with implications for how methanol enhances the activity of H 2 evolution.

adsorption↗

Microscale Colocalization of Cascade Enzymes Yields Activity Enhancement

Colocalization of cascade enzymes is broadly discussed as a phenomenon that can boost the cascade reaction throughput, although a direct experimental verification is often challenging. This is mainly due to difficulties in establishing proper size regimes and in the analytical quantification of colocalization effect with adequate experimental systems and simulations. In this study, by taking advantage of reversible DNA-directed colocalization of enzymes on microspheres, we established a cascade system that can be used to directly evaluate the colocalization effect with exactly the same experimental settings except for the state of enzyme dispersion. In the regime of highly dilute microspheres of particular sizes, the colocalized cascade shows enhanced activity compared with the freely diffusing cascade, as evidenced by a shortened lag phase in the time-course production. Reaction-diffusion modeling reveals that the enhancement can be ascribed to the initial accumulation of intermediate substrate around the colocalized enzymes and is found to be carrier-size-dependent. Further, this work demonstrates the dependence of the colocalization effect of enzyme cascades on an interplay of nano-and microscales, lending theoretical support to the rational design of highly efficient multienzyme catalysts.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx): 2. Evaluating Linear Kinematic Features in High-Resolution Sea Ice Simulations

Simulating sea ice drift and deformation in the Arctic Ocean is still a challenge because of the multiscale interaction of sea ice floes that compose the Arctic Sea ice cover. The Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) is a model intercomparison project of the Forum of Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS). In SIREx, skill metrics are designed to evaluate different recently suggested approaches for modeling linear kinematic features (LKFs) to provide guidance for modeling small-scale deformation. These LKFs are narrow bands of localized deformation that can be observed in satellite images and also form in high resolution sea ice simulations. In this contribution, spatial and temporal properties of LKFs are assessed in 36 simulations of state-of-the-art sea ice models and compared to deformation features derived from the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System. All simulations produce LKFs, but only very few models realistically simulate at least some statistics of LKF properties such as densities, lengths, or growth rates. All SIREx models overestimate the angle of fracture between conjugate pairs of LKFs and LKF lifetimes pointing to inaccurate model physics. The temporal and spatial resolution of a simulation and the spatial resolution of atmospheric boundary condition affect simulated LKFs as much as the model's sea ice rheology and numerics. Only in very high resolution simulations (≤2 km) the concentration and thickness anomalies along LKFs are large enough to affect air-ice-ocean interaction processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Model Reduction for Large-Scale Power Systems Using Wide-Area Measurements

To perform faster than the real-time dynamic simulation of large-scale power systems, it is necessary to reduce the simulated system size by using equivalents for surrounding areas of the study area, and existing dynamic model reduction approach could provide the needed structure of the reduced area. However, further parameter optimization is required to achieve the desired accuracy. In this paper, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) based approach is used to solve the above problem. Parameters for the individual dynamic elements in the reduced system are calibrated repeatedly until the wide-area measurements of the reduced model and the original model are very similar to each other with satisfactory accuracy. Results indicate that after optimization, the dynamic response of the reduced model matches better with that of the original one than using existing methods. Under both the generator-trip event and the bus-fault event, the reduced model has a higher frequency match and less power mismatch.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Engineering an effective three-spin Hamiltonian in trapped-ion systems for applications in quantum simulation

Trapped-ion quantum simulators, in analog and digital modes, are considered a primary candidate to achieve quantum advantage in quantum simulation and quantum computation. The underlying controlled ion–laser interactions induce all-to-all two-spin interactions via the collective modes of motion through Cirac–Zoller or Mølmer–Sørensen schemes, leading to effective two-spin Hamiltonians, as well as two-qubit entangling gates. In this work, the Mølmer–Sørensen scheme is extended to induce three-spin interactions via tailored first- and second-order spin–motion couplings. The scheme enables engineering single-, two-, and three-spin interactions, and can be tuned via an enhanced protocol to simulate purely three-spin dynamics. Analytical results for the effective evolution are presented, along with detailed numerical simulations of the full dynamics to support the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed scheme for near-term applications. With a focus on quantum simulation, the advantage of a direct analog implementation of three-spin dynamics is demonstrated via the example of matter-gauge interactions in the U(1) lattice gauge theory within the quantum link model. The mapping of degrees of freedom and strategies for scaling the three-spin scheme to larger systems, are detailed, along with a discussion of the expected outcome of the simulation of the quantum link model given realistic fidelities in the upcoming experiments. The applications of the three-spin scheme go beyond the lattice gauge theory example studied here and include studies of static and dynamical phase diagrams of strongly interacting condensed-matter systems modeled by two- and three-spin Hamiltonians.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

PHIL Interface Design for Use With a Voltage-Regulated Amplifier: Preprint

As inverter controls have become increasingly complex, power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) has emerged as a leading strategy to thoroughly assess the impact of proprietary inverter controls on a specific power system. The development of a PHIL test bed typically involves the desired inverter, a power amplifier, and a digital real-time simulator (DRTS) to control the simulated power system. As a result of PHIL nonidealities, a form of digital compensation within the DRTS is used, which is commonly referred to as a PHIL interface. The interface design for PHIL test beds has been previously examined in the literature, but many existing methods use older power amplifiers that do not contain internal voltage regulation. These existing interface methods are based around a voltage regulator within the DRTS rather than one preexisting in hardware. In this study, a three-step approach of PHIL interface development for modern power amplifiers with built-in voltage regulation is introduced and validated in hardware with a single 30-kW grid-following inverter.

DRTS↗

Analog Quantum Simulation of the Dynamics of Open Quantum Systems with Quantum Dots and Microelectronic Circuits

We introduce a general setup for the analog quantum simulation of the dynamics of open quantum systems based on semiconductor quantum dots electrically connected to a chain of quantum RLC electronic circuits. The dots are chosen to be in the regime of spin-charge hybridization to enhance their sensitivity to the RLC circuits while mitigating the detrimental effects of unwanted noise. In this context, we establish an experimentally realizable map between the hybrid system and a qubit coupled to thermal harmonic environments of arbitrary complexity that enables the analog quantum simulation of open quantum systems. We assess the utility of the simulator by numerically exact emulations that indicate that the experimental setup can faithfully mimic the intended target even in the presence of its natural inherent noise. We further provide a detailed analysis of the physical requirements on the quantum dots and the RLC circuits needed to experimentally realize this proposal that indicates that the simulator can be created with existing technology. The approach can exactly capture the effects of highly structured non-Markovian quantum environments typical of photosynthesis and chemical dynamics, and offer clear potential advantages over conventional and even quantum computation. The proposal opens a general path for effective quantum dynamics simulations based on semiconductor quantum dots.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Impact of particle arrays on phase separation composition patterns

We examine the symmetry-breaking effect of fixed constellations of particles on the surface-directed spinodal decomposition of binary blends in the presence of particles whose surfaces have a preferential affinity for one of the components. Our phase-field simulations indicate that the phase separation morphology in the presence of particle arrays can be tuned to have a continuous, droplet, lamellar, or hybrid morphology depending on the interparticle spacing, blend composition, and time. In particular, when the interparticle spacing is large compared to the spinodal wavelength, a transient target pattern composed of alternate rings of preferred and non-preferred phases emerges at early times, tending to adopt the symmetry of the particle configuration. We reveal that such target patterns stabilize for certain characteristic length, time, and composition scales characteristic of the pure phase-separating mixture. To illustrate the general range of phenomena exhibited by mixture-particle systems, we simulate the effects of single-particle, multi-particle, and cluster–particle systems having multiple geometrical configurations of the particle characteristic of pattern substrates on phase separation. Our simulations show that tailoring the particle configuration, or substrate pattern configuration, a relative fluid-particle composition should allow the desirable control of the phase separation morphology as in block copolymer materials, but where the scales accessible to this approach of organizing phase-separated fluids usually are significantly larger. Limited experiments confirm the trends observed in our simulations, which should provide some guidance in engineering patterned blend and other mixtures of technological interest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Abstract Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

Liu, Xue [Department of Oceanography Texas A&amp,M↗

A Review on Simulation Models of Cascading Failures in Power Systems

Among various power system disturbances, cascading failures are considered the most serious and extreme threats to grid operations, potentially leading to significant stability issues or even widespread power blackouts. Simulating power systems' behaviors during cascading failures is of great importance to comprehend how failures originate and propagate, as well as to develop effective preventive and mitigative control strategies. The intricate mechanism of cascading failures, characterized by multi-timescale dynamics, presents exceptional challenges for their simulations. This paper provides a comprehensive review of simulation models for cascading failures, providing a systematic categorization and a comparison of these models. The challenges and potential research directions for the future are also discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Isolating the effect of biomass burning aerosol emissions on 20th century hydroclimate in South America and Southeast Asia

Abstract Biomass burning is a significant source of aerosol emissions in some regions and has a considerable impact on regional climate. Earth system model simulations indicate that increased biomass burning aerosol emissions contributed to statistically significant decreases in tropical precipitation over the 20th century. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LENS) experiment to evaluate the mechanisms by which biomass burning aerosol contributed to decreased tropical precipitation, with a focus on South America and Southeast Asia. We analyze the all-but-one forcing simulations in which biomass burning aerosol emissions are held constant while other forcings (e.g., greenhouse gas concentrations) vary throughout the 20th century. This allows us to isolate the influence of biomass burning aerosol on processes that contribute to decreasing precipitation, including cloud microphysics, the radiative effects of absorbing aerosol particles, and alterations in regional circulation. We also show that the 20th century reduction in precipitation identified in the CESM1-LENS historical and biomass burning experiments is consistent across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with interactive aerosol schemes and the CESM2 single-forcing experiment. Our results demonstrate that higher concentrations of biomass burning aerosol increases the quantity of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplets, limiting cloud droplet size and precipitation formation. Additionally, absorbing aerosols (e.g., black carbon) contribute to a warmer cloud layer, which promotes cloud evaporation, increases atmospheric stability, and alters regional circulation patterns. Corresponding convectively coupled circulation responses, particularly over the tropical Andes, contribute to further reducing the flow of moisture and moisture convergence over tropical land. These results elucidate the processes that affect the water cycle in regions prone to biomass burning and inform our understanding of how future changes in aerosol emissions may impact tropical precipitation over the 21st century.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Structural Analysis of the US ITER ECH Transmission Line System

The electron cyclotron heating (ECH) and current drive system is one of the main plasma heating systems for ITER. It uses high-power microwave beams with the power deposition location steerable across the plasma cross section. Microwave power is conveyed via transmission lines (TLs) that run from the gyrotrons in the radio frequency building through the assembly hall and tokamak building to the ECH launchers within the tokamak vacuum vessel. The ECH system includes a vast array of interconnected TL waveguides, in-line components, and support structures.Finite element (FE) modeling provides an essential means of simulating the system, applying loads and determining deflections, rotations, forces, moments, and stresses in order to evaluate various structural and microwave transmission performance metrics. A representative FE model of the overall ECH TL system is developed in ANSYS®. This top-level model defines the centerline of the waveguide system. Waveguide segments are represented by line elements (beams and pipes) with equivalent section properties, and support structures are represented by boundary conditions. A systematic approach is used to model each ECH component with lumped masses and structurally equivalent stiffness matrices or ANSYS superelements.The top-level TL FE model is used to evaluate the various loads (thermal, vacuum, seismic, etc.) and operating scenarios. The top-level model directly calculates stresses in the straight aluminum waveguide segments. The model provides the forces and moments acting on the in-line components for detailed submodel assessments. Displacement results from the top-level analysis feed into a separate microwave performance model to help determine operational efficiency. All TL performance and thermal-structural requirements are met, as specified by the applicable codes and standards, and successfully documented in numerous technical reports and demonstrated at the final design review.

Shanmugasundaram, Aravind↗

Feasibility of a Novel Density Functional Method Outside the Kohn-Sham Framework for Modeling Global Potential Energy Surfaces of Molecular Chemical Reactions (Final Technical Report)

The project aimed towards the construction of computational methods capable of modeling the global potential energy surface (PES) of small molecules, molecular ions, and radicals — including the parts of the PES which correspond to chemical reactions, and the reaction paths connecting reactants, intermediates, and reaction products. This goal may seem humble at first glance, but for chemical systems with more than about six atoms in total, at the time the project was proposed, there were no established theoretical methods capable of simulating such systems reliably, not even for small molecules in the gas phase which are electronically benign. This restriction severely hampers our ability to model and control chemical processes under harsh conditions. With the goal of constructing a method capable of modeling such chemical systems, we proposed to pursue a novel approach towards a Multi-Configuration (MC) DFT outside the traditional frameworks of Kohn-Sham theory and other methods of coupling wave function theory with DFT. Rather than being a complete active space (CAS) method, the proposed DOCI-DFT would employ a special restricted form of the active space wave function, called Doubly-Occupied CI (DOCI)—this wave function form is sufficient to describe not only heterolytic, but also homolytic bond dissociation processes at the zeroth order (i.e., as active space wave function). There are no other standard mean field methods which can do so. In the original proposal, we also outlined strong formal and practical arguments speaking for this method. The project proposal was accepted by the Department of Energy and provided two years of seed funding for one graduate student, as well as two years of two weeks PI summer-salary for the PI. However, ultimately the project could not be effectively pursued due to severe interferences outside the context scientific problems and was cancelled. Apart from two weeks of PI salary (and associated fringe & overhead costs issues by the performing institution), no costs were charged against the award, with the entire rest of funding returned to the Department of Energy. This report reiterates the primary background information regarding the project, its original goals, and outlines the preliminary work performed during the two weeks of DOE funding charged.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reducing Long‐Standing Surface Ozone Overestimation in Earth System Modeling by High‐Resolution Simulation and Dry Deposition Improvement

The overestimation of surface ozone concentration in low‐resolution global atmospheric chemistry and climate models has been a long‐standing issue. We first update the ozone dry deposition scheme in both high‐ (0.25°) and low‐resolution (1°) Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.3 runs, by adding the effects of leaf area index and correcting the sunlit and shaded fractions of stomatal resistances. With this update, 5‐year‐long summer simulations (2015–2019) using the low‐resolution CESM still exhibit substantial ozone overestimation (by 6.0–16.2 ppbv) over the U.S., Europe, eastern China, and ozone pollution hotspots. The ozone dry deposition scheme is further improved by adjusting the leaf cuticle conductance, reducing the mean ozone bias by 19%, and increasing the model resolution further reduces the ozone overestimation by 43%. We elucidate the mechanism by which model grid spacing influences simulated ozone, revealing distinctive pathways in urban versus rural areas. In rural areas, grid spacing mainly affects daytime ozone levels, where additional NO x emissions from nearby urban areas result in an ozone boost and overestimation in low‐resolution simulations. In contrast, over urban areas, daytime ozone overestimation follows a similar mechanism due to the influence of volatile organic compounds from surrounding rural areas. However, nighttime ozone overestimation is closely linked to weakened NO titration owing to the redistribution of urban NO x to rural areas. Additionally, stratosphere‐troposphere exchange may also contribute to reducing ozone bias in high‐resolution simulations, warranting further investigation. This optimized high‐resolution CESM may enhance understanding of ozone formation mechanisms, sources, and changes in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Microsimulation Process for Energy Impact Evaluation of Connected and Automated Vehicles

In this paper, the authors present a microsimulation-based methodological approach for evaluating the energy impact of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). They use an open-source micro-simulator, SUMO, and provide a way to set up a simulation environment that emulates real-world traffic dynamics. They also employ the Intelligent Driver Model to represent human drivers and calibrate its driving behavior using real-world traffic data and driving statistics. The authors conduct extensive simulation studies considering different penetration rates of CAVs, different car-following models, and varying car-following model parameters. Using the state-of-the-art Future Automotive System Technology Simulator (FASTSim), they estimate the fuel economy of each vehicle and analyze the energy impact of the given CAV implementation. Finally, the authors analyze the possible factors affecting the simulation results, and also discuss limitations and future work.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Power Grid Simulation Testbed for Transactive Energy Management Systems

To effectively engage demand-side and distributed energy resources (DERs) for dynamically maintaining the electric power balance, the challenges of controlling and coordinating building equipment and DERs on a large scale must be overcome. Although several control techniques have been proposed in the literature, a significant obstacle to applying these techniques in practice is having access to an effective testing platform. Performing tests at scale using real equipment is impractical, so simulation offers the only viable route to developmental testing at scales of practical interest. Existing power-grid testbeds are unable to model individual residential end-use devices for developing detailed control formulations for responsive loads and DERs. Furthermore, they cannot simulate the control and communications at subminute timescales. To address these issues, this paper presents a novel power-grid simulation testbed for transactive energy management systems. Detailed models of primary home appliances (e.g., heating and cooling systems, water heaters, photovoltaic panels, energy storage systems) are provided to simulate realistic load behaviors in response to environmental parameters and control commands. The proposed testbed incorporates software as it will be deployed, and enables deployable software to interact with various building equipment models for end-to-end performance evaluation at scale.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗