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DOE OSTI2025

Improving tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts with satellite measurements of sea surface salinity and calibrated machine learning

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC intensification is salinity, which is important for density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under a strengthening hurricane. To investigate the impact and efficacy of using salinity information in state-of-the-art forecasting, we use a statistical model consisting of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. For salinity data, we use satellite measurements of pre-storm sea surface salinity (SSS) as a proxy for the salinity stratification. We train and test the model on various ocean basins, including the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and western North Pacific. A calibrator is trained on top of the ML models to correct and enhance probability forecasts. The calibrator significantly improves probability forecasts relative to recent works. The ML model performance is improved with the addition of SSS in the Eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and the Caribbean subregion of the North Atlantic, and the overall model performance is better than previous studies. SSS decreases model skill for a model trained on the full Atlantic basin. In the Indian Ocean, SSS is also notably correlated with RI occurrence, but the TC samples are not sufficient to train ML models.

hurricane↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantal diffusion approach for multinucleon transfer processes in the 58,64 Ni + 208 Pb reactions: Toward the production of unknown neutron-rich nuclei

In recent years, substantial efforts have been made for the study of multinucleon transfer reactions at energies around the Coulomb barrier both experimentally and theoretically, aiming at the production of unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei. It is crucial to provide reliable theoretical predictions based on microscopic theories with sufficient predictive power. Purpose: This article aims to clarify the applicability of the quantal diffusion approach based on the stochastic mean-field (SMF) theory for multinucleon transfer processes. Isotope production cross sections are evaluated for the reactions of 64 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 268 MeV and 58 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 270 MeV and are compared with available experimental data. Methods: Three-dimensional time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) calculations are carried out for a range of initial orbital angular momenta with Skyrme SLy4d functional. Quantal diffusion equations, derived based on the SMF theory, for variances and covariance of neutron and proton numbers of reaction products are solved, with microscopic drift and diffusion coefficients obtained from time evolution of occupied single-particle orbitals in TDHF. Secondary de-excitation processes, both particle evaporation and fission, are simulated by a statistical compound-nucleus de-excitation model, gemini++. Dynamics of a fast isospin equilibration process followed by a slow drift toward the mass symmetry are commonly observed, as expected. Various reaction outcomes are evaluated, including average mass and charge numbers of reaction products, total kinetic energy loss (TKEL), scattering angle, contact time, and production cross sections for primary and secondary products. By comparing with the experimental data, we find that SMF and TDHF quantitatively reproduce experimental data for few-nucleon-transfer channels around the average values. In contrast, for many-nucleon-transfer channels, we find that the SMF approach provides much better description of the experimentally measured isotopic distributions. The results underline the importance of beyond-mean-field effects, especially one-body (mean-field) fluctuations and correlations, in describing multinucleon transfer processes. Moreover, through a combined analysis of SMF with a statistical model, gemini++, we find a significant contribution of transfer-induced fission, which is consistent with the experimental observation. In some cases, the SMF approach overestimates the isotopic width, requiring further improvements of the theoretical description. Possible ways to improve the description are discussed. The SMF approach is designed to describe the quantum many-body problem according to an ensemble of mean-field trajectories, taking into account part of many-body correlations in the description. As it requires feasible computational costs comparable to the ordinary TDHF approach, together with further model improvements, it will be a promising tool in the search for optimal reaction conditions to produce yet-unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei through the multinucleon transfer reaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Robust Medium-Voltage Distribution System State Estimation using Multi-Source Data

Due to the lack of sufficient online measurements for distribution system observability, pseudo-measurements from short-term load or distributed renewable energy resources (DERs) forecasting are used. However, the accuracy of them is low and thus significantly limits the performance of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). In this paper, a robust DSSE that integrates multi-source measurement data is proposed. Specifically, the historical low-voltage (LV) side smart meters are used to forecast load and DERs injections via the support vector machine (SVM) with optimally tuned parameters. By contrast, the online smart meters at LV side are utilized to derive equivalent power injections at the MV/LV transformers, yielding more accurate pseudo-measurements compared to the forecasted injections. Furthermore, to deal with bad data caused by communication loss, instrumental errors and cyber attacks, robust DSSE that relies on generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimation criterion is developed. The projection statistics are developed to adjust the weights of each measurement, leading to better balance between pseudo- and real-time measurements. Numerical results conducted on modified IEEE 33-bus system with DG integration demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

distribution system state estimation↗

NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Issues for Uncontrolled Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering objects to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper looks at a number of these theoretical assumptions, examining the mathematical basis for the hazard calculations, and outlining the conditions under which the simplifying assumptions hold. In addition, this paper will also outline some new tools for assessing ground hazard risk in useful ways. Also, this study is able to make use of a database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. By using data from objects that were in orbit more than 30 days before reentry, sufficient time is allowed for the orbital parameters to be randomized in the way the models are designed to compute. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth's equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and change the ground footprints. The measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects provide data that can be directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Occupant Protection Standards Development

Current National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) occupant protection standards and requirements are based on extrapolations of biodynamic models, which were based on human tests performed under pre-Space Shuttle human flight programs where the occupants were in different suit and seat configurations than is expected for the Multi Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and Commercial Crew programs. As a result, there is limited statistical validity to the occupant protection standards. Furthermore, the current standards and requirements have not been validated in relevant spaceflight suit, seat configurations or loading conditions. The objectives of this study were to develop new standards and requirements for occupant protection and rigorously validate these new standards with sub-injurious human testing. To accomplish these objectives we began by determining which critical injuries NASA would like to protect for. We then defined the anthropomorphic test device (ATD) and the associated injury metrics of interest. Finally, we conducted a literature review of available data for the Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint New Technology (THOR-NT) ATD to determine injury assessment reference values (IARV) to serve as a baseline for further development. To better understand NASA s environment, we propose conducting sub-injurious human testing in spaceflight seat and suit configurations with spaceflight dynamic loads, with a sufficiently high number of subjects to validate no injury during nominal landing loads. In addition to validate nominal loads, the THOR-NT ATD will be tested in the same conditions as the human volunteers, allowing correlation between human and ATD responses covering the Orion nominal landing environment and commercial vehicle expected nominal environments. All testing will be conducted without the suit and with the suit to ascertain the contribution of the suit to human and ATD responses. In addition to the testing campaign proposed, additional data analysis is proposed to mine existing human injury and response data from other sources, including military volunteer testing, automotive Crash Injury Research Engineering Network (CIREN), and IndyCar impact and injury data. These data sources can allow a better extrapolation of the ATD responses to off-nominal conditions above the nominal range that can safely be tested. These elements will be used to develop injury risk functions for each of the injury metrics measured from the ATD. These risk functions would serve as the basis for the NASA standards. Finally, we propose defining standard test methodology for evaluating future spacecraft designs against the IARVs, including developing a star-rating system to allow crew safety comparisons between vehicles.

Somers, Jeffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Breaking Wave Field Statistics With A Multi-Layer Model

The statistics of breaking wave fields are characterised within a novel multi-layer framework, which generalises the single-layer Saint-Venant system into a multi-layer and non-hydrostatic formulation of the Navier–Stokes equations. We simulate an ensemble of phase-resolved surface wave fields in physical space, where strong nonlinearities, including directional wave breaking and the subsequent highly rotational flow motion, are modelled, without surface overturning. We extract the kinematics of wave breaking by identifying breaking fronts and their speed, for freely evolving wave fields initialised with typical wind wave spectra. The Λ(c) distribution, defined as the length of breaking fronts (per unit area) moving with speed c to c + dc following Phillips (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 156, 1985, pp. 505–531), is reported for a broad range of conditions. We recover the Λ(c) ∝ c−6 scaling without wind forcing for sufficiently steep wave fields. A scaling of Λ(c) based solely on the root-mean-square slope and peak wave phase speed is shown to describe the modelled breaking distributions well. The modelled breaking distributions are in good agreement with field measurements and the proposed scaling can be applied successfully to the observational data sets. The present work paves the way for simulations of the turbulent upper ocean directly coupled to a realistic breaking wave dynamics, including Langmuir turbulence, and other sub-mesoscale processes.

Jiarong Wu↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explainable AI (XAI)-driven vibration sensing scheme for surface quality monitoring in a smart surface grinding process

Local Interpretable and Model-agnostic Explanation (LIME), an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach is adapted to identify the globally important time-frequency bands for predicting average surface roughness (Ra) in a smart grinding process. The smart grinding setup consisted of a Supertech CNC precision surface grinding machine, instrumented with a Dytran piezoelectric accelerometer attached to the tailstock quill along the tangential direction (Y-axis). For every grinding pass, vibration signatures were captured, and the ground truth surface roughness values were recorded using a Mahr Marsurf M300C portable surface roughness profilometer. The roughness values ranged from 0.06 to 0.14 microns over the complete set of experiments. Time-frequency domain spectrogram frames were extracted for each of the vibration signals collected during the grinding process. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) were modeled to predict the surface roughness based on these spectrogram frames and their image augmentations. The best CNN model was able to predict the roughness values with an overall R2-score of 0.95, training R2-score of 0.99, and testing R2-score of 0.81 with only 80 sets of vibration signals corresponding to 4 experiments with 20 trials each. Although the data size is not large enough to guarantee such performance metrics in real-world scenarios, one can extract statistically consistent explanations underlying the relationships these complex deep learning models capture. Further, the LIME methodology was implemented on the developed surface roughness CNN model to identify the important time-frequency bands (i.e., the superpixels of a spectrogram) influencing the predictions. Based on the identified important regions on the spectrogram frames, the corresponding frequency characteristics were determined that influence the surface roughness predictions. The important frequency range based on LIME results was approximately 11.7 to 19.1 kHz. The power of XAI was demonstrated by cutting down the sampling rate from 160 kHz to 30, 20, 10, and 5 kHz based on the important frequency range and considering Nyquist criteria. Separate CNN models were developed for these ranges by only extracting time-frequency contents below their corresponding Nyquist cut-offs. A proper data acquisition strategy is proposed by comparing the model performances to argue the selection of a sufficient sampling rate to capture the grinding process successfully and robustly.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reprint of: Explainable AI (XAI)-driven vibration sensing scheme for surface quality monitoring in a smart surface grinding process

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2004

Absolute Timing of the Crab Pulsar with RXTE

We have monitored the phase of the main X-ray pulse of the Crab pulsar with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) for almost eight years, since the start of the mission in January 1996. The absolute time of RXTE's clock is sufficiently accurate to allow this phase to be compared directly with the radio profile. Our monitoring observations of the pulsar took place bi-weekly (during the periods when it was at least 30 degrees from the Sun) and we correlated the data with radio timing ephemerides derived from observations made at Jodrell Bank. We have determined the phase of the X-ray main pulse for each observation with a typical error in the individual data points of 50 microseconds. The total ensemble is consistent with a phase that is constant over the monitoring period, with the X-ray pulse leading the radio pulse by 0.01025 plus or minus 0.00120 period in phase, or 344 plus or minus 40 microseconds in time. The error estimate is dominated by a systematic error of 40 microseconds, most likely constant, arising from uncertainties in the instrumental calibration of the radio data. The statistical error is 0.00015 period, or 5 microseconds. The separation of the main pulse and interpulse appears to be unchanging at time scales of a year or less, with an average value of 0.4001 plus or minus 0.0002 period. There is no apparent variation in these values with energy over the 2-30 keV range. The lag between the radio and X-ray pulses ma be constant in phase (i.e., rotational in nature) or constant in time (i.e., due to a pathlength difference). We are not (yet) able to distinguish between these two interpretations.

Rots, Arnold H.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract

During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.

Harris, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Robust Statistical Algorithm for Boundary Detection in Liquid Sprays

This work presents a statistical algorithm to detect phase boundaries in liquid sprays. Experimental data were obtained in a nonevaporating acetone spray at atmospheric conditions to minimize the refractive index gradients and associated beam steering. Mie scattering and diffuse background illumination (DBI) diagnostics are implemented to demonstrate the robustness of the approach. The analysis shows that the present algorithm yields similar results for the two different diagnostics, unlike existing threshold-based methodologies providing inconsistent results. The algorithm can be used to identify partial liquid boundaries between single-phase liquid and vapor boundaries. Thus, for each case, liquid boundaries were defined in terms of liquid probability of 100% or less than 100%. Sprays from two different injectors were analyzed to demonstrate the versatility of the methodology. Finally, a parametric study was conducted to demonstrate that motion blur can affect an accurate detection of the phase boundaries, and hence, the exposure time in the experiment must be sufficiently small.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spectral-partitioned Kohn-Sham density functional theory

Here we introduce a general, variational scheme for systematic approximation of a given Kohn-Sham free-energy functional by partitioning the density matrix into distinct spectral domains, each of which may be spanned by an independent diagonal representation without requirement of mutual orthogonality. It is shown that by generalizing the entropic contribution to the free energy to allow for independent representations in each spectral domain, the free energy becomes an upper bound to the exact (unpartitioned) Kohn-Sham free energy, attaining this limit as the representations approach Kohn-Sham eigenfunctions. A numerical procedure is devised for calculation of the generalized entropy associated with spectral partitioning of the density matrix. The result is a powerful framework for Kohn-Sham calculations of systems whose occupied subspaces span multiple energy regimes. As a case in point, we apply the proposed framework to warm- and hot-dense matter described by finite-temperature density functional theory, where at high energies the density matrix is represented by that of the free-electron gas, while at low energies it is variationally optimized. We derive expressions for the spectral-partitioned Kohn-Sham Hamiltonian, atomic forces, and macroscopic stresses within the projector-augmented wave (PAW) and the norm-conserving pseudopotential methods. It is demonstrated that at high temperatures, spectral partitioning facilitates accurate calculations at dramatically reduced computational cost. Moreover, as temperature is increased, fewer exact Kohn-Sham states are required for a given accuracy, leading to further reductions in computational cost. Finally, it is shown that standard multiprojector expansions of electronic orbitals within atomic spheres in the PAW method lack sufficient completeness at high temperatures. Spectral partitioning provides a systematic solution for this fundamental problem.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Diurnal variation in the turbulent structure of the cloudy marine boundary layer during FIRE 1987

During the 1987 FIRE marine stratocumulus experiment the U.K. Meteorological Office operated a set of turbulence probes attached to the tether cable of a balloon based on San Nicolas Island. Typically six probes were used; each probe is fitted with Gill propeller anemometers, a platinum resistance thermometer and wet and dry thermistors, to permit measurements of the fluxes of momentum, heat, and humidity. The orientation of each probe is determined from a pair of inclinometers and a three-axis magnetometer. Sufficient information is available to allow the measured wind velocities to be corrected for the motion of the balloon. On the 14 to 15 July measurements were made over the period 1530 to 1200 UTC and again, after a short break for battery recharging and topping-up the balloon, between 0400 to 0900 UTC. Data were therefore recorded from morning to early evening, and again for a period overnight. Six probes were available for the daytime measurements, five for the night. Data were recorded at 4 Hz for individual periods of a little over an hour. The intention was to keep a minimum of one probe at or just above cloud top; small changes in balloon height were necessary to accommodate changes in inversion height. The ability of the balloon system to make simultaneous measurements at several levels allows the vertical structure of the boundary layer to be displayed without resort to composites. Turbulent statistics were calculated from 2 hour periods, one straddling local noon and one at night. These were subdivided into half-hour averaging intervals for the evaluation of variances and fluxes.

Hignett, Phillip↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical tools for a better optical model

Background: Modern statistical tools provide the ability to compare the information content of observables and provide a path to explore which experiments would be most useful to give insight into and constrain theoretical models. Purpose: Here we study three such tools in the context of nuclear reactions with the goal of constraining the optical potential. Method: The three statistical tools examined are (i) the principal component analysis, (ii) the sensitivity analysis based on derivatives, and (iii) the Bayesian evidence. We first apply these tools to a toy-model case, comparing the form of the imaginary part of the optical potential. Then we consider two different reaction observables, elastic angular distributions and polarization data for reactions on 48 Ca and 208 Pb at two different beam energies. Results: For the toy-model case, we find significant discrimination power in the sensitivities and the Bayesian evidence, showing clearly that the volume imaginary term is more useful to describe scattering at higher energies. When comparing between elastic cross sections and polarization data using realistic optical models, sensitivity studies indicate that both observables are roughly equally sensitive but the variability of the optical model parameters is strongly angle dependent. The Bayesian evidence shows some variability between the two observables, but the Bayes factor obtained is not sufficient to discriminate between angular distributions and polarization. Conclusions: From the cases considered, we conclude that, in general, elastic scattering angular distributions have similar impact in constraining the optical potential parameters compared with the polarization data. The angular ranges for the optimum experimental constraints can vary significantly with the observable considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1977

The application of LANDSAT-1 imagery for monitoring strip mines in the new river watershed in northeast Tennessee, part 2

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT imagery and supplementary aircraft photography of the New River drainage basin were subjected to a multilevel analysis using conventional photointerpretation methods, densitometric techniques, multispectral analysis, and statistical tests to determine the accuracy of LANDSAT-1 imagery for measuring strip mines of common size. The LANDSAT areas were compared with low altitude measurements. The average accuracy over all the mined land sample areas mapped from LANDSAT-1 was 90%. The discrimination of strip mine subcategories is somewhat limited on LANDSAT imagery. A mine site, whether active or inactive, can be inferred by lack of vegetation, by shape, or image texture. Mine ponds are difficult or impossible to detect because of their small size and turbidity. Unless bordered and contrasted with vegetation, haulage roads are impossible to delineate. Preparation plants and refuge areas are not detectable. Density slicing of LANDSAT band 7 proved most useful in the detection of reclamation progress within the mined areas. For most state requirements for year-round monitoring of surface mined land, LANDSAT is of limited value. However, for periodic updating of regional surface maps, LANDSAT may provide sufficient accuracies for some users.

Shahrokhi, F.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Refined views of ancient ocean chemistry: Tracking trace element incorporation in pyrite framboids using atom probe tomography

The trace element chemistry of pyrite can be used to determine the origin, timing, and conditions of formation of ore deposits; as a vectoring tool for mineral exploration; and to determine the evolution of the Earth’s oceanic and atmospheric chemistry. However, little is known about whether trace elements are held with the pyrite structure or within nano-inclusions of other phases. This distinction is important for two primary reasons. First, trace element incorporation into the pyrite structure can affect the partitioning of other trace elements. Second, if trace elements are held within nano-inclusions, the partition coefficient of the mineral phases that make up the nano-inclusion, rather than pyrite, are the critical consideration in related interpretations. Previous studies addressing this topic have used laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry; however, the resulting data do not provide sufficient spatial resolution to delineate trace element distributions unless the inclusions are large. Further, they use these flat element profiles in time resolved laser ablation output graphs to argue that pyrite trace element content provides a direct relationship between trace element content of seawater and pyrite trace element content. To improve resolution, we have used atom probe tomography to characterize trace element distributions in pyrite framboids from the Cariaco Basin and Demerara Rise in three-dimensions at sub-nanometer resolution. Manganese was found to be concentrated in the pyrite nanocrystal part of the original framboid structure. In contrast, Ni was mostly found along the grain boundary, though it still appeared to be contained within the pyrite structure. Copper was concentrated in later pyrite overgrowths, and As varied in its location. These observations suggest that some important trace elements are incorporated into pyrite during early diagenesis, even in euxinic settings dominated by water-column pyrite formation. Statistical analysis was used to determine whether trace elements were incorporated in the lattice or within nanoscale inclusions (referred to here are nano-inclusions). We found that As, Ni, Cu, and Mn were commonly held within the pyrite structure, but As, Ni, and Cu can also be held as nano-inclusions or within grain interfaces. Incorporation of As is known to enhance the incorporation of other trace elements and in this case appears to correlated to elevated Ni and Cu concentrations in the Cariaco Basin samples. Furthermore, understanding these relationships strongly impacts our ability to utilize pyrite trace metal concentrations to analyze and quantify early ocean chemistry and its evolution through time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2008

ISS Charging Hazards and Low Earth Orbit Space Weather Effects

Current collection by high voltage solar arrays on the International Space Station (ISS) drives the vehicle to negative floating potentials in the low Earth orbit daytime plasma environment. Pre-flight predictions of ISS floating potentials Phi greater than |-100 V| suggested a risk for degradation of dielectric thermal control coatings on surfaces in the U.S. sector due to arcing and an electrical shock hazard to astronauts during extravehicular activity (EVA). However, hazard studies conducted by the ISS program have demonstrated that the thermal control material degradation risk is effectively mitigated during the lifetime of the ISS vehicle by a sufficiently large ion collection area present on the vehicle to balance current collection by the solar arrays. To date, crew risk during EVA has been mitigated by operating one of two plasma contactors during EVA to control the vehicle potential within Phi less than or equal to |-40 V| with a backup process requiring reorientation of the solar arrays into a configuration which places the current collection surfaces into wake. This operation minimizes current collection by the solar arrays should the plasma contactors fail. This paper presents an analysis of F-region electron density and temperature variations at low and midlatitudes generated by space weather events to determine what range of conditions represent charging threats to ISS. We first use historical ionospheric plasma measurements from spacecraft operating at altitudes relevant to the 51.6 degree inclination ISS orbit to provide an extensive database of F-region plasma conditions over a variety of solar cycle conditions. Then, the statistical results from the historical data are compared to more recent in-situ measurements from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) operating on ISS in a campaign mode since its installation in August, 2006.

Minow, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1979

Results of a statistical approach to rainfall estimation using Nimbus 5 6.7 micrometers and 11.5 micrometers THIR data

Nimbus 5 6.7 mm and 11.5 mm temperature humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) data were used in a simple multiple regression scheme to test the feasibility of using these data to estimate hourly rainfall. Throughout the test area (85 W to 105 W and 45 N to 30 N) subareas (8 deg x 6 deg) were chosen from which point to point and areal statistics were obtained. Four subsets of data were used. The first consisted of only those surface stations indicating precipitation whose latitude and longitude coincided with the THIR grid points. A second used surface stations 0.1 degree from the THIR grid points. The third was a combination of subsets one and two. A reciprocal distance weighting scheme was used to derive precipitation values in data sparse areas. A fourth subset was made using these data combined with the data from subsets one and two. Point estimates resulted in negative correlations between estimated and grid derived "surface" precipitation. One degree areal estimates showed a slight improvement with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.11. Single regression areal estimates resulted in correlations of approximately 0.11 and 0.20 for the 6.7 mm and 11.5 mm data respectively. These poor results were attributed to problems which are inherent in the satellite data (location errors, short temporal span of data, wavelength of sensors, etc.) and the lack of sufficient surface data to better verify the satellite estimate.

Ormsby, J. P.↗