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At least 595 records · Page 33

Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses

Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future: Additional Modeling Scenarios to Explore Hydrogen Flexibility [Slides]

This slide deck is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The purpose of this slide deck is to supplement the main study (published in May 2024) with additional modeling scenarios to explore hydrogen flexibility.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment of Current (2021) and Future (2035) Technologies

This study presents a cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for U.S. medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across current (2021) and future (2035) technologies using the Greenhouse gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model with industry-vetted assumptions. Results vary across vehicle classes but point to common trends: today, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer significant (10–60%) GHG emissions reduction compared to diesel internal combustion engine vehicles and are the lowest emissions option per ton-mile of cargo movement, followed by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (5–50% emissions reduction). Emissions savings depend largely on the duty cycle and fuel economy of the vehicle type. Future vehicle technology advancements result in comparable emission reductions associated with BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs. Weight-limited BEV trucks see less per-ton-mile emissions reduction due to the impact of battery weight on increased vehicle weight and reduced payload capacity. By 2035, improvements in vehicle efficiency can reduce emissions across all powertrains. However, very low levels of emissions require switching vehicles’ use-phase fuel/energy to low-carbon fuels and electricity. Renewable diesel, e-fuels, hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage or renewables, and use of low-carbon electricity can all achieve over 70% reduction in GHG emissions from the current day diesel-based internal combustion engine vehicle.

alternative fuels↗

Initial soil organic carbon stocks govern changes in soil carbon: Reality or artifact?

Abstract Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage have the potential to affect global climate; hence identifying environments with a high capacity to gain or lose SOC is of broad interest. Many cross‐site studies have found that SOC‐poor soils tend to gain or retain carbon more readily than SOC‐rich soils. While this pattern may partly reflect reality, here we argue that it can also be created by a pair of statistical artifacts. First, soils that appear SOC‐poor purely due to random variation will tend to yield more moderate SOC estimates upon resampling and hence will appear to accrue or retain more SOC than SOC‐rich soils. This phenomenon is an example of regression to the mean. Second, normalized metrics of SOC change—such as relative rates and response ratios—will by definition show larger changes in SOC at lower initial SOC levels, even when the absolute change in SOC does not depend on initial SOC. These two artifacts create an exaggerated impression that initial SOC stocks are a major control on SOC dynamics. To address this problem, we recommend applying statistical corrections to eliminate the effect of regression to the mean, and avoiding normalized metrics when testing relationships between SOC change and initial SOC. Careful consideration of these issues in future cross‐site studies will support clearer scientific inference that can better inform environmental management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of Radiolytic Hydrogen Generation of Irradiated Surrogate Aluminum Plates

The hydrogen generation from oxyhydroxide layers under irradiation is an important effect to understand for the long-term storage of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel. The original chemical model shows steady production of hydrogen from aluminum oxyhydroxide layers, with no roll-over effect in the curves of the hydrogen concentration until significant pressure has built up within the canister. This study uses a variety of kinetic fits to adjust the old chemical model to have roll-over effects that are consistent with new high-dose experiments. The data from aluminum 6061 coupon tests at high doses were used to fit several kinetic models. The 6061 aluminum samples are representative of the aluminum-clad fuel from the ATR. The fitted kinetic models were then used in a model of a mini-canister with much higher packing density to determine which kinetic rates would fit both sets of experimental tests. The rate constants for the kinetic mechanisms that were close were then tweaked such that the chemical models fit both the experimental data from the capsule tests and the data from the mini-canister tests. The kinetic models which fit the best are either inhibition by hydrogen, or a back reaction wherein H radical is reabsorbed onto the oxyhydroxide layer. The H back reaction rolls over quicker and may fit future collected data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integrated Methane Monitoring Platform Extension, Volume I: Final Technical Report

The IMMPE project, DE-FE0032284, was to enhance methane monitoring technologies and their applications across various natural gas asset classes. The scope included deploying advanced methane detection and monitoring technologies to identify and mitigate fugitive methane emissions, measuring emission rates, and assessing impacts. The findings included the successful mitigation of identified emissions and quantification of emission rates. A key outcome was the development of a comprehensive template and summary of recommendations for methane emissions monitoring, which is replicable for both upstream and downstream applications. Furthermore, the project emphasized the importance of education by providing training opportunities for technicians and regulators, thereby fostering awareness and promoting the adoption of cost-effective methane emissions monitoring and management techniques.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Electronic and Structural Properties of the Polymer-Electrolyte Interphase in Electrochemically Doped Polymers

The advance of soft, polymer-based (photo)electrochemical energy transformation and storage applications requires a framework for polymer and electrolyte design that includes a deep understanding of the polymer–electrolyte interphase. Here, we report on the investigations of two napthalenediimide (NDI)–bithiophene (T2)-based semiconducting copolymers using computational modeling and in situ, ex situ, and operando techniques to reveal how changes in electrolyte and polymer chemistry modulate the electronic and structural properties of polymer electrodes during electrochemical (de)doping. These systems are shown to host an ensemble of polarons, in contrast with the single polaron-like character often reported, whose properties vary with the nature of the local environment. Importantly, these polarons serve as reporters of the nanoscale environments in which they reside. We demonstrate that controlling the polymer and electrolyte chemistry regulates the nature of the charge carriers generated upon electrochemical doping and/or exciton dissociation in a photoelectrochemical solar cell: For instance, divalent counterions enable polaron and bipolaron formation at lower reducing potentials, while supporting more bipolaron formation than monovalent counterions. A novel application of NEXAFS reveals insights into charge (de)localization, providing a pathway for future investigation of electron transport mechanisms. Finally, simulations of polymer swelling of an amorphous interphase show that charge formation has a large impact on polymer swelling and ion penetration. These studies deliver insights to enable the control of charge-carrier and ion transport, the rates of electron transfer and catalytic efficiency, device stability, and overall device performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Secondary-electron imaging of bulk crystalline specimens in an aberration corrected $\text{STEM}$

Atomic-scale electron microscopy traditionally probes thin specimens, with thickness below 100 nm, and its feasibility for bulk samples has not been documented. Here in this study, we explore the practicality of scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM) imaging with secondary electrons (SE), using a silicon-wedge specimen having a maximum thickness of 18 μm. We find that the atomic structure is present in the entire thickness range of the SE images although the background intensity increases moderately with thickness. The consistent intensity of secondary electron (SE) images at atomic positions and the modest increase in intensity in between (background) observed in silicon suggest a limited contribution from SEs generated by backscattered electrons, a conclusion supported by our multislice calculations. We conclude that achieving atomic resolution in SE imaging for bulk specimens is indeed attainable using aberration-corrected STEM and that an aberration-corrected scanning electron microscope (SEM) may have the capacity for atomic-level resolution, holding great promise for future strides in materials research.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Watching Polarons Move in the Energy and Frequency Domains Using Color Impedance Spectroscopy

The hybrid electronic–ionic transport property of π-conjugated polymers enables new (opto)electrochemical device constructs for energy conversion and storage and biosensing applications. One major challenge is separating the energy and frequency dependence of Faradaic events–those involving charge transfer and the redox processes of the conjugated backbone–from the non-Faradaic components, such as ionic motion. Herein, we combine optical spectroscopy with electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) to resolve the frequency response of ionic–electronic coupling as a function of electrochemical doping potential. First, using EIS, we identify two different frequency regimes resulting in potential-dependent capacitive elements on the order of ~10 μF/cm 2 in a high-frequency regime and ~50–150 μF/cm 2 in a low-frequency regime. Given the larger magnitude and greater potential dependence, we posit that polaronic motion is more likely to occur at low frequencies (<1 kHz) and overlaps with ionic motion. The use of color impedance spectroscopy (CIS) enables observation of polaronic motion with frequency modulation. We observe that higher doping potentials show a greater motion of polarons above the DC-bias baseline concentration for onset in electrochemical doping, but all potentials considered demonstrate a critical frequency at which the polaronic motion is “frozen” (~40 Hz). Furthermore, this critical information obtained from CIS in highly dielectric environments offers a unique figure of merit for future studies on electronic–ionic coupling by which to compare across polymer/electrolyte interfaces, including the role of a charge-supporting electrolyte, a solvent, and alternative Faradaic processes (e.g., electrocatalysis).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Changes in above- versus belowground biomass distribution in permafrost regions in response to climate warming

Permafrost regions contain approximately half of the carbon stored in land ecosystems and have warmed at least twice as much as any other biome. This warming has influenced vegetation activity, leading to changes in plant composition, physiology, and biomass storage in aboveground and belowground components, ultimately impacting ecosystem carbon balance. Yet, little is known about the causes and magnitude of long-term changes in the above- to belowground biomass ratio of plants (η). Here, in this study, we analyzed η values using 3,013 plots and 26,337 species-specific measurements across eight sites on the Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2021. Our analysis revealed distinct temporal trends in η for three vegetation types: a 17% increase in alpine wetlands, and a decrease of 26% and 48% in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, respectively. These trends were primarily driven by temperature-induced growth preferences rather than shifts in plant species composition. Our findings indicate that in wetter ecosystems, climate warming promotes aboveground plant growth, while in drier ecosystems, such as alpine meadows and alpine steppes, plants allocate more biomass belowground. Furthermore, we observed a threefold strengthening of the warming effect on η over the past 27 y. Soil moisture was found to modulate the sensitivity of η to soil temperature in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, but not in alpine wetlands. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the processes driving the response of biomass distribution to climate warming, which is crucial for predicting the future carbon trajectory of permafrost ecosystems and climate feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Effectiveness of Carbon Cloth Electrodes for All-Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries

Vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) have shown to be a promising technology for integrating intermittent renewable energy sources into the existing electrical grid. Incorporation of carbon cloth electrodes into VRFB is an area of interest for their enhanced electrochemical performance, however, issues with performance degradation throughout the duration of the experiment persist. This study investigates the performance evolution of carbon cloth electrodes during VRFB cycling to build a hypothesis on possible reasons for the declining performance. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and polarization curve measurements are used in conjunction to monitor the electrode degradation and shed light on the effectiveness of carbon cloth electrodes during extended cycling experiments. A detailed investigation into the structure of the carbon cloth electrodes before and after cycling, via several material characterization tests, provides insight needed to determine an explanation for the increasing resistance. The structural integrity and surface morphology of the carbon cloth electrodes are evaluated to compare the electrode before and after cycling, displaying any changes to the electrode due to cycling. Durability of hydrophilicity during RFB cycling is found to be a key feature for future carbon cloth electrode design efforts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Beyond conventional batteries: a review on semi-solid and redox targeting flow batteries-LiFePO{sub 4} as a case study.

Clean and sustainable energy is becoming increasingly crucial to tackle the current energy crisis. However, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources presents a challenge for their effective implementation. Redox flow batteries (RFBs) have emerged as a promising solution to this problem, as they can help enhance the stability of grid networks and promote the use of renewable energy sources. RFBs are highly modular and scalable systems that can be customized to meet the power and energy requirements of different renewable energy plants. Moreover, they offer several advantages over conventional battery technologies, including cost and safety concerns. However, conventional RFBs have limited energy densities due to the low solubility of their active species in electrolyte. To overcome this limitation, semi-solid (SSRFBs) and redox targeting (RTFBs) flow batteries have been proposed. These systems feature high concentrations of active species and impressive energy densities, making them highly attractive for renewable energy applications. LiFePO4 (LFP) is a highly promising active material for semi-solid and targeting flow batteries. One of the key advantages of LFP is its low raw materials cost, as it is composed of Earth-abundant elements such as iron and phosphorus. This makes it an attractive option for large-scale battery production. The recent developments in SSRFBs and RTFBs using LFP as catholyte hold great promise for the future of sustainable energy storage. The combination of LFP's low cost, safety, durability, and high energy density with the modularity and scalability of flow battery systems make for a compelling solution to the challenges of intermittent renewable energy sources. Ongoing research and development in this area will likely yield even further improvements in the performance and efficiency of LFP-based flow batteries, opening exciting new possibilities for sustainable energy storage.

El Halya, Nabil↗

Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Molecular-scale mechanisms of CO 2 mineralization in nanoscale interfacial water films

The calamitous impacts of untethered carbon emission from fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure calls for accelerated development of large-scale CO 2 capture, utilization, and storage technologies that are underpinned by fundamental understanding of molecular-level chemical processes. In the subsurface, rocks rich in divalent metals can react with CO 2 , permanently sequestering it in the form of stable metal carbonate minerals, with the CO 2 -H 2 O composition of the post-injection pore fluid acting as a primary control variable. Herein, we compare mechanistic reaction pathways for aqueous-mediated carbonation with carbon mineralization occurring in nanoscale adsorbed water films. In the extreme of pores filled with a CO 2 -dominant fluid, carbonation reactions are confined to nanometer-thick water films coating mineral surfaces, which enable metal cation release, transport, nucleation, and crystallization of metal carbonate minerals. Though seemingly counterintuitive, laboratory studies have demonstrated facile carbonation rates in these low water environments, which in recent years has begun to be better understood in mechanistic detail. The overarching objective of this review is to delineate the unique underlying molecular-scale reaction mechanisms that govern CO 2 mineralization in these reactive and dynamic quasi-2D interfaces. Here. we highlight the importance of understanding unique properties in thin water films, such as how water dielectric properties, and consequently ion solvation/hydration behavior, can change under nanoconfinement. We conclude by identifying important frontiers for future work and opportunities to exploit these fundamental chemical insights for decarbonization technologies in the 21st century.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

THERMAL STRESS ANALYSIS OF A SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CANISTER

The potential for chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC) in spent nuclear fuel dry storage canisters is a current topic of research by the US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program. One of the important prerequisites for CISCC is a tensile residual stress state. This study utilizes computational models to provide an initial analysis of thermal stresses in a generic spent nuclear fuel canister. A STAR-CCM+ thermal fluid model provides a temperature profile analysis of the canister based on four different ambient temperature conditions. An ANSYS APDL finite element model incorporates the temperature profiles to analyze the thermal stresses in the canister. The calculated thermal stress magnitudes are in the range of 10 MPa to 80 MPa, which could be significant for crack propagation through the canister wall. The maximum thermal stress is not a concern for the structural failure of the canister, but it is high enough that it is a significant contribution to the total stress state of the canister wall, which also includes residual stress from fabrication, internal pressure from helium cover gas, and potential transient mechanical loads, such as earthquakes. This paper describes the initial finite element thermal stress analysis that was completed in 2020, reports the initial findings, and identifies areas where model refinement is still needed to complete this work in the future.

Jensen, Ben J.↗

The Cost of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in California Between 2019 and 2032

California’s energy planning is centered around meeting the emissions reduction and renewable energy requirements of Senate Bill 350 by 2030. However, state power system planning is expected to eventually address California’s requirement to achieve 100% of total retail electricity sales from renewable energy and zero-carbon resources by 2045, as mandated by Senate Bill 100. To comply with these directives, California needs to investigate the further development of energy efficiency, storage, and a diverse range of renewable energy, zero-carbon emission, and transmission resources, including offshore wind. Wind resources off the coast of California have the potential to generate a significant portion of the state’s electric energy as it moves toward a zero-carbon economy and can help diversify its energy mix. Floating offshore wind technology, which is suitable for the deep waters along the California coast, is currently in a precommercial phase, with approximately 84 megawatts (MW) installed worldwide at the end of 2019. Globally there are over 7,000 MW in planning and permitting phases of development, with the first commercial-scale projects expected to be operational in 2024. This study provides site-specific cost and performance data for floating offshore wind to inform California’s long-term energy planning. The identification of new resources to meet California’s policy goals at least cost is part of the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, which is coordinated by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). In 2019–2020 IRP modeling, offshore wind was included for the first time as a candidate resource in some sensitivity cases (CPUC 2019). The data and information presented in this report can be used to update offshore wind inputs in future IRP cycles. The authors conducted a geospatial cost analysis over portions of the offshore wind resource area of California. The analyzed spatial domain includes sites with a mean wind speed of at least 7 meters per second and water depths between 40 meters (m) and 1,300 m. Costs and energy production vary across this analysis domain. We calculated these parameters on a grid layout with over 750 sites, with each site representing a 1,000-MW commercial offshore wind power plant. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated at each site over the analysis domain. The resulting variation in LCOE across the analysis domain is illustrated through heat maps in this report. Five study areas were selected within the analysis domain where more detailed cost analysis was conducted and cost parameters, such as annual energy production, capital cost expenditures (CapEx), operational cost expenditures (OpEx), and net capacity factors are reported. These five study areas include Morro Bay, Diablo Canyon, Humboldt, Cape Mendocino and Del Norte.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantification of the Impact of Acidified Brine on Fracture-Matrix Transport in a Naturally Fractured Shale Using in Situ Imaging and Modeling

Understanding flow, transport, chemical reactions, and hydromechanical processes in fractured geologic materials is key for optimizing a range of subsurface processes including carbon dioxide and hydrogen storage, unconventional energy resource extraction, and geothermal energy recovery. Flow and transport processes in naturally fractured shale rocks have been challenging to characterize due to experimental complexity and the multiscale nature of quantifying continuum scale descriptions of mass exchange between micrometer-scale fractures and nanometer-scale pores. In this study, we use positron emission tomography (PET) to image the transport of a conservative tracer in a naturally fractured Wolfcamp shale core before and after the core was exposed to low pH brine conditions. Image-based experimental observations are interpreted by fitting an analytical transport model to fracture-containing voxels in the core. Results of this analysis indicate subtle increases in matrix diffusivity and a slightly more uniform fracture velocity distribution following exposure to low pH conditions. These observations are compared with a multicomponent one-dimensional reactive transport model that indicates the capacity for a 10% increase in porosity at the fracture-matrix interface as a result of the low pH brine exposure. This porosity change is the result of the dissolution of carbonate minerals in the shale matrix to low pH conditions. Further, this image-based workflow represents a new approach for quantifying spatially resolved fracture-matrix transport processes and provides a foundation for future work to better understand the role of coupled transport, reaction, and mechanical processes in naturally fractured rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Incorporating Microtopography in a Land Surface Model and Quantifying the Effect on the Carbon Cycle

Abstract Northern peatlands are a terrestrial carbon store, with an annual sink of 0.1 Pg C yr −1 and a total storage estimate of 547 Pg C. Northern peatlands are also major contributors of atmospheric methane. Most land surface models do not accurately represent peatland carbon emissions, partly because they do not represent the hydrologic cycle and/or microtopography adequately. Interactions between water table depth and microtopography in peatlands influence decomposition and modulate CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. A modified version of the land surface component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, was recently created to represent the microtopography and hydrology of a raised dome bog in northern Minnesota, USA. In this study, three microtopographic parameters are analyzed in the modified version: hummock height, hummock‐hollow spacing, and percent hollow. Terrestrial laser scanning observations are used to set uncertainty bounds for these parameters. Our model experiment results suggest that carbon‐related quantities of interest (QOI) were typically the most sensitive to hummock height, and those QOI (especially net ecosystem exchange, NEE) were sensitive to interactions between parameters. Furthermore, NEE was most relatively influenced by microtopographic parameters in the model, varying by 35%. We found that increasing hummock height resulted in more C being stored in plant tissue and less in soil organic matter. This coincided with decreases in Sphagnum and increases in Picea and shrub net primary production. These results suggest that future studies may consider extending prognostic capabilities of carbon cycling by incorporating hummock hollow microtopography into earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗