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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Thermal Evaluation of Fiber Bragg Gratings at Extreme Temperatures

The development of integrated fiber optic sensors for use in aerospace health monitoring systems demands that the sensors be able to perform in extreme environments. In order to use fiber optic sensors effectively in an extreme environment one must have a thorough understanding of the sensor's capabilities, limitations, and performance under extreme environmental conditions. This paper reports on our current sensor evaluation examining the performance of freestanding fiber Bragg gratings (FBG) at extreme temperatures. While the ability of FBGs to survive at extreme temperatures has been established, their performance and long term survivability is not well documented. At extreme temperatures the grating structure would be expected to dissipate, degrading the sensors performance and eventually ceasing to return a detectable signal. The fiber jacket will dissipate leaving a brittle, unprotected fiber. For FBGs to be used in aerospace systems their performance and limitations need to be thoroughly understood at extreme temperatures. As the limits of the FBGs performance are pushed the long term survivability and performance of the sensor comes into question. We will not only examine the ability of FBGs to survive extreme temperatures but also look at their performance during many thermal cycles. This paper reports on test results of the performance of thermal cycling commercially available FBGs, at temperatures up to 1000 C, seen in aerospace applications. Additionally this paper will report on the performance of commercially available FBGs held at 1000 C for hundreds of hours. Throughout the evaluation process, various parameters of the FBGs performance were monitored and recorded. Several test samples were subjected to identical test conditions to allow for statistical analysis of the data. Test procedures, calibrations, referencing techniques, performance data, and interpretations and explanations of results are presented in the paper along with directions for future research.

Juergens, Jeffrey↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electron-Affinity Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory: Formalism and Applications to Core-Excited States

The lack of particle-hole attraction and orbital relaxation within time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) lead to extreme errors in the prediction of K-edge X-ray absorption spectra (XAS). We derive a linear-response formalism that uses optimized orbitals of the n - 1-electron system as the reference, building orbital relaxation and a proper hole into the initial density. Here, our approach is an exact generalization of the static-exchange approximation that ameliorates the particle-hole interaction error associated with the adiabatic approximation and reduces errors in TDDFT XAS by orders of magnitude. With a statistical performance of just 0.5 eV root-mean-square error and the same computational scaling as TDDFT under the core-valence separation approximation, we anticipate that this approach will be of great utility in XAS calculations of large systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗
NASA NTRS1983

Solar irradiance variations. II - Analysis of the extreme ultraviolet measurements onboard the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite

Five of the extreme ultraviolet channels (L-alpha, L-beta, He I, He II, Fe XV) measuring irradiance fluctuations on board the AE-E satellite between 1977 and 1980 have been studied in detail. It is shown that the daily variations correspond very closely to the daily variations in solar radio emission (F10.7), but that the UV data are afflicted with serious and to date unrecognized calibration changes during the period of operation of the instruments. In order to correct for these changes, a statistical analysis is carried out, and a set of corrections to the raw data is suggested. The resulting, now uniform, data are then compared with rocket measurements (L-alpha) and data acquired onboard the AE-C satellite (L-beta). Finally the remaining discrepancies are discussed. After concluding that they are below the overall level of uncertainties, a first-order 10-year run of EUV irradiances derived from F10.7 data is proposed. This estimate includes the ratio of irradiance levels between the maxima of solar cycles 20 and 21 and the intervening minimum.

Oster, L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Quality Control of Meteorological Observations

For the first time, a problem of the meteorological observation quality control (QC) was formulated by L.S. Gandin at the Main Geophysical Observatory in the 70's. Later in 1988 L.S. Gandin began adapting his ideas in complex quality control (CQC) to the operational environment at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The CQC was first applied by L.S.Gandin and his colleagues to detection and correction of errors in rawinsonde heights and temperatures using a complex of hydrostatic residuals.Later, a full complex of residuals, vertical and horizontal optimal interpolations and baseline checks were added for the checking and correction of a wide range of meteorological variables. some other of Gandin's ideas were applied and substantially developed at other meteorological centers. A new statistical QC was recently implemented in the Goddard Data Assimilation System. The central component of any quality control is a buddy check which is a test of individual suspect observations against available nearby non-suspect observations. A novel feature of this test is that the error variances which are used for QC decision are re-estimated on-line. As a result, the allowed tolerances for suspect observations can depend on local atmospheric conditions. The system is then better able to accept extreme values observed in deep cyclones, jet streams and so on. The basic statements of this adaptive buddy check are described. Some results of the on-line QC including moisture QC are presented.

Collins, William↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Creating A Consistent Historical NASA POWER Solar Radiation Dataset to Support Renewable Energy, Building Energy Efficiency and Agro-Climatology Decisions

Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project provides irradiance dataset to support renewable energy, building energy efficiency and agricultural needs. These datasets are derived from Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget (GEWEX SRB) and Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES SYN1Deg). A systematic bias has been reported between these two datasets for the years with overlapping observations. For obtaining a consistent climate data record spanning the entire time record of observations, it is crucial to understand and remove the bias in the irradiance dataset. Inconsistency in solar radiation data can lead to inaccurate conclusions about solar energy potential and obscure real trends in solar radiation patterns that would impact energy availability assessments. In this study, we adapt quantile mapping approach to remove the systematic bias and to improve reliability of shortwave and longwave irradiance data. We present a validation of the bias corrected data against ground truth. For each 1° latitude and 1° longitude grid box across the globe, we match the CDFs of the reference dataset (CERES SYN1Deg) to that of the SRB dataset, thereby, adjusting the irradiance values to match the empirical distribution of two different measurements. The performance of quantile mapping is evaluated by using the metrics such as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The results indicate that the quantile mapping significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of solar irradiance dataset especially for the weather conditions associated with high cloud cover and extreme irradiance values. The initial range of MAD for the studied sites for daily data was 4 to 19 Wm-2. After correction these reduced to 3 to 7 Wm-2. The findings from this study have important implications for solar energy system design, agricultural planning, and climate modeling community. Reducing the inconsistency and biases in solar irradiance dataset can enable better planning and operation of solar energy systems, leading to increased efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, this work also contributes to the statistical post-processing techniques in the renewable energy domain and highlights the potential of historical and near-real-time NASA POWER dataset as a valuable resource for solar energy research and applications.

POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗
NASA NTRS2007

The JEM-EUSO Mission

JEM-EUSO is a science mission to explore extremes of the Universe. It observes the dark-side of the Earth and detects UV photons emitted from the extensive air shower caused by an extreme energy particle (about 10(exp 20) eV). Such a particle arrives almost straightly through our Milky Way Galaxy and is expected to allow us to trace the source location by its arrival direction. This will open the door to the new astronomy with charged particles. In its five years operation including the tilted mode, JEM-EUSO will detect at least 1,000 events with E>7 X 10(exp 19) eV and determine the energy spectrum of trans-GZK region with a statistical accuracy of several percent. JEM-EUSO is planned to be transported with HTV (H2 Transfer Vehicle) and attached to the Japanese Experiment Module/ Exposure Facility (JEM/EF) of International Space Station. JAXA has selected JEM-EUSO for one of the mission candidates of the second phase utilization of JEM/EF for the launch of early 2010s. One year-long phase-A study will be carried out under JAXA.

Adams, J.H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Historic View of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)

We present a historic overview of CME observations, ending with concepts for future measurement capabilities. One of the first detections of what we now call a CME was provided by instrumentation on OSO-7 and reported by Tousey (1973); but the phrase "corona) mass ejection" was coined after the Skylab/ATM coronagraph detected dozens of the transients over its nine month observing run (e.g., Munro et al., 1979). Pre-discovery identification of likely CMEs were then reported in historic eclipse photographs and drawings (e.g., Eddy, 1974; Cliver, 1989). Multi-year observations followed with groundbased MLSO MK3/4 coronagraph (1980-present), and spacebased missions: Solwind (1979-1985), SMM (1980-1989), SOHO LASCO/EIT (1996-present), SMEI (2003-present), and STEREO SECCHI (2006-present). The Spartan 201 coronagraph flew in space multiple times. The influential Gosling (1993) "solar flare myth" manuscript identified CMEs as the cause of the most severe geomagnetic storms, thus cementing their importance in Sun-Earth connection studies. A new window into CMEs was opened with the launch of SOHO in 1995 when the UVCS spectrometer began returning plasma diagnostics of a significant number of events (e.g., Ciaravella et al., 2006). What about the future for CME research? Statistical properties of the UVCS CME observations are forthcoming; the STEREO mission should continue to return views of CMEs from unique vantage points; and the recent launch of SDO should provide new insights into the small spatial scale dynamics of activity associated with CMEs. Several new observing techniques have been demonstrated at total eclipses, and inclusion on spacebased platforms in the future could also prove valuable for understanding CMEs. A common element of several recent proposals is to image the white-light corona with extremely high spatial resolution. The momentary glimpses of the corona during total solar eclipses have shown fine structure that is not captured by global models, and dynamics of these structured elements may be important to resolve the question of CME initiation.

SaintCyr, Orville C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: North Pacific and North America

The prominence of nonlinearities in the response to El Niño as compared to La Niña, to moderate El Niño events as compared to extreme El Ninño events, and to different flavors of El Niño events, are analyzed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. In the Central North Pacific region where the sea level pressure response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks, nonlinearities are relatively muted. In contrast, changes to the east of this region (i.e. the far-Northeastern Pacific) and to the north of this region (over Alaska) in response to different ENSO phases are more clearly nonlinear, and become statistically robust after more than 15 events are considered. The relative prominence of these nonlinearities is related to the zonal wavenumber of the tropical precipitation response. Associated with these nonlinearities over the far-Northeastern Pacific are nonlinearities in precipitation over Western United States and surface temperature over Northwest North America and Midwestern United States. In all regions at least 15 events of each type are necessary before nonlinearities can be identified as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level due to the presence of internal atmospheric variability. As there have only been a similar number of ENSO events to the total needed for significance since 1920, it is not surprising that it has been difficult to establish statistically significant nonlinearities using observational data.

Nonlinearities↗
DOE OSTI2022

Madden-Julian oscillation influences United States springtime tornado and hail frequency

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics and has a documented influence on extratropical extreme weather through modulation of synoptic atmospheric conditions. MJO phase has been correlated with anomalous tornado and severe hail frequency in the United States (US). However, the robustness of this relationship is unsettled, and the variability of physical pathways to modulation is poorly understood, despite the socioeconomic impacts that tornadoes and hail evoke. We approached this problem using pentad MJO indices and practically perfect severe weather hindcasts. MJO lifecycles were cataloged and clustered to document variability and potential pathways to enhanced subseasonal tornado and hail predictability. Statistically significant increases in US tornado and hail probabilities were documented 3–4 weeks following the period of the strongest upper-level divergence for the 53 active MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent, contrasting with the 47 MJO events that experienced the barrier effect, during boreal spring 1979–2019. The 53 MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent revealed three prevailing MJO evolutions—each containing unique pathways and modulation of US tornado and hail frequency—advancing our knowledge and capability to anticipate these hazards at extended lead times.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1995

Non-local transport in turbulent MHD convection

The nonlocal non-diffusive transport of passive scalars in turbulent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) convection is investigated using transilient matrices. These matrices describe the probability that a tracer particle beginning at one position in a flow will be advected to another position after some time. A method for the calculation of these matrices from simulation data which involves following the trajectories of passive tracer particles and calculating their transport statistics, is presented. The method is applied to study the transport in several simulations of turbulent, rotating, three dimensional compressible, penetrative MDH convection. Transport coefficients and other diagnostics are used to quantify the transport, which is found to resemble advection more closely than diffusion. Some of the results are found to have direct relevance to other physical problems, such as the light element depletion in sun-type stars. The large kurtosis found for downward moving particles at the base of the convection zone implies several extreme events.

Miesch, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2000

UV 380 nm Reflectivity of the Earth's Surface

The 380 nm radiance measurements of TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) have been converted into a global data set of daily (1979 to 1992) Lambert equivalent reflectivities R of the Earth's surface and boundary layer (clouds, aerosols, surface haze, and snow/ice). Since UV surface reflectivity is between 2 and 8% for both land and water during all seasons of the year (except for ice and snow cover), reflectivities larger than the surface value indicates the presence of clouds, haze, or aerosols in the satellite field of view. Statistical analysis of 14 years of daily data show that most snow/ice-free regions of the Earth have their largest fraction of days each year when the reflectivity is low (R less than 10%). The 380 nm reflectivity data shows that the true surface reflectivity is 2 to 3% lower than the most frequently occurring reflectivity value for each TOMS scene. The most likely cause of this could be a combination of frequently occurring boundary-layer water or aerosol haze. For most regions, the observation of extremely clear conditions needed to estimate the surface reflectivity from space is a comparatively rare occurrence. Certain areas (e.g., Australia, southern Africa, portions of northern Africa) are cloud-free more than 80% of the year, which exposes these regions to larger amounts of UV radiation than at comparable latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Regions over rain-forests, jungle areas, Europe and Russia, the bands surrounding the Arctic and Antarctic regions, and many ocean areas have significant cloud cover (R greater than 15%) more than half of each year. In the low to middle latitudes, the areas with the heaviest cloud cover (highest reflectivity for most of the year) are the forest areas of northern South America, southern Central America, the jungle areas of equatorial Africa, and high mountain regions such as the Himalayas or the Andes. The TOMS reflectivity data show the presence of large nearly clear ocean areas and the effects of the major ocean currents on cloud production.

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A method for modelling peak signal statistics on a mobile satellite transponder

A simulation method is proposed. The simulation was developed to model the peak duration and energy content of signal peaks in a mobile communication satellite operating in a Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA) mode and presents an estimate of those power peaks for a system where the channels are modeled as band limited Gaussian noise, which is taken as a reasonable representation for Amplitude Commanded Single Sideband (ACSSB), Minimum Shift Keying (MSK), or Phase Shift Keying (PSK) modulated signals. The simulation results show that, under this hypothesis, the level of the signal power peaks for 10 percent, 1 percent, and 0.1 percent of the time are well described by a Rayleigh law and that their duration is extremely short and inversely proportional to the total FDM system bandwidth.

Bilodeau, Andre↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding GPU Memory Corruption at Extreme Scale: The Summit Case Study

GPU memory corruption and in particular double-bit errors (DBEs) remain one of the least understood aspects of HPC system reliability. Albeit rare, their occurrences always lead to job termination and can potentially cost thousands of node-hours, either from wasted computations or as the overhead from regular checkpointing needed to minimize the losses. As supercomputers and their components simultaneously grow in scale, density, failure rates, and environmental footprint, the efficiency of HPC operations becomes both an imperative and a challenge. We examine DBEs using system telemetry data and logs collected from the Summit supercomputer, equipped with 27,648 Tesla V100 GPUs with 2nd-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM2). Using exploratory data analysis and statistical learning, we extract several insights about memory reliability in such GPUs. We find that GPUs with prior DBE occurrences are prone to experience them again due to otherwise harmless factors, correlate this phenomenon with GPU placement, and suggest manufacturing variability as a factor. On the general population of GPUs, we link DBEs to short- and long-term high power consumption modes while finding no significant correlation with higher temperatures. We also show that the workload type can be a factor in memory’s propensity to corruption.

Oles, Vlad↗
NASA NTRS1990

The physiological cost of wearing the propellant handler's ensemble at the Kennedy Space Center

The potential for exposure to toxins used in the propulsion systems of spacecraft dictates the use of a whole body protective suit, the Propellant Handler's Ensemble (PHE) during preflight preparation and launching. The weight, structure, and operating parameters of the PHE may be expected to have a significant impact upon the metabolic, cardiovascular, and thermal responses of the user, especially during ambient temperature extremes and high workload situations. Four male subjects participated in tests in -7, 23, and 43 C (20, 74, and 110 F) environments in two versions of the PHE, the autonomous backpack (BP) and the hoseline (HL) supplied configuration. Measurements included heart rate (HR) rectal temperature, four skin temperatures, oxygen (O2), and carbon dioxide (CO2) in the helmet area, interior suit temperature, and suit pressure. Exercise metabolism was estimated from HR, PHE weight, and treadmill speed and grade. The HR responses between each PHE configuration were not statistically different. As a percentage of HR maximum, the mean values were 79 percent (COLD), 84 percent (LAB), and 90 percent (HOT). Helmet O2 and CO2 levels were correlated with percent HR max (P less than 0.001). Rectal temperatures were similar for each PHE configuration, except in the HOT exposure where the BP version exceeded the HL configuration (P less than 0.05). In nearly every instance the HR was driven to moderately high levels, the supplied respiratory gases were not optimum, and thermal adversity was a primary stressor. Our findings suggest that medical and physical fitness standards, along with operational restrictions, should be imposed upon PHE users to avoid situations that could adversely affect the worker.

Schonfeld, Brian R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Development of a scintillating optical fiber ionization calorimeter

A design study of a scintillation fiber (SF) calorimeter for a cosmic ray observation is made. An evaluation of various fibers and design configuration was made. The proposed design has a dimension of 1 m (W) x 1 m (L) x 16 cm (H) contains 1000 fibers at each of 40 x- or 40 y-layers interleaved with 1mm thick leadplates. Two or four CCD Particle Track Imaging Systems are connected to a bundle of SF edges at x- and y-ends. The overall weight of a calorimeter is 1,200 kg including read-out systems and supporting boards. The designed calorimeter can measure cosmic ray nuclei and gamma-rays with position, angles and energy information suitable for detailed spectrum analysis. The system is particularly beneficial at very high energies where the flux is extremely low and it requires a very long exposure over many years in space. Emulsion chambers have an advantage for cosmic ray measurements if the exposure is limited to several months in space. In fact, the most important energy region for the current cosmic ray studies is at around 1,000 TeV where a drastic change of elemental composition is indicated by various indirect observations. A detector whose size is in the order of 1 m(sup 2) requires several years of exposure in space accumulate sufficient statistics near 1,000 TeV. Emulsions will be strongly contaminated by background radiation for such a long duration flight, while SF calorimeter is totally immune from this concern. This is particularly important for long-duration experiments. The SF calorimeter also allows time-tagging of individual events, extending the experimental capability in various ways.

Takahashi, Y.↗