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Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Compact Video Microscope Imaging System Implemented in Colloid Studies

Long description Photographs showing fiber-optic light source, microscope and charge-coupled discharge (CCD) camera head connected to camera body, CCD camera body feeding data to image acquisition board in PC, and Cartesian robot controlled via PC board. The Compact Microscope Imaging System (CMIS) is a diagnostic tool with intelligent controls for use in space, industrial, medical, and security applications. CMIS can be used in situ with a minimum amount of user intervention. This system can scan, find areas of interest in, focus on, and acquire images automatically. Many multiple-cell experiments require microscopy for in situ observations; this is feasible only with compact microscope systems. CMIS is a miniature machine vision system that combines intelligent image processing with remote control. The software also has a user-friendly interface, which can be used independently of the hardware for further post-experiment analysis. CMIS has been successfully developed in the SML Laboratory at the NASA Glenn Research Center and adapted for use for colloid studies and is available for telescience experiments. The main innovations this year are an improved interface, optimized algorithms, and the ability to control conventional full-sized microscopes in addition to compact microscopes. The CMIS software-hardware interface is being integrated into our SML Analysis package, which will be a robust general-purpose image-processing package that can handle over 100 space and industrial applications.

McDowell, Mark↗

Towards 5G-Enabled Operational Technology for Process Monitoring and Network Slicing

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) are deployed to monitor physical processes in critical cyber-enabled services like power generation. However, CPS ecosystems are typically designed without robust security. While it is important to ensure optimal performance of the Operational Technology (OT) environments, security cannot be overlooked. To modernize traditional OT services, 5G technology is being integrated. 5G technology offers low latency and high availability, making it a suitable infrastructure for managing and monitoring physical processes. How-ever, integrating 5G mechanisms into large-scale OT networks introduces new implementation and performance challenges. Therefore, this paper presents a 5G-enabled CPS architecture (5G-CPS) that describes the necessary components, services, and communication protocols and conducts feasibility study to integrate 5G technology in industrial control system networks to understand the performance merits. The 5G-CPS architecture aims to minimize implementation and operational challenges associated with integrating 5G technology into constrained OT.

Aguayo, Jared M.↗

Frost prediction using machine learning and deep neural network models

This study describes accurate, computationally efficient models that can be implemented for practical use in predicting frost events for point-scale agricultural applications. Frost damage in agriculture is a costly burden to farmers and global food security alike. Timely prediction of frost events is important to reduce the cost of agricultural frost damage and traditional numerical weather forecasts are often inaccurate at the field-scale in complex terrain. In this paper, we developed machine learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of such frost events near Alcalde, NM at the point-scale. ML algorithms investigated include deep neural network, convolution neural networks, and random forest models at lead-times of 6–48 h. Our results show promising accuracy (6-h prediction RMSE = 1.53–1.72°C) for use in frost and minimum temperature prediction applications. Seasonal differences in model predictions resulted in a slight negative bias during Spring and Summer months and a positive bias in Fall and Winter months. Additionally, we tested the model transferability by continuing training and testing using data from sensors at a nearby farm. We calculated the feature importance of the random forest models and were able to determine which parameters provided the models with the most useful information for predictions. We determined that soil temperature is a key parameter in longer term predictions (>24 h), while other temperature related parameters provide the majority of information for shorter term predictions. The model error compared favorable to previous ML based frost studies and outperformed the physically based High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecasting system making our ML-models attractive for deployment toward real-time monitoring of frost events and damage at commercial farming operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Envisioning a 21st Century, National, Spacecraft Servicing and Protection Infrastructure and Demand Potential: A Logical Development of the Earth Orbit Economy

The modern world is extremely dependent on thin strings of several hundred civil, military, and commercial spacecraft/satellites currently stationed in space. They provide a steady stream of commerce, defense, and knowledge data. This dependency will in all likelihood increase significantly during this century. A major disruption of any kind in these essential systems and networks could be socially, economically, and politically catastrophic, on a global scale. The development of a space-based, robotic services economy could be useful in mitigating this growing risk, from an efficiency and security standpoint. This paper attempts to suggest what makes sense to invest in next for the logical, economic development of Earth orbit i.e., after ISS completion. It expands on the results of an advanced market research and analysis study that sampled the opinions of several satellite industry executives and presents these results within a broad policy context. The concept of a spacecraft carrier that serves as the nucleus of a national, space-based or on-orbit, robotic services infrastructure is introduced as the next logical step for United States leadership in space. This is viewed as a reasonable and appropriate followon to the development of ELVs and satellites in the 1950s and 1960s, the Space Shuttle/PRLV in the 1970s and 1980s, and the International Space Station (ISS) in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Large-scale experience in LEO-to-GEO spacecraft/satellite servicing and protection by robotic means is assumed to be an indispensable prerequisite or stepping-stone toward the development and preservation of the large scientific exploration facilities that are envisioned by NASA for operation beyond GEO. A balanced, return on national investment (RONI) strategy for space, focused on the provision of enhanced national/homeland security for increased protection, national economic/industrial expansion for increased revenue, and national scientific exploration for increased knowledge is recommended as the next strong, irrepressible goal toward realizing and achieving the official NASA vision and mission.

Horsham, Gary A.↗

Hydrotreating pine-derived catalytic fast pyrolysis oil to jet fuel: Process durability and impact of operating conditions

Hydrotreating woody biomass-derived catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) oil to jet fuel has the potential to enhance energy security due to the large abundance of forest and woody resources. CFP oil produced from pine over ZSM-5 was hydrotreated over sulfided NiMo/Al 2 O 3 for 410 h to study the impact of hydrotreating conditions (pressure, temperature, and weight hourly space velocity (WHSV)). The degree of deoxygenation remained high across the tested hydrotreating conditions, and the products contained < 0.01 wt% oxygen. Increasing hydrotreating pressure from 84 to 125 bar enhanced hydrogenation of aromatic rings and the formation of cycloalkanes and increasing the temperature from 385 to 400 degrees C enhanced cracking and the formation of jet-range molecules. Decreasing the weight hourly space velocity from 0.2 to 0.1 g/(g cat h) further enhanced cracking and led to higher gasoline- and lower jet fuel-range fractions. The highest jet fuel fraction (49 wt%) was obtained at 400 degrees C, 125 bar, 0.2 g/(g cat h) WHSV. CFP oils produced from pine over phosphorous-modified ZSM-5 were hydrotreated at this condition for 588 h to investigate the process durability. The hydrogenation performance of the catalyst gradually stabilized in approximately 300 h after which the product composition remained constant. Of the final hydrotreated CFP oil, 53 wt% fell in the jet fuel range with most of the tested fuel properties meeting ASTM D4054 and/or ASTM D7566 specifications. The freeze points were < -50 degrees C vs. guideline of < -40 degrees C and the viscosities at -20 degrees C were 3.8-4.1 mm 2 /s vs guideline of 8 mm 2 /s. Increasing the fraction of cycloalkanes could increase the cetane number and heating value, which did not meet the guidelines.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Comparison of Cs-137 γ Rays and 320-kV X-Rays in a Mouse Bone Marrow Transplantation Model

US homeland security concerns regarding the potential misuse of some radiation sources used in radiobiological research, for example, cesium-137 ( 137 Cs), have resulted in recommendations by the National Research Council to conduct studies into replacing these sources with suitable X-ray instruments. The objective of this research is to compare the effectiveness of an X-RAD 320 irradiator (PXINC 2010) with a 137 Cs irradiator (Gammacell-1000 Unit) using an established bone marrow chimeric model. Using measured radiation doses for each instrument, we characterized the dose–response relationships for bone marrow and splenocyte ablation, using a cytotoxicity-hazard model. Our results show that the X-RAD 320 photon energy spectrum was suitable for ablating bone marrow at the 3 exposure levels used, similar to that of 137 Cs photons. However, the 320-kV X-rays were not as effective as the much higher energy γ rays at depleting mouse splenocytes. Furthermore, the 3 X-ray levels used were less effective than the higher energy γ rays in allowing the successful engraftment of donor bone marrow, potentially as a result of the incomplete depletion of the spleen cells. More defined studies are warranted for determining whether bone marrow transplantation in mice can be successfully achieved using 320-kV X-rays. A higher X-ray dose then used is likely needed for transplantation success.

320-kV X-rays↗

A Clean Energy Korea by 2035

The current global energy crisis has massive implications for the people and economy of South Korea (Korea), where at least 90% of energy use depends on foreign fossil fuels. Clean electricity accounts for only 39% of total generation, with electricity demand expected to increase 30% by 2035. This study shows that Korea can achieve 80% clean electricity by 2035 by capitalizing on rapid technological improvements and decreasing costs of solar, wind, and battery technology. Doing so would slightly lower electricity supply costs, significantly reduce dependence on imported natural gas and coal, and dramatically cut power sector emissions. Further, this study finds that Korea’s power grid under a clean energy scenario will maintain reliability without coal generation or new natural gas plants. To realize these significant economic, environmental, and energy security benefits, policies such as an 80% clean electricity standard by 2035 and corresponding renewable energy deployment goals are required.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Large-scale offshore wind farm effects on weather and climate in Puerto Rico (Final Technical Report)

Puerto Rico’s current electricity generation heavily relies on imported fossil fuels. This results in an average cost of electricity higher than the U.S. mainland average in all sectors (residential, commercial, and industrial), despite abundant local offshore wind resources, which have the potential to provide secure, low-cost energy generation and consequent economic prosperity. However, effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation resulting from large-scale deployments of offshore wind farms have not been previously studied at tropical latitude. This project addressed this knowledge gap through a computational modeling effort designed to capture the coupled dynamics of the atmosphere and the ocean in presence of offshore wind farms. Results indicate that wind farm wakes can alter wind stress, generate Ekman-driven vertical transport, and potentially affect nutrient distribution. While full model coupling remains challenging, progress in parameterization and large-eddy simulations provides a foundation for future research. The project contributes to DOE’s Earth System modeling efforts and supports STEM workforce development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Subsurface H 2 Storage: A Williston Basin Commercial-Scale Resource Study

Poster for the 2024 NETL Resource Sustainability Project Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, April 2-4, 2024. This poster presents a commercial‑scale assessment of subsurface hydrogen storage potential in the North Dakota portion of the Williston Basin, evaluating saline formations, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, and salt formations. The study integrates laboratory characterization, reservoir simulation, and basinwide analysis to assess storage capacity, injectivity, recovery, and risks related to geochemical, microbial, and wellbore interactions. Results support the feasibility of large‑volume, secure hydrogen storage and provide a framework to guide future hydrogen commercialization and infrastructure development.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Evaluation of Real-Time Mitigation Techniques forCyber Security in IEC 61850 / IEC 62351Substations

This paper presents the design logic and implementation aspects of three potential real-time mitigation techniques capable of countering GOOSE-based attacks: (i) IEC 62351-compliant message authentication code (MAC) scheme, (ii) a semantics-enforced rule- based intrusion detection system (IDS), and (iii) a hybrid approach integrating both MAC verification and Intrusion Detection System (IDS). A comparative evaluation of these real-time mitigation approaches is conducted using a cyber-physical system(CPS) security testbed. The results show that the hybrid integration significantly enhances mitigation capability. Furthermore, the processing delays of all three methods remain within the strict delivery requirements of GOOSE communication. The study also identifies limitations that none of the techniques can fully address, highlighting areas for future work.

Liu, Chen-Ching [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and St↗

European Mobile Satellite Services (EMSS): A regional system for Europe

The European Space Agency is presently procuring two L-band payloads in order to promote a regional system for the provision of European Mobile Satellite Services (EMSS). These are the EMS payload on the Italsat I-F2 satellite and the LLM payload on the ARTEMIS satellite. Telecommunication system studies have been concentrating on mobile applications where full European geographical coverage is required. Potential applications include high priority Private Mobile Radio networks requiring national or European coverage, such as civil security, fire brigades, police and health services, as well as a dedicated system for provision of Air Traffic Services to the civil aviation community. A typical application is an intelligent road traffic management system combining a geographically selective traffic data collection service based on probe vehicles with a geographically selective traffic information broadcast service. Network architectures and bearer services have been developed both for data only and voice/data services. Vehicle mounted mobile transceivers using CDMA access techniques have been developed. The EMSS operational phase will start with the EMS payload in orbit in 1996 and continue with the LLM payload in 1997.

Loisy, C.↗

Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

Imhoff, Marc Lee↗

Federated learning for 2D synchrotron x-ray diffractometry: a cross-institutional approach for phase quantification of Ti–6Al–4V alloy

High-energy Two dimensional (2D) synchrotron x-ray diffractometry provides important insights into the atomistic structure and phase evolution of materials, yet traditional analysis methods remain complex, knowledge-intensive, and computationally demanding. Deep-learning models offer a powerful alternative for automating their analysis. Institutions that hold these datasets may be unwilling to share their data due to privacy and security policies, as well as the challenges associated with large-scale data transfer. As a result, models trained on local datasets often perform well only on their own data but exhibit bias and poor generalization across different instruments or facilities. To overcome these limitations, we explore federated learning (FL) for 2D synchrotron diffractograms, enabling collaborative model training without exchanging raw data. In this study, 2D synchrotron diffractograms of Ti–6Al–4V alloy collected from two independent facilities are used to train convolutional neural networks for predicting the β-phase volume fraction. Experimental results show that federated global models significantly outperform locally trained models in terms of generalization and achieve accuracy comparable to centralized trained models. These findings demonstrate the potential of FL to enable secure, cross-institutional collaboration and enhance the scalability of deep-learning-based materials characterization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Studies in Nuclear and Nucleon Structure, and Neutrino Physics

We have provided training to students in skill sets relevant to job placement in areas of national needs. These trainings are tuned towards placing graduating students in the workforce related to sciences at national laboratories, national security, information systems, and data sciences. The support for undergraduate students will address the academic retention shortfalls by providing opportunities in mentored research experiences.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Securing the Legacy of TESS through the Care and Maintenance of TESS Planet Ephemerides

Much of the science from the exoplanets detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission relies on precisely predicted transit times that are needed for many follow-up characterization studies. We investigate ephemeris deterioration for simulated TESS planets and find that the ephemerides of 81% of those will have expired (i.e., 1σ mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes) 1 yr after their TESS observations. We verify these results using a sample of TESS planet candidates as well. In particular, of the simulated planets that would be recommended as James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) targets by Kempton et al., ∼80% will have midtransit time uncertainties >30 minutes by the earliest time JWST would observe them. This rapid deterioration is driven primarily by the relatively short time baseline of TESS observations. We describe strategies for maintaining TESS ephemerides fresh through follow-up transit observations. We find that the longer the baseline between the TESS and the follow-up observations, the longer the ephemerides stay fresh, and that 51% of simulated primary mission TESS planets will require space-based observations. The recently approved extension to the TESS mission will rescue the ephemerides of most (though not all) primary mission planets, but the benefits of these new observations can only be reaped 2 yr after the primary mission observations. Moreover, the ephemerides of most primary mission TESS planets (as well as those newly discovered during the extended mission) will again have expired by the time future facilities such as the ELTs, Ariel, and the possible LUVOIR/Origins Space Telescope missions come online, unless maintenance follow-up observations are obtained.

Diana Dragomir↗

Considerations for an Integrated UAS CNS Architecture

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) is investigating revolutionary and advanced universal, reliable, always available, cyber secure and affordable Communication, Navigation, Surveillance (CNS) options for all altitudes of UAS operations. In Spring 2015, NASA issued a Call for Proposals under NASA Research Announcements (NRA) NNH15ZEA001N, Amendment 7 Subtopic 2.4. Boeing was selected to conduct a study with the objective to determine the most promising candidate technologies for Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) air-to-air and air-to-ground data exchange and analyze their suitability in a post-NextGen NAS environment. The overall objectives are to develop UAS CNS requirements and then develop architectures that satisfy the requirements for UAS in both controlled and uncontrolled air space. This contract is funded under NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorates (ARMD) Aviation Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) Safe Autonomous Systems Operations (SASO) project and proposes technologies for the Unmanned Air Systems Traffic Management (UTM) service.There is a need for accommodating large-scale populations of Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) in the national air space. Scale obviously impacts capacity planning for Communication, Navitation, and Surveillance (CNS) technologies. For example, can wireless communications data links provide the necessary capacity for accommodating millions of small UASs (sUAS) nationwide? Does the communications network provide sufficient Internet Protocol (IP) address space to allow air traffic control to securely address both UAS teams as a whole as well as individual UAS within each team? Can navigation and surveillance approaches assure safe route planning and safe separation of vehicles even in crowded skies?Our objective is to identify revolutionary and advanced CNS alternatives supporting UASs operating at all altitudes and in all airspace while accurately navigating in the absence of navigational aids. These CNS alternatives must be reliable, redundant, always available, cyber-secure, and affordable for all types of vehicles including small UAS to large transport category aircraft. The approach will identify CNS technology candidates that can meet the needs of the range of UAS missions to specific air traffic management applications where they will be most beneficial and cost effective.

Templin, Fred L.↗

Considerations for an Integrated UAS CNS Architecture

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) is investigating revolutionary and advanced universal, reliable, always available, cyber secure and affordable Communication, Navigation, Surveillance (CNS) options for all altitudes of UAS operations. In Spring 2015, NASA issued a Call for Proposals under NASA Research Announcements (NRA) NNH15ZEA001N, Amendment 7 Subtopic 2.4. Boeing was selected to conduct a study with the objective to determine the most promising candidate technologies for Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) air-to-air and air-to-ground data exchange and analyze their suitability in a post-NextGen NAS environment. The overall objectives are to develop UAS CNS requirements and then develop architectures that satisfy the requirements for UAS in both controlled and uncontrolled air space. This contract is funded under NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorates (ARMD) Aviation Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) Safe Autonomous Systems Operations (SASO) project and proposes technologies for the Unmanned Air Systems Traffic Management (UTM) service.There is a need for accommodating large-scale populations of Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) in the national air space. Scale obviously impacts capacity planning for Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance (CNS) technologies. For example, can wireless communications data links provide the necessary capacity for accommodating millions of small UASs (sUAS) nationwide? Does the communications network provide sufficient Internet Protocol (IP) address space to allow air traffic control to securely address both UAS teams as a whole as well as individual UAS within each team? Can navigation and surveillance approaches assure safe route planning and safe separation of vehicles even in crowded skies?Our objective is to identify revolutionary and advanced CNS alternatives supporting UASs operating at all altitudes and in all airspace while accurately navigating in the absence of navigational aids. These CNS alternatives must be reliable, redundant, always available, cyber-secure, and affordable for all types of vehicles including small UAS to large transport category aircraft. The approach will identify CNS technology candidates that can meet the needs of the range of UAS missions to specific air traffic management applications where they will be most beneficial and cost effective.

Templin, Fred L.↗