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At least 595 records · Page 33

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

Hansen, James E.↗

Site Selection and Deployment Scenarios for Servicing of Deep-Space Observatories

The deep-space environment and relative transportation accessibility of the Weak Stability Boundary (WSB) region connecting the Earth-Moon and Sun-Earth libration points makes the Sun-Earth L2 an attractive operating location for future observatories. A summary is presented of key characteristics of future observatories designed to operate in this region. The ability to service observatories that operate within the region around the Lagrange points may greatly enhance their reliability, lifetime, and scientific return. The range of servicing missions might begin with initial deployment, assembly, test, and checkout. Post-assembly servicing missions might also include maintenance and repair, critical fluids resupply, and instrument upgrades. We define the range of servicing missions that can be performed with extravehicular activity, with teleoperated robots, and with autonomous robots. We then describe deployment scenarios that affect payload design. A trade study is summarized of the benefits and risks of alternative servicing sites, including at the International Space Station, at other low-Earth-orbit locations, at the Earth-Moon L1 location, and on-site at the Sun-Earth L2 location. Required technology trades and development issues for observatory servicing at each site, and with each level of autonomy, are summarized.

Willenberg, Harvey J.↗

Tactical Versus Strategic Behavior: General Aviation Piloting in Convective Weather Scenarios

We commonly describe environments and behavioral responses to environmental conditions as 'tactical' and 'strategic.' However theoretical research defining relevant environmental characteristics is rare, as are empirical investigations that would inform such theory. This paper discusses General Aviation (GA) pilots' descriptions of tactical/strategic conditions with respect to weather flying, and evaluates their ratings along a tactical/strategic scale in response to real convective weather scenarios experienced during a flight experiment with different weather information cues. Perceived risk was significantly associated with ratings for all experimental conditions. In addition, environmental characteristics were found to be predictive of ratings for Traditional IMC (instrument meteorological conditions), i.e., aural weather information only, and Traditional VMC (visual meteorological conditions), i.e., aural information and an external view. The paper also presents subjects' comments regarding use of Graphical Weather Information Systems (GWISs) to support tactical and strategic weather flying decisions and concludes with implications for the design and use of GWISs.

Latorella, Kara A.↗

Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.↗

Pilot Interactions in an Over-Constrained Conflict Scenario as Studied in a Piloted Simulation of Autonomous Aircraft Operations

Feasibility and safety of autonomous aircraft operations were studied in a multi-piloted simulation of overconstrained traffic conflicts to determine the need for, and utility of, priority flight rules to maintain safety in this extraordinary and potentially hazardous situation. An overconstrained traffic conflict is one in which the separation assurance objective is incompatible with other objectives. In addition, a proposed scheme for implementing priority flight rules by staggering the alerting time between the two aircraft in conflict was tested for effectiveness. The feasibility study was conducted through a simulation in the Air Traffic Operations Laboratory at the NASA Langley Research Center. This research activity is a continuation of the Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management feasibility analysis reported in the 4th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar in December 2001 (paper #48). The over-constrained conflict scenario studied here consisted of two piloted aircraft that were assigned an identical en-route waypoint arrival time and altitude crossing restriction. The simulation results indicated that the pilots safely resolved the conflict without the need for a priority flight rule system. Occurrences of unnecessary maneuvering near the common waypoint were traced to false conflict alerts, generated as the result of including waypoint constraint information in the broadcast data link message issued from each aircraft. This result suggests that, in the conservative interests of safety, broadcast intent information should be based on the commanded trajectory and not on the Flight Management System flight plan, to which the aircraft may not actually adhere. The use of priority flight rules had no effect on the percentage of the aircraft population meeting completely predictable which aircraft in a given pair would meet the constraints and which aircraft would make the first maneuver to yield right-of-way. Therefore, the proposed scheme for implementing priority flight rules through staggering the alerting time between the two aircraft was completely effective. The data and observations from this experiment, together with results from the previously reported study, support the feasibility of autonomous aircraft operations.

Wing, David J.↗

Radiation Protection for Lunar Mission Scenarios

Preliminary analyses of shielding requirements to protect astronauts from the harmful effects of radiation on both short-term and long-term lunar missions have been performed. Shielding needs for both solar particle events (SPEs) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure are discussed for transit vehicles and surface habitats. This work was performed under the aegis of two NASA initiatives. The first study was an architecture trade study led by Langley Research Center (LaRC) in which a broad range of vehicle types and mission scenarios were compared. The radiation analysis for this study primarily focused on the additional shielding mass required to protect astronauts from the rare occurrence of a large SPE. The second study, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), involved the design of lunar habitats. Researchers at LaRC were asked to evaluate the changes to mission architecture that would be needed if the surface stay were lengthened from a shorter mission duration of 30 to 90 days to a longer stay of 500 days. Here, the primary radiation concern was GCR exposure. The methods used for these studies as well as the resulting shielding recommendations are discussed. Recommendations are also made for more detailed analyses to minimize shielding mass, once preliminary vehicle and habitat designs have been completed. Here, methodologies are mapped out and available radiation analysis tools are described. Since, as yet, no dosimetric limits have been adopted for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO), radiation exposures are compared to LEO limits. Uncertainties associated with the LEO career effective dose limits and the effects of lowering these limits on shielding mass are also discussed.

Clowdsley, Martha S.↗

Application of State Analysis and Goal-Based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the behavior of states and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

mission planning↗

Piloted Simulation of Various Synthetic Vision Systems Terrain Portrayal and Guidance Symbology Concepts for Low Altitude En-Route Scenario

In support of the NASA Aviation Safety Program's Synthetic Vision Systems Project, a series of piloted simulations were conducted to explore and quantify the relationship between candidate Terrain Portrayal Concepts and Guidance Symbology Concepts, specific to General Aviation. The experiment scenario was based on a low altitude en route flight in Instrument Metrological Conditions in the central mountains of Alaska. A total of 18 general aviation pilots, with three levels of pilot experience, evaluated a test matrix of four terrain portrayal concepts and six guidance symbology concepts. Quantitative measures included various pilot/aircraft performance data, flight technical errors and flight control inputs. The qualitative measures included pilot comments and pilot responses to the structured questionnaires such as perceived workload, subjective situation awareness, pilot preferences, and the rare event recognition. There were statistically significant effects found from guidance symbology concepts and terrain portrayal concepts but no significant interactions between them. Lower flight technical errors and increased situation awareness were achieved using Synthetic Vision Systems displays, as compared to the baseline Pitch/Roll Flight Director and Blue Sky Brown Ground combination. Overall, those guidance symbology concepts that have both path based guidance cue and tunnel display performed better than the other guidance concepts.

Takallu, M. A.↗

The Width of a Solar Coronal Mass Ejection and the Source of the Driving Magnetic Explosion: A Test of the Standard Scenario for CME Production

We show that the strength (B(sub F1are)) of the magnetic field in the area covered by the flare arcade following a CME-producing ejective solar eruption can be estimated from the final angular width (Final Theta(sub CME)) of the CME in the outer corona and the final angular width (Theta(sub Flare)) of the flare arcade: B(sub Flare) approx. equals 1.4[(Final Theta(sub CME)/Theta(sub Flare)] (exp 2)G. We assume (1) the flux-rope plasmoid ejected from the flare site becomes the interior of the CME plasmoid; (2) in the outer corona (R > 2 (solar radius)) the CME is roughly a "spherical plasmoid with legs" shaped like a lightbulb; and (3) beyond some height in or below the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure balance with the surrounding magnetic field. The strength of the nearly radial magnetic field in the outer corona is estimated from the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Ulysses. We apply this model to three well-observed CMEs that exploded from flare regions of extremely different size and magnetic setting. One of these CMEs was an over-and-out CME, that is, in the outer corona the CME was laterally far offset from the flare-marked source of the driving magnetic explosion. In each event, the estimated source-region field strength is appropriate for the magnetic setting of the flare. This agreement (1) indicates that CMEs are propelled by the magnetic field of the CME plasmoid pushing against the surrounding magnetic field; (2) supports the magnetic-arch-blowout scenario for over-and-out CMEs; and (3) shows that a CME's final angular width in the outer corona can be estimated from the amount of magnetic flux covered by the source-region flare arcade.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

Rationale, Scenarios, and Profiles for the Application of the Internet Protocol Suite (IPS) in Space Operations

This greenbook captures some of the current, planned and possible future uses of the Internet Protocol (IP) as part of Space Operations. It attempts to describe how the Internet Protocol is used in specific scenarios. Of primary focus is low-earth-orbit space operations, which is referred to here as the design reference mission (DRM). This is because most of the program experience drawn upon derives from this type of mission. Application profiles are provided. This includes parameter settings programs have proposed for sending IP datagrams over CCSDS links, the minimal subsets and features of the IP protocol suite and applications expected for interoperability between projects, and the configuration, operations and maintenance of these IP functions. Of special interest is capturing the lessons learned from the Constellation Program in this area, since that program included a fairly ambitious use of the Internet Protocol.

Benbenek, Daniel B.↗

Thermal Performance Expectations of the Advanced Stirling Convertor Over a Range of Operating Scenarios

Objectives of this work are: (1) Assist the Science Mission Directorate in developing technologies for space missions. (2) Explore the capability of computational modeling to assist in the development of the Advanced Stirling Convertor. (3) Baseline computational simulation with available experimental data of the ASC. (4) Calculate peak external pressure vessel wall temperatures and compare them with anticipated values. (5) Calculated peak magnet temperature inside the ASC over a range of operational scenarios.

Reid, Terry V.↗

Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Solutions to Flat Plate Film Cooling Scenarios

The predictions of several Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solutions for a baseline film cooling geometry are analyzed and compared with experimental data. The Fluent finite volume code was used to perform the computations with the realizable k-epsilon turbulence model. The film hole was angled at 35 to the crossflow with a Reynolds number of 17,400. Multiple length-to-diameter ratios (1.75 and 3.5) as well as momentum flux ratios (0.125 and 0.5) were simulated with various domains, boundary conditions, and grid refinements. The coolant to mainstream density ratio was maintained at 2.0 for all scenarios. Computational domain and boundary condition variations show the ability to reduce the computational cost as compared to previous studies. A number of grid refinement and coarsening variations are compared for further insights into the reduction of computational cost. Liberal refinement in the near hole region is valuable, especially for higher momentum jets that tend to lift-off and create a recirculating flow. A lack of proper refinement in the near hole region can severely diminish the accuracy of the solution, even in the far region. The effects of momentum ratio and hole length-to-diameter ratio are also discussed.

Johnson, Perry L.↗

Mission Scenario Development Workbench

The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

Kordon, Mark↗

A "Warm Formamide" Scenario for the Origins of Life Might not be so Hot: Comment on "Formamide and the Origin of Life"

In this review, Saladino et al. present an intriguing hypothesis surrounding the role of formamide in the origins of life on Earth, backed by experimental results supporting each step from formamide to RNA polymers. The overall premise is that, from formamide and inorganic phosphate, RNA molecules over 100 nucleotides in length can be produced. In addition, many carboxylic acids likely relevant to prebiotic metabolism, are formed along the way. Thus, from a rather simple organic molecule that has been observed in outer space (formamide), you can generate many of the compounds necessary for the origins of life. However, because high temperatures (160 C) are required for the formamide reactions, it remains unclear where the "warm formamide" scenario could have occurred. Low-temperature, aqueous hydrogen cyanide-based prebiotic chemistry that we know actually happened has been shown to produce many of the molecules invoked in the formamide hypothesis: amino acids, carboxylic acids, sugar acids, and nucleobases have all been found in meteorites recovered on Earth, providing a plausible route for their synthesis and delivery. In contrast, a large portion of the formamide hypothesis is based on relatively hightemperature reactions, A plausible milieu for high-temperature reactions with concentrated formamide is yet to be described, and is critical for this hypothesis to be validated. Hydrothermal vents are attractive heat sources, and the higher boiling point of formamide has been invoked as a mechanism to concentrate it from an aqueous solution, Unless the water can actually evaporate, however, there would be no net enrichment. For example, in the context of a deep-sea vent, any water "removed" by heating would be quickly replaced. Some of the individual reactions underpinning the present hypothesis have been met with skepticism because they go against conventional wisdom, To name a few of the surprising results: the observation that nucleosides can be converted to cyclic phosphates when heated in the presence of minerals and inorganie phosphate; that 3'-5' cGMP and cAMP nucleotides polymerize rapidly into RNA oligomers, even in the absence of monovalent counterions and that end-to-end ligation reactions between RNA oligomers occur in essentially pure water, without requiring any activating groups or counterions. Because the polymerization reactions are simply transesterification reactions, that they readily occur in the absence of cations makes one wonder why nearly all ribozyme-catalyzed transesterification reactions are metal-ion dependent; similarly, that the end-to-end ligation reactions do not require activation runs counter to the observation that all protein-catalyzed ligation and polymerization reactions of RNA and DNA require activated substrates. Detailed mechanistic studies of the reported reactions are warranted and could provide important insights for understanding the chemistry behind the origins of life. Because the authors have produced many of the experimental results supporting their hypothesis, they could demonstrate the validity of their hypothesis by converting formamide into approx 100 nucleotide RNA oligomers, using the products of one reaction as the reactants for the next reaction, under specific conditions plausible on the pre-biotic Earth. Such a demonstration would represent a milestone for our understanding of the origins of life.

Burton, Aaron S.↗

A 'Warm Formamide' Scenario for the Origins of Life Might Not Be so Hot Comment on 'Formamide and the Origin of Life' by E. Di Mauro Et Al.

In this review, Saladino et al. present an intriguing hypothesis surrounding the role of formamide in the originsof life on Earth, backed by experimental results supporting each step from formamide to RNA polymers [1]. The overall premise is that, from formamide and inorganic phosphate, RNA molecules over 100 nucleotides in length canbe produced. In addition, many carboxylic acids likely relevant to prebiotic metabolism are formed along the way. Thus, from a rather simple organic molecule that has been observed in outer space (formamide), you can generatemany of the compounds necessary for the origins of life. However, because high temperatures (160 C) are requiredfor the formamide reactions, it remains unclear where the warm formamide scenario could have occurred.Low-temperature, aqueous hydrogen counter to the observation that all protein-catalyzed ligation and polymerization reactions of RNA and DNA requireactivated substrates. Detailed mechanistic studies of the reported reactions are warranted and could provide important insights for understanding the chemistry behind the origins of life.Because the authors have produced many of the experimental results supporting their hypothesis, they coulddemonstrate the validity of their hypothesis by converting formamide into 100 nucleotide RNA oligomers, usingthe products of one reaction as the reactants for the next reaction, under specific conditions plausible on the pre-bioticEarth. Such a demonstration would represent a milestone for our understanding of the origins of life.cyanide-based prebiotic chemistry that we know actually happened has beenshown to produce many of the molecules invoked in the formamide hypothesis: amino acids, carboxylic acids, sugaracids, and nucleobases have all been found in meteorites recovered on Earth [e.g. [24]], providing a plausible routefor their synthesis and delivery. In contrast, a large portion of the formamide hypothesis is based on relatively high-temperature reactions. A plausible milieu for high-temperature reactions with concentrated formamide is yet to bedescribed, and is critical for this hypothesis to be validated. Hydrothermal vents are attractive heat sources, and the higher boiling point of formamide has been invoked as a mechanism to concentrate it from an aqueous solution.Unless the water can actually evaporate, however, there would be no net enrichment. For example, in the context of a deep-sea vent, any water removed by heating would be quickly replaced.Some of the individual reactions underpinning the present hypothesis [1] have been met with skepticism becausethey go against conventional wisdom. To name a few of the surprising results: the observation that nucleosides can beconverted to cyclic phosphates when heated in the presence of minerals and inorganic phosphate [5]; that 35 cGMPand cAMP nucleotides polymerize rapidly into RNA oligomers, even in the absence of monovalent counterions [6];and that end-to-end ligation reactions between RNA oligomers occur in essentially pure water, without requiring any activating groups or counterions [7,8]. Because the polymerization reactions are simply transesterification reactions,that they readily occur in the absence of cations makes one wonder why nearly all ribozyme-catalyzed transesterification reactions are metal-ion dependent; similarly, that the end-to-end ligation reactions do not require activation runs.

life↗

Case Study: Influences of Uncertainties and Traffic Scenario Difficulties in a Human-in-the-Loop Simulation

This paper presents a case study of how factors such as wind prediction errors and metering delays can influence controller performance and workload in Human-In-The-Loop simulations. Retired air traffic controllers worked two arrival sectors adjacent to the terminal area. The main tasks were to provide safe air traffic operations and deliver the aircraft to the metering fix within +/- 25 seconds of the scheduled arrival time with the help of provided decision support tools. Analyses explore the potential impact of metering delays and system uncertainties on controller workload and performance. The results suggest that trajectory prediction uncertainties impact safety performance, while metering fix accuracy and workload appear subject to the scenario difficulty.

air traffic control↗