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At least 595 records · Page 33

A decision model for planetary missions

Many techniques developed for the solution of problems in economics and operations research are directly applicable to problems involving engineering trade-offs. This paper investigates the use of utility theory for decision making in planetary exploration space missions. A decision model is derived that accounts for the objectives of the mission - science - the cost of flying the mission and the risk of mission failure. A simulation methodology for obtaining the probability distribution of science value and costs as a function spacecraft and mission design is presented and an example application of the decision methodology is given for various potential alternatives in a comet Encke mission.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

Overview of the carbon fiber problem

Carbon fibers (CF) composite structures are being utilized more as alternatives to metals in both civilian and military applications. They are valued for their light weight and high strength as well as for their ease of designing structures with specific shapes and sizes. However, a problem may exist due to the high conductivity of CF. CF are manufactured from a precursor material which is subjected to great stress and heat treatment causing a change in the physical and electrical properties. The fibers are bound together by a matrix of epoxy. In the event of fire (aircraft accident) the epoxy would burn away releasing these fibers into the atmosphere. When these fibers come in contact with electronic equipment, they might cause damage to by settling on electrical junctions. An overview is given of the objectives for a study, and the approach and methodology developed for determination of risk profiles.

Source record↗

Microgravity sensitivities for Space Station ECLS subsystems

This report presents a review of the Space Station Environmental Control and Life Support subsystems (ECLSS) for sensitivity to low gravity environments. The object of this review is to categorize sensitivity areas and to quantify the risks. This review addresses all processes from a top level view and then examines in more detail those areas which were considered potential risks. The study has concentrated on the primary function of the subsystems which may be significant to the performance of the particular component and does not address integration of the subsystem and/or the mechanical aspects of the designs. The areas of primary concern were the Atmosphere Revitalization (AR), Water Recovery and Management (WRM), and the Waste Management (WM) subsystems.

Bangham, M. E.↗

Coordinated Field Campaigns in Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico

NASA's GEOstationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission concept recommended by the U.S. National Research Council (2007) focuses on measurements of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols and aquatic coastal ecology and biogeochemistry from geostationary orbit (35,786 km altitude). Two GEO-CAPE-sponsored multi-investigator ship-based field campaigns were conducted to coincide with the NASA Earth Venture Suborbital project DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) field campaigns: (1) Chesapeake Bay in July 2011 and (2) northwestern Gulf of Mexico in September 2013. Goal: to evaluate whether GEO-CAPE coastal mission measurement and instrument requirements are optimized to address science objectives while minimizing ocean color satellite sensor complexity, size and cost - critical mission risk reduction activities. NASA continues to support science studies related to the analysis of data collected as part of these coordinated field campaigns and smaller efforts.

GoMex↗

Lunar Advanced Volatile Analysis Subsystem: Pressure Transducer Trade Study

In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) is a key factor in paving the way for the future of human space exploration. The ability to harvest resources on foreign astronomical objects to produce consumables and propellant offers potential reduction in mission cost and risk. Through previous missions, the existence of water ice at the poles of the moon has been identified, however the feasibility of water extraction for resources remains unanswered. The Resource Prospector (RP) mission is currently in development to provide ground truth, and will enable us to characterize the distribution of water at one of the lunar poles. Regolith & Environment Science and Oxygen & Lunar Volatile Extraction (RESOLVE) is the primary payload on RP that will be used in conjunction with a rover. RESOLVE contains multiple instruments for systematically identifying the presence of water. The main process involves the use of two systems within RESOLVE: the Oxygen Volatile Extraction Node (OVEN) and Lunar Advanced Volatile Analysis (LAVA). Within the LAVA subsystem, there are multiple calculations that depend on accurate pressure readings. One of the most important instances where pressure transducers (PT) are used is for calculating the number of moles in a gas transfer from the OVEN subsystem. As a critical component of the main process, a mixture of custom and commercial off the shelf (COTS) PTs are currently being tested in the expected operating environment to eventually down select an option for integrated testing in the LAVA engineering test unit (ETU).

Kang, Edward Shinuk↗

Building an Economical and Sustainable Lunar Infrastructure to Enable Human Lunar Missions

To enable return of human missions to the surface of the Moon sustainably, a new study was initiated to assess the feasibility of developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable lunar surface infrastructure using a public-private partnerships approach. This approach would establish partnerships between NASA and private industry to mutually develop lunar surface infrastructure capabilities to support robotic missions initially and later evolve to full-scale commercial infrastructure services in support of human missions. These infrastructure services may range from power systems, communication and navigation systems, thermal management systems, mobility systems, water and propellant production to life support systems for human habitats. The public-private partnerships approach for this study leverages best practices from NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program which introduced a new innovative and economical approach for partnering with industry to develop commercial cargo transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS). In this approach, NASA and industry partners shared cost and risk throughout the development phase which led to dramatically reducing development and operations costs of these transportation services. Following this approach, a Lunar COTS concept was conceived to follow this model and gradually develop cost-effective surface infrastructure capabilities in partnership with industry to provide economical, operational services for small-scale robotic missions. To support human missions, this work has now been extended to analyze full-scale lunar infrastructure systems. This infrastructure system will have capabilities to support human missions from a few days to several months and will also maximize the use of existing lunar resources, such as, water from ice deposits at the lunar poles. The plan includes a gradual buildup of these capabilities using a phased-development approach that will eventually lead to operational infrastructure services. By partnering with industry to develop and operate the infrastructure services using the COTS model, this plan will also result in significant cost savings, reduced risk and increased reliability. This paper will describe the Lunar COTS concept goals, objectives and approach for developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable human lunar infrastructure as well as the challenges and opportunities for development.

Lunar Surface Systems↗

Assessing the Number of Crew for Mars Against Trade Space Parameters

Missions to Mars will differ from all previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner given the long communication delays on Mars missions. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk in that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, the crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise in the Mission Control Central (MCC) team on which NASA has come to rely. We present a framework for trade space analysis along with results from human-performance models developed in IMPRINT. We discuss the implications of model results on the trade space for number of crew for missions to Mars. This work was funded by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) with support from NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP).

Donna Dempsey↗

Gains in operational flexibility, safety margins, and cost efficiencies via integrated Plant Reload Optimization platform

The U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway Plant Reload Optimization Project aims to develop an integrated, comprehensive framework offering an all-in-one solution for reload evaluations with a special focus on optimizing core design. Optimizing the fuel loading pattern is one of the most important considerations in reducing the amount of new fuel used in the core. Due to thousands of possible core configuration options, finding optimal solutions is an unachievable task for a human. The Plant ReLoad Optimization platform, which supports artificial-intelligence-based reactor core designing, is now fully capable of handling realistic problems. The Plant ReLoad Optimization platform development project aims to build a reactor core design tool that includes reactor safety and fuel performance analyses and uses artificial intelligence to support the optimization of core design solutions. The NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) optimizer was developed and tested within RAVEN (Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment) to handle many constraints by using an augmented objectives methodology. The demonstration was performed with constrained multiobjective optimization of a 17 × 17 pressurized-water reactor core loading patterns to minimize fuel cost and maximize fuel cycle length.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for deploying new batches of these satellites often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in transecting orbits that have the potential to cross other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are added and old satellites are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have on future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of realistic future scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical satellite constellations, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure, as well as station-keeping. The simulation can be customized to accommodate different methods of calculating the probability of collision, as well as the process for determining probability ellipsoids and screening volumes. This makes it possible to replicate, and compare, different processes used by different spacecraft operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. As the model is run forward in time, each conjunction event is recorded, allowing for the analysis of statistics and meta-data related to these events, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, such as whether are they active or passive objects, what size are the two objects, and who owns the objects (if known). This information makes it possible to characterize how changes to the status quo affect the number and type of conjunctions that occur, as well as the distributional effects on various types of satellite operators. To assess the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments, approximately 60,000 new large constellation satellites were considered, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 7800 known resident space objects (RSOs), over a simulation period of one year. The results indicate that the future space environment will introduce a non-linear increase in conjunction events as the number of RSOs also increase. This will require adjustments to spacecraft fuel budgets in order to conduct the avoidance maneuvers necessary to minimize collision risk, both for existing and new satellites. This increase is due in large part to the higher density of RSOs and the overlap between some constellation orbits. Current catalog objects were shown to require three times more ∆V for collision avoidance (CA) maneuvers in the simulated future environment, and some constellation spacecraft were estimated to devote the majority of their annual ∆V to CA. The impact of small satellites was found to be proportional for the current space environment, and actually decreased in terms of percentage for the future scenario, suggesting that small satellites do not pose an outsized collision risk. Lastly, transecting satellites were found to contribute thousands of additional conjunctions outside of their operational orbit, and may require up to an additional 5% in CA maneuver fuel allocation.

conjunction assessment↗

Single track effects, Biostack and risk assessment

The scientific career of Prof. Bucker has spanned a very exciting period in the fledgling science of Space Radiation Biology. The capability for placing biological objects in space was developed, and the methods for properly packaging, retrieving and analyzing them were worked out. Meaningful results on the effects of radiation were obtained for the first time. In fact, many of the successful techniques and methodologies for handling biological samples were developed in Prof. Bucker's laboratories, as attested by the extensive Biostack program. He was the first to suggest and successfully carry out experiments in space directly aimed at measuring effects of single tracks of high-energy heavy galactic cosmic rays by specifically identifying whether or not the object had been hit by a heavy particle track. Because the "hit" frequencies of heavy galactic cosmic rays to cell nuclei in the bodies of space travelers will be low, it is expected that any effects to humans on the cellular level will be dominated by single-track cell traversals. This includes the most important generally recognized late effect of space radiation exposure: radiation-induced cancer. This paper addresses the single-track nature of the space radiation environment, and points out the importance of single "hits" in the evaluation of radiation risk for long-term missions occurring outside the earth's magnetic field. A short review is made of biological objects found to show increased effects when "hit" by a single heavy charged-particle in space. A brief discussion is given of the most provocative results from the bacterial spore Bacillus subtilis: experimental evidence that tracks can affect biological systems at much larger distances from the trajectory than previously suspected, and that the resultant inactivation cross section in space calculated for this system is very large. When taken at face value, the implication of these results, when compared to those from experiments performed at ground-based accelerators with beams at low energies in the same LET range, is that high-energy particles can exert their influence a surprising distance from their trajectory and the inactivation cross sections are some 20 times larger than expected. Clearly, beams from high-energy heavy-ion accelerators should be used to confirm these results. For those end points that can also be caused by low-LET beams such as high-energy protons, it is important to measure their action cross sections as well. The ratio of the cross sections for a high-LET beam to that of a low-LET beam is an interesting experimental ratio and, we suggest, of more intrinsic interest than the RBE (Relative Biological Effectiveness). It is a measure of the "biological" importance of one particle type relative to another particle type. This ratio will be introduced and given the name RPPE (Relative Per Particle Effectiveness). Values of RPPE have appeared in the literature and will be discussed. A rather well-known value of this quantity (13,520) has been suggested for the RPPE of high-energy iron ions to high-energy protons. This value was suggested by Letaw et al. Nature 330, 709-710 (1987)] we will call it the Letaw limit. It will be discussed in terms of the importance of the heavy-ion component vs light-ion component of the galactic cosmic rays. It is also pointed out, however, that there may be unique effects from single tracks of heavy ions that do not occur from light-ion tracks. For such effects, the concepts of both RBE and RPPE lose their meaning.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA’s Space Sustainability Strategy: An Overview and a Conceptual Framework for Implementation

Space sustainability is crucial for the continuation of humanity's exploration and utilization of space. NASA recognizes the imperative of maintaining a sustainable space operating environment to safeguard the future of space activities. On April 9, 2024, NASA released its first part of an integrated Space Sustainability Strategy focused on the domain of earth orbit, with future volumes to address impacts of space operations on earth itself; cislunar space, including the Lagrange points and the lunar surface; and deep space, including other celestial bodies. This commitment extends to ensuring the safety of astronauts conducting operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), as well as enabling missions to the Moon and Mars. Moreover, sustainable space practices are essential for the uninterrupted operation of NASA's robotic science missions, which monitor Earth's changes and probe the mysteries of the universe. The strategy sets out a set of goals, the first of which is to establish a framework for assessing space sustainability at NASA, addressing the absence of a universally accepted framework with key metrics that promotes understanding of how metrics are interconnected. This framework will provide a basis for evaluating the sustainability of orbital activities, with metrics informed by input from the domestic and international space community. Objectives under this goal include defining key parameters affecting space sustainability, determining tolerable levels of risk, and annually publishing NASA's effect on space sustainability, including compliance with orbital debris mitigation standards. The subsequent goals build upon this foundation, identifying effective actions for enhancing space sustainability, incentivizing adoption of these actions through technology development and policy changes, and ensuring coordination with the global space community. An organizational change within NASA is also proposed to facilitate day-to-day coordination and accountability for space sustainability efforts. By pursuing these goals, NASA aims to strengthen the technical foundations of and continue to set an example for sustainable space operations. Regular evaluation of NASA mission performance in context with meeting sustainability objectives will ensure alignment with evolving challenges in the space operating environment.

Matt Forsbacka↗

Application of Banking Scoring and Rating for Coherent Risk Measures in Electricity Systems ABSCORES

This project developed a framework for asset and system risk management that can be incorporated into current electricity system operations to improve economic efficiency and establish an Electric Assets Risk Bureau. We leveraged scoring and ratings from banking and financial institutions alongside current optimization methods in dispatching power systems to help system operators and electricity markets schedule resources. This approach is based on the observation that there are major discrepancies between the power scheduled by a system operator and the actual power generated/consumed. These discrepancies—exacerbated by unplanned contingencies (e.g., natural disasters)—are caused by multiple factors, including the different financial, environmental and risk preferences of power producers, consumers, and aggregators. We developed a framework that counteracts two failures in electricity system operations: imperfect information and missing markets for products. The technical approach included five tasks. Tasks 1 and 2 supported the development of risk scores at the asset level with historical data collected for this project. Tasks 3, 4, and 5 incorporated scoring into decision-making at the system level. The proposed effort achieved PERFORM's Program Objectives because the proposed outputs and algorithms do not exist in the electricity industry and are an innovative approach to managing risk. Since the acknowledged need to better assess and act upon risk profiles for grid assets has not been met by the industry, this project will also impact ARPA-E's Mission Areas, including improving energy efficiency and giving the U.S. a technological lead in advanced energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment for the Hypothetical PDC17 Impact Exercise

Performing impact risk assessment for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC17) hypothetical impact exercise, to take place at the PDC17 conference, May 15-20, 2017. Impact scenarios and trajectories are developed and provided by NASA's Near Earth Objects Office at JPL (Paul Chodas). These results represent purely hypothetical impact scenarios, and do not reflect any known asteroid threat. Risk assessment was performed using the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model developed by the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) at NASA Ames Research Center. This presentation includes sample results that may be presented or used in discussions during the various stages of the impact exercisecenter dot Some cases represent alternate scenario options that may not be used during the actual impact exercise at the PDC17 conference. Updates to these initial assessments and/or additional scenario assessments may be performed throughout the impact exercise as different scenario options unfold.

Asteroid Impact Risk↗

An Independent Evaluation of the FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis Alternative Study

The present instruments of safety and reliability risk control for a majority of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs/projects consist of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Critical Items List (CIL), and Hazard Report (HR). This extensive analytical approach was introduced in the early 1970's and was implemented for the Space Shuttle Program by NHB 5300.4 (1D-2. Since the Challenger accident in 1986, the process has been expanded considerably and resulted in introduction of similar and/or duplicated activities in the safety/reliability risk analysis. A study initiated in 1995, to search for an alternative to the current FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis methodology generated a proposed method on April 30, 1996. The objective of this Summer Faculty Study was to participate in and conduct an independent evaluation of the proposed alternative to simplify the present safety and reliability risk control procedure.

Ray, Paul S.↗

Heliocentric Escape and Lunar Impact from Near Rectilinear Halo Orbits

Spacecraft departing from the Gateway in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) experience gravitational forces from the Moon, the Earth, and the Sun, all of which can be simultaneously significant. These complex dynamics influence the post-separation risk of recontact with the Gateway and the eventual destinations of the departing spacecraft. The current investigation examines the flow of objects leaving NRHOs in the Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem, and results are applied to heliocentric escape and lunar impact trajectories in a higher-fidelity ephemeris model. Separation maneuver magnitude, direction, and location are correlated with risk of recontact with the Gateway and successful departure to various destinations.

Davis, Diane C.↗

NASA Lewis Launch Collision Probability Model Developed and Analyzed

There are nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the earth. These objects encompass manned objects, active and decommissioned satellites, spent rocket bodies, and debris. They range from a few centimeters across to the size of the MIR space station. Anytime a new satellite is launched, the launch vehicle with its payload attached passes through an area of space in which these objects orbit. Although the population density of these objects is low, there always is a small but finite probability of collision between the launch vehicle and one or more of these space objects. Even though the probability of collision is very low, for some payloads even this small risk is unacceptable. To mitigate the small risk of collision associated with launching at an arbitrary time within the daily launch window, NASA performs a prelaunch mission assurance Collision Avoidance Analysis (or COLA). For the COLA of the Cassini spacecraft, the NASA Lewis Research Center conducted an in-house development and analysis of a model for launch collision probability. The model allows a minimum clearance criteria to be used with the COLA analysis to ensure an acceptably low probability of collision. If, for any given liftoff time, the nominal launch vehicle trajectory would pass a space object with less than the minimum required clearance, launch would not be attempted at that time. The model assumes that the nominal positions of the orbiting objects and of the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time, and therefore, that any tracked object that comes within close proximity of the launch vehicle can be identified. For any such pair, these nominal positions can be used to calculate a nominal miss distance. The actual miss distances may differ substantially from the nominal miss distance, due, in part, to the statistical uncertainty of the knowledge of the objects positions. The model further assumes that these position uncertainties can be described with position covariance matrices. With these, and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution for the probability of collision is obtained. This solution provides clear insights into how each of the independent parameters affects the probability of collision. It shows that for a given maximum probability of collision and prior knowledge of the objects position uncertainties and sizes, only knowledge of the nominal closest approach distance is required to make the launch/no launch decision. The model was completed and used for the mission assurance COLA analysis for the Cassini spacecraft, which was launched on a Titan IV/Centaur rocket on October 15, 1997. Although the model was specifically developed for the Cassini mission, it is clearly applicable for other launches as well. The effect of COLA closures on the launch window is shown. The bar represents the entire 140-min launch window on October 15, 1997; the blackened areas represent the loss of launch opportunities due to the potential for a collision with an orbiting object.

Bollenbacher, Gary↗

The role of small missions in planetary and lunar exploration

The Space Studies Board of the National Research Council charged its Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration (COMPLEX) to (1) examine the degree to which small missions, such as those fitting within the constraints of the Discovery program, can achieve priority objectives in the lunar and planetary sciences; (2) determine those characteristics, such as level of risk, flight rate, target mix, university involvement, technology development, management structure and procedures, and so on, that could allow a successful program; (3) assess issues, such as instrument selection, mission operations, data analysis, and data archiving, to ensure the greatest scientific return from a particular mission, given a rapid deployment schedule and a tightly constrained budget; and (4) review past programmatic attempts to establish small planetary science mission lines, including the Planetary Observers and Planetary Explorers, and consider the impact management practices have had on such programs. A series of small missions presents the planetary science community with the opportunity to expand the scope of its activities and to develop the potential and inventiveness of its members in ways not possible within the confines of large, traditional programs. COMPLEX also realized that a program of small planetary missions was, in and of itself, incapable of meeting all of the prime objectives contained in its report 'An Integrated Strategy for the Planetary Sciences: 1995-2010.' Recommendations are provided for the small planetary missions to fulfill their promise.

Source record↗

Programmatic Considerations to Reduce the Risk of Adverse Renal Stone Events in Spaceflight

Introduction: Microgravity exposure may alter the likelihood that astronauts will experience renal stones. The potential risk includes both acute and chronic health issues, with the potential for significant impact on mission objectives. Methods: To understand the role of the NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) research agenda in both preventing and addressing renal stones in spaceflight, current astronaut epidemiologic data and a summary of programmatic considerations are reviewed. Results: Although there has never been a symptomatic renal stone event in a U.S. crewmember during spaceflight, urine chemistry has been altered - likely due to induced changes in renal physiology as a result of exposure to microgravity. This may predispose astronauts to stone formation, leading the HRP to conduct and sponsor research to: 1) understand the risk of stone formation in space; 2) prevent stones from forming; and 3) address stones that may form by providing novel diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. Discussion: The development of a renal stone during spaceflight is a significant medical concern that requires the HRP to minimize this risk by providing the ability to prevent, diagnose, monitor and treat the condition during spaceflight. A discussion of the risk as NASA understands it is followed by an overview of the multiple mitigations currently under study, including novel ultrasound techniques for stone detection and manipulation, and how they may function as part of a larger exploration medical system.

Antonsen, Erik↗