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DOE OSTI2024

Minneapolis American Indian Center Solar + Battery Resilience Hub

To meet south Minneapolis, Minnesota's clean energy goals, the community exploring opportunities to transition Minneapolis American Indian Center (MAIC) into a resilience hub to provide critical community services during power outages, including shelter and warmth or cooling, continued food distribution services, and more. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, through the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) pilot, worked with MAIC to quantify the costs and benefits of installing stand-alone solar photovoltaics (PV) and PV paired with battery systems to reduce energy costs, avoid emissions, and improve resilience.

BESS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Theoretic Approaches to Quantifying Power System Resiliency

Although gaining growing importance, the subject of power system resiliency still lacks a commonly acknowledged metric. As a contribution to solving this complication, in this paper we leverage the concepts of spanning trees and Fiedler value from graph theory to propose two topology-based indices for quantifying the resiliency of power systems. The proposed indices require least information and may be applied to any other flow network, such as water or gas pipeline networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Hydropower Plants for Wildfire Resilient Microgrids

The increasing occurrence and severity of wildfires in recent years is severely impacting critical infrastructures, including the power grid, compromising the quality of life and provision of essential services, including electricity. The western parts of the United States, more specifically Washington, Oregon, and California, which are prone to large wildfires, are also rich in hydropower resources. Hydropower resources located close to communities vulnerable to wildfire can be utilized to develop wildfire-resilient microgrids to support critical needs of those communities. Therefore, this paper develops a framework to characterize hydropower plants and evaluate their feasibility to operate in microgrids during wildfire-related outages. In the proposed framework, hydropower plants are characterized using various plant and site attributes and evaluated in terms of capability and performance indicative metrics. A case study is carried out evaluating the Hills Creek hydropower plant located in a wildfire-prone region of Oregon for wildfire-resilient microgrid. The results of steady-state and dynamic simulations show that the hydropower plant is capable of providing the essential microgrid services and powering nearby communities during extended wildfire-related outages.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Defense Resilience Technical Assistance Options - Initial Overview

The Defense Resilience Technical Assistance (TA) project, a collaboration between the DOE Grid Deployment Office and the DoD, aims to enhance energy infrastructure at military installations and utilities and the surrounding community. It focuses on improving energy system performance, addressing power infrastructure inadequacies, enhancing power quality, reducing cyber sabotage impacts, and strengthening digital supply chains. Defense Resilience Technical Assistance Options - Initial Overview. Intend to tailor to the pilot installation.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Considering Climate Change Scenarios in Site Resilience Planning

This paper was prepared in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program. The paper serves as a resource for site-level personnel who are performing energy and water resilience planning at their sites and who need to identify and incorporate data that may help them assess risks to infrastructure and operations as a result of future climate change impacts. Specifically, the paper is a high-level look at available scenarios of future climate that can be incorporated into assessments based on U.S. regional models.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Restoring freshwater habitat mosaics to promote resilience of vulnerable salmon populations

Phenotypic diversity and abundance drive salmon resilience in the face of increasing environmental variability. But what happens when human activities fundamentally alter the habitat complexity that drives this diversity? And how can we restore habitats to recover both diversity and abundance to support salmon persistence in a warming climate? Here, we looked at the impact of a large watershed restoration effort on the abundance and climate resilience of the three remaining core natural spring-run Chinook Salmon populations in the California Central Valley (Butte, Mill, and Deer Creek). Butte Creek fish, which have floodplain access, had higher overall productivity and faster juvenile growth compared with Mill and Deer Creek populations, and the proportion of floodplain inundation was positively correlated with Butte Creek adult abundance two years later. While Butte Creek exhibited significant increases in abundance post-restoration (~2000%), it generally exhibited lower phenotypic diversity and only a marginal increase in population stability after restoration based on the coefficient of variation (CV). In particular, Butte Creek salmon tended to exhibit larger drops in escapement following dry years (e.g., return years 2010, 2017) compared with Mill and Deer Creek populations, presumably due to limited inundation of its downstream floodplain. The late-migrating juvenile strategy (i.e., yearling), which disproportionately supported Mill and Deer Creek populations during droughts, was uncommon among Butte Creek adults (averaging 60% of returns for Mill and Deer Creek vs. 0.3% for Butte Creek). Increased spring-run stock complex stability was found, post-restoration, when combining the three spring-run populations (i.e., lower aggregate CV). However, among-river pairwise correlations also suggested increased synchronization in population abundances post-restoration, potentially due to increasing frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (e.g., droughts and ocean warming). This study underscores the importance of restoring a connected mosaic of aquatic habitats across modified landscapes, such as cold water refugia and floodplains, to preserve multiple (across-population) life history pathways for increasing salmon stock complex stability and abundance. These landscape-scale process-based habitat restoration efforts are likely to be crucial for the successful long-term recovery of vulnerable species in a rapidly changing climate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resilient Hierarchical Networked Control Systems: Secure Controls for Critical Locations and at Edge

Integration of information and communication technology (ICT) offers new opportunities in improving the management and operation of critical infrastructures such as power systems as it allows connection of different sensors and control components via a communication network, leading to the so-called networked control systems (NCS). However, the use of open and pervasive ICT such as the Internet or wireless communication technologies comes at a price of making NCS vulnerable to cyber intrusions/attacks which may cause physical damage. Here, this chapter presents control algorithms to ensure resilient and safe operation of NCS under unknown cyberattacks. Specifically, a variant of dynamic watermarking strategies is presented by embedding encoding/decoding components of chaotic signals into the NCS for secure control for critical locations where the measurement/control signals are transmitted to/from the control center via a communication network. In addition, resilient cooperative control algorithms are discussed to ensure safe operation at edge of the NCS which consists of a large number of distributed controllable devices. Several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the proposed control strategies.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

RADAMS: Resilient and adaptive alert and attention management strategy against Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks

Attacks exploiting human attentional vulnerability have posed severe threats to cybersecurity. In this work, we identify and formally define a new type of proactive attentional attacks called Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that generate a large volume of feint attacks to overload human operators and hide real attacks among feints. Here, we incorporate human factors (e.g., levels of expertise, stress, and efficiency) and empirical psychological results (e.g., the Yerkes-Dodson law and the sunk cost fallacy) to model the operators’ attention dynamics and their decision-making processes along with the real-time alert monitoring and inspection. To assist human operators in dismissing the feints and escalating the real attacks timely and accurately, we develop a Resilient and Adaptive Data-driven alert and Attention Management Strategy (RADAMS) that de-emphasizes alerts selectively based on the abstracted category labels of the alerts. RADAMS uses reinforcement learning to achieve a customized and transferable design for various human operators and evolving IDoS attacks. The integrated modeling and theoretical analysis lead to the Product Principle of Attention (PPoA), fundamental limits, and the tradeoff among crucial human and economic factors. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed strategy outperforms the default strategy and can reduce the IDoS risk by as much as 20%. Besides, the strategy is resilient to large variations of costs, attack frequencies, and human attention capacities. We have recognized interesting phenomena such as attentional risk equivalency, attacker’s dilemma, and the half-truth optimal attack strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-criteria thermal resilience certification scheme for indoor built environments during heat waves

With climate change, the indoor built environment is expected to significantly influence the occupant's safety and well-being. A novel multi-criteria thermal resilience certification scheme for indoor built environments during extreme heat events is proposed in this paper. The certification scheme considers overheating, thermal comfort, heat stress, and hygrothermal discomfort in built environments. These criteria are quantified using key performance indicators like indoor overheating degree, hours of exceedance, wet-bulb globe temperature, and heat index, respectively. This scheme is developed based on existing best practices like standards, rating systems, and literature. The scheme is implemented on a benchmark building energy performance model for detached post-World War II dwellings in Belgium as a case study using weather data measured from the City of Brussels. The indoor overheating in the reference dwelling is assessed with a static threshold of 27 °C for the bedrooms and adaptive thresholds for other areas. The analysis found that the building performance is within the defined threshold levels throughout the heat wave duration for all criteria. Therefore, the reference dwelling got a maximum attainable score of four points and is rated five-star for thermal resilience during heat waves. The proposed certification scheme is intended as a standardized framework and highlights the need for further revisions in building performance policies and guidelines.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resilient Design of Continuous-time Distributed Optimization Algorithm in the Presence of Cyber-attacks

This paper presents a continuous-time resilient distributed optimization algorithm based on competitive interaction design method on connected graphs in the presence of adversaries. Here, the competitive interaction method allows us to design a network that protects the multi-agent systems from adversaries without requiring high network connectivity. In addition, the proposed algorithm does not require the global information about the number of adversaries. First, we show that the proposed distributed algorithm solves the resilient distributed optimization problem with no attack on the communication links. Second, we show that the proposed continuous-time distributed optimization algorithm on connected graphs converges to the small neighborhood of the optimal solution in the presence of cyber-attacks onto the communication channel. Simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate Drives Modeled Forest Carbon Cycling Resistance and Resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond (resistance) and recover from (resilience) to rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the ED-2.2 model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900, and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes, and interacted with one another. We then calculated metrics of functional ecosystem stability. Modeled gross primary production exhibited a mean resistance of -0.13, -0.23, and -0.42 (unitless) in response to increasing disturbance severity of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality, respectively; and resilience of 0.002, 0.004, 0.008 (yr-1) respectively. This pattern held true for other carbon fluxes, meaning that in general simulated GPP declined more initially but recovered more quickly from higher mortality. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Multisector Scenarios of Outcomes for Well-Being and Resilience

Shared community scenarios of societal and environmental system changes have underpinned a broad range of research and assessment studies over the past several decades. These scenarios have largely aimed to address specific questions within broad issue areas like climate change or biodiversity and generally provided information on the drivers of change. The consequences of those drivers, such as impacts on society and policy responses, have tended to be left to the research community to investigate, using scenarios of drivers as inputs to their studies, producing projections of a disparate set of relevant output metrics. While this approach has had many benefits, it has fallen short of producing a robust, comparable literature describing outcomes across studies in common metrics. We argue that new scenarios are needed that extend current approaches to be organized around common outcome metrics for the well-being and resilience of society and ecosystems. We propose an approach that would focus on agreed upon outcomes for well-being and resilience as well as critical drivers of change, cut across issues and scales in multiple sectors, and draw on new systematic methods of scenario generation and discovery to highlight scenarios that are most critical in understanding societal risks and responding to them. Research derived from this outcome-based scenario development approach would facilitate improved assessment of risks of and responses to a range of stressors and the multi-sector interactions they generate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

Droughts across the U.S. have imposed substantial challenges to the management of water resources. Reservoir drought, one type of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. We investigate how reservoir drought signatures, particularly onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency, may shift under rising temperatures, and how these shifts vary by reservoir typology and degree of regulation. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ~12-km resolution, we simulated reservoir storage and characterized reservoir droughts across five heavily regulated U.S. basins. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenario of rising temperatures. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations and slower recovery. With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. These results are valuable in understanding water availability in highly regulated environments, and the influence of hydrometeorological conditions on storage dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first of its kind benchmark for reservoir droughts at a continental scale to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts. Future research is needed to link reservoir drought conditions to actual supply shortages across competing water uses, while leveraging existing adaptive management strategies and coordinated reservoir operations.

reservoir↗

DOE OSTI2022

Co-occurrence networks reveal more complexity than community composition in resistance and resilience of microbial communities

Plant response to drought stress involves fungi and bacteria that live on and in plants and in the rhizosphere, yet the stability of these myco- and micro-biomes remains poorly understood. We investigate the resistance and resilience of fungi and bacteria to drought in an agricultural system using both community composition and microbial associations. Here we show that tests of the fundamental hypotheses that fungi, as compared to bacteria, are (i) more resistant to drought stress but (ii) less resilient when rewetting relieves the stress, found robust support at the level of community composition. Results were more complex using all-correlations and co-occurrence networks. In general, drought disrupts microbial networks based on significant positive correlations among bacteria, among fungi, and between bacteria and fungi. Surprisingly, co-occurrence networks among functional guilds of rhizosphere fungi and leaf bacteria were strengthened by drought, and the same was seen for networks involving arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in the rhizosphere. We also found support for the stress gradient hypothesis because drought increased the relative frequency of positive correlations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Typical and extreme weather datasets for studying the resilience of buildings to climate change and heatwaves

We present unprecedented datasets of current and future projected weather files for building simulations in 15 major cities distributed across 10 climate zones worldwide. The datasets include ambient air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, direct and diffuse solar irradiance, and wind speed at hourly resolution, which are essential climate elements needed to undertake building simulations. The datasets contain typical and extreme weather years in the EnergyPlus weather file (EPW) format and multiyear projections in comma-separated value (CSV) format for three periods: historical (2001–2020), future mid-term (2041–2060), and future long-term (2081–2100). The datasets were generated from projections of one regional climate model, which were bias-corrected using multiyear observational data for each city. The methodology used makes the datasets among the first to incorporate complex changes in the future climate for the frequency, duration, and magnitude of extreme temperatures. These datasets, created within the IEA EBC Annex 80 “Resilient Cooling for Buildings”, are ready to be used for different types of building adaptation and resilience studies to climate change and heatwaves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Resilience of Urban Transport Network-of-Networks under Intense Flood Hazards Exacerbated by Targeted Attacks

Natural hazards including floods can trigger catastrophic failures in interdependent urban transport network-of-networks (NoNs). Population growth has enhanced transportation demand while urbanization and climate change have intensified urban floods. However, despite the clear need to develop actionable insights for improving the resilience of critical urban lifelines, the theory and methods remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, as infrastructure systems become more intelligent, security experts point to the growing threat of targeted cyber-physical attacks during natural hazards. Here we develop a hypothesis-driven resilience framework for urban transport NoNs, which we demonstrate on the London Rail Network (LRN). We find that topological attributes designed for maximizing efficiency rather than robustness render the network more vulnerable to compound natural-targeted disruptions including cascading failures. Our results suggest that an organizing principle for post-disruption recovery may be developed with network science principles. Our findings and frameworks can generalize to urban lifelines and more generally to real-world spatial networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solid neon as a noise-resilient host for electron qubits above 100 mK

Solid neon can be used as a solid host for single-electron qubits. At temperatures of around 10 mK, electron-on-solid-neon charge qubits exhibit long coherence times and high operation fidelities. However, a systematic characterization of the noise features of such systems is needed for the development of scalable quantum information architectures. Here, in this work, we show that solid neon can be used as a noise-resilient host for electron qubits above 100 mK. We examine the resilience of solid neon against charge and thermal noise when electron-on-solid-neon charge qubits are operated away from the charge-insensitive sweet spot and at elevated temperatures. We show that the extracted high-frequency charge noise density of electron-on-solid-neon qubits, projected as voltage fluctuations on nearby electrodes, is between 10 −4 μV 2 Hz −1 and 10 −6 μV 2 Hz −1 at 0.01 MHz to 1 MHz, which is comparable to common semiconductor hosts. We also show that the electron-on-solid-neon charge qubits operating at frequencies of around 5 GHz can maintain echo coherence times of over 1 μs at temperatures up to 400 mK.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Governance and resilience as entry points for transforming food systems in the countdown to 2030

Due to complex interactions, changes in any one area of food systems are likely to impact—and possibly depend on—changes in other areas. Here we present the first annual monitoring update of the indicator framework proposed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, with new qualitative analysis elucidating interactions across indicators. Since 2000, we find that 20 of 42 indicators with time series have been trending in a desirable direction, indicating modest positive change. Qualitative expert elicitation assessed governance and resilience indicators to be most connected to other indicators across themes, highlighting entry points for action—particularly governance action. Literature review and country case studies add context to the assessed interactions across diets, environment, livelihoods, governance and resilience indicators, helping different actors understand and navigate food systems towards desirable change.

Schneider, Kate R. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Washingto↗