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DOE OSTI2015

Assessment of the Potential to Achieve very Low Energy Use in Public Buildings in China with Advanced Window and Shading Systems

As rapid growth in the construction industry continues to occur in China, the increased demand for a higher standard living is driving significant growth in energy use and demand across the country. Building codes and standards have been implemented to head off this trend, tightening prescriptive requirements for fenestration component measures using methods similar to the U.S. model energy code American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) 90.1. The objective of this study is to (a) provide an overview of applicable code requirements and current efforts within China to enable characterization and comparison of window and shading products, and (b) quantify the load reduction and energy savings potential of several key advanced window and shading systems, given the divergent views on how space conditioning requirements will be met in the future. System-level heating and cooling loads and energy use performance were evaluated for a code-compliant large office building using the EnergyPlus building energy simulation program. Commercially-available, highly-insulating, low-emittance windows were found to produce 24%–66% lower perimeter zone HVAC electricity use compared to the mandated energy-efficiency standard in force (GB 50189-2005) in cold climates like Beijing. Low-e windows with operable exterior shading produced up to 30%–80% reductions in perimeter zone HVAC electricity use in Beijing and 18%–38% reductions in Shanghai compared to the standard. The economic context of China is unique since the cost of labor and materials for the building industry is so low. Broad deployment of these commercially available technologies with the proper supporting infrastructure for design, specification, and verification in the field would enable significant reductions in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in the near term.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2016

The MELCOR Analysis of Chinshan Nuclear Power Plant Spent Fuel Pool for Fukushima-like Accident

The safety analysis of the nuclear power plant (NPP) is very important work in the NPP safety. Especially after the Fukushima NPP accident occurred, the importance of NPP safety analysis has been raised and there is more concern for the safety of NPPs in Taiwan. Because the earthquake and tsunami occurred, the cooling system of spent fuel pool failed and the safety issue of spent fuel pool generated in Japan's Fukushima NPP. Chinshan NPP is the first NPP in Taiwan which is BWR/4 plant and OLTP (Original Licensed Thermal Power) for each unit is 1775 MWt. Chinshan NPP finished SPU (stretch power uprate) and the operating power is 103.66% of the OLTP, which is 1840 MWt now. After Fukushima NPP accident occurred, in order to concern the safety of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool, we performed the safety analysis of spent fuel pool by using MELCOR/SNAP which also assumed the cooling system of spent fuel pool failed. The geometry of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool is 12.17 m x 7.87 m x 11.61 m and the initial condition is 60 deg. (water temperature) / 1.013 x 10{sup 5} Pa. And, the total power of the fuels is roughly 8.9 MWt initially. MELCOR is developed by Sandia National Laboratories. MELCOR is a fully integrated, engineering-level computer code that models the progression of severe accidents in light water reactor NPPs, including containment response and leakage of activity to the environment. A broad spectrum of severe accident phenomena in both BWRs and PWRs is treated in MELCOR in a unified framework. These include thermalhydraulic response in the reactor coolant system, reactor cavity, containment, and confinement buildings; core heatup, degradation, and relocation; core-concrete attack; hydrogen production, transport, and combustion; fission product release and transport behavior. Current uses of MELCOR include estimation of severe accident source terms and their sensitivities and uncertainties in a variety of applications. According to Dr. Carbajo's paper, MELCOR was used to perform the study of spent fuel pool of Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4. Niina E. Koenoenen used MELCOR to establish the spent fuel pool model of a Nordic BWR. The loss-of-pool-cooling accidents was simulated and analyzed by this model. The above studies indicate that MELCOR is capable of handling the simulation of the spent fuel pool. An increasing number of researchers are using MELCOR code to analyze test facilities and nuclear power plants. Jun Wang et al. used MELCOR to perform core degradation simulation and MELCOR results were compared with CORA experimental data. Through this work, they reviewed the performance of MELCOR COR package in detail. Tae Woon Kim et al. developed MELCOR model of APR1400 (an advanced pressurized water reactor). They used this model to perform the LBLOCA transient simulation and sensitivity study. Longze Li et al. established the MELCOR model of CPR1000 (a Chinese pressurized reactor 1000-MW power plant). The station blackout (SBO) with failure of the steam generator (SG) safety relief valve (SRV) transient was simulated and analyzed by this model. SNAP is a graphic user interface program that processes the inputs and outputs of MELCOR. In addition, there is an animation function in SNAP which can present the animation of analysis results. There are two main steps in this research. The first step was the establishment of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool MELCOR/SNAP model. And the transient analysis of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool MELCOR/SNAP model under the cooling system failure condition was performed. The next step was the comparison among the MELCOR, TRACE and CFD data. TRACE and CFD data were from INER reports. In addition, the animation model of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool was presented by using the animation function of SNAP with MELCOR/SNAP analysis results. This study has developed MELCOR/SNAP model of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool successfully. By using the above model, the safety analysis of the spent fuel pool was performed under the cooling system of spent fuel pool failed condition. The analysis results of MELCOR, TRACE and CFD were similar in this case. It indicated that there was a respectable accuracy in MELCOR/SNAP model. The analysis results depicted that the uncovered of the fuels occurred at 2.6 day and the metal-water reaction of fuels occurred roughly at 3.7 day after the cooling system failed. The above results indicated that the failure of cladding occurred after 3.7 day. This study's results can help to evaluate the safety issue of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool. In addition, the cooling system and some mitigation measures of spent fuel pool is not simulated in the above model. However, we will do it in the future. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Time cycle analysis and simulation of material flow in MOX process layout

The (U,Pu)O{sub 2} MOX fuel is the driver fuel for the upcoming PFBR (Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor). The fuel has around 30% PuO{sub 2}. The presence of high percentages of reprocessed PuO{sub 2} necessitates the design of optimized fuel fabrication process line which will address both production need as well as meet regulatory norms regarding radiological safety criteria. The powder pellet route has highly unbalanced time cycle. This difficulty can be overcome by optimizing process layout in terms of equipment redundancy and scheduling of input powder batches. Different schemes are tested before implementing in the process line with the help of a software. This software simulates the material movement through the optimized process layout. The different material processing schemes have been devised and validity of the schemes are tested with the software. Schemes in which production batches are meeting at any glove box location are considered invalid. A valid scheme ensures adequate spacing between the production batches and at the same time it meets the production target. This software can be further improved by accurately calculating material movement time through glove box train. One important factor is considering material handling time with automation systems in place.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Measurements and Simulations of Neutron Emission Versus Deuterium Filling Pressure in Plasma Focus Device PF-24

A series of experiments were carried out using the middle energy (dense) plasma focus device PF-24 with deuterium as a working gas under pressure in a range between 2 and 5 mbar for 17 kV of charging voltage. The relationship between these operating deuterium pressures in reference to the total neutron yield (Y{sub n}) was estimated. The 5-phase Lee code was used to simulate the measured discharge current and neutron yield (Y{sub n}) using a phenomenological beam-target neutron generating mechanism, which was incorporated in the model. Comparison of the Y{sub n} versus pressure using fitted model parameters was made at each point of pressure. The good agreement between measured and computed Y{sub n} values was achieved for discharges with lower neutron emission. The measured Y{sub n} (below 2.6 × 10{sup 9} n/discharge—the median value) has been reproducible by the model for 73% of simulated discharges, while above the median value its prediction were incorrect. The kinetic plasma parameters which were measured and computed using the Lee code for different pressures are: the time to a current sheath collapse (t{sub c}), the average axial current sheath velocity (v{sub z}) and the so called velocity factor (RF). Good agreement was found in the whole range of deuterium pressures between the computed and measured results for these kinematic quantities. Presented findings in this work suggest that the character of neutron emission is more complex than it would seem from classical interpretation of neutron production based on a beam-target model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nondestructive and destructive assay for forensics characterization of weapons-grade plutonium produced in LEU irradiated in a thermal neutron spectrum

A post-irradiation examination (PIE) of an enriched uranium sample was performed to advance a nuclear forensics methodology, based on intra-elemental nuclide ratios. The PIE was carried out on a few milligrams of low enriched uranium dioxide (LEUO 2 ) sample, irradiated to a burnup of 1 GWd/MTU. The PIE of the LEUO 2 sample provided the concentration of selected plutonium and fission product nuclides ( 239 Pu, 240 Pu, 241 Pu, 91 Y, 95 Zr, 95 Nb, 103 Ru, 133 Cs, 134 Cs, 135 Cs, 137 Cs, 136 Ba, 138 Ba, 140 Ba, 140 La, 141 Ce, 144 Ce, 149 Sm, 150 Sm, 152 Sm, 153 Eu, and 154 Eu). The PIE supported validation of the MCNP (Monte Carlo N-Particle neutronics simulation code) predicted concentration of these nuclides in the irradiated LEUO 2 sample. This study showed that most of the MCNP predicted nuclide concentrations were within 15% and several within 10% compared to the PIE results. Furthermore, gamma and mass spectrometry of nuclides in irradiated LEUO 2 enabled the determination of uranium burnup and time since irradiation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Trilinos: Enabling Scientific Computing across Diverse Hardware Architectures at Scale

Trilinos is a community-developed, open-source software framework that facilitates building large-scale, complex, multiscale, multiphysics simulation code bases for scientific and engineering problems. Since the Trilinos framework has undergone substantial changes to support new applications and new hardware architectures, this document is an update to “An Overview of the Trilinos project” by Heroux et al. (ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software, 31(3):397–423, 2005). It describes the design of Trilinos, introduces its new organization in product areas, and highlights established and new features available in Trilinos. Particular focus is put on the modernized software stack based on the Kokkos ecosystem to deliver performance portability across heterogeneous hardware architectures. This article also outlines the organization of the Trilinos community and the contribution model to help onboard interested users and contributors.

Heterogeneous Hardware Architectures↗

DOE OSTI2016

A physically based model of the ionizing radiation from active galaxies for photoionization modeling

We present a simplified model of active galactic nucleus (AGN) continuum emission designed for photoionization modeling. The new model oxaf reproduces the diversity of spectral shapes that arise in physically based models. We identify and explain degeneracies in the effects of AGN parameters on model spectral shapes, with a focus on the complete degeneracy between the black hole mass and AGN luminosity. Our reparametrized model oxaf removes these degeneracies and accepts three parameters that directly describe the output spectral shape: the energy of the peak of the accretion disk emission E{sub peak}, the photon power-law index of the non-thermal emission Γ, and the proportion of the total flux that is emitted in the non-thermal component p{sub NT}. The parameter E{sub peak} is presented as a function of the black hole mass, AGN luminosity, and “coronal radius” of the optxagnf model upon which oxaf is based. We show that the soft X-ray excess does not significantly affect photoionization modeling predictions of strong emission lines in Seyfert narrow-line regions. Despite its simplicity, oxaf accounts for opacity effects where the accretion disk is ionized because it inherits the “color correction” of optxagnf. We use a grid of mappings photoionization models with oxaf ionizing spectra to demonstrate how predicted emission-line ratios on standard optical diagnostic diagrams are sensitive to each of the three oxaf parameters. The oxaf code is publicly available in the Astrophysics Source Code Library.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mathematical description of complex chemical kinetics and application to CFD modeling codes

A major effort in combustion research at the present time is devoted to the theoretical modeling of practical combustion systems. These include turbojet and ramjet air-breathing engines as well as ground-based gas-turbine power generating systems. The ability to use computational modeling extensively in designing these products not only saves time and money, but also helps designers meet the quite rigorous environmental standards that have been imposed on all combustion devices. The goal is to combine the very complex solution of the Navier-Stokes flow equations with realistic turbulence and heat-release models into a single computer code. Such a computational fluid-dynamic (CFD) code simulates the coupling of fluid mechanics with the chemistry of combustion to describe the practical devices. This paper will focus on the task of developing a simplified chemical model which can predict realistic heat-release rates as well as species composition profiles, and is also computationally rapid. We first discuss the mathematical techniques used to describe a complex, multistep fuel oxidation chemical reaction and develop a detailed mechanism for the process. We then show how this mechanism may be reduced and simplified to give an approximate model which adequately predicts heat release rates and a limited number of species composition profiles, but is computationally much faster than the original one. Only such a model can be incorporated into a CFD code without adding significantly to long computation times. Finally, we present some of the recent advances in the development of these simplified chemical mechanisms.

Bittker, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mathematical Description of Complex Chemical Kinetics and Application to CFD Modeling Codes

Bittker, D. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Verification and Validation of Elastodynamic Simulation Software for Aerospace Research

Physics-based simulation of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) inspection can help to advance the inspectability and reliability of mechanical systems. However, NDE simulations applicable to non-idealized mechanical components often require large compute domains and long run times. This has prompted development of custom NDE simulation software tailored to high performance computing (HPC) hardware. Verification and validation (V&V) is an integral part of developing this software to ensure implementations are robust and applicable to inspection problems, producing tools and simulations suitable for computational NDE research. This presentation addresses factors common to V&V of several elastodynamic simulation codes applicable to ultrasonic NDE. Examples are drawn from in-house simulation software at NASA Langley Research Center, ranging from ensuring reliability in a 1D heterogeneous media wave equation solver to the V&V needs of 3D cluster-parallel elastodynamic software. Factors specific to a research environment are addressed, where individual simulation results can be as relevant as the software product itself. Distinct facets of V&V are discussed including testing to establish software reliability, employing systematic approaches for consistency with fundamental conservation laws, establishing the numerical stability of algorithms, and demonstrating concurrence with empirical data. This talk also addresses V&V practices for small groups of researchers. This includes establishing resources (e.g. time and personnel) for V&V during project planning to mitigate and control the risk of setbacks. Similarly, we identify ways for individual researchers to use V&V during simulation software development itself to both speed up the development process and reduce incurred technical debt.

NDE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 5/6/7 Experiment

This report documents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technologies? research and development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR 5/6/7 capsules, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The calculated fuel temperatures for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. This report covers temperature uncertainty results for each of the five AGR 5/6/7 capsules. To quantify the uncertainty of calculated temperatures determined using the ABAQUS finite element heat transfer code, this study identifies and analyzes model parameters of potential importance to the calculated temperatures of fuel compacts and thermocouples. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification is based on the ranking of their influences upon temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with the largest uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of calculated temperatures. Measurement uncertainty, analysis of modeling assumptions, and expert judgment are used as the basis to quantify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic, accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperatures and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the time dependent first order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the temperature response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain, the analysis obtains time dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration. This allows computation of uncertainty for the calculated fuel temperatures and the calculated graphite temperatures at thermocouple locations during the entire irradiation period.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nuclide inventory validation: radiochemical assay data quality and modeling challenges in benchmark models development

Oak Ridge National Laboratory is conducting radiochemical assay experiments, using high-precision analytical protocols validated with a comprehensive quality assurance plan, to expand the nuclide inventory validation basis for high burnup spent nuclear fuel. Preliminary measurement data for key actinides and fission products in two pressurized water reactor spent fuel samples are being used to investigate the impact of measurement data uncertainty on the sample burnup estimation. These measurement data are also being used to examine the impact of assumptions applied when developing best-estimate computational models to simulate fuel irradiation history. The simulations are being performed using depletion capabilities in the SCALE code system. Comparison of calculated and measured nuclide concentrations shows good agreement for the considered nuclides. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Shear Strength Assumptions on BISON Debonding Simulations

Accurately predicting the thermomechanical response of buffer–IPyC debonding in TRISO fuel particles requires reliable mechanical property inputs for each coating layer, particularly the normal and shear strengths that influence interlayer delamination and stress concentrations. Micro tensile testing of AGR-2 fuel particles provided experimentally measured normal strengths for the buffer, IPyC, and buffer–IPyC interface; however, shear strength was not measured. As a result, BISON simulations of interface debonding must rely on assumed shear strength values, typically estimated as 20–40% of the measured ultimate tensile strength. This study evaluates how these assumed shear strength values influence cohesive zone model (CZM) predictions of buffer–IPyC separation in AGR 2 TRISO particles. Using micro tensile data from three AGR 2 compacts (2 1 3, 5 1 3, and 6 3 3), BISON simulations were performed with multiple shear strength assumptions to quantify their effect on radial and tangential stress evolution, debonding, and gap propagation. The results show that shear strength is a high sensitivity parameter: increasing the assumed shear strength significantly alters the stress distribution at the buffer–IPyC junction, shifts the predicted debonding location, and changes the extent of partial gap formation. While normal strength controls the initiation of interface separation, shear strength strongly influences the mode mixity of the failure process and the resulting stress concentrations transmitted to the IPyC and SiC layers. These findings highlight a critical gap in current TRISO mechanical characterization. Without experimentally measured shear strength, BISON simulations must rely on approximations that introduce uncertainty into predictions of coating layer integrity and fission product barrier performance. Future fuel qualification campaigns should therefore consider measurement of shear strength at the interlayer interfaces to reduce model uncertainty and improve the fidelity of TRISO fuel performance simulations.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Infinite possibilities: Computational structures technology

Computational Fluid Dynamics (or CFD) methods are very familiar to the research community. Even the general public has had some exposure to CFD images, primarily through the news media. However, very little attention has been paid to CST--Computational Structures Technology. Yet, no important design can be completed without it. During the first half of this century, researchers only dreamed of designing and building structures on a computer. Today their dreams have become practical realities as computational methods are used in all phases of design, fabrication and testing of engineering systems. Increasingly complex structures can now be built in even shorter periods of time. Over the past four decades, computer technology has been developing, and early finite element methods have grown from small in-house programs to numerous commercial software programs. When coupled with advanced computing systems, they help engineers make dramatic leaps in designing and testing concepts. The goals of CST include: predicting how a structure will behave under actual operating conditions; designing and complementing other experiments conducted on a structure; investigating microstructural damage or chaotic, unpredictable behavior; helping material developers in improving material systems; and being a useful tool in design systems optimization and sensitivity techniques. Applying CST to a structure problem requires five steps: (1) observe the specific problem; (2) develop a computational model for numerical simulation; (3) develop and assemble software and hardware for running the codes; (4) post-process and interpret the results; and (5) use the model to analyze and design the actual structure. Researchers in both industry and academia continue to make significant contributions to advance this technology with improvements in software, collaborative computing environments and supercomputing systems. As these environments and systems evolve, computational structures technology will evolve. By using CST in the design and operation of future structures systems, engineers will have a better understanding of how a system responds and lasts, more cost-effective methods of designing and testing models, and improved productivity. For informational and educational purposes, a videotape is being produced using both static and dynamic images from research institutions, software and hardware companies, private individuals, and historical photographs and drawings. The extensive number of CST resources indicates its widespread use. Applications run the gamut from simpler university-simulated problems to those requiring solutions on supercomputers. In some cases, an image or an animation will be mapped onto the actual structure to show the relevance of the computer model to the structure. Transferring the digital files to videotape presents a number of problems related to maintaining the quality of the original image, while still producing a broadcast quality videotape. Since researchers normally do not create a computer image using traditional composition theories or video production requirements, often the image loses some of its original digital quality and impact when transferred to videotape. Although many CST images are currently available, those that are edited into the final project must meet two important criteria: they must complement the narration, and they must be broadcast quality when recorded on videotape.

Beam, Sherilee F.↗

DOE OSTI2016

A numerical study of the effect of various reactions, pressure and gas mixture ratio on the density distribution of etchant species (H, Br, Br{sup +}, and HBr{sup +}) in HBr/He plasma

In this study, a fluid model has been used to study the effect of gas mixing ratio and pressure on the density distribution of important etchant species, i.e., hydrogen (H), bromine (Br), Br{sup +}, and HBr{sup +} in HBr/He plasma. Our simulation results show that the densities of active etchant species H, Br, and HBr{sup +} increase with the increase in pressure as well as the HBr fraction in HBr/He mixture. On the contrary, the density of Br{sup +} decreases with the increase in He percentage in HBr/He mixture and with the increase in the pressure. Time averaged reaction rates (of the reactions involved in the production and consumption of these species) have been calculated to study the effect of these reactions on the density distribution of these species. The spatial distribution of these species is explained with the help of the time averaged reaction rates. Important reactions have been identified that contribute considerably to the production and consumption of these active species. The code has been optimized by identifying 26 reactions (out of 40 reactions which contribute in the production and consumption of these species) that have insignificant effect on the densities of H, Br, Br{sup +}, and HBr{sup +}. This shows that out of 40 reactions, only 14 reactions can be used to calculate the density and distribution of the important species in HBr/He plasma discharge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

COSMIC-RAY POSITRONS FROM MILLISECOND PULSARS

Observations by the Fermi Large Area Telescope of γ-ray millisecond pulsar (MSP) light curves imply copious pair production in their magnetospheres, and not exclusively in those of younger pulsars. Such pair cascades may be a primary source of Galactic electrons and positrons, contributing to the observed enhancement in positron flux above ∼10 GeV. Fermi has also uncovered many new MSPs, impacting Galactic stellar population models. We investigate the contribution of Galactic MSPs to the flux of terrestrial cosmic-ray electrons and positrons. Our population synthesis code predicts the source properties of present-day MSPs. We simulate their pair spectra invoking an offset-dipole magnetic field. We also consider positrons and electrons that have been further accelerated to energies of several TeV by strong intrabinary shocks in black widow (BW) and redback (RB) systems. Since MSPs are not surrounded by pulsar wind nebulae or supernova shells, we assume that the pairs freely escape and undergo losses only in the intergalactic medium. We compute the transported pair spectra at Earth, following their diffusion and energy loss through the Galaxy. The predicted particle flux increases for non-zero offsets of the magnetic polar caps. Pair cascades from the magnetospheres of MSPs are only modest contributors around a few tens of GeV to the lepton fluxes measured by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer, PAMELA, and Fermi, after which this component cuts off. The contribution by BWs and RBs may, however, reach levels of a few tens of percent at tens of TeV, depending on model parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Evaluation of hydrologic components of community land model 4 and bias identification

Runoff and soil moisture are two key components of the global hydrologic cycle that should be validated at local to global scales in Earth System Models (ESMs) used for climate projection. Here, we have evaluated the runoff and surface soil moisture output by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) along with 8 other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) repository using satellite soil moisture observations and stream gauge corrected runoff products. A series of Community Land Model (CLM) runs forced by reanalysis and coupled model outputs was also performed to identify atmospheric drivers of biases and uncertainties in the CCSM. Results indicate that surface soil moisture simulations tend to be positively biased in high latitude areas by most selected CMIP5 models except CCSM, FGOALS, and BCC, which share similar land surface model code. With the exception of GISS, runoff simulations by all selected CMIP5 models were overestimated in mountain ranges and in most of the Arctic region. In general, positive biases in CCSM soil moisture and runoff due to precipitation input error were offset by negative biases induced by temperature input error. Excluding the impact from atmosphere modeling, the global mean of seasonal surface moisture oscillation was out of phase compared to observations in many years during 1985–2004. The CLM also underestimated runoff in the Amazon, central Africa, and south Asia, where soils all have high clay content. We hypothesize that lack of a macropore flow mechanism is partially responsible for this underestimation. However, runoff was overestimated in the areas covered by volcanic ash soils (i.e., Andisols), which might be associated with poor soil porosity representation in CLM. Finally, our results indicate that CCSM predictability of hydrology could be improved by addressing the compensating errors associated with precipitation and temperature and updating the CLM soil representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Learning the mechanisms of chemical disequilibria

When at equilibrium, large-scale systems obey thermodynamics because they have microscopic configurations that are typical. “Typical” states are a fraction of those possible with the majority of the probability. A more precise definition of typical states underlies the transmission, coding, and compression of information. However, this definition does not apply to natural systems that are transiently away from equilibrium. Here, we introduce a variational measure of typicality and apply it to atomistic simulations of a model for hydrogen oxidation. While a gaseous mixture of hydrogen and oxygen combusts, reactant molecules transform through a variety of ephemeral species en route to the product, water. Out of the exponentially growing number of possible sequences of chemical species, we find that greater than 95% of the probability concentrates in less than 1% of the possible sequences. Overall, these results extend the notion of typicality across the nonequilibrium regime and suggest that typical sequences are a route to learning mechanisms from experimental measurements. They also open up the possibility of constructing ensembles for computing the macroscopic observables of systems out of equilibrium.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗