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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Analysis Framework for the Hospital Resource Supply Model for Covid-19

In March and April of 2020 there was widespread concern about availability of medical resources required to treat Covid-19 patients who become seriously ill. A simulation model of supply management was developed to aid understanding of how to best manage available supplies and channel new production. Forecasted demands for critical therapeutic resources have tremendous uncertainty, largely due to uncertainties about the number and timing of patient arrivals. It is therefore essential to evaluate any process for managing supplies in view of this uncertainty. To support such evaluations, we developed a modeling framework that would allow an integrated assessment in the context of uncertainty quantification. At the time of writing there has been no need to execute this framework because adaptations of the medical system have been able to respond effectively to the outbreak. This report documents the framework and its implemented components should need later arise for its application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel estimation of aerosol processes with particle size distribution measurements: a case study with the TOMAS algorithm v1.0.0

Atmospheric aerosol microphysical processes are a significant source of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Specifically, aerosol nucleation, emissions, and growth rates, which are simulated in chemical transport models to predict the particle size distribution, are not understood well. However, long-term size distribution measurements made at several ground-based sites across Europe implicitly contain information about the processes that created those size distributions. This work aims to extract that information by developing and applying an inverse technique to constrain aerosol emissions as well as nucleation and growth rates based on hourly size distribution measurements. We developed an inverse method based upon process control theory into an online estimation technique to scale aerosol nucleation, emissions, and growth so that the model–measurement bias in three measured aerosol properties exponentially decays. The properties, which are calculated from the measured and predicted size distributions, used to constrain aerosol nucleation, emission, and growth rates are the number of particles with a diameter between 3 and 6 nm, the number with a diameter greater than 10 nm, and the total dry volume of aerosol ( N 3–6 , N 10 , V dry ), respectively. In this paper, we focus on developing and applying the estimation methodology in a zero-dimensional “box” model as a proof of concept before applying it to a three-dimensional simulation in subsequent work. The methodology is first tested on a dataset of synthetic and perfect measurements that span diverse environments in which the true particle emissions, growth, and nucleation rates are known. The inverse technique accurately estimates the aerosol microphysical process rates with an average and maximum error of 2 % and 13 %, respectively. Next, we investigate the effect that measurement noise has on the estimated rates. The method is robust to typical instrument noise in the aerosol properties as there is a negligible increase in the bias of the estimated process rates. Finally, the methodology is applied to long-term datasets of in situ size distribution measurements in western Europe from May 2006 through June 2007. At Melpitz, Germany, and Hyytiälä, Finland, the average diurnal profiles of estimated 3 nm particle formation rates are reasonable, having peaks near noon local time with average peak values of 1 and 0.15 cm –3 s –1 , respectively. The normalized absolute error in estimated N 3–6 , N 10 , and V dry at three European measurement sites is less than 15 %, showing that the estimation framework developed here has potential to decrease model–measurement bias while constraining uncertain aerosol microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Light Rain Drop Size Estimates from Multiwavelength Micropulse Lidar Network Profiling

This paper investigates multiwavelength retrievals of median equivolumetric drop diameter D(sub 0) suitable for drizzle and light rain, through collocated 355-/527-nm Micropulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) observations collected during precipitation occurring 9 May 2012 at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) project site. By applying a previously developed retrieval technique for infrared bands, the method exploits the differential backscatter by liquid water at 355 and 527 nm for water drops larger than approximately 50 micrometers. In the absence of molecular and aerosol scattering and neglecting any transmission losses, the ratio of the backscattering profiles at the two wavelengths (355 and 527 nm), measured from light rain below the cloud melting layer, can be described as a color ratio, which is directly related to D(sub 0). The uncertainty associated with this method is related to the unknown shape of the drop size spectrum and to the measurement error. Molecular and aerosol scattering contributions and relative transmission losses due to the various atmospheric constituents should be evaluated to derive D(sub 0) from the observed color ratio profiles. This process is responsible for increasing the uncertainty in the retrieval. Multiple scattering, especially for UV lidar, is another source of error, but it exhibits lower overall uncertainty with respect to other identified error sources. It is found that the total error upper limit on D(sub 0) approaches 50%. The impact of this retrieval for long-term MPLNET monitoring and its global data archive is discussed.

light-rain drop size estimates↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensor Qualification for the Development of Advanced Reactors

A temperature sensor qualification device is undergoing development and testing in order to qualify temperature sensors for advanced reactor metrology applications. This device will provide National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) traceable performance testing of temperature sensors while under the high radiation environments experienced while in-core. This is completed by utilizing retractable sensors which transfer the measurements from ex-core to in-core sensors. A detailed discussion of the uncertainty propagation associated with this comparative process is provided. Experimental testing of the temperature distribution occurring in the device has begun and is reported on. It is pertinent to minimize this temperature distribution to prevent variation in sensor measurements. This variation will be indistinguishable from sensor drift for in-pile applications and would result in unnecessarily conservative uncertainty bounds.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
NASA NTRS2009

Updating the Finite Element Model of the Aerostructures Test Wing using Ground Vibration Test Data

Improved and/or accelerated decision making is a crucial step during flutter certification processes. Unfortunately, most finite element structural dynamics models have uncertainties associated with model validity. Tuning the finite element model using measured data to minimize the model uncertainties is a challenging task in the area of structural dynamics. The model tuning process requires not only satisfactory correlations between analytical and experimental results, but also the retention of the mass and stiffness properties of the structures. Minimizing the difference between analytical and experimental results is a type of optimization problem. By utilizing the multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization (MDAO) tool in order to optimize the objective function and constraints; the mass properties, the natural frequencies, and the mode shapes can be matched to the target data to retain the mass matrix orthogonality. This approach has been applied to minimize the model uncertainties for the structural dynamics model of the Aerostructures Test Wing (ATW), which was designed and tested at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) (Edwards, California). This study has shown that natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes from the updated finite element model have excellent agreement with corresponding measured data.

Lung, Shun-fat↗
NASA NTRS2009

Updating the Finite Element Model of the Aerostructures Test Wing Using Ground Vibration Test Data

Improved and/or accelerated decision making is a crucial step during flutter certification processes. Unfortunately, most finite element structural dynamics models have uncertainties associated with model validity. Tuning the finite element model using measured data to minimize the model uncertainties is a challenging task in the area of structural dynamics. The model tuning process requires not only satisfactory correlations between analytical and experimental results, but also the retention of the mass and stiffness properties of the structures. Minimizing the difference between analytical and experimental results is a type of optimization problem. By utilizing the multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization (MDAO) tool in order to optimize the objective function and constraints; the mass properties, the natural frequencies, and the mode shapes can be matched to the target data to retain the mass matrix orthogonality. This approach has been applied to minimize the model uncertainties for the structural dynamics model of the aerostructures test wing (ATW), which was designed and tested at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California). This study has shown that natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes from the updated finite element model have excellent agreement with corresponding measured data.

Lung, Shun-Fat↗
NASA NTRS1996

Integrated Aeropropulsion Control System Design

%T Integrated Aeropropulsion Control System Design%A C-F. Lin%A Francis X. Hurley%A Jie Huang%A F. Y. Hadaegh%J International Conference on Control and Information(psi)995%C Hong Kong%D June 1995%K aeropropulsion, control, system%U http://jpltrs.jpl.nasa.gov/1995/95-0658.pdfAn integrated intelligent control approach is proposed to design a high performance control system for aeropropulsion systems based on advanced sensor processing, nonlinear control and neural fuzzy control integration. Our approach features the following innovations:??e complexity and uncertainty issues are addressed via the distributed parallel processing, learning, and online reoptimization properties of neural networks.??e nonlinear dynamics and the severe coupling can be naturally incorporated into the design framework.??e knowledge base and decision making logic furnished by fuzzy systems leads to a human intelligence enhanced control scheme.In addition, fault tolerance, health monitoring and reconfigurable control strategies will be accommodated by this approach to ensure stability, graceful degradation and reoptimization in the case of failures, malfunctions and damage.!.

aeropropulsion control systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

A general model for attitude determination error analysis

An overview is given of a comprehensive approach to filter and dynamics modeling for attitude determination error analysis. The models presented include both batch least-squares and sequential attitude estimation processes for both spin-stabilized and three-axis stabilized spacecraft. The discussion includes a brief description of a dynamics model of strapdown gyros, but it does not cover other sensor models. Model parameters can be chosen to be solve-for parameters, which are assumed to be estimated as part of the determination process, or consider parameters, which are assumed to have errors but not to be estimated. The only restriction on this choice is that the time evolution of the consider parameters must not depend on any of the solve-for parameters. The result of an error analysis is an indication of the contributions of the various error sources to the uncertainties in the determination of the spacecraft solve-for parameters. The model presented gives the uncertainty due to errors in the a priori estimates of the solve-for parameters, the uncertainty due to measurement noise, the uncertainty due to dynamic noise (also known as process noise or measurement noise), the uncertainty due to the consider parameters, and the overall uncertainty due to all these sources of error.

Markley, F. Landis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward the Advanced Manufacturing of Land-Based Wind Turbine Blades

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory and General Electric (GE) are partners within the Additive and Modular-Enabled Rotor Blades and Integrated Composites Assembly (AMERICA) project. AMERICA aims to develop advanced manufacturing solutions to reduce labor and cycle time while increasing recyclability of wind turbine blades. The project is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office. This paper describes the techno-economic and life cycle analysis of the novel manufacturing process applied to the 15-meter long tip of the blade of a representative 3.4 MW land-based wind turbine. We establish a comparison to a standard manufacturing process, highlighting challenges and opportunities. Several uncertainties affect the analysis, but we highlight an opportunity space. With the current set of assumptions, the tip adopting advanced manufacturing is predicted to lower labor by 21%, cycle time by 39%, and total blade tip costs by 15% while simultaneously increasing production quality and adopting recyclable thermoplastic resin. A life cycle analysis returns comparable metrics for climate change impact and embodied energy between the two processes.

3D printing↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of the Orion Crew Module Static Aerodynamic Database: Hypersonic - Part 1

The Orion aerodynamic database provides force and moment coefficients given the velocity, attitude, configuration, etc. of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). The database is developed and maintained by the NASA CEV Aerosciences Project team from computational and experimental aerodynamic simulations. The database is used primarily by the Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) team to design vehicle trajectories and assess flight performance. The initial hypersonic re-entry portion of the Crew Module (CM) database was developed in 2006. Updates incorporating additional data and improvements to the database formulation and uncertainty methodologies have been made since then. This paper details the process used to develop the CM database, including nominal values and uncertainties, for Mach numbers greater than 8 and angles of attack between 140deg and 180deg. The primary available data are more than 1000 viscous, reacting gas chemistry computational simulations using both the Laura and Dplr codes, over a range of Mach numbers from 2 to 37 and a range of angles of attack from 147deg to 172deg. Uncertainties were based on grid convergence, laminar-turbulent solution variations, combined altitude and code-to-code variations, and expected heatshield asymmetry. A radial basis function response surface tool, NEAR-RS, was used to fit the coefficient data smoothly in a velocity-angle-of-attack space. The resulting database is presented and includes some data comparisons and a discussion of the predicted variation of trim angle of attack and lift-to-drag ratio. The database provides a variation in trim angle of attack on the order of +/-2deg, and a range in lift-to-drag ratio of +/-0.035 for typical vehicle flight conditions.

Bibb, Karen L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗
NASA NTRS1995

The 1995 scientific assessment of the atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft

This report provides a scientific assessment of our knowledge concerning the impact of proposed high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft on the atmosphere. It comes at the end of Phase 1 of the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft element of the NASA High-Speed Research Program. The fundamental problem with stratospheric flight is that pollutant residence times are long because the stratosphere is a region of permanent temperature inversion with stable stratification. Using improved two-dimensional assessment models and detailed fleet emissions scenarios, the assessment examines the possible impact of the range of effluents from aircraft. Emphasis is placed on the effects of NO(x) and H2O on the atmospheric ozone content. Measurements in the plume of an in-flight Concorde supersonic transport indicated a large number of small particles. These measurements, coupled with model sensitivity studies, point out the importance of obtaining a more detailed understanding of the fate of sulfur in the HSCT exhaust. Uncertainties in the current understanding of the processes important for determining the overall effects of HSCT's on the atmosphere are discussed and partially quantified. Research directions are identified to improve the quantification of uncertainties and to reduce their magnitude.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging machine learning to enhance aerosol classification using Single-Particle Mass Spectrometry

Advancing automated classification of atmospheric aerosols from Single-Particle Mass Spectrometry (SPMS) data remains challenging due to overlapping ion signatures, compositional diversity, and limited labeled data. This study evaluates supervised and semi-supervised learning frameworks to enhance aerosol identification by jointly leveraging labeled and unlabeled spectra. Four models were compared: a supervised Support Vector Machine (SVM), a self-training SVM, a stacked autoencoder classifier, and a stacked autoencoder trained using a temporal-ensembling Mean Teacher approach. All models achieved high and stable accuracies (90.0 %–91.1 %), surpassing previous results on the same dataset (87 %) and matching the performance of state-of-the-art deep learning methods. Despite small global metric differences (≤ 1 %), semi-supervised variants yielded up to 5 %–10 % improvements for compositionally rare particle types – such as soot (0.77 % of spectra, F1-score: 0.93–0.97) and hazelnut pollen (0.98 % of spectra, F1-score: 0.97–1.00) – equating to roughly ∼ 187 additional correctly classified spectra. These gains are scientifically significant, as such rare particles exert disproportionate influence on radiative absorption and ice nucleation processes; their improved detection reduces modeled uncertainties in aerosol absorption optical depth and mixed-phase cloud ice nucleation rates. The models' residual misclassifications (≈ 9 %) largely arise from true spectral overlap among chemically adjacent species (e.g., Na- vs. K-feldspar, coated vs. uncoated feldspars), reflecting physical compositional continuity rather than algorithmic error. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that leveraging unlabeled data to learn robust spectral representations and refine classification enhances both fidelity and interpretability, bridging data-driven analysis with aerosol–climate process understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Using LASSO to bridge the gap between model and observations and to learn about atmospheric convection”

Atmospheric convection spans a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and involves complex interactions with the surrounding dynamic and thermodynamic environment, particularly over tropical continental regions. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models, including persistent biases in the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation that directly affect estimates of climate sensitivity. Addressing these challenges requires the combined use of high-resolution observations and cloud-resolving modeling frameworks. In this context, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Large-Eddy Simulation ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity provides a powerful platform that pairs comprehensive observations with numerical simulations to enable process-level understanding of atmospheric convection. Within this context, this Research and Development Partnership Pilot (RDPP) project was designed to initiate and expand DOE ARM/ASR research capacity at minority-serving institutions, while advancing scientific understanding of convective processes over the Amazon rainforest. Consistent with the RDPP mission, the project emphasized partnership development, training, and workforce capacity building alongside exploratory research activities. On the scientific side, the project produced two peer-reviewed journal articles, and one manuscript currently under review (see list in section 3.1). Together, these studies combine long-term ARM observations and cloud-resolving and convection-permitting modeling to investigate the environmental controls on the shallow-to-deep convective transition during the Amazon wet season. The results demonstrate the central role of early-day moisture preconditioning and large-scale dynamical forcing in regulating isolated deep convection, provide mechanistic insight into convective evolution, and establish physically informed modeling frameworks for future sensitivity experiments. These scientific outcomes are described in sections 2.1 to 2.3 and were disseminated in 8 conference presentations (see section 3.2) and 5 invited talks (see section 3.3), reflecting broad engagement with our community. Equally important, the project achieved its RDPP capacity-building objectives (see section 2.4). A sustained research partnership was established among the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), Morgan State University (MSU), and Howard University (HU), and extended to include collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The project organized multiple multi-day training events focused on ARM data, LASSO simulations, and quantitative analysis methods, directly engaging students, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty across institutions. These activities broadened participation in ASR research and led to independent adoption of LASSO workflows by students beyond the immediate project team. Finally, the project successfully positioned the participating institutions to pursue future DOE research. Preliminary scientific results, coupled with strengthened partnerships and technical capacity, enabled the submission of follow-on proposals to DOE ASR funding opportunities. In this way, the project fulfilled the RDPP goal of seeding durable research capacity and laying the foundation for larger-scale, sustained engagement with DOE ARM and ASR programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Surface Crystallization of Supercooled Water in Clouds

The process by which liquid cloud droplets homogeneously crystallize into ice is still not well-understood. The ice nucleation process based on the standard and classical theory of homogeneous freezing, initiates within the interior volume of a cloud droplet. Current experimental data on homogeneous freezing rates of ice in droplets of supercooled water, both in air and emulsion oil samples, show considerable scatter. For example, at -33 C, the reported volume-based freezing rates of ice in supercooled water vary by as much as 5 orders of magnitude, which is well outside the range of measurement uncertainties. Here, we show that the process of ice nucleus formation at the air (or oil)-liquid water interface may help to explain why experimental results on ice nucleation rates yield different results in different ambient phases. Our results also suggest that surface crystallization of ice in cloud droplets can explain why low amounts of supercooled water have been observed in the atmosphere near -40 C.

Tabazadeh, Azadeh↗