SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “probability and statistical methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 595 records · Page 33

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Aemulus Project. VI. Emulation of Beyond-standard Galaxy Clustering Statistics to Improve Cosmological Constraints

Abstract There is untapped cosmological information in galaxy redshift surveys in the nonlinear regime. In this work, we use the Aemulus suite of cosmological N -body simulations to construct Gaussian process emulators of galaxy clustering statistics at small scales (0.1–50 h −1 Mpc) in order to constrain cosmological and galaxy bias parameters. In addition to standard statistics—the projected correlation function w p ( r p ), the redshift-space monopole of the correlation function ξ 0 ( s ), and the quadrupole ξ 2 ( s )—we emulate statistics that include information about the local environment, namely the underdensity probability function P U ( s ) and the density-marked correlation function M ( s ). This extends the model of Aemulus III for redshift-space distortions by including new statistics sensitive to galaxy assembly bias. In recovery tests, we find that the beyond-standard statistics significantly increase the constraining power on cosmological parameters of interest: including P U ( s ) and M ( s ) improves the precision of our constraints on Ω m by 27%, σ 8 by 19%, and the growth of structure parameter, f σ 8 , by 12% compared to standard statistics. We additionally find that scales below ∼6 h −1 Mpc contain as much information as larger scales. The density-sensitive statistics also contribute to constraining halo occupation distribution parameters and a flexible environment-dependent assembly bias model, which is important for extracting the small-scale cosmological information as well as understanding the galaxy–halo connection. This analysis demonstrates the potential of emulating beyond-standard clustering statistics at small scales to constrain the growth of structure as a test of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Representativeness and Constituency of the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Network and Analysis of Complementarity with Existing Ecological Networks

Abstract Studies conducted at sites across ecological research networks usually strive to scale their results to larger areas, trying to reach conclusions that are valid throughout larger enclosing regions. Network representativeness and constituency can show how well conditions at sampling locations represent conditions also found elsewhere and can be used to help scale-up results over larger regions. Multivariate statistical methods have been used to design networks and select sites that optimize regional representation, thereby maximizing the value of datasets and research. However, in networks created from already established sites, an immediate challenge is to understand how well existing sites represent the range of environments in the whole area of interest. We performed an analysis to show how well sites in the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network represent all agricultural working lands within the conterminous United States (CONUS). Our analysis of 18 LTAR sites, based on 15 climatic and edaphic characteristics, produced maps of representativeness and constituency. Representativeness of the LTAR sites was quantified through an exhaustive pairwise Euclidean distance calculation in multivariate space, between the locations of experiments within each LTAR site and every 1 km cell across the CONUS. Network representativeness is from the perspective of all CONUS locations, but we also considered the perspective from each LTAR site. For every LTAR site, we identified the region that is best represented by that particular site—its constituency—as the set of 1 km grid locations best represented by the environmental drivers at that particular LTAR site. Representativeness shows how well the combination of characteristics at each CONUS location was represented by the LTAR sites’ environments, while constituency shows which LTAR site was the closest match for each location. LTAR representativeness was good across most of the CONUS. Representativeness for croplands was higher than for grazinglands, probably because croplands have more specific environmental criteria. Constituencies resemble ecoregions but have their environmental conditions “centered” on those at particular existing LTAR sites. Constituency of LTAR sites can be used to prioritize the locations of experimental research at or even within particular sites, or to identify the extents that can likely be included when generalizing knowledge across larger regions of the CONUS. Sites with a large constituency have generalist environments, while those with smaller constituency areas have more specialized environmental combinations. These “specialist” sites are the best representatives for smaller, more unusual areas. The potential of sharing complementary sites from the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to boost representativeness was also explored. LTAR network representativeness would benefit from borrowing several NEON sites and the Sevilleta LTER site. Later network additions must include such specialist sites that are targeted to represent unique missing environments. While this analysis exhaustively considered principal environmental characteristics related to production on working lands, we did not consider the focal agronomic systems under study, or their socio-economic context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance evaluation of cosmic ray muon trajectory estimation algorithms

Muons, being elementary particles with minimal interaction with nuclear materials and abundant at sea level, have sparked interest in utilizing them for imaging various applications, such as mining [Borselli et al., Sci. Rep. 12, 22329 (2022)], volcano imaging [Nagamine et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A, 356, 585(1995)], and underground tunnel detection [Guardincerri et al., Pure Appl. Geophys. 174, 2133 (2017)]. Recently, their use in nuclear nonproliferation and safeguard verification has gained attention, particularly in cargo screening for nuclear waste smuggling [Baesso et al., J. Instrum. 9, C10041 (2014)], source localization [L. J. Schultz et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A 519, 687 (2004)], and locating nuclear fuel debris in reactors [Borozdin et al., Phys. Rev. Let. 109, 152501 (2012)]. However, the resolution of muon image reconstruction techniques is limited due to multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS) within the target object. To achieve robust muon tomography, it is crucial to develop efficient and flexible physics-based algorithms that can model the MCS process accurately and estimate the most probable trajectory of muons as they pass through the target object. To address this limitation, in this study, a novel algorithmic approach utilizing the Bayesian probability theory and Gaussian approximation of MCS is chosen. Different energy levels, materials, and target sizes were considered in the evaluations. The results demonstrate that the Generalized Muon Trajectory Estimation (GMTE) algorithm offers significant improvements over currently used algorithms. Across all test scenarios, the GMTE algorithm demonstrated ~50% and 38% increase in precision compared to Straight Line Path (SLP) and Point of Closest Approach (PoCA) algorithms, respectively. Furthermore, it exhibited 10%–35% and 10%–15% increases in muon flux utilization for high and medium Z materials, respectively, compared to the PoCA algorithm. In conclusion, the extensive simulations confirm the enhanced performance and efficiency of the GMTE algorithm, offering improved resolution and reduced measurement time for cosmic ray muon imaging compared to the current SLP and PoCA algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1994

A quick look method of detecting water of hydration in small solar system bodies

The action of aqueous alteration of the near-subsurface material on asteroids and probably some satellites in the Solar System constitutes part of the formation history of the Solar System. The C-class asteroids (and subclasses B, G, and F) were initially believed to have undergone aqueous alteration based on their low albedos and neutral broadband visible and near-infrared colors. These spectra exhibit a sharp drop at wavelengths shorter than 0.55 microns due to a strong ferric oxide intervalence change transfer transition. This IVCT comprises multiple absorptions that are not uniquely indicative of phyllosilicates, but rather are present in the spectrum of any object containing Fe(2+) and Fe(3+) in its surface material. A definitive indication of aqueous alteration came when the broad IR absorption feature having a minimum near 3.0 microns indicative of structural hydroxyl (OH) and interlayer and and absorbed water in phyllosilicates was identified in the IR photometry of many C-class asteroids. Additional mineralogical compositional evidence of aqueously-altered asteroids has come as the result of high SNR narrowband spectrophotometry in the visible and near-infrared spectral regions taken using a CCD/spectrograph combination. An absorption feature centered at 0.7 microns indicative of an Fe(2+) - Fe(3+) charge transfer transition in oxidized iron in phyllosilicates in spectra of some low-albedo asteroids, especially C and G class, and CM2 carbonaceous chondrite meteorites was identified in the CCD spectra. The correlation and covariance of the 0.7-micron and 3.0-micron features were examined by comparing observations of asteroids common to both the CCD reflectance spectra and the 3.0-micron multicolor photometry data sets. Thirty-one pairs of observations were included in this training group. The results of the statistical study indicate that with a 95% confidence level, 84% of the objects observed either having or not having the 0.7-micron feature will correspondingly have the 3.0-micron water of hydration feature.

Vilas, F.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Extending the SAGA Survey (xSAGA). I. Satellite Radial Profiles as a Function of Host-galaxy Properties

We present "Extending the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs Survey" (xSAGA), a method for identifying low-z galaxies on the basis of optical imaging and results on the spatial distributions of xSAGA satellites around host galaxies. Using spectroscopic redshift catalogs from the SAGA Survey as a training data set, we have optimized a convolutional neural network (CNN) to identify z < 0.03 galaxies from more-distant objects using image cutouts from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. From the sample of >100,000 CNN-selected low-z galaxies, we identify >20,000 probable satellites located between 36–300 projected kpc from NASA-Sloan Atlas central galaxies in the stellar-mass range $9.5\lt \mathrm{log}({M}_{\star }/{M}_{\odot })\lt 11$. We characterize the incompleteness and contamination for CNN-selected samples and apply corrections in order to estimate the true number of satellites as a function of projected radial distance from their hosts. Satellite richness depends strongly on host stellar mass, such that more-massive host galaxies have more satellites, and on host morphology, such that elliptical hosts have more satellites than disky hosts with comparable stellar masses. We also find a strong inverse correlation between satellite richness and the magnitude gap between a host and its brightest satellite. The normalized satellite radial distribution between 36–300 kpc does not depend on host stellar mass, morphology, or magnitude gap. The satellite abundances and radial distributions we measure are in reasonable agreement with predictions from hydrodynamic simulations. Our results deliver unprecedented statistical power for studying satellite galaxy populations and highlight the promise of using machine-learning for extending galaxy samples of wide-area surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projection algorithm for state preparation on quantum computers

We present an efficient method to prepare states of a many-body system on quantum hardware, first isolating individual quantum numbers and then using time evolution to isolate the energy. Our method in its simplest form requires only one additional auxiliary qubit. The total time evolved for an accurate solution is proportional to the ratio of the spectrum range of the trial state to the gap to the lowest excited state, a substantial improvement over other projection algorithms, and the accuracy increases exponentially with the time evolved. Isolating the quantum numbers is efficient because of the known eigenvalues and increases the gap thus shortening the propagation time required. The success rate of the algorithm, or the probability of producing the desired state, is a simple function of measurement times and phases and is dominated by the square overlap of the original state to the desired state. We present examples from the nuclear shell model and the Heisenberg model. In conclusion, we compare this algorithm to previous algorithms for short evolution times and discuss potential further improvements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Case studies in bias reduction and inference for electronic health record data with selection bias and phenotype misclassification

Electronic health records (EHR) are not designed for population‐based research, but they provide easy and quick access to longitudinal health information for a large number of individuals. Many statistical methods have been proposed to account for selection bias, missing data, phenotyping errors, or other problems that arise in EHR data analysis. However, addressing multiple sources of bias simultaneously is challenging. We developed a methodological framework (R package, SAMBA ) for jointly handling both selection bias and phenotype misclassification in the EHR setting that leverages external data sources. These methods assume factors related to selection and misclassification are fully observed, but these factors may be poorly understood and partially observed in practice. As a follow‐up to the methodological work, we demonstrate how to apply these methods for two real‐world case studies, and we evaluate their performance. In both examples, we use individual patient‐level data collected through the University of Michigan Health System and various external population‐based data sources. In case study (a), we explore the impact of these methods on estimated associations between gender and cancer diagnosis. In case study (b), we compare corrected associations between previously identified genetic loci and age‐related macular degeneration with gold standard external summary estimates. These case studies illustrate how to utilize diverse auxiliary information to achieve less biased inference in EHR‐based research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗

DOE OSTI2020

Weak scaling of the contact distance between two fluctuating interfaces with system size

A pair of flat parallel surfaces, each freely diffusing along the direction of their separation, will eventually come into contact. If the shapes of these surfaces also fluctuate, then contact will occur when their centers-of-mass remain separated by a nonzero distance ℓ. An example of such a situation is the motion of interfaces between two phases at conditions of thermodynamic coexistence, and in particular the annihilation of domain wall pairs under periodic boundary conditions. Here we present a general approach to calculate the probability distribution of the contact distance ℓ and determine how its most likely value ℓ* depends on the surfaces' lateral size L. Using the Edward-Wilkinson equation as a model for interfaces, we demonstrate that ℓ* scales weakly with system size, i.e., the dependence of ℓ* on L for both (1+1)- and (2+1)-dimensional interfaces is such that lim L→∞ (ℓ*/L) = 0. In particular, for (2+1)-dimensional interfaces ℓ* is an algebraic function of logL, a result that is confirmed by computer simulations of slab-shaped domains formed under periodic boundary conditions. Overall, this weak scaling implies that such domains remain topologically intact until ℓ becomes very small compared to the lateral size of the interface, contradicting expectations from equilibrium thermodynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identifying and tracking bubbles and drops in simulations: A toolbox for obtaining sizes, lineages, and breakup and coalescence statistics

Knowledge of bubble and drop size distributions in two-phase flows is important for characterizing a wide range of phenomena, including combustor ignition, sonar communication, and cloud formation. The physical mechanisms driving the background flow also drive the time evolution of these distributions. Accurate and robust identification and tracking algorithms for the dispersed phase are necessary to reliably measure this evolution and thereby quantify the underlying mechanisms in interface-resolving flow simulations. The identification of individual bubbles and drops traditionally relies on an algorithm used to identify connected regions. This traditional algorithm can be sensitive to the presence of spurious structures. A cost-effective refinement is proposed to maximize volume accuracy while minimizing the identification of spurious bubbles and drops. An accurate identification scheme is crucial for distinguishing bubble and drop pairs with large size ratios. The identified bubbles and drops need to be tracked in time to obtain breakup and coalescence statistics that characterize the evolution of the size distribution, including breakup and coalescence frequencies, and the probability distributions of parent and child bubble and drop sizes. An algorithm based on mass conservation is proposed to construct bubble and drop lineages using simulation snapshots that are not necessarily from consecutive time steps. These lineages are then used to detect breakup and coalescence events, and obtain the desired statistics. Accurate identification of large-size-ratio bubble and drop pairs enables accurate detection of breakup and coalescence events over a large size range. Accurate detection of successive breakup and coalescence events requires that the snapshot interval be an order of magnitude smaller than the characteristic breakup and coalescence times to capture these successive events while minimizing the identification of repeated confounding events. Together, these algorithms serve as a toolbox for detailed analysis of two-phase simulations, and enable insights into the mechanisms behind bubble and drop formation and evolution in flows of practical importance.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rare Events via Cross-Entropy Population Monte Carlo

Rare events are events that happen with very low frequency. Estimating rare event probabilities using Monte Carlo techniques is computationally expensive, often to the point of intractability, and special methods are required. Importance sampling (IS) is a well known technique that uses a proposal distribution in place of a target distribution to lower the variance of the estimator. Key to the success of IS methods is the choice of a proposal distribution, or the parameters governing the distribution. Adaptive importance sampling improves the parameters of a family or population of proposal distributions iteratively through trials. We present a novel cross-entropy population Monte Carlo algorithm, which adapts the parameters of proposals through the cross-entropy method. The proposed method stands apart from previous work in that we are not optimizing a mixture distribution. Instead, we leverage deterministic mixture weights and optimize the distributions individually through a reinterpretation of the typical derivation of the cross-entropy method. Demonstrations on rare event examples show that the algorithm can outperform existing resampling based population Monte Carlo methods, especially for higher-dimensional problems. Finally, we also demonstrate efficacy on a conjunction analysis problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact Real World System Validation

Introduction NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model. This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. A validation analysis of IMPACT was performed with respect to a set of International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle Transportation System (STS) real world system (RWS) referent data due to the limited referent data available from exploration missions. Methods Observed mission and crew characteristics from STS and ISS missions were used as model inputs within MEDPRAT (Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool). For each mission, two hundred thousand simulations were generated. For each mission, model outputs included occurrence counts for each condition, total medical events (TME), and the probability of loss of crew life (LOCL). These simulated model outputs were compared to the RWS referent data. Results The predicted number of total medical events exceeded the total RWS medical events for ISS missions and combined ISS and STS missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for STS missions. For the 32 ISS missions simulated by IMPACT, the number of total medical events was overpredicted for 19 missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for 13 missions. For the 21 STS missions, the total number of medical events was overpredicted for 3 missions, fell within the 90% confidence interval for 16 missions, and was underpredicted for 2 missions. Combined, 29 missions were in range, 22 were overpredicted, and 2 were underpredicted. The predicted LOCL probability for the 32 ISS missions, the 21 STS missions, and the combined ISS and STS missions was consistent with the zero LOCL events observed in the RWS referent data. The validation analysis included a comparison of the number of medical events predicted by IMPACT and the number of medical events observed in the RWS data on a condition-by-condition basis. For ISS missions, 50 conditions were in range, 52 conditions were statistically underpowered (not enough observed sample to draw any conclusions on precision), 8 conditions were overpredicted, and 9 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 14% (17/119) of conditions were out of range for STS missions, 40 conditions were in range, 59 conditions were statistically underpowered, 10 conditions were overpredicted, and 10 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 17% (20/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 11 conditions were overpredicted, and 11 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 18% (22/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 49 conditions were in range, 46 conditions were statistically underpowered, 18 conditions were overpredicted, and 8 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, 21% (26/121) of conditions were out of range. Conclusion The results of this validation analysis should not be interpreted as a pass/fail test of the validity of IMPACT. Instead, this validation analysis should be used to assess some of the IMPACT outcomes in terms of consistencies and inconsistencies with the ISS and STS RWS referent data.

L. Boley↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Market Survey 2020: Commercial Clinical Decision Support Systems and Wellness Tools

For long-duration, deep space exploration missions, current methods for managing and supporting crew health and medical conditions will be unsuitable. Communication and data transmission lags will necessitate the use of a sophisticated clinical decision support system (CDSS) that will tailor diagnosis and treatment guidance that is context-sensitive for anticipated astronaut health, wellness, and medical conditions. A variety of clinical decision support (CDS) and wellness tools (WT) are currently available in the commercial market and a broad-brush survey of this market can provide an initial impression of the current state of the art which, in turn, can inform the roadmap of NASA deep space CDSS development and associated requirements. Such a survey was undertaken during the first six months of 2020 using directed convenience sampling to obtain information provided by vendors on their websites; both commercially available CDS and WT (such as those used to track and monitor nutrition, exercise, and sleep) were included. Areas assessed were item type (e.g., software/application, device); primary purpose of the item (e.g., diagnostic support, nutrition tracking); additional purposes (if any); reported features, capabilities, and functionality; setting of use (e.g., inpatient, outpatient); intended user (e.g., clinician, patient); location and sources of data/information used or produced by the item; integration with patient electronic health record (EHR); compliance with interoperability ontologies and standards (e.g., Health Level 7 [HL7], Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine – Clinical Terminology [SNOMED-CT]); and whether the item is knowledge-based (derived from research findings) or non-knowledge-based (derived through artificial intelligence, machine learning, advanced probability and statistics), among others. Ninety-seven (97) vendor websites describing 196 CDS and 73 WT (269 total) were reviewed and coded. The primary purpose of the majority of CDS reviewed is diagnosis or diagnosis/treatment/drug decision support—targeted for clinician use— and the primary purpose of the majority of WT reviewed is the monitoring of different health metrics, most often through the use of a biosensor device (e.g., blood pressure)—targeted for patient use. Very few CDS or WT appear to comply with major international interoperability standards or can be integrated with a patient’s EHR data. None consider contextual factors, such as conditions of the physical environment (e.g., CO2 levels). The majority of CDS and WT reviewed are non-knowledge, cloud- or web-based applications or software. Forty-three (43) major findings were identified and the implications those findings have for NASA will be discussed. Example major findings include: CDS-WT capabilities range from diagnosis to treatment applications, CDS-WT may be wearable or non-wearable and are technologically advanced and only a few CDS-WT tools referenced compliance to ensure interoperability, among other findings. Recommendations will also be offered that will help to address ExMC Gap, Medical-701: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.

market survey↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Setting the Bar for the Replacement of the Probability of Collision Metric

To date, satellite conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis has largely embraced the probability of collision (Pc) as the omnibus metric to evaluate collision likelihood, and its use in such assessments has mostly been straightforward: at the point at which a conjunction mitigation decision is required, the calculated Pc is compared to a threshold; and if the calculated Pc exceeds that threshold, then a mitigation action is warranted. With only minor variation, this approach is employed by major CA risk assessment centers (e.g., NASA, EUSST, CNES, JAXA) and is advanced as the preferred method in the published CA best practices handbooks. Despite this near unanimity of operational practice, there is a major strain of secondary literature critical of the Pc and willing to propose alternatives. Alfano (2005) pointed out the ability of the Pc to underrepresent the risk in certain situations and counselled a maximum Pc construct. Carpenter (2017, 2019) reiterated this criticism and proposed using instead a confidence interval on the miss distance. Balch et al. (2019) identified what they argued was a defect in the entire Bayesian Pc construct and believed that the use of a more conservative methodology based on covariance ellipsoid overlap was necessary. Delande (2022) introduced the framework of collision “plausibility” to the risk assessment process and sketched out how this might be used operationally. Elkantassi (2022) published a full development of the miss distance confidence interval approach and applied it to several worked examples. While these different approaches to collision risk assessment do differ in their details, they all converge on two central points: first, the Pc’s failure to give an adequate expression of the risk in dilution region situations is a fatal flaw; and second, a conjunction should be presumed risky and in need of mitigation until the evidence of the situation can establish otherwise. These criticisms, if correct, would counsel a number of modifications to current CA operational practice; as such, they force a re-examination of fundamental aspects of the CA problem, including the following: 1. Is the CA risk assessment a probability problem, a statistics problem, or something else? 2. If it is a statistics problem, does it lend itself naturally to a hypothesis test construction? 3. If it can be construed as a hypothesis test, what form should the null hypothesis take, to wit: what constraints exist on the choice of the null hypothesis, what selections are in best alignment with all of the attendant parameters of the problem, and what is implied philosophically by different choices? 4. What are the implications of using the different proposed risk assessment parameters for CA? This question should be answered both in determining how frequently the dilution region situation cited by the critics of the Pc actually appears in an operationally significant manner and the missed detection and false alarm rates of all of the proposed risk assessment metrics, compared both to the Pc and to each other. This paper explores and offers preliminary answers to the above questions, presenting a researched treatment of the philosophical nature of the CA problem and the null hypothesis choice that achieves the greatest consistency with all of the different aspects of operational CA conduct. It then profiles all of the different proposed risk assessment metrics enumerated in the earlier paragraph against an extremely large database of conjunction events at both the 550km and 700km altitudes. The combination of the philosophical exploration of the CA problem and the results of the profiling activity articulates what a risk assessment metric will need to demonstrate, in terms of both innate construction and performance, in order to be a true competitor to the Pc.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modelling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) group at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Applied Meteorology Unit: Nineteen Years Successfully Transitioning Research into Operations for America's Space Program

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) provides technology transition and technique development to improve operational weather support to the Space Shuttle and the entire American space program. The AMU is funded and managed by NASA and operated by a contractor that provides five meteorologists with a diverse mix of advanced degrees, operational experience, and associated skills including data processing, statistics, and the development of graphical user interfaces. The AMU's primary customers are the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Air Force Base, the National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group at NASA Johnson Space Center, and the National Weather Service Melbourne FL Forecast Office. The AMU has transitioned research into operations for nineteen years and worked on a wide range of topics, including new forecasting techniques for lightning probability, synoptic peak winds,.convective winds, and summer severe weather; satellite tools to predict anvil cloud trajectories and evaluate camera line of sight for Space Shuttle launch; optimized radar scan strategies; evaluated and implemented local numerical models; evaluated weather sensors; and many more. The AMU has completed 113 projects with 5 more scheduled to be completed by the end of 2010. During this rich history, the AMU and its customers have learned many lessons on how to effectively transition research into operations. Some of these lessons learned include collocating with the operational customer and periodically visiting geographically separated customers, operator submitted projects, consensus tasking process, use of operator primary advocates for each project, customer AMU liaisons with experience in both operations and research, flexibility in adapting the project plan based on lessons learned during the project, and incorporating training and other transition assistance into the project plans. Operator involvement has been critical to the AMU's remarkable success and many awards from NASA, the National Weather Association, and two citations from the Navy's Center of Excellence for Best Manufacturing Practices. This paper will present the AMU's proven methods and explain how they may be applied by other organizations to effectively transition research into operations.

Madura, John T.↗