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Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments

There is an increasing aspiration to utilize machine learning (ML) for various tasks of relevance to national security. ML models have thus far been mostly applied to tasks and domains that, while impactful, have sufficient volume of data. For predictive tasks of national security relevance, ML models of great capacity (ability to approximate nonlinear trends in input-output maps) are often needed to capture the complex underlying physics. However, scientific problems of relevance to national security are often accompanied by various sources of sparse and/or incomplete data, including experiments and simulations, across different regimes of operation, of varying degrees of fidelity, and include noise with different characteristics and/or intensity. State-of-the-art ML models, despite exhibiting superior performance on the task and domain they were trained on, may suffer detrimental loss in performance in such sparse data environments. This report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project entitled Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments. The objective of the project was to develop a new transfer learning (TL) framework that aims to adaptively blend the data across different sources in tackling one task of interest, resulting in enhanced trustworthiness of ML models for mission- and safety-critical systems. The proposed framework determines when it is worth applying TL and how much knowledge is to be transferred, despite uncontrollable uncertainties. The framework accomplishes this by leveraging concepts and techniques from the fields of Bayesian inverse modeling and uncertainty quantification, relying on strong mathematical foundations of probability and measure theories to devise new uncertainty-aware TL workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code

The MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) code is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tool used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. This report describes the modeling framework, implementation, verification, and benchmarking of a GDP-based model for economic losses that has recently been developed as an alternative to the original cost-based economic loss model in MACCS. The GDP-based model has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS and is now called the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM). It is based on input-output theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is designed to be used to estimate impacts for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct. Both the original and the RDEIM economic loss models account for costs from evacuation and relocation, decontamination, depreciation, and condemnation. Where the original model accounts for an expected rate of return, based on the value of property, that is lost during interdiction, the RDEIM model instead accounts for losses of GDP based on the industrial sectors located within a county. The original model includes costs for disposal of crops and milk that the RDEIM model currently does not, but these costs tend to contribute insignificantly to the overall losses. This document discusses three verification exercises to demonstrate that the RDEIM model is implemented correctly in MACCS. It also describes a benchmark study at five nuclear power plants chosen to represent the spectrum of U.S. commercial sites. The benchmarks provide perspective on the expected differences between the RDEIM and the original cost-based economic loss models. The RDEIM model is shown to consistently predict larger losses than the original model, probably in part because it accounts for national losses by including indirect and induced losses; whereas, the original model only accounts for regional losses. Nonetheless, the RDEIM model predicts losses that are remarkably consistent with the original cost-based model, differing by 16% at most for the five sites combined with three source terms considered in this benchmark.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

VpROM: a novel variational autoencoder-boosted reduced order model for the treatment of parametric dependencies in nonlinear systems

Reduced Order Models (ROMs) are of considerable importance in many areas of engineering in which computational time presents difficulties. Established approaches employ projection-based reduction, such as Proper Orthogonal Decomposition. The limitation of the linear nature of such operators is typically tackled via a library of local reduction subspaces, which requires the assembly of numerous local ROMs to address parametric dependencies. Our work attempts to define a more generalisable mapping between parametric inputs and reduced bases for the purpose of generative modeling. We propose the use of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) in place of the typically utilised clustering or interpolation operations, for inferring the fundamental vectors, termed as modes, which approximate the manifold of the model response for any and each parametric input state. The derived ROM still relies on projection bases, built on the basis of full-order model simulations, thus retaining the imprinted physical connotation. However, it additionally exploits a matrix of coefficients that relates each local sample response and dynamics to the global phenomena across the parametric input domain. The VAE scheme is utilised for approximating these coefficients for any input state. This coupling leads to a high-precision low-order representation, which is particularly suited for problems where model dependencies or excitation traits cause the dynamic behavior to span multiple response regimes. Moreover, the probabilistic treatment of the VAE representation allows for uncertainty quantification on the reduction bases, which may then be propagated to the ROM response. The performance of the proposed approach is validated on an open-source simulation benchmark featuring hysteresis and multi-parametric dependencies, and on a large-scale wind turbine tower characterised by nonlinear material behavior and model uncertainty.

Conditional VAEs↗

Trajectory design via unsupervised probabilistic learning on optimal manifolds

Abstract This article illustrates the use of unsupervised probabilistic learning techniques for the analysis of planetary reentry trajectories. A three-degree-of-freedom model was employed to generate optimal trajectories that comprise the training datasets. The algorithm first extracts the intrinsic structure in the data via a diffusion map approach. We find that data resides on manifolds of much lower dimensionality compared to the high-dimensional state space that describes each trajectory. Using the diffusion coordinates on the graph of training samples, the probabilistic framework subsequently augments the original data with samples that are statistically consistent with the original set. The augmented samples are then used to construct conditional statistics that are ultimately assembled in a path planning algorithm. In this framework, the controls are determined stage by stage during the flight to adapt to changing mission objectives in real-time.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uncertain characterization of reservoir fluids due to brittleness of equation of state regression

Equations of state (EoS) play a central role in modeling the phase equilibrium of fluid mixtures. Their parameterization involves fitting a model to experimental data, i.e., solving a nonlinear, non-convex, multivariate optimization problem. The latter requires one to select design variables, domains of definition for each variable, and weights assigned to individual measurements. We demonstrate that subjective choices of an optimization algorithm and an initial guess also impact the regression process. Consequently, EoS predictions are fundamentally uncertain even after the EoS tuning to a limited set of experimental data points. We demonstrate this observation for two hydrocarbon reservoir fluids, in which five properties of the heaviest carbon fraction are treated as design variables. While all the optimization algorithms and initial guesses match experimental data for the gas and liquid properties, the resulting EoS parameterizations lead to dramatically different predictions of the fluid’s thermophysical behavior in the unsampled pressure and temperature regions. In conclusion, we propose the probabilistic treatment of design variables to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the resulting fluid models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Small angle scattering of diblock copolymers profiled by machine learning

We outline a machine learning strategy for quantitively determining the conformation of AB-type diblock copolymers with excluded volume effects using small angle scattering. Complemented by computer simulations, a correlation matrix connecting conformations of different copolymers according to their scattering features is established on the mathematical framework of a Gaussian process, a multivariate extension of the familiar univariate Gaussian distribution. We show that the relevant conformational characteristics of copolymers can be probabilistically inferred from their coherent scattering cross sections without any restriction imposed by model assumptions. This work not only facilitates the quantitative structural analysis of copolymer solutions but also provides the reliable benchmarking for the related theoretical development of scattering functions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Earthquake Phase Association Using a Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model

Earthquake phase association algorithms aggregate picked seismic phases from a network of seismometers into individual seismic events and play an important role in earthquake monitoring and research. Dense seismic networks and improved phase picking methods produce massive seismic phase datasets, particularly for earthquake swarms and aftershocks occurring closely in time and space, making phase association a challenging problem. Here, we present a new association method, the Gaussian Mixture Model Association (GaMMA), that combines the Gaussian mixture model with earthquake location, origin time, and magnitude estimation. We treat earthquake phase association as an unsupervised clustering problem in a probabilistic framework, where each earthquake corresponds to a cluster of P and S phases with a hyperbolic moveout of arrival times and a decay of amplitude with distance. We use the multivariate Gaussian distribution to model the collection of phase picks of an event; and the mean of the multivariate Gaussian distribution is given by the predicted arrival time and amplitude from the causative event. We carry out the pick assignment to each earthquake and determine earthquake source parameters (i.e., earthquake location, origin time, and magnitude) under the maximum likelihood criterion using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The GaMMA method does not require typical association steps of other algorithms, such as grid-search or supervised training. The results for both synthetic tests and for the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence show that GaMMA effectively associates phases from a temporally and spatially dense earthquake sequence while producing useful estimates of earthquake location and magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating the impact of anatomical and physiological variability on human equivalent doses using PBPK models

Abstract Addressing human anatomical and physiological variability is a crucial component of human health risk assessment of chemicals. Experts have recommended probabilistic chemical risk assessment paradigms in which distributional adjustment factors are used to account for various sources of uncertainty and variability, including variability in the pharmacokinetic behavior of a given substance in different humans. In practice, convenient assumptions about the distribution forms of adjustment factors and human equivalent doses (HEDs) are often used. Parameters such as tissue volumes and blood flows are likewise often assumed to be lognormally or normally distributed without evaluating empirical data for consistency with these forms. In this work, we performed dosimetric extrapolations using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for dichloromethane (DCM) and chloroform that incorporate uncertainty and variability to determine if the HEDs associated with such extrapolations are approximately lognormal and how they depend on the underlying distribution shapes chosen to represent model parameters. We accounted for uncertainty and variability in PBPK model parameters by randomly drawing their values from a variety of distribution types. We then performed reverse dosimetry to calculate HEDs based on animal points of departure for each set of sampled parameters. Corresponding samples of HEDs were tested to determine the impact of input parameter distributions on their central tendencies, extreme percentiles, and degree of conformance to lognormality. This work demonstrates that the measurable attributes of human variability should be considered more carefully and that generalized assumptions about parameter distribution shapes may lead to inaccurate estimates of extreme percentiles of HEDs.

Toxicology↗

Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

This paper introduces an approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose a measure termed “ecological resilience through adaptation,” specifically tailored to noisy, forced systems that undergo physiological adaptation in the face of stressful environmental changes. Randomness plays a key role, accounting for model uncertainty and the inherent variability in the dynamical response among components of biological systems. Our measure of resilience is rooted in the probabilistic description of states within these systems and is defined in terms of the dynamics of the ensemble average of a model-specific observable quantifying success or well-being. Our approach utilizes stochastic linear response theory to compute how the expected success of a system, originally in statistical equilibrium, dynamically changes in response to a environmental perturbation and a subsequent adaptation. Importantly, the resulting mathematical derivations allow for the estimation of resilience in terms of ensemble averages of simulated or experimental data. Finally, through a simple but clear conceptual example, we illustrate how our resilience measure can be interpreted and compared to other existing frameworks in the literature. The methodology is general but inspired by applications in plant systems, with the potential for broader application to complex biological processes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep-Learning-Based Koopman Modeling for Online Control Synthesis of Nonlinear Power System Transient Dynamics

Power system stability and control have become more challenging due to the increasing uncertainty associated with renewable generation. Here, the performance of conventional control is highly driven by the physics-based offline-developed dynamic models that can deviate from the actual system characteristics under different operating conditions and/or configurations. Data-driven approaches based on online measurements can be a better solution to addressing these issues by capturing real-time operation conditions. This article describes a novel fully data-driven probabilistic framework to derive a linear representation of postcontingency grid dynamics and online prescribe control based on the derived model to enhance transient stability. The complex nonlinear power system dynamics is approximated by a linear model by using multiple neural network modules that infer distributions of the observations and introducing a Koopman layer to sample possible Koopman linear models from the inferred distributions. The trained model features linearity that can be easily incorporated into the existing linear control design paradigm and ease the controller design process. The effectiveness of Koopman-based control designs is validated through comparative case studies, which demonstrate increased prediction accuracy and control performance when applied to a power system with heterogeneous generator dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Process prediction and detection of faults using probabilistic bidirectional recurrent neural networks on real plant data

Attaining Industry 4.0 for manufacturing operations requires advanced monitoring systems and real-time data analytics of plant data, among other topics. We propose a Probabilistic Bidirectional Recurrent Network (PBRN) for industrial process monitoring for the early detection of faults. The model is based on a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network that allows the model to retain long-term dependencies between sensor data along a time horizon, hence learning the dynamic behavior of the process. To reduce the false-positive detection rate of the model, we compel the model to learn from a highly noisy sensor reading while outputting noise-free sensor outputs. The performance of the proposed model is compared to other data-driven statistical process monitoring schemes using real plant data from an industrial Air Separations Unit (ASU) containing noisy sensor readings. We show that the model can learn from noisy data without reducing its performance. Using two different fault cases, we demonstrate the model’s ability to carry out early fault detection with average false-positive rates of 2.9% and 4.9% for both fault cases. The missed detection rates are 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Updated Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code RDEIM Model Report for MACCS v4.2

This report updates the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM) GDP-based model described in Bixler et al. (2020) used in the MACCS accident consequence analysis code. MACCS is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. The update of the RDEIM model in version 4.2 expresses the national recovery calculation explicitly, rather than implicitly as in the previous version. The calculation of the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. However, anticipated gains from recovery are now allocated across all the GDP loss types – direct, indirect, and induced – whereas in version 4.1, all recovery gains were accounted for in the indirect loss type. To achieve this, we’ve introduced new methodology to streamline and simplify the calculation of all types of losses and recovery. In addition, RDEIM includes other kinds of losses, including tangible wealth. This includes loss of tangible assets (e.g., depreciation) and accident expenditures (e.g., decontamination). This document describes the updated RDEIM economic model and provides examples of loss and recovery calculation, results analysis, and presentation. Changes to the tangible cost calculation and accident expenditures are described in section 2.2. The updates to the RDEIM input-output (I-O) model are not expected to affect the final benchmark results Bixler et al. (2020), as the RDEIM calculation for the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. The reader is referred to the MACCS revision history for other cost modelling changes since version 4.0 that may affect the benchmark. RDEIM has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS. It is based on I-O theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double-counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is intended to be used for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Online data-driven changepoint detection for high-dimensional dynamical systems

In this study, the detection of anomalies or transitions in complex dynamical systems is of critical importance to various applications. In this study, we propose the use of machine learning to detect changepoints for high-dimensional dynamical systems. Here, changepoints indicate instances in time when the underlying dynamical system has a fundamentally different characteristic—which may be due to a change in the model parameters or due to intermittent phenomena arising from the same model. We propose two complementary approaches to achieve this, with the first devised using arguments from probabilistic unsupervised learning and the latter devised using supervised deep learning. To accelerate the deployment of transition detection algorithms in high-dimensional dynamical systems, we introduce dimensionality reduction techniques. Our experiments demonstrate that transitions can be detected efficiently, in real-time, for the two-dimensional forced Kolmogorov flow and the Rössler dynamical system, which are characterized by anomalous regimes in phase space where dynamics are perturbed off the attractor at potentially uneven intervals. Finally, we also demonstrate how variations in the frequency of detected changepoints may be utilized to detect a significant modification to the underlying model parameters by utilizing the Lorenz-63 dynamical system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dose Consequence and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Integration into Digital Documented Safety Analysis

This is an intern poster presentation. The current reactor authorization process is complex and error prone. The development of a digital Documented Safety Analysis has been proposed to provide an automated and integrated solution to enhance the design and authorization process. The digital DSA will consist of interlinked models, analyses, and reports, all of which will be updated using automated workflows when design changes are made. This poster examines the integration of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with the transient and dose consequence analyses. A PRA for a generic high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) has been constructed which will drive the input parameters for a transient analysis model currently being constructed. Dose consequence will be determined using the results of the transient analysis and the Radiation Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) code. Dose consequence data will then be input back into the PRA to drive design parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantifying the effect of late bombardment on terrestrial zircons

The first 500 million years of Earth history is thought to be a period of intense planetary bombardment, but the timing and flux of this meteorite bombardment is poorly understood. In particular, on the basis of an inferred lunar impact history, some workers have hypothesized a ~3.9 Ga terminal cataclysm (TC) in which there was marked increase in the impact flux affecting the Moon, the Earth and possibly other terrestrial planets. Minerals that survived this enigmatic period offer a way to test early planetary bombardment models as they may contain telltale micro- to nanoscale shock features. Here, we present results from a numerical modeling calculation that assesses the probability that a zircon residing in the crust would escape shock melting or shock deformation during a TC bombardment event. Even with conservative pressure estimates for zircon shock deformation and intermediate bombardment intensities, we find that only ~6% of ≥4.0 Ga crust would be expected to survive a 3.9 Ga cataclysm without experiencing either complete melting or zircon shock metamorphism. In this study, we couple this modeling with a search for shock effects in the oldest zircons from the Acasta Gneiss Complex, which would have been present in the Earth's crust during a putative 3.9 Ga TC. Spatially correlated electron and NanoSIMS ion microscopy of 4.02 Ga igneous zircons from Acasta reveals no evidence of ancient shock. These data, together with similar results from other Hadean zircon suites, confirm that a post-Hadean TC is unlikely to have occurred. We suggest that the dearth of pre-3.9 Ga terrestrial crust and zircons is instead best explained by endogenic processes related to the mechanisms of early crust formation. Our modeling allows us to evaluate bombardment scenarios from the terrestrial zircon record by applying probabilistic interpretations to zircon shock deformation data. This approach will be valuable for other planetary bodies, allowing broader conclusions to be drawn from geographically limited datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wildfire Risk Evaluation Framework for Grid Operations and Planning

The United States (US) environmental protection agency's (EPA's) climate change indicators for wildfires show a long-term trend of increased annual wildfire activity, larger wildfire size, and more variable dynamics in wildfire behavior. This has caused more frequent preemptive public safety power shutoff (PSPS) events in the regions with recognized high wildfire risk. These preemptive power shutoffs attempt to prevent the ignition of a wildfire but it nonetheless renders the transmission line non-operational, which often sheds load of downstream communities. As wildfires and PSPS events become more frequent, it is crucial to find the communities most at risk of load shedding. To that end, this paper proposes the wildfire risk evaluation of the system (WiRES) framework, which is a performance-based framework that translates extreme weather-related and PSPS event probabilities into a cumulative probability of a non-operational transmission line. This study also provides a geospatial visualization tool that breaks down the entire western electrical coordinating council (WECC) region into 50 km grid cells which can be used to 1) filter out transmission lines with higher than a threshold outage probability, and 2) graphically discover the affected regions and their biophysical and socioeconomic metrics. %such as the social vulnerability index, population density, gross domestic product, etc. Lastly, an impact assessment study is conducted which connects the results of the proposed framework to python and powerworld-based contingency analysis to highlight the applicability of the framework.

Wildfire, Resilience, Extreme Events, Grid Reslien↗

Developing Generic Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors and Causal Alpha Factors

This report is a revision of the original report, INL/LTD-17-43723. Distribution of the original report was to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) only, and the report was not made available to the public. The original report was revised as this report for public distribution. This report presents the latest update of generic prior distributions for common cause failure (CCF) alpha factors, as well as the development of new generic prior distributions for CCF causal alpha factors. The history of CCF treatment and parameter estimations is reviewed. The existing process for developing generic prior distributions is reviewed and used to develop new priors for CCF alpha factors and causal alpha factors. For causal alpha factors, different priors are developed for the five different CCF cause groups: Component (GC), Design (GD), Environment (GE), Human (GH), and Other (GO). These generic prior distributions could be used in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models for CCF parameter estimation. The issues and preliminary thoughts regarding prior distribution development are documented. Potential future work is then proposed for improving the process of developing priors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗