SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictive state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 595 records · Page 33

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Predictions of Cell-to-Cell Propagation and Vent Gas Production in the Thermal Runaway of Lithium-Ion Battery Stacks

This work presents the thermal runaway propagation model LIM1TR (Lithium-ion Modeling with 1-D Thermal Runaway) as an efficient tool to predict different cell-to-cell thermal runaway propagation scenarios. Here, we explored the vent gas volume production and reaction duration highlighting the relationship between these parameters and thermal runaway propagation due to convection by the vented gases. Two metrics based on gas production rate and heating rate are utilized as good indicators of the start and end of thermal runaway. LIM1TR results are compared with and validated by experiments from the literature for single-cell and multicell array experiments of 5 Ah and 10 Ah cells. By accounting for intraparticle diffusion of reacting species in the electrodes, we were able to capture the general dynamics of thermal runaway propagation and estimate acceptable reaction durations compared with the experimental values. Simulation results further demonstrated that varying heating modes lead to distinct reaction durations, consistent with experimental observations. Vent gas volume predictions indicate the need to consider both full and partial oxidation of the electrolyte. The outcomes of this work are building blocks for further investigations of module-to-module propagation by vented gases through convective heat transfer.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) in Crystalline Rock Formations (DEMO-FTES) (CRADA Final Report)

The DEMO-FTES project sought to demonstrate the thermal efficiency of fracture thermal energy storage (FTES) through numerical simulations, laboratory and meso-scale field tests. A detailed dimensional and scaling analysis was performed to identify key parameters and how they can be most effectively scaled to the laboratory and decameter scale. Numerical models were developed and used for three purposes: 1. Before field experiments, numerical modelling can be used to estimate fracture properties based on previous data from the EGS Collab experiment and then predict thermal hydrological behaviors of the fracture system with hot water injection/withdrawal, therefore, help to design the experiments (e.g., to decide the duration of the cycles based on the flow rate the pump can provide, and the estimated fracture properties); 2. After the field experiment, to estimate the system properties during the experiment (as the size and shape of a fracture could change over time), and understand why system performance is different than what has been predicted, i.e., to help understand the meso-scale test; and, 3. To model the lab experiments and estimate fracture properties and storage efficiency. Ultimately, the experiment and numerical models could shed light on the processes and uncertainty happening during fracture activation and help understand the scaling between lab and field test, and finally, the design and optimization of potential fracture thermal energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effect of Heave Plate Hydrodynamic Force Parameterization on a Two-Body Wave Energy Converter

Heave plates are one approach to generating the reaction force necessary to harvest energy from ocean waves. In a Morison equation description of the hydrodynamic force, the components of drag and added mass depend primarily on the heave plate oscillation. These terms may be parameterized in three ways: (1) as a single coefficient invariant across sea state, most accurate at the reference sea state, (2) coefficients dependent on the oscillation amplitude, but invariant in phase, that are most accurate for relatively small amplitude motions, and (3) coefficients dependent on both oscillation amplitude and phase, which are accurate for all oscillation amplitudes. We validate a MATLAB model for a two-body point absorber wave energy converter against field data and a dynamical model constructed in ProteusDS. We then use the MATLAB model to evaluate the effect of these parameterizations on estimates of heave plate motion, tension between the float and heave plate, and wave energy converter electrical power output. We find that power predictions using amplitude-dependent coefficients differ by up to 30% from models using invariant coefficients for regular waves ranging in height from 0.5 to 1.9 m. Amplitude- and phase-dependent coefficients, however, yield less than a 5% change when compared with coefficients dependent on amplitude only. This suggests that amplitude-dependent coefficients can be important for accurate wave energy converter modeling, but the added complexity of phase-dependent coefficients yields little further benefit. We show similar, though less pronounced, trends in maximum tether tension, but note that heave plate motion has only a weak dependence on coefficient fidelity. Finally, we emphasize the importance of using experimentally derived added mass over that calculated from boundary element methods, which can lead to substantial under-prediction of power output and peak tether tension.

dynamical model↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall error propagation to rainfall-runoff model hydrographs

Rainfall is arguably the most important yet most variable input for rainfall-runoff hydrologic models. In this study, the authors search for the characteristics of radar-rainfall estimates that are most important for skillful streamflow predictions. They perform comprehensive hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall characteristics, including spatiotemporal resolution, radar range visibility, statistical characterization of rainfall variability, all vis-a-vis basin characteristics such as size and river network topology. Since the true rainfall fields are unknown, the authors exploit a paradigm of using two independently constructed radar-rainfall products i.e., Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor and IFC-ZR used operationally by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC). Using the distributed hydrologic model called the Hillslope-Link Model for the domain of the state of Iowa, they evaluate streamflow prediction at 140 USGS gauge stations that monitor rivers in Iowa. Through spatial and temporal rainfall aggregation experiments, the authors show that the impact of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall is significant typically for smaller basins while starts reducing significantly for basins larger than 1,000 km 2 . Other rainfall characteristics they explored do not reveal a strong signature in the relationship of rainfall differences between the two products and hydrograph errors. However, exploring the product similarities rather than differences reveals that the basin-wide rainfall volume has the most significant effect on streamflow prediction. The results from this study are generalizable for all rainfall observing systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A large-scale screening campaign of putative carbohydrate-active enzymes reveals a novel xylanase from anaerobic gut fungi

The genomes of anaerobic gut fungi (AGF) encode a diverse array of carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), yet exceedingly few of these enzymes have been experimentally validated or expressed in heterologous systems. Here, we developed a predictive bioinformatic pipeline to annotate novel putative CAZymes from anaerobic fungi and validate their activity through large-scale heterologous expression in Escherichia coli. A total of 173 fungal proteins from Piromyces finnis associated with biomass degradation were synthesized and expressed in E. coli, and 9.8% were soluble with expression levels exceeding 5% of the total proteome using high-throughput proteomic screening. Among these 17 heterologously expressed proteins, analysis with AlphaFold and FoldSeek predicted 13 multi-functional proteins containing catalytic domains fused with repetitive fungal dockerins, and half of the substrate predictions were experimentally validated. One promising enzyme, celsome_012, exhibited robust and specific activity against beechwood xylan at 37°C and pH 6.4, with titers that were also fivefold higher than those of other recombinant proteins screened here. Both Michaelis-Menten kinetics and the linearized Lineweaver-Burk equation yielded consistent values for K m , and its activation energy was estimated at 51.9 kJ/mol based on the Arrhenius model. This work supports the industrial translation of anaerobic fungal CAZymes due to their robust lignocellulolytic activity and provides a framework for prioritizing AGF proteins for efficient E. coli heterologous expression.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Precision DIS thrust predictions for HERA and EIC

We present predictions for the DIS 1-jettiness event shape $τ^b_1$, or DIS thrust, using the framework of Soft Collinear Effective Theory (SCET) for factorization, resummation of large logarithms, and rigorous treatment of nonperturbative power corrections, matched to fixed-order QCD away from the resummation region. Our predictions reach next-to-next-to-next-to-leading-logarithmic (N 3 LL) accuracy in resummed perturbation theory, matched to $\mathcal{O}(α^2_s)$ fixed-order QCD calculations obtained using the program NLOJet++. We include a rigorous treatment of hadronization corrections, which are universal across different event shapes and kinematic variables x and Q at leading power, and supplement them with a systematic scheme to remove $\mathcal{O}$(Λ QCD ) renormalon ambiguities in their definition. The framework of SCET allows us to connect smoothly the nonperturbative, resummation, and fixed-order regions, whose relative importance varies with x and Q, and to rigorously estimate theoretical uncertainties, across a broad range of x and Q covering existing experimental results from HERA as well as expected new measurements from the upcoming Electron- Ion-Collider (EIC). Our predictions will serve as an important benchmark for the EIC program, enabling the precise determination of the QCD strong coupling α s and the universal nonperturbative first moment parameter Ω 1 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermophysical properties of the Ghareb formation relevant for nuclear waste disposal

The Ghareb formation, a shallowly buried porous chalk in Israel, is currently a candidate for nuclear waste disposal. The potential repository is somewhat unique for its host rock and emplacement in shallow (500 m) engineered large diameter boreholes. Herein, the thermal properties of the Ghareb are determined to support design and performance assessment; the relevant properties measured are thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity, thermal diffusivity, and thermal expansion coefficient along with their relationship with varying temperature. For the temperature range of 40 to 275 °C, the thermal conductivity ranges from 0.30 to 1.10 W/m·K, the thermal diffusivity ranges from 0.20 to 0.72 mm 2 /s, and volumetric heat capacity ranges from 0.86 to 2.00 MJ/m 3 ·K. Thermal strain measurements were used to estimate the linear thermal expansion coefficient to be 6·10 –4 –9·10 –2 °C -1 from 40 to 300 °C. These measured properties were used in a thermomechanical model to estimate near-field stresses an hour and 10 years after waste emplacement; the borehole was found to be stable. Thermal loading after 10 years was predicted to elevate local pore pressures by 1–1.5 MPa. The laboratory measurements coupled with analyses are the first attempts at performance assessment characterization for this first of its kind potential repository setting with this chosen host rock.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cloud condensation nuclei activity of internally mixed particle populations at a remote marine free troposphere site in the North Atlantic Ocean

Here, this study reports results from research conducted at the Observatory of Mount Pico (OMP), 2225 m above mean sea level on Pico Island in the Azores archipelago in June and July 2017. We investigated the chemical composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities of long-range transported free tropospheric (FT) particles. FLEXible PARTicle Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) simulations reveal that most air masses that arrived at the OMP during the sampling period originated in North America and were highly aged (average plume age > 10 days). We probed size-resolved chemical composition, mixing state, and hygroscopicity parameter ($\mathcal{κ}$) of individual particles using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (CCSEM-EDX). Based on the estimated individual particle mass from elemental composition, we calculated the mixing state index, $χ$. During our study, FT particle populations were internally mixed ($χ$ of samples are between 53% and 87%), owing to the long atmospheric aging time. We used data from a miniature Cloud Condensation Nucleus Counter (miniCCNC) to derive the hygroscopicity parameter, $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC . Combining $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC and FLEXPART, we found that air masses recirculated above the North Atlantic Ocean with lower mean altitude had higher $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC due to the higher contribution of sea salt particles. We used CCSEM-EDX and phase state measurements to predict single-particle $\mathcal{κ}$ ($\mathcal{κ}$ CCSEM-EDX ) values, which overlap with the lower range of $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC measured below 0.15 % SS. Therefore, CCSEM-EDX measurements can be useful in predicting the lower bound of $\mathcal{κ}$, which can be used in climate models to predict CCN activities, especially in remote locations where online CCN measurements are unavailable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Designing multicomponent hydrides with potential high T c superconductivity

While hydrogen-rich materials have been demonstrated to exhibit high T c superconductivity at high pressures, there is an ongoing search for ternary, quaternary, and more chemically complex hydrides that achieve such high critical temperatures at much lower pressures. First-principles searches are impeded by the computational complexity of solving the Eliashberg equations for large, complex crystal structures. Here, we adopt a simplified approach using electronic indicators previously established to be correlated with superconductivity in hydrides. This is used to study complex hydride structures, which are predicted to exhibit promisingly high critical temperatures for superconductivity. In particular, we propose three classes of hydrides inspired by the Fm$\overline{3}$ m RH 3 structures that exhibit strong hydrogen network connectivity, as defined through the electron localization function. The first class [RH 11 X 3 Y] is based on a Pm$\overline{3}$m structure showing moderately high T c , where the T c estimate from electronic properties is compared with direct Eliashberg calculations and found to be surprisingly accurate. The second class of structures [(RH 11 ) 2 X 6 YZ] improves on this with promisingly high density of states with dominant hydrogen character at the Fermi energy, typically enhancing T c . The third class [(R 1 H 11 )(R 2 H 11 )X 6 YZ] improves the strong hydrogen network connectivity by introducing anisotropy in the hydrogen network through a specific doping pattern. These design principles and associated model structures provide flexibility to optimize both T c and the structural stability of complex hydrides.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Studies of laser stimulated photodetachment from nanoparticles for particle charge measurements

Determining nanoparticle charge is more challenging than that for microparticles due to change in the particle size during the synthesis substantial plasma property variations, and difficulties in visualizing individual particles, rendering conventional microparticle charge diagnostics ineffective in dusty plasma. In this work, we utilized laser-stimulated photodetachment (LSPD) to deduce the mean charge of nanoparticles. Nanoparticles were grown in an Ar/C 2 H 2 mixture using a capacitively coupled RF discharge and the LSPD induced changes in the electron current monitored by a cylindrical Langmuir probe. LSPD signals were obtained and analyzed across different dust growth phases. The prolonged decay of electron current pulses was attributed to the presence of residual negative ions, caused by the effective electrostatic trapping of these ions and the potential post—LSPD re-formation of new ones. The particle charge was estimated by combining the laser-stimulated photodetachment signal from the probe with the dust density obtained from laser-light extinction using the measured nanoparticle size distribution. For a nanoparticles size range of approximately 100–250 nm and mean diameter of $d$ p ∼154.37 nm, the effective mean charge was estimated to be $\langle$$Q$$\rangle$ d $≈$ 37 elementary charge units. The measured charge values are lower than those predicted by orbital motion limited theory, which may be attributed to significant electron depletion in the nanodusty plasma. LSPD results in Ar/C 2 H 2 nano-dusty plasma confirm the applicability of this method for estimating individual nanoparticle charges. However, it has also been demonstrated that electron detachment from residual background negative ions can influence the detachment current decay and must be carefully considered.

dust particle charge↗

DOE OSTI2023

Structure, stability, and superconductivity of N-doped lutetium hydrides at kbar pressures

Here, the structure of the material responsible for the room temperature and near ambient pressure superconductivity reported in an N-doped lutetium hydride has not been conclusively determined. Herein, density functional theory calculations are performed in an attempt to uncover what it might be. Guided by a range of strategies including crystal structure prediction and modifications of existing structure types, we present an array of Lu-N-H phases that are dynamically stable at experimentally relevant pressures. Although none of the structures found are thermodynamically stable, and none are expected to remain superconducting above ~17 K at 10 kbar, a number of metallic compounds with fcc Lu lattices – as suggested by the experimental X-ray diffraction measurements of the majority phase – are identified. The system whose calculated equation of states matches best with that measured for the majority phase is fluorite-type LuH 2 , whose 10 kbar superconducting critical temperature was estimated to be 0.1 K using the Allen-Dynes modified McMillan equation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Bayesian Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in scientific machine learning, especially when surrogate models are used to approximate complex systems. Although multilayer perceptions (MLPs) are commonly employed as surrogates, they often suffer from overfitting due to their large number of parameters. Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) offer an alternative solution with fewer parameters. However, gradient-based inference methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), may result in computational inefficiency when applied to KANs, especially for large-scale datasets, due to the high cost of back-propagation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach, combining the dropout Tikhonov ensemble Kalman inversion (DTEKI) with Chebyshev KANs. This gradient-free method effectively mitigates overfitting and enhances numerical stability. In addition, we incorporate the active subspace method to reduce the parameter-space dimensionality, allowing us to improve the accuracy of predictions and obtain more reliable uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in various test cases, including scenarios with large datasets and high noise levels. Our results show that the new method achieves comparable or better accuracy, much higher efficiency as well as stability compared to HMC, in addition to scalability. Moreover, by leveraging the low-dimensional parameter subspace, our method preserves prediction accuracy while substantially reducing further the computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Diffusion-Limited Kinetics in Reactive Systems

A proper representation of chemical kinetics is vital to understanding, modeling, and optimizing many important chemical processes. In liquid and surface phases, where diffusion is slow, the rate at which the reactants diffuse together limits the overall rate of many elementary reactions. Commonly, the textbook Smoluchowski theory is utilized to estimate effective rate coefficients in the liquid phase. On surfaces, modelers commonly resort to much more complex and expensive Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. Here, in this study, we extend the Smoluchowski model to allow the diffusing species to undergo chemical reactions and derive analytical formulas for the diffusion-limited rate coefficients for 3D, 2D, and 2D/3D interface cases. With these equations, we are able to demonstrate that when species react faster than they diffuse they can react orders of magnitude faster than predicted by Smoluchowski theory, through what we term “the reactive transport effect”. We validate the derived steady-state equations against particle Monte Carlo (PMC) simulations, KMC simulations, and non-steady-state solutions. Furthermore, using PMC and KMC simulations, we propose corrections that agree with all limits and the computed data for the 2D and 2D/3D interface steady-state equations, accounting for unique limitations in the associated derived equations. Additionally, we derive equations to handle couplings between diffusion-limited rate coefficients in reaction networks. We believe these equations should make it possible to run much more accurate mean-field simulations of liquids, surfaces, and liquid–surface interfaces accounting for diffusion limitations and the reactive transport effect.

Johnson, Matthew Sean↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discovering nuclear models from symbolic machine learning

Numerous phenomenological nuclear models have been proposed to describe specific observables within different regions of the nuclear chart. However, developing a unified model that describes the complex behavior of all nuclei remains an open challenge. Here, we explore whether symbolic Machine Learning (ML) can rediscover traditional nuclear physics models or identify alternatives with improved simplicity, fidelity, and predictive power. To address this challenge, we developed a Multi-objective Iterated Symbolic Regression approach that handles symbolic regressions over multiple target observables, accounts for experimental uncertainties and is robust against high-dimensional problems. As a proof of principle, we applied this method to describe the nuclear binding energies and charge radii of light and medium mass nuclei. Our approach identified simple analytical relationships based on the number of protons and neutrons, providing interpretable models with precision comparable to state-of-the-art nuclear models. Additionally, we integrated this ML-discovered model with an existing complementary model to estimate the limits of nuclear stability. These results highlight the potential of symbolic ML to develop accurate nuclear models and guide our description of complex many-body problems.

Nuclear structure↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward improved quantum simulations and sensing with trapped two-dimensional ion crystals via parametric amplification

Improving coherence is a fundamental challenge in quantum simulation and sensing experiments with trapped ions. Here we discuss, experimentally demonstrate, and estimate the potential impacts of two different protocols that enhance, through motional parametric excitation, the coherent spin-motion coupling of ions obtained with a spin-dependent force. The experiments are performed on two-dimensional crystal arrays of approximately 100 9 ⁢Be + ions confined in a Penning trap. By modulating the trapping potential at close to twice the center-of-mass mode frequency, we squeeze the motional mode and enhance the spin-motion coupling while maintaining spin coherence. With a stroboscopic protocol, we measure 5.4 ± 0.9 dB of motional squeezing below the ground-state motion, from which theory predicts a 10-dB enhancement in the sensitivity for measuring small displacements using a recently demonstrated protocol [K. A. Gilmore et al., Science 373, 673 (2021)]. With a continuous squeezing protocol, we measure and accurately calibrate the parametric coupling strength. Theory suggests this protocol can be used to improve quantum spin squeezing, limited in our system by off-resonant light scatter. Finally, we illustrate numerically the trade-offs between strong parametric amplification and motional dephasing in the form of center-of-mass frequency fluctuations for improving quantum spin squeezing in our setup.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗