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At least 595 records · Page 33

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is carrying the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with 1" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SAO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." Our presentation will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO/HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗

Parameter Estimation with Entangled Photons Produced by Parametric Down-Conversion

We explore the advantages offered by twin light beams produced in parametric down-conversion for precision measurement. The symmetry of these bipartite quantum states, even under losses, suggests that monitoring correlations between the divergent beams permits a high-precision inference of any symmetry-breaking effect, e.g., fiber birefringence. We show that the quantity of entanglement is not the key feature for such an instrument. In a lossless setting, scaling of precision at the ultimate "Heisenberg" limit is possible with photon counting alone. Even as photon losses approach 100% the precision is shot-noise limited, and we identify the crossover point between quantum and classical precision as a function of detected flux. The predicted hypersensitivity is demonstrated with a Bayesian simulation.

Cable, Hugo↗

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of ~1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗

Statistical Approach on Utilizing Ground-based Experiments to Model Break-up Events

Two laboratory-based impact tests have been conducted to develop and extend the capability of NASA satellite breakup models. The first experiment, the Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), was conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA in 1992. It employed a fully functional U.S. Navy Transit spacecraft, fabricated from materials commonly used in the 1960s. SOCIT fragmentation data formed the basis of the current NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM). A second experiment, DebriSat, was conducted in 2014 by the DebriSat consortium: the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office; the United States Space Force Space Systems Command, formerly the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex, and the University of Florida. This impact test was performed on a high-fidelity mock-up satellite assembled from modern components. Data from both experiments are expected to contribute to the next-generation models for on-orbit breakup analyses, long-term environment predictions, and debris risk assessment. This paper uses the direct statistical sampling of the SOCIT and DebriSat data ensembles to model an on-orbit breakup event, rather than the analytic expressions estimated from the samples as with as with the NASA SSBM and its predecessor. This direct method involves drawing fragments (i.e., sampling with replacement) from each fragmentation data-subset containing mass, shape category, material density, characteristic length, mass, and cross-sectional area. As part of the sampling process, the properties of sampled fragment data (e.g., area-to-mass ratios) are numerically checked to ensure they do not contain unrealistic quantities. The process to simulate a breakup cloud composed of fragments from SOCIT and DebriSat datasets is discussed. The methodology for ensuring that conservation of overall mass of the sampled fragment cloud under this sampling approach is highlighted. Finally, the results are compared with simulated clouds generated from SSBM for specific historical breakup events.

Andrew Vavrin↗

Statistical Approach on Utilizing Ground-Based Experiments to Model Break-Up Events

Two laboratory-based impact tests have been conducted to develop and extend the capability of NASA satellite breakup models. The first experiment, the Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), was conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA in 1992. It employed a fully functional U.S. Navy Transit spacecraft, fabricated from materials commonly used in the 1960s. SOCIT fragmentation data formed the basis of the current NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM). A second experiment, DebriSat, was conducted in 2014 by the DebriSat consortium: the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the United States Space Force Space Systems Command, formerly the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex, and the University of Florida. This impact test was performed on a high-fidelity mock-up satellite assembled from modern components. Data from both experiments are expected to contribute to the next-generation models for on-orbit breakup analyses, long-term environment predictions, and debris risk assessment. This paper uses the direct statistical sampling of the SOCIT and DebriSat data ensembles to model an on-orbit breakup event, rather than the analytic expressions estimated from the samples in the SSBM and its predecessor. This direct method involves drawing fragments (i.e., sampling with replacement) from each fragmentation data-subset containing mass, shape category, material density, characteristic length, mass, and cross-sectional area. As part of the sampling process, the properties of sampled fragment data (e.g., area-to-mass ratios) are numerically checked to ensure they do not contain unrealistic quantities. The process to simulate a breakup cloud composed of fragments from SOCIT and DebriSat datasets is discussed. The methodology for ensuring that conservation of overall mass of the sampled fragment cloud under this sampling approach is highlighted. Finally, the results are compared with simulated clouds generated from SSBM for specific historical breakup events.

Andrew Vavrin↗

Experimental Demonstration and System Analysis for Plasmonic Force Propulsion

This project developed a higher-fidelity model of a recently envisioned small spacecraft propulsion system for precision pointing and proximity control. Plasmonic force propulsion harnesses solar light focused onto plasmon reactive subwavelength nanostructures to accelerate and expel nanoparticle propellant via strong optical forces. The goal of the project was to show that plasmonic space propulsion can provide the level of proximity and attitude control envisioned for future NASA nano/picosatellite missions, a level that is better than state-of-the-art approaches. We achieved this goal by showing that plasmonic force thrusters are feasible for a range of advanced mission concepts requiring swarm formations in a deep space environment. We performed three case studies that evaluated the performance of the plasmonic force propulsion thruster in a deep space, microsatellite swarm formation. These case studies assumed the propulsion system could generate thrust at the level predicted from our Phase 1 study (1.6 μN). Through these cases we were able to analyze the concept within a mission specific context through detailed orbital dynamics calculations. Results indicate that, with the Phase 1 estimated thrust level, the approach is promising for providing attitude control to swarm formation spacecraft. Further, we achieved goals related to technology development. Specifically, we experimentally demonstrated nanoparticle acceleration due to plasmonic forces with asymmetric nanostructures excited by focused laser light. Additionally, we investigated the thrust sensitivity and nanoparticle propellant injection dependencies upon thermal effects. As a result of our study, plasmonic force propulsion is at an early TRL 3. Active research and design has been conducted analytically and in the laboratory. Furthermore, practical applications such as the three case studies have been identified for the scientific basic principles that were observed. Future efforts related to fundamental understanding of these techniques should focus on 1) developing a standalone array of asymmetric nanostructures that can effectively interact with a stream or reservoir of particles or 2) experimentally evaluate a dielectrophoretic injector for nanoparticle propellant. The main limitation discovered about plasmonic propulsion regards performance estimates significantly below the Phase 1 estimations. Specifically, original assumptions in the Phase 1 project (notably, a linear array of asymmetric nanostructures) is not a viable approach to achieving significant acceleration, high exhaust velocity, of nanoparticles. More specifically, we assumed in Phase 1 that nanoparticles would be accelerated in series by a long linear array of asymmetric nanostructures. That is, the acceleration of the nanoparticle would build and increase with the kick received by each subsequent nanostructure. This is fundamentally flawed. The potential profile of a single nanostructure is such that it prohibits this phenomenon. The potential energy associated with the plasmon-generated dielectrophoretic force is a potential well, which is good for trapping nanoparticles, but cannot provide significant acceleration of particles to expel them out and away from the nanostructure. Further, a nanoparticle expelled from the first nanostructure would need to overcome the potential barrier for entry into the next nanostructure accelerating stage. Fundamentally, this effect means that a linear array of nanostructures is not a viable accelerating structure. Correspondingly then, acceleration can, or should, only be provided by one nanostructure, and the net acceleration and thrust force of a single nanostructure is small (~cm/s exhaust velocities, sub-nN level thrust vs. the 100’s m/s, μN originally envisioned). While our experiments demonstrated acceleration and manipulation of a nanoparticle using laser light in aqueous environment, the achievable energy and momentum addition to the nanoparticle from a single nanostructure stage is too low for useful propulsion. In terms of thrust prediction, the estimated thrust of 1.6 μN in Phase 1 is reduced to a few nN of thrust with this new insight and understanding of the concept. This thrust level is too small to achieve attitude control of swarms as originally envisioned.

Plasmonic Force↗

Global Food Insecurity and Famine From Reduced Crop, Marine Fishery and Livestock Production Due to Climate Disruption From Nuclear War Soot Injection

Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth’s climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia—underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.

Atmospheric soot↗

ResORR: A Globally Scalable and Satellite Data-Driven Algorithm for River Flow Regulation Due to Reservoir Operations

We propose a globally scalable algorithm, ResORR (Reservoir Operations driven River Regulation), to predict regulated river flow and tested it over the heavily regulated basin of the Cumberland River in the US. ResORR was found able to model regulated river flow due to upstream reservoir operations of the Cumberland River. Over a mountainous basin dominated by high rainfall, ResORR was effective in capturing extreme flooding modified by upstream hydropower dam operations. On average, ResORR improved regulated river flow simulation by more than 50% across all performance metrics when compared to a hydrologic model without a regulation module. ResORR is a timely software algorithm for understanding human regulation of surface water as satellite-estimated reservoir state is expected to improve globally with the recently launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission.

River Regulation↗

Experimental constraints on CO2 and H2O in the Martian mantle and primary magmas

We present new data on the stability of hornblende in a Martian mantle composition, on CO2 solubility in iron-rich basaltic magmas, and on the solubility of H2O in an alkalic basaltic magma. These new data are combined with a summary of data from the literature to present a summary of the current state of our estimates of solubilities of H2O and CO2 in probable Martian magmas and the stability of hornblende in a slightly hydrous mantle. The new results suggest that hornblende stability is not sensitive to the Mg/(Mg+Fe) ratio (mg#) of the mantle, that is the results for terrestrial mantle compositions are similar to the more iron-rich Martian composition. Likewise, CO2 solubility in iron-rich tholeiitic basaltic magmas is similar to iron-poor terrestrial compositions. The solubility of H2O has been measured in an alkalic basaltic (basanite) composition for the first time, and it is significantly lower than predicted for models of water solubility in magmas. The lack of mg# dependence observed in hornblende stability and on CO2 solubility that in many cases terrestrial results can be applied to Martian compositions. This conclusion does not apply to other phenomena such as primary magma compositions and major mantle mineral mineralogy.

Holloway, John R.↗

Theoretical predictions of latitude dependencies in the solar wind

Results are presented which were obtained with the Winge-Coleman model for theoretical predictions of latitudinal dependencies in the solar wind. A first-order expansion is described which allows analysis of first-order latitudinal variations in the coronal boundary conditions and results in a second-order partial differential equation for the perturbation stream function. Latitudinal dependencies are analytically separated out in the form of Legendre polynomials and their derivative, and are reduced to the solution of radial differential equations. This analysis is shown to supply an estimate of how large the coronal variation in latitude must be to produce an 11 km/sec/deg gradient in the radial velocity of the solar wind, assuming steady-state processes.

Winge, C. R., Jr.↗

An inventory of undiscovered Canadian mineral resources

Unit regional value (URV) and unit regional weight are area standardized measures of the expected value and quantity, respectively, of the mineral resources of a region. Estimation and manipulation of the URV statistic is the basis of an approach to mineral resource evaluation. Estimates of the kind and value of exploitable mineral resources yet to be discovered in the provinces of Canada are used as an illustration of the procedure. The URV statistic is set within a previously developed model wherein geology, as measured by point counting geologic maps, is related to the historical record of mineral resource production of well-developed regions of the world, such as the 50 states of the U.S.A.; these may be considered the training set. The Canadian provinces are related to this training set using geological information obtained in the same way from geologic maps of the provinces. The desired predictions of yet to be discovered mineral resources in the Canadian provinces arise as a consequence. The implicit assumption is that regions of similar geology, if equally well developed, will produce similar weights and values of mineral resources.

Labovitz, M. L.↗

An economical semi-analytical orbit theory for micro-computer applications

An economical algorithm is presented for predicting the position of a satellite perturbed by drag and zonal harmonics J sub 2 through J sub 4. Simplicity being of the essence, drag is modeled as a secular decay rate in the semi-axis (retarded motion); with the zonal perturbations modeled from a modified version of the Brouwers formulas. The algorithm is developed as: an alternative on-board orbit predictor; a back up propagator requiring low energy consumption; or a ground based propagator for microcomputer applications (e.g., at the foot of an antenna). An O(J sub 2) secular retarded state partial matrix (matrizant) is also given to employ with state estimation. The theory was implemented in BASIC on an inexpensive microcomputer, the program occupying under 8K bytes of memory. Simulated trajectory data and real tracking data are employed to illustrate the theory's ability to accurately accommodate oblateness and drag effects.

Gordon, R. A.↗

Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project. III. Optical Continuum Emission and Broadband Time Delays in NGC 5548

We present ground-based optical photometric monitoring data for NGC 5548, part of an extended multiwavelength reverberation mapping campaign. The light curves have nearly daily cadence from 2014 January to July in ninefilters (BVRI and ugriz). Combined with ultraviolet data from the Hubble Space Telescope and Swift, we confirm significant time delays between the continuum bands as a function of wavelength, extending the wavelength coverage from 1158 Angstrom to the z band (approximately 9160 angstrom). We find that the lags at wavelengths longer than the V band are equal to or greater than the lags of high-ionization-state emission lines (such as He pi lambdal1640 and lambda 4686), suggesting that the continuum-emitting source is of a physical size comparable to the inner broad-line region (BLR). The trend of lag with wavelength is broadly consistent with the prediction for continuum reprocessing by an accretion disk with (tau varies as lambda(exp 4/3)). However, the lags also imply a disk radius that is 3 times larger than the prediction from standardthin-disk theory, assuming that the bolometric luminosity is 10 percent of the Eddington luminosity (L 0.1L(sub Edd)).Using optical spectra from the Large Binocular Telescope, we estimate the bias of the interband continuum lagsdue to BLR emission observed in the filters. We find that the bias for filters with high levels of BLR contamination(20 percent) can be important for the shortest continuum lags and likely has a significant impact on the u and U bandsowing to Balmer continuum emission.

galaxies: active – galaxies: individual (NGC 554↗

In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters

Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Banerjee, Portia↗

State estimation and absolute image registration for geosynchronous satellites

Spacecraft state estimation and the absolute registration of Earth images acquired by cameras onboard geosynchronous satellites are described. The basic data type of the procedure consists of line and element numbers of image points called landmarks whose geodetic coordinates, relative to United States Geodetic Survey topographic maps, are known. A conventional least squares process is used to estimate navigational parameters and camera pointing biases from observed minus computed landmark line and element numbers. These estimated parameters along with orbit and attitude dynamic models are used to register images, using an automated grey level correlation technique, inside the span represented by the landmark data. In addition, the dynamic models can be employed to register images outside of the data span in a near real time mode. An important application of this mode is in support of meteorological studies where rapid data reduction is required for the rapid tracking and predicting of dynamic phenomena.

Nankervis, R.↗

Ab Initio Studies of Fluorine and Chlorine Oxide and Nitrogen Oxide Species of Interest in Stratospheric Chemistry

The quality of fundamental vibrational frequencies determined using the CCSD(T) method (singles and doubles coupled-cluster theory plus a perturbational estimate of the effects of connected triple excitations) is shown to be very good, usually predicting band centers to within plus or minus 8 per centimeter. This approach is applied to several molecules of interest in atmospheric chemistry, such as HNO, cis-FONO, cis-ClONO, and ClOOH. The HNO molecule displays a large and unusual anharmonicity in the H-N stretch. For the calculation of ultraviolet (UV) spectra, the linear response CCSD (LRCCSD) approach (which is equivalent to EOM-CCSD) has been shown to yield vertical excitation energies that are accurate to approximately equal to 0.1 eV for singly excited electronic states. This method together with more approximate methods is used to examine the UV spectra of several molecules important in stratospheric chemistry, including HOCl, Cl2O, ClONO2, HONO2, ClOOCl, ClOOH, and HOOH.

Lee, Timothy J.↗

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Song, Lixia↗

The Opportunity in Commercial Approaches for Future NASA Deep Space Exploration Elements

In 2011, NASA released a report assessing the market for commercial crew and cargo services to low Earth orbit (LEO). The report stated that NASA had spent a few hundred million dollars in the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program on the portion related to the development of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle. Yet a NASA cost model predicted the cost would have been significantly more with a non-commercial cost-plus contracting approach. By 2016 a NASA request for information stated it must "maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the Exploration Systems development programs", as "critical to free resources for reinvestment...such as other required deep space exploration capabilities." This work joins the previous two events, showing the potential for commercial, public private partnerships, modeled on programs like COTS, to reduce the cost to NASA significantly for "...other required deep space exploration capabilities." These other capabilities include landers, stages and more. We mature the concept of "costed baseball cards", adding cost estimates to NASA's space systems "baseball cards." We show some potential costs, including analysis, the basis of estimates, data sources and caveats to address a critical question - based on initial assessment, are significant agency resources justified for more detailed analysis and due diligence to understand and invest in public private partnerships for human deep space exploration systems? The cost analysis spans commercial to cost-plus contracting approaches, for smaller elements vs. larger, with some variation for lunar or Mars. By extension, we delve briefly into the potentially much broader significance of the individual cost estimates if taken together as a NASA investment portfolio where public private partnership are stitched together for deep space exploration. How might multiple improvements in individual systems add up to NASA human deep space exploration achievements, realistically, affordably, sustainably, in a relevant timeframe?

cost modeling estimation↗