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DOE OSTI2020

How Well Do We Know the Neutron-Matter Equation of State at the Densities Inside Neutron Stars? A Bayesian Approach with Correlated Uncertainties

Here, we introduce a new framework for quantifying correlated uncertainties of the infinite-matter equation of state derived from chiral effective field theory (𝜒⁢EFT ). Bayesian machine learning via Gaussian processes with physics-based hyperparameters allows us to efficiently quantify and propagate theoretical uncertainties of the equation of state, such as 𝜒⁢EFT truncation errors, to derived quantities. We apply this framework to state-of-the-art many-body perturbation theory calculations with nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions up to fourth order in the 𝜒⁢EFT expansion. This produces the first statistically robust uncertainty estimates for key quantities of neutron stars. We give results up to twice nuclear saturation density for the energy per particle, pressure, and speed of sound of neutron matter, as well as for the nuclear symmetry energy and its derivative. At nuclear saturation density, the predicted symmetry energy and its slope are consistent with experimental constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗

DOE OSTI2021

National and regional waste stream in the United States: conformance and disparity

Accurate estimation of municipal solid waste (MSW) composition is critical for efficient waste management. In the United States, site-specific and material flow approaches determine the MSW composition at regional and national levels. The material flow-based national estimates are determined by the US EPA; the US EPA’s estimates are known to differ substantially from the aggregated tonnage of MSW managed by waste handling facilities in the United States. However, the material class-specific discrepancies of the US EPA’s material flow approach resulting in these differences are unknown. To find the basis of these discrepancies, we analyze the discarded MSW stream of 27 US states, which roughly accounts for 73 percent of the US population. Our analysis indicates that the material flow-based national estimates are accurate for the food, plastic, and glass material classes. In contrast, we find that the US EPA’s material flow-based predictions underestimate paper waste disposal by at least 15 million tons annually. These differences likely stem from incorrect assumptions of residence time. These results highlight the material class-specific strengths and drawbacks of the US EPA’s material flow-based MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Light-induced anomalous Hall conductivity in the massive three-dimensional Dirac semimetal Co 3 ⁢Sn 2 ⁢S 2

Weyl semimetals can emerge from Dirac semimetals when the time-reversal or spatial-inversion symmetries are broken. Recently, it has been proposed based on Floquet theory that Dirac semimetals can be converted into Weyl semimetals even by shining circularly polarized light (CPL). Here we have investigated the possibility of such a Dirac-Weyl conversion by measuring the CPL-induced anomalous Hall conductivity (AHC) in a massive 3D Dirac semimetal Co 3 ⁢Sn 2 ⁢S 2 in the paramagnetic phase using ultrafast midinfrared pump-terahertz Faraday rotation probe spectroscopy. We find that the field-strength and driving frequency dependence of the observed AHC is well accounted for by CPL-induced nonzero Berry curvature associated with the splitting of the Dirac bands as predicted by the Floquet theory. As a result, the estimated splitting of the Dirac bands reaches about 60% of the mass gap and the calculated CPL-induced AHC quantitatively reproduces the experimental observation, demonstrating a promising route toward the realization of Floquet-Weyl states from massive Dirac semimetals.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1991

Effective gain measurements in chromium-doped forsterite

Effective gain cross section in tetravalent chromium-doped forsterite laser crystal was measured over the 1180-1330 nm spectral range. The experiment was performed using two collinear laser beams in a pump-and-probe arrangement. The peak-gain cross section from this measurement is estimated to be 1.9 x 10 to the -19th sq cm at 1215 nm, which is comparable to the value of about 2 x 10 to the -19th sq cm predicted by fluorescence linewidth and lifetime measurements. These results indicate that excited-state absorption is not a major loss mechanism in tetravalent chromium-doped forsterite.

Petricevic, V.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Applications of the GPCP Satellite-Gauge Merged Precipitation Data Set to the Goals of PACS and GCIP

Recently, under the direction of GEWEX/GCIP there has been an attempt to link North American monsoon rainfall to precipitation in the Great Plains for the purposes of predictability on the seasonal time scale. Rain gauge analyses have been used to show continental-scale relationships. However, the interannual variability of warm season precipitation over the United States is linked to the east Pacific climate system. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite estimates of precipitation over oceans add a vital piece of information towards the goals of PACS and GCIP. This preliminary study will begin by focusing on the East Pacific sector. El-Nino-Southern Ossilation (ENSO) modulates the position and strength of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which affects the precipitation source for the Mexican monsoon. For example, the five driest summers in coastal Mexico occurred during the five strongest El Ninos (as determined by positive values of Nino 3.4) since 1979. Previous work has investigated lag-lead relationships between the North American monsoon and continental rainfall. GPCP has the potential to extend these relationships to a global scale. Finally data sets with a finer time and space scale, including Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) products, will be used to examine wave dynamics. Kelvin waves, in particular, may be trigger mechanisms for the onset of the North American monsoon.

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2010

Utilization of Hydrologic Remote Sensing Data in Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation: Current Status and Challenges

Recent advances in remote sensing technologies have enabled the monitoring and measurement of the Earth's land surface at an unprecedented scale and frequency. The myriad of these land surface observations must be integrated with the state-of-the-art land surface model forecasts using data assimilation to generate spatially and temporally coherent estimates of environmental conditions. These analyses are of critical importance to real-world applications such as agricultural production, water resources management and flood, drought, weather and climate prediction. This need motivated the development of NASA Land Information System (LIS), which is an expert system encapsulating a suite of modeling, computational and data assimilation tools required to address challenging hydrological problems. LIS integrates the use of several community land surface models, use of ground and satellite based observations, data assimilation and uncertainty estimation techniques and high performance computing and data management tools to enable the assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales of interest. This presentation will focus on describing the results, challenges and lessons learned from the use of remote sensing data for improving land surface modeling, within LIS. More specifically, studies related to the improved estimation of soil moisture, snow and land surface temperature conditions through data assimilation will be discussed. The presentation will also address the characterization of uncertainty in the modeling process through Bayesian remote sensing and computational methods.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Remaining Flying Time Prediction Implementing Battery Prognostics Framework for Electric UAV's

In this paper the problem of building trust in the online safety prediction of an fixed wing small electric unmanned aerial vehicles (e-UAV) for remaining flying time is addressed. A series of flight tests are described to verify the performance of the remaining flying time prediction algorithm. The estimate of remaining flying time is used to activate an alarm when the predicted remaining time falls below a threshold of two minutes. This updates the pilot to transition to the landing sequence of the flight profile. A second alarm is activated when the battery state of charge (SOC) falls below a specified safety limit threshold. This SOC threshold is the point at which the battery energy reserve would no longer safely support enough aborted landing attempts. During the test flights, the motor system is operated with the same predefined timed airspeed profile for each test. To test the robustness of the developed prediction algorithm, partial tests were performed with and remaining were performed without a simulated power train fault. To simulate a partial power train fault in the e-UAV the pilot engages a resistor bank at a specified time during the test flight. The flying time prediction system is agnostic of the pilot's activation of the fault and must adapt to the vehicle's state. The time at which the limit threshold on battery SOC is reached, it is then used to measure the accuracy of the remaining flying time predictions. This is demonstrated through comparing results from two battery models being developed. Accuracy requirements for the alarms are considered and the results discussed.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Application of System Identification to Parachute Modeling

Parachute models are used in numerous flight simulation tools to predict a wide range of parachute flight performance characteristics (e.g., parachute inflation loads, parachute stability and dynamics, vehicle touchdown conditions, and, ultimately, the safety and survivability of the system using the parachute). The current state of the art in developing parachute models is to initially estimate the parachute characteristics based on the parachute geometry and historical data and then add increased model fidelity based on data from wind tunnel and/or flight tests. This approach, however, can be deficient in identifying which parachute states (e.g., angle of attack, sideslip, angular rates, flyout angles, descent rate, dynamic pressure, proximity to other parachutes) are responsible for the parachute motion, and the relationship between those states and the forces on the parachute.

Murri, Daniel G.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Survey of Methods to Predict Controller Workload for Real-Time Monitoring of Airspace Safety

The Real Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) approach allows for assessment and prediction of the safety margin in the National Airspace System (NAS) to help preempt incidents and accidents, rather than having to reactively mitigate them. In RTSM, the NAS is modeled using state variables, and safety metrics are defined in terms of these state variables. The safety metrics have been classified as weather-related, airspace-related, and human-related. Many of the formulated human-related safety metrics need an estimate of the controller workload for their computation. However, this computation is not trivial. Hence, in this report, we perform a literature survey to identify the different factors that enable the computation of controller workload and categorize these factors. Next, we describe studies undertaken to determine a minimal set of factors that pro- vide a correct assessment of controller workload. Lastly, we survey approaches for evaluating how well the selected factors correlate with the controllers' subjective assessment of their workload. Based on this survey, we present factors beneficial to computing and predicting controller workload in real time, and discuss the status of data sources necessary for these computations.

National Airspace System↗

DOE OSTI2026

Autonomous monitoring of algal biomass: Success stories and lessons learned from long-term field deployment

Autonomous, high-frequency monitoring of outdoor algal ponds is needed to quantify biomass productivity and detect culture decline in environments prone to contamination, grazers, and variable operating conditions. We report successes and lessons learned in translating a laboratory spectroradiometric monitoring approach to a multi-year autonomous field deployment at the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI). The system measures spectrally resolved pond reflectance by ratioing upwelling radiance from each raceway to simultaneous downwelling sky irradiance using fiber-coupled spectrometers. A physics-based reflectance model (ASHARP) is fit to each spectrum pair to estimate optical parameters, including a biomass-proxy coefficient (C a ) which enables near-real-time tracking of biomass accumulation and culture state at 2–5 min intervals. From May 2022 through September 2025 the platform operated continuously while scaling from two to six raceway ponds. Several strains of algae were monitored successfully, including the high productivity Tetraselmis striata and Picochlorum celeri. Transitioning data acquisition from a Windows laptop to a Raspberry Pi improved uptime from 57% (2022) to ~89% (2024–2025) and enabled routine real-time analysis. Further, we converted relative biomass estimates to absolute ash-free dry weight (AFDW) using experimentally-derived calibrations, providing field-relevant biomass predictions with conservative confidence bounds. These results demonstrate the feasibility of long-term, autonomous optical monitoring for well-mixed open-raceway algal cultivation and provide practical guidance for reliable field operation and scaling.

Katinas, Christopher Michael [Sandia National Labo↗

NASA NTRS1993

Predicting LANDSAT MSS endmember signatures from corresponding higher resolution TM fraction images

The approach to predicting Landsat Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) endmember signatures from fraction images derived from high resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data is presented. The purpose, conducted in the Mogi-Guacu study site located in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, was to determine if information derived from a mixture model applied to higher resolution TM data could serve as ground truth for the lower resolution MSS sensor. The Constrained Least Squares (CLS) method was used to generate vegetation, soil, and shade fraction images from the TM data. The resulting images were then used to estimate the endmember spectral response for MSS data by regressing each MSS spectral channel against the corresponding proportion values estimated for the same resolution cells from the TM mixture model. The evaluation of the predicted signatures was performed by comparing the corresponding fraction images derived from both the MSS and TM data acquired on 14 Sep. 1986. The techniques serves as a potential tool for integrating information in global studies where remote sensors with different spectral and spatial resolutions were used.

Shimabukuro, Yosio E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adversarial autoencoder ensemble for fast and probabilistic reconstructions of few-shot photon correlation functions for solid-state quantum emitters

Second-order photon correlation measurements [g (2) (τ) functions] are widely used to classify single-photon emission purity in quantum emitters or to measure the multiexciton quantum yield of emitters that can simultaneously host multiple excitations – such as quantum dots – by evaluating the value of g (2) (τ = 0). Accumulating enough photons to accurately calculate this value is time consuming and could be accelerated by fitting of few-shot photon correlations. Here, we develop an uncertainty-aware, deep adversarial autoencoder ensemble (AAE) that reconstructs noise-free g (2) (τ) functions from noise-dominated, few-shot inputs. The model is trained with simulated g (2) (τ) functions that are facilely generated by Poisson sampling time bins. The AAE reconstructions are performed orders-of-magnitude faster, with reconstruction errors and estimates of g (2) (τ = 0) that are lower in variance and similar in accuracy compared to Maximum likelihood estimation and Levenberg-Marquardt least-squares fitting approaches, for simulated and experimentally measured few-shot g (2) (τ) functions (~100 two-photon events) of InP/ZnS/ZnSe and CdS/CdSe/CdS quantum dots. The deep-ensemble model comprises eight individual autoencoders, allowing for probabilistic reconstructions of noise-free g (2) (τ) functions, and we show that the predicted variance scales inversely with number of shots, with comparable uncertainties to computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, this work demonstrates the advantage of machine learning models to perform uncertainty-aware, fast, and accurate reconstructions of simple Poisson-distributed photon correlation functions, allowing for on-the-fly reconstructions and accelerated materials characterization of solid-state quantum emitters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hot, cold, or just right? An infrared biometric sensor to improve occupant comfort and reduce overcooling in buildings via closed-loop control

To improve occupant comfort and save energy in buildings, we have developed a closed-loop air conditioning (AC) sensor-controller that predicts occupant thermal sensation from the thermographic measurement of skin temperature distribution, then uses this information to reduce overcooling (cooling-energy overuse that discomforts occupants) by regulating AC output. Taking measures to protect privacy, it combines thermal-infrared (TIR) and color (visible spectrum) cameras with machine vision to measure the skin-surface temperature profile. Since the human thermoregulation system uses skin blood flow to maintain thermoneutrality, the distribution of skin temperature can be used to predict warm, neutral, and cool thermal states. We conducted a series of human-subject thermal-sensation trials in cold-to-hot environments, measuring skin temperatures and recording thermal sensation votes. We then trained random-forest classification machine-learning models (classifiers) to estimate thermal sensation from skin temperatures or skin-temperature differences. The estimated thermal sensation was input to a proportional integral (PI) control algorithm for the AC, targeting a sensation level between neutral and warm. Our sensor-controller includes a sensor assembly, server software, and client software. The server software orients the cameras and transmits images to the client software, which in turn assesses occupant skin temperature distribution, estimates occupant thermal sensation, and controls AC operation. A demonstration conducted in a conference room in an office building near Houston, TX showed that our system reduced overcooling, decreasing AC load by 42% when the room was occupied while improving occupant comfort (fraction of “comfortable” votes) by 15 percentage points.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Transition-State Scaling Relationships and Universal Transition-State Vibrational and Entropic Correlations for Dehydrogenations

Linear scaling relationships (LSRs) and Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi (BEP) or transition-state scaling (TSS) relations aid with the prediction of electronic energies. However, temperature effects and pre-exponentials are often taken as constants across metal surfaces or a homologous series. Vibrational scaling relationships (VSRs) offer a way to determine such parameters. Transition-state VSRs (TSVSRs) between local minima and transition states of AH X (A = C, N, O) surface diffusions correlate with BEP relations and broaden to thermochemical property scaling. Using density functional theory, we extend TSVSRs to AHX dehydrogenation reactions on transition-metal surfaces, relating vibrational modes of local minima to transition states. We first predict the slopes of the TSS relations by incorporating bond angles using the Slater–Koster structure factors and hybridization through crystal orbital overlap population analysis and energy overlap integrals between adsorbates and metal surfaces. Additionally, we uncover universal thermochemical property scaling, enabling the estimation of entropies and temperature corrections to enthalpies across a homologous series. Here, we demonstrate both significant vibrational corrections in reactions with low intrinsic electronic barriers and considerable variation in the pre-exponential of a simple dehydrogenation reaction across metals and AH X adsorbates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hourglass-type bulk Ni 3 d band and Ce 4 f Kondo resonance states in the potential topological Kondo semimetal CeNiSn via angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy

The electronic structure of CeNiSn, which is a potential topological Kondo insulator and a Dirac nodal-loop semimetal, has been investigated by employing temperature (T) dependent angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES). The Fermi surfaces (FSs) and the band structures of CeNiSn for three orthogonal crystallographic planes are measured, in which both the very dispersive bands and the flat bands are observed, having mainly the Ni 3d character and the Ce 4f character, respectively. The measured FSs and ARPES bands agree reasonably well with the density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The Fermi-edge (E F ) photon energy (hν) map along k b (=k (010) ) shows that the metallic E F -crossing states on the (010) surface have the three-dimensional character, suggesting that the observed E F -crossing metallic states do not correspond to the topological surface states of the two-dimensional character. On the other hand, albeit weak, the features of the hourglass-type bulk band crossings are observed along SXS, with the energies and the slopes being similar to those predicted by the DFT calculations, supporting the Dirac semimetallic nature of CeNiSn. In T-dependent ARPES, the Ce 4f Kondo resonance states are clearly revealed at low T, which become much suppressed above ~80 K. This feature is consistent with the Kondo temperature of CeNiSn, estimated from its ρ(T) data. This work demonstrates the importance of the coherent Kondo states in determining the topological properties of CeNiSn.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Molten Salt Corrosion Tests of Additively Manufactured Stainless Steel 316H

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) have drawn considerable interest due to their favorable safety features, high thermal efficiency, and compatibility with different fuel cycles. Yet, the success of MSRs hinges critically on the performance of structural materials to be used in these aggressive molten salt environments, where corrosion and material compatibility remain primary challenges to long-term reliability. Additively manufactured (AM) nuclear structural materials prompt the use of novel geometries and compositions to enhance material performance and reduce costs of constructing MSRs. The rapid solidification conditions inherent to AM processing impart distinctive microstructural features, including cellular sub-structures, dislocation densities, residual stress, and oxide inclusions, which can influence material performance in MSR components. While the mechanical properties of AM stainless steels have been widely studied, their corrosion behavior, particularly in molten salt environments, has received far less attention. Addressing these needs, the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program provides a framework for systematically evaluating how unique microstructures produced by AM processes influence the performance of these materials in these demanding environments and for developing reproducible testing workflows that can support future code qualification efforts and standards development. Bridging this knowledge gap is essential for assessing the viability of AM alloys in MSRs and informing qualification strategies. A further challenge is the absence of standardized protocols for molten salt corrosion testing. Accordingly, this report provides an account of the corrosion evaluation of AM 316H stainless steel in NaCl 2 -MgCl 2 molten salt at 550 °C, with exposure times of 100 and 500 hours. It documents the experimental procedures implemented under the AMMT program, including salt preparation, exposure protocols, and post-test characterization methods, to establish reproducibility and transparency. Importantly, the study examines AM 316H samples in the as-fabricated condition, directly reflecting the surface state most relevant to engineering applications, and compares their behavior to machine-cut surfaces. Overall, preliminary evaluations have noted that surface conditions (e.g. morphology, contamination, etc.) have a noticeable impact on the corrosion resiliency. The impact of the corrosion is difficult to detect at 100h, unless, in the case of AM 316H, the specimen surface is decontaminated. After 500 h, as-fabricated surfaces of AM and wrought 316H display evidence of general versus preferential corrosion attack, respectively. Both AM and wrought 316H machine-cut surfaces exhibit a continuous Cr depletion zone, evident of general corrosion. While the estimated extent of corrosion appears within the same order of magnitude regardless of the surface condition, it is apparent that more predictable behavior is observed on machine-cut surfaces. Nonetheless, further investigation is necessary to fully elucidate the corrosion mechanism under these conditions.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

The value of wake steering wind farm flow control in US energy markets

Abstract. Wind farm flow control represents a category of control strategies for achieving wind-plant-level objectives, such as increasing wind plant power production and/or reducing structural loads, by mitigating the impact of wake interactions between wind turbines. Wake steering is a wind farm flow control technology in which specific turbines are misaligned with the wind to deflect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thus increasing overall wind plant power production. In addition to promising results from simulation studies, wake steering has been shown to successfully increase energy production through several recent field trials. However, to better understand the benefits of wind farm flow control strategies such as wake steering, the value of the additional energy to the electrical grid should be evaluated – for example, by considering the price of electricity when the additional energy is produced. In this study, we investigate the potential for wake steering to increase the value of wind plant energy production by combining model predictions of power gains using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) engineering wind farm flow control tool with historical electricity price data for 15 existing US wind plants in four different electricity market regions. Specifically, for each wind plant, we use FLORIS to estimate power gains from wake steering for a time series of hourly wind speeds and wind directions spanning the years 2018–2020, obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The modeled power gains are then correlated with hourly electricity prices for the nearest transmission node. Through this process we find that wake steering increases annual energy production (AEP) between 0.4 % and 1.7 %, depending on the wind plant, with average increases in potential annual revenue (i.e., annual revenue of production, ARP) 4 % higher than the AEP gains. For most wind plants, ARP gain was found to exceed AEP gain. But the ratio between ARP gain and AEP gain is greater for wind plants in regions with high wind penetration because electricity prices tend to be relatively higher during periods with below-rated wind plant power production, when wake losses occur and wake steering is active; for wind plants in the Southwest Power Pool – the region with the highest wind penetration analyzed (31 %) – the increase in ARP from wake steering is 11 % higher than the AEP gain. Consequently, we expect the value of wake steering, and other types of wind farm flow control, to increase as wind penetration continues to grow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗