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At least 595 records · Page 33

Comparison of Local Scale Measured and Modeled Brightness Temperatures and Snow Parameters from the CLPX 2003 by Means of a Dense Medium Radiative Transfer Theory Model

Microwave remote sensing offers distinct advantages for observing the cryosphere. Solar illumination is not required, and spatial and temporal coverage are excellent from polar-orbiting satellites. Passive microwave measurements are sensitive to the two most useful physical quantities for many hydrological applications: physical temperature and water content/state. Sensitivity to the latter is a direct result of the microwave sensitivity to the dielectric properties of natural media, including snow, ice, soil (frozen or thawed), and vegetation. These considerations are factors motivating the development of future cryospheric satellite remote sensing missions, continuing and improving on a 26-year microwave measurement legacy. Perhaps the biggest issues regarding the use of such satellite measurements involve how to relate parameter values at spatial scales as small as a hectare to observations with sensor footprints that may be up to 25 x 25 km. The NASA Cold-land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX) generated a dataset designed to enhance understanding of such scaling issues. CLPX observations were made in February (dry snow) and March (wet snow), 2003 in Colorado, USA, at scales ranging from plot scale to 25 x 25 km satellite footprints. Of interest here are passive microwave observations from ground-based, airborne, and satellite sensors, as well as meteorological and snowpack measurements that will enable studies of the effects of spatial heterogeneity of surface conditions on the observations. Prior to performing such scaling studies, an evaluation of snowpack forward modelling at the plot scale (least heterogeneous scale) is in order. This is the focus of this paper. Many forward models of snow signatures (brightness temperatures) have been developed over the years. It is now recognized that a dense medium radiative transfer (DMRT) treatment represents a high degree of physical fidelity for snow modeling, yet dense medium models are particularly sensitive to snowpack structural parameters such as grain size, density, and depth---parameters that may vary substantially within a snowpack. Microwave radiometric data and snow pit measurements collected at the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS) during the third Intensive Observation Period (IOP3) of the CLPX have been used to test the capabilities of a DMRT model using the Quasi Crystalline Approximation with Coherent Potential (QCA-CP). The radiometric measurements were made by the University of Tokyo s Ground Based Microwave Radiometer-7 (GBMR-7) system. We evaluate the degree to which a DMRT-based model can accurately reproduce the GBMR-7 brightness temperatures at different frequencies and incidence angles.

Tedescol, Marco↗

Physical Oceanography in the Solar System and Beyond

A key controller of a planet’s rotational evolution, and hence habitability, is tidal dissipation, which on Earth occurs primarily in the oceans. As the discovery of habitable exoplanets is a primary objective of exoplanet research, it is imperative that we understand how “exo-oceans” behave. Despite this importance, little research has investigated the physical oceanography of worlds other than Earth. This oversight has occurred even though the Earth science community has studied tidal flows in Earth’s oceans for over a century and developed sophisticated models that exquisitely match satellite altimetry data, e.g. Here, we present a) models of tidal effects on exoplanets to motivate the problem, b) the application of a physical oceanography model to a putative ancient Venus ocean, and c) the application of that model to an ensemble of “alternative Earths” with a range of continental configurations and seafloor properties. We find that oceanic tidal dissipation can span 5 orders of magnitude, revealing that simulating exo-oceans with Earth science tools will provide fundamental insight into exoplanet evolution and habitability

Physical Oceanography↗

Modeling the Effect of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field on Cosmic Ray Muon Shadows

Cosmic ray (CR) muon shadows were located using muon data from the MINOS Far Detector in Northern Minnesota. The shadows were located independently across 3 time periods; near solar minimum, solar maximum, and over the entire 13 year span of the data. A muon distribution for each shadow was then sampled to simulate CR motions near the Sun using the Parker Spiral model of the Sun’s IMF and a dipole model of the Earth’s GMF. The resulting particle distributions were then compared to their position with respect to the Sun. An analytical relationship between the primary CR cutoff energy E0 and the associated shadow deflections was observed. The minimum cutoff energy of the primary CR energy spectrum consistent with the Parker Spiral model was determined to be $E_0 = 22.8 \pm 1.2$~TeV. This value is 2-3 times higher than the experimentally determined value. Complexities that can be added to the Parker Spiral Model and affect the overall shift of the the Sun’s cosmic ray shadow are discuss ed to explain discrepancies. Results show that the Parker Spiral model is most consistent with the the solar minimum shadow and least consistent with the solar maximum shadow, as expected.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Determining soil moisture from geosynchronous satellite infrared data - A feasibility study

Numerical modelling results are reported from a pilot study investigating the feasibility of developing a technique for daily soil moisture measurement throughout the world, based on GOES infrared data. A detailed one-dimensional boundary layer-surface-soil model was used in order to determine which physical parameters observable from GOES are most sensitive to soil moisture, and which are most effected by seasonal changes, atmospheric effects and vegetation cover. The results of the sensitivity test show that the mid-morning differential of surface temperature with respect to absorbed solar radiation is optimally sensitive to soil moisture. A case study comparing model results with GOES infrared data confirms the sensitivity of this parameter to soil moisture and also confirms the applicability of the model to predicting area-averaged surface temperature changes. Model measurements of soil moisture are expected to be most accurate for dry or marginal agricultural areas where drought is common. Sources of error, including the advection of clouds, are examined and methods of minimizing error are discussed.

Wetzel, P. J.↗

Nebula Models of Non-Equilibrium Mineralogy: Wark-Lovering Rims

Introduction: The meteorite record contains several examples of minerals that would not persist if allowed to come to equilibrium with a cooling gas of solar composition. This includes all minerals in CAIs and AOAs. Their survival is generally ascribed to physical removal of the object from the gas (isolation into a large parent object, or ejection by a stellar wind), but could also result from outward radial diffusion into cooler regions, which we discuss here. Accretion of CAIs into planetesimals has also been relied on to preserve them against loss into the sun. However, this suggestion faces several objections. Simple outward diffusion in turbulence has recently been modeled in some detail, and can preserve CAIs against loss into the sun [2]. Naturally, outward radial diffusion in turbulence is slower than immediate ejection by a stellar wind, which occurs on an orbital timescale. Here we ask whether these different transport mechanisms can be distinguished by nonequilibrium mineralogy, which provides a sort of clock. Our application here is to one aspect of CAI mineralogy - the Wark-Lovering rims (WLR); even more specifically, to alteration of one layer in the WLR sequence from melilite (Mel) to anorthite (An).

Cuzzi, J. N.↗

Improving a Multilevel Turbulence Closure Model for a Shallow Lake in Comparison With Other 1-D Models

Lakes differ from lands in water availability, heat capacity, albedo, and roughness, which affect local surface-atmospheric interactions. This study modified a multilevel upper ocean model (UOM) for lake applications and evaluated its performance in Lake Taihu (China) with comprehensive measurements against three popular one-dimensional (1-D) lake models. These models were based on different concepts, including the self-similarity (FLake), the wind-driven eddy diffusion (LISSS), the k-ε turbulence closure (SIMSTRAT), and a simplified turbulence closure (UOM). The surface flux scheme in these models was unified to exclude the discrepancies in representing air-lake exchanges. All models in their default formulations presented obvious cold water temperature biases and largely underestimated the lake surface temperature (LST) diurnal range. For each model, these deficiencies were significantly reduced by incorporating new physics schemes or calibrated tunable parameters based on systematic sensitivity tests. The primary modifications for UOM included (1) a new scheme of decreased surface roughness lengths to better characterize the shallow lake, (2) a solar radiation penetration scheme with increased light extinction coefficient and surface absorption fraction to account for the high water turbidity, and (3) turbulent Prandtl number increased by a factor of 20 to reduce the turbulent vertical mixing. All other models were improved in these three aspects (roughness, extinction, and mixing) within their original formulations. Given these improvements, UOM showed superior performance to other models in capturing LST diurnal cycle and daily to seasonal variations, as well as summer-autumn vertical stratification changes. The new UOM is well suited for application in shallow lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Hesse, Michael↗

Assessing the Performance of a Circular Economy for Wind Energy Technologies: A Summary of Three Analytical Tools

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources and presents opportunities for addressing series of economic and environmental objectives at local, regional, and national levels. Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. As a result, it is important to evaluate the performance and tradeoffs associated with circular economy transitions. This poster summaries three previously published analytical tools that were used to assess the performance of developing a circular economy for wind energy technologies: the Renewable Energy Materials Properties Database (REMPD), a circular economy agent-based model for wind blades (CE Wind ABM), and the Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework. The REMPD is a comprehensive database of materials used in wind and solar plants, including material quantities and physical materials availability. The CE Wind ABM allows us to understand how wind stakeholders' end-of-life behaviors influence wind blade circularity and evaluate the impact of regional variables (e.g., logistics and transportation). And, the CELAVI framework is a modular framework that can be used to evaluate the impacts associated with circular economy transitions. These three analytical tools have been applied to evaluate circular economy transitions for wind energy technologies and they could be expanded to other technologies and products.

agent-based modeling↗

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Homeostatic tendencies of the earth's atmosphere

The concept is developed that the atmosphere of the earth flows in a closed system controlled by and for the biosphere. The environmental factors delimiting the biosphere are examined. It is found that neither oxygen nor pressure per se limit the distribution of life as a whole. Rather the major physical variables determining the distribution of organisms are solar radiation, temperature, water abundance, and the concentrations of hydrogen and other ions and elements. An attempt is made to model temperature and atmospheric composition of a lifeless earth.

Lovelock, J. E.↗

A time-dependent diffusion convection model for the long term modulation of cosmic rays

A model is developed which incorporates to first order the direct effects of the time dependent diffusive propagation of interstellar cosmic rays in a slowly changing interplanetary medium. The model provides a physical explanation for observed rigidity-dependent phase lags in modulated spectra (cosmic ray hysteresis). The average distance to the modulating boundary during the last solar cycle is estimated.

Gallagher, J. J.↗

Evidence for the three-stage cooling history of olivine-porphyritic fluid droplet chondrules

A three-stage model for the cooling of olivine-porphyritic fluid droplet chondrules found in ordinary chondrites is proposed, in light of an experimental examination of three haplochondritic melts to determine thermal parameters in a pre-accretionary chondrule environment. The model encompasses: (1) initial continuous cooling from at least liquidus temperatures, at 300-4000 C/hour, to about 1300 C, over approximately 5-60 min; (2) interruption of the initial cooling by a short-duration isothermal event at about 1300 C; and (3) quenching. This thermal model, in which the entire history of fluid droplet chondrules is only a brief process in the early history of the solar system, suggests a specific and restricted physical origin for chondrules which is not likely to have been achieved by such repetitive, small-scale events as planetary surface impact splattering or volcanism. A single, large-scale event is postulated.

Planner, H. N.↗

Model of Jovian F region ionosphere

To date, seven electron density profiles of the Jovian ionosphere have been furnished by the radio occultation experiments aboard the Pioneer and Voyager space probes. The data correspond to various localities (latitudes and longitudes) and times (dawn and dusk) and phases of sunspot cycle (high and low). This renders comparative studies difficult. Nevertheless, the possibility of existence of diurnal variation, equatorial anomaly, and auroral particle precipitation in the Jovian ionosphere have been put forth. The grand magnitude and depth of the equatorial anomaly, in particular, is a matter of great interest and speculation. Correct interpretations of the data and the physical processes in the complex Jovian atmospheric environment will remain a major task for the Aeronomer for decades to come. Model studies of a Jovian ionosphere created by solar EUV radiation and subjected to model ExB drifts showed that equatorial anomaly similar to that in the terrestrial ionosphere can indeed be produced in the Jovian ionosphere. However, owing to the difference in size and rotation period of the two planets and the ionic compositions, much larger drift velocities are required to produce a comparable anomaly in the Jovian atmosphere.

Tan, A.↗

Solar-terrestrial models at the National Space Science Data Center

The National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) and World Data Center A for Rockets and Satellites (WDC-A-R&S) has a long record of participation in the worldwide efforts to establish and improve empirical models for the different regions of the solar-terrestrial environment. The center maintains a unique archive of solar-terrestrial models and related applications software, described in a recently published models catalog. The software packages are distributed on tape, diskette, and on-line on the Space Physics Analysis Network (SPAN). Four of the most frequently requested models (IRI, MSIS/CIRA, IGRF, AE-8/AP-8) can also be accessed and run on the NSSDC Online Documentation and Information Service (NODIS) account, which can be reached from any SPAN node.

Bilitza, D.↗

Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

This paper presents numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical in variants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), give a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗

Origin of coronal mass ejection and magnetic cloud: Thermal or magnetic driven?

A fundamental problem in Solar-Terrestrial Physics is the origin of the solar transient plasma output, which includes the coronal mass ejection and its interplanetary manifestation, e.g. the magnetic cloud. The traditional blast wave model resulted from solar thermal pressure impulse has faced with challenge during recent years. In the MHD numerical simulation study of CME, the authors find that the basic feature of the asymmetrical event on 18 August 1980 can be reproduced neither by a thermal pressure nor by a speed increment. Also, the thermal pressure model fails in simulating the interplanetary structure with low thermal pressure and strong magnetic field strength, representative of a typical magnetic cloud. Instead, the numerical simulation results are in favor of the magnetic field expansion as the likely mechanism for both the asymmetrical CME event and magnetic cloud.

Zhang, Gong-Liang↗

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Specification of Error Statistics

A global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off-line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical-space Statistical Analysis Scheme (PSAS). This system became operational in December 1999. A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme, and in particular, the forecast and observation error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data is sparse. Forecast error variance model is proportional to the ozone field. The forecast error covariance parameters were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using x squared statistics. The analyzed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and HALOE. There is better than 10% agreement between mean Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and analysis fields between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root-mean-square (RMS) difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global RMS difference between SBUV observed and analyzed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

Prototyping the Future

Advanced Ceramics Research (ACR) of Tucson, Arizona, researches transforming scientific concepts into technological achievement. Through the SBIR (Small Business Innovative Research) program, ACR developed a high pressure and temperature fused deposition system, a prototyping system that is known as extrusion freeform fabrication. This system is useful in manufacturing prosthetics. ACR also developed a three-dimensional rapid prototyping process in which physical models are quickly created directly from computer generated models. Marshall Space Flight Center also contracted ACR to fabricate a set of ceramic engines to be appraised for a solar thermal rocket engine test program.

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