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hydro-hifem v.1.0

SAND2021-3180 O The hydro-hifem 1.0 software is used to simulate transient physical processes in large geologic environments consisting of complex fractures and man-made infrastructures with affordable computational cost and mesh refinement. The Earth models with such complex model features can be designed by considering the reduction of insignificant dimensions of fractures/infrastructures and embracing their corresponding hierarchical material properties, and their computational meshes are generated by using Cubit. The finite element solutions are automatically distributed across nodes of parallel cluster for efficient computation of transient fluid flow or heat conduction in geologic media. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Beskardes, GungorDidem↗

Urban Flood Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification and Physics‐Informed Gaussian Processes Regression Forecasting

Abstract Estimating uncertainty in flood model predictions is important for many applications, including risk assessment and flood forecasting. We focus on uncertainty in physics‐based urban flooding models. We consider the effects of the model's complexity and uncertainty in key input parameters. The effect of rainfall intensity on the uncertainty in water depth predictions is also studied. As a test study, we choose the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model of a part of the city of Minneapolis. The uncertainty in the ICPR model's predictions of the floodwater depth is quantified in terms of the ensemble variance using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method. Our results show that uncertainties in the studied domain are highly localized. Model simplifications, such as disregarding the groundwater flow, lead to overly confident predictions, that is, predictions that are both less accurate and uncertain than those of the more complex model. We find that for the same number of uncertain parameters, increasing the model resolution reduces uncertainty in the model predictions (and increases the MC method's computational cost). We employ the multilevel MC method to reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in a high‐resolution ICPR model. Finally, we use the ensemble estimates of the mean and covariance of the flood depth for real‐time flood depth forecasting using the physics‐informed Gaussian process regression method. We show that even with few measurements, the proposed framework results in a more accurate forecast than that provided by the mean prediction of the ICPR model.

Kohanpur, Amir H.↗

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Physics-constrained Gaussian process model for prediction of hydrodynamic interactions between wave energy converters in an array

To improve the efficiency of wave farms and achieve maximum power generation, the layout of wave energy converters (WECs) in an array needs to be carefully designed so that the hydrodynamic interactions can be positively exploited. For this, the hydrodynamic characteristics of the WEC array in different layouts need to be calculated. However, such calculations using numerical models usually entail significant computational cost, especially for large arrays of WECs. To address the computational challenge, a physics-constrained Gaussian process (GP) model is proposed to replace the original expensive numerical model and predict the hydrodynamic characteristics of the WECs for any array layout. By exploring the relationship between the WEC array (i.e., the input) and different hydrodynamic characteristics (i.e., the output), here we summarize a set of physical constraints/features, including invariance, symmetry, and additivity. This prior knowledge about the input-output relationship is then directly embedded in the constructed GP model through the design of physics-constrained kernels. In particular, a double-sum invariant kernel is first developed to incorporate the invariance and symmetry features, and then an additive kernel is developed to incorporate the additive feature of the problem. The invariant kernel and the additive kernel are then integrated to construct the physics-constrained GP model. Compared to the standard GP model, the proposed physics-constrained GP models require less training data to achieve the desired accuracy in predicting the hydrodynamic characteristics and are also less vulnerable to the curse of dimensionality (i.e., good scalability for large arrays) due to the use of an additive kernel. The efficiency, accuracy, and scalability of the proposed approach are demonstrated through an application to predict the hydrodynamic characteristics for WEC arrays of different sizes and layouts.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Inference of Liquid Structure from Scattering Data

We present a nonparametric Bayesian framework to infer radial distribution functions from experimental scattering measurements with uncertainty quantification using nonstationary Gaussian processes. The Gaussian process prior mean and kernel functions are designed to mitigate well-known numerical challenges with the Fourier transform, including discrete measurement binning and detector windowing, while encoding fundamental yet minimal physical knowledge of the liquid structure. We demonstrate uncertainty propagation of the Gaussian process posterior to unmeasured quantities of interest. Experimental radial distribution functions of liquid argon and water with uncertainty quantification are provided as both a proof of principle for the method and a benchmark for molecular models.

Chemical structure↗

Ultrasonic-Assisted Extrusion Processing for Enhancing Physical Properties of High-Density Polyethylene by Flow-Induced Crystallization

The evolution of crystallinity resulting from stress imposed on a melt, known as flow-induced crystallinity, can strongly influence the mechanical and physical properties of semicrystalline polymers. This study investigates shear-induced crystallization by applying an ultrasonic field to the melt flow as it passes through dies with various geometries. A custom-built sonication die is employed for controlling the dynamic temperature and shear environment, resulting in molecular alignment and potential for flow-induced crystallization. Application of both conventional and ultrasonic shear rates at the equilibrium melt temperature of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) was investigated to accelerate crystallinity and manipulate the crystal morphology across the film in pursuit of improved mechanical and gas barrier properties without the need for additives or other polymer layers. The relationships among ultrasonic-assisted extrusion processing, polymer structure, and performance were analyzed using wide- and small-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS and SAXS), tensile testing, and oxygen transmission rate (OTR) analysis. Multiple linear regression models were implemented to predict the correlation among HDPE structure, process, and properties. Structural analysis revealed that both conventional and ultrasonic shear rates had the most significant influence on lamellar spacing and redistribution of rigid and soft amorphous fractions within the crystalline domains, ultimately dictating the mechanical and physical properties of the films. The goal is to explore the potential of the ultrasonic-assisted high crystallinity monolayer that can replace some of the functionality of complex, heterogeneous multilayer packaging with a single-material film having enhanced oxygen barrier properties.

crystallinity↗

The Influence of Nonlocal Metal–Dielectric Environments on Physical and Chemical Processes

Plasmonic nanolayers and laminar metallic/dielectric multilayers were originally developed for optical cloaking applications and lensing applications that could potentially image objects whose size was below the diffraction limit. These assemblies were initially formed from gold or silver nanorods grown within an alumina mesh. However, more recently, assemblies with similar properties have also been prepared by sequential thin-layer deposition of alternating layers of gold and magnesium fluoride (MgF 2 ). These metal/dielectric composite materials enable control of the dielectric constant in the directions perpendicular to the layers and balance the real and imaginary dielectric constants of the assembly such that the speed and the amplitude of the waves traveling through the assembly are not attenuated. In this Account, we will also focus on a few of the applications ranging from surface wetting to fluorescence quenching to enhancement of photochemical reactions. First, we will share an introduction to processes used to create these materials, which are combinations of low refractive index metals and transparent higher index materials arranged in a scalable repeating fashion. Two fabrication methods were employed: an electrochemical deposition of Ag nanorods into an anodized alumina matrix which produced materials with an anisotropic negative refractive index material within the plane of the film and lamellar metal/dielectric layers in which the negative index perpendicular to the growth direction. These alternating layers of plasmonic metals and dielectric materials were ultimately chosen to prepare films for further testing, because of their relative ease of fabrication. We will continue with a discussion of a few of the applications of both of these nonlocal dielectric composite materials including more specialized plasmonic, composite, and hyperbolic metamaterials including fluorescence quenching, photochemical reactions, and surface wetting. In each of these applications, the unique response caused by the enhancement of the electric field and the interface between hyperbolic materials and plasmonic materials as they interact photophysically with their near neighbors is presented. In each of the applications, the enhanced electric field extends from the composite substrate layer to interact with its near neighbors and beyond. Furthermore, the presence of this extended interaction can be observed in the form of decreased emission lifetime, enhancement of photochemical reaction rates, and changes in the surface energies measured by contact angle goniometry. In this Account, all of these situations will be addressed. Finally, we will conclude with a summary and vision for the future as well as a discussion of the unique challenges and opportunities available as research active faculty at an HBCU.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Incorporating physical constraints into Gaussian process surrogate models (LDRD Project Summary)

This report summarizes work done under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project titled "Incorporating physical constraints into Gaussian process surrogate models?' In this project, we explored a variety of strategies for constraint implementations. We considered bound constraints, monotonicity and related convexity constraints, Gaussian processes which are constrained to satisfy linear operator constraints which represent physical laws expressed as partial differential equations, and intrinsic boundary condition constraints. We wrote three papers and are currently finishing two others. We developed initial software implementations for some approaches. This report summarizes the work done under this LDRD.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

AI-Enabled Discovery and Physics-Based Optimization of Energy Efficient Processing Strategies for Advanced Turbine Alloys (Final Technical Report)

In this project, the multi-organizational team of academic and industrial researchers from the University of Kentucky an aerospace and energy generation OEM partner has leveraged novel Digital Process Twin (DPT) models of process/structure interactions (i.e., process-induced surface integrity) to advance a paradigm of fully integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Using efficient process models as the core of a digital process simulator for a reinforcement learning algorithm, the team has integrated industrial data and metrics of structure/performance/energy relationships and manufacturing-related energy metrics to optimize dynamic processing parameters for significantly improved life-cycle energy efficiency of advanced γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloys, as indicated by a set of design relevant parameters (e.g., residual stresses and scrap rate). The key objective and anticipated outcome of the project was at least a 10% reduction in life-cycle embodied energy for a recently developed, γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloy and nickel-based superalloy Inconel 718, through the adoption of the proposed AI-enabled process optimization approach. The final project outcomes significantly exceeded this original target, realizing manufacturing-related energy efficiency improvements of more than 130% for TiAl and up to 80% for Inconel 718. Rather than following the prevailing and highly inefficient empirical paradigm, the proposed study demonstrated the feasibility of adopting a digital, physics-based process design and optimization paradigm. The recurring need for manual intervention, rework, reinspection causes significant production bottlenecks and unnecessary expense associated with delivering the requisite component quality. The OEM partner, and turbine industry in general, expect to reap significant cost and resource savings if an AI-optimized set of parameters can be applied to specific machining operations. The technical scope of the proposed project involved the paving of a realistic path towards model-based and AI-enabled Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), and away from inefficient empirical process optimization and legacy manufacturing practices, which are no longer able to efficiently process novel high-performance turbine alloy materials. The project team will address the fundamental knowledge gap that currently exists within the ICME paradigm with respect to the process/structure/performance/energy impacts of finishing processes. While significant resources have been devoted to the ‘early stages’ of manufacturing, such as alloy design, primary and secondary processing, finishing processes have not been adequately integrated within ICME. To provide an actionable path towards model-based finishing process design (e.g., machining, burnishing, grinding, polishing), we will employ a novel AI-enabled process optimization paradigm, based on a computationally efficient, physics-based process simulator. Through limited experimental work to calibrate and validate our process simulator model via an advanced in-situ characterization technique and process optimization via reinforcement learning, the project will seek to demonstrate a viable alternative to the inefficient ‘legacy’ processing strategies, empirical testing and broad scope machining learning approaches, all of which fail to adequately consider complex process physics. The project team has identified an intermetallic γ-TiAl LPT alloy, which is currently being used as part of the OEM partner’s advanced gas turbine designs. This particular alloy poses significant manufacturing challenges during finishing operations, which limit the degree to which the current turbine design can be manufactured in an energy- and cost-efficient manner. Empirical testing and numerical modeling efforts to optimize processing parameters for γ-TiAl have not been able to resolve these manufacturing challenges, so the proposed physics-based AI-enabled optimization technology would offer a truly novel and transformative capability. The multi-organizational team of academic and industry experts from the UKY and the OEM partner will work together closely to demonstrate the analytical and experimental critical function and characteristic proof of concept of this novel approach.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Advanced Simulation and Experiments of Strongly Coupled Geomechanics and Flow for Gas Hydrate Deposits: Validation and Field Application. Final Report

The objectives of the proposed research are (1) to investigate geomechanical responses induced by depressurization experimentally and numerically; (2) to enhance the current numerical simulation technology in order to simulate complex physically coupled processes by depressurization and (3) to perform in-depth numerical analyses of two selected potential production test sites: one based on the deposits observed at the Ulleung basin UBGH2-6 site; and the other based on well-characterized accumulations from the westend Prudhoe Bay. To these ends, the recipient will have the following specific objectives: 1). Information obtained from multi-scale experiments previously conducted at the recipient’s research partner (the Korean Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM)) that were designed to represent the most promising known Ulleung Basin gas hydrate deposit as drilled at site UBGH2-6 will be evaluated (Task 2). These findings will be further tested by new experimental studies at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and Texas A&M (TAMU) (Task 3) that are designed capture complex coupled physical processes between flow and geomechanics, such as sand production, capillarity, and formation of secondary hydrates. The findings of Tasks 2 and 3 will be used to further improve numerical codes. 2) Develop (in Tasks 4 through 6) an advanced coupled geomechanics and non-isothermal flow simulator (T+MAM) to account for large deformation and strong capillarity. This new code will be validated using data from the literature, from previous work by the project team, and with the results of the proposed experimental studies. The developed simulator will be applied to both Ulleung Basin and Prudhoe Bay sites, effectively addressing complex geomechanical and petrophysical changes induced by depressurization (e.g., frost-heave, strong capillarity, cryo-suction, induced fracturing, and dynamic permeability).

02 PETROLEUM↗

Beyond optimization—supervised learning applications in relativistic laser-plasma experiments

We explore the applications of machine learning techniques in relativistic laser-plasma experiments beyond optimization purposes. We predict the beam charge of electrons produced in a laser wakefield accelerator given the laser wavefront change caused by a deformable mirror. Machine learning enables feature analysis beyond merely searching for an optimal beam charge, showing that specific aberrations in the laser wavefront are favored in generating higher beam charges. Supervised learning models allow characterizing the measured data quality as well as recognizing irreproducible data and potential outliers. Furthermore, we also include virtual measurement errors in the experimental data to examine the model robustness under these conditions. This work demonstrates how machine learning methods can benefit data analysis and physics interpretation in a highly nonlinear problem of relativistic laser-plasma interaction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Groundwater Inflows to the Columbia River Along the Hanford Reach and Associated Nitrate Concentrations

Healthy river ecosystems require the interaction of many physical and biological processes to maintain their status. One physical process supporting biogeochemical cycling is hydrologic exchange (i.e., hydrologic exchange flows, HEFs) between relatively fast-flowing channel waters and slower-flowing surface and subsurface waters (lateral and vertical). Land uses adjacent to rivers have the potential to alter the water quality of off-channel surface and subsurface waters, and HEFs therefore have the potential to deliver solutes associated with river-adjacent land uses to rivers. HEFs can be nonpoint, diffuse sources of pollution, making the ultimate pollution source difficult to identify, especially in large rivers. Here, we seek to identify HEFs in the Columbia River near Richland, WA by looking for anomalies in temperature and electrical conductivity (EC) along the bed of the river in February, June, July, August, and November 2018. These are ultimately the “ends” of HEFs as they are locations of subsurface inflow to the river. We found these anomalies to be a combination of warmer or colder and higher (but not lower) EC than river water. We identified a majority of warm anomalies in February and July 2018, and majority cold anomalies in June, August, and November 2018. High-EC anomalies were found mostly in February, August, and November. Combined, we observe a shift from warm, high EC anomalies dominating in February to equivalent EC, warm anomalies in June, to equivalent EC, cool anomalies dominating July. In August, we also measured dissolved nitrate ($NO^-_3$) in-situ to determine whether anomalies were associated with increased $NO^-_3$ loading to the river, especially along the eastern shoreline, which is dominated by agricultural land use. Inflows along the eastern shoreline have greater concentrations of nitrate than river water (up to 10 mg $N–NO^-_3$/L). This research demonstrates that HEFs are temporally and spatially dynamic transferring heat and solutes to rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CLAS12 remote data-stream processing using ERSAP framework

Implementing a physics data processing application is relatively straightforward with the use of current containerization technologies and container image runtime services, which are prevalent in most high-performance computing (HPC) environments. However, the process is complicated by the challenges associated with data provisioning and migration, impacting the ease of workflow migration and deployment. Transitioning from traditional file-based batch processing to data-stream processing workflows is suggested as a method to streamline these workflows. This transition not only simplifies file provisioning and migration but also significantly reduces the necessity for extensive disk space. Data-stream processing is particularly effective for real-time processing during data acquisition, thereby enhancing data quality assurance. This paper introduces the integration of the JLAB CLAS12 event reconstruction application within the ERSAP data-stream processing framework that facilitates the execution of streaming event reconstruction at a remote data center and enables the return streaming of reconstructed events to JLAB while circumventing the need for temporary data storage throughout the process.

Gyurjyan, Vardan↗

DVMDOSTEM v0.8.3: a terrestrial ecosystem model designed to represent arctic, boreal and permafrost ecosystem dynamics

The impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems are the result of complex physical and ecological processes operating and interacting at a variety of spatio-temporal scales, that can be represented in process-based ecosystem models. DVMDOSTEM is an advanced process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) designed to study ecosystem responses to climate changes and disturbances. It has a particular focus on permafrost regions (i.e. regions characterized by soils that stay partially frozen all year round for at least two consecutive years), encompassing boreal, arctic, and alpine landscapes. The model couples two previous versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) (McGuire et al., 1992): DVMTEM that includes a dynamic vegetation module (DVM) (E. S. Euskirchen et al., 2009), and DOSTEM that includes a dynamic organic soil module (DOS) (H. Genet et al., 2013; Yi et al., 2010). DVMDOSTEM simulates processes at yearly and monthly scales, with some physical processes operating at an even finer temporal resolution. Its versatility allows for site-specific to regional simulations, making it valuable for predicting shifts in permafrost, vegetation, and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. While DVMDOSTEM has been described in the methods sections of many manuscripts, this paper is the first stand alone description of DVMDOSTEM, independent of a particular scientific investigation.

Carman, Tobey B. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (↗