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Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed to estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our laboratory.

Olama, Mohammed M.↗

Battery State-of-Health Aware Path Planning for a Mars Rover

A rover mission consists of visiting waypoints to gather scientific samples based on set requirements. However, rovers face operational uncertainties during the mission, affecting the performance of its electrical and mechanical components and overall mission success. Hence, it is critical to have a decision-making framework that is aware of the health state of the components when planning the path of the vehicle. In particular, battery degradation, and consequently the battery State of Health (SOH), can affect the optimality of decisions made by the autonomous system in the long term. This paper presents a decision-making system that incorporates information on the energy drawn from the battery (based on the vehicle’s velocity), terrain conditions, and model-based prognostic modules to assess the impact on the battery’s state of charge (SoC). The decision-making system was formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to reach the goal destination by sending commands in a determined amount of time while maintaining the battery SoC within the policy stated. The MDP problem was programmed using the open-source framework POMDPs.jl, which has a variety of online and offline solvers. To solve the MDP problem online, we used Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Results from simulations demonstrate the effect that battery degradation and charging plans have on decision-making.

Prognostics↗

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed to estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our lab.

Melin, Alexander M.↗

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for atomistic materials modeling

This release contains data and parameters of HydraGNN-based graph foundation models trained as a result of the work published in the pre-print "Exascale Multi-Task Graph Foundation Models for Imbalanced, Multi-Fidelity Atomistic Data" by M. Lupo Pasini et al. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.15380). We jointly train on 16 open first-principles datasets (544+ million structures covering 85+ elements) using a multi-task architecture with per-dataset heads and a scalable ADIOS2/DDStore data pipeline. On Frontier, we execute six large-scale DeepHyper hyperparameter optimization campaigns in FP64 and promote the top-performing message-passing models to sustained 2,048-node training, yielding a PaiNN-based lead model. The version of HydraGNN used to generate the outputs provided in this release is HydraGNN v5.0 (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0) The list of datasets used for the training of the graph foundation model is the following: 1) Alexandria [1] 2) ANI1x [2] 3) MPTrj [3] 4) Open Catalyst 2020 (OC20) [4] 5) Open Catalyst 2022 (OC22) [5] 6) Open Catalyst 2025 (OC25) [6] 7) Open Direct ir Capture 2023 (ODAC23) [7] 8) Open Materials 2024 (OMat24) [8] 9) Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) [9] 10) OMol25-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with zero total charge) 11) OMol25-non-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with non-zero total charge) 12) Open Polymers 2026 (OPoly2026) [10] 13) Nabla2DFT [11] 14) QCML [12] 15) QM7X [reference 13] 16) transition1x [14] Dataset references: [1] J. Schmidt et al., “A dataset of 175k stable and metastable materials calculated with the PBEsol and SCAN functionals,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 64, 2022. [2] J. S. Smith et al., “The ANI-1ccx and ANI-1x data sets, coupled-cluster and density functional theory properties for molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 7, p. 134, 2020. [Online]. Available: https: //www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0473-z [3] A. Jain et al., “Commentary: The Materials Project: A materials genome approach to accelerating materials innovation,” APL Materials, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 011002, 07 2013. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4812323 [4] L. Chanussot et al., “Open catalyst 2020 (oc20) dataset and community challenges,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 11, no. 10, pp. 6059–6072, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.0c04525 [5] K. Tran et al., “Open catalyst 2022 (oc22) dataset and challenges for oxidation electrocatalysts,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 3066–3084, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.2c05426 [6] S. J. Sahoo et al., “The open catalyst 2025 (oc25) dataset and models for solid-liquid interfaces,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.17862, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17862 [7] A. Sriram et al., “The open DAC 2023 dataset and challenges for sorbent discovery in direct air capture,” ACS Central Science, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 923–941, 2024. [8] L. Barroso-Luque et al., “Open materials 2024 (omat24) inorganic materials dataset and models,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.12771 [9] D. S. Levine et al., “The open molecules 2025 (OMol25) dataset, evaluations, and models,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08762 [10] D. S. Levine et al., The open polymers 2026 (OPoly26) dataset and evaluations,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.23117, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23117 [11] K. Khrabrov et al., “Nabla2dft: A universal quantum chemistry dataset of drug-like molecules and a benchmark for neural network potentials,” in NeurIPS 2024 Datasets and Benchmarks Track, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://openreview.net/forum?id=ElUrNM9U8c [12] S. Ganscha et al., “The QCML dataset, quantum chemistry reference data from 33.5M DFT and 14.7B semi-empirical calculations,” Scientific Data, vol. 12, p. 406, 2025. [13] J. Hoja et al., “QM7-X, a comprehensive dataset of quantum-mechanical properties spanning the chemical space of small organic molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 8, p. 43, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00812-2 [14] M. Schreiner et al., “Transition1x - a dataset for building generalizable reactive machine learning potentials,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 779, 2022. The folder "datasets_ADIOS2_format" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "datasets_ADIOS2_format" directory contains 2 sub-directories, one for the version "v1" of the datasets and one for the version "v2" of the datasets. The version "v1" of the datasets provides values of the total energy as they are extracted from the original data as it was released by the respective institutions. The version "v2" of the datasets provides values of the energy that have been realigned. The realignment was performed by training a linear regression model that predicts the total energy as a function of the chemical composition of the atomistic structure, and then subtract such prediction from the original value of the total energy. Both folders "v1" and "v2" contain 16 sub-directories, each corresponding to an ADIOS2-formatted dataset The folder "DeepHyper-results" contains the configurational files and model's parameters for all the 186 HPO trials that were successfully completed by the scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) runs on Frontier. The content of the folder "DeepHyper-results" I structured as follows: 1) task-list.txt: list of mpnn name, jobid, and deephyper task id 2) gfm_${MPNN}_${JOBID}_0.${TASKID}: run directory with checkpoint files 3) gfm_${MPNN}: deephyper summary directory (*.csv) for each specific MPNN type 4) deephyper-experiment-${JOBID}: output and error logs for each job The file "deephyper-sorted.csv" contains the details of each HydraGNN model built and tested by HPO, obtained by merging the (*.csv) filed from each HPO run executed. Out of all the HPO trials, we selected 10 to continue the training of the respective HydraGNN models. Due to limited computational budget available in the LRN070 allocation we could not complete the training till convergence for all these 10 selected models. The folder "models" contains multiple sub-folders, one per each HydraGNN model trained. Each model sub-folder contains the parameters of each HydraGNN model, with multiple checkpoint-restarts. The list of sub-folders are as follows: 1) multidataset_hpo-BEST1-fp64 2) multidataset_hpo-BEST2-fp64 3) multidataset_hpo-BEST3-fp64 4) multidataset_hpo-BEST4-fp64 5) multidataset_hpo-BEST5-fp64 6) multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64 7) multidataset_hpo-BEST7-fp64 8) multidataset_hpo-BEST8-fp64 9) multidataset_hpo-BEST9-fp64 10) multidataset_hpo-BEST10-fp64 Within each one of these folders, additional auxiliary log files are provided with descriptions about how the training proceeded. The lead PaiNN-model is contained inside "multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64". The file "mlp_branch_weights" contains the parameters of the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) used to reconcile the predictions of the 16 output decoding heads of the HydragNN architectures. The MLP takes in input the chemical composition of the atomistic structure and predicts averaging weights to linearly mix the predictions of each output decoding head toward consolidating them into a single one. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 1.1 billion atomistic structures randomly generated. Each structures is associated with energy and forces predicted with the lead-PaiNN model combined with the MLP model for reconciliation of the multi-branch predictions generated by the 16 output decoding heads. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 9,300 (*.tar.gz) subdirectories, one per Frontier compute node used to execute the inference at exascale. Once uncompressed, each (*.tar.gz) subdirectory contains an ADIOS2 (*.bp) file container, where each atomistic structure is stored as a PyTorch-Geometric Data object. The file "export_dataset_environment_variables.sh" contains the environment variables that need to be set before running the HydraGNN code to reproduce the results provided in this dataset release. The code that can be used to load the ADIOS2 files, load HydraGNN models, and run inference is available at: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

PHANOTATE: a novel approach to gene identification in phage genomes

Motivation: Currently there are no tools specifically designed for annotating genes in phages. Several tools are available that have been adapted to run on phage genomes, but due to their underlying design, they are unable to capture the full complexity of phage genomes. Phages have adapted their genomes to be extremely compact, having adjacent genes that overlap and genes completely inside of other longer genes. This non-delineated genome structure makes it difficult for gene prediction using the currently available gene annotators. Here we present PHANOTATE, a novel method for gene calling specifically designed for phage genomes. Although the compact nature of genes in phages is a problem for current gene annotators, we exploit this property by treating a phage genome as a network of paths: where open reading frames are favorable, and overlaps and gaps are less favorable, but still possible. We represent this network of connections as a weighted graph, and use dynamic programing to find the optimal path. Results: We compare PHANOTATE to other gene callers by annotating a set of 2133 complete phage genomes from GenBank, using PHANOTATE and the three most popular gene callers. We found that the four programs agree on 82% of the total predicted genes, with PHANOTATE predicting more genes than the other three. We searched for these extra genes in both GenBank’s non-redundant protein database and all of the metagenomes in the sequence read archive, and found that they are present at levels that suggest that these are functional protein-coding genes. Availability and implementation: https://github.com/deprekate/PHANOTATE. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantification of trace iodine using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy for real-time monitoring of nuclear off-gas streams

This study evaluated the potential of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for real-time monitoring of trace gas-phase iodine, which is an element of high significance in nuclear applications due to its long radioactive half-life (as iodine-129), volatility, and biological impact. In anticipation of iodine evolving into off-gas systems in molten salt reactor and nuclear fuel recycling applications, this research aimed to assess LIBS performance in flowing argon and helium matrices; optimize measurement parameters using a multichannel spectrometer; and perform calibrations to assess predictive capabilities and limits of detection (LODs). Experimental results successfully measured gas-phase iodine in flowing argon and helium; however, trace iodine was not detected in air. Optimal delay times were determined to be 10 µs for argon and 1 µs for helium, which are consistent with the expected shorter plasma lifetime in helium relative to argon. An emission line survey was provided with the 206.16, 804.37, 902.24, and 905.83 nm peaks, which were identified as the strongest emission peaks. Calibration models were successfully built in both helium and argon, achieving LODs down to 3 ppm in helium and 5 ppm in argon. The iodine emission at 905.83 nm emerged as the most robust for calibration and was subsequently applied to a time series dataset in argon. The predictive trace confirmed the feasibility of employing LIBS for continuous, online quantification of trace iodine in flowing gas systems.

Andrews, Hunter B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

CRADA Final Report: Weld Predictor App

Welding is an important manufacturing process used in a broad range of industries and market sectors, including automotive, aerospace, heavy manufacturing, medical, and defense. During welded fabrication, high localized heat input and subsequent rapid cooling result in the creation of residual stresses and distortion. These residual stresses can significantly affect the fatigue resistance, cracking behavior, and load-carrying capacity of welded structures during service. Further, additional fitting and tacking time is often required to fit distorted subassemblies together, resulting in non-value added cost. Using trial-and-error methods to determine which welding parameters, welding sequences, and fixture designs will most effectively reduce distortion is a time-consuming and expensive process. For complex structures with many welds, this approach can take several months. For this reason, efficient and accurate methods of mitigating distortion are in-demand across all industries where welding is used. Analytical and computational methods and commercial software tools have been developed to predict welding-induced residual stresses and distortion. Welding process parameters, fixtures, and tooling can be optimized to reduce the HAZ softening and minimize weld residual stress and distortion, improving performance and reducing design, fabrication and testing costs. However, weld modeling technology tools are currently accessible only to engineers and designers with a background in finite element analysis (FEA) who work with large manufacturers, research institutes, and universities with access to high-performance computing (HPC) resources. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the US do not typically have the human and computational resources needed to adopt and utilize weld modeling technology. To allow an engineer with no background in FEA and SMEs to gain access to this important design tool, EWI and the Ohio Supercomputer Center (OSC) developed the online weld application software tool “WeldPredictor” ( https://eweldpredictor.ewi.org ). About 1400 users have tested this application. This project marked the beginning of development on the next version of WeldPredictor that addresses many outstanding features of the original, including 3D models, allow more material hardening laws, model material phase transformation, and uses open source finite element solvers to quickly solve problems (as opposed to expensive commercial tools).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Launch Complex 34, SWMU CC054 2023 DNAPL Source Zone Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring, Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring, and Hot Spot 6 Air Sparge System Annual Performance Monitoring and Phase Two Expansion Construction Completion Report Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

This Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) for the Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) Source Zone (DSZ), Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring (LTM), and Hot Spot 6 (HS 6) Air Sparge (AS) System presents the results of Year 14 operations and performance monitoring of the hydraulic containment (HC) Interim Measure (IM), details associated with construction and implementation of the HS 6 AS system expansion (Phase Two), and the results of operations and performance sampling of the HS 6 AS IM at Launch Complex 34 (LC34), located at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS), Florida. The timeframe for activities documented in this PMR extends from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024. LC34 has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit CC054 under the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. The objective of the HC IM at LC34 is to contain the shallow and deep DSZ and surrounding dissolved-phase trichloroethene (TCE) high concentration plume via operation of a hydraulic containment system (HCS). The pre-IM design 300 micrograms per liter (μg/L) TCE groundwater contour was used to establish the deep zone capture area for deep recovery wells, and the shallow zone capture area was defined by the DSZ. The system began operating in 2010, and in 2015, the system was expanded to provide HC for areas within the 300 μg/L TCE groundwater isocontours of HS 3 and 4. In 2018 and 2019, an investigation was conducted to recharacterize the DSZ, which included investigating TCE mass in Layer 7. This data was subsequently used to optimize the pumping rates of the HCS and install additional recovery wells in Layer 7 to more adequately capture residual contaminant mass. The operational period for Year 14 of the HCS was from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024. Operational runtime for the system was 94 percent during Year 14, with downtime events attributed to planned maintenance, system repairs, and power outages. As of March 31, 2024, a total of 344,849,634 cumulative gallons of groundwater containing 94,656 pounds of chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) have been removed by the HCS. During the reporting period covered under this report, the HCS recovered 31,176,393 gallons and approximately 6,319 pounds of CVOC mass. Total combined influent concentrations of TCE have decreased since startup from approximately 280,000 µg/L (January 2010) to 25,000 µg/L (March 2024). During the reporting period, all effluent concentrations from the HCS (aqueous and vapor) were below regulatory reporting limits, indicating the system continues to operate as intended. Performance monitoring was conducted in January 2024 within the DSZ to evaluate TCE contamination. Groundwater samples were collected via DPT at nine locations, consistent with previous events between 2017 and 2022. Full vertical profile sampling was completed at each DPT from 8 to 98 feet below land surface (bls), at 5-foot intervals. The DPT performance monitoring results are summarized in this PMR. The results revealed TCE remains at concentrations greater than 11,000 µg/L in the DSZ (1-percent solubility, indicative of DNAPL) at eight of the nine DPT locations and at depths ranging from 28 to 98 feet bls. An overall decreasing trend of TCE concentrations was observed in DPT samples during this reporting period, which is a reduction from the previous event (December 2022) and the peak event in December 2021, where TCE percentages appeared to increase in all depth zones because several recovery wells were turned off during the AS pilot study in the DSZ. The maximum TCE concentration in January 2024 was 1,600,000 µg/L in the 53 feet bls depth interval at DPT594 (previous maximum result in 2022 was 1,800,000 µg/L in the 48 feet bls depth interval at DPT599). This maximum concentration in the 53 feet bls depth interval is in the deep capture zone. During the January 2024 DPT event, the largest portion of TCE mass was observed in the 48 feet bls interval above/within Layer 4. This trend remains consistent with previous years and appears to indicate continued mass discharge from Layer 4 (fine-grained unit). In addition to DPT sampling, annual groundwater samples were collected from 11 deep monitoring wells in the DSZ area (Layers 7 and 8) in December 2023 to verify vertical and horizontal delineation. Three of the wells were also sampled biweekly to evaluate operations of recovery well RW21D (screened 86 to 106 feet bls), which was installed in January 2023. Of the Layer 7/8 monitoring sampled only annually, results were non-detect or less than groundwater cleanup target levels GCTLs in December 2023, with the exception of one well, IW45D2, which had a cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), detection greater than the GCTL. Of the three wells sampled biweekly during the operational period, the well located closest to Layer 7 recovery well RW21D (IW44D2, screened 105 to 115 feet bls) had concentrations of TCE, cDCE and vinyl chloride (VC) greater than GCTLs throughout the operational period, but displayed a decreasing trend since the peak concentrations in September 2023. The maximum TCE concentration during this operational period was 190,000 µg/L at IW44D2 in September 2023, but reduced to 700 µg/L in March 2024, indicating the HCS is still effectively removing mass from the source area. Expansion of the HCS and addition of new recovery wells is ongoing and will continue to be evaluated as the groundwater recovery scheme is optimized. Details of the expansion and optimization will be provided in a future PMR. The HS 6 AS IM was initiated in 2018 with 160 AS wells and expanded in 2019 with another 140 AS wells. An additional expansion of the HS 6 AS IM was completed during the reporting period covered under this report and details of the construction implementation and startup of the expansion are detailed in Section III of this report. The new expansion, referred to as Phase Two, was implemented between August 17, 2022 and August 28, 2023, and included the installation of 190 air sparge wells to treat an additional 11.2 acres. The original configuration (referred to as Phase One) operated until Phase Two came online, then all but 52 AS wells were turned off so the components could be moved and utilized in the Phase Two area. The 52 AS wells that remain on are in a barrier configuration preventing contaminated groundwater from impacting the treated area. The HS 6 AS system (both Phase One and Two) operated normally during the reporting period covered under this report. Semi-annual performance monitoring of the Phase One configuration was conducted in April and November 2023, consistent with previous years. For the Phase Two configuration, 21 new monitoring wells were installed and sampled quarterly, with a baseline event in July 2023, and quarterly events in November 2023 and February 2024 summarized in this report. Semi-annual monitoring results collected in April and October 2023 show concentrations of contaminants of concern (cDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and VC) have decreased to less than GCTLs in nearly all wells and not impacting the surface water drainage canal, indicating the HS 6 IM continues to meet objectives. The baseline and quarterly sampling for the Phase Two configuration indicate generally decreasing concentrations in wells within and around the perimeter of the treatment area. At least two more quarters of monitoring will be conducted and once those results are evaluated a reduced the sampling frequency may be considered. Overall, the tasks associated with Year 14 operation of the HC IM and operation of the HS 6 AS IM were performed in accordance with recommendations included in the previous 2022 LC34 (Year 13) PMR. Evaluation of results from the HC IM and HS 6 IM show that these systems are operating as designed and meeting performance objectives.

groundwater remediation↗

Next Generation Logistics Systems for Delivering Optimal Biomass Feedstocks to Biorefining Industries in the Southeastern U.S.

The diverse portfolio of biomass sources that is available in the Southeastern U.S., including a significant supply of pine “residue”, represents a valuable strategic position for the region. Through blends formulated based on critical properties, this project will take full advantage of the range in biomass properties afforded by the portfolio to produce a consistent, high-performance feedstock for the industry, while lowering cost. Key developments being targeted to enable this potential include whole-tree transport to a state-of-the-art merchandising depot that will further access biomass from ongoing, forest industry operations. The approach will more effectively utilize the tree and distribute cost, while minimizing in-woods contamination of the woody biomass component. To implement this vision, information on the chemical composition and changes that are induced during multiple preprocessing steps (size reduction, moisture removal, densification, etc.) is needed. New NIR sensor technology will be developed for online monitoring of important biomass properties. The data will be incorporated into a statistical process control platform to improve process efficiency and meet required specifications. Advanced process models are being developed to inform the techno-economic and life-cycle assessment of the program’s impact. The new system will ultimately reduce operational risks from supply chain disruptions, and allow operation of larger-scale biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Online LIBS–ML Framework for Dynamic Characterization of Heterogeneous Waste-Derived Gasification Feedstocks

LIBS−ML framework for real time feedstock characterization during continuous conveyor transport Heterogeneous waste derived feedstocks (e.g., waste coal, biomass and blends) introduce rapid variability in heating value and ash chemistry that affect gasifier operation, yet conventional laboratory characterization techniques are too slow to support proactive control. To address this gap, this study reports on an online, in situ, dynamic characterization framework that couple’s laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) with leakage safe machine learning (ML) regression to deliver real time, decision quality predictions of gasifier relevant properties. A controlled sample matrix spanning two different waste coals, two different biomasses, and engineered blends under two particle size conditions were constructed and benchmarked using standardized laboratory analyses for proximate/ultimate properties and ash composition. LIBS spectra were acquired dynamically as material flowed on a conveyor belt, using high energy 1064 nm laser ablation and shot averaging to improve repeatability and precision. Supervised regression models (multi layer perceptron (MLP) /artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR)) and an optimized weighted ensemble were trained on emission line feature sets using nested cross validation with Bayesian hyperparameter tuning and validated against an independent hold out set. The proposed LIBS−ML workflow achieves near laboratory predictive fidelity across parametric targets (including higher heating value (HHV), ash content, fixed carbon, sulfur, major ash forming oxides, and initial deformation temperature (IDT)), with the weighted ensemble providing a robust default predictor under dynamic measurement conditions. These results demonstrate a practical pathway for real time feedstock characterization that can enable feedforward adjustments and more resilient gasifier operation for variable quality waste derived fuels.

Biomass↗

Using NASA's Giovanni Web Portal to Access and Visualize Satellite-based Earth Science Data in the Classroom

One of the biggest obstacles for the average Earth science student today is locating and obtaining satellite-based remote sensing data sets in a format that is accessible and optimal for their data analysis needs. At the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES-DISC) alone, on the order of hundreds of Terabytes of data are available for distribution to scientists, students and the general public. The single biggest and time-consuming hurdle for most students when they begin their study of the various datasets is how to slog through this mountain of data to arrive at a properly sub-setted and manageable data set to answer their science question(s). The GES DISC provides a number of tools for data access and visualization, including the Google-like Mirador search engine and the powerful GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) web interface.

Lloyd, Steven↗

A hybrid neural architecture: Online attosecond x-ray characterization

The emergence of high-repetition-rate x-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs), such as SLAC’s LCLS-II, serves as our canonical example for autonomous controls that necessitate high-throughput diagnostics paired with streaming computational pipelines capable of single-shot analysis with extremely low latency. We present the deterministic characterization with an integrated parallelizable hybrid resolver architecture, a hybrid machine learning framework designed for fast, accurate analysis of XFEL diagnostics using angular streaking-based sinogram images. This architecture integrates convolutional neural networks and bidirectional long short-term memory models to denoise input, identify x-ray sub-spike features, and extract sub-spike relative delays with sub-30 attosecond temporal resolution. Deployed on low-latency hardware, it achieves over 10 kHz throughput with 168.3 μs inference latency, indicating scalability to 14 kHz with field-programmable gate array integration. By transforming regression tasks into classification problems and leveraging optimized error encoding, we achieve high precision with low-latency performance that is critical for real-time streaming event selection and experimental control feedback signals. This represents a key development in real-time control pipelines for next-generation autonomous science, generally, and high repetition-rate x-ray experiments in particular.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗

Studying the Impact of Momentary Cessation of IBRs Compliant With IEEE Std. 2800-2022 on Transmission Line Protection Elements

This paper examines the impact of inverter-based resource (IBR) momentary cessation timing on transmission system protection relays. IEEE Std. 2800 mandates voltage ride-through, requiring IBRs to remain online during voltage disturbances. However, for severe voltage dips (|V| = 0.1 p.u.), the standard permits current blocking. In practice, vendors implement momentary cessation with varying delays, potentially affecting relay operation if IBRs cease too early. This article studies the impact of the time IBRs enter momentary cessation on transmission line protective relays. Using an electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation, this study models IBR momentary cessation with tunable delays in a realistic transmission network. COMTRADE files generated from EMT simulations are analyzed in MATLAB using detailed protective relay models. Results indicate that IBRs must sustain operation for at least one cycle to ensure proper relay response; otherwise, relays may fail to oper- ate. These findings guide IBR vendors in optimizing momentary cessation settings to enhance transmission line protection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Open-source Numerical Modeling of Solidification Cracking Susceptibility: Application to Refractory Alloy Systems

Introduction. Alloys such as aluminum, nickel-base, and austenitic stainless steels are susceptible to solidification cracking during welding and 3D printing. Compositional optimization is one method used to effectively mitigate solidification cracking of those alloy systems. With the surge in hypersonic and in-space propulsion activities, refractory metals (Nb, Mo, Ta, W, and Re) and their alloy derivatives are increasing in importance due to their extreme high melting point and retention of high-temperature strength; however, their chemistry was most typically optimized to promote ductility during mechanical operations such as drawing and forming. Welding of such alloys has been a challenge due to a number of issues including solidification cracking, atmospheric contamination (O, C, and N), as well as a shift in ductile-to-brittle transition to higher temperature following grain growth induced by welding. Compositional optimization of refractory alloys for solidification cracking resistance in particular is desirable as their usage increases with the advent of advanced manufacturing methods such as 3D printing. This work evaluates the effect of compositional variation in refractory metal systems on the solidification cracking susceptibility with the goals of optimizing existing alloys and joining process techniques, and formulating new alloys with increased solidification cracking resistance. Experimental Procedures. A python code was developed in a Jupyter notebook environment (Michael and Sowards, 2023) to facilitate the calculation of crack susceptibility index proposed by Kou (2015). Composition is entered as a single point, or as a 1-D or 2-D array. The notebook calls pycalphad (Otis and Liu, 2017 and Bocklund et al, 2020) to calculate the evolution of fraction solid as a function of temperature (under either Scheil or equilibrium assumptions) and then evaluates steepness of the fraction solid curve near the terminal stage of solidification to predict solidification cracking resistance. Open source thermodynamic databases available at online repositories are used (van de Walle). The process is setup in an automated fashion to generate plots that show variation in solidification cracking susceptibility according to composition on 1-D line plots or 2-D contour plots. The Jupyter notebook and crack susceptibility algorithm was also integrated with a widely used commercial CALPHAD code for validation and alloy exploration. Results and Discussion. The crack susceptibility model was first validated against a series of refractory alloy compositions evaluated in past work which utilized a specialized Varestraint test built inside a vacuum chamber environment (Lessman and Gold, 1971). The alloys tested in the Varestraint apparatus included T-111 (Ta-8W-2Hf), ASTAR-811C (Ta-8W-1Re-0.7Hf-0.025C), FS-85 (Nb-27Ta-10W-1Zr), T-222 (Ta-9.6W-2.4Hf-0.01C), Ta-10W, B-66 (Nb-5Mo-5V-1Zr), and SCb-291 (Nb-10W-10Ta). The initial test of the model showed a strong correlation with empirical Varestraint data, i.e., a Spearman rank correlation between model predictions and hot cracking measurements was observed to be greater than 0.8. Following the validation, a set of refractory metal binary mixtures was investigated to evaluate sensitivity of Nb, Mo, W, and Ta to C, N, and O content. A series of plots were produced that suggest ppmw ranges of C, N, and O where solidification cracking increases significantly and reaches a maximum. Also comparative ranking of each primary refractory metal to each interstitial was produced. For example C produces greater cracking response in Mo whereas O produces greater cracking response in Ta and Nb. Such compositional values have utility in setting limits on pickup of these interstitial elements during welding and printing rather than using a one-size-fits-all approach. Furthermore, the results have use in determining additive powder recycling requirements, which is especially pertinent for refractory metal powders due to their high cost compared to conventional alloys. Another application created thousands of hypothetical alloys within the nominal specified composition range of two widely used refractory alloys C103 (Nb-10Hf-1Ti) and TZM (Mo-0.5Ti-0.1Zr). The cracking index was calculated for the alloys and results were fed into machine learning regression techniques including Multiple Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, and Lasso Regression to determine relative potency each alloying element had on computed solidification cracking index. A series of linear equations were produced that relate composition of C103 and TZM to solidification cracking index. The crack susceptibility of C103 for example is described by an equation of the form: cracking index ~ O + 0.667*C + 0.635*N + 0.00037*Ta – 0.0008*Hf (in wt.%) From that equation, it is clear that O has strong propensity to induce solidification cracking. Interestingly, Hf is shown to reduce calculated cracking response. Finally, realizing the potential of this method to discover new refractory alloy formulations across the period table that have low solidification cracking sensitivity, the code was applied to new untested alloy systems including W-Zr-C, W-Ta-C, and others. Conclusions. In summary, an open source numerical method has been developed using Python code to calculate Kou’s crack susceptibility index. The method was applied to refractory metals which are inherently difficult to study from a weldability testing standpoint since inert shielding gas is not sufficient and welding is typically done in vacuum, especially in light of findings presented here where oxygen has profound influence on solidification cracking. This work revealed the effect of compositional variations on a series of refractory metals and showed the framework defined here will be useful in 1) the development of new alloys that have improved weldability and 3D printability, 2) placing compositional limits on existing alloys, and 3) ensuring adequate controls of manufacturing processes such as 3D printing where powder reuse is critical. Keywords. pycalphad; Python; refractory metals; solidification cracking. References. B. Bocklund et. al. (2020) http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3630657. S. Kou. (2015) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actamat.2015.01.034. G.G. Lessmann and R.E. Gold. Welding Journal, issue 1, pp. 1-s – 8-s (1971). F.N. Michael and J.W. Sowards. NASA/TM-20230002218 (2023). R. Otis and Z.-K. Liu. (2017) http://doi.org/10.5334/jors.140. A. Van de Wallle et. al. (2018) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.calphad.2018.04.003.

pycalphad↗

A reporting format for field measurements of soil respiration

Field observations of the soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux–soil respiration, RS–are a prime example of ‘long tail’ data that historically have had neither centralized databases nor an agreed-upon reporting format. This has hindered scientific transparency, analytical reproducibility, and novel syntheses with respect to this globally-important component of the carbon cycle. Here we propose a new data and metadata reporting format for RS data, based on engagement with a wide range of researchers in the field as well as expert advisory panels. Our goal was a reporting format that would be relevant and useful for synthesis activities, and optimizing data discoverability and usability while not placing an undue burden on data contributors. We describe previous RS data collection efforts, lessons learned from related databases and data-oriented networks (e.g. FLUXNET) in earth and ecological sciences, and the process of community consultation. The proposed reporting format focuses on chamber-level data and metadata, specifying measurement conditions and, for a given measurement period defined by beginning and ending timestamps, a mean RS flux (or CO2 concentration) and associated ancillary measurements. Fundamentally, this format aims to enable findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable data, while providing ‘future-proofing’ capabilities to support reanalyses using as yet unknown algorithms or approaches. Finally, this proposed RS reporting format is available online, and is intended to be a dynamic document, subject to further community feedback and/or change in the future.

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin↗

Development and Implementation of an Automatic Continuous Online Monitoring and Control Platform for Polymerization Reactions to Sharply Boost Energy and Resource Efficiency in Polymer Manufacturing

The project goal was to create an energy saving paradigm shift in how polymers are manufactured in the 21st century. It used Automatic Continuous Online Monitoring of Polymerization reactions (ACOMP) integrated for the first time with automatic active control to create the innovative ‘ACOMP/Control Interface’, or ‘ACOMP/CI’. ACOMP/CI will begin the transformation from old, inefficient processes into highly evolved, energy and resource efficient ones. The ACOMP platform is broadly applicable to many types of reactions and processes throughout the vast polymer industry. The industry provides materials for sectors such as automotive, aerospace, oil recovery, agriculture, paints, resins, adhesives, pharmaceuticals and therapeutic proteins, optics, electronics, lightweight building materials, and many more. The U.S. chemical industry is one of the last major sectors in which the U.S. has top global stature. It consumes 24% of all U.S. manufacturing energy, produces over $800B of product annually, supports 25% of the U.S. GDP and employs over 6 million people. It is also a major source of GHG emissions. Polymers make up approximately 30% of this sector. It is estimated that annually 60 TBtu of energy could be saved and 3 million tons less of GHG emissions produced by optimizing production in the polyolefin manufacturing sector alone. The project scope included first time design and prototyping of an ACOMP/CI, creation of active reaction controllers, and demonstration of control capabilities on ideal, low concentration polymerization reactions. All these elements of the scope were met, including advances and findings not originally anticipated. Extensions to more complex reactions, beyond the reactor capabilities of the current project ACOMP/CI, such as polyolefins and other high pressure/high temperature reactions, are being proposed in Fall 2017 to CESMII, a DoE based NNMI. The initial proposal was for a three year funded project, but this was reduced to a two year project and budget due to funding constraints. Hence, some of the original plans, such as adaptation of the ACOMP/CI to more relevant industrial processes, such as emulsion and dispersion technologies, could not be carried out. A third year of funding was requested at the end of the project, but DoE did not have resources to grant this. The sub-contractor Fluence Analytics (previously Advanced Polymer Monitoring Technologies, Inc) designed, prototyped, and commissioned a working ACOMP/CI by June 2015. The reaction characteristics to be automatically controlled were i) conversion kinetics, ii) molecular weight, iii) copolymer composition, and iv) simultaneous molecular weight and composition. A two pronged control strategy was used. The Tulane/Fluence group took a basic principles approach that did not rely on kinetic models. The LSU group took a more complex, non-linear model-oriented approach involving complete kinetic descriptions of the reaction system Each of these approaches proved successful in their own way. By April 2016 fully automatic control of conversion and weight average molecular weight, Mw, trajectories was achieved using the Tulane/Fluence (TF) basic principles controller. Similar results were obtained by the LSU non-linear model controller by August 2016. The demonstration system was aqueous free radical polymerization of acrylamide, Am. The control variables were temperature and semi-batch feed to the reactor of Am monomer and initiator. A demonstration of active manual conversion control in an industrial process using high solids in inverse emulsion polymerization of Am was achieved. During Summer 2016 the TF controller was used in conjunction with a chain transfer agent, another control variable, to automatically produce multi-modal molecular weight distributions, MWD, in a single reactor. Industrially, multi-modal MWD are produced by mixing products made in separate reactors, requiring significant extra time, energy, and reactor resources. Recognizing the industrial potential a patent on automatic production of multi-modal polymers was filed, and DoE acknowledged. In Fall 2016 the TF team developed a basic principles controller for copolymer composition and demonstrated it on aqueous free radical copolymerization of comonomers Am and styrene sulfonate, SS. TF then fused the Mw and composition controllers to achieve simultaneous control of both Mw and copolymer composition trajectories. Numerous simultaneous trajectories were demonstrated, including a trimodal composition distribution with constant Mw. Meanwhile, the LSU group developed a Kalman filter to improve the results of their automatic Mw and conversion controller and successful tests were made. During the project the TF team developed a means of computing full MWD during polymer synthesis without need for any chromatographic separation, based on model distributions. This means the polymer product is ‘born characterized’ and this can eliminate post-manufacture analytical laboratory quality control. TF filed a joint patent application on this new approach to chromatography-free determination of MWD with acknowledgment to DoE. The Tulane group obtained a 60MHz NMR during the project and recently completed the first work on separating three comonomers, Am, SS, and Na-acrylate, with a first demonstration of terpolymer composition control with the TF basic principles controller. Widespread dissemination of ACOMP/CI in the polymer manufacturing sector will bolster DoE goals of energy efficiency and reduced GHG emissions: The ability to monitor and actively control polymerization reactions will lead to more efficient use of energy and non-renewable resources, plant and labor time, increase the safety of manufacturing personnel, and will enhance product quality and lead to feasibility of manufacturing of polymers currently too complex for industrial scale production, while leading to less GHG emissions per kilo of product, and allowing for increased U.S. competitiveness in this enormous manufacturing sector. When ACOMP/CI is expanded to the polyolefin industry it is estimated that 60 TeraBTU/year of energy can be saved. Much of this saving is anticipated to come from optimized control of grade changeovers in steady state reactors and maintenance of steady states. Conclusions: ACOMP’s ability to provide continuous realtime data streams of measured polymer and reaction characteristics made it possible, for the first time, to directly and automatically control free radical polymerization reactions. An industrial client of Fluence Analytics has requisitioned the first ACOMP/CI which uses the TF basic principles controller. This sets the stage for FA to add control features to the ACOMP systems it has begun to install on the industrial scale beginning in 2014. Recommendations: This successful project was mainly limited to ideal polymerizations not of an industrial sort. The most energy intensive portion of polymer manufacturing is polyolefins. Adoption of ACOMP/CI to this enormous industrial sector faces the enormous challenges of high temperature, high pressure continuous sampling and high temperature sensor operation to obtain the continuous data needed for direct reaction control. The project team has a strategy for achieving this ambitious goal and will present it in Fall 2017 as a proposal to CESMII/DoE. It is recommended that this upcoming proposal be funded in order to make full use of the achievements of this just ended DoE project as the next step towards making polyolefin ACOMP/CI an energy saving reality. It is projected that ACOMP/CI can have its first polyolefin testbed demonstrations within two years of beginning the proposed project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Online Plug-and-Play Algorithm for Regularized Image Reconstruction

Plug-and-play priors (PnP) is a powerful framework for regularizing imaging inverse problems by using advanced denoisers within an iterative algorithm. Recent experimental evidence suggests that PnP algorithms achieve state-of-the-art performance in a range of imaging applications. Here, we introduce a new online PnP algorithm based on the proximal gradient method (PGM). The proposed algorithm uses only a subset of measurements at every iteration, which makes it scalable to very large datasets. We present a new theoretical convergence analysis, for both batch and online variants of PnP-PGM, for denoisers that do not necessarily correspond to proximal operators. We also present simulations illustrating the applicability of the algorithm to image reconstruction in diffraction tomography. Finally, the results in this paper have the potential to expand the applicability of the PnP framework to very large datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SU-E-J-77: Dose Tracking On An MR-Linac for Online QA and Plan Adaptation in Abdominal Organs

Recent developments made MRI-guided radiotherapy feasible. Simultaneously performed imaging during dose delivery reveals the influence of changes in anatomy not yet known at the planning stage. When targeting highly motile abdominal organs, respiratory gating is commonly employed in MRI and investigated in external beam radiotherapy to mitigate malicious motion effects. The purpose of the presented work is to investigate anatomy-adaptive dose reconstruction in the treatment of abdominalorgans using concurrent (duplex) gating of an integrated MRlinac modality.Using navigators, 3D-MR images were sampled during exhale phase, requiring 3s per axial volume (360×260×100mm{sup 3}, waterselective T1w-FFE). Deformation vector fields (DVF) were calculated for all imaging dynamics with respect to initial anatomy, yielding an estimation of anatomy changes over the time of a fraction. A pseudo-CT was generated from the outline of a reference MR image, assuming a water-filled body. Consecutively, a treatment was planned on a fictional kidney lesion and optimized simulating a 6MV linac in a 1.5T magnetic field. After delivery, using the DVF, the pseudo-CT was deformed and dose accumulated for every individual gating interval yielding the true accumulated dose on the dynamic anatomy during beam-on.Dose-volume parameters on the PTV show only moderate changes when incorporating motion, i.e. ΔD{sub 99} (GTV)=0.3Gy with D{sub 99} (GTV)=20Gy constraints. However, local differences in the PTV region showed underdosages as high as 2.7Gy and overdosages up to 1.4Gy as compared to the optimized dose on static anatomy.A dose reconstruction toolchain was successfully implemented and proved its potential in the duplex gated treatment of abdominal organs by means of an MR-linac modality. While primary dose constraints were not violated on the fictional test data, large deviations could be found locally, which are left unaccounted for in conventional treatments. Dose-tracking of both target structures and organs at risk using 3D MRI during treatment enables truly adaptive hypofractionated radiotherapy. This work was funded by the SoRTS consortium, which includes the industry partners Elekta, Philips and Technolution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗