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DOE OSTI2023

Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Combined Algal Processing, and Biochemical Conversion: Update of the 2022 State-of-Technology Cases

The Department of Energy's (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) aims to develop and deploy technologies to transform renewable biomass resources into commercially viable, high-performance biofuels, bioproducts, and biopower through public and private partnerships. BETO and its national laboratory teams conduct in-depth techno-economic assessments (TEA) of biomass feedstock supply and logistics and conversion technologies to produce biofuels. There are two general types of TEAs: A design case outlines a target case (future projection) for a particular biofuel pathway. It informs R&D priorities by identifying areas in need of improvement, tracks sustainability impact of R&D, and provides goals and benchmarks against which technology progress is assessed. A state of technology (SOT) analysis assesses progress within and across relevant technology areas based on actual results at current experimental scales relative to technical targets and cost goals from design cases, and includes technical, economic, and environmental criteria as available. In addition to developing a TEA for a pathway of interest, BETO also performs a supply chain sustainability analysis (SCSA). The SCSA takes the life-cycle analysis approach that BETO has been supporting for over 20 years. It enables BETO to identify energy consumption, environmental, and sustainability issues that may be associated with biofuel production. Approaches to mitigating these issues can then be developed. Additionally, the SCSA allows for comparison of energy and environmental impacts across biofuel pathways in BETO's research and development portfolio. This technical report describes the SCSAs for the production of renewable hydrocarbon transportation fuels via a range of conversion technologies in the 2022 SOTs: (1) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet sludge from a wastewater treatment plant; (2) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via biochemical conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass; (3) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via HTL of an algae/woody biomass blend; and (4) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via combined algae processing (CAP).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Maintenance Costs: Assessing the Potential of Gear Oil Improvements

Wind turbine operations & maintenance (O&M) costs constitute a sizable portion of total energy cost for wind power. There are many components in a utility-scale wind turbine that need to be lubricated with either oil or grease. This study uses gearbox oil as an example and assesses how lubricant technology improvements may impact wind turbine power production and levelized cost of energy. Using the modeling tools (i.e., WOMBAT, reV, and SAM) developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory and lubrication oil technology scenarios defined based on inputs provided by ExxonMobil and industry stakeholders, we quantify the potential for increasing energy production and reducing maintenance costs across the current and future U.S. fleet of wind turbines as a result of improvements in lubrication technologies. The modeled improvements reduce the median levelized cost of energy by 1-2% across the U.S. fleet. Cumulative saving from gear oil technology improvements in 2050 for U.S. fleet is estimated to be approximately $6 billion. Extending the lubricant replacement interval has a larger impact on total cost and energy production than reducing lubricant cost.

costs↗

DOE OSTI2026

Region-Specific Merchant Hydrogen Market Assessment and Techno-Economic Assessment of Electrolytic Hydrogen Generation: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-18-00751

Utilities need to recover value from baseload and some renewable assets even when the electricity is curtailed. The declining cost of renewables (particularly solar), the persistently low-cost of natural gas, and the declining electricity demand, have all worked to lower the price of electricity. Furthermore, the baseload assets have a high turndown cost, which is not reflected in the low market electricity prices. One option for utilizing the curtailed electricity is hydrogen generation. One important aspect of this project will be to provide a “go/no-go” recommendation on the economic feasibility of pursuing hydrogen generation vs. other markets that could offtake curtailed electricity or nuclear steam. This project will specifically assess the opportunities for hydrogen production and use in the service territories of Southern Company Services (SCS), Exelon SBC, and Xcel Energy. Each utility partner represents a different mix of generation fleets: Exelon has significant nuclear assets, Xcel is primarily renewables (wind) with some nuclear, and SCS represents both a renewables fleet and a heavily baseload fleet, which includes significant nuclear. The Contractors will conduct the study of hydrogen market opportunities by first considering the approximate electricity demand and price profiles for the year, and power generation capacity that can be used to produce hydrogen. Therefore, a profile for hydrogen generation will also be developed to better understand the quantity and timing of hydrogen production. Once the hydrogen production schedule is estimated, hydrogen storage requirements can be determined. This effort will provide sufficient information to make a go/no-go decision on moving ahead with a detailed regional case study for hydrogen production in any of the three utility areas.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Consequence Based Framework for Deployment of Cloud Solutions in the Digital Energy Transition

This study proposes a framework for evaluating cloud computing deployment in the electric sector, focusing on the digital transition of energy systems. It assesses the implications of cloud technology adoption, particularly in terms of security, operational resilience, and efficiency. The paper introduces a method for consequence-driven risk analysis, enabling utilities to prioritize and mitigate potential threats effectively. It also discusses the shared responsibility model in cloud computing, highlighting the need for collaborative security efforts. The research aims to provide utilities with a strategic assessment tool for cloud adoption, emphasizing the importance of security culture in enhancing cloud computing's role in critical infrastructure.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

2023 Billion-Ton Report: An Assessment of U.S. Renewable Carbon Resources - Microalgae

Microalgae is a unique biomass resource that does not need to compete for land and water with other biomass feedstocks because it can be cultivated on low-quality unencumbered land using noncompetitive water types including saline and wastewater. It is included as a complementary resource alongside other biomass feedstocks reported in this study, albeit at higher biomass production costs reflective of more capital-intensive farming operations than typical for terrestrial biomass. Higher biomass costs can be offset by the potential to produce value-added coproducts unique to compositional constituents of microalgae. Relative to the 2016 Billion-Ton Report, this chapter reflects the latest analysis from the 2022 Algae Harmonization Update, which uses the latest parameterized and high-performing saline algal strain, second-generation carbon capture of point-source waste CO 2 , and high-pressure pipeline transport resolved to specific point-source types, saline water sourcing up to 40,000 mg/L total dissolved solids for source and makeup water salinity, blowdown water treatment and recycle, and brine disposal handling. National-scale algal biomass availability potential was calculated at 152 million tons/yr ash-free dry weight (AFDW) (191 million tons/yr dry weight) at an average biomass

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

IAEA Photonuclear Data Library 2019

Here, photo-induced reaction cross section data are of importance for a variety of current or emerging applications, such as radiation shielding design and radiation transport analyses, calculations of absorbed dose in the human body during radiotherapy, physics and technology of fission reactors (influence of photo-reactions on neutron balance) and fusion reactors (plasma diagnostics and shielding), activation analyses, safeguards and inspection technologies, nuclear waste transmutation, medical isotope production and astrophysical applications. To address these data needs the IAEA Photonuclear Data library was produced in 1999, containing evaluated photo-induced cross sections and neutron spectra for 164 nuclides which were deemed relevant for the applications. Since the release of the IAEA Photonuclear Data Library however, new experimental data as well as new methods to assess the reliability of experimental cross sections have become available. Theoretical models and input parameters used to evaluate photo-induced reactions have improved significantly over the years. In addition, new measurements of partial photoneutron cross sections using mono-energetic photon beams and advanced neutron detection systems have been performed allowing for the validation of the evaluations and assessments of the experimental data. Furthermore, technological advances have led to the construction of new and more powerful gamma-beam facilities, therefore new data needs are emerging. We report our coordinated efforts to address these data needs and present the results of the new up-to-date evaluations included in the new updated IAEA Photonuclear Data Library consisting of 219 nuclides. The new library includes 188 new evaluations produced by the CRP evaluators, and one evaluation taken from the JENDL/PD-2016 library, while 20 evaluations were retained from the previous 1999 IAEA Photonuclear Data Library. In most of the cases, the photon energy goes up to 200 MeV. A total of 55 nuclides are new in this library reflecting the progress in measurements but also the developing data needs. In this paper we discuss the new assessment method and make recommendations to the user community in cases where the experimental data are discrepant and the assessments disagree. In addition, in the absence of experimental data, we present model predictions for photo-induced reaction cross section on nuclides of potential interest to medical radioisotope production.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Visual Impact Assessment of the Energetic Materials Complex Construction Project on Manhattan Project–Era Historic Properties, the TA-06-0037 Concrete Bowl, and the TA-22-0001 Quonset Hut

Concern for potential visual effects to historic Manhattan Project–era properties emerged early in the planning and consultation phase for the upcoming Energetic Materials Complex (EMC) construction project. In initial discussions with project managers and design team members, resource managers became aware of the need to consider potential impacts to the viewsheds of two nearby properties that are eligible for inclusion in the Manhattan Project National Historical Park (MAPR). Resource managers recognized that viewshed characteristics important to the integrity of the Concrete Bowl (Technical Area [TA-]06-0037) and the Quonset Hut (TA-22-0001) conceivably faced the prospect of lasting and irreversible visual impacts. A strategy to gather necessary data soon emerged. The approach presented to the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO) on April 7, 2021, combined gathering baseline information from field visits with a geographic information system (GIS)-supported viewshed analysis. Accordingly, results from the viewshed analysis would help resource managers determine if a more comprehensive visual impact assessment (VIA) would be needed. If necessitated by the outcome of the GIS viewshed analysis, initial consultation with the SHPO specified the production of a VIA that would explore any potential visual adverse impacts to the Concrete Bowl and the Quonset Hut. Cultural resources and GIS specialists with the Laboratory performed a viewshed analysis shortly after consultation with the SHPO. The analysis indicated a high likelihood that at least one of the two Manhattan Project–era properties would experience at least a minimal level of visual impact and that a VIA would be needed. The resulting analysis provides a description of the undertaking, an account of the properties affected along with an evaluation of historical significance, an examination of potential visual impacts, and a determination of effect to the identified historic properties.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas

Abstract Under global warming, dry and hot events have been increasing in recent decades and are projected to increase in the future across global land areas. The impacts of compound dry and hot events may lead to increased stress to the natural and human systems than separate dry or hot events. Thus, quantitative assessments of global land areas affected by these compound events are needed to understand their risks. This study focuses on the variation in global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events for both historical and future periods using observations from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. Based on historical observations and simulations, a substantial increase in the spatial extent of these compound events was detected, especially since the 1980s. Climate model projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario reveal that both global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events will increase to approximately 1.7–1.8 times by the end of the 21st century. Based on different thresholds of compound events, the spatial extent of global land areas during the June–July–August (December–January–February) season will increase by 12.38–17.20% (7.83–11.19%) in 2050–2099 relative to that in 1950–1999, and the spatial extent of global cropland areas will increase by 14.69–19.63% (9.60–14.48%). The increase in areas affected by compound dry and hot events may lead to more losses in different sectors in the future and more efforts are needed to cope with their potential impacts.

Wu, Xinying↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statorless mixed flow turbine for transonic pulsating inflow

Effective harvesting of power from high speed highly transient inflows such as the outflow of rotating detonation combustors (RDCs) is key to achieving their promised cycle efficiency step jump. To increase power density and efficiency simultaneously, a concept that can directly ingest transonic outflow, addressing the choking is needed, i.e. without additional transition elements. A new statorless design was assessed using a comprehensive approach to quantify all contributions to loss generation in transient flows, locally and globally. The turbine rotor was designed under steady flow conditions with a genetic algorithm. The comparison of power and loss generation between steady and unsteady flow results shows that a design methodology under steady-state conditions is suitable to characterize the performance of different designs. Three design families were further assessed under highly transient transonic conditions including traveling shock waves with a relative total pressure amplitude of 149.6% around the mean value and inflow angle variations from -26.5 deg to +51.8 deg. The oblique shock impinging on the pressure side (PS) of the turbine augments the shaft power extraction. When the oblique shock reflects between the pressure side and suction side (SS), its strength diminishes. This paper provides design guidelines on efficient turbine work extraction from the shocks emanating from detonation combustors.

rotating detonation engines↗

DOE OSTI2024

A framework to enhance disaster debris estimation with AI and aerial photogrammetry

This study addresses the critical need to enhance disaster preparedness and response, focusing on hurricane impact assessment and debris estimation. Accurate assessments in this context are critical for post-event search-and-rescue (SAR) operations and resource distribution. Recent computing advancements are revealing the potential of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in collecting data and assisting with post-hurricane reconnaissance. However, the use of AI and UAV photogrammetry for accurate disaster impact analysis remains underexplored. To this end, this study proposes a damage and debris analysis framework harnessing reality capture through aerial imagery and photogrammetry. Within this framework, a region-based neural network is leveraged to detect debris locations in aerial imagery with favorable performance. In a testbed within the Beaumont-Port Arthur region, in Southeast Texas, this study performs 3D reality captures of the built environment. Since the accuracy of the 3D reality capture is of importance in research areas associated with time-sensitive disaster response, we further investigate the optimal 2D aerial imagery overlap ratio required to generate a sufficiently accurate 3D model for disaster impact analysis and debris volume estimation. Results indicate that, in the case of aerial imagery for infrastructure systems, a minimum of 60 % overlap is recommended for damage assessment and debris analysis. In contrast, for flat green areas, a minimum of 50 % overlap is adequate. Overall, for disaster response applications, our study reveals that an overlap ratio between 60 % and 70 % is optimal for achieving a balance between time efficiency and data quality in aerial data collection. Furthermore, these quantitative recommendations are crucial for enabling efficient disaster response efforts. Additionally, our study outcomes will improve disaster impact analysis and facilitating timely and effective response strategies.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ion Clusters Reveal the Sources, Impacts, and Drivers of Freshwater Salinization

Population growth, land use change, climate change, and natural resource extraction are driving the salinization of freshwater resources worldwide. Reversing these trends will require data-centric approaches that identify salt sources, environmental drivers, and ecosystem responses. In this study, we applied principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to identify ion covariance patterns, or “ion clusters,” in Broad Run, an urban stream in the Mid-Atlantic United States. These clusters correspond to distinct hydrologic regimes and reveal specific salinization risks: (1) phosphorus pollution mobilized during summer storms (Cluster 1); (2) elevated concentrations of sulfate and bicarbonate during baseflow (Cluster 2), likely reflecting groundwater discharge; and (3) elevated specific conductance and sodium, chloride, and potassium ion concentrations during snowmelt and rain-on-snow events (Cluster 3), driven by deicer and anti-icer wash-off. These ion fingerprints offer a transferable framework for diagnosing salt sources, assessing ecological risk, and identifying management targets. Our findings underscore the need for next-generation stormwater infrastructure and smart growth policies to protect aquatic life in rapidly urbanizing watersheds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Impact of Clean Grid Transition on Wastewater Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This study examines the spatial and temporal impacts of the U.S. clean energy grid transition on related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the wastewater treatment industry. By analyzing data from 17,156 water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) and state-specific grid decarbonization scenarios, the results project a 60% reduction in Scope 2 emissions by 2050, driven by the national shift to renewable energy. However, regional disparities are prominent, with northeastern and western states achieving the most significant reductions, while the Ohio Valley and Rockies are likely to experience higher emissions due to the reliance on fossil fuels. This study offers the first assessment of clean grid impacts on the WRRFs and highlights the need for targeted, region-specific strategies across different emission scopes. This research provides insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the wastewater sector, emphasizing the critical role of grid decarbonization in achieving GHG reduction goals.

Li, Xiatong↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fraction of Free-Base Nicotine in Simulated Vaping Aerosol Particles Determined by X-ray Spectroscopies

A new generation of electronic cigarettes is exacerbating the youth vaping epidemic by incorporating additives that increase the acidity of generated aerosols, which facilitate uptake of high nicotine levels. We need to better understand the chemical speciation of vaping aerosols to assess the impact of acidification. Here we used X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy to probe the acid-base equilibria of nicotine in hydrated vaping aerosols. Here we show that, unlike the behavior observed in bulk water, nicotine in the core of aqueous particles was partially protonated when the pH of the nebulized solution was 10.4, with a fraction of free-base nicotine (α FB ) of 0.34. Nicotine was further protonated by acidification with equimolar addition of benzoic acid (α FB = 0.17 at pH 6.2). By contrast, the degree of nicotine protonation at the particle surface was significantly lower, with 0.72 < α FB < 0.80 in the same pH range. The presence of propylene glycol and glycerol completely eliminated protonation of nicotine at the surface (α FB = 1) while not affecting significantly its acid-base equilibrium in the particle core. These results provide a better understanding of the role of acidifying additives in vaping aerosols, supporting public health policy interventions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Abstract Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state‐of‐the‐art knowledge in an internally self‐consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain‐specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low‐emissions SSP1‐1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long‐term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dust Storms, Valley Fever, and Public Awareness

We discuss several issues raised by Comrie (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GH000504), which uses a crowdsourced data set to study dust storms and coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever). There is inconsistency in the term “dust storm” used by science communities. The dust data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Events Database are from diverse sources, unsuitable for assessing dust-coccidioidomycosis relationships. Population exposure to dust or Coccidioides needs to consider the frequency, magnitude, and duration of dust events. Given abundant evidence that dust storms are a viable driver to transport pathogens, it is in best public interest to advocate dust storms may put people at risk for contracting Valley fever.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quasi‐Steady State Supersaturation: Do High Values Derived From ESCAPE Represent Real High Supersaturations and the Potential for Condensational Invigoration?

Deep convective clouds were intensively sampled during the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) with coordinated flights of the NRC Convair-580 and SPEC Learjet. A total of 219 updraft core segments were sampled over coastal Texas and Louisiana under diverse meteorological conditions. Median updraft properties included widths of ∼1 km, velocities of 4.8 m s −1 , droplet number concentrations of ∼400 cm −3 , and liquid water contents of 0.9 g m −3 . The limitations of using the quasi-steady state approximation to derive supersaturations were explored. Supersaturation (S QSS ) estimated from in situ observations under a quasi-steady state assumption averaged 0.4% but occasionally exceeded 2%, with values >1% (high supersaturations) identified as statistical outliers. Two case studies illustrated the conditions linked to high supersaturations. In a storm over the Gulf, median core S QSS reached 2.46% in the developing stage compared to 2.17% in the mature stage under similar thermodynamic conditions. In a storm over coastal Louisiana, S QSS peaked near 11% within a 13.7-m s −1 updraft, accompanied by predominantly supercooled liquid droplets at −13°C and exceptionally low diameter concentrations of 0.29 mm cm −3 . Bootstrap analysis of all sampled cores showed that high supersaturations are most probable in cold and mixed-phase regimes with moderate to strong updrafts and are strongly influenced by vertical velocity and droplet number concentrations. In conclusion, while extreme supersaturations (∼10%) were rare, their occurrence underscores the need for targeted multiplatform observations to resolve their spatiotemporal variability and assess their potential role in deep convective invigoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost

Permafrost peatlands store vast amounts of frozen carbon across northern landscapes. When ground ice melts, surface subsidence produces thermokarst landforms that expand wetlands at the edges of permafrost plateaus. Thermokarst represents an accelerating climate feedback, but uncertainties remain about how ground ice, hydrology, and vegetation interact to shape landscape change and carbon fluxes. We extended the process-based model ecosys to simulate thermokarst dynamics in laterally coupled 2D transects at a well-characterized boreal peatland site in Canada’s Northwest Territories. After benchmarking against site observations, we varied ground ice content and hydrologic boundary conditions across ranges typical near the southern permafrost limit. Simulations revealed distinct degradation regimes governed by the elevation difference between the frost table and the external water table. Rates of lateral retreat, the thaw-driven encroachment of wetlands into adjacent plateaus, ranged from 0 to >2 m yr −1 under identical weather forcing, consistent with observations and highlighting the strong role of WT and ground ice. Simulated vegetation dynamics indicate that black spruce mortality cannot be explained by anoxia alone, pointing to additional stressors such as root damage, pathogens, or physical destabilization. Despite large hydrologic shifts, net ecosystem CO 2 exchange remained a slight sink after collapse, while methane (CH 4 ) emissions rose by one to two orders of magnitude. As a result, lateral retreat substantially increases the greenhouse warming potential of permafrost peatlands (1.7 million km 2 in area), with simulated emissions of 0.1–10 Mt CO 2 -eq decade −1 depending on hydrology and retreat rates. These results underscore the need to account for both ground ice and hydrologic dynamics when assessing thermokarst-driven climate feedbacks.

carbon cycling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Paired autoencoders for likelihood-free estimation in inverse problems

Abstract We consider the solution of nonlinear inverse problems where the forward problem is a discretization of a partial differential equation. Such problems are notoriously difficult to solve in practice and require minimizing a combination of a data-fit term and a regularization term. The main computational bottleneck of typical algorithms is the direct estimation of the data misfit. Therefore, likelihood-free approaches have become appealing alternatives. Nonetheless, difficulties in generalization and limitations in accuracy have hindered their broader utility and applicability. In this work, we use a paired autoencoder framework as a likelihood-free estimator (LFE) for inverse problems. We show that the use of such an architecture allows us to construct a solution efficiently and to overcome some known open problems when using LFEs. In particular, our framework can assess the quality of the solution and improve on it if needed. We demonstrate the viability of our approach using examples from full waveform inversion and inverse electromagnetic imaging.

Chung, Matthias (ORCID:0000000178224539)↗