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At least 595 records · Page 33

A modified thermodynamic sea ice model and its application

This paper presents a modified thermodynamic sea ice model based on the Winton’s three-layer model framework. Several improvements focused on the vertical thermodynamics have been made in the model. Results from a series of one-dimensional experiments show that equilibrium ice thickness in our modified model is increased by about 45 cm when compared with the original Winton’s model. Sensitivity tests indicate that all modifications mentioned above contribute to this change of ice thickness, among which the increase of ice layer has the most significant effect followed by the sea ice conductivity parameterization. The modified thermodynamic sea ice model is then coupled into the sea ice component SIS in GFDL MOM4 to exert long-term integration experiments forced by CORE2.0 data. Results indicate that the modified model shows significant improvement in simulating the Arctic sea ice, including an increase in both the sea ice thickness and volume over the whole Arctic region. This confirms the above founding from 1-D simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Integrated Analysis Suite for Fast-Ion Study in KSTAR

Here, an integrated workflow for fast-ion analysis was developed by adapting the One Modeling Framework for Integrated Task (OMFIT) workflow manager to support a standard and unified analysis platform for KSTAR users. The newly established analysis suite offers a graphical user interface–based workflow to enable users to readily access and handle experimental data archived in various data formats and servers. Further, users can analyze the data by importing modules designed for conducting certain tasks, such as profile fitting, equilibrium reconstruction, and postprocessing of tokamak data. The procedures for preparing the inputs for fast-ion simulations are streamlined by a common workflow manager, which enables the parallel processing of various tasks to efficiently analyze large fast-ion datasets. The OMFIT platform comprises a flexible Python-based application that enables users to freely manipulate the Python scripts for applications that are unavailable in the standard workflow. The framework also offers mapping tools to translate the output data into the Integrated Modeling and Analysis Suite format to maintain application compatibility for future ITER burning plasma experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Understanding Uncertainty in Microstructure Evolution and Constitutive Properties in Additive Process Modeling

Coupled process–microstructure–property modeling, and understanding the sources of uncertainty and their propagation toward error in part property prediction, are key steps toward full utilization of additive manufacturing (AM) for predictable quality part development. The OpenFOAM model for process conditions, the ExaCA model for as-solidified grain structure, and the ExaConstit model for constitutive mechanical properties are used as part of the ExaAM modeling framework to examine a few of the various sources of uncertainty in the modeling workflow. In addition to “random” uncertainty (due to random number generation in the orientations and locations of grains present), the heterogeneous nucleation density N 0 and the mean substrate grain spacing S 0 are varied to examine their impact of grain area development as a function of build height in the simulated microstructure. While mean grain area after 1 mm of build is found to be sensitive to N 0 and S 0 , particularly at small N 0 and large S 0 (despite some convergence toward similar values), the resulting grain shapes and overall textures develop in a reasonably similar manner. As a result of these similar textures, ExaConstit simulation using ExaCA representative volume elements (RVEs) from various permutations of N 0 , S 0 , and location within the build resulted in similar yield stress, stress–strain curve shape, and stress triaxiality distributions. It is concluded that for this particular material and scan pattern, 15 layers is sufficient for ExaCA texture and ExaConstit predicted properties to become relatively independent of additional layer simulation, provided that reasonable estimates for N 0 and S 0 are used. However, additional layers of ExaCA will need to be run to obtain mean grain areas independent of build height and baseplate structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

Objectives: Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies. Methods: A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030). Results: All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals. Conclusions: Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Improving climate model coupling through a complete mesh representation: a case study with E3SM (v1) and MOAB (v5.x)

One of the fundamental factors contributing to the spatiotemporal inaccuracy in climate modeling is the mapping of solution field data between different discretizations and numerical grids used in the coupled component models. The typical climate computational workflow involves evaluation and serialization of the remapping weights during the preprocessing step, which is then consumed by the coupled driver infrastructure during simulation to compute field projections. Tools like Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and TempestRemap offer capability to generate conservative remapping weights, while the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) that is utilized in many production climate models exposes functionality to make use of the operators to solve the coupled problem. However, such multistep processes present several hurdles in terms of the scientific workflow and impede research productivity. In order to overcome these limitations, we present a fully integrated infrastructure based on the Mesh Oriented datABase (MOAB) library, which allows for a complete description of the numerical grids and solution data used in each submodel. Through a scalable advancing-front intersection algorithm, the supermesh of the source and target grids are computed, which is then used to assemble the high-order, conservative, and monotonicity-preserving remapping weights between discretization specifications. The Fortran-compatible interfaces in MOAB are utilized to directly link the submodels in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to enable online remapping strategies in order to simplify the coupled workflow process. We demonstrate the superior computational efficiency of the remapping algorithms in comparison with other state-of-the-science tools and present strong scaling results on large-scale machines for computing remapping weights between the spectral element atmosphere and finite volume discretizations on the polygonal ocean grids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Multi-scale Modeling System: Developments, Applications and Critical Issues

A multi-scale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces the conventional cloud parameterizations with a cloud-resolving model (CRM) in each grid column of a GCM, constitutes a new and promising approach. The MMF can provide for global coverage and two-way interactions between the CRMs and their parent GCM. The GCM allows global coverage and the CRM allows explicit simulation of cloud processes and their interactions with radiation and surface processes. A new MMF has been developed that is based the Goddard finite volume GCM (fvGCM) and the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. This Goddard MMF produces many features that are similar to another MMF that was developed at Colorado State University (CSU), such as an improved .surface precipitation pattern, better cloudiness, improved diurnal variability over both oceans and continents, and a stronger, propagating Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) compared to their parent GCMs using conventional cloud parameterizations. Both MMFs also produce a precipitation bias in the western Pacific during Northern Hemisphere summer. However, there are also notable differences between two MMFs. For example, the CSU MMF simulates less rainfall over land than its parent GCM. This is why the CSU MMF simulated less overall global rainfall than its parent GCM. The Goddard MMF overestimates global rainfall because of its oceanic component. Some critical issues associated with the Goddard MMF are presented in this paper.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The Connected Isotopic Water Cycle in the Community Earth System Model Version 1

Because of the pervasive role of water in the Earth system, the relative abundances of stable isotopologues of water are valuable for understanding atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric processes, and for interpreting paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. Isotopologues are transported by both largescale and turbulent flows, and the ratio of heavy to light isotopologues changes due to fractionation that can accompany condensation and evaporation processes. Correctly predicting the isotopic distributions requires resolving the relationships between largescale ocean and atmospheric circulation and smallerscale hydrological processes, which can be accomplished within a coupled climate modeling framework. Here we present the water isotopeenabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (iCESM1), which simulates global variations in water isotopic ratios in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. In a transient Last Millennium simulation covering the 850-2005 period, iCESM1 correctly captures the latetwentiethcentury structure of δ(exp 18)O and δD over the global oceans, with more limited accuracy over land. The relationship between salinity and seawater δ(exp 18)O is also well represented over the observational period, including interbasin variations. We illustrate the utility of coupled, isotopeenabled simulations using both Last Millennium simulations and freshwater hosing experiments with iCESM1. Closing the isotopic mass balance between all components of the coupled model provides new confidence in the underlying depiction of the water cycle in CESM, while also highlighting areas where the underlying hydrologic balance can be improved. The iCESM1 is poised to be a vital community resource for ongoing model development with both modern and paleoclimate applications.

Brady, E.↗

Effect of Boundary Conditions on Process-Induced Stresses in a Plain Weave Unit Cell

Woven polymer matrix composites (PMCs) are leveraged in aerospace applications for their desirable specific properties, yet they are vulnerable to high residual stresses during manufacturing and their complex geometry makes experimental results difficult to observe. Process modeling is needed to characterize the effects of the curing and predict end stress states. Finite element software can be used to model woven architectures, however accurate representation of processing conditions remains a challenge when it comes to selecting boundary conditions. The effect of BCs on process-induced stress within woven PMCs is studied. The commercial Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software Abaqus is coupled with user-written subroutines in a process modeling framework. A two-dimensionally (2D) woven PMC repeating unit cell (RUC) is modeled with TexGen and Abaqus. Virtual curing is imposed on the bulk matrix. The BC study is conducted with Free, Periodic, Flat, and Flat-Free configurations. Results show that the end stress state is sensitive to the boundary condition assumptions. Flat BC results show great agreement with Periodic BCs. Residual stress results from process modeling are then compared with a linear-elastic thermal cooldown analysis in Abaqus. Cooldown results indicate an overestimation in matrix stresses compared with process modeling.

micromechanics↗

Evaluating Approaches Relating Ecosystem Productivity with Desis Spectral Information

Data from the DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS), mounted on the International Space Station (ISS), were used to develop and test algorithms for remotely retrieving ecosystem productivity. Twenty DESIS images were used from three widely separated forested study sites representing deciduous and conifer forests. Gross primary production (GPP) values from eddy covariance flux towers at the sites were matched with DESIS spectral reflectances collected on the same days. Multiple algorithms were successful relating spectral reflectance with GPP, including: spectral vegetation indices (SVI) sensitive to chlorophyll content, SVI used in a photosynthetic light-use efficiency model framework, spectral shape characteristics through spectral derivatives and absorption feature analysis, and statistical models leading to multiband hyperspectral indices from partial least squares regression. Successful algorithms were able to achieve R2 better than 0.7 using a diverse set of observations combining data from different sites from multiple years and at multiple times during the year. The demonstrated robustness of the algorithms provides some confidence in using DESIS imagery to map spatial patterns of GPP.

K F Huemmrich↗

Evaluating Approaches Relating Ecosystem Productivity with DESIS Spectral Information

Data from the DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS), mounted on the International Space Station (ISS), were used to develop and test algorithms for remotely retrieving ecosystem productivity. Twenty DESIS images were used from three widely separated forested study sites representing deciduous and conifer forests. Gross primary production (GPP) values from eddy covariance flux towers at the sites were matched with DESIS spectral reflectances collected on the same days. Multiple algorithms were successful relating spectral reflectance with GPP, including: spectral vegetation indices (SVI) sensitive to chlorophyll content, SVI used in a photosynthetic light-use efficiency model framework, spectral shape characteristics through spectral derivatives and absorption feature analysis, and statistical models leading to multiband hyperspectral indices from partial least squares regression. Successful algorithms were able to achieve R2 better than 0.7 using a diverse set of observations combining data from different sites from multiple years and at multiple times during the year. The demonstrated robustness of the algorithms provides some confidence in using DESIS imagery to map spatial patterns of GPP.

Gross Primary Productivity (GPP)↗

A constitutive model for elastomers tailored by ionic bonds and entanglements

Over the past decade or two, the concept has emerged of using multiple types of weak interactions simultaneously to enhance the mechanical properties of elastomers. These weak interactions include physical entanglements, hydrogen bonds, metal-coordination bonds, dynamic covalent bonds, and ionic bonds. The combination of entanglements and ionic bonding has been minimally explored and is particularly exciting because of the broad application space for polyelectrolytes. In this work, a constitutive model framework is developed to describe the response of elastomers with both ionic bonds and entanglements. Here we formulate a micromechanical model that couples together chain stretching, ionic bond slipping, and entanglement evolution. The ionic bonds provide toughness by enabling plastic deformation in comparison to covalently crosslinked material and add strength compared to a linear polymer. Evolution of the entanglement density is taken as a key mechanism that can govern stiffness, toughness, and self-recovery in elastomers. The model is used to match bulk polyelectrolytes with different fractions of ionic components under a variety of loading histories. The variations in material parameters are then used to help understand the relative importance of different governing mechanisms in the bulk polymers. We show that the theoretical framework can explain our experimental uniaxial tensile experimental results for polyelectrolytes. This model can help to design better material with high stiffness and toughness. We expect that our model can be extended to explain the mechanical behavior of other polyelectrolytes and other soft materials with a wide range of dynamic bonds.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Variational data augmentation for a learning-based granular predictive model of power outages

As the trend in climate change continues, extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency and severity and pose a significant threat to the electric power infrastructure. Regardless of the efforts a utility puts towards hardening the grid, storm-induced damage to the utility assets such as cables and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are particularly vulnerable to such events is unavoidable. Access to a highly granular, in space and time, outage forecasting tool with long lead times (i.e., days ahead) will enhance the efficiency of service restoration efforts. Here, in this study, we propose to develop and implement a multi-model framework as an operational tool based on a granular and multi-day outage forecasting model using operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts and detailed component outage information. An innovative two-layered recurrent neural network, i.e., a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-based variational autoencoder (VAE) framework and a sliding window are used to address the uneven distribution of different types of weather events and make better use of the time-series data. Case studies are performed to demonstrate the performance of the new framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanistic study of pH effect on organic solvent nanofiltration using carboxylated covalent organic framework as a modeling and experimental platform

Covalent organic framework (COF) membranes for organic solvent nanofiltration (OSN) have attracted growing interest due to their high stability, well-defined pore size, and controllable pore functionality. In aqueous nanofiltration processes, solution pH has a significant effect on membrane permeability, selectivity, and fouling. However, our understanding of pH effects on OSN processes is still limited. In this work, we present experimental and reactive force field molecular dynamics (ReaxFF MD) simulation results on the effect of pH on OSN using a well-characterized carboxylated COF (C-COF) membrane. Filtration experimental and modeling results both demonstrate that pH changes can affect solvent permeance and solute rejection dramatically. Specifically, methanol permeance decreases with the increase of NaOH and HCl concentration, respectively. When Alcian Blue dye was used as the solute in methanol, the selectivity increased from 23% to 98% when changing the feed pH from 2.2 to 10.1, respectively. While ReaxFF MD results show that C-COF solvated pore size is only marginally affected by the pH of solution, methanol diffusion is affected by the size of methanol-solvated Na + and Cl - ions, which increase with increasing Na + and Cl - concentrations. Solution pH change also affected solute solvation layer thicknesses and C-COF pore charges, contributing to the significant AB dye selectivity increase with pH increase. To summarize, we have shown that dramatic changes in C-COF selectivity are not anomalous in OSN, but are instead controllable by varying feed solution pH to modify solvated solute radii and surface charge.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗

Improving energy efficiency while reducing anthropogenic heat from buildings: how retrofits influence the building stock and urban microclimate in Los Angeles

Anthropogenic heat (AH) from buildings contributes to urban overheating, especially during heat waves, yet building retrofit studies usually evaluate energy savings without assessing impacts on AH. This study quantifies how common building retrofit measures affect both building energy use and AH emissions across the City of Los Angeles. Using a bottom-up urban building energy modeling framework coupled with high-resolution local weather from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Building Effect Parameterization (WRF-BEP), we evaluate eleven retrofit measures and two multi-measure retrofit packages. HVAC and LED lighting retrofits provide the largest city-wide annual site energy savings, while roof coating is most effective for reducing AH. A package optimized for energy savings reduces summer site energy use by about 32% (2.3 TWh), while a package incorporating AH-focused measures reduces the total AH by over 50% (137 PJ) with minimal difference in energy savings. The AH-aware package produces substantially greater urban cooling, reducing mean near-surface air temperature by up to 0.62 ℃ and peak temperature by up to 3.79 ℃. These results show that retrofit strategies selected only for energy savings may overlook major opportunities for urban heat mitigation. The study provides a framework for integrating AH into building retrofit planning and urban heat resilience policy.

Anthropogenic heat↗

Data-constrained Solar Modeling with GX Simulator

To facilitate the study of solarflares and active regions, we have created a modeling framework, the freelydistributed GX Simulator IDL package, that combines 3D magnetic and plasma structures with thermal andnonthermal models of the chromosphere, transition region, and corona. Its object-based modular architecture,which runs on Windows, Mac, and Unix/Linux platforms, offers the ability to either import 3D density andtemperature distribution models, or to assign numerically defined coronal or chromospheric temperatures anddensities, or their distributions, to each individual voxel. GX Simulator can apply parametric heating modelsinvolving average properties of the magneticfield lines crossing a given voxel, as well as compute and investigatethe spatial and spectral properties of radio,(sub)millimeter, EUV, and X-ray emissions calculated from the model,and quantitatively compare them with observations. The package includes a fully automatic model productionpipeline that, based on minimal users input, downloads the required SDO/HMI vector magneticfield data,performs potential or nonlinear force-freefield extrapolations, populates the magneticfield skeleton withparameterized heated plasma coronal models that assume either steady-state or impulsive plasma heating, andgenerates non-LTE density and temperature distribution models of the chromosphere that are constrained byphotospheric measurements. The standardized models produced by this pipeline may be further customizedthrough specialized IDL scripts, or a set of interactive tools provided by the graphical user interface. Here, wedescribe the GX Simulator framework and its applications.

Solar active regions↗

Scaling considerations for supercritical carbon dioxide cycles including turbomachinery loss models

A modeling framework for the supercritical carbon dioxide recompressed closed Brayton cycle was developed. Unlike typical models, this effort incorporated generalized empirical turbomachinery loss models. Aerodynamic, windage, and leakage losses were considered in order to address the limitations of conventional constant-efficiency turbomachinery assumptions without relying on machine-specific or computationally expensive simulations. The model enables system-level exploration of optimal cycle design across a range of power scales, including smaller scales that are relevant to microreactors and extraterrestrial power applications. Parametric studies and multi-objective optimizations are used to evaluate the trade-offs between thermal efficiency and system compactness based on an analytical heat exchanger scaling model, yielding Pareto-optimal fronts across a range of operating pressures. Results reveal that at small power scales, the Pareto-optimal compressor inlet pressure becomes subcritical due to the increasing influence of density-dependent turbomachinery losses. Here, the relative contributions of each loss mechanism are quantified, and design recommendations are provided for key parameters such as recompression split ratio and generator cavity pressure across varying power scales.

Multi-objective optimization↗

Integrated top-down process and voxel-based microstructure modeling for Ti-6Al-4V in laser wire direct energy deposition process

Laser-wire metal additive manufacturing (AM) is one of the ideal direct energy deposition (DED) processes for creating large-scale parts with a medium level of complexity. However, the DED process involves complex thermal signatures and wide length scales making the fabrication of realistic AM components and part qualification often reliant on experimental trial-and-error optimization. While experimental measurements over the full volume of a part are valuable and necessary, measuring the entire area of a part is significantly laborious and practically infeasible, particularly for large parts in terms of cost and rapid qualification. Therefore, in this work, we developed an effective thermal and microstructure modeling framework based on the Johnson–Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK) and Koistinen & Marburger (KM) models through a top-down approach that considers plate distortion-affected thermal profiles. A voxel-by-voxel simulation method is used to predict individual phase fractions of Ti-6Al-4 V. The predicted results were validated through detailed metallurgical measurements. A combined voxel-by-voxel approach with a sparse data reconstruction technique produced a near-perfect reconstruction of the original data. This approach anticipates a significant reduction in data points and computation time and resources. Lastly, we conclude with potential extensions of this work to other modeling efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗