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At least 595 records · Page 33

Application of the immobilized low-activity waste glass corrosion model to the static dissolution of 24 statistically-designed alkali-borosilicate waste glasses

Glass corrosion models that capture the complex mechanisms of the glass-water reaction enable the prediction of nuclear waste glass durability in disposal scenarios. Parameterization of such models is challenging because of the need to capture changes in corrosion behavior with time, reaction conditions, and glass composition. In this report we describe and employ the immobilized low activity waste (ILAW) glass corrosion model (IGCM) in geochemical simulations of static dissolution tests, at two temperatures (40 °C and 90 °C), for a matrix of 24 enhanced low activity waste (eLAW) glasses statistically designed to cover a processable composition space defined by 8 major glass components (Al 2 O 3 , B 2 O 3 , CaO, Na 2 O, SiO 2 , SnO 2 , ZrO 2 , and Others as defined in the text). The IGCM includes a first-order chemical affinity term and an ion-exchange term that represents the net exchange of Na+ ions in the pristine glass with protons in aqueous solution. Constant, time-dependent, and time- and pH-dependent functional forms of the ion-exchange term are evaluated to reproduce the change in corrosion behavior with time in saturated, static dissolution tests. The agreement with measured aqueous concentrations of the main glass components (B, Na, and Si) improved significantly upon addition of a time-dependent term, which therefore constitutes a simple representation of the glass-water reaction progress. Due to the limited changes in pH in the static dissolution tests, past a short initial period of rapid increase, addition of a pH dependent term did not appreciably improve the fits, indicating that comprehensive model parameterization requires more than one type of glass corrosion test to capture a wide range of solution chemistries. IGCM parameters were found to be dependent on glass composition, and the parameter sets generated in this work will enable the development of composition–parameter correlation models that offer the promise of predicting IGCM parameters, and thus glass corrosion behavior, solely based on glass composition.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Revisiting particle dry deposition and its role in radiative effect estimates

Wet and dry deposition remove aerosols from the atmosphere, and these processes control aerosol lifetime and thus impact climate and air quality. Dry deposition is a significant source of aerosol uncertainty in global chemical transport and climate models. Dry deposition parameterizations in most global models were developed when few particle deposition measurements were available. However, new measurement techniques have enabled more size-resolved particle flux observations. We combined literature measurements with data that we collected over a grassland in Oklahoma and a pine forest in Colorado to develop a dry deposition parameterization. We find that relative to observations, previous parameterizations overestimated deposition of the accumulation and Aitken mode particles, and underestimated in the coarse mode. These systematic differences in observed and modeled accumulation mode particle deposition velocities are as large as an order of magnitude over terrestrial ecosystems. As accumulation mode particles form most of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that influence the indirect radiative effect, this model-measurement discrepancy in dry deposition alters modeled CCN and radiative forcing. We present a revised observationally driven parameterization for regional and global aerosol models. Using this revised dry deposition scheme in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem chemical transport model, we find that global surface accumulation-mode number concentrations increase by 62% and enhance the global combined anthropogenic and natural aerosol indirect effect by −0.63 W m −2 . Our observationally constrained approach should reduce the uncertainty of particle dry deposition in global chemical transport models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative study of two Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains with kinetic models at genome-scale

The parameterization of kinetic models requires measurement of fluxes and/or metabolite levels for a base strain and a few genetic perturbations thereof. Unlike stoichiometric models that are mostly invariant to the specific strain, it remains unclear whether kinetic models constructed for different strains of the same species have similar or significantly different kinetic parameters. This important question underpins the applicability range and prediction limits of kinetic reconstructions. To this end, herein we parameterize two separate large-scale kinetic models using K-FIT with genome-wide coverage corresponding to two distinct strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae: CEN.PK 113-7D strain (model k-sacce306-CENPK), and growth-deficient BY4741 (isogenic to S288c; model k-sacce306-BY4741). The metabolic network for each model contains 306 reactions, 230 metabolites, and 119 substrate-level regulatory interactions. The two models (for CEN.PK and BY4741) recapitulate, within one standard deviation, 77% and 75% of the fitted dataset fluxes, respectively, determined by 13 C metabolic flux analysis for wild-type and eight single-gene knockout mutants of each strain. Strain-specific kinetic parameterization results indicate that key enzymes in the TCA cycle, glycolysis, and arginine and proline metabolism drive the metabolic differences between these two strains of S. cerevisiae. Our results suggest that although kinetic models cannot be readily used across strains as stoichiometric models, they can capture species-specific information through the kinetic parameterization process.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Optimization and analysis of large chemical kinetic mechanisms using the solution mapping method - Combustion of methane

A method of systematic optimization, solution mapping, as applied to a large-scale dynamic model is presented. The basis of the technique is parameterization of model responses in terms of model parameters by simple algebraic expressions. These expressions are obtained by computer experiments arranged in a factorial design. The developed parameterized responses are then used in a joint multiparameter multidata-set optimization. A brief review of the mathematical background of the technique is given. The concept of active parameters is discussed. The technique is applied to determine an optimum set of parameters for a methane combustion mechanism. Five independent responses - comprising ignition delay times, pre-ignition methyl radical concentration profiles, and laminar premixed flame velocities - were optimized with respect to thirteen reaction rate parameters. The numerical predictions of the optimized model are compared to those computed with several recent literature mechanisms. The utility of the solution mapping technique in situations where the optimum is not unique is also demonstrated.

Frenklach, Michael↗

Data-driven causal model discovery and personalized prediction in Alzheimer's disease

Abstract With the explosive growth of biomarker data in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) clinical trials, numerous mathematical models have been developed to characterize disease-relevant biomarker trajectories over time. While some of these models are purely empiric, others are causal, built upon various hypotheses of AD pathophysiology, a complex and incompletely understood area of research. One of the most challenging problems in computational causal modeling is using a purely data-driven approach to derive the model’s parameters and the mathematical model itself, without any prior hypothesis bias. In this paper, we develop an innovative data-driven modeling approach to build and parameterize a causal model to characterize the trajectories of AD biomarkers. This approach integrates causal model learning, population parameterization, parameter sensitivity analysis, and personalized prediction. By applying this integrated approach to a large multicenter database of AD biomarkers, the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, several causal models for different AD stages are revealed. In addition, personalized models for each subject are calibrated and provide accurate predictions of future cognitive status.

Zheng, Haoyang (ORCID:0000000168358242)↗

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test↗

Fitting local, low-dimensional parameterizations of optical turbulence modeled from optimal transport velocity vectors

This work exploits a connection between optimal transport theory and the physics of image propagation to yield a locally low-dimensional model of turbulence-corrupted imagery. Optimal transport produces an invertible, pixel-wise linear trajectories to approximate the globally nonlinear turbulence between a clean and turbulence corrupted image pair. We use the low-dimensional model to fit subsets of the optimal transport vector fields and stitch the local models into a surrogate for the global map to be used for image cleaning. Experiments are performed on laboratory generated data of beam propagation using different values of the Fried parameter (a scale measuring turbulence coherence) as well as a toy data set. The results suggest this is a fruitful direction, and first step, towards using multiple realizations of turbulence corrupted images to learn a blind surrogate for the optimal transport vector field for image cleaning.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Realistic Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in Global Convection-Permitting Models by Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems

Accurately representing the precipitation diurnal cycle has long been a challenge for global climate models (GCMs). Here we evaluate the precipitation diurnal cycle in the DYAMOND global convection-permitting models (CPMs) and CMIP6 HighResMIP models. Comparison of the high- (25–50 km) and low-resolution (100–250 km) models with parameterized convection in HighResMIP shows that simply increasing model resolution does not noticeably improve the precipitation diurnal cycle. In contrast, CPMs can better capture the observed amplitude and timing of precipitation diurnal cycle. However, the simulated spatial variation of timing in CPMs is smaller than observed, leading to an exaggeration of the spatially averaged diurnal amplitude. The better-simulated precipitation diurnal cycle in the CPMs is tied to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which contribute about half of the total precipitation. The observed life cycle of MCSs, including initiation and mature stages, is well captured in the CPMs, leading to a more realistic precipitation diurnal cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learned Hückel Theory: Interfacing Physics and Deep Neural Networks

The Hückel Hamiltonian is an incredibly simple tight-binding model known for its ability to capture qualitative physics phenomena arising from electron interactions in molecules and materials. Part of its simplicity arises from using only two types of empirically fit physics-motivated parameters: the first describes the orbital energies on each atom and the second describes electronic interactions and bonding between atoms. By replacing these empirical parameters with machine-learned dynamic values, we vastly increase the accuracy of the extended Hückel model. The dynamic values are generated with a deep neural network, which is trained to reproduce orbital energies and densities derived from density functional theory. The resulting model retains interpretability, while the deep neural network parameterization is smooth and accurate and reproduces insightful features of the original empirical parameterization. Altogether, this work shows the promise of utilizing machine learning to formulate simple, accurate, and dynamically parameterized physics models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Enhancing the accuracy of density functional tight binding models through ChIMES many-body interaction potentials

Semi-empirical quantum models such as Density Functional Tight Binding (DFTB) are attractive methods for obtaining quantum simulation data at longer time and length scales than possible with standard approaches. However, application of these models can require lengthy effort due to the lack of a systematic approach for their development. In this work, we discuss the use of the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) to create rapidly parameterized DFTB models, which exhibit strong transferability due to the inclusion of many-body interactions that might otherwise be inaccurate. We apply our modeling approach to silicon polymorphs and review previous work on titanium hydride. We also review the creation of a general purpose DFTB/ChIMES model for organic molecules and compounds that approaches hybrid functional and coupled cluster accuracy with two orders of magnitude fewer parameters than similar neural network approaches. In all cases, DFTB/ChIMES yields similar accuracy to the underlying quantum method with orders of magnitude improvement in computational cost. In conclusion, our developments provide a way to create computationally efficient and highly accurate simulations over varying extreme thermodynamic conditions, where physical and chemical properties can be difficult to interrogate directly, and there is historically a significant reliance on theoretical approaches for interpretation and validation of experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mesoscale Particle-Based Model of Electrophoresis

Here, we develop and evaluate a semi-empirical particle-based model of electrophoresis using extensive mesoscale simulations. We parameterize the model using only measurable quantities from a broad set of colloidal suspensions with properties that span the experimentally relevant regime. With sufficient sampling, simulated diffusivities and electrophoretic velocities match predictions of the ubiquitous Stokes-Einstein and Henry equations, respectively. This agreement holds for non-polar and aqueous solvents or ionic liquid colloidal suspensions under a wide range of applied electric fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

“Using Statistical Comparisons between SPartICus Cirrus Microphysical Measurements, Detailed Cloud Models, and GCM Cloud Parameterizations to Understand Physical Processes Controlling Cirrus Properties and to Improve the Cloud Parameterizations”

The dual objectives of this project were improving our basic understanding of processes that control cirrus microphysical properties and improvement of the representation of these processes in the parameterizations. A major effort in the proposed research was to integrate, calibrate, and better understand the uncertainties in all of these measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parameterization of a Cookoff Model for LX-07

A thermal decomposition model for PBX 9501 (95% HMX, 2.5% Estane® binder, 2.5% BDNPA/F nitro-plasticizer) was implemented by Dickson, et. al. The objective in this study is to estimate parameters associated with this kinetics model so it can be applied to carry out thermal ignition predictions for LX-07 (90% HMX, 10% Viton binder). LX-07 thermal ignition experiments have been carried out using the “Sandia Instrumented Thermal Ignition Apparatus”, SITI. The SITI design consists of solid cylinders (1” diameter × 1” height) of high explosive (HE) confined by a cylindrical aluminum case. An electric heater is wrapped around the outer surface of the case. This heater produces a temperature heating ramp on the outer surface of the case. Internal thermocouples measure the HE temperature rise from the center to locations close to the HE-aluminum interface. The energetic material is heated until thermal ignition occurs. A two–dimensional axisymmetric heat conduction finite element model is used to simulate these experiments. The HE thermal decomposition kinetics is coupled to a heat conduction model trough the definition of an energy source term. The parameters used to define the HE thermal decomposition model are optimized to obtain a good agreement with the experimental time to thermal ignition and temperatures. Also, heat capacity and thermal conductivity of the LX-07 mixture were estimated using temperatures measured at the center of the HE before the solid to solid HMX phase transition occurred.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A parameterized ray-tracing model for evaluation of hemispherical lensing of a uniform, telecentric object aperture -- performance improvement estimates for segmented scintillators with miniature lens arrays

A parametric model describing the collimation of radiation from a uniform circular aperture by a hemispherical lens of the same radius has been developed for rapid estimation of the potential benefit of miniature dielectric lens arrays in lens-coupled gamma ray cameras (GRCs) with segmented scintillators. A simplified ray-tracing approach is adopted that makes use of small angle approximations relevant to GRCs used in nuclear science at Los Alamos National Laboratory and elsewhere. Application of this analysis technique in a first-pass design optimization process results in the optimistic estimate that miniature lenses fabricated from typical optical quality glass might boost optical coupling by as much as a factor of 4 (6 dB gain). However, this is not likely to be economically attractive compared to other techniques, such as reduction of the GRC lens f-number.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Biological Mechanisms May Contribute to Soil Carbon Saturation Patterns: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of a TES-SFA publication “Biological Mechanisms May Contribute to Soil Carbon Saturation Patterns” (Craig et al., 2021). We ran and evaluated a multi-assumption soil organic carbon (SOC) model to investigate whether alternative assumptions regarding constraints on soil microbial biomass could lead to soil carbon saturation patterns. We developed this model in the Multi-Assumption Architecture and Testbed (MAAT, https://github.com/walkeranthonyp/MAAT, tag: v1.2.1_Craig2021; Walker et al. 2018). Using MAAT, we embedded three alternative hypotheses in a microbially explicit three-pool SOC model: 1) the efficiency of mineral-associated SOC formation decreases as mineral-associated SOC approaches a maximum value (“Mineral saturation”), 2) the microbial biomass turnover rate increases with increasing microbial biomass (“Density-dependent turnover”), and 3) community carbon use efficiency decreases as microbial biomass increases toward an upper limit (“Density-dependent growth”). We ran a factorial combination of these hypotheses resulting in eight models for three different classes of model (linear decay, Michaelis-Menten decay, or reverse Michaelis-Menten decay), resulting in 24 models, 12 of which are presented or discussed in the related publication. Models were parameterized using values from previous studies with similar models (Wang et al. 2013, Wieder et al. 2014, Li et al. 2014, Georgiou et al. 2017, Hassink and Whitmore 1997) and ran to an approximate steady state (200 years) at six (6) different C input rates corresponding to 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 7, and 10 times the default input value. Further model details are available in the related publication. This archive contains output from three MAAT simulations, and scripts to run these simulations and process and plot the data. Simulations are labeled “lin”, “MM_highKm”, and “RMM_highKm” reflecting factorial runs for linear, Michealis-Menten, and reverse Michaelis-Menten models, respectively. This archive contains: • 3 R scripts prepended with “init_MAAT_” to initialize runs (1 for each simulation), • 1 csv file containing years over which to run simulations (“met_year.csv”), • 1 bash script (.bs) to run MAAT, • 6 XML files that are output from MAAT describing a run (2 for each simulation), • 3 model output csv files prepended by “out_” (1 for each simulation), and • 1 analysis R script for reproducing figures 3 and 4 in Craig et al. 2021. See included user guide (Craig_2021_modeling_archive_20210315.pdf) for file organization details.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical Note: An efficient method for accelerating the spin-up process for process-based biogeochemistry models

To better understand the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle and their feedbacks to the global climate system,process-based biogeochemistry models need to be improved with respect tomodel parameterization and model structure. To achieve these improvements,the spin-up time for those differential equation-based models needs to be shortened. Here, an algorithm for a fast spin-up was developed by finding the exact solution of a linearized system representing the cyclo-stationary state of a model and implemented in a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). With the new spin-up algorithm, we showed that the model reacheda steady state in less than 10 years of computing time, while the original method requires more than 200 years on average of model run. For the test sites with five different plant functional types, the new method saves over 90 % of the original spin-up time in site-level simulations. In North American simulations, average spin-up time savings for all grid cells is 85 % for either the daily or monthly version of TEM. Thus, the developed spin-up method shall be used for future quantification of carbon dynamics at fine spatial and temporal scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A simple theoretical model for calculating and parameterizing the ionospheric photoelectron flux

A method for calculating the ionospheric photoelectron flux is developed which uses the concept of average electron energy loss to simplify the calculation of the degraded electron spectrum. This method requires only a knowledge of the total inelastic electron impact cross sections and can be used for the calculation of all secondary ion and excited state production rates. The simple calculation reduces the computing time by a factor of 10 and considerably reduces storage requirements. It is found that the ionospheric photoelectron flux in the local equilibrium region is directly proportional to the attenuated solar EUV flux, which is a function only of the total neutral column density, and is independent of the neutral density composition. Thus, it is shown that electron impact cross section can be chosen so that this method may also be used to parameterize the measured ionospheric photoelectron fluxes.

Richards, P. G.↗