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585 records · Page 33

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices

Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet’s climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate models is anticipated to become available with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), the need to develop efficient and robust methods to evaluate models is paramount. Observations are an integral part of model evaluation, providing a means to quantify and understand the degree to which climate models can faithfully reproduce Earth system processes. Such analysis is critical for constraining climate projections, identifying areas of focus for model development, and assisting analysts in deciphering the utility of models for specific applications. Observations of Earth system come from a diversity of sources, span different space–time domains, and are produced by different communities, and each dataset features different data structures and formats, metadata standards, and its own unique uncertainties. Uncertainties in an observational dataset may stem from gaps in temporal and spatial coverage, instrumentation errors, or assumptions in retrieval and processing methods. How then does one ensure that observational data are ready for use and utilized in the most appropriate way for robust, rapid, and routine climate model evaluation? The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team with input from the broader climate modeling, model evaluation, and observational data communities present a vision and considerations for best practices toward the optimal and appropriate use of observational data to support next-generation climate model evaluation.

Climate models↗

Specifying Calibration of Environmental Sensors

The emergence of the Internet of Things is resulting in an increased ability of devices and systems to share data and is generating increasing interest in integrating sensors into a variety of devices deployed in the built environment. The value of such data is a function of how the data can be used. Data-producing devices and systems that enable valuable use-cases in turn can be seen as more valuable. Lighting systems are particularly interesting platforms for integrated sensors. Both indoor and outdoor lighting devices are becoming more connected, and their location is often ideally suited for hosting environmental sensors that can characterize the properties of indoor or outdoor spaces in ways that support a wide variety of use cases, from improving air quality to supporting fault diagnostics and prediction. The value of environmental-sensor-driven use-cases and the lighting systems that house them is dependent to some degree on sensor accuracy. Environmental sensors utilize a wide variety of sensing techniques or technologies and have varying accuracy. More-accurate, laboratory-grade products or reference standards are often used to characterize, refine, calibrate, adjust, and monitor devices that are deployed, or are intended to be deployed, in physical spaces of interest. Sensors or reference standards need to be calibrated periodically to ensure that their use yields accurate measurements. Calibration needs, however, vary in sophistication, based on user and use-case requirements. This paper provides guidance for evaluating the performance of environmental sensors so as to ensure that they meet user or use-case needs. It describes best practices that have been developed for a) calibrating sensors to ensure some known level of accuracy, and b) determining whether calibration-laboratory accreditation meets user or use-case needs. Excerpts from laboratory scopes of accreditation are shared to reveal the diversity of terminology and format among them. In an effort to aid those who currently have sensors calibrated or who have new or changing needs for sensor calibration, rationale is provided for why a specification might be used to request calibration services that meet specific needs. Commercially available calibration-service providers that are accredited for environmental-sensor calibration are compared and contrasted, and a specification template that might be used for requesting this calibration is presented. The specification template should be tailored to meet each user’s needs. To illustrate, an example set of environmental-sensor test conditions (reflecting the planned usage of the device to be calibrated) is used to develop a customized calibration specification, and commercially available service providers are assessed in terms of their qualifications for calibration to that particular implementation of the specification template.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Final Report DE-FE0031785 Mohsen Ahmadian, Ph.D. Demonstration of Proof of Concept of a Multiphysics Approach for Real-Time Remote Monitoring of Dynamic Changes in Pressure and Salinity in Hydraulically Fractured Networks

Hydraulic fracturing has evolved into a multistep process with varying flow rates, carrier fluids (e.g., gel or slickwater), proppant loadings, and proppant grain sizes. As a result, primary recovery from a hydraulically fractured tight-oil reservoir is often a tiny fraction of the original oil in place, ranging between 5 and 10%. As stated in the FOA1990, “part of this problem is due to the inability of current well completion processes to effectively stimulate the entire reservoir volume in contact with the wellbore. Innovative technologies are needed that can help improve the effectiveness of reservoir completion methods, maximize stimulated reservoir volumes, and optimize recovery over the entire producing life span of a well”. We first need to enhance the current fracture diagnostic techniques to improve a well-completion design. However, detecting and delineating a subsurface hydraulic fracture is extremely difficult because the induced fracture network is only fractionally propped, and these propped fractures are generally very thin. Microseismic and tiltmeter monitoring techniques can provide information on the fracture extent but provide little or no information on the movement and final distribution of proppant or production fluids. On the other hand, electromagnetic (EM) imaging has shown the capability to monitor proppant distribution throughout the fracture area, especially in the presence of Electrically Active Proppants (EAPs). A previous EM survey of hydraulic fracturing at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site (DFPS) and subsequent EM code developments demonstrated this survey as a robust technique to remotely interrogate the extent of the EAP-filled hydraulic fracture during its propagation. The objectives of the project were threefold: (1) to capitalize on the material properties of an EAP to demonstrate remote monitoring of relative changes in pressure, pressure, and flow that are commonly encountered during production from a hydraulically fractured reservoir; (2) to evaluate EM imaging tools, to achieve Objective 1 in near real-time; and (3) to develop a multi-physics joint inversion approach to precisely predict flow patterns and physiochemical changes within an EAP-filled fracture network. This research project was built upon our previous work at the Devine Test Site managed by the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin (UT-Austin). It also leveraged a significant investment from the Advanced Energy Consortium (AEC) to address the DOE's interest in subsurface flow, containment, and characterization by multiple signals. This three-year and three-month project succeeded in demonstrating the feasibility of a real-time dynamic fluid flow mapping technique at Technology Readiness Level 5 (TRL5) by utilizing a commercially available surface-based Controlled-Source Electromagnetic (CSEM) method (Objectives 1, 2). We demonstrated that injections into an EAP-filled fracture could be successfully coupled with real-time electric field measurements on the surface, leading to remote monitoring of dynamic changes within the EAP-filled fracture. Furthermore, the observed electric field in our study is influenced by bottomhole pressure, flow rate, and salinity, which is demonstrated by comparing these parameters with the electrical field potentials. EM simulations solely based on assumptions of fracture conductivity changes during injection did not reproduce the whole measured electric field magnitudes. Preliminary estimates showed that including Streaming Potential (SP) in our geophysical model is likely needed to reduce the simulation misfit.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Bridging the gap: Deploying AI-based Models in Real-Time Fusion Plasma Control Systems

Achieving reliable real-time control in fusion plasma experiments requires strict timing guarantees across entire control algorithms. In earlier work by Abbate et al. (2023), we demonstrated the feasibility of neural-network-based control algorithms on the DIII-D tokamak using the internally developed open-source Keras2C library for model conversion into C (Conlin et al. (2021)). However, the initial implementations relied on data buffering and branching logic outside the neural network code, causing variability in execution times. Subsequent deployments on DIII-D and KSTAR—including the RTCAKENN algorithm for kinetic profile reconstruction—proved that minimizing branching and buffering throughout the pipeline yields consistent millisecond-level cycle times under real experimental conditions (Shousha et al. (2023)). However, keeping pace with rapidly evolving AI frameworks (e.g. PyTorch) is challenging. Finally, we, therefore, propose a community-driven open-source effort to expand the tool, enabling real-time deployment across diverse systems that require strictly bounded execution times.

AI-based models↗

Drug discovery efforts at George Mason University

With over 39,000 students, and research expenditures in excess of $200 million, George Mason University (GMU) is the largest R1 (Carnegie Classification of very high research activity) university in Virginia. Mason scientists have been involved in the discovery and development of novel diagnostics and therapeutics in areas as diverse as infectious diseases and cancer. Below are highlights of the efforts being led by Mason researchers in the drug discovery arena. To enable targeted cellular delivery, and non-biomedical applications, Veneziano and colleagues have developed a synthesis strategy that enables the design of self-assembling DNA nanoparticles (DNA origami) with prescribed shape and size in the 10 to 100 nm range. The nanoparticles can be loaded with molecules of interest such as drugs, proteins and peptides, and are a promising new addition to the drug delivery platforms currently in use. The investigators also recently used the DNA origami nanoparticles to fine tune the spatial presentation of immunogens to study the impact on B cell activation. These studies are an important step towards the rational design of vaccines for a variety of infectious agents. To elucidate the parameters for optimizing the delivery efficiency of lipid nanoparticles (LNPs), Buschmann, Paige and colleagues have devised methods for predicting and experimentally validating the pKa of LNPs based on the structure of the ionizable lipids used to formulate the LNPs. These studies may pave the way for the development of new LNP delivery vehicles that have reduced systemic distribution and improved endosomal release of their cargo post administration. To better understand protein-protein interactions and identify potential drug targets that disrupt such interactions, Luchini and colleagues have developed a methodology that identifies contact points between proteins using small molecule dyes. The dye molecules noncovalently bind to the accessible surfaces of a protein complex with very high affinity, but are excluded from contact regions. When the complex is denatured and digested with trypsin, the exposed regions covered by the dye do not get cleaved by the enzyme, whereas the contact points are digested. The resulting fragments can then be identified using mass spectrometry. The data generated can serve as the basis for designing small molecules and peptides that can disrupt the formation of protein complexes involved in disease processes. For example, using peptides based on the interleukin 1 receptor accessory protein (IL-1RAcP), Luchini, Liotta, Paige and colleagues disrupted the formation of IL-1/IL-R/IL-1RAcP complex and demonstrated that the inhibition of complex formation reduced the inflammatory response to IL-1B. Working on the discovery of novel antimicrobial agents, Bishop, van Hoek and colleagues have discovered a number of antimicrobial peptides from reptiles and other species. DRGN-1, is a synthetic peptide based on a histone H1-derived peptide that they had identified from Komodo Dragon plasma. DRGN-1 was shown to disrupt bacterial biofilms and promote wound healing in an animal model. The peptide, along with others, is being developed and tested in preclinical studies. Other research by van Hoek and colleagues focuses on in silico antimicrobial peptide discovery, screening of small molecules for antibacterial properties, as well as assessment of diffusible signal factors (DFS) as future therapeutics. The above examples provide insight into the cutting-edge studies undertaken by GMU scientists to develop novel methodologies and platform technologies important to drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Demonstration of a code coupling framework for modeling beam-collimator impacts in the advanced photon source

The high-brightness beams being produced in current and future accelerators present new machine protection concerns with the potential for high-energy-density (HED) conditions ( >100 J/mm 3 ) in beam-intercepting components. Simulating HED conditions in accelerators requires utilizing a suite of physics codes for particle dynamics, particle-matter interactions, and hydrodynamics. This paper describes a method of coupling the codes elegant, fluka, and flash to simulate the effects of a rapid beam loss in the advanced photon source storage ring and the resulting interaction of the beam and collimators. This paper expands previous work [J. Dooling et al., Collimator irradiation studies at the advanced photon source, in Proceedings of the IBIC-2023 (2023), pp. 245–249] by introducing a definition of the evolving geometry of the collimator surface as well as providing methods for simulating the absorption of synchrotron radiation and tracking shower particles produced during beam strikes. We demonstrate this framework by simulating machine conditions of the APS ring before and after its recent upgrade. Simulation results are compared with observed damage to collimators and test samples taken from the APS ring.

Accelerator/storage ring control systems↗

Combined Normal and Disruption, Electromagnetic Transient, Thermal, and Structural Analysis of COMPASS Upgrade

We report that COMPASS Upgrade is a replacement for the COMPASS device at the Institute of Plasma Physics (IPP) of the Czech Academy of Sciences. It is a cryogenic copper machine with a major radius of 0.89 m, with 5 T at the plasma centerline and 2-MA plasma current. It is intended to develop ITER relevant plasma densities and high power fluxes in the divertor region. The entire vacuum vessel is planned to reach 500 °C. The COMPASS-U TF coil is a bitter plate-like design with radial conductor plates that extend the width of the TF inner leg. Currents redistribute radially based on resistive and inductive effects. This necessitates an electromagnetic (EM) transient analysis of the coil current distribution. For copper coils like COMPASS Upgrade, the solution must be coupled with a thermal solution to properly include the temperature-dependent resistive effects. The EM transient solution includes the TF magnetic loads, and a stress pass on the results produces in-plane loads. The EM solution chosen requires inclusion of all the conducting and nonconducting regions surrounding the TF coil. With the TF current distribution solved, the addition of the poloidal coils and resulting background fields allows the determination of the out-of-plane loads. Integration of the Joule heating produced from the EM solution produces temperature distributions throughout the shot, which can be read in to a structural pass to include thermal stresses in the evaluation. This is true of both TF and PF temperature prediction with appropriate packing fractions. Currents in the PF coils, with computed background fields, produce Lorentz loads. Time transients of the PF currents produce startup eddy currents in the structures included in the model; inclusion of the vessel and other passive structures allows these to be included in a stress pass. The EM transient solution includes all the elements needed for a disruption analysis with prescribed motions and quench of the plasma. From a model originally intended to simulate current diffusion in the TF coil, the analysis can be refined to be used to predict the performance of most of the components of the tokamak or provide boundary conditions for more detailed submodels. In this article, the use of the current diffusion model for bounding assessments of the COMPASS Upgrade TF, PF, vessel, external structure, and disruption analyses will be presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Reconstruction of beam parameters and betatron radiation spectra measured with a Compton spectrometer

The photon flux resulting from high-energy electron beam interactions with high-field systems, such as those found in the upcoming FACET-II experiments at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, yields deep insight into the electron beam’s underlying dynamics during the interaction. However, extracting this information is an intricate process. To demonstrate how to approach this challenge using modern methods, this paper utilizes simulated data that models plasma wakefield acceleration-derived betatron radiation in experiments to determine reliable methods of reconstructing key beam and beam-plasma interaction properties. For betatron radiation measurements, translating the observed 200⁢ keV to 30⁢ MeV photon double-differential energy-angle spectra obtained from an advanced Compton spectrometer requires testing multiple methods to optimize the pipeline from its response to incident electron beam information. The paper compares maximum likelihood estimation and machine learning to refine the translation of photon spectra into precise electron beam metrics, such as spot size, energy, and emittance, enhancing the understanding of beam behavior within these dense, high-field environments. We also introduce machine learning and the expected maximization algorithm to reconstruct the primary photon spectrum, employing a multilayer neural network for regression analysis of the energy and angle spectra. With appropriate modifications, the advanced methods reproduce relevant incident beam parameters with high accuracy, even for beam sizes in the <10 μ⁢m range. This capacity is critical to understanding intense beam propagation and its optimization in plasma.

Beam code development & simulation techniques↗

Runaway electron-induced plasma facing component damagein tokamaks

This Roadmap article addresses the critical and multifaceted challenge of plasma facing component (PFC) damage caused by runaway electrons (REs) in tokamaks, a phenomenon that poses a significant threat to the viability and longevity of future fusion reactors such as ITER and DEMO. The dramatically increased RE production expected in future high-current tokamaks makes it very difficult to avoid or mitigate REs in such devices when a plasma discharge terminates abnormally. Preventing damage from the intense localised heat loads they can cause requires a holistic approach that considers plasma, REs and PFC damage. Despite decades of progress in understanding the physics of REs and the thermomechanical response of PFCs separately, their complex interplay remains poorly understood. This document aims to initiate a coordinated, interdisciplinary approach to bridge this gap by reviewing experimental evidence, advancing diagnostic capabilities, and improving modelling tools across different scales, dimensionalities, and fidelities. Key topics include RE beam formation and transport, damage mechanisms in both brittle and metallic PFCs, and observed effects in major facilities such as JET, DIII-D, WEST and EAST. The Roadmap emphasises the urgency of predictive, high-fidelity modelling validated against well-diagnosed controlled experiments, particularly in the light of recent changes in ITER’s wall material strategy and the growing importance of private sector fusion initiatives. Each section of the Roadmap article is written to provide a concise overview of one area of this multidisciplinary subject, with an assessment of the status, a look at current and future challenges, and a brief summary. The ultimate goal of this initiative is to guide future mitigation strategies and design resilient components that can withstand the intense localised loads imposed by REs, thus ensuring the safe and sustainable operation of the next generation of fusion power plants.

Ratynskaia, Svetlana [KTH Royal Inst. of Technolog↗