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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon

Abstract This study assesses the projected trajectory of Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) events in East Asia and North America through large ensemble simulation for the upcoming decades. It analyses the evolution of the geographical boundaries of threshold cold temperatures, revealing a significant northward shift as a sign of global warming’s impact on the southward advancement of Arctic cold air. While validating the intensification of the WACC phenomenon until the 2020 s, echoing earlier studies, the findings indicate a marked decrease beginning in the 2030s. If warming is not curbed, this shift suggests a critical modification in the WACC pattern, prompting a re-evaluation of existing theories and models for extreme winter weather events. The results have major implications, spurring communities impacted by WACC to anticipate future changes and encouraging the climate forecasting community to update conceptual models for improved adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distinct roles of land cover in regulating spatial variabilities of temperature responses to radiative effects of aerosols and clouds

Surface temperature responses to radiative perturbations due to aerosols and clouds are complicated by the land surface properties. To disentangle these complexities, this study, from a terrestrial surface energy budget perspective, isolates the underlying biophysical processes from the instantaneous radiative effects of aerosols and clouds on surface temperature using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1.2.1. It is found that in comparison with the global heterogeneous distributions of instantaneous radiative perturbations at the surface induced by aerosols and clouds, the spatial variations of the corresponding surface temperature responses to aerosol direct radiative effects (DRE) during the daytime and cloud radiative effects (CRE) during the nighttime are amplified. It is because of the consistent global distribution of the local surface climate sensitivity (a function of land cover properties such as surface roughness and Bowen ratio) with those of daytime DRE and nighttime CRE. By applying identical anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions over eight major past, present and projected future anthropogenic aerosol emitting regions (i.e. Brazil, China, East Africa, India, Indonesia, South Africa, United States and Western Europe), surface temperature responses to aerosol radiative cooling in the daytime and cloud radiative warming in the nighttime over these regions positively regulated by local surface climate sensitivities are prominent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI

Abstract Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work quantifies subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics within the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and assesses how this skill evolves on decadal timescales. Utilizing the networks’ confidence and explainable artificial intelligence, physically meaningful sources of predictability associated with periods of enhanced skill are identified. Using these networks, we find that tropically-driven subseasonal predictability varies on decadal timescales during forecasts of opportunity. Further, we investigate the drivers of the low frequency modulation of the tropical-extratropical teleconnection and discuss the implications. Analysis is extended to ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data, revealing that the relationships learned within the CESM2-Large Ensemble holds in modern reanalysis data. These results indicate that the neural networks are capable of identifying predictable decadal states of the climate system within CESM2 that are useful for making confident, accurate subseasonal precipitation predictions in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kicking the can down the road: understanding the effects of delaying the deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection

Abstract Climate change is a prevalent threat, and it is unlikely that current mitigation efforts will be enough to avoid unwanted impacts. One potential option to reduce climate change impacts is the use of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Even if SAI is ultimately deployed, it might be initiated only after some temperature target is exceeded. The consequences of such a delay are assessed herein. This study compares two cases, with the same target global mean temperature of ∼1.5° C above preindustrial, but start dates of 2035 or a ‘delayed’ start in 2045. We make use of simulations in the Community Earth System Model version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Coupled Chemistry Model version 6 (CESM2-WACCM6), using SAI under the SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. We find that delaying the start of deployment (relative to the target temperature) necessitates lower net radiative forcing (−30%) and thus larger sulfur dioxide injection rates (+20%), even after surface temperatures converge, to compensate for the extra energy absorbed by the Earth system. Southern hemisphere ozone is higher from 2035 to 2050 in the delayed start scenario, but converges to the same value later in the century. However, many of the surface climate differences between the 2035 and 2045 start simulations appear to be small during the 10–25 years following the delayed SAI start, although longer simulations would be needed to assess any longer-term impacts in this model. In addition, irreversibilities and tipping points that might be triggered during the period of increased warming may not be adequately represented in the model but could change this conclusion in the real world.

Brody, Ezra (ORCID:000900030008681X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density dependence of the symmetry energy in the post–PREX-CREX era

The recently published CREX results suggest a rather peculiar picture for the density dependence of the symmetry energy. Whereas PREX favors a large neutron skin thickness in 208 Pb, thereby suggesting a stiff equation of state, CREX suggests instead a much softer equation of state. Here, this discrepancy has caused a large spur in the theoretical community, since no model has been able to simultaneously reproduce within 1σ the PREX and CREX results. Motivated by a novel correlation between a CREX observable and a combination of bulk symmetry energy parameters, we calibrate three new covariant energy density functionals that reproduce binding energies and charge radii of spherical nuclei—and also accommodate the constraints imposed by PREX and CREX. Given that these models suggest a stiff equation of state at high densities, predictions for neutron star properties are also discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing the Multiscale Impacts of Implementing Energy-Efficient HVAC Improvements Through Energy Audits and Economic Input–Output Analysis

Abstract Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are usually an industry’s highest consumer of energy, most of which goes toward space cooling in buildings. Industrial energy-efficiency audits not only benefit manufacturers but also generate significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation. This article analyzes the micro- and macro scale impacts of implementing energy-efficient HVAC systems by integrating the industrial building energy data with the macroeconomic regional economic flow model. Micro-scale data include 10 years of historical energy, cost, and carbon dioxide savings achieved from energy-efficient HVAC implementation offered to manufacturers through industrial energy audits. The data were integrated into the macroeconomic modeling framework to illuminate the cascading regional economic impacts of implementing energy-efficient HVAC recommendations in manufacturing facilities. Results show that if recommendations had been implemented throughout all manufacturers in the region, $656 M energy costs would have been directly saved, 7.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions would have been avoided, and 4387 jobs could have been created, resulting in a total annual economic impact of $899 M stemming from direct, indirect, and induced impacts. The results offer insight into how industrial energy systems can be designed and provide models for how communities can accomplish a net-zero society.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2023

LLNL Automized Surface Titration Model

The LLNL Automized Surface Titration Model (L-ASTM) is a community data-driven surface complexation modeling workflow for simulating potentiometric titration of mineral surfaces. The model accepts raw experimental potentiometric titration data formatted in a findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) structure. The workflow was coded in Python and coupled to PHREEQC for surface complexation modeling and PEST for data fitting and parameter estimation.

Solchan, Han↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Budgets for Decadal Variability in Pacific Ocean Heat Content

A slowdown in the rate of surface warming in the early 2000s led to renewed interest in the redistribution of ocean heat content (OHC) and its relationship with internal climate variability. In this work we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 to study the relationship between OHC and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), a major mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. By comparing the relative contributions of surface heat flux and ocean dynamics to changes in OHC for different phases of the IPO, we try to identify the underlying physical processes involved. Our results suggest that during IPO phase transitions, changes of 0–300-m OHC across the northern extratropical Pacific are positively contributed by both surface heat flux and oceanic heat transport. By contrast, oceanic heat transport appears to drive the OHC changes in equatorial Pacific whereas surface heat flux acts as a damping term. During a positive IPO phase, weakened wind-driven circulation acts to increase the OHC in the equatorial Pacific while the enhanced evaporation acts to damp OHC anomalies. In the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region, a dipole anomaly of zonal heat advection amplifies an OHC dipole anomaly that moves eastward, while strong turbulent heat fluxes act to dampen this OHC anomaly. In the northern subtropical Pacific, both the wind-driven evaporation change and the change of zonal heat advection along Kuroshio Extension contribute to the OHC change during phase transition. For the northern subpolar Pacific, both surface heat flux and enhanced meridional advection contribute to the positive OHC anomalies during the positive IPO phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Hindcast Approach to Diagnosing the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue SST Bias in CESM1

An ensemble seasonal hindcast approach is used to investigate the development of the equatorial Pacific Ocean cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias and its characteristic annual cycle in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In observations, eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs exhibit a warm phase during boreal spring and a cold phase during late boreal summer–autumn. The CESM1 climatology shows a cold bias during both warm and cold phases. In our hindcasts, the cold bias during the cold phase develops in less than 6 months, whereas the cold bias during the warm phase takes longer to emerge. The fast-developing cold-phase cold bias is associated with too-strong vertical advection and easterly wind stress over the eastern equatorial region. The antecedent boreal summer easterly wind anomalies also appear in atmosphere-only simulations, indicating that the errors are intrinsic to the atmosphere component. For the slower-developing warm-phase cold bias, we find that the too-cold SSTs over the equatorial region are associated with a slowly evolving upward displacement of subsurface ocean zonal currents and isotherms that can be traced to the ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78 ± 0.29 W m -2 , which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; -0.70 ± 0.20 W m -2 ). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ΔT is -0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ΔT) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ΔT) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected End-of-Century Changes in the South American Monsoon in the CESM Large Ensemble

Projected changes in the South American monsoon system by the end of the twenty-first century are analyzed using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). The wet season is shorter in LENS when compared to observations, with the mean onset occurring 19 days later and the mean retreat date 21 days earlier in the season. Despite a precipitation bias, the seasonality of rainfall over South America is reproduced in LENS, as well as the main circulation features associated with the development of the South American monsoon. Both the onset and retreat of the wet season over South America are delayed in the future compared to current climate by 3 and 7 days, respectively, with a slightly longer wet season. Central and southeastern Brazil are projected to get wetter as a result of moisture convergence from the strengthening of the South Atlantic low-level jet and a weaker South Atlantic subtropical high. The Amazon is projected to get drier by the end of the century, negatively affecting rain forest productivity. During the wet season, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is found over most of South America, and especially over northeastern and southern Brazil and La Plata. Meanwhile, during the dry season an increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days is found over northeastern Brazil and the northern Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deforestation strengthens atmospheric transport of mineral dust and phosphorus from North Africa to the Amazon

Phosphorus contained in atmospheric mineral dust aerosol originating from Africa fertilizes tropical forests in Amazonia. However, the mechanisms influencing this nutrient transport pathway remain poorly understood. Here we use the Community Earth System Model to investigate how large-scale deforestation affects mineral dust aerosol transport and deposition in the tropics. We find that the surface biophysical changes that accompany deforestation produce a warmer, drier and windier surface environment that perturbs atmospheric circulation and enhances long-range dust transport from North Africa to the Amazon. Tropics-wide deforestation weakens the Hadley circulation, which in turn, leads to a northward expansion of the Hadley cell and increases surface air pressure over the Sahara Desert. Additionally, the high pressure anomaly over the Sahara, in turn, increases northeasterly winds across North Africa and the tropical North Atlantic Ocean, which subsequently increases dust transport to the South America continent. We estimate that the annual atmospheric phosphorus deposition from dust significantly increases by 27% (P < 0.01) in the Amazon under a scenario of complete deforestation. These interactions exemplify how land surface changes can modify tropical nutrient cycling, which in turn, may have consequences for long-term changes in tropical ecosystem productivity and biodiversity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

The influence of variability in meridional over turning on global ocean circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important global scale circulation and changes in AMOC can induce significant regional and global climate impacts. In this work, we study the stability of AMOC and its influence on global ocean circulation and the surface climate though analyzing a set of sensitivity experiments using the Community Climate System Model version 1 (CESM1). Results show that a collapsed AMOC can induce changes in global ocean circulation, such as reduced (or reversed) Bering Strait transport, weakened Indonesia throughflow and Agulhas current, but strengthened Drake Passage transport. It also changes the global wind pattern and surface temperature, such as a seesaw-like surface temperature change between Northern and Southern Hemispheres, a weakening of Indian-Australia summer monsoon, a southward shift of the Southern ocean westerlies, etc. We also found that AMOC and the Pacific deep meridional overturning circulation (or PMOC) do not form a natural seesaw under modern day climate and geography. A collapsed AMOC (active PMOC) is not stable under modern conditions if there is no additional freshwater (salt) input in the subpolar North Atlantic (Pacific), suggesting that the modern mean state of AMOC (PMOC) does not depend on local haline forcing although its variability and changes do.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon over the Maritime Continent and ENSO Variability

Fire emissions from the Maritime Continent (MC) over the western tropical Pacific are strongly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), posing various climate effects to the Earth system. Here, in this study, we show that the historical biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC bb ) aerosol in the dry season from the MC are strengthened in El Niño years due to the dry conditions. The eastern Pacific type of El Niño exerts a stronger modulation in BC bb emissions over the MC region than the central Pacific type of El Niño. Based on simulations using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM), the impacts of increased BC bb emissions on ENSO variability and frequency are also investigated in this study. With BC bb emissions from the MC scaled up by a factor of 10, which enables the identification of climate response from the internal variability, the increased BC bb heats the local atmosphere and changes land–sea thermal contrast, which suppresses the westward transport of the eastern Pacific surface water. It leads to an increase in sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, which further enhances ENSO variability and increases the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events. This study highlights the potential role of BC bb emissions on extreme ENSO frequency, and this role may be increasingly important in the warming future with higher wildfire risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗