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At least 595 records · Page 33

A stochastic model of cumulus clumping

Observations show that cumulus clouds often occur in long-lived mesoscale groups, or clumps. Five possible explanations of clumping are surveyed. The 'mutual protection hypothesis,' that clumps occur because cumulus clouds create and maintain, in their near environments, relatively favorable conditions for the development of succeeding clouds, is examined at length. This idea is tested through the use of a simple time-dependent model in which clouds, triggered at randomly selected locations, tend to stabilize their environment in the face of a prescribed constant forcing. Results show that clumping occurs when the cloud-induced stabilization rate is strongest at an intermediate distance from a cloud, and that it does not occur when the stabilization rate decreases monotonically away from a cloud.

Randall, D. A.↗

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗

The Role of Mesoscale Variability on Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic

The intensive field observational phase of JGOFS in the North Atlantic Ocean has shown the importance of oceanic mesoscale variability on biogeochemical cycles and on the strength of the ocean biological pump. Mesoscale physical dynamics govern the major time/space scales of bulk biological variability (biomass, production, and export). Mesoscale eddies seem to have a strong impact on the ecosystem structure and functioning, but observational evidence is rather limited. For the signature of the mesoscale features to exist in the ecosystem, the comparison of temporal scales of formation and evolution of mesoscale features and reaction of the ecosystem is a key factor. Biological patterns are driven by active changes in biological source and sink terms rather than simply by passive turbulent mixing. A first modelling assessment of the regional balances between horizontal and vertical eddy-induced nutrient supplies in the euphotic zone shows that the horizontal transport predominates over the vertical route in the subtropical gyre, whereas the reverse holds true for the other biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic. Presently, despite some difference in numbers, the net impact of modelled eddies yields an enhancement of the biological productivity in most provinces of the North Atlantic Ocean. Key issues remaining include variation on the mesoscale of subsurface particle and dissolved organic matter remineralization, improved knowledge of the ecological response to patterns of variability, synopticity in mesoscale surveys along with refining measures of biogeochemical time/space variability. Eventual success of assimilation of in situ and satellite data, still in its infancy in coupled physical/biogeochemical models, will be crucial to achieve JGOFS synthesis in answering which data are most informative, standing stocks or rates, and which ones are relevant. Depending on which end of the spectrum quantification of the effect of mesoscale features on production and community structure is required, complementary strategies are offered. Either one may choose to increase resolution of models up to the very fine mesoscale features scale (a few kms) for the high end, or to include a parametric representation of eddies for the low end.

Garcon, Veronique C.↗

The Role of Mesoscale Variability on Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic

The intensive field observational phase of JGOFS in the North Atlantic Ocean has shown the importance of oceanic mesoscale variability on biogeochemical cycles and on the strength of the ocean biological pump. Mesoscale physical dynamics govern the major time/space scales of bulk biological variability (biomass, production and export). Mesoscale eddies seem to have a strong impact on the ecosystem structure and functioning, but observational evidence is rather limited. For the signature of the mesoscale features to exist in the ecosystem, the comparison of temporal scales of formation and evolution of mesoscale features and reaction of the ecosystem is a key factor. Biological patterns are driven by active changes in biological source and sink terms rather than simply by passive turbulent mixing. A first modelling assessment of the regional balances between horizontal and vertical eddy-induced nutrient supplies in the euphotic zone shows that the horizontal transport predominates over the vertical route in the subtropical gyre, whereas the reverse holds true for the other biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic. Presently. despite some difference in numbers, the net impact of modelled eddies yields an enhancement of the biological productivity in most provinces of the North Atlantic Ocean. Key issues remaining include variation on the mesoscale of subsurface particle and dissolved organic matter remineralization, improved knowledge of the ecological response to patterns of variability, synopticity in mesoscale surveys along with refining measures of biogeochemical time/space variability. Eventual success of assimilation of in situ and satellite data, still in its infancy in coupled physical/biogeochemical models, will be crucial to achieve JGOFS synthesis in answering which data are most informative, standing stocks or rates, and which ones are relevant. Depending on which end of the spectrum quantification of the effect of mesoscale features on production and community structure is required, complementary strategies are offered. Either one may choose to increase resolution of models up to the very fine mesoscale features scale (a few kms) for the high end, or to include a parametric representation of eddies for the low end.

Garcon, Veronique, C.↗

An Investigation of the Marine Boundary Layer During Cold Air Outbreak

Various aspects of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) during cold air outbreak using data from the Mesoscale Air Sea Interaction Experiment (MASEX) and using a model for the MABL developed by Stage and Businger (1981,b) were studied. Several areas were identified for emphasis in this project: (1) determination of the momentum budget and divergence of the MABL; (2) development and testing of techniques for the remote determination of ocean surface sensible and latent heat fluxes by use of satellite data; (3) use of MASEX data to evaluate various techniques for parameterizing layer turbulence, to determine the typical magnitudes of such parameters and to improve the MABL model; and (4) use of the resulting MABL model and understanding of layer parameters to develop and evaluate more sophisticated schemes for remotely sensing layer evolution and sea surface sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Stage, S. A.↗

Current issues concerning the representativeness and utility of cloud drift winds in mesoscale meteorology

High-resolution cloud motion wind (CMW) data sets obtained from geostationary satellites for approximately the past decade have been used for the purpose of estimating mesoscale wind fields in various research studies. Yet there remains much controversy surrounding the proper interpretation and use of the resultant wind vector and kinematic fields. This paper is concerned with: (1) how representative are cloud draft winds of actual ambient air motions; and (2) what is the degree of practical usefulness of CMW fields for both mesoscale analysis and as input to numerical weather prediction models.

Koch, Steven E.↗

Wind Field Measurements With Airborne Doppler Lidar

In collaboration with lidar atmospheric remote sensing groups at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Environmental Technology Laboratory, we have developed and flown the Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS) lidar on the NASA DC-8 research aircraft. The scientific motivations for this effort are: to obtain measurements of subgrid scale (i.e. 2-200 km) processes and features which may be used to improve parameterizations in global/regional-scale models; to improve understanding and predictive capabilities on the mesoscale; and to assess the performance of Earth-orbiting Doppler lidar for global tropospheric wind measurements. MACAWS is a scanning Doppler lidar using a pulsed transmitter and coherent detection; the use of the scanner allows 3-D wind fields to be produced from the data. The instrument can also be radiometrically calibrated and used to study aerosol, cloud, and surface scattering characteristics at the lidar wavelength in the thermal infrared. MACAWS was used to study surface winds off the California coast near Point Arena, with an example depicted in the figure below. The northerly flow here is due to the Pacific subtropical high. The coastal topography interacts with the northerly flow in the marine inversion layer, and when the flow passes a cape or point that juts into the winds, structures called "hydraulic expansion fans" are observed. These are marked by strong variation along the vertical and cross-shore directions. The plots below show three horizontal slices at different heights above sea level (ASL). Bottom plots are enlargements of the area marked by dotted boxes above. The terrain contours are in 200-m increments, with the white spots being above 600-m elevation. Additional information is contained in the original.

Menzies, Robert T.↗

Scientific goals of the Cooperative Multiscale Experiment (CME)

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) form the focus of CME. Recent developments in global climate models, the urgent need to improve the representation of the physics of convection, radiation, the boundary layer, and orography, and the surge of interest in coupling hydrologic, chemistry, and atmospheric models of various scales, have emphasized the need for a broad interdisciplinary and multi-scale approach to understanding and predicting MCS's and their interactions with processes at other scales. The role of mesoscale systems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the representation of organized convection and other mesoscale flux sources in terms of bulk properties, and the mutually consistent treatment of water vapor, clouds, radiation, and precipitation, are all key scientific issues concerning which CME will seek to increase understanding. The manner in which convective, mesoscale, and larger scale processes interact to produce and organize MCS's, the moisture cycling properties of MCS's, and the use of coupled cloud/mesoscale models to better understand these processes, are also major objectives of CME. Particular emphasis will be placed on the multi-scale role of MCS's in the hydrological cycle and in the production and transport of chemical trace constituents. The scientific goals of the CME consist of the following: understand how the large and small scales of motion influence the location, structure, intensity, and life cycles of MCS's; understand processes and conditions that determine the relative roles of balanced (slow manifold) and unbalanced (fast manifold) circulations in the dynamics of MCS's throughout their life cycles; assess the predictability of MCS's and improve the quantitative forecasting of precipitation and severe weather events; quantify the upscale feedback of MCS's to the large-scale environment and determine interrelationships between MCS occurrence and variations in the large-scale flow and surface forcing; provide a data base for initialization and verification of coupled regional, mesoscale/hydrologic, mesoscale/chemistry, and prototype mesoscale/cloud-resolving models for prediction of severe weather, ceilings, and visibility; provide a data base for initialization and validation of cloud-resolving models, and for assisting in the fabrication, calibration, and testing of cloud and MCS parameterization schemes; and provide a data base for validation of four dimensional data assimilation schemes and algorithms for retrieving cloud and state parameters from remote sensing instrumentation.

Cotton, William↗

Impact of Meteorological Factors on the Mesoscale Morphology of Cloud Streets during a Cold-Air Outbreak over the Western North Atlantic

Postfrontal clouds (PFC) are ubiquitous in the marine boundary layer, and their morphology is essential to estimating the radiation budget in weather and climate models. Here we examine the roles of sea surface temperature (SST) and meteorological factors in controlling the mesoscale morphology and evolution of shallow clouds associated with a cold-air outbreak that occurred on 1 March 2020 during phase I of the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). Our results show that the simulated PFC structure and ambient conditions by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are generally consistent with observations from GOES-16 and dropsonde measurements. We also examine the thermodynamical and dynamical influences in the cloud mesoscale morphology using WRF sensitivity experiments driven by two meteorological forcing datasets with different domain-mean SST and spatial gradients, which lead to dissimilar values of hydrometeor water path and cloud core fraction. The SST from ERA5 leads to weaker stability and higher inversion height than the SST from FNL does. In addition, the use of large-scale meteorological forcings from ERA5 yields a distinctive time evolution of wind direction shear in the inner domain, which favors the formation and persistence of longer cloud rolls. Both factors contribute to a change in the time evolution of domain-mean water path and cloud core fraction of cloud streets. Our study takes advantage of the simulation driven by the differences between two large-scale forcing datasets to illustrate the importance of SST and wind direction shear in the cloud street morphology in a realistic scenario

Jingyi Chen↗

A study of the response of deep tropical clouds to mesoscale processes - Three-dimensional numerical experiments

A three-dimensional numerical cloud model is utilized to study the collective feedback effects of cloud systems on the large-scale environment. The characteristic features of the cloud ensemble model are described. The model is applied to a case of a well-defined ITCZ rainband over the eastern tropical Atlantic ocean. The location, number, and configuration of the clouds that formed in the model during the simulations are examined. The cloud heating and moistening, environmental wind shear, and vertical transports of momentum are analyzed. The collective feedbacks of cloud systems on the large-scale temperature, moisture, and horizontal momentum fields are computed after each simulation. The effect of the pressure gradient force on the v-momentum flux is investigated. It is observed that there is good correlation between the model simulations and the observed data.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

An Automated Meshing Framework for Progressive Damage Analysis of Fabrics Using CompDam

A meshing and model construction framework for progressive damage analysis of fabric composites is proposed. A mesoscale idealization is used such that the fiber tows are considered homogeneous and transversely isotropic continua, and the matrix is a homogeneous isotropic continuum. By using this idealization, relatively mature damage modeling techniques developed for laminates of unidirectional plies are transferrable to fabrics. Cohesive interface elements and a continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model implemented in the software CompDam are used to account for the key damage modes including cracking at the tow/matrix interface, transverse matrix cracking in the tows, and fiber breakage in the tows. Matrix degradation is accounted for by plasticity. The modeling approach is demonstrated for a 3D orthogonal woven fabric. The main novelty of the proposed model construction framework is in its flexibility resulting from a formulation that is agnostic to the fabric architecture and implementation using mesh based operations. The algorithm does not make any assumptions about the tow sizes, shape, path, or proximity to other tows, thus it is applicable to a broad range of fabric architectures. The matrix region mesh surrounding the tows is constructed from domain boundary and tow surface meshes (i.e. through a series of mesh-based operations) such that the model domain can be arbitrarily shaped.

Andrew Cole Bergan↗

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗

Cloud draft structure and trace gas transport

During the second Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE 2B), meteorological observations, chemical measurements, and model simulations are utilized in order to interpret convective cloud draft structure and to analyze its role in transport and vertical distribution of trace gases. One-dimensional photochemical model results suggest that the observed poststorm changes in ozone concentration can be attributed to convective transports rather than photochemical production and the results of a two-dimensional time-dependent cloud model simulation are presented for the May 6, 1987 squall system. The mesoscale convective system exhibited evidence of significant midlevel detrainment in addition to transports to anvil heights. Chemical measurements of O3 and CO obtained in the convective environment are used to predict photochemical production within the troposphere and to corroborate the cloud model results.

Scala, John R.↗

Large- and Small-Scale Ring Current Electrodynamic Coupling

In this talk we will address the two primary issues of ring current (RC) electrodynamic coupling: 1. RC self-consistent magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling that includes calculation of the magnetospheric electric field (large scale electrodynamic coupling); and 2. RC self-consistent coupling with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves (small scale electrodynamic coupling). Our study will be based on two RC models that we have recently developed in our group. The first model by Khazanov et al. [2002] couples the system of two kinetic equations: one equation which describes the RC ion dynamics and another equation which describes the energy density evolution of EMIC waves. The second model by Khazanov et al. [2003] deals with large scale electrodynamic coupling processes and provides a self-consistent simulation of RC ions and the magnetospheric electric field. There is presently no model that addresses both of these issues simultaneously in a self-consistent calculation. However, the need exists for such a model, because these two processes directly influence each other, with the mesoscale coupling changing the drift paths of the thermal and energetic particle populations in the inner magnetosphere, thereby changing the wave interactions, and the microscale coupling altering the pitch angle distributions and ionospheric conductivities (through increased precipitation), thus changing the field-aligned currents and electric potential structure. The initial thrust of the work will be the development of a combined kinetic model of micro- and meso-scale RC electrodynamic coupling processes and to examine their interactions with each other on a global scale.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

Ring Current Electrodynamic Coupling

In this talk we will address the two primary issues of ring current (RC) electrodynamic coupling: 1. RC self-consistent coupling with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves (small scale electrodynamic coupling); and 2. RC self-consistent magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling that includes calculation of the magnetospheric electric field (large scale electrodynamic coupling). Our study will be based on two RC models that we have recently developed in our group. The first model by Khazanov et al. [2002, 20031 couples the system of two kinetic equations: one equation which describes the RC ion dynamics and another equation which describes the energy density evolution of EMIC waves. The second model by Khazanov et al. [2003] deals with large scale electrodynamic coupling processes and provides a self-consistent simulation of RC ions, electrons and the magnetospheric electric field. There is presently no model that addresses both of these issues simultaneously in a self-consistent calculation. However, the need exists for such a model, because these two processes directly influence each other, with the mesoscale coupling changing the drift paths of the thermal and energetic particle populations in the inner magnetosphere, thereby changing the wave interactions, and the microscale coupling altering the pitch angle distributions and ionospheric conductivities (through increased precipitation), thus changing the field-aligned currents and electric potential structure. The initial thrust of the work will be the development of a combined kinetic model of micro- and meso-scale RC electrodynamic coupling processes and to examine their interactions with each other on a global scale. We also discuss the nonlinear coupling of EMIC and lower hybrid waves in the RC region during the May 2-7, 1998 storm period.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

Three-Dimensional, Space-Dependent Mesoscale Diffusivity: Derivation and Implications

Recently, we presented a parameterization of an arbitrary tracer 3D mesoscale flux that describes both diabatic and adiabatic regimes without using arbitrary tapering functions. However, we did not parameterize the mesoscale diffusivity, which is the subject of this work. A key difference between the present and previous diffusivity parameterizations is that in the latter, the two main ingredients, mesoscale drift velocity and eddy kinetic energy, were not parameterized but determined using present data, which deprives the models of predictive power. Since winds, stratification, etc., are predicted to change in the future, use of these parameterizations to study future climate scenarios becomes questionable. In this work, we parameterize drift velocity and eddy kinetic energy (vertical–horizontal components), which we first assess with data [WOCE, TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), and North Atlantic Tracer Release Experiment (NATRE)] and then use in a coarse-resolution stand-alone ocean code under Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiment I (CORE-I) forcing. We present results for the global ocean temperature and salinity, Atlantic overturning circulation, meridional heat transport, and Drake Passage transport, which we compare with several previous studies. The temperature drift is less than that of five of seven previous OGCMs, and the salinity drift is among the smallest in those studies. The predicted winter Antarctic Circumpolar Current mixed layer depths (MLDs) are in good agreement with the data. Predicting the correct MLD is important in climate studies since models that predict very deep mixed layers transfer more of the radiative perturbation to the deep ocean, reducing surface warming (and vice versa).

Eddies; Mesoscale processes; Mixing; Ocean models;↗

LAMPS software

The dynamic prediction model along with its macro-processor capability and data flow system from the Drexel Limited-Area and Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS) were converted and recorded for the Perkin-Elmer 3220. The previous version of this model was written for Control Data Corporation 7600 and CRAY-1a computer environment which existed until recently at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The purpose of this conversion was to prepare LAMPS for porting to computer environments other than that encountered at NCAR. The emphasis was shifted from programming tasks to model simulation and evaluation tests.

Perkey, D. J.↗

Trade-Wind Cloudiness and Climate

Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection (MCC) consists of mesoscale cloud patches separated by narrow clear regions. Strong radiative cooling occurs at the cloud top. A dry two-dimensional Bousinesq model is used to study the effects of cloud-top cooling on convection. Wide updrafts and narrow downdrafts are used to indicate the asymmetric circulations associated with the mesoscale cloud patches. Based on the numerical results, a conceptual model was constructed to suggest a mechanism for the formation of closed MCC over cool ocean surfaces. A new method to estimate the radioative and evaporative cooling in the entrainment layer of a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer has been developed. The method was applied to a set of Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) results and to a set of tethered-balloon data obtained during FIRE. We developed a statocumulus-capped marine mixed layer model which includes a parameterization of drizzle based on the use of a predicted Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) number concentration. We have developed, implemented, and tested a very elaborate new stratiform cloudiness parameterization for use in GCMs. Finally, we have developed a new, mechanistic parameterization of the effects of cloud-top cooling on the entrainment rate.

Randall, David A.↗