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DOE OSTI2021

Improving the characterization of fusion in a MuSIC detector by spatial localization

Multi-Sampling Ionization Chambers (MuSIC) provide an efficient means of measuring nuclear reactions with low beam rates (< 10 6 pps). However, in comparison to thin-target measurements, prior measurements using MuSIC detectors all manifest fusion excitation functions with wide error bars in the energy dimension. This uncertainty limits the applicability of these devices in measuring near and sub-barrier fusion cross-sections. Key to overcoming this limitation is spatial localization of the fusion in the detector. By comparing the measured ionization in the MuSIC detector with accurate energy loss calculations the position of the fusion in the detector is determined. The analysis not only provides the desired improvement in energy resolution, but it also allows extraction of the atomic number of the evaporation residues following fusion. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated for 18 O+ 12 C measured with MuSIC@Indiana.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurements of Six-Junction Concentrator Solar Cells

Accurate measurements of six-junction inverted metamorphic concentrator solar cells under AM1.5 direct spectrum are obtained by adjusting the spectrum of a tunable high-intensity solar simulator with custom mirrors. Isotype reference cells and broadband InGaAs QE calibration cells were developed for accurate measurements. Modeling and varying the illumination show that an unavoidable 15% - 17% overillumination on the sixth junction does not result in significant error of these 6J IMM devices. Spectrally adjusted flash measurements are independently confirmed by NREL's Cell and Module Performance team. Concentration measurements of a 6J IMM solar cell resulted in 47.1 ± 3.2% (absolute) efficiency at 143 suns.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validating automated resonance evaluation with synthetic data

The integrity and precision of nuclear data are crucial for a broad spectrum of applications, from national security and nuclear reactor design to medical diagnostics, where the associated uncertainties can significantly impact outcomes. A substantial portion of uncertainty in nuclear data originates from the subjective biases in the evaluation process, a crucial phase in the nuclear data production pipeline. Recent advancements indicate that automation of certain routines can mitigate these biases, thereby standardizing the evaluation process and enhancing reproducibility. This research aims to provide a methodology, framework, and metrics for the validation of automated nuclear data evaluation software leveraging high-quality synthetic data that closely mimic real experimental observables. An introduced error metric provides a scale and intuitive measure of the evaluation quality by quantifying the estimate’s accuracy and performance across the specified energy range. Synthetic data provides access to experimental observables and underlying resonance parameters, enabling comparison of different evaluations. The methodology is demonstrated using Ta-181 isotope data in the resolved resonance region. The Automated Resonance Identification Subroutine (ARIS), which operates without prior resonance information, was used to test and showcase the framework’s capabilities utilizing the proposed error metrics. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and framework for optimizing software parameters and testing hypotheses through “what-if” controlled experiments, such as modifying assumptions about experimental conditions or average resonance parameters.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Error quantification of the Arrhenius blending rule for viscosity of hydrocarbon mixtures

Six hundred and seventy-five measurements of dynamic viscosity and density have been used to assess the prediction error of the Arrhenius blending rule for kinematic viscosity of hydrocarbon mixtures. Major trends within the data show that mixture complexity–binary to hundreds of components—and temperature are more important determinants of prediction error than differences in molecular size or hydrogen saturation between the components of the mixtures. Over the range evaluated, no correlation between prediction error and mole fractions was observed, suggesting the log of viscosity truly is linear in mole fraction, as indicated by the Arrhenius blending rule. Mixture complexity and temperature also impact molar volume and its prediction. However, a linear regression between the two model errors explains less than 20% of the observed variation, indicating that mixture viscosity and/or molar volume are not linear with respect to temperature and/or mixture complexity. Extensive discussion of the intermolecular forces and the geometric arrangement of molecules and vacancies in liquids, which ultimately determines its viscosity, is brought into context with the implicit approximations behind the Arrhenius blending rule. The complexity of this physics is not compatible with a simple algebraic correction to the model. However, sufficient data is now available to determine confidence intervals around the prediction of fuel viscosity based on its component mole fractions and viscosities. At -40°C, when all identified components are pure molecules the modeling error is 13.2% of the predicted (nominal) viscosity times the root mean square of the component mole fractions.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Extending the range of constant strain rate nanoindentation testing

Constant strain rate nanoindentation hardness measurements at high sustained strain rates cannot be made in conventional nanoindentation testing systems using the commonly employed continuous stiffness measurement technique (CSM) because of the “plasticity error” recently reported by Merle et al. [Acta Mater.134, 167 (2017)]. To circumvent this problem, here we explore an alternative testing and analysis procedure based on quasi-static loading and an independent knowledge of the Young's modulus, which is easily obtained by standard nanoindentation testing. In theory, the method applies to any indentation strain rate, but in practice, an upper limit on the rate arises from hardware limitations in the testing system. The new methodology is developed and applied to measurements made with an iMicro nanoindenter (KLA, Inc.), in which strain rates up to 100 s -1 were successfully achieved. The origins of the hardware limitations are documented and discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for CPT and Lorentz invariance violation in the muon $g -2$ experiment at Fermilab

The Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab (E989) aims to measure the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a_{\mu}= (g-2)/2$, to a groundbreaking precision of $140$ ppb, obtaining a near four-fold increase in precision over the previous experiment, E821, at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The value of $a_{\mu}$ from BNL currently differs from the Standard Model prediction by $\sim 3.7$ standard deviations, suggesting the potential for new physics and therefore, motivating a new experiment.Because the theory predicts this number with high precision, testing the g-factor through experiment provides a stringent test of the SM and can suggest physics beyond the Standard Model. The goal of the Fermilab Muon $g-2$ experiment is to increase the statistical precision by more than a factor of 20 and reduce systematic errors by a factor of 3. By measuring muon precession rate ($\omega_a$) in an external magnetic field, the anomalous magnetic moment will be calculated. This is an incredibly challenging experiment with a unique opportunity to provide new insight into nature. \\ The $g-2$ data also provides a great opportunity for setting the most stringent limits on some of the Standard Model Extension CPT Lorentz violating (LV) parameters in the muon sector. One of the CPT and Lorentz violating signatures that we can look for using $g-2$ data is a sidereal variation of $\omega_a(t)$. Extensive simulation studies confirm that the sensitivity regarding the sidereal varation roughly scales with $\omega_a$ uncertainty. Hence, the $g-2$ experiment at FNAL should be able to reach limits of $\sim 5\times10^{-25}$ GeV. Because the CPT and LV analyses are essentially studies of variations in $\omega_a$ as a function of time and charge, performing an $\omega_a$ analysis sets the stage for the CPT and LV measurement. This dissertation focuses on the methodology of a fully functioning framework and analyzing the Fermilab Muon $g - 2$ Run 2 data containing $\sim 11$ billion events above an energy threshold of $1.7$~GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A New Modeling Approach for a Priori Uncertainties of Laser Tracker Angle Measurements

Methods for modeling the uncertainty in laser tracker angle measurements vary within the metrology industry, leading to confusion and questionable stochastic modeling for survey network adjustments and error propagation analysis. Interpreting the published laser tracker manufacturer performance specifications to determine an a priori sigma value for weighting azimuth and zenith angle measurements can be confusing and has led to differing implementations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a unique way to model survey network a priori laser tracker angular uncertainties based on laser tracker manufacturers’ published maximum permissible error (MPE) values referenced to current standards for weighting survey network measurements. This paper’s proposed model takes into account the disparate effects that pointing errors, target centering errors, and leveling errors have on azimuth and zenith angular uncertainties for measurements with steep sightings and at near ranges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum utility-scale error mitigation for quantum quench dynamics in Heisenberg spin chains

Here, we implement a quantum error mitigation method termed self-mitigation, which is comparable to zero-noise extrapolation, at large scales to achieve quantum utility on near-term, noisy quantum computers. We investigate the effectiveness of several quantum error mitigation strategies, including self-mitigation, by simulating quantum quench dynamics for Heisenberg spin chains with system sizes up to 104 qubits using IBM quantum processors. In particular, we discuss the limitations of zero-noise extrapolation and the advantages offered by self-mitigation at large scales. The self-mitigation method demonstrates stable accuracy with large systems of 104 qubits comprising more than 3,000 CNOT gates. Also, we combine the discussed quantum error mitigation methods with practical entanglement entropy measuring methods, and it shows a good agreement with the theoretical estimation. Our study illustrates the usefulness of near-term noisy quantum hardware in examining the quantum quench dynamics of many-body systems at large scales and lays the groundwork for surpassing classical simulations with quantum methods prior to the development of fault-tolerant quantum computers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Laser Confocal Microscopy Uncertainty Quantification Study

At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Storage Safety and Engineering (SSE) team completes annual surveillance on a subset of in-use interim nuclear material storage containers in fulfilment of requirements outlined in DOE Manual M 441.1-1. The containers are selected through several methods, such as subject matter expert judgement, random selection, and trending items. Following these selections, the SSE team has the capacity to complete surveillance on 15-20 containers each fiscal year, composed of a combination of SAVY-4000 and Hagan storage containers. Through previous work, the stainless-steel components of the containers have been identified as life limiting components, with an emphasis on the thin-walled bodies. The team is focused on understanding the extent of general and pitting corrosion, due to observations of extensive corrosion from stored contents and bag-out-bag degradation. Quantifying corrosion effects on the thin-walled stainless steel container bodies, and understanding potential impacts to the respective design release rates and design qualification release rates is paramount to the team. To date, destructive examination (DE) has proven to be the most insightful method for developing an understanding on the extent of corrosion on used containers. To standardize this process, the SSE team developed a destructive examination guide for analyzing stainless steel components of the containers. Corroded containers of interest are identified during surveillance activities and set aside for sectioning and characterization. Following sectioning, a major step in the DE workflow is the utilization of laser confocal microscopy for scanning corroded samples of interest and extracting data on pits, such as count, depth, and equivalent diameter. Adhering to the techniques outlined in the DE guide, analysis has been completed on two Hagans and one SAVY-4000 container, with the maximum pit depth recorded as 139.1 ± 22.82 μm on a 17.5 year old Hagan. The findings from the completed destructive examinations will be utilized to support lifetime extension efforts of the SAVY-4000 as the team can better estimate corrosion rates and effects over time based on stored contents and age. Due to the implications of observing extreme pit depths that approach the nominal container body thickness of .0299 inches (0.759 mm) or minimum container thickness of 0.236” (0.6 mm), high confidence in the LCM measurements is desired. Through testing outlined in, it was concluded that the total error ascribed to the 20x objective when conducting large image mapping on the Keyence VK-X3050 laser confocal microscope (LCM) relative to a 50x objective (reference) is 16.4% (± 8.73%). For shallow features on the order of pristine SAVY surface defects (i.e. 5 μm), this uncertainty is appropriate. However, this conservative estimate of total error poses a fundamental concern for pit depths that approach the thickness of the measured samples. That is, with the measurement uncertainty currently employed on all measurements, the LCM would be unable to resolve if a pit with a depth of 515 μm is through wall. Standard step height samples were procured and used in the present study to assess the resolution and repeatability of height measurements. Understanding the resolution and repeatability of height measurements was the first focus of the team as it relates directly to pit depth, which is of primary concern. Calibration gratings were procured to evaluate the resolution and repeatability of measurements in the X and Y axes of the LCM stage. The results of the depth uncertainty study were conducted first and presented in the subsequent sections. The planar uncertainty study is appended to the depth study with conclusions from both summarized at the end of the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Experimental Investigation of Students’ Learning Effects When Using a Simplified Nuclear Simulator

Securing enough data has been a main challenge in human reliability analysis (HRA). Many researchers and institutes have made a lot of efforts for collecting HRA data to produce reasonable human error probabilities (HEPs) as well as reduce the uncertainty of HRA quantification. Representatively, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC), Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have led lots of empirical research regarding the HRA data collection. The U.S. NRC and KAERI have mainly carried out full-scope simulator research collecting HRA data through experiments using full-scope simulators with actual operators. In contrast, INL has experimentally collected the data using simplified simulators and student operators. INL has proposed the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) framework to complement full-scope data collection efforts by suggesting a way to infer full-scope data based on experimental data collected from students operating simplified simulators, specifically the Rancor Microworld Simulator (Rancor) and the Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS). The aim of the SHEEP framework is to lower the entry point for collecting useful HRA data by securing large sample sizes at a reasonable amount of cost and labor while also guaranteeing a high degree of freedom when designing experiments. The authors’ previous research investigated whether data collected from the SHEEP framework could support a representative full-scope study. Besides, human performance differences between professional and student operators when using Rancor and CNS have been analyzed to understand the lack of fidelity of the simplified simulators and student operators within the SHEEP study. As a follow up research, this study experimentally investigates students’ learning effects and the performance trends over a certain period when using Rancor. This study aims to find out 1) how much training or education is required to collect HRA data from non-experts (i.e., students) when using Rancor and 2) how much differences there are in human performance measures between students and professional operators. In this study, a longitudinal experiment is developed. The four experiment trials with two weeks interval are carried out for sixteen undergraduate students majoring nuclear engineering at Chosun University. Totally four scenarios randomly selected from ten Rancor scenarios are used in each experiment trial. Four human performance measurements (i.e., workload, situation awareness, time and error) are considered in the experiment. Lastly, the trend of students’ performance is compared with operator data having been collected from the previous experiment.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inference-Based Quantum Sensing

In a standard quantum sensing (QS) task one aims at estimating an unknown parameter θ, encoded into an n-qubit probe state, via measurements of the system. The success of this task hinges on the ability to correlate changes in the parameter to changes in the system response $\mathscr{R}$⁡(θ) (i.e., changes in the measurement outcomes). For simple cases the form of $\mathscr{R}$⁡(θ) is known, but the same cannot be said for realistic scenarios, as no general closed-form expression exists. Here, in this Letter, we present an inference-based scheme for QS. We show that, for a general class of unitary families of encoding, $\mathscr{R}$⁡(θ) can be fully characterized by only measuring the system response at 2⁢n+1 parameters. This allows us to infer the value of an unknown parameter given the measured response, as well as to determine the sensitivity of the scheme, which characterizes its overall performance. We show that inference error is, with high probability, smaller than δ, if one measures the system response with a number of shots that scales only as Ω⁢(log 3 ⁡(n)/δ 2 ). Furthermore, the framework presented can be broadly applied as it remains valid for arbitrary probe states and measurement schemes, and, even holds in the presence of quantum noise. We also discuss how to extend our results beyond unitary families. Finally, to showcase our method we implement it for a QS task on real quantum hardware, and in numerical simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Real-time jitter correction in a photonic analog-to-digital converter

A real-time jitter meter is used to measure and digitally sample the pulse-to-pulse timing error in a laser pulse train. The jitter meter is self-referenced using a single-pulse delay line interferometer and measures timing jitter using optical heterodyne detection between two frequency channels of the pulse train. Jitter sensitivity down to 3×10 -10 fs 2 /Hz at 500 MHz has been demonstrated with a pulse-to-pulse noise floor of 1.6 fs. Furthermore, as a proof of principle, the digital correction of the output of a high-frequency photonic analog-to-digital converter (PADC) is demonstrated with an emulated jitter signal. Up to 23 dB of jitter correction, down to the noise floor of the PADC, is accomplished with radio-frequency modulation up to 40 GHz.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

An overview of wind-energy-production prediction bias, losses, and uncertainties

Abstract. The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the reported average energy prediction bias is declining. Herein, we present a literature review of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary of how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the article.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Travel Energy Consumption Uncertainty Based on Inferred Travel Mode and Sensed Travel Length

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 8%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Single Bimodular Sensor for Differentiated Detection of Multiple Oxidative Gases

Semiconductive metal-oxide sensors suffer from cross-sensitivities under mixed chemical condition, specifically upon mixture of multiple oxidative or reductive gases. Herein, a single bimodular sensor is demonstrated for smart differentiation of multiple oxidative analytes by relating the resistance-metric mode to impedance-metric mode. The sensor construct based on ZnO nanorods readily outputs three response datasets upon exposure of oxidative-gas mixture including O 2 , SO 2 , and NO 2 , the resistance, real part impedance, and imaginary part impedance. The differentiative and correlated nature between these response signals allows such a single sensor platform to differentiate these oxidative gases accurately and robustly. Linear and non-linear decision boundaries are established over a large gas-concentration range from 2 ppm to 3% through a combination of principal component analysis and artificial neural network training. A facile user interface is demonstrated for recognition and measurement of unknown gas analytes, with the error of the predicted analyte-concentration as low as 2%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗