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At least 595 records · Page 33

Statistical properties of sites visited by independent random walks

The set of visited sites and the number of visited sites are two basic properties of the random walk trajectory. Here, we consider two independent random walks on hyper-cubic lattices and study ordering probabilities associated with these characteristics. The first is the probability that during the time interval (0, t), the number of sites visited by a walker never exceeds that of another walker. The second is the probability that the sites visited by a walker remain a subset of the sites visited by another walker. Using numerical simulations, we investigate the leading asymptotic behaviors of the ordering probabilities in spatial dimensions d = 1, 2, 3, 4. We also study the time evolution of the number of ties between the number of visited sites. We show analytically that the average number of ties increases as a 1 ln t with a 1 = 0.970 508 in one dimension and as (ln t) 2 in two dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Skyrmion pinball and directed motion on obstacle arrays

Abstract We examine skyrmions interacting with a square array of obstacles under ac drives applied in one or two directions. For a single direction of ac driving, we find that the Magnus force in conjunction with the obstacle interactions can create elliptical skyrmion orbits of increasing size, leading to localized phases, chaotic phases, and translating or ratcheting orbits. Under two ac drives that are out of phase by 90° and applied in two directions, the skyrmions form localized commensurate orbits that encircle an integer number of obstacles, similar to the electron pinball effect observed for electrons in antidot lattices. As a function of ac amplitude, Magnus force strength, and obstacle size, we find that chaotic scattering regimes and directed motion can emerge even in the absence of asymmetry in the substrate. The directed motion follows different symmetry axes of the periodic substrate, and we observe a variety of reversed ratchet effects. The Magnus force in the skyrmion system produces a significantly larger number of directed motion regimes than are exhibited by overdamped systems. We discuss how these results could be used to move skyrmions in a controlled way for possible applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scalable edge clustering of dynamic graphs via weighted line graphs

Timestamped relational datasets consisting of records (or connections) between pairs of entities are ubiquitous in network science. For applications like peer-to-peer communication, email, various social network interactions, and computer network security, it is useful to organize these records into groups based on how and when they are occurring. Weighted line graphs offer a natural way to model how records are related in such datasets but for large real-world graph topologies, building and utilizing the line graph is prohibitively expensive. Here, we present the framework to cluster the edges of a dynamic graph via the associated line graph that contains two major contributions. The first is a method to work with the line graph implicitly and the second is a distributed scale implementation of an agglomerative hierarchical graph clustering algorithm. We outline a novel hierarchical dynamic graph edge clustering approach that efficiently breaks massive relational datasets into small sets of edges containing events at various timescales. This is in stark contrast to traditional graph clustering algorithms that prioritize highly connected (clique-like) community structures. Our approach relies on constructing a sufficient subgraph of a weighted line graph and applying a hierarchical agglomerative clustering. This approach is related to scalable techniques from spatial clustering, nonlinear-dimension reduction, topological data analysis, and draws particular inspiration from HDBSCAN. As an edge clustering, this method yields an overlapping node clustering. Our algorithm is parallelizable and we demonstrate efficient clustering of a billion-scale, real-world dynamic graph into small edge sets that correlate in topology and time. The entire clustering process for a graph with tens of billions of edges takes just a few minutes of run time on 256 nodes of a distributed compute environment. We argue how the output of the edge clustering is useful for a multitude of data visualization and powerful machine learning tasks, both involving the original massive dynamic graph data and metadata associated with the nodes and edges. Finally, we describe how this approach can be extended to dynamic hypergraphs and dynamic graphs/hypergraphs with unstructured data living on vertices and edges.

Data Analysis↗

Measurement and memory in the periodically driven complex Ginzburg-Landau equation

In the present work we illustrate that classical but nonlinear systems may possess features reminiscent of quantum ones, such as memory, upon suitable external perturbation. As our prototypical example, we use the two-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equation in its vortex glass regime. Here, we impose an external drive as a perturbation mimicking a quantum measurement protocol, with a given “measurement rate” (the rate of repetition of the drive) and “mixing rate” (characterized by the intensity of the drive). Using a variety of measures, we find that the system may or may not retain its coherence, statistically retrieving its original glass state, depending on the strength and periodicity of the perturbing field. The corresponding parametric regimes and the associated energy cascade mechanisms involving the dynamics of vortex waveforms and domain boundaries are discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Security proof of practical quantum key distribution with detection-efficiency mismatch

Quantum key distribution (QKD) protocols with threshold detectors are driving high-performance QKD demonstrations. The corresponding security proofs usually assume that all physical detectors have the same detection efficiency. However, the efficiencies of the detectors used in practice might show a mismatch depending on the manufacturing and setup of these detectors. A mismatch can also be induced as the different spatial-temporal modes of an incoming signal might couple differently to a detector. Here we develop a method that allows to provide security proofs without the usual assumption. Our method can take the detection-efficiency mismatch into account without having to restrict the attack strategy of the adversary. Especially, we do not rely on any photon-number cutoff of incoming signals such that our security proof is directly applicable to practical situations. We illustrate our method for a receiver that is designed for polarization encoding and is sensitive to a number of spatial-temporal modes. In our detector model, the absence of quantum interference between any pair of spatial-temporal modes is assumed. For a QKD protocol with this detector model, we can perform a security proof with characterized efficiency mismatch and without photon-number cutoff assumption. Our method also shows that in the absence of efficiency mismatch in our detector model, the key rate increases if the loss due to detection inefficiency is assumed to be outside of the adversary's control, as compared to the view where for a security proof this loss is attributed to the action of the adversary.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Insights From the Software Design of a Multiphysics Multicomponent Scientific Code

Using simulations for scientific discovery requires that the software used in the simulations undergoes a rigorous design and development process similar to that of the lab instruments in the experimental sciences. To devise a good design methodology, it is critical to understand the requirements, constraints, and challenges. Furthermore, this article describes insights from the long-term stewardship of a multiphysics multicomponent software, FLASH, that was designed more than 20 years ago for astrophysics, now serves multiple communities, and has been successful in adapting to the changing world of high-performance computing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Global minimization via classical tunneling assisted by collective force field formation

Simple elements interacting in networks can give rise to intricate emergent behaviors. Examples such as synchronization and phase transitions often apply in many contexts, as many different systems may reduce to the same effective model. Here, we demonstrate such a behavior in a model inspired by memristors. When weakly driven, the system is described by movement in an effective potential, but when strongly driven, instabilities cause escapes from local minima, which can be interpreted as an unstable tunneling mechanism. We dub this collective and nonperturbative effect a “Lyapunov force,” which steers the system toward the global minimum of the potential function, even if the full system has a constellation of equilibrium points growing exponentially with the system size. This mechanism is appealing for its physical relevance in nanoscale physics and for its possible applications in optimization, Monte Carlo schemes, and machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Multi-Armed Bayesian Ordinal Outcome Utility-Based Sequential Trial with a Pairwise Null Clustering Prior

A multi-armed trial based on ordinal outcomes is proposed that leverages a flexible non-proportional odds cumulative logit model and numerical utility scores for each outcome to determine treatment optimality. This trial design uses a Bayesian clustering prior on the treatment effects that encourages the pairwise null hypothesis of no differences between treatments. A group sequential design is proposed to determine which treatments are clinically different with an adaptive decision boundary that becomes more aggressive as the sample size or clinical significance grows, or the number of active treatments decreases. A simulation study is conducted for 3 and 5 treatment arms, which shows that the design has superior operating characteristics (family wise error rate, generalized power, average sample size) compared to utility designs that do not allow clustering, a frequentist proportional odds model, or a permutation test based on empirical mean utilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Whirlwind History of Cryptography

This presentation provides an overview of cryptography starting with the Spartan Scytale used extensively during the Peloponnesian wars up through present day. Cryptography and cryptanalysis developed side by side in arms race. Algorithm development stagnated pending cracking. Once a method of crypto was cracked, development took off. Cryptography and cryptanalysis drove developments in math, linguistics, information theory, and quantum theory, and pushed development of the first computers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An unstructured C-grid type variational formulation for the sea ice dynamics

Historically, B-grid formulations of sea ice dynamics have been dominant because they have matched the grid type used by ocean models. The reason for the grid match is simple – it facilitates penetration of the curl of ice-ocean stress into the deep ocean with minimal numerical diffusivity because sea ice and ocean velocity are co-located. In recent years, as ocean models have increasingly progressed to C-grids, sea ice models have followed suit on quadrilateral meshes, but the implementation of an unstructured C-grid sea ice models is new. We present an unstructured C-grid discretization of the Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) rheology, where the velocity unknowns are discretized at the edges of the mesh cells with n-sides, where typically n is greater than or equal to four, rather than at the vertices, as in the B-grid. Our framework of choice is the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) within E3SM, the climate model of the U.S. Department of Energy, although our approach is general and could be applied to other models as well. While MPAS-Seaice is currently defined on a B-grid, MPAS-Ocean runs on a C-grid, hence interpolation operators are heavily used when coupled simulations are performed. In this work, we describe a mathematical formulation to transition the dynamics of MPAS-Seaice to a C-grid, in order to ultimately facilitate the coupling with MPAS-Ocean and reduce numerical errors associated with this communication. Numerical results are reported to highlight the features of the method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Workshop on Manufacturing and Integration Challenges for Analog and Neuromorphic Computing

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) held its third virtual workshop on Semiconductor R&D for Energy Efficiency on August 11-13, 2021. This public workshop – titled “Manufacturing and Integration Challenges for Analog and Neuromorphic Computing” – brought together more than 180 leading scientific and technical experts to identify challenges and opportunities to improve manufacturing capabilities for analog and neuromorphic computing architectures to significantly increase energy efficiency of microelectronic devices. The workshop featured perspectives of researchers from national laboratories, universities, government agencies, and industry with expertise in novel and emerging devices, processes, and metrology and characterization. This workshop is intended to inform an AMO research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) plan to significantly reduce semiconductor energy use by 2030. It was co-sponsored by the Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC) and the DOE Office of Science’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗