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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive changes in sexual behavior in the high–risk population in response to human monkeypox transmission in Canada can help control the outbreak: Insights from a two–group, two–route epidemic model

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease, is emerging as a potential sexually transmitted infection/disease, with underlying transmission mechanisms still unclear. We devised a risk-structured, compartmental model, incorporating sexual behavior dynamics. We compared different strategies targeting the high-risk population: a scenario of control policies geared toward the use of condoms and/or sexual abstinence (robust control strategy) with risk compensation behavior change, and a scenario of control strategies with behavior change in response to the doubling rate (adaptive control strategy). Monkeypox's basic reproduction number is 1.464, 0.0066, and 1.461 in the high-risk, low-risk, and total populations, respectively, with the high-risk group being the major driver of monkeypox spread. Policies imposing condom use or sexual abstinence need to achieve a 35% minimum compliance rate to stop further transmission, while a combination of both can curb the spread with 10% compliance to abstinence and 25% to condom use. With risk compensation, the only option is to impose sexual abstinence by at least 35%. Adaptive control is more effective than robust control where the daily sexual contact number is reduced proportionally and remains constant thereafter, shortening the time to epidemic peak, lowering its size, facilitating disease attenuation, and playing a key role in controlling the current outbreak.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deterministic modeling of hybrid nonlinear effects in epsilon-near-zero thin films

In nonlinear optics, significant effort is concentrated on improving the strength and efficiency of interactions; however, experimentally investigating nonlinear materials is a complex, time-consuming, and costly investment. Moreover, it is often challenging to isolate, study, and optimize material parameters in an experiment due to complexities in the growth process. Recently, epsilon-near-zero materials have received a great deal of attention as promising nonlinear optical materials, but like many up-and-coming materials, the ability to explore and optimize their properties has been challenging. Here, we establish a framework to rapidly evaluate the performance of nonlinear epsilon-near-zero materials for both inter- and intraband effects in silico, requiring only an energy-momentum (E-k) diagram, linear optical properties, and experimental conditions. Measured nonlinear reflection and transmission in gallium-doped zinc oxide films are compared to the numerical framework for both intra- and interband excitation to verify accuracy across wavelength and irradiance while two figures of merit (FoMs) are introduced to quickly evaluate the performance of films without a full numerical framework. This capability is used to predict the performance of highly doped gallium nitride, cadmium oxide, zinc oxide, and indium tin oxide films, and efficient intra- and interband operation conditions are identified. Through this numerical framework and the FoMs, the exploration of unstudied epsilon-near-zero materials is enabled without the need for a nonlinear experiment, thereby accelerating the search for more efficient nonlinear materials and excitation conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A phase transition for finding needles in nonlinear haystacks with LASSO artificial neural networks

To fit sparse linear associations, a LASSO sparsity inducing penalty with a single hyperparameter provably allows to recover the important features (needles) with high probability in certain regimes even if the sample size is smaller than the dimension of the input vector (haystack). More recently learners known as artificial neural networks (ANN) have shown great successes in many machine learning tasks, in particular fitting nonlinear associations. Small learning rate, stochastic gradient descent algorithm and large training set help to cope with the explosion in the number of parameters present in deep neural networks. Yet few ANN learners have been developed and studied to find needles in nonlinear haystacks. Driven by a single hyperparameter, our ANN learner, like for sparse linear associations, exhibits a phase transition in the probability of retrieving the needles, which we do not observe with other ANN learners. To select our penalty parameter, we generalize the universal threshold of Donoho and Johnstone (Biometrika 81(3):425–455, 1994) which is a better rule than the conservative (too many false detections) and expensive cross-validation. In the spirit of simulated annealing, we propose a warm-start sparsity inducing algorithm to solve the high-dimensional, non-convex and non-differentiable optimization problem. We perform simulated and real data Monte Carlo experiments to quantify the effectiveness of our approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Piecewise linear approximation with minimum number of linear segments and minimum error: A fast approach to tighten and warm start the hierarchical mixed integer formulation

In several areas of economics and engineering, it is often necessary to fit discrete data points or approximate nonlinear functions with continuous functions. Piecewise linear (PWL) functions are a convenient way to achieve this. PWL functions can be modeled in mathematical problems using only linear and integer variables. Moreover, there is a computational benefit in using PWL functions that have the least possible number of segments. This work proposes a novel hierarchical mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation that identifies a continuous PWL approximation with minimum number of linear segments for a given target maximum error. The proposed MILP formulation also identifies the solution with the least maximum error among the solutions with minimum number of segments. Then, this work proposes a fast iterative algorithm that identifies non necessarily continuous PWL approximations by solving O(S log N) linear programming (LP) problems, where N is the number of data points and S is the minimum number of segments in the non necessarily continuous case. This work demonstrates that tight bounds for the MILP problem can be derived from these approximations. Next, a fast algorithm is introduced to transform a non necessarily continuous PWL approximation into a continuous one. Finally, the tight bounds and the continuous PWL approximations are used to tighten and warm start the MILP problem. The tightened formulation is shown in experimental results to be more efficient, especially for large data sets, with a solution time that is up to two orders of magnitude less than the existing literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of various parameters of different porous transport layers in proton exchange membrane water electrolysis

Porous transport layers (PTLs) play an important role in proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) cells. The PTL facilitates water and gas transport, as well as thermal and electrical conduction, and is required to sustain good contact with adjacent components. It is expected that using PTLs with variations in material properties such as structure, composition, thickness and wettability results in performance changes of the PEMWE. Here, a general mathematical PEMWE model is developed that separates and analyzes the contributions of ohmic, activation, diffusion and Nernst potentials. For model validation, three inherently different anode PTL structures (carbon paper, sintered titanium particles, and titanium felt) are operated over a range of conditions. Additionally, the effects of PTL wettability were used to verify the model using Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) treated Toray papers with PTFE loading ranging from 0% to 20%. The modeling results of both PTFE treated and untreated materials show good agreement with the experimental data. Mass transport or diffusion loss is the primary reason for performance differences between PTFE treated and untreated PTLs. Sintered titanium PTLs with thicknesses above 1 mm suffer from up to 33% increased ohmic losses without indicating any obvious changes in activation and diffusion losses when compared to untreated PTLs. The losses of the cell increase when using PTFE treated Toray paper. Individual contributions are quantified and assigned to increased ohmic, activation, and diffusion losses. In conclusion, the proposed model offers insights into the overpotential contributions of a PEMWE. It is a useful tool for predicting performance of various PTL materials and can be applied for PTL development and optimization efforts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing Building Energy Modeling with Large Language Models: Exploration and Case Studies

The rapid progression in artificial intelligence has facilitated the emergence of large language models like ChatGPT, offering potential applications extending into specialized engineering modeling, especially physics-based building energy modeling. This paper investigates the innovative integration of large language models with building energy modeling software, focusing specifically on the fusion of ChatGPT with EnergyPlus. A literature review is first conducted to reveal a growing trend of incorporating large language models in engineering modeling, albeit limited research on their application in building energy modeling. We underscore the potential of large language models in addressing building energy modeling challenges and outline potential applications including simulation input generation, simulation output analysis and visualization, conducting error analysis, co-simulation, simulation knowledge extraction and training, and simulation optimization. Three case studies reveal the transformative potential of large language models in automating and optimizing building energy modeling tasks, underscoring the pivotal role of artificial intelligence in advancing sustainable building practices and energy efficiency. The case studies demonstrate that selecting the right large language model techniques is essential to enhance performance and reduce engineering efforts. The findings advocate a multidisciplinary approach in future artificial intelligence research, with implications extending beyond building energy modeling to other specialized engineering modeling.

building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

A novel green hydrogen production using water-energy nexus framework

The transformation of electrical energy to hydrogen via water electrolysis consumes considerable amount of fresh water and a productive use of nontraditional water sources enhances the reliability and resilience of energy and water systems. In this study, we have designed a solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) system which is an evolving hydrogen production technology at high temperatures for water electrolysis. Here, the SOEC uses steam generated from flue gas as its feedstock and is fully integrated with numerous power production units, including coal and natural gas-fired power plants as its energy feedstock. While there is a hasten global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its asset into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. But high capital expenditures and doubt concerning the future cost and efficiency upgrade are obstacles to investing in water electrolysis. Such a detailed Levelized cost of hydrogen and techno-economic analysis is conducted to show the viability and environmental impacts of this novel technology. The results show SOEC efficiency of 97.4 % and 56.3 % as thermal-to-hydrogen efficiency of the system with a daily hydrogen production of 242,400 kg at $2.9–3.5/kg H 2 . The estimates show a positive gain prospect in this technology and techno-economic challenges.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Foundation Models for the Electric Power Grid

Foundation models (FMs) currently dominate news headlines. They employ advanced deep learning architectures to extract structural information autonomously from vast datasets through self-supervision. The resulting rich representations of complex systems and dynamics can be applied to many downstream applications. Therefore, advances in FMs can find uses in electric power grids, challenged by the energy transition and climate change. This paper calls for the development of FMs for electric grids. We highlight their strengths and weaknesses amidst the challenges of a changing grid. It is argued that FMs learning from diverse grid data and topologies, which we call grid foundation models (GridFMs), could unlock transformative capabilities, pioneering a new approach to leveraging AI to redefine how we manage complexity and uncertainty in the electric grid. Finally, we discuss a practical implementation pathway and road map of a GridFM-v0, a first GridFM for power flow applications based on graph neural networks, and explore how various downstream use cases will benefit from this model and future GridFMs.

AI-based power flow simulation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structural conserved moiety splitting of a stoichiometric matrix

Characterising biochemical reaction network structure in mathematical terms enables the inference of functional biochemical consequences from network structure with existing mathematical techniques and spurs the development of new mathematics that exploits the peculiarities of biochemical network structure. The structure of a biochemical network may be specified by reaction stoichiometry, that is, the relative quantities of each molecule produced and consumed in each reaction of the network. A biochemical network may also be specified at a higher level of resolution in terms of the internal structure of each molecule and how molecular structures are transformed by each reaction in a network. The stoichiometry for a set of reactions can be compiled into a stoichiometric matrix N ϵ Z mxn where each row corresponds to a molecule and each column corresponds to a reaction. We demonstrate that a stoichiometric matrix may be split into the sum of m - rank(N) moiety transition matrices, each of which corresponds to a subnetwork accessible to a structurally identifiable conserved moiety. The existence of this moiety matrix splitting is a property that distinguishes a stoichiometric matrix from an arbitrary rectangular matrix.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Variation in the Number of Donors in Quantum Dots Created Using Atomic Precision Advanced Manufacturing

Atomic-precision advanced manufacturing enables unique silicon quantum electronics built on quantum dots fabricated from small numbers of phosphorus dopants. The number of dopant atoms comprising a dot plays a central role in determining the behavior of charge and spin confined to the dots and thus overall device performance. Here in this work, we use both theoretical and experimental techniques to explore the combined impact of lithographic variation and stochastic kinetics on the number of P incorporations in quantum dots made using these techniques and how this variation changes as a function of the size of the dot. Using a kinetic model of PH3 dissociation augmented with novel reaction barriers, we demonstrate that for a 2 × 3 silicon dimer window the probability that no donor incorporates goes to zero, allowing for certainty in the placement of at least one donor. However, this still comes with some uncertainty in the precise number of incorporated donors (either one or two), and this variability may still impact certain applications. We also examine the impact of the size of the initial lithographic window, finding that the incorporation fraction saturates to δ-layer-like coverage as the circumference-to-area ratio decreases. We predict that this incorporation fraction depends strongly on the dosage of the precursor and that the standard deviation of the number of incorporations scales as ~√n, as would be expected for a sequence of largely independent incorporation events. Finally, we characterize an array of 36 experimentally prepared multidonor 3 × 3 nm lithographic windows with scanning tunneling microscopy, measuring the fidelity of the lithography to the desired array and the final location of PH x fragments within these lithographic windows. We use our kinetic model to examine the expected variability due to the observed lithographic error, predicting a negligible impact on incorporation statistics. We find good agreement between our model and the inferred incorporation locations in these windows from scanning tunneling microscope measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soliton-Dependent Electronic Transport across Bilayer Graphene Domain Wall

Layer-stacking domain wall in bilayer graphene is one type of topological defects that can greatly affect the electronic properties of bilayer graphene and therefore lead to nontrivial transport behaviors. An outstanding question on the layer stacking domain wall is how the electrons hop between two adjacent stacking domains. Here we report the first experimental observation of electronic transport across bilayer graphene domain walls by combining near-field infrared nanoscopy and scanning voltage microscopy techniques. In this work, we observe markedly different electron transport behaviors across the tensile- and shear-type domain walls. The tensile-type domain wall is highly reflective of low-energy incident electrons, but becomes more transparent when the electron density and the Fermi energy are increased by electrostatic gating. In contrast, the shear-type domain wall is always highly transparent at different gate voltages. Such soliton-dependent electronic transport can open up new routes to engineer novel nanoelectronic devices based on layer-stacking domain walls in bilayer graphene.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergence of Orchestrated and Dynamic Metabolism of Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Microbial metabolism is a fundamental cellular process that involves many biochemical events and is distinguished by its emergent properties. While the molecular details of individual reactions have been increasingly elucidated, it is not well understood how these reactions are quantitatively orchestrated to produce collective cellular behaviors. Here we developed a coarse-grained, systems, and dynamic mathematical framework, which integrates metabolic reactions with signal transduction and gene regulation to dissect the emergent metabolic traits of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our framework mechanistically captures a set of characteristic cellular behaviors, including the Crabtree effect, diauxic shift, diauxic lag time, and differential growth under nutrient-altered environments. It also allows modular expansion for zooming in on specific pathways for detailed metabolic profiles. Furthermore, this study provides a systems mathematical framework for yeast metabolic behaviors, providing insights into yeast physiology and metabolic engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting stress response and improved protein overproduction in Bacillus subtilis

Abstract Bacillus subtilis is a well-characterized microorganism and a model for the study of Gram-positive bacteria. The bacterium can produce proteins at high densities and yields, which has made it valuable for industrial bioproduction. Like other cell factories, metabolic modeling of B. subtilis has discovered ways to optimize its metabolism toward various applications. The first genome-scale metabolic model (M-model) of B. subtilis was published more than a decade ago and has been applied extensively to understand metabolism, to predict growth phenotypes, and served as a template to reconstruct models for other Gram-positive bacteria. However, M-models are ill-suited to simulate the production and secretion of proteins as well as their proteomic response to stress. Thus, a new generation of metabolic models, known as metabolism and gene expression models (ME-models), has been initiated. Here, we describe the reconstruction and validation of a ME model of B. subtilis , i JT964-ME. This model achieved higher performance scores on the prediction of gene essentiality as compared to the M-model. We successfully validated the model by integrating physiological and omics data associated with gene expression responses to ethanol and salt stress. The model further identified the mechanism by which tryptophan synthesis is upregulated under ethanol stress. Further, we employed i JT964-ME to predict amylase production rates under two different growth conditions. We analyzed these flux distributions and identified key metabolic pathways that permitted the increase in amylase production. Models like i JT964-ME enable the study of proteomic response to stress and the illustrate the potential for optimizing protein production in bacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗