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DOE OSTI2022

Special Issue: Geostatistics and Machine Learning

Abstract Recent years have seen a steady growth in the number of papers that apply machine learning methods to problems in the earth sciences. Although they have different origins, machine learning and geostatistics share concepts and methods. For example, the kriging formalism can be cast in the machine learning framework of Gaussian process regression. Machine learning, with its focus on algorithms and ability to seek, identify, and exploit hidden structures in big data sets, is providing new tools for exploration and prediction in the earth sciences. Geostatistics, on the other hand, offers interpretable models of spatial (and spatiotemporal) dependence. This special issue on Geostatistics and Machine Learning aims to investigate applications of machine learning methods as well as hybrid approaches combining machine learning and geostatistics which advance our understanding and predictive ability of spatial processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

GMFOLD: Subgraph matching for high-throughput DNA-aptamer secondary structure classification and machine learning interpretability

Aptamers are oligonucleotide receptors that bind to their targets with high affinity. Here, we consider aptamers comprised of single-stranded DNA that undergo target-binding-induced conformational changes, giving rise to unique secondary and tertiary structures. Given a specific aptamer primary sequence, there are well-established computational tools (notably mfold) to predict the secondary structure via free energy minimization algorithms. While mfold generates secondary structures for individual sequences, there is a need for a high-throughput process whereby thousands of DNA structures can be predicted in real-time for use in an interactive setting, when combined with aptamer selections that generate candidate pools that are too large to be experimentally interrogated. We developed a new Python code for high-throughput aptamer secondary structure determination (GMfold). GMfold uses subgraph matching methods to group aptamer candidates by secondary structure similarities. We also improve an open-source code, SeqFold, to incorporate subgraph matching concepts. We represent each secondary structure as a lowest-energy bipartite subgraph matching of the DNA graph to itself. These new tools enable thousands of DNA sequences to be compared based on their secondary structures, using machine-learning algorithms. This process is advantageous when analyzing sequences that arise from aptamer selections via systematic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment (SELEX). This work is a building block for future machine-learning-informed DNA-aptamer selection processes to identify aptamers with improved target affinity and selectivity and advance aptamer biosensors and therapeutics.

Aptamer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bifunctional Electrocatalysts with High-Entropy Alloys: Bridging Hydrogen Evolution and Oxygen Reduction

High-entropy alloys (HEAs) have emerged as a promising class of bifunctional electrocatalysts capable of simultaneously driving the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) and the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) with high activity and durability. Their near-equiatomic multicomponent compositions give rise to unique physicochemical characteristics, including lattice distortion, sluggish diffusion, high-entropy stabilization, and pronounced electronic heterogeneity, that collectively generate diverse and synergistic active sites inaccessible in conventional alloys. This review summarizes recent progress in HEA-based bifunctional electrocatalysis, with a focus on the fundamental mechanisms governing HER and ORR activity, stability, and selectivity. We discuss advances in synthesis strategies, ranging from confined growth and step-alloying to scalable continuous-flow methods, that enable precise control over composition, size, and surface structure. Complementary computational and data-driven approaches, including density functional theory, machine-learning-assisted screening, and descriptor development, are highlighted as essential tools for navigating the vast HEA design space and establishing structure−property relationships. Particular attention is paid to adsorption-energy distributions, multisite cooperativity, and environmental effects under realistic electrochemical conditions. Finally, we outline current challenges and future opportunities for integrating mechanistic understanding with AI-guided, closed-loop design frameworks to accelerate the discovery of next-generation HEA bifunctional electrocatalysts for sustainable energy conversion.

Alloys↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Automated discovery of a robust interatomic potential for aluminum

Machine learning, trained on quantum mechanics (QM) calculations, is a powerful tool for modeling potential energy surfaces. A critical factor is the quality and diversity of the training dataset. Here we present a highly automated approach to dataset construction and demonstrate the method by building a potential for elemental aluminum (ANI-Al). In our active learning scheme, the ML potential under development is used to drive non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations with time-varying applied temperatures. Whenever a configuration is reached for which the ML uncertainty is large, new QM data is collected. The ML model is periodically retrained on all available QM data. The final ANI-Al potential makes very accurate predictions of radial distribution function in melt, liquid-solid coexistence curve, and crystal properties such as defect energies and barriers. We perform a 1.3M atom shock simulation and show that ANI-Al force predictions shine in their agreement with new reference DFT calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning potential assisted exploration of complex defect potential energy surfaces

Abstract Atomic-scale defects generated in materials under both equilibrium and irradiation conditions can significantly impact their physical and mechanical properties. Unraveling the energetically most favorable ground-state configurations of these defects is an important step towards the fundamental understanding of their influence on the performance of materials ranging from photovoltaics to advanced nuclear fuels. Here, using fluorite-structured thorium dioxide (ThO 2 ) as an exemplar, we demonstrate how density functional theory and machine learning interatomic potential can be synergistically combined into a powerful tool that enables exhaustive exploration of the large configuration spaces of small point defect clusters. Our study leads to several unexpected discoveries, including defect polymorphism and ground-state structures that defy our physical intuitions. Possible physical origins of these unexpected findings are elucidated using a local cluster expansion model developed in this work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Active learning of ternary alloy structures and energies

Abstract Machine learning models with uncertainty quantification have recently emerged as attractive tools to accelerate the navigation of catalyst design spaces in a data-efficient manner. Here, we combine active learning with a dropout graph convolutional network (dGCN) as a surrogate model to explore the complex materials space of high-entropy alloys (HEAs). We train the dGCN on the formation energies of disordered binary alloy structures in the Pd-Pt-Sn ternary alloy system and improve predictions on ternary structures by performing reduced optimization of the formation free energy, the target property that determines HEA stability, over ensembles of ternary structures constructed based on two coordinate systems: (a) a physics-informed ternary composition space, and (b) data-driven coordinates discovered by the Diffusion Maps manifold learning scheme. Both reduced optimization techniques improve predictions of the formation free energy in the ternary alloy space with a significantly reduced number of DFT calculations compared to a high-fidelity model. The physics-based scheme converges to the target property in a manner akin to a depth-first strategy, whereas the data-driven scheme appears more akin to a breadth-first approach. Both sampling schemes, coupled with our acquisition function, successfully exploit a database of DFT-calculated binary alloy structures and energies, augmented with a relatively small number of ternary alloy calculations, to identify stable ternary HEA compositions and structures. This generalized framework can be extended to incorporate more complex bulk and surface structural motifs, and the results demonstrate that significant dimensionality reduction is possible in thermodynamic sampling problems when suitable active learning schemes are employed.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combining chemistry and protein engineering for new-to-nature biocatalysis

Biocatalysis, the application of enzymes to solve synthetic problems of human import, has blossomed into a powerful technology for chemical innovation. In the past decade, a threefold partnership, where nature provides blueprints for enzymatic catalysis, chemists introduce innovative activity modes with abiological substrates, and protein engineers develop new tools and algorithms to tune and improve enzymatic function, has unveiled the frontier of new-to-nature enzyme catalysis. In this Perspective, we highlight examples of interdisciplinary studies, which have helped to expand the scope of biocatalysis, including concepts of enzymatic versatility explored through the lens of biomimicry, to achieve activities and selectivities beyond those currently possible with chemocatalysis. We indicate how modern tools, such as directed evolution, computational protein design and machine learning-based protein engineering methods, have already impacted and will continue to influence enzyme engineering for new abiological transformations. As a result, a sustained collaborative effort across disciplines is anticipated to spur further advances in biocatalysis in the coming years.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of Power Measurements Using Adaptive Filters

With the advent of smart grid concept, Internet of Things (IoT) and the deployment of smart meters, the cyberattack threats on power networks have increased due to the use of communication systems that can be accessed by adversaries. Attackers will have the ability to manipulate the outcomes of smart meters which in turn influence the core application of Energy Management System 9EMS): State Estimation (SE). Bad data analytic tools may fail to detect some attacks into measurements. Meanwhile, Machine Learning (ML) solutions have been proposed for detecting False Data Injection (FDI) attacks. However, there is a lack of ML time-series solutions presented in the state-of-the-art that is yet to be complex. In signal processing, time-series solutions do not only consider the signal, but also the statistics of the signal over time. Therefore, in this paper, a machine learning for time-series solutions is presented as an application to model the measurements of the power grid that are used in SE. The presented model takes into account adaptive linear and non-linear filters: Finite Impulse Response (FIR), and Infinite Impulse Response (IIR). The presented models are implemented and performed on the IEEE-118 bus system. The results indicate the advantage of applying those filters over the state-of-the-art machine learning solutions.

Hamad, Khaled↗

DOE OSTI2021

High Value Opportunities to Advance Automation in Electric Grid Control Rooms

Grid operators and electric utilities are increasingly driven to develop automated processes and introduce decision support tools to reduce cognitive demand on System Operations staff and aid in the operational decision-making process. However, System Operation staff are traditionally hesitant to implement and accept new solutions, automation processes, and tools within the control room. This paper explores high-value opportunities to advance automation in electric grid control rooms for the purpose of improving grid safety, reliability, and resiliency during normal and emergency operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Enabled Wearable Piezoelectric Acoustic Sensor for Real-Time Breast Abnormality Detection

In contemporary society, breast health has become a significant public health concern, particularly among women. According to statistics from the World Health Organization, both the incidence and mortality rates of breast tumors have steadily increased in recent years. Therefore, effective early-stage screening and postoperative monitoring are essential for maintaining breast health. However, conventional clinical diagnostic modalities are typically bulky, operationally complex, and unsuitable for continuous real-time monitoring, which limits their use in portable and everyday health management applications. To address these limitations, this study proposes a machine learning-integrated wearable piezoelectric sensing platform as an auxiliary tool for breast health assessment. The device consists of a PDMS matching layer embedded with flexible silver nanowires, a P(VDF-TrFE) piezoelectric layer, and a multi-channel low-noise signal acquisition circuit. It is capable of acquiring acoustic echo signals from tissue-mimicking environments and automatically evaluating signal validity using a convolutional neural network (CNN). By integrating piezoelectric sensing with deep learning-based signal analysis, the proposed system achieves a signal-to-noise ratio exceeding 70 dB and a real-time classification accuracy above 96% under controlled conditions. These results demonstrate that the platform provides a compact, portable, and intelligent approach for wearable sensing of mechanical heterogeneity and highlight its potential for future development in continuous biomedical monitoring technologies.

He, Shuaitong↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transitioning from Simulation to Reality: Applying Chatter Detection Models to Real-World Machining Data

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, is a critical challenge in high-speed machining operations, affecting tool life, product surface quality, and overall process efficiency. While machine learning models trained on simulated data have shown promise in detecting chatter, their real-world applicability remains uncertain due to discrepancies between simulated and actual machining environments. The primary goal of this study is to bridge the gap between simulation-based machine learning models and real-world applications by developing and validating a Random Forest-based chatter detection system. This research focuses on improving manufacturing efficiency through reliable chatter detection by integrating Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL). The study applies a Random Forest classification model trained on over 140,000 simulated machining datasets, incorporating techniques like Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL) to adapt the model for real-world operational data. The model is validated against 1600 real-world machining datasets, achieving an accuracy of 86.1%, with strong precision and recall scores. The results demonstrate the model’s robustness and potential for practical implementation in industrial settings, highlighting challenges such as sensor noise and variability in machining conditions. This work advances the use of predictive analytics in machining processes, offering a data-driven solution to improve manufacturing efficiency through more reliable chatter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

TPSAS-NF1676L-32493-DND

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) System Engineering Office (SEO) has supported the Open Data Cube (ODC) initiative to provide a data architecture solution that has value to its global users and increases the impact of EO satellite data. ODC is an open-source platform for processing satellite data. We have developed software products and tools around the core ODC that would help users perform machine learning on EO satellite data. The recent United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Agenda provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and for the planet, considering our current situation and helping to create a plan. The core of this agenda is a set of seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which represent an urgent call for action by all countries - both developed and developing - in a global partnership. The CEOS SEO team has recently developed and released a set of innovative Jupyter notebooks addressing UN SDGs 6.6.1 (spatial extents of water-related ecosystems), 11.3.1 (ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate), and 15.3.1 (proportion of land that is degraded over total land area). These notebooks empower users by providing features that will assist with streamlining analysis ready data retrieval, processing, and visualization. We have recently incorporated several machine learning techniques in these notebooks. In this paper, we present the lessons learned from our experience on classifying land using supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques using ODC framework for UN SDGs. We identify the current limitations of ODC to seamlessly support machine learning techniques. We propose features that would help machine learning, specifically within the ODC framework. We propose a thematic indexing/loading of data for both unsupervised learning as well as data annotation/labeling pipeline. Currently, ODC supports machine learning by separating data-management from the analysis process. It works as a mechanism to load cubes of data. ODC does not natively support features that are vital in machine learning such as validation splits, fair/balanced sampling, establishing load size constraints, etc. We believe that our proposed features will empower users by providing features that bring machine learning techniques closed to ODC. Enhancements to ODC to better accommodate machine learning techniques can assist in fulfilling UN SDGs such as 6.3.2, 6.4.2, 6.6.1, 11.3.1, 14.1.1, 15.1.1, 15.3.1, and 15.4.2.

Syed R Rizvi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Ben Phillips↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A NASA Perspective on Quantum AI, Error Correction, and Beyond

Quantum computing is one of the most enticing computational paradigms with the potential to revolutionize diverse areas of future-generation computational systems. While quantum computing hardware has advanced rapidly, from tiny laboratory experiments to quantum chips that can outperform even the largest supercomputers on specialized computational tasks, these noisy-intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) processors are still too small and non-robust to be directly useful for any real-world applications. We discuss the prospects for quantum computing and AI, highlighting advances in algorithms, both near- and longer-term. Quantum error correction is critical to the realization of any such vision. The talk with touch on some recent exciting advanced in quantum error correction, particularly in dynamical codes. The talk will conclude with an example of how the combination of quantum computing and artificial intelligence can help probe fundamental aspect of quantum physics.

quantum optimization algorithms and sampling↗