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At least 595 records · Page 33

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Mixed Waste Landfill Annual Long-Term Monitoring & Maintenance Report (Apr 2015-Mar 2016)

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is a multi-purpose engineering and science laboratory owned by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration. SNL is managed and operated by Sandia Corporation (Sandia), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation. Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM) is located within the boundaries of Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB), southeast of the City of Albuquerque in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. The Mixed Waste Landfill (MWL) is located 4 miles south of SNL/NM central facilities and 5 miles southeast of Albuquerque International Sunport, in the north-central portion of Technical Area (TA)-III. The MWL disposal area comprises 2.6 acres. During operations, the MWL accepted containerized and other low-level radioactive waste and minor amounts of mixed waste from SNL/NM research facilities and off-site DOE and U.S. Department of Defense generators from March 1959 to December 1988. More specific information regarding the MWL inventory and past disposal practices is presented in the MWL Phase 2 RCRA Facility Investigation Report (Peace et al. September 2002) and the extensive MWL Administrative Record.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Robust and resilient coordination of feeders with uncertain distributed energy resources: from real-time control to long-term planning

To enable flexible demand and ensure reliable and economical operation of distribution systems, we present a novel hierarchical scheme that actively coordinates responsive behind-the-meter grid resources, including distributed energy resources (DERs), to reliably manage each unbalanced distribution feeder and exploits the available flexibility to economically optimize the entire network. Each layer of the scheme employs advanced optimization methods at different timescales to ensure that the system operates within both grid and device limits. The hierarchy is validated in a large-scale realistic simulation based on data from the industry. Simulation results show that coordination of flexibility improves both system reliability and economics, and enables greater penetration of solar PV. Discussion is also provided on the practical viability of the required communications and controls to implement the presented scheme within a large DSO.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Retail Rate Projections for Long-Term Electricity System Models

Electricity prices reported in most electricity-system planning studies leave out many price components and do not translate into retail rates, making it difficult to interpret how projected electricity system changes will impact costs to consumers. Full transmission costs are left out of many studies; distribution and administration costs are similarly excluded or highly simplified. Here, we present a detailed bottom-up accounting method for projecting future retail electricity rates in the United States. Making the simplifying assumption that each state is served by an investor-owned utility (IOU), we translate projected generation and transmission capacity and costs from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity-expansion model into IOU balance sheet expenditures, accounting for depreciation, taxes, and the breakdown between operating and capitalized (rate-based) expenses. Distribution, administration, and intra-regional transmission costs are projected forward based on empirical trends over the past decade. Modeled bottom-up electricity rates are compared to historical rates from 2010-2019, and the sensitivity of modeled rates to a range of financing and modeling assumptions is explored. Distribution and administration rate components account for roughly 40% (4.4 ¢/kWh) of the projected national-average retail rate over 2020-2050 under central assumptions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Water and Climate Impacts on ERCOT Long-Term Systems Assessment

Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-Term Thermal Aging Effect Evaluation for Grade 92 and 316L at The LWR Relevant Temperature

Life extension of the existing nuclear reactors imposes accumulated damages, such as higher fluences and longer periods of corrosion, to structural materials, which would result in significant challenges to the traditional reactor materials such as type 304 and 316 stainless steels. Advanced alloys with superior radiation resistance will increase safety margins, design flexibility, and economics for not only the life extension of the existing fleet but also new builds with advanced reactor designs. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) initiated a collaboration with the Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program on the Advanced Radiation Resistant Materials (ARRM) program, focused on developing and test degradation resistant alloys for light water reactor (LWR)- relevant environments. Based on a comprehensive microstructure and property screening, the ARRM program selected a total of five alloys (i.e., Grade 92, 310, 690, 718A, and 725), together with 316L and X-750 as references, for further investigations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Model 9975 O-Ring Fixture Long-Term Leak Performance (FY2022 Status Report)

Leak testing experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton® GLT and GLT-S O-rings used in the model 9975 shipping package has been ongoing since 2004 at Savannah River National Laboratory. Seventy tests using mock-up 9975 primary containment vessels (PCVs) with GLT O-rings were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 °F. Due to material substitution, fourteen tests with GLT-S O-rings were initiated in 2008 and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 °F. The conditioning temperatures are elevated compared to the calculated maximum O-ring temperature in a 9975 package in storage, 158 °F, to accelerate aging and enable observations of O-ring failures in a reasonable time frame. The fixtures are leak tested periodically and all GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 350 °F or above have failed to maintain a leak-tight seal. Eight GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 300 °F have failed after 2.8 to 5.7 years at temperature while the remaining fixtures at 300 °F were retired from testing following more than five years without failure. There has been one GLT O-ring fixture which failed after 13.4 years aging at 200 °F. However, 20 other GLT O-rings aging at 200 °F have remained leak-tight for over 14 years and remain in test. No failures have yet been observed in GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 270 °F for 10.4 years. All GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 300 °F or above have failed their leak test. No failures have yet been observed in GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 250 °F for 12.5 years. This year, one GLT-S O-ring fixture failed after 12.4 years aging at 200 °F. Data from the O-ring fixtures are generally consistent with results from compression stress-relaxation testing, and provide confidence in the predictive models based on those results. However, uncertainty exists in extrapolating these elevated temperature results to the lower temperatures of interest for normal storage in K-Area Complex (KAC). Oxygen consumption testing, which includes results from temperatures near KAC normal storage temperatures, is ongoing to provide further confidence and corroborate these extrapolations. The collective data from these test efforts suggest the minimum O-ring service life at KAC normal storage conditions should be at least 34 years for GLT and GLT-S O-rings. Measurement of compression set in O-rings removed from failed fixtures, compared to that from KAC surveillance O-rings, indicate significant margin remains for O-rings still in service in 9975 packages in KAC. Aging and periodic leak testing will continue for the remaining 25 mock-up PCV fixtures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ageing Management for Extended Long-Term Dry Storage of Spent Nuclear Fuel and Transportation

The principal objectives of the Coordinated Research Project (CRP) and CRADA were to (1) investigate how ageing effects leading to degradation of materials used in the spent fuel dry storage systems could be managed by ageing management programs (AMPs) and (2) using existing AMPs as a basis, establish guidance on how to develop, generate, and maintain AMPs for dry storage systems of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) that can be accomplished in various ways. The PI (Dr. Liu) is an internationally recognized expert on ageing management for license renewal of nuclear power plants and independent spent fuel dry storage installations. Dr. Liu was invited by IAEA to participate in this CRP and served as Chair of the Working Group, supporting the IAEA CRP Lead, with other members from Argentina, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Pakistan, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States of America. Argonne’s scope of work in the CRADA for the CRP included (1) ageing management guidance documents developed by Argonne for DOE and used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry and (2) research leveraged from the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy on the mechanical properties of high-burnup fuel cladding and the ARG-US remote monitoring systems technology developed for the DOE Packaging Certification Program, Office of Packaging and Transportation, Office of Environmental Management.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗