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On the basis of analysis of the occurrence rate of major flares (X-ray class greater than or equal to M3.0), we present evidence that the 51-day periodicity was in operation during the interval from May 4, 1991 to November 15, 1992. This periodicity is noted to be two times 25.5 days, which has been proposed as the fundamental period of the Sun.
An easy-to-use, intuitive computer program was written to satisfy a need of test operators and data requestors to quickly view and manipulate high-frequency test data recorded at the East and West Test Areas at Marshall Space Flight Center. By enabling rapid analysis, this program makes it possible to reduce times between test runs, thereby potentially reducing the overall cost of test operations. The program can be used to perform quick frequency analysis, using multiple fast- Fourier-transform windowing and amplitude options. The program can generate amplitude-versus-time plots with full zoom capabilities, frequency-component plots at specified time intervals, and waterfall plots (plots of spectral intensity versus frequency at successive small time intervals, showing the changing frequency components over time). There are options for printing of the plots and saving plot data as text files that can be imported into other application programs. The program can perform all of the aforementioned plotting and plot-data-handling functions on a relatively inexpensive computer; other software that performs the same functions requires computers with large amounts of power and memory.
This report documents the results of spiral bevel gear rig tests performed under a NASA Space Act Agreement with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to support validation and demonstration of rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) for maintenance credits via FAA Advisory Circular (AC) 29-2C, Section MG-15, Airworthiness Approval of Rotorcraft (HUMS) (Ref. 1). The overarching goal of this work was to determine a method to validate condition indicators in the lab that better represent their response to faults in the field. Using existing in-service helicopter HUMS flight data from faulted spiral bevel gears as a "Case Study," to better understand the differences between both systems, and the availability of the NASA Glenn Spiral Bevel Gear Fatigue Rig, a plan was put in place to design, fabricate and test comparable gear sets with comparable failure modes within the constraints of the test rig. The research objectives of the rig tests were to evaluate the capability of detecting gear surface pitting fatigue and other generated failure modes on spiral bevel gear teeth using gear condition indicators currently used in fielded HUMS. Nineteen final design gear sets were tested. Tables were generated for each test, summarizing the failure modes observed on the gear teeth for each test during each inspection interval and color coded based on damage mode per inspection photos. Gear condition indicators (CI) Figure of Merit 4 (FM4), Root Mean Square (RMS), +/- 1 Sideband Index (SI1) and +/- 3 Sideband Index (SI3) were plotted along with rig operational parameters. Statistical tables of the means and standard deviations were calculated within inspection intervals for each CI. As testing progressed, it became clear that certain condition indicators were more sensitive to a specific component and failure mode. These tests were clustered together for further analysis. Maintenance actions during testing were also documented. Correlation coefficients were calculated between each CI, component, damage state and torque. Results found test rig and gear design, type of fault and data acquisition can affect CI performance. Results found FM4, SI1 and SI3 can be used to detect macro pitting on two more gear or pinion teeth as long as it is detected prior to progressing to other components or transitioning to another failure mode. The sensitivity of RMS to system and operational conditions limit its reliability for systems that are not maintained at steady state. Failure modes that occurred due to scuffing or fretting were challenging to detect with current gear diagnostic tools, since the damage is distributed across all the gear and pinion teeth, smearing the impacting signatures typically used to differentiate between a healthy and damaged tooth contact. This is one of three final reports published on the results of this project. In the second report, damage modes experienced in the field will be mapped to the failure modes created in the test rig. The helicopter CI data will then be re-processed with the same analysis techniques applied to spiral bevel rig test data. In the third report, results from the rig and helicopter data analysis will be correlated. Observations, findings and lessons learned using sub-scale rig failure progression tests to validate helicopter gear condition indicators will be presented.
We present new results on the Eris/Dysnomia system including analysis of new images from the WFC3 instru-ment on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Seven HST orbits were awarded to program 15171 in January and February 2018, with the intervals between observations selected to sample Dysnomia over a full orbital period. Using relative astrometry of Eris and Dysnomia, we computed a best-fit Keplerian orbit for Dysnomia. Based on the Keplerian fit, we find an orbital period of 15.785899±0.000050 days, which is in good agreement with recent work. We report a non-zero eccentricity of 0.0062 at the 6.2-σ level, despite an estimated eccentricity damping timescale of ≤17 Myr. Considering the volumes of both Eris and Dysnomia, the new system density was calculated to be 2.43±0.05 g cm3, a decrease of ~4% from the previous value of 2.52±0.05 g cm3. The new astrometric measurements were high enough precision to break the degeneracy of the orbit pole orientation, and indicate that Dysnomia orbits in a prograde manner. The obliquity of Dysnomia’s orbit pole with respect to the plane of Eris’ heliocentric orbit was calculated to be 78.29±0.65∘ and is in agreement with previous work; the next mutual events season will occur in 2239. The Keplerian orbit fit to all the data considered in this investi-gation can be excluded at the 6.3-σ level, but identifying the cause of the deviation was outside the scope of this work.
Voyager 500-1700 A spectrophotometric observations of the beta Cephei star nu Eri are presented and discussed. The Voyager observations were obtained in 1981 and cover six pulsation cycles of the star. These data are supplemented with a set of nine International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) SWP high-resolution observations covering one, earlier epoch, pulsation cycle. Light curves are derived from the Voyager data at 1055 and 1425 A. These light curves are found to be consistent in both shape and period with published optical curves. The 1055 A light curve also exhibits a phenomenon not seen in the optical curves: a small but highly significant systematic increase in the flux of the maximum light phases while maintaining a constant minimum light level over the interval of observation. Substantially larger errors in the longer wavelength data preclude discussion of this phenomenon in the 1425 A light curve. Examination of the far-UV continuum in nu Eri during this period shows that the color temperature is lower for the brighter maxima. Analysis of the far-UV continuum at maximum and minimum light yields an effective temperature difference between these two phases of 2200 + or - 750 K. Spectroscopically, three prominent features are seen in the Voyager data: a feature at 985 A mostly due to a blend of C III 977 A, H I Ly gamma 972 A, and N III 990 A; a feature at 1030 A due to H I Ly beta 1026 A and C II 1037 A; and the Si IV resonance doublet near 1400 A. A comparison of the 912-1700 A spectral region in nu Eri with a set of standard, i.e., nonpulsating stars, shows that nu Eri closely resembles the standard both in continuum shape and spectral line strengths with the possible exception of a slight flux excess between 912 and 975 A. The equivalent width of the 985 A feature is shown to vary in strength over the pulsation cycle in antiphase with the light curve and variations seen in the C IV 1548-1551 lines from the IUE data. This behavior of the 985 A feature is most likely caused by variations in the strength of the Ly gamma component of the blend. Comparisons are also made between nu Eri and the only other beta Cephei star studied in the far-UV, BW Vul, with the most notable differences between the two stars being the much larger delta(T(sub eff)) for BW Vul and the almost total absence of abnormalities in observed spectrum of nu Eri.
NASA is developing a new capsule-based, crewed vehicle that will land in the ocean, and the space agency desires to reduce the risk of injury from impact during these landings. Because landing impact occurs for each flight and the crew might need to perform egress tasks, current injury assessment reference values (IARV) were deemed insufficient. Because NASCAR occupant restraint systems are more effective than the systems used to determine the current IARVs and are similar to NASA s proposed restraint system, an analysis of NASCAR impacts was performed to develop new IARVs that may be more relevant to NASA s context of vehicle landing operations. Head IARVs associated with race car impacts were investigated by completing a detailed analysis of all of the 2002-2008 NASCAR impact data. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select 4071 impacts from the 4015 recorder files provided (each file could contain multiple impact events). Of the 4071 accepted impacts, 274 were selected for numerical simulation using a custom NASCAR restraint system and Humanetics Hybrid-III 50th percentile numerical dummy model in LS-DYNA. Injury had occurred in 32 of the 274 selected impacts, and 27 of those injuries involved the head. A majority of the head injuries were mild concussions with or without brief loss of consciousness. The 242 non-injury impacts were randomly selected and representative of the range of crash dynamics present in the total set of 4071 impacts. Head dynamics data (head translational acceleration, translational change in velocity, rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, HIC-15, HIC-36, and the Head 3ms clip) were filtered according to SAE J211 specifications and then transformed to a log scale. The probability of head injury was estimated using a separate logistic regression analysis for each log-transformed predictor candidate. Using the log transformation constrains the estimated probability of injury to become negligible as IARVs approach zero. For the parameters head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, HIC-15, and HIC-36, conservative values (in the lower 95% confidence interval) that gave rise to a 5% risk of any injury occurring were estimated as 40.0 G, 7.9 m/s, 2200 rad/s2, 98.4, and 77.4 respectively. Because NASA is interested in the consequence of any particular injury on the ability of the crew to perform egress tasks, the head injuries that occurred in the NASCAR dataset were classified according to a NASA-developed scale (Classes I - III) for operationally relevant injuries, which classifies injuries on the basis of their operational significance. Additional analysis of the data was performed to determine the probability of each injury class occurring, and this was estimated using an ordered probit model. For head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, head rotational velocity, HIC-36, and head 3ms clip, conservative values of IARVs that produced a 5% risk of Class II injury were estimated as 50.7 G, 9.5 m/s, 2863 rad/s2, 11.0 rad/s, 30.3, and 46.4 G respectively. The results indicate that head IARVs developed from the NASCAR dataset may be useful to protect crews during landing impact.
This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.
Ventricular repolarization instability as quantified by the index of QT interval variability (QTVI) is one of the best predictors for risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Because it is difficult to appropriately monitor early signs of organ dysfunction at high altitude, we investigated whether high resolution advanced ECG (HR-ECG) analysis might be helpful as a non-invasive and easy-to-use tool for evaluating the risk of cardiac arrhythmias during exposure to acute hypoxia. 19 non-acclimatized healthy trained alpinists (age 37, 8 plus or minus 4,7 years) participated in the study. Five-minute high-resolution 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded (Cardiosoft) in each subject at rest in the supine position breathing room air and then after breathing 12.5% oxygen for 30 min. For beat-to-beat RR and QT variability, the program of Starc was utilized to derive standard time domain measures such as root mean square of the successive interval difference (rMSSD) of RRV and QTV, the corrected QT interval (QTc) and the QTVI in lead II. Changes were evaluated with paired-samples t-test with p-values less than 0.05 considered statistically significant. As expected, the RR interval and its variability both decreased with increasing altitude, with p = 0.000 and p = 0.005, respectively. Significant increases were found in both the rMSSDQT and the QTVI in lead II, with p = 0.002 and p = 0.003, respectively. There was no change in QTc interval length (p = non significant). QT variability parameters may be useful for evaluating changes in ventricular repolarization caused by hypoxia. These changes might be driven by increases in sympathetic nervous system activity at ventricular level.
Line parameters for the nu(5) and 2nu(9) bands and associated hot bands of HNO3 have been calculated and compared with laboratory spectra, and the results are presented. Spectral intervals near 870/cm for which best agreement was obtained are used to quantitatively analyze HNO3 absorption features in 0.02/cm resolution stratospheric solar absorption spectra.
The author has identified the following significant results. Melting ice has been detected in Lake Erie by comparison of visible and near infrared differential reflectance. This melting condition is confirmed by meteorological ground truth data and concurrent NOAA-2 thermal infrared data. Using near-synchronous ERTS-1 data, it was possible to determine the approximate ground resolution of NOAA-2 very high resolution radiometer by comparing the smallest identifiable ice crack in the imagery and measuring the same crack on the ERTS-1 image. It was determined that photointerpretation and analysis of a single Lake Erie image can, under certain conditions, provide meaningful data on ice dynamics. ERTS-1 imagery is effective for icepack monitoring of the Great Lakes, but the sampling interval of 18 days imposes a severe limitation. Maps of the snow cover in the American River basin for 16 March 1973 have been prepared using all four bands.
The logic and methodology for a preliminary grouping of Spacelab and mixed-cargo payloads is proposed in a form that can be readily coded into a computer program by NASA. The logic developed for this preliminary cargo grouping analysis is summarized. Principal input data include the NASA Payload Model, payload descriptive data, Orbiter and Spacelab capabilities, and NASA guidelines and constraints. The first step in the process is a launch interval selection in which the time interval for payload grouping is identified. Logic flow steps are then taken to group payloads and define flight configurations based on criteria that includes dedication, volume, area, orbital parameters, pointing, g-level, mass, center of gravity, energy, power, and crew time.
SCIFER TECHS observations of the variations in the thermal electron distribution in the 1400-km altitude cleft are associated with periods of intense ion heating and field-aligned currents. Energization of the thermal ion plasma in the mid-altitude cleft occurs within density cavities accompanied by enhanced thermal electron temperatures, large field-aligned thermal electron plasma flows and broadband low-frequency electric fields. Variations in the thermal electron contribution to field-aligned current densities indicate small scale (approximately 100's m) filamentary structure embedded within the ion energization periods. TECHS observations of the field-aligned drift velocities and temperatures of the thermal electron distribution are presented to evaluate the critical velocity thresholds necessary for the generation of electrostatic ion cyclotron and ion acoustic instabilities. This analysis suggests that, during periods of thermal ion energization, sufficient drift exists in the thermal electron distribution to excite the electrostatic ion cyclotron instability. In addition, brief periods exist within the same interval where the drift of the thermal electron distribution is sufficient to marginally excite the ion acoustic instability. In addition, the presence an enhancement in Langmuir emission at the plasma frequency at the center of the ion energization region, accompanied by the emission's second-harmonic, and collocated with observations of high-frequency electric field solitary structures suggest the presence of electron beam driven decay of Langmuir waves to ion acoustic modes as an additional free energy source for ion energization.
For 36 hours during April 1975, an atmospheric variability experiment was conducted. This research effort supported an observational program in which rawinsonde data, radar data, and satellite data were collected from a network of 42 stations east of the Rocky Mountains at intervals of 3 hours. This program presents data with a high degree of time resolution over a spatially and temporally extensive network. Reduction of the experiment data is intended primarily as a documentation of the checking and processing of the data and should be useful to prospective users. Various flow diagrams of the data processing procedures are described, and a complete summary of the formulas used in the data processing is provided. A wind computation scheme designed to extract as much detailed wind information as possible from the unique experiment data set is discussed. The accuracy of the thermodynamic and wind data were estimated. Errors in the thermodynamic and wind data are given.
Using modern satellite (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM, 1998-2014) and reanalysis (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, 1979-2015) data, we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multiyear declines of precipitation in California appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011 and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief from drought, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation during typical versus drying periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multiyear drying events. Storms delivering up to 50% of the precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall. However, these phenomena can be suppressed and even blocked by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific. The reanalysis and satellite data are proven to be reliable to the extent where they yield information on developing conditions and observed precipitation anomalies.
Deviation of path of orbiting body calculated from nominal or reference trajectory
The ability of geosynchronous satellite soundings to analyze a preconvective environment is studied. VAS data of temperature, dewpoint, equivalent potential temperature, precipitation, and lifted index from the central U.S. on July 13, 1981 are derived with 30 km resolution at three hour intervals. It is observed that the VAS retrievals identify mesoscale regions with convective instability, and significant spatial gradients and temporal changes in the thermal and moisture fields are detected. The presence of small clouds degrades the VAS data; however, the study reveals that VAS soundings produce high-resolution spatial and temporal measurements of potential thunderstorm regions.
Maximum probability estimators and conservative confidence interval models for reliability growth problems with debugging phase
A series of high-resolution spectra of the pc-sized nebula around SN1987A are presented. The hollow, 1.7 arcsec-wide nebula has the velocity field of a ring expanding at 10.3 km/s, not that of a limb-brightened spheroid. Fainter nebulosity within 3 arcsec is expanding slightly faster, as indicated by redshifted emission from behind the SN. The geometry of the emission can be used to infer structure, provided that light travel time and recombination delays are accounted for. The analysis sets an upper limit to the velocity of the wind from the progenitor during its red supergiant (RGS) phase, and implies an RSG lifetime of less than 400,000 yr and an interval of about 20,000 yr between the end of the RSG phase and the SN explosion.