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NASA NTRS2021

Altimetry for the Future: Building on 25 Years of Progress

In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the ‘‘Green” Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments’ development and satellite missions’ evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion.

Saleh Abdalla↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical assessment of fault impact on caprock seals during CO 2 sequestration

Coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical analysis of caprock integrity has gained a lot of attention among scientists and researchers investigating the long-term performance of geologic carbon storage systems. Reactivation of pre-existing fractures within the caprock or re-opening of faults can create permeable pathways which can influence the seal integrity. Stability of the caprock during and after injection of super-critical CO 2 , and the impact of pre-existing fractures in the presence or absence of one or multiple faults have been investigated in this study. The impact of the wellbore orientation and the injection rate are among other key factors in understanding the structural trapping mechanisms within such geological formations. In this study, we numerically investigated the impact of each of these factors. This study revealed the interplay between joints and faults and how different leakage pathways are formed and under which scenario they play a dominant role in terms of CO 2 leakage. Finally, this study also highlights the role of one versus multiple faults in the domain and the importance of the fault hydrological property in forming leakage pathway.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Modern Era Retrospective Restrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Data and Services at the GES DISC

The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset is a NASA satellite era, 30 year (1979 - present), reanalysis using the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project, run out of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center, provides the science and application communities with a state-of-the-art global analysis with emphasis on improved estimates of the hydrological cycle over a broad range of weather and climate time scales. MERRA products are generated as a long-term synthesis that places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The MERRA analysis is performed at a horizontal resolution of 2/3 longitude x 1/2 latitude (540x361 global gridpoints) with observational analyses every 6 hours. The MERRA output data will include 3 dimensional state fields for every 6 hourly analysis cycle on 42 pressure levels (or 72 terrain following model coordinate levels) from the surface through the stratosphere. Several data products are specifically designed to support chemistry and stratosphere transport modeling. The 2 dimensional surface and atmospheric diagnostics (numbering 259) are being stored on the native grid at 1 hourly intervals. These include radiation and vertical integrals of the atmosphere for water and energy budget studies and also surface diagnostics where the diurnal cycle is important. The one hourly surface and near surface data product will also facilitate research on the integrated analysis of Earth system observations in the land, ocean and cryosphere. The MERRA products are archived and distributed by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) through its Modeling DISC Web (MDISC) portal. Multiple data access methods and services are available for MERRA data through MDISC: (1) Mirador offers a quick, comprehensive search of MERRA and all GES DISC archived data holdings, allowing searches on keywords, location names or latitude/longitude box, and date/time, with responses within a few seconds. (2) Giovanni is a GES DISC developed Web application that provides data visualization and analysis online. Giovanni features popular visualizations such as latitude-longitude maps, animations, cross sections, profiles, time series, etc. and some basic statistical analysis functions such as scatter plots and correlation coefficient maps. Users are able to download results in several different formats, including Google Earth. (3) On-the-fly parameter subsetting of data within a spatial/temporal window is provided through a simple select and click Web page. (4) MERRA data are also available via OPeNDAP, GrADS Data Server (GDS) and can be converted to netCDF on the fly.

Berrick, Stephen W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Omics into a New Comprehensive Rate Law for Competitive Terminal Electron-Accepting Processes in Reactive Transport Models: Application to N, Fe, S, and Contaminant Transformations in Stream and Wetland Sediments

Surface waters represent important sources of alternate energy and drinking water in the United States, and characterizing the biogeochemical processes that affect surface water quality is relevant to the DOE-BER mission. Sediment biogeochemical processes regulate the release of carbon (C), nutrients, and contaminants to surface waters and thus influence water quality. Sediment biogeochemical processes are dynamic and affected by the deposition and remobilization of solid material and changes in environmental conditions driven by water discharge variations. Wetlands are important natural filters of surface waters which may either trap, metabolize, or mobilize nutrients and contaminants. Despite their importance, biogeochemical processes regulating nutrient and contaminant release and C transformation in stream and wetland sediments cannot be predicted accurately by current mathematical models. These reactive transport models largely rely on detectable changes in geochemical conditions to activate metabolic processes, do not accurately account for the competition between microbial processes, and poorly constrain effects of hydrological perturbations on biogeochemical processes. In this BER-SBR exploratory project, metagenomic and geochemical signatures were combined to identify microbially-mediated redox processes in anaerobic stream and wetland sediments from the Savannah River Site (SRS, ANL SFA) and East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC, ORNL SFA) that play important roles in C, uranium (U), and mercury (Hg) transformations. In addition, sediment incubations were conducted to examine the competition between anaerobic respiration processes Finally, new rate laws were developed for reactive transport models that rely on complementary metagenomic and geochemical signatures to identify the underlying anaerobic microbial processes in stream and wetland sediments, describe the competition between the dominant metabolic processes involved in nutrient release and U and Hg mobilization, and more accurately quantify carbon transformation and the response of microbial processes to changes in redox conditions associated with hydrological forcing. These rate laws were optimized in batch reactors with SRS wetland sediments, where iron and sulfate reduction dominate. Anaerobic carbon remineralization processes followed the expected thermodynamic sequence of microbial respiration with depth in both sediments, except that geochemical signals indicated that sulfate reduction was inactive in EFPC sediments and moderate in SRS wetland sediments. Estimates indicated that microbial iron reduction contributed to at least half of the production of reduced iron in these sediments. Incubations demonstrated that nitrate reduction, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium were active in the natural EFPC sediment and activated upon nitrate amendment in these nitrate-rich sediments. In turn, these processes were outcompeted by the addition of either iron oxides or sulfate as alternative terminal electron acceptors. Although geochemical products of sulfate reduction were not detected in the incubations, the abundance of sulfate reduction genes increased with depth in the sediment and was equally more pronounced in treatments amended with either iron oxides or sulfate. Simultaneously, anaerobic sulfide oxidizing bacteria coupling sulfide oxidation to DNRA (and not conventional denitrification) were apparently enriched over time, regardless of the treatments. These findings indicate that sulfate reduction is important in freshwater stream sediments and probably catalyzed by a cryptic sulfur cycle involving nitrogen species, in which the sulfur products from sulfate reduction are immediately removed by side reactions and not detectable by geochemical measurements alone. Similar experiments in SRS sediments, however, demonstrated little interaction between nitrogen and sulfur cycling microorganisms. Sulfate reduction was impacted by the addition of more thermodynamically favorable electron acceptors, suggesting either that iron-reducing microorganisms outcompeted sulfate-reducing microorganisms for organic substrate, depleting the stock of electron donor available for sulfate reduction, or that the cryptic sulfur cycle was shunted by the precipitation of FeS generated as a result of the abiotic reduction of iron oxides by dissolved sulfide. A diagnostic modeling exercise was conducted to further investigate the competition between terminal electron accepting processes. As conventional kinetic models typically do not account for cryptic cycles and used inaccurate formulations to describe competition between microbial communities, new metabolic rate laws were developed that explicitly express the electron acceptor-specific enzyme of each energetically favorable metabolic process based on gene abundance detected in the incubations. The model was tested with the sediment slurry incubation data to determine whether substrate competition could explain the decrease in sulfate reduction observed in the presence of iron oxide competitor. The model was able to reproduce geochemical concentrations really well in each treatment once the model was calibrated with the unamended control, suggesting that microbial competition was indeed driven by thermodynamic considerations. Overall, carbon remineralization processes and rates will be reproduced much more realistically with the new metabolic rate laws.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Financial Analysis of the Smallmouth Bass Flows implemented at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2024

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specifies criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report presents a financial analysis of the Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) (SMB) flows implemented at GCD during Water Year (WY) 2024. These bypass flows were introduced by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) as an emergency response to the growing threat posed by invasive SMB in the Colorado River ecosystem downstream of the dam. SMB are a non-native predatory species that pose a significant threat to native fish populations, including the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha). The thermal regime below GCD, typically cold due to hypolimnetic releases from Lake Powell, has historically served as a thermal barrier limiting SMB establishment. However, persistently low reservoir levels in recent years have reduced stratification in Lake Powell, allowing warmer water to be released downstream. This has enabled SMB to spawn successfully below the dam, prompting urgent ecological concerns. To mitigate the risk of SMB proliferation, the USBR implemented a series of bypass flows in WY 2024. Drawn from a lower elevation than the penstocks, the bypass structures released cooler water downstream. These short-duration bypass flows aimed to keep temperatures cool enough to prevent SMB from spawning, thereby reducing the ecological threat posed by this invasive species. Although motivated by ecological objectives, these bypass flows came with financial tradeoffs. Releasing water through the bypass structures instead of the turbines at GCD reduced hydropower generation, resulting in a significantly lower financial position for Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), which is responsible for marketing the electricity produced by the GCD Powerplant. This report analyzes the financial impact of the SMB flows implemented from July to November 2024. These experimental releases led to an estimated financial cost of approximately $18.9 million, primarily driven by the substantial volume of water diverted through the bypass structures. This study applies an integrated set of tools to estimate WAPA financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the water operations that actually occurred, including the SMB bypass flows, and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the SMB flows did not occur. Both cases comply with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria, and the monthly water release volumes are assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sulfur Biogeochemical Cycling and Redox Dynamics in a Shale-Dominated Mountainous Watershed

Sulfur (S) is an essential macronutrient and important component of the earth’s crust, and its cycling has critical impacts on trace metal mobility, water quality, and human health. Pyrite weathering is the primary pathway by which sulfur enters surface waters. However, biogeochemical cycling of sulfur in soils and the river corridor mediates sulfate exports. In this study, we identified the major forms of sulfur across multiple compartments and scales in a pristine mountainous watershed, including shale bedrock weathering profiles, hillslope soils, and alluvial floodplain sediments, in order to provide insight into biogeochemical sulfur cycling in a hydrologically variable alpine system. X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) analysis of shale weathering profiles showed clear evidence of pyrite oxidation to sulfate, with large accumulations of intermediate S(0) (20%–53%). Micro-scale XANES showed evidence of reprecipitation of pyrite at fracture surfaces within the permanently saturated zone. Organic sulfur dominated S speciation in shallow hillslope soil and floodplain sediment, with little evidence of reduced inorganic S. However, mackinawite formation, representing active sulfate reduction, was observed in saturated oxbow sediments and saturated weathered shale underlying floodplain sediments. Further evidence of sulfate reduction from aqueous sulfur isotopic analysis was observed in shallow groundwater transects across an Fe-reducing meander, whereas increases in pore water sulfate concentrations implied sulfur oxidation at other locations. Furthermore, the data present an integrated picture of sulfur cycling in a shale-dominated watershed, where riverine sulfate exports are mediated by biological cycling, particularly in redox-stratified and temporally dynamic hyporheic zone sediments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Controls on Variations of Surface Energy, Water, and Carbon Budgets within Large-Scale Amazon Basin

A key research focus of the LBA Research Program is understanding the space-time variations in interlinked surface energy, water, and carbon budgets, the controls on these variations, and the implications of these controls on the carbon sequestering capacity of the large scale forest-pasture system that dominates the Amaz6nia landscape. Quantification of these variations and controls are investigated by a combination of in situ measurements, remotely sensed measurements from space, and a realistically forced hydrometeorological model coupled to a carbon assimilation model, capable of simulating details within the surface energy and water budgets along with the principle processes of photosynthesis and respiration. Herein we describe the results of an investigation concerning the space-time controls of carbon sources and sinks distributed over the large scale Amazon basin. The results are derived from a carbon-water-energy budget retrieval system for the large scale Amazon basin, which uses a coupled carbon assimilation-hydrometeorological model as an integrating system, forced by both in situ meteorological measurements and remotely sensed radiation and precipitation fluxes obtained from a combination of GOES, SSM/I, TOMS, and TRh4M satellite measurements. Results include validation of (a) retrieved surface radiation and precipitation fluxes based on 30-min averaged surface measurements taken at Ji-Parani in Rondania and Manaus in Amazonas, and (b) modeled sensible, latent, and C02 fluxes based on tower measurements taken at Reserva Jaru, Manaus and Fazenda Nossa Senhora. The space-time controls on carbon sequestration are partitioned into sets of factors classified by: (1) above canopy meteorology, (2) incoming surface radiation, (3) precipitation interception, and (4) indigenous stomatal processes varied over the different land covers of pristine rainforest, partially, and fully logged rainforests, and pasture lands. These are the principle meteorological, thermodynamical, hydrological, and biophysical control paths which perturb net carbon fluxes and sequestration, produce time-space switching of carbon sources and sinks, undergo modulation through atmospheric boundary layer feedbacks, and respond to any discontinuous intervention on the landscape itself such as produced by human intervention in converting rainforest to pasture or conducting selective/clearcut logging operations. The results demonstrate how relative carbon sequestration capacity of the Amazonian ecosystem responds to these controls, and how interpretation of space-time heterogeneities in carbon sequestration depends on a fairly exact quantification of the interacting non-linear properties of photosynthesis in response to incoming solar flux, air-canopy temperatures, and leaf water interception -- and soil respiration in response to upper layer soil temperature and water content. The results also show how the interpretation of the control processes is highly sensitive to the scales at which the surface fluxes are analyzed.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Space-Time Controls on Carbon Sequestration Over Large-Scale Amazon Basin

A major research focus of the LBA Ecology Program is an assessment of the carbon budget and the carbon sequestering capacity of the large scale forest-pasture system that dominates the Amazonia landscape, and its time-space heterogeneity manifest in carbon fluxes across the large scale Amazon basin ecosystem. Quantification of these processes requires a combination of in situ measurements, remotely sensed measurements from space, and a realistically forced hydrometeorological model coupled to a carbon assimilation model, capable of simulating details within the surface energy and water budgets along with the principle modes of photosynthesis and respiration. Here we describe the results of an investigation concerning the space-time controls of carbon sources and sinks distributed over the large scale Amazon basin. The results are derived from a carbon-water-energy budget retrieval system for the large scale Amazon basin, which uses a coupled carbon assimilation-hydrometeorological model as an integrating system, forced by both in situ meteorological measurements and remotely sensed radiation fluxes and precipitation retrieval retrieved from a combination of GOES, SSM/I, TOMS, and TRMM satellite measurements. Brief discussion concerning validation of (a) retrieved surface radiation fluxes and precipitation based on 30-min averaged surface measurements taken at Ji-Parana in Rondonia and Manaus in Amazonas, and (b) modeled carbon fluxes based on tower CO2 flux measurements taken at Reserva Jaru, Manaus and Fazenda Nossa Senhora. The space-time controls on carbon sequestration are partitioned into sets of factors classified by: (1) above canopy meteorology, (2) incoming surface radiation, (3) precipitation interception, and (4) indigenous stomatal processes varied over the different land covers of pristine rainforest, partially, and fully logged rainforests, and pasture lands. These are the principle meteorological, thermodynamical, hydrological, and biophysical control paths which perturb net carbon fluxes and sequestration, produce time-space switching of carbon sources and sinks, undergo modulation through atmospheric boundary layer feedbacks, and respond to any discontinuous intervention on the landscape itself such as produced by human intervention in converting rainforest to pasture or conducting selective/clearcut logging operations.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Building Climate Resilience at NASA Ames

NASA Ames Research Center, located at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary has identified three primary vulnerabilities to changes in climate. The Ames Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) workgroup has studied each of these challenges to operations and the potential exposure of infrastructure and employees to an increased frequency of hazards. Sea level rise inundation scenarios for the SFB Area generally refer to projected scenarios in mean sea level rather than changes in extreme tides that could occur during future storm conditions. In the Summer of 2014, high resolution 3-D mapping of the low lying portion of Ames was performed. Those data are integrated with improved sea level inundation scenarios to identify the buildings, basements and drainage systems potentially affected. We will also identify the impacts of sea level and storm surge effects on transportation to and from the Center. This information will help Center Management develop future Master Plans. Climate change will also lead to changes in temperature, storm frequency and intensity. These changes have potential impacts on localized floods and ecosystems, as well as on electricity and water availability. Over the coming decades, these changes are going to be imposed on top of ongoing land use and land cover changes, especially those deriving from continued urbanization and increase in impervious surface areas. These coupled changes have the potential to create a series of cascading impacts on ecosystems, including changes in primary productivity and disturbance of hydrological properties and increased flood risk.The majority of the electricity used at Ames is supplied by hydroelectric dams, which will be influenced by reductions in precipitation or changes in the timing or phase of precipitation which reduces snow pack. Coupled with increased demand for summertime air conditioning and other cooling needs, NASA Ames is at risk for electricity shortfalls. To assess the anticipated energy usage as climate changes, the Ames CASI team is collecting historical energy usage data from Ames facilities, historical weather data, and projected future weather parameters from the CASI Climate subgroup. This data will be incorporated into the RETScreen model to predict how energy usage at Ames will change over the coming century.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

Peru Water Resources: Integrating NASA Earth Observations into Water Resource Planning and Management in Perus La Libertad Region

Developing countries often struggle with providing water security and sanitation services to their populations. An important aspect of improving security and sanitation is developing a comprehensive understanding of the country's water budget. Water For People, a non-profit organization dedicated to providing clean drinking water, is working with the Peruvian government to develop a water budget for the La Libertad region of Peru which includes the creation of an extensive watershed management plan. Currently, the data archive of the necessary variables to create the water management plan is extremely limited. Implementing NASA Earth observations has bolstered the dataset being used by Water For People, and the METRIC (Mapping EvapoTranspiration at High Resolution and Internalized Calibration) model has allowed for the estimation of the evapotranspiration values for the region. Landsat 8 imagery and the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor onboard Terra were used to derive the land cover information, and were used in conjunction with local weather data of Cascas from Peru's National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (SENAMHI). Python was used to combine input variables and METRIC model calculations to approximate the evapotranspiration values for the Ochape sub-basin of the Chicama River watershed. Once calculated, the evapotranspiration values and methodology were shared Water For People to help supplement their decision support tools in the La Libertad region of Peru and potentially apply the methodology in other areas of need.

Padgett-Vasquez, Steve↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of Aerosol Optical Property and Radiative Effect for the Layer Decoupling Cases over the Northern South China Sea During the 7-SEAS Dongsha Experiment

The aerosol radiative effect can be modulated by the vertical distribution and optical properties of aerosols, particularly when aerosol layers are decoupled. Direct aerosol radiative effects over the northern South China Sea (SCS) were assessed by incorporating an observed data set of aerosol optical properties obtained from the Seven South East Asian Studies (7-SEAS)/Dongsha Experiment into a radiative transfer model. Aerosol optical properties for a two-layer structure of aerosol transport were estimated. In the radiative transfer calculations, aerosol variability (i.e., diversity of source region, aerosol type, and vertical distribution) for the complex aerosol environment was also carefully quantified. The column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500nm was 0.1-0.3 for near-surface aerosols and increased 1-5 times in presence of upper layer biomass-burning aerosols. A case study showed the strong aerosol absorption (single-scattering albedo (omega) approx. = 0.92 at 440nm wavelength) exhibited by the upper layer when associated with predominantly biomass-burning aerosols, and the omega (approx. = 0.95) of near-surface aerosols was greater than that of the upper layer aerosols because of the presence of mixed type aerosols. The presence of upper level aerosol transport could enhance the radiative efficiency at the surface (i.e., cooling) and lower atmosphere (i.e., heating) by up to -13.7 and +9.6W/sq m2 per AOD, respectively. Such enhancement could potentially modify atmospheric stability, can influence atmospheric circulation, as well as the hydrological cycle over the tropical and low-latitude marginal northern SCS.

biomass burning↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Nuclear Spent Fuel Disposal in Clay-Bearing Rock - Process Model Development and Experimental Studies

The DOE R&D program under the Spent Fuel Waste Science Technology (SFWST) campaign has made key progress in modeling and experimental approaches towards the characterization of chemical and physical phenomena that could impact the long-term safety assessment of heat-generating nuclear waste disposition in deep clay/shale/argillaceous rock. International collaboration activities such as heater tests and postmortem analysis of samples recovered from these have elucidated key information regarding changes in the engineered barrier system (EBS) material exposed to years of thermal loads. Chemical and structural analyses of sampled bentonite material from such tests has as well as experiments conducted on these are key to the characterization of thermal effects affecting bentonite clay barrier performance and the extent of sacrificial zones in the EBS during the thermal period. Thermal, hydrologic, and chemical data collected from heater tests and laboratory experiments has been used in the development, validation, and calibration of THMC simulators to model near-field coupled processes. This information leads to the development of simulation approaches (e.g., continuum vs. discrete) to tackle issues related to flow and transport at various scales of the host-rock and EBS design concept. Consideration of direct disposal of large capacity dual-purpose canisters (DPCs) as part of the back-end SNF waste disposition strategy has generated interest in improving our understanding of the effects of elevated temperatures on the EBS design. This is particularly important for backfilled repository concepts where temperature plays a key role in the EBS behavior and long-term performance. This report describes multiple R&D efforts on disposal in argillaceous geologic media through development and application of coupled THMC process models, experimental studies on clay/metal/cement barrier and host-rock (argillite) material interactions, molecular dynamic (MD) simulations of water transport during (swelling) clay dehydration, first-principles studies of metaschoepite (UO 2 corrosion product) stability, and advances in thermodynamic plus surface complexation database development. Drift-scale URL experiments provides key data for testing hydrological-chemical (HC) model involving strong couplings of fluid mixing and barrier material chemical interactions. The THM modeling focuses on heater test experiments in argillite rock and gas migration in bentonite as part of international collaboration activities at underground research laboratories (URLs). In addition, field testing at an URL involves in situ analysis of fault slip behavior and fault permeability. Pore-scale modeling of gas bubble migration is also being investigated within the gas migration modeling effort. Interaction experiments on bentonite samples from heater test under ambient and elevated temperatures permit the evaluation of ion exchange, phase stability, and mineral transformation changes that could impact clay swelling. Advances in the development, testing, and implementation of a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) degradation model coupled with canister corrosion focus on the effects of hydrogen gas generation and its integration with Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA). GDSA integration activities includes evaluation of groundwater chemistries in shale formations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2016

GHRC: NASAs Hazardous Weather Distributed Active Archive Center

The Global Hydrology Resource Center (GHRC; ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov) is one of NASA's twelve Distributed Active Archive Centers responsible for providing access to NASA's Earth science data to users worldwide. Each of NASA's twelve DAACs focuses on a specific science discipline within Earth science, provides data stewardship services and supports its research community's needs. Established in 1991 as the Marshall Space Flight Center DAAC and renamed GHRC in 1997, the data center's original mission focused on the global hydrologic cycle. However, over the years, data holdings, tools and expertise of GHRC have gradually shifted. In 2014, a User Working Group (UWG) was established to review GHRC capabilities and provide recommendations to make GHRC more responsive to the research community's evolving needs. The UWG recommended an update to the GHRC mission, as well as a strategic plan to move in the new direction. After a careful and detailed analysis of GHRC's capabilities, research community needs and the existing data landscape, a new mission statement for GHRC has been crafted: to provide a comprehensive active archive of both data and knowledge augmentation services with a focus on hazardous weather, its governing dynamical and physical processes, and associated applications. Within this broad mandate, GHRC will focus on lightning, tropical cyclones and storm-induced hazards through integrated collections of satellite, airborne, and in-situ data sets. The new mission was adopted at the recent 2015 UWG meeting. GHRC will retain its current name until such time as it has built substantial data holdings aligned with the new mission.

Data Archive↗
NASA NTRS2024

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic‐boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8‐day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. To further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re‐parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

land data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic-boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. Here, to further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re-parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗