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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Notable impact of wildfires in the western United States on weather hazards in the central United States

Increased wildfire events constitute a significant threat to life and property in the United States. Wildfire impact on severe storms and weather hazards is another pathway that threatens society, and our understanding of which is very limited. Here, we use unique modeling developments to explore the effects of wildfires in the western US (mainly California and Oregon) on precipitation and hail in the central US. We find that the western US wildfires notably increase the occurrences of heavy precipitation rates by 38% and significant severe hail (≥2 in.) by 34% in the central United States. Both heat and aerosols from wildfires play an important role. By enhancing surface high pressure and increasing westerly and southwesterly winds, wildfires in the western United States produce ( 1 ) stronger moisture and aerosol transport to the central United States and ( 2 ) larger wind shear and storm-relative helicity in the central United States. Both the meteorological environment more conducive to severe convective storms and increased aerosols contribute to the enhancements of heavy precipitation rates and large hail. Moreover, the local wildfires in the central US also enhance the severity of storms, but their impact is notably smaller than the impact of remote wildfires in California and Oregon because of the lessened severity of the local wildfires. As wildfires are projected to be more frequent and severe in a warmer climate, the influence of wildfires on severe weather in downwind regions may become increasingly important.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of crowding on the diversity of expanding populations

Crowding effects critically impact the self-organization of densely packed cellular assemblies, such as biofilms, solid tumors, and developing tissues. When cells grow and divide, they push each other apart, remodeling the structure and extent of the population’s range. Recent work has shown that crowding has a strong impact on the strength of natural selection. However, the impact of crowding on neutral processes, which controls the fate of new variants as long as they are rare, remains unclear. Here, we quantify the genetic diversity of expanding microbial colonies and uncover signatures of crowding in the site frequency spectrum. By combining Luria–Delbrück fluctuation tests, lineage tracing in a novel microfluidic incubator, cell-based simulations, and theoretical modeling, we find that the majority of mutations arise behind the expanding frontier, giving rise to clones that are mechanically “pushed out” of the growing region by the proliferating cells in front. These excluded-volume interactions result in a clone-size distribution that solely depends on where the mutation first arose relative to the front and is characterized by a simple power law for low-frequency clones. Our model predicts that the distribution depends on a single parameter—the characteristic growth layer thickness—and hence allows estimation of the mutation rate in a variety of crowded cellular populations. Combined with previous studies on high-frequency mutations, our finding provides a unified picture of the genetic diversity in expanding populations over the whole frequency range and suggests a practical method to assess growth dynamics by sequencing populations across spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electron-impact excitation data for W 2+ in support of tungsten spectroscopy and re-deposition measurements for magnetically-confined plasmas

Abstract To better understand plasma wall interactions involving tungsten, accurate atomic structure and electron-impact driven collisional processes for near-neutral ion stages of tungsten are required. Complementing existing work on neutral and singly ionised tungsten, atomic structure and collisional calculations for W 2+ electron-impact excitation have been completed. These excitation calculations are an important component of S/XB coefficients for near-neutral charge states, which may be used to spectroscopically infer re-deposition of tungsten at the plasma-solid boundary of fusion relevant devices. With W 2+ in particular having emission lines that can be observed at ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths, while higher charge states of tungsten are unlikely to have lines possible to observe outside of the vacuum UV range. The atomic structure was generated using the General-purpose Relativistic Atomic Structure Package (GRASP 0 ), implementing the Multi-configuration Dirac Fock approach. This structure was the basis for a subsequent Dirac R -matrix electron-impact excitation calculation to provide Maxwellian averaged rate coefficients. A synthetic spectrum was generated from this data using a collisional-radiative model to predict the strongest W III spectral lines and these lines were compared to emission from the Compact Toroidal Hybrid (CTH) plasma device. Several of the strongest W III lines are observed in CTH and agree well with the modelled line wavelengths and intensities, a table of these lines is provided that could be observed in other devices.

McCann, M. (ORCID:0000000215321240)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do ambient shear and thermal stratification impact wind turbine tip-vortex breakdown?

Modern wind turbines experience uneven inflow conditions across the rotor, due to the ambient flow’s shear and thermal stratification. Such conditions alter the shape and length of turbine wakes and thus impact the loads and power generation of downstream turbines. To this end, understanding the spatial evolution of the individual wakes under different atmospheric conditions is key to controlling and optimising turbine arrays. With this numerical study we aim to obtain a better understanding of the fundamental physics governing the near-wake dynamics of wind turbines under shear and thermal stability, by examining their tip-vortex breakup mechanisms. Our approach considers scale-resolving simulations of a single turbine wake under a linear shear profile as well as the application of harmonic tip perturbations to trigger flow instabilities. For the subsequent analysis we use the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method to extract coherent structures from the flow, and we also calculate mean kinetic energy fluxes to quantify each coherent structure’s contribution to wake recovery. The wake’s helical spiral is found to hinder wake recovery for all studied ambient flow conditions, whereas the mutual inductance instability has positive MKE flux leading to an enhanced wake recovery. Finally, the ambient shear has the largest impact on the local MKE flux with respect to downstream location by changing the shape of the curve and location of extrema, whereas thermal stratification has only a minimal impact on the magnitude of the near-wake local MKE flux distribution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatological analysis of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological extremes in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Abstract Research efforts related to landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) and their hydrological impacts have focused mostly on the continental or regional scales, whereas many coastal management and infrastructure decisions are made at much finer spatial scales. In this context, this study aims to provide local-scale understandings of the climatological characteristics and hydrological impacts of TCs (from 1950 to 2019) over the Mid-Atlantic region defined as the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and Susquehanna River Basin (SRB). The climatological analysis is based on analyzing long-term, spatially distributed observational datasets of hurricane tracks, precipitation, and streamflows. Results suggest that, despite limited contribution of TCs to regional precipitation (<9%), TC is the dominant driver for extreme floods in the southern part of DRB (e.g. tributaries of the Christina River and lower Schuylkill River) and the southwestern portions of SRB (e.g. tributaries of the Lower Susquehanna and Junita River), where TC’s effect on drought alleviation is also comparatively higher. At the basin level, SRB is more susceptible to flooding associated with TCs and prone to drought relative to DRB; however, strong spatial variability of TC’s impact on hydrological extremes is observed within and across the basins. While the TC effect on flood/drought is negligible for the high-elevation, northern part of the region, TC increases the magnitude of the 100 year flood by up to 19.6% in DRB and 53.0% in SRB; the duration of short-term extreme hydrological drought is reduced by TC by up to 25.0% in SRB and 24.7% in DRB, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disturbances in North American boreal forest and Arctic tundra: impacts, interactions, and responses

Ecosystems in the North American Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) experience a diverse set of disturbances associated with wildfire, permafrost dynamics, geomorphic processes, insect outbreaks and pathogens, extreme weather events, and human activity. Climate warming in the ABZ is occurring at over twice the rate of the global average, and as a result the extent, frequency, and severity of these disturbances are increasing rapidly. Disturbances in the ABZ span a wide gradient of spatiotemporal scales and have varying impacts on ecosystem properties and function. However, many ABZ disturbances are relatively understudied and have different sensitivities to climate and trajectories of recovery, resulting in considerable uncertainty in the impacts of climate warming and human land use on ABZ vegetation dynamics and in the interactions between disturbance types. Here we review the current knowledge of ABZ disturbances and their precursors, ecosystem impacts, temporal frequencies, spatial extents, and severity. We also summarize current knowledge of interactions and feedbacks among ABZ disturbances and characterize typical trajectories of vegetation loss and recovery in response to ecosystem disturbance using satellite time-series. We conclude with a summary of critical data and knowledge gaps and identify priorities for future study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States

Climate change impacts on watersheds can potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues where water serves multiple purposes including hydropower. The long-term management of water and energy resources is still mostly approached in a siloed manner at different basins or watersheds, failing to consider the potential impacts that may concurrently affect many regions at once. There is a need for a large-scale hydropower modeling framework that can examine climate impacts across adjoining river basins and balancing authorities (BAs) and provide a periodic assessment at regional to national scales. Expanding from our prior assessment only for the United States (US) federal hydropower plants, we enhance and extend two regional hydropower models to cover over 85% of the total hydropower nameplate capacity and present the first contiguous US-wide assessment of future hydropower production under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6’s high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 emission scenario using an uncertainty-aware multi-model ensemble approach. We present regional hydropower projections, using both BA regions and US Hydrologic Subregions (HUC4s), to consistently inform the energy and water communities for two future periods—the near-term (2020–2039) and the mid-term (2040–2059) relative to a historical baseline period (1980–2019). We find that the median projected changes in annual hydropower generation are typically positive—approximately 5% in the near-term, and 10% in the mid-term. However, since the risk of regional droughts is also projected to increase, future planning cannot overly rely on the ensemble median, as the potential of severe hydropower reductions could be overlooked. The assessment offers an ensemble of future hydropower generation projections, providing regional utilities and power system operators with consistent data to develop drought scenarios, design long duration storage and evaluate energy infrastructure reliability under intensified inter-annual and seasonal variability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying impacts of contact tracing on HIV epidemiological inference from phylogenetic data

Abstract Robust sampling methods are foundational to inferences using phylogenies. Yet the impact of using contact tracing, a type of non-uniform sampling used in public health applications such as infectious disease outbreak investigations, has not been investigated in the molecular epidemiology field. To understand how contact tracing influences a recovered phylogeny, we developed a new simulation tool called SEEPS (Sequence Evolution and Epidemiological Process Simulator) that allows for the simulation of contact tracing and the resulting transmission tree, pathogen phylogeny, and corresponding virus genetic sequences. Importantly, SEEPS takes within-host evolution into account when generating pathogen phylogenies and sequences from transmission histories. Using SEEPS, we demonstrate that contact tracing can significantly impact the structure of the resulting tree, as described by popular tree statistics. Contact tracing generates phylogenies that are less balanced than the underlying transmission process, less representative of the larger epidemiological process, and affects the internal/external branch length ratios that characterize specific epidemiological scenarios. We also examined real data from a 2007–2008 Swedish HIV-1 outbreak and the broader 1998–2010 European HIV-1 epidemic to highlight the differences in contact tracing and expected phylogenies. Aided by SEEPS, we show that the data collection of the Swedish outbreak was strongly influenced by contact tracing even after downsampling, while the broader European Union epidemic showed little evidence of universal contact tracing, agreeing with the known epidemiological information about sampling and spread. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including possible non-uniform sampling schemes when examining phylogenetic trees. For that, SEEPS serves as a useful tool to evaluate such impacts, thereby facilitating better phylogenetic inferences of the characteristics of a disease outbreak. SEEPS is available at https://github.com/MolEvolEpid/SEEPS.

Virology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Resonant Magnetic Perturbations on the Toroidal Location of the Runaway Electron Final Loss Strike Point

It is demonstrated that the peak toroidal impact phase of the post-disruption runaway electrons (REs) can be varied shot-to-shot by means of applied static non-axisymmetric (3D) magnetic fields, or resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs). In the experiments, high-current (500 kA), purged RE plateaus (i.e. low impurity post-disruption plasmas with current carried completely by REs) were terminated on the DIII-D tokamak center post (CP). The global toroidal impact peak of the REs appears to be dominantly set by the toroidal phase of a wall-locked tearing mode, typically (m/n) = (2/1), but sometimes (m/n) = (3/2). In the absence of external RMP, the locked mode reliably locks close to a preferred toroidal phase Φ ≃ 75◦ probably set by intrinsic error fields. With applied RMP, the locked mode and RE impact phase is pushed to a new location. When the tearing mode is (m/n) = (2/1), the phase is well controlled and tracks the applied RMP phase, but in the case of an (m/n) = (3/2) tearing mode, the new phase location is not well controlled. These results could have application in ITER and other fusion power plant (FPP) - sized tokamaks as a method for spreading disruption first wall damage from REs

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-Gaussian transverse momentum fluctuations from impact parameter fluctuations

The transverse momentum per particle, [p t ], fluctuates event by event in ultrarelativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions, for a given multiplicity. These fluctuations are small and approximately Gaussian, but a nonzero skewness has been predicted on the basis of hydrodynamic calculations, and seen experimentally. We argue that the mechanism driving the skewness is that, if the system thermalizes, the mean transverse momentum increases with impact parameter for a fixed collision multiplicity. We postulate that fluctuations are Gaussian at fixed impact parameter, and that non-Gaussianities solely result from impact parameter fluctuations. Using recent data on the variance of [p t ] fluctuations, we make quantitative predictions for their skewness and kurtosis as a function of the collision multiplicity. Here, we predict, in particular, a spectacular increase of the skewness below the knee of the multiplicity distribution, followed by a fast decrease.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the impact of high-precision top-quark pair production data on the structure of the proton at the LHC

The impact of recent LHC top-quark pair production single differential cross section measurements at 13 TeV collision energy on the structure of the proton is explored. In particular, the impact of these high-precision data on the gluon and other parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton at intermediate and large partonic momentum fraction x is analyzed. This study extends the CT18 global analysis framework to include these new data. The interplay between top-quark pair and inclusive jet production as well as other processes at the LHC, is studied. In addition, a study of the impact of scale choice on the theory description of the new 13 TeV t t ¯ measurements is performed. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neutrino-nucleus cross section impacts on neutrino oscillation measurements

The challenges in neutrino-nucleus cross section modeling and its impact on neutrino oscillation experiments are widely recognized. However, a comprehensive and theoretically robust estimation of cross section uncertainties has been lacking, and few studies have quantitatively examined their impact on oscillation measurements. In this work, we evaluate the effect of cross section uncertainties on oscillation parameters using setups inspired by NOvA and DUNE. To characterize these uncertainties, we adopt multiple neutrino-nucleus event generators and simulate a realistic experimental procedure that incorporates near-detector data and near-to-far-detector extrapolation. Our results confirm that cross section uncertainties cannot significantly bias oscillation results in current statistics-dominated experiments like NOvA. However, they could lead to substantial bias for future systematics-dominated experiments like DUNE, even when near-detector data are employed to mitigate uncertainties. These findings underscore the need for further studies on the quantitative impacts of cross section modeling, improved strategies to utilize near-detector data and the PRISM concept, and more robust cross section models to optimize the success of future experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Fully Automatic Method for Rapidly Mapping Impacted Area by Natural Disaster

Deep learning based change detection methods have achieved the state-of-the-art performance in several recent studies. However, such methods usually are supervised, and therefore a large number of training samples is often a requisite. Manually preparing those training samples is not only expensive but also time-consuming, which does not fit the need of rapidly mapping the impacted area caused by nature disaster for further rescue mission and damage assessment. In this study, a fully automatic method was proposed to address the issue by automating training sample generation for mapping the impacted area caused by nature disaster. We used the 2011 tornado event in Joplin, Missouri, US, as an example of its application. The generated impacted area map was both visually and quantitatively evaluated against the ground truth data collected by US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The results show that the map matches well with the FEMA ground truth data with 86% of major-damaged and destroyed buildings identified by FEMA on the ground also detected by this fully automatic framework using very high resolution (VHR) satellite images.

Liu, Tao↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact Analysis of Data Integrity Attacks on FACTS-based Wide-Area Voltage Control System

Energy management system (EMS) consists of several wide-area control applications that serve as a backbone for security, stability, and reliability of the power system. Wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), one of the critical wide-area applications, operates in coordination with local Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices to provide voltage security and optimal management of active and reactive power resources. Since the WAVCS relies on wide-area communication and data sharing devices, possible cybersecurity vulnerabilities have to be addressed to ensure the closed-loop operation of WAVCS. In this paper, we present a methodology for performing an impact analysis of cyber-attacks in WAVCS cybersecurity. In particular, different types of data integrity attacks, such as malicious tripping, fault replay, and signal altering attacks, are considered, and detailed impact analysis is conducted in a testbed environment using the Kundur's four machine two-area system. For performing an impact analysis, the transient voltage stability of the sensitive bus voltage is studied, followed by the quantitative assessment and severity ranking using the voltage profile index. Our experimental evaluation reveals that the data integrity attacks on control signals exhibit a higher attack severity than on the measurement signals. Further, the severity of these attacks varies with nature (static or dynamic), location, and types of attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grid

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production using CO 2 -to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aim to meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO 2 -to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies into power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of an Encoding Method on an Co-simulation Platform for Mitigating the Impact of Unreliable Communication

This report presents a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) based modeling approach for simulating impacts of unreliable communication on the performance of centralized volt-var control and for developing an encoding method to mitigate the impacts. First, an asynchronous real-time HIL simulation platform is introduced to enable multi-rate co-simulation of a distribution system with many inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs). The distribution system is modeled by milliseconds phasor-based models and the DERs are modeled by micro-seconds power electronic models. Communication connections between a centralized volt-var controller (modeled externally to the HIL testbed) and smart inverters are built by implementing Modbus links and the Long Term Evolution network. On this co-simulation platform, an enhanced, augmented Lagrangian multiplier based encoded data recovery (EALM-EDR) algorithm for mitigating the impact of unreliable communication is developed and validated. Simulation results demonstrate the efficacy of using the HIL-based co-simulation platform as a power grid digital twin for developing algorithms that coordinate a large number of heterogeneous control systems through wired and wireless communication links.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drought impacts on microbial trait distribution and feedback to soil carbon cycling

Abstract Quantifying the impact of drought on microbial processes and its consequences for soil carbon cycling is hindered by the lack of underlying mechanistic understanding. Therefore, there is a need to scale up the physiological response to changing water status from individual soil microbes to collective communities across different ecosystems. Here we propose the use of a framework that incorporates trait‐based ecology to link drought‐impacted microbial processes to rates of soil carbon decomposition and stabilisation. We briefly synthesise existing knowledge on the effects of drought on microbial physiology at the individual to community scale, before integrating this understanding within a framework incorporating life‐history strategy, ecological strategy and biochemistry. This framework highlights a dynamic allocation to high yield (Y), resource acquisition (A) and stress tolerance (S) pathways as environmental conditions change. Y‐A‐S strategies represent sets of traits that tend to correlate due to physiological or evolutionary trade‐offs. This framework enables assessment of microbial processes along two key environmental gradients of water and resource availability, both of which are constrained by drought. The variable chemistry of biomass and necromass produced under different physiological strategies in response to drying–rewetting impacts organic matter decomposition and stabilisation in soils, and should also be considered when quantifying soil carbon balance. We highlight that diversion of resources away from microbial growth can alter soil organic matter chemistry and its persistence depending on the kind of microbial compounds produced. To advance such a framework, we highlight avenues of research that would enable the further identification and quantification of traits linked to Y‐A‐S strategies and the physiological outcomes at the community level under drought and rewetting, and conclude by hypothesising how ecosystem‐level changes might feedback on to the soil carbon cycle. A scalable understanding of microbial drought‐response mechanisms affecting soil carbon cycling will transform the way microbial physiology is represented in ecosystem studies. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alterations in soil pH emerge as a key driver of the impact of global change on soil microbial nitrogen cycling: Evidence from a global meta-analysis

Soil nitrogen (N) cycling is critical to the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the impact of global change factors (GCFs) on the microbial mediators of N cycling pathways has yet to be synthesized, and it also remains unclear whether the response of the abundance of N-cycling genes can predict changes in their corresponding processes. We synthesized 8322 paired observations of soil microorganisms related to N cycling from field experiments in which GCFs (climate change and nutrient addition) were manipulated. We found that the abundance of soil microbes and most N-cycling genes were resistant to elevated CO 2 , experimental warming and water addition/reduction; however, N addition and the combination of N addition with other GCFs significantly increased the abundance of ammonia oxidizer bacteria (amoA-AOB). The results indicated that in steady-state (natural) conditions, the main factors driving the global abundance of soil bacteria, archaea and N-cycling genes varied in terms of the contributions of climatic and edaphic factors. However, upon manipulation of GCFs, the induced change in soil pH was the most essential factor associated with changes in the abundance of soil microbes and N-cycling genes. Notably, the changes in ammonia-oxidizing archaea (amoA-AOA) and amoA-AOB genes, in addition to genes involved in denitrification (nirS and nirK), were significantly correlated with the rates of their corresponding processes, but GCF-induced shifts in the potential nitrification rate (PNR) were explained well by changes in the abundance of the amoA-AOB gene under GCFs. In conclusion, our study highlights how ongoing GCFs impact the abundance of soil microbes and N-cycling genes, which might have a profound impact on terrestrial N cycling. Our field-based results provide new insights into the drivers of the abundance of soil microbes and N-cycling genes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗